Search

Climate change has become the greatest threat to the world's ecosystems. Locating and managing areas that contribute to the survival of key species under climate change is critical for the persistence of ecosystems in the future. Here, we identify 'Climate Priority' sites as coral reefs exposed to relatively low levels of climate stress that will be more likely to persist in the future. We present the first analysis of uncertainty in climate change scenarios and models, along with multiple objectives, in a marine spatial planning exercise and offer a comprehensive approach to incorporating uncertainty and trade-offs in any ecosystem. We first described each site using environmental characteristics that are associated with a higher chance of persistence (larval connectivity, hurricane influence, and acute and chronic temperature conditions in the past and the future). Future temperature increases were assessed using downscaled data under four different climate scenarios (SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0 and SSP5 8.5) and 57 model runs. We then prioritized sites for intervention (conservation, improved management or restoration) using robust decision-making approaches that select sites that will have a benign climate under most climate scenarios and models. The modelling work is novel because it solves two important issues. (1) It considers trade-offs between multiple planning objectives explicitly through Pareto analyses and (2) It makes use of all the uncertainty around future climate change. Priority intervention sites identified by the model were verified and refined through local stakeholder engagement including assessments of local threats, ecological conditions and government priorities. The workflow is presented for the Insular Caribbean and Florida, and at the national level for Cuba, Jamaica, Dominican Republic and Haiti. Our approach allows managers to consider uncertainty and multiple objectives for climate-smart spatial management in coral reefs or any ecosystem across the globe.

There is a growing need for coastal and marine restoration, but it is not clear how to pay for it given that environmental funding is low, and national budgets are stretched in response to natural hazards. We use risk-industry methods and find that coral reef and mangrove restoration could yield strong Return on Investment (ROI) for flood risk reduction on shorelines across more than 20 Caribbean countries. These results are robust to changes in discount rates and the timing of restoration benefits. Data on restoration costs are sparse, but the Present Value (PV) of restored natural infrastructure shows that ROI would be positive in many locations even if restoration costs are in the hundreds of thousand per hectare for mangroves and millions per km for reefs. Based on these benefits, we identify significant sources of funding for restoring these natural defenses. This work was supported in part by the Kingfisher Foundation, the World Bank, AXA XL, AXA Research Fund, The Nature Conservancy, and the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) on the basis of a decision adopted by the German Bundestag. We thank Chris Lowrie for help with the figures.

High-resolution benthic habitat data fill an important knowledge gap for many areas of the world and are essential for strategic marine conservation planning and implementing effective resource management. Many countries lack the resources and capacity to create these products, which has hindered the development of accurate ecological baselines for assessing protection needs for coastal and marine habitats and monitoring change to guide adaptive management actions. The PlanetScope (PS) Dove Classic SmallSat constellation delivers high-resolution imagery (4 m) and near-daily global coverage that facilitates the compilation of a cloud-free and optimal water column image composite of the Caribbean’s nearshore environment. These data were used to develop a first-of-its-kind regional thirteen-class benthic habitat map to 30 m water depth using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. A total of 203,676 km2 of shallow benthic habitat across the Insular Caribbean was mapped, representing 5% coral reef, 43% seagrass, 15% hardbottom, and 37% other habitats. Results from a combined major class accuracy assessment yielded an overall accuracy of 80% with a standard error of less than 1% yielding a confidence interval of 78–82%. Of the total area mapped, 15% of these habitats (31,311.7 km2) are within a marine protected or managed area. This information provides a baseline of ecological data for developing and executing more strategic conservation actions, including implementing more effective marine spatial plans, prioritizing and improving marine protected area design, monitoring condition and change for post-storm damage assessments, and providing more accurate habitat data for ecosystem service models.

Over the past decade, coral restoration efforts have increased as reefs continue to decline at unprecedented rates. Identifying suitable coral outplanting locations to maximize coral survival continues to be one of the biggest challenges for restoration practitioners. Here, we demonstrate methods of using derivatives from imaging spectroscopy from the Global Airborne Observatory (GAO) to identify suitable coral outplant sites and report on the survival rates of restored coral at those sites. Outplant sites for a community-based, citizen science outplant event in Bávaro, Dominican Republic, were identified using expert-defined criteria applied to a suitability model from data layers derived from airborne imagery. Photo quadrat analysis of the benthic community confirmed the accuracy of airborne remote sensing maps with live coral cover averaging 3.5–4% and mean algal cover (macro algae and turf) ranging from 28 to 32%. Coral outplant sites were selected at 3–7 m depth with maximized levels of habitat complexity (i.e., rugosity) and live coral cover and minimized levels of macroalgal cover, as predicted by the imaging spectrometer data. In November 2019, 1,722 Acropora cervicornis fragments (80–180 mm in length) were outplanted to these sites. Surveys conducted in January 2020 in four of these sites confirmed that 92% of outplants survived after 3 months. By October 2020 (11 months after outplanting), survivorship remained above 76%. These results demonstrate higher than average success rates for coral outplant survival for this species. An online tool was developed to enable replication and facilitate future selection of coral restoration sites. Our objective is to present a case study that uses GAO-derived map products within a suitability model framework to provide a quantitative and replicable method for selecting coral restoration sites with the goal of increasing outplant survival over time.

The Caribbean is affected by climate change due to an increase in the variability, frequency, and intensity of extreme weather events. When coupled with sea level rise (SLR), poor urban development design, and loss of habitats, severe flooding often impacts the coastal zone. In order to protect citizens and adapt to a changing climate, national and local governments need to investigate their coastal vulnerability and climate change risks. To assess flood and inundation risk, some of the critical data are topography, bathymetry, and socio-economic. We review the datasets available for these parameters in Jamaica (and specifically Old Harbour Bay) and assess their pros and cons in terms of resolution and costs. We then examine how their use can affect the evaluation of the number of people and the value of infrastructure flooded in a typical sea level rise/flooding assessment. We find that there can be more than a three-fold difference in the estimate of people and property flooded under 3m SLR. We present an inventory of available environmental and economic datasets for modeling storm surge/SLR impacts and ecosystem-based coastal protection benefits at varying scales. We emphasize the importance of the careful selection of the appropriately scaled data for use in models that will inform climate adaptation planning, especially when considering sea level rise, in the coastal zone. Without a proper understanding of data needs and limitations, project developers and decision-makers overvalue investments in adaptation science which do not necessarily translate into effective adaptation implementation. Applying these datasets to estimate sea level rise and storm surge in an adaptation project in Jamaica, we found that less costly and lower resolution data and models provide up to three times lower coastal risk estimates than more expensive data and models, indicating that investments in better resolution digital elevation mapping (DEM) data are needed for targeted local-level decisions. However, we also identify that, with this general rule of thumb in mind, cost-effective, national data can be used by planners in the absence of high-resolution data to support adaptation action planning, possibly saving critical climate adaptation budgets for project implementation.