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BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic evidence suggests an inverse association between sun exposure and follicular lymphoma risk. METHODS: We conducted an Australian population-based family case-control study based on 666 cases and 459 controls (288 related, 171 unrelated). Participants completed a lifetime residence and work calendar and recalled outdoor hours on weekdays, weekends, and holidays in the warmer and cooler months at ages 10, 20, 30, and 40 years, and clothing types worn in the warmer months. We used a group-based trajectory modeling approach to identify outdoor hour trajectories over time and examined associations with follicular lymphoma risk using logistic regression. RESULTS: We observed an inverse association between follicular lymphoma risk and several measures of high lifetime sun exposure, particularly intermittent exposure (weekends, holidays). Associations included reduced risk with increasing time outdoors on holidays in the warmer months [highest category OR = 0.56; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.42-0.76; Ptrend < 0.01], high outdoor hours on weekends in the warmer months (highest category OR = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.52-0.96), and increasing time outdoors in the warmer and cooler months combined (highest category OR = 0.66; 95% CI, 0.50-0.91; Ptrend 0.01). Risk was reduced for high outdoor hour maintainers in the warmer months across the decade years (OR = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.53-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: High total and intermittent sun exposure, particularly in the warmer months, may be protective against the development of follicular lymphoma. IMPACT: Although sun exposure is not recommended as a cancer control policy, confirming this association may provide insights regarding the future control of this intractable malignancy.

BACKGROUND: While remaining incurable, median overall survival for MM now exceeds 5 years. Yet few studies have investigated how modifiable lifestyle factors influence survival. We investigate whether adiposity, diet, alcohol, or smoking are associated with MM-related fatality. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We recruited 760 incident cases of MM via cancer registries in two Australian states during 2010-2016. Participants returned questionnaires on health and lifestyle. Follow-up ended in 2020. Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for lifestyle exposures and risk of all-cause and MM-specific fatality. RESULTS: Higher pre-diagnosis Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI) scores were associated with reduced MM-specific fatality (per 10-unit score, HR = 0.84, 95%CI = 0.70-0.99). Pre-diagnosis alcohol consumption was inversely associated with MM-specific fatality, compared with nondrinkers (0.1-20 g per day, HR = 0.59, 95%CI = 0.39-0.90; >20 g per day, HR = 0.67, 95%CI = 0.40-1.13). Tobacco smoking was associated with increased all-cause fatality compared with never smoking (former smokers: HR = 1.44, 95%CI = 1.10-1.88; current smokers: HR = 1.30, 95%CI = 0.80-2.10). There was no association between pre-enrollment body mass index (BMI) and MM-specific or all-cause fatality. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support established recommendations for healthy diets and against smoking. Higher quality diet, as measured by the AHEI, may improve survival post diagnosis with MM.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to examine the relationship between occupational exposure to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MFs) and follicular lymphoma (FL) risk. METHODS: We conducted a family case-control study between 2011 and 2016 in Australia and included 681 cases. Controls were either a family member of cases (related (n=294), unrelated (n=179)) or were unrelated recruited for a similarly designed Australian multiple myeloma study (n=711). We obtained detailed job histories using lifetime work calendars. We assigned exposure to ELF-MFs using an enhanced job exposure matrix, with a lag period of 10 years. We examined associations with FL risk using logistic regression accounting for relatedness between cases and controls. We performed sensitivity analyses including by control type, by sex, complete case analyses, ELF-MF exposure percentiles in addition to quartiles, ELF-MF exposure in the maximum exposed job, a shorter lag period (1 year) and the cumulative exposure in the most recent time period (1-9 years). RESULTS: We observed no association with the average intensity, duration or lifetime cumulative exposure to occupational ELF-MF exposure in the primary or sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings do not support an association between occupational ELF-MF exposure and FL risk. Although the inclusion of family members as part of the larger control group may have biased our risk estimates towards the null, findings were similar in sensitivity analyses restricted to cases and unrelated controls. Further research incorporating enhanced exposure assessment to ELF-MF is warranted to inform occupational safety regulations and any potential role in lymphomagenesis.

BACKGROUND: The association between dietary intake of foods of animal origin and follicular lymphoma (FL) risk and survival is uncertain. In this study, we examined the relationship between dietary intake of dairy foods and fats, meat, fish and seafoods, and the likelihood of FL and survival. METHODS: We conducted a population-based family case-control study in Australia between 2011 and 2016 and included 710 cases, 303 siblings and 186 spouse/partner controls. We assessed dietary intake of animal products prior to diagnosis (the year before last) using a structured food frequency questionnaire and followed-up cases over a median of 6.9 years using record linkage to national death data. We examined associations with the likelihood of FL using logistic regression and used Cox regression to assess association with all-cause and FL-specific mortality among cases. RESULTS: We observed an increased likelihood of FL with increasing daily quantity of oily fish consumption in the year before last (highest category OR = 1.96, CI = 1.02-3.77; p-trend 0.06) among cases and sibling controls, but no associations with spouse/partner controls. We found no association between the likelihood of FL and the consumption of other types of fish or seafood, meats or dairy foods and fats. In FL cases, we found no association between meat or oily fish intake and all-cause or FL-specific mortality. CONCLUSION: Our study showed suggestive evidence of a positive association between oily fish intake and the likelihood of FL, but findings varied by control type. Further investigation of the potential role of environmental contaminants in oily fish on FL etiology is warranted.

BACKGROUND: We quantified the individual and joint contribution of contemporaneous causal behavioural exposures on the future burden of oesophageal and stomach cancers and their subtypes and assessed whether these burdens differ between population groups in Australia, as such estimates are currently lacking. METHODS: We combined hazard ratios from seven pooled Australian cohorts (N = 367,058) linked to national cancer and death registries with exposure prevalence from the 2017-2018 National Health Survey to estimate Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), accounting for competing risk of death. RESULTS: Current and past smoking explain 35.2% (95% CI = 11.7-52.4%), current alcohol consumption exceeding three drinks/day 15.7% (95% CI = 0.9-28.4%), and these exposures jointly 41.4% (95% CI = 19.8-57.3%) of oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas in Australia. Current and past smoking contribute 38.2% (95% CI = 9.4-57.9%), obesity 27.0% (95% CI = 0.6-46.4%), and these exposures jointly 54.4% (95% CI = 25.3-72.1%) of oesophageal adenocarcinomas. Overweight and obesity explain 36.1% (95% CI = 9.1-55.1%), current and past smoking 24.2% (95% CI = 4.2-40.0%), and these exposures jointly 51.2% (95% CI = 26.3-67.8%) of stomach cardia cancers. Several population groups had a significantly higher smoking-attributable oesophageal cancer burden, including men and those consuming excessive alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking is the leading preventable behavioural cause of oesophageal cancers and overweight/obesity of stomach cancers.

Multiple myeloma (MM) is the second most common hematological cancer and causes significant mortality and morbidity. Knowledge regarding modifiable risk factors for MM remains limited. This analysis of an Australian population‐based case–control family study investigates whether smoking or alcohol consumption is associated with risk of MM and related diseases. Incident cases (n = 789) of MM were recruited via cancer registries in Victoria and New South Wales. Controls (n = 1,113) were either family members of cases (n = 696) or controls recruited for a similarly designed study of renal cancers (n = 417). Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using unconditional multivariable logistic regression. Heavy intake (>20 g ethanol/day) of alcohol had a lower risk of MM compared with nondrinkers (OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.50–0.93), and there was an inverse dose–response relationship for average daily alcohol intake (OR per 10 g ethanol per day = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.86–0.99); there was no evidence of an interaction with sex. There was no evidence of an association with MM risk for smoking‐related exposures (p > 0.18). The associations between smoking and alcohol with MM are similar to those with non‐Hodgkin lymphoma. Further research into potential underlying mechanisms is warranted.

Thyroid cancer incidence and the prevalence of overweight and obesity are increasing, but the future thyroid cancer burden attributable to contemporary levels of overweight and obesity has not been evaluated before. We quantified this burden in Australia, and assessed whether the overweight/obesity-attributable burden differed by sex or other population subgroupings. We estimated the strength of the associations of overweight and obesity with thyroid cancer with adjusted proportional hazards models using pooled data from seven Australian cohorts (N = 367 058) with 431 thyroid cancer cases ascertained from linked national cancer registry data during a maximum 22-year follow-up. We combined these estimates with nationally representative 2017 to 2018 estimates of overweight and obesity prevalence to estimate population attributable fractions (PAFs) of future thyroid cancers attributable to overweight and obesity, accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. Contemporary levels of overweight and obesity explain 18.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.2%-30.2%), and obesity alone 13.7% (95% CI: 5.2%-21.4%), of the future thyroid cancer burden. The obesity-attributable thyroid cancer burden is 21.4% (95% CI: 2.8%-36.5%) for men and 10.1% (95% CI: 0.8%-18.6%) for women. Were the currently obese overweight instead, 9.9% (95% CI: 1.0%-18.1%) of thyroid cancers could be avoided. The relative overweight/obesity-attributable burden is higher for those consuming on average more than two alcoholic drinks per day (63.4%) and for those who are not married/co-habiting (33.2%). In conclusion, avoiding excess weight, especially obesity, should be a priority for thyroid cancer prevention. Further studies, with findings stratified by tumour size, may reveal the potential role of overdiagnosis in our results.

PURPOSE: High-grade disease accounts for ~ 70% of all glioma, and has a high mortality rate. Few modifiable exposures are known to be related to glioma risk or mortality. METHODS: We examined associations between lifetime physical activity and physical activity at different ages (15-18 years, 19-29 years, 30-39 years, last 10 years) with the risk of glioma diagnosis, using data from a hospital-based family case-control study (495 cases; 371 controls). We followed up cases over a median of 25 months to examine whether physical activity was associated with all-cause mortality. Physical activity and potential confounders were assessed by self-administered questionnaire. We examined associations between physical activity (metabolic equivalent [MET]-h/wk) and glioma risk using unconditional logistic regression and with all-cause mortality in cases using Cox regression. RESULTS: We noted a reduced risk of glioma for the highest (≥ 47 MET-h/wk) versus lowest (< 24 METh/wk) category of physical activity for lifetime activity (OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.38-0.89) and at 15-18 years (OR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.39-0.83). We did not observe any association between physical activity and all-cause mortality (HR for lifetime physical activity = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.64-1.29). CONCLUSION: Our findings are consistent with previous research that suggested physical activity during adolescence might be protective against glioma. Engaging in physical activity during adolescence has many health benefits; this health behavior may also offer protection against glioma.

The association between smoking and alcohol consumption and follicular lymphoma (FL) incidence and clinical outcome is uncertain. We conducted a population-based family case-control study (709 cases: 490 controls) in Australia. We assessed lifetime history of smoking and recent alcohol consumption and followed-up cases (median = 83 months). We examined associations with FL risk using unconditional logistic regression and with all-cause and FL-specific mortality of cases using Cox regression. FL risk was associated with ever smoking (OR = 1.38, 95%CI = 1.08−1.74), former smoking (OR = 1.36, 95%CI = 1.05−1.77), smoking initiation before age 17 (OR = 1.47, 95%CI = 1.06−2.05), the highest categories of cigarettes smoked per day (OR = 1.44, 95%CI = 1.04−2.01), smoking duration (OR = 1.53, 95%CI = 1.07−2.18) and pack-years (OR = 1.56, 95%CI = 1.10−2.22). For never smokers, FL risk increased for those exposed indoors to >2 smokers during childhood (OR = 1.84, 95%CI = 1.11−3.04). For cases, current smoking and the highest categories of smoking duration and lifetime cigarette exposure were associated with elevated all-cause mortality. The hazard ratio for current smoking and FL-specific mortality was 2.97 (95%CI = 0.91−9.72). We found no association between recent alcohol consumption and FL risk, all-cause or FL-specific mortality. Our study showed consistent evidence of an association between smoking and increased FL risk and possibly also FL-specific mortality. Strengthening anti-smoking policies and interventions may reduce the population burden of FL.

Objectives: The aim of the study was to describe time trends in cancer incidence in people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Australia between 1982 and 2012. Methods: A population-based prospective study was conducted using data linkage between the national HIV and cancer registries. Invasive cancers identified in PLHIV were grouped into AIDS-defining cancers (ADCs), infection-related non-ADCs (NADCs), and non-infection-related NADCs. Crude and age-standardized incidence rates of cancers were calculated and compared over five time periods: 1982–1995, 1996–1999, 2000–2004, 2005–2008 and 2009–2012, roughly reflecting advances in HIV antiretroviral therapy. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) compared with the Australian general population were calculated for each time period. Generalized linear models were developed to assess time trends in crude and age-standardized incidences. Results: For ADCs, the crude and age-standardized incidences of Kaposi sarcoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma substantially declined over time (P-trend < 0.001 for all) but SIRs remained significantly elevated. For infection-related NADCs, there were significant increases in the crude incidences of anal, liver and head and neck cancers. Age-standardized incidences increased for anal cancer (P-trend = 0.002) and liver cancer (P-trend < 0.001). SIRs were significantly elevated for anal cancer, liver cancer and Hodgkin lymphoma. For non-infection-related NADCs, the crude incidence of colorectal, lung and prostate cancers increased over time, but age-standardized incidences remained stable. Conclusions: Continuous improvements and high coverage of antiretroviral therapy have reduced the incidence of ADCs in PLHIV in Australia. Clinical monitoring of anal and liver cancers in people living with HIV should be performed, given the increasing incidence of these cancers.

Background: The etiology of follicular lymphoma (FL), a common non-Hodgkin lymphoma subtype, is largely unknown. Objective: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies examining the relationship between occupational exposures and FL risk. Methods: We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, and Web of Science for eligible observational studies examining job titles or occupational exposures prior to January 1, 2020. We performed a narrative synthesis and used random-effects models to generate meta-estimates of relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for exposures reported by three or more studies. Results: Fifty-eight studies were eligible. Ten cohort and 37 case-control studies quantified FL risk in relation to any exposure to one or more occupational groups or agents. Eight cohort and 19 case-control studies examined dose-response relationships. We found evidence of a positive association with increasing plasma concentration of dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE; meta-RR = 1.51, 95%CI = 0.99, 2.31; I2 = 0.0%) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs; meta-RR = 1.47, 95%CI = 0.97, 2.24; I2 = 8.6%). We observed a positive association with exposure to any solvent (meta-RR = 1.16, 95%CI = 1.00, 1.34; I2 = 0.0%) and chlorinated solvents (meta-RR = 1.35, 95%CI = 1.09, 1.68; I2 = 0.0%). Single studies reported a significant positive dose-response association for exposure to any pesticide, hexachlorobenzene, any organophosphate, diazinon, metolachlor, carbaryl, lindane, trichloroethylene, oils/greases, and extremely low-frequency magnetic fields. Job title-only analyses suggested increased risk for medical doctors and spray painters, and decreased risk for bakers and teachers. Overall, studies demonstrated low risk of bias, but most studies examined small numbers of exposed cases. Conclusions: Current evidence indicates a positive association between FL and occupational exposure to DDE, PCBs, any solvent and chlorinated solvents. O

This article synthesises the current evidence on the risk of de novo extrahepatic cancer in people living with a liver transplant after hepatocellular carcinoma, the risk factors for cancer, and the recommended approaches to cancer prevention and surveillance. People living with a transplanted liver have an elevated risk of cancer and cancer death, and the indication for transplantation does not markedly alter the cancer risk. The excess risk of cancer is double that of the age-and sex-matched general population. Virus-related cancers, especially non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Kaposi sarcoma, Merkel cell carcinoma, oral, and anogenital cancers occur at increased risk, as do cancers causally associated with high prior sun exposure, smoking and excessive alcohol consumption, including skin, oesophageal, larynx, lung, kidney, and bladder cancer. The risk of incident breast and prostate cancer is not increased. Cancer-related deaths largely mirror that for cancer incidence, and extend to include the more common malignancies such as breast, colorectal, prostate cancer and non-melanoma skin cancer. As medical immunosuppression is the principal risk factor for cancer, the regimen should be reviewed on a regular basis to achieve immunosuppression minimisation. An individual, risk-based approach to cancer screening according to test characteristics and personal and family cancer history, medical history, lifestyle factors, and life expectancy is recommended. Multicomponent interventions may achieve the best results in supporting the adoption and maintenance of cancer risk-reducing behaviours. Regular, empowering patient counselling and education is a cornerstone for the care of people living with a liver transplant.

Australia spends more than $20 billion annually on medicines, delivering significant health benefits for the population. However, inappropriate prescribing and medicine use also result in harm to individuals and populations, and waste of precious health resources. Medication data linked with other routine collections enable evidence generation in pharmacoepidemiology; the science of quantifying the use, effectiveness and safety of medicines in real-world clinical practice. This review details the history of medicines policy and data access in Australia, the strengths of existing data sources, and the infrastructure and governance enabling and impeding evidence generation in the field. Currently, substantial gaps persist with respect to cohesive, contemporary linked data sources supporting quality use of medicines, effectiveness and safety research; exemplified by Aus-tralia’s limited capacity to contribute to the global effort in real-world studies of vaccine and dis-ease-modifying treatments for COVID-19. We propose a roadmap to bolster the discipline, and population health more broadly, underpinned by a distinct capability governing and streamlining access to linked data assets for accredited researchers. Robust real-world evidence generation requires current data roadblocks to be remedied as a matter of urgency to deliver efficient and equitable health care and improve the health and well-being of all Australians.

Australia spends more than $20 billion annually on medicines, delivering significant health benefits for the population. However, inappropriate prescribing and medicine use also result in harm to individuals and populations, and waste of precious health resources. Medication data linked with other routine collections enable evidence generation in pharmacoepidemiology; the science of quantifying the use, effectiveness and safety of medicines in real-world clinical practice. This review details the history of medicines policy and data access in Australia, the strengths of existing data sources, and the infrastructure and governance enabling and impeding evidence generation in the field. Currently, substantial gaps persist with respect to cohesive, contemporary linked data sources supporting quality use of medicines, effectiveness and safety research; exemplified by Australia's limited capacity to contribute to the global effort in real-world studies of vaccine and disease-modifying treatments for COVID-19. We propose a roadmap to bolster the discipline, and population health more broadly, underpinned by a distinct capability governing and streamlining access to linked data assets for accredited researchers. Robust real-world evidence generation requires current data roadblocks to be remedied as a matter of urgency to deliver efficient and equitable health care and improve the health and well-being of all Australians.

Purpose: To investigate the relationship between follicular lymphoma (FL) risk and common modifiable lifestyle factors, specifically smoking, alcohol, body mass index (BMI), and hair dye use. Methods: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies published prior to 01 January 2020. We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, and Web of Science and the reference lists of original studies and review articles. We used random-effects models to generate meta-estimates of relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results: Twenty-four cohort and ten case–control studies were eligible. Ten articles examined smoking, 11 alcohol, 13 BMI, and four hair dye use and risk of FL. The meta-estimate for current smoking was 1.11 (95% CI 0.92–1.35; I2 = 51%) and there was no significant dose–response per 5-year increase in duration (p-trend = 0.087). Current alcohol intake was inversely associated with FL risk (meta-RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.81–0.94; I2 = 0%) and there was a significant dose–response per 5 drinks/week increase in intake (p-trend = 0.008). There was no association with 5 kg/m2 increase in early adulthood BMI (meta-RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.91–1.20; I2 = 7%) or being overweight (meta-RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.92–1.07; I2 = 0%) or obese (meta-RR 1.08, 95% CI 0.99–1.17; I2 = 0%) as an adult. Hair dye use before 1980 was positively associated with FL risk (meta-RR 1.66, 95% CI 1.22–2.25; I2 = 55%) and no evidence of effect after 1980. Conclusion: We found consistent evidence of an inverse association between current alcohol intake and FL risk, and a significant increased risk with hair dye use before 1980. The evidence for smoking is heterogeneous, but most studies did not support an association. Further research is required to understand the mechanisms underlying these associations and the potential for prevention strategies.

Parity is a potential confounder of the association between medically assisted reproduction (MAR) and health outcomes. This concept paper describes a population-based record linkage study design for selecting MAR-unexposed women matched to the parity of MAR-exposed women, at the time of the first exposure to MAR. Women exposed to MAR were identified from claims for government subsidies for relevant procedures and prescription medicines, linked to perinatal records. Women unexposed to MAR were identified from linked perinatal and death records, matched to exposed women by age, rurality, age of first child (if any) and parity at the date of first MAR. The availability of a longitudinal, whole-of-population dataset (“population spine”) based on enrolments in Australia's universal health insurance scheme was a critical design element. The example application examines cancer risk in women after exposure to MAR. Parity is a confounder in this setting because it is associated with MAR and hormone-sensitive cancers.

Background Cancer of unknown primary (CUP) is a late-stage malignancy with poor prognosis, but we know little about what diagnostic tests and procedures people with CUP receive prior to diagnosis. The purpose of this study was to determine how health service utilisation prior to diagnosis for people with cancer-registry notified CUP differs from those notified with metastatic cancer of known primary. Methods We identified people with a cancer registry notification of CUP (n = 327) from the 45 and Up Study, a prospective cohort of 266,724 people 45 years in New South Wales, Australia, matched with up to three controls with a diagnosis of metastatic cancer of known primary (n = 977). Baseline questionnaire data were linked to population health data to identify all health service use, diagnostic tests, and procedures in the month of diagnosis and 3 months prior. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results After adjusting for age and educational attainment, people with a cancer-registry notified CUP diagnosis were more likely to be an aged care resident (OR = 2.78, 95%CI 1.37-5.63), have an emergency department visit (OR = 1.65, 95%CI 1.23-2.21), serum tumor marker tests (OR = 1.51, 95%CI 1.12-2.04), or a cytology test without immunohistochemistry (OR = 2.01, 95%CI 1.47-2.76), and less likely to have a histopathology test without immunohistochemistry (OR = 0.43, 95%CI 0.31-0.59). Neither general practitioner, specialist, allied health practitioner or nurse consultations, hospitalisations, nor imaging procedures were associated with a CUP diagnosis. Conclusions The health service and diagnostic pathway to diagnosis differs markedly for people notified with CUP compared to those with metastatic cancer of known primary. While these differences may indicate missed opportunities for earlier detection and appropriate management, for some patients they may be clinically appropriate.

Although the evidence is not consistent, epidemiologic studies have suggested that taller adult height may be associated with an increased risk of some non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) subtypes. Height is largely determined by genetic factors, but how these genetic factors may contribute to NHL risk is unknown. We investigated the relationship between genetic determinants of height and NHL risk using data from eight genome-wide association studies (GWAS) comprising 10,629 NHL cases, including 3,857 diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), 2,847 follicular lymphoma (FL), 3,100 chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), and 825 marginal zone lymphoma (MZL) cases, and 9,505 controls of European ancestry. We evaluated genetically predicted height by constructing polygenic risk scores using 833 height-associated SNPs. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for association between genetically determined height and the risk of four NHL subtypes in each GWAS and then used fixed-effect meta-analysis to combine subtype results across studies. We found suggestive evidence between taller genetically determined height and increased CLL risk (OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.00-1.17, p = 0.049), which was slightly stronger among women (OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.01-1.31, p = 0.036). No significant associations were observed with DLBCL, FL, or MZL. Our findings suggest that there may be some shared genetic factors between CLL and height, but other endogenous or environmental factors may underlie reported epidemiologic height associations with other subtypes.

Substantial changes in the prevalence of the principal kidney and bladder cancer risk factors, smoking (both cancers) and body fatness (kidney cancer), have occurred but the contemporary cancer burden attributable to these factors has not been evaluated. We quantified the kidney and bladder cancer burden attributable to individual and joint exposures and assessed whether these burdens differ between population subgroups. We linked pooled data from seven Australian cohorts (N = 367,058) to national cancer and death registries and estimated the strength of the associations between exposures and cancer using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from representative contemporaneous health surveys. We combined these estimates to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. During the first 10-year follow-up, 550 kidney and 530 bladder cancers were diagnosed and over 21,000 people died from any cause. Current levels of overweight and obesity explain 28.8% (CI = 17.3-38.7%), current or past smoking 15.5% (CI = 6.0-24.1%) and these exposures jointly 39.6% (CI = 27.5-49.7%) of the kidney cancer burden. Current or past smoking explains 44.4% (CI = 35.4-52.1%) of the bladder cancer burden, with 24.4% attributable to current smoking. Ever smoking explains more than half (53.4%) of the bladder cancer burden in men, and the burden potentially preventable by quitting smoking is highest in men (30.4%), those aged <65 years (28.0%) and those consuming >2 standard alcoholic drinks/day (41.2%). In conclusion, large fractions of kidney and bladder cancers in Australia are preventable by behavior change.

Background: The relationship between comorbid disease and health service use and risk of cancer of unknown primary site (CUP)is uncertain. Methods: A prospective cohort of 266,724 people aged 45 years and over in New South Wales, Australia. Baseline questionnaire data were linked to cancer registration, health service records 4–27 months prior to diagnosis, and mortality data. We compared individuals with incident registry-notified CUP (n = 327; 90% C80)to two sets of randomly selected controls (3:1): (i)incident metastatic cancer of known primary site (n = 977)and (ii)general cohort population (n = 981). We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs)and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: In fully adjusted models incorporating sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, people with cancer registry-notified CUP were more likely to have fair compared with excellent self-rated overall health (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.01–3.14)and less likely to self-report anxiety (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.24−0.97)than those registered with metastatic cancer of known primary. Compared to general cohort population controls, people registered with CUP were more likely to have poor rather than excellent self-rated overall health (OR 6.22, 95% CI 1.35–28.6), less likely to self-report anxiety (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.12−0.63), and more likely to have a history of diabetes (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.15–3.10)or cancer (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.03–2.57). Neither tertiary nor community-based health service use independently predicted CUP risk. Conclusion: Low self-rated health may be a flag for undiagnosed cancer, and an investigation of its clinical utility in primary care appears warranted.

Background:Anal cancer incidence increased markedly in people living with HIV (PLWHIV) after the introduction of HAART, but in a few setting settings, recent declines have been reported. We report the incidence and time trends of anal cancer in PLWHIV in Australia.Study design:A data linkage study between the National HIV Registries and the Australian Cancer Database.Methods:Cases of anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC) in Australians aged 16 years and above diagnosed with HIV between 1982 and 2012 were identified. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated to compare incidence with that of the general population. Poisson regression models were developed to describe the time trends of ASCC over time and to compare ASCC risk within subgroups of PLWHIV.Results:Among 28696 individuals, a total of 129 cases of ASCC were identified. The crude incidence was 36.3 per 100000 person-years and it increased sharply from 14.8 to 62.1 per 100000 person-years between 1982-1995 and 2009-2012 (P trend <0.001). The SIR was 35.3 (95% confidence interval 29.5-42.0), and there was an inverse association between SIR and increasing age (P trend <0.001). In multivariate analyses, ASCC incidence was significantly higher in recent years (P trend <0.001), in those who acquired HIV through male homosexual contact (P=0.002), and in those who had a history of AIDS (P<0.001).Conclusion:PLWHIV in Australia are at markedly higher risk of anal cancer. Unlike in some industrialized countries with a mature HIV epidemic, the incidence of anal cancer is still increasing in this population in Australia.

Background: Little is known about the risk factors for cancer of unknown primary site (CUP). We examined the demographic, social and lifestyle risk factors for CUP in a prospective cohort of 266,724 people aged 45 years and over in New South Wales, Australia. Methods: Baseline questionnaire data were linked to cancer registration, hospitalisation, emergency department admission, and mortality data. We compared individuals with incident cancer registry-notified CUP (n = 327) to two sets of controls randomly selected (3:1) using incidence density sampling with replacement: (i) incident cancer registry-notified metastatic cancer of known primary site (n = 977) and (ii) general cohort population (n = 981). We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: In a fully adjusted model incorporating self-rated overall health and comorbidity, people diagnosed with CUP were more likely to be older (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.04–1.07 per year) and more likely to have low educational attainment (OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.24–2.53) than those diagnosed with metastatic cancer of known primary. Similarly, compared to general cohort population controls, people diagnosed with CUP were older (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.08–1.12 per year), of low educational attainment (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.08–2.64), and current (OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.81–6.47) or former (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.33–2.86) smokers. Conclusion: The consistent association with educational attainment suggests low health literacy may play a role in CUP diagnosis. These findings highlight the need to develop strategies to achieve earlier identification of diagnostically challenging malignancies in people with low health literacy.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the burden of pancreatic cancer in Australia attributable to modifiable exposures, particularly smoking. DESIGN: Prospective pooled cohort study. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Seven prospective Australian study cohorts (total sample size, 365 084 adults); participant data linked to national registries to identify cases of pancreatic cancer and deaths. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Associations between exposures and incidence of pancreatic cancer, estimated in a proportional hazards model, adjusted for age, sex, study, and other exposures; future burden of pancreatic cancer avoidable by changes in exposure estimated as population attributable fractions (PAFs) for whole population and for specific population subgroups with a method accounting for competing risk of death. RESULTS: There were 604 incident cases of pancreatic cancer during the first 10 years of follow-up. Current and recent smoking explained 21.7% (95% CI, 13.8-28.9%) and current smoking alone explained 15.3% (95% CI, 8.6-22.6%) of future pancreatic cancer burden. This proportion of the burden would be avoidable over 25 years were current smokers to quit and there were no new smokers. The burden attributable to current smoking is greater for men (23.9%; 95% CI, 13.3-33.3%) than for women (7.2%; 95% CI, -0.4% to 14.2%; P = 0.007) and for those under 65 (19.0%; 95% CI, 8.1-28.6%) than for older people (6.6%; 95% CI, 1.9-11.1%; P = 0.030). There were no independent relationships between body mass index or alcohol consumption and pancreatic cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies that reduce the uptake of smoking and encourage current smokers to quit could substantially reduce the future incidence of pancreatic cancer in Australia, particularly among men.

Estimates of the future breast cancer burden preventable through modifications to current behaviours are lacking. We assessed the effect of individual and joint behaviour modifications on breast cancer burden for premenopausal and postmenopausal Australian women, and whether effects differed between population subgroups. We linked pooled data from six Australian cohort studies (n = 214,536) to national cancer and death registries, and estimated the strength of the associations between behaviours causally related to cancer incidence and death using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from representative health surveys. We combined these estimates to calculate Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and compared PAFs for population subgroups. During the first 10 years follow-up, there were 640 incident breast cancers for premenopausal women, 2,632 for postmenopausal women, and 8,761 deaths from any cause. Of future breast cancers for premenopausal women, any regular alcohol consumption explains 12.6% (CI = 4.3-20.2%), current use of oral contraceptives for ≥5 years 7.1% (CI = 0.3-13.5%), and these factors combined 18.8% (CI = 9.1-27.4%). Of future breast cancers for postmenopausal women, overweight or obesity (BMI ≥25 kg/m2 ) explains 12.8% (CI = 7.8-17.5%), current use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) 6.9% (CI = 4.8-8.9%), any regular alcohol consumption 6.6% (CI = 1.5-11.4%), and these factors combined 24.2% (CI = 17.6-30.3%). The MHT-related postmenopausal breast cancer burden varied by body fatness, alcohol consumption and socio-economic status, the body fatness-related postmenopausal breast cancer burden by alcohol consumption and educational attainment, and the alcohol-related postmenopausal breast cancer burden by breast feeding history. Our results provide evidence to support targeted and population-level cancer control activities.

Epidemiologic studies show an increased risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in patients with autoimmune disease (AD), due to a combination of shared environmental factors and/or genetic factors, or a causative cascade: chronic inflammation/antigen-stimulation in one disease leads to another. Here we assess shared genetic risk in genome-wide-association-studies (GWAS). Secondary analysis of GWAS of NHL subtypes (chronic lymphocytic leukemia, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, follicular lymphoma, and marginal zone lymphoma) and ADs (rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and multiple sclerosis). Shared genetic risk was assessed by (a) description of regional genetic of overlap, (b) polygenic risk score (PRS), (c)"diseasome", (d)meta-analysis. Descriptive analysis revealed few shared genetic factors between each AD and each NHL subtype. The PRS of ADs were not increased in NHL patients (nor vice versa). In the diseasome, NHLs shared more genetic etiology with ADs than solid cancers (p = .0041). A meta-analysis (combing AD with NHL) implicated genes of apoptosis and telomere length. This GWAS-based analysis four NHL subtypes and three ADs revealed few weakly-associated shared loci, explaining little total risk. This suggests common genetic variation, as assessed by GWAS in these sample sizes, may not be the primary explanation for the link between these ADs and NHLs.

BackgroundPrevious estimates of the colorectal cancer (CRC) burden attributed to behaviors have not considered joint effects, competing risk, or population subgroup differences.MethodsWe pooled data from seven prospective Australian cohort studies (n = 367 058) and linked them to national registries to identify CRCs and deaths. We estimated the strength of the associations between behaviors and CRC risk using a parametric piecewise constant hazards model, adjusting for age, sex, study, and other behaviors. Exposure prevalence was estimated from contemporary National Health Surveys. We calculated population attributable fractions for CRC preventable by changes to current behaviors, accounting for competing risk of death and risk factor interdependence. Statistical tests were two-sided.ResultsDuring the first 10 years of follow-up, there were 3471 incident CRCs. Overweight or obesity explained 11.1%, ever smoking explained 10.7% (current smoking 3.9%), and drinking more than two compared with two or fewer alcoholic drinks per day explained 5.8% of the CRC burden. Jointly, these factors were responsible for 24.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 19.7% to 29.9%) of the burden, higher for men (36.7%) than women (13.2%, Pdifference < .001). The burden attributed to these factors was also higher for those born in Australia (28.7%) than elsewhere (16.8%, Pdifference = .047). We observed modification of the smoking-attributable burden by alcohol consumption and educational attainment, and modification of the obesity-attributable burden by age group and birthplace.ConclusionsWe produced up-to-date estimates of the future CRC burden attributed to modifiable behaviors. We revealed novel differences between men and women, and other high–CRC burden subgroups that could potentially benefit most from programs that support behavioral change and early detection.

Introduction The introduction of targeted therapies for cancer has contributed to dramatic improvements in patient survival. Nevertheless, several targeted therapies have been associated with off-target' adverse effects, based on varying levels of evidence. To date, this evidence has not been systematically synthesised. We will synthesise published systematic review evidence of cardiovascular toxicity associated with targeted cancer therapies. Methods and analysis We will include systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials and observational studies that report on cardiovascular outcomes for individual agents. We will identify systematic reviews by applying predeveloped, standardised search strategies within Embase, Medline and Cochrane Central. Two independent reviewers will identify reviews published up to 31 December 2016 using predefined eligibility criteria. They will resolve ambiguous cases through consensus, arbitrated by a third reviewer if required. The reviewers will extract and report data according to methodological guidelines for overviews provided by the Cochrane Collaboration, Joanna Briggs Institute and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Protocols. They will assess the quality of included reviews by applying the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews tool. They will judge the quality of evidence in included reviews based on their assessment of bias and incorporation into the interpretation of findings. In synthesising the evidence, we will classify agents based on systematic review evidence of toxicity (sufficient, probable, possible or indeterminate) for specific cardiovascular outcomes (congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, ischaemic heart disease, left ventricular ejection fraction decline, cerebrovascular disease, pulmonary embolism, thrombosis and hypertension). This will provide clinicians and patients with an accessible synthesis based on robust methodology. Ethics and dissemination Ethic

Objectives: To investigate between-hospital variation in the probability of reoperation within 90 days of initial breast-conserving surgery (BCS), and the contribution of health system-level and other factors. Design: Population-based, retrospective cohort study. Setting: New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Participants: Linked administrative hospitalisation data were used to define a cohort of adult women undergoing initial BCS for breast cancer in NSW between 1 July 2002 and 31 December 2013. Primary outcome measures: Multilevel, crossclassified models with patients clustered within hospitals and residential areas were used to examine factors associated with any reoperation, and either re-excision or mastectomy, within 90 days. Results: Of 34 458 women undergoing BCS, 29.1% underwent reoperation within 90 days, half of which were mastectomies. Overall, the probability of reoperation decreased slightly over time. However, there were divergent patterns by reoperation type; the probability of re-excision increased alongside a concomitant decrease in the probability of mastectomy. Significant betweenhospital variation was observed. Non-metropolitan location and surgery at low-volume hospitals were associated with a higher overall probability of reoperation, and of mastectomy specifically, after accounting for patientlevel factors, calendar year and area-level socioeconomic status. The magnitude of association with geographical location and surgical volume decreased over time. Conclusions: Reoperation rates within 90 days of BCS varied significantly between hospitals. For women undergoing mastectomy after BCS, this represents a dramatic change in clinical course. Multilevel modelling suggests unwarranted clinical variation may be an issue, likely due to disparities in access to multidisciplinary breast cancer care and preoperative diagnostic procedures. However, the observed reduction in disparities over time is encouraging and indicates that guidelines and policy initia

Purpose To estimate the Australian cancer burden attributable to lifestyle-related risk factors and their combinations using a novel population attributable fraction (PAF) method that accounts for competing risk of death, risk factor interdependence and statistical uncertainty. Participants 365 173 adults from seven Australian cohort studies. We linked pooled harmonised individual participant cohort data with population-based cancer and death registries to estimate exposure-cancer and exposure-death associations. Current Australian exposure prevalence was estimated from representative external sources. To illustrate the utility of the new PAF method, we calculated fractions of cancers causally related to body fatness or both tobacco and alcohol consumption avoidable in the next 10 years by risk factor modifications, comparing them with fractions produced by traditional PAF methods. Findings to date Over 10 years of follow-up, we observed 27 483 incident cancers and 22 078 deaths. Of cancers related to body fatness (n=9258), 13% (95% CI 11% to 16%) could be avoided if those currently overweight or obese had body mass index of 18.5-24.9 kg/m 2. Of cancers causally related to both tobacco and alcohol (n=4283), current or former smoking explains 13% (11% to 16%) and consuming more than two alcoholic drinks per day explains 6% (5% to 8%). The two factors combined explain 16% (13% to 19%): 26% (21% to 30%) in men and 8% (4% to 11%) in women. Corresponding estimates using the traditional PAF method were 20%, 31% and 10%. Our PAF estimates translate to 74 000 avoidable body fatness-related cancers and 40 000 avoidable tobacco-and alcohol-related cancers in Australia over the next 10 years (2017-2026). Traditional PAF methods not accounting for competing risk of death and interdependence of risk factors may overestimate PAFs and avoidable cancers. Future plans We will rank the most important causal factors and their combinations for a spectrum of cancers and inform cancer co

Several chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) susceptibility loci have been reported; however, much of the heritable risk remains unidentified. Here we perform a meta-analysis of six genome-wide association studies, imputed using a merged reference panel of 1,000 Genomes and UK10K data, totalling 6,200 cases and 17,598 controls after replication. We identify nine risk loci at 1p36.11 (rs34676223, P=5.04 × 10-13), 1q42.13 (rs41271473, P=1.06 × 10-10), 4q24 (rs71597109, P=1.37 × 10-10), 4q35.1 (rs57214277, P=3.69 × 10-8), 6p21.31 (rs3800461, P=1.97 × 10-8), 11q23.2 (rs61904987, P=2.64 × 10-11), 18q21.1 (rs1036935, P=3.27 × 10-8), 19p13.3 (rs7254272, P=4.67 × 10-8) and 22q13.33 (rs140522, P=2.70 × 10-9). These new and established risk loci map to areas of active chromatin and show an over-representation of transcription factor binding for the key determinants of B-cell development and immune response.

OBJECTIVE: Determinants of the increased risk of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) in SLE are unclear. Using data from a recent lymphoma genome-wide association study (GWAS), we assessed whether certain lupus-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were also associated with DLBCL. METHODS: GWAS data on European Caucasians from the International Lymphoma Epidemiology Consortium (InterLymph) provided a total of 3857 DLBCL cases and 7666 general-population controls. Data were pooled in a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Among the 28 SLE-related SNPs investigated, the two most convincingly associated with risk of DLBCL included the CD40 SLE risk allele rs4810485 on chromosome 20q13 (OR per risk allele=1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16, p=0.0134), and the HLA SLE risk allele rs1270942 on chromosome 6p21.33 (OR per risk allele=1.17, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.36, p=0.0362). Of additional possible interest were rs2205960 and rs12537284. The rs2205960 SNP, related to a cytokine of the tumour necrosis factor superfamily TNFSF4, was associated with an OR per risk allele of 1.07, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.16, p=0.0549. The OR for the rs12537284 (chromosome 7q32, IRF5 gene) risk allele was 1.08, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.18, p=0.0765. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest several plausible genetic links between DLBCL and SLE.

BACKGROUND: Despite being the sixth most common cause of cancer death in Australia, cancer of unknown primary (CUP) site remains poorly understood. AIMS: To describe practices relating to the diagnosis, investigation, classification, communication and management of CUP among medical oncologists. METHODS: We invited all members of the Medical Oncology Group of Australia to participate in a national, anonymous online survey about CUP. The survey collected data regarding diagnosis acceptance, diagnostic tests, treatment protocols and communication practices around the diagnosis of CUP. RESULTS: Three hundred and two oncologists were invited and 86 (28%) completed the survey. Eighty (93%) respondents were directly involved in the assessment of patients with CUP. Eighty-five (99%) respondents were prepared to make a diagnosis of CUP if, after appropriate diagnostic tests, the primary location could not be ascertained. Eighty-three percent would assign a primary site to obtain Pharmaceutical Benefits Schedule funding of medical therapy. Sixty-two percent did not have a specific treatment protocol designed for CUP. The majority of oncologists used serum tumour markers and computed tomography scans in the initial work-up, while 43% indicated they would use a positron emission tomography scan in the majority of cases. The majority would arrange mammography in female patients. Thematic analysis of responses to open-ended questions about how CUP is described identified little consistency in the language being used. CONCLUSION: The approach to diagnosis, investigation and management of CUP by medical oncologists in Australia is variable. Many preferred to estimate the primary site and treat accordingly. Pharmaceutical Benefits Schedule restrictions may encourage the practice of 'best guessing'.

Background Iatrogenic immunosuppression is a risk factor for lip cancer but the determinants are unknown. Objective We sought to quantify the association between the type, dose, and duration of iatrogenic immunosuppression and lip cancer risk in solid organ transplant recipients. Methods We conducted a population-based cohort study of all adult Australian liver, heart, and lung transplant recipients from 1984 to 2006 (n = 4141). We abstracted longitudinal data from medical records and ascertained incident lip cancer (n = 58) and deaths (n = 1434) by linkage with national registries. We estimated multivariable hazard ratios (HR) for lip cancer using the Fine and Gray proportional subdistribution hazards model, accounting for death as a competing risk. Results Lip cancer risk (n = 58) increased with high mean daily dose of azathioprine (HR 2.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-4.38), longer duration of immunosuppression (HR 9.86, 95% CI 2.10-46.3), increasing year of age at transplantation (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.04-1.25), earlier transplantation era (HR 8.73, 95% CI 1.11-68.7), and history of smoking (HR 2.71, 95% CI 1.09-6.70). Limitations Data on potential confounders such as personal solar ultraviolet radiation exposure were not available. Conclusion Higher doses of azathioprine increase lip cancer risk, with implications for managing immunosuppressed populations and our understanding of the relationship between solar ultraviolet radiation and lip cancer.

Purpose Germ cell tumour (GCT) aetiology is uncertain and comprehensive epidemiological studies of GCT incidence are few. Methods Nationwide data on all malignant GCTs notified to Australian population-based cancer registries during 1982–2011 were obtained. Age- and sex-specific, and World age-standardised incidence rates were calculated for paediatric (0–14) and adult (15+) cases using the latest WHO subtype classification scheme. Temporal trends were examined using Joinpoint regression. Results There were 17,279 GCTs (552 paediatric, 16,727 adult). Age-specific incidence in males (all histologies combined) was bimodal, with peaks during infancy for most sites, and second, larger, peaks during young adulthood. Incidence of ovarian tumours peaked at age 15–19. Around half of paediatric tumours were extragonadal, whereas adult tumours were mostly gonadal. Yolk sac tumours and teratomas predominated in infants, whereas germinomas became more frequent towards adulthood. Increasing incidence trends for some adult gonadal tumours have stabilised; the trend for male extragonadal tumours is also declining. Conclusion Broad similarities in the shape of age-specific incidence curves, particularly for gonadal, central nervous system, and mediastinal tumours provide epidemiological support for commonalities in aetiology among clinically disparate GCT subtypes. Differences in peak ages reflect underlying subtype-specific biological differences. Declining incidence trends for some adult gonadal tumours accords with the global transition in GCT incidence, and supports the possibility of a reduction in prevalence of shared aetiological exposures.

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a common lymphoid malignancy with strong heritability. To further understand the genetic susceptibility for CLL and identify common loci associated with risk, we conducted a meta-analysis of four genome-wide association studies (GWAS) composed of 3,100 cases and 7,667 controls with follow-up replication in 1,958 cases and 5,530 controls. Here we report three new loci at 3p24.1 (rs9880772, EOMES, P=2.55 × 10(-11)), 6p25.2 (rs73718779, SERPINB6, P=1.97 × 10(-8)) and 3q28 (rs9815073, LPP, P=3.62 × 10(-8)), as well as a new independent SNP at the known 2q13 locus (rs9308731, BCL2L11, P=1.00 × 10(-11)) in the combined analysis. We find suggestive evidence (P<5 × 10(-7)) for two additional new loci at 4q24 (rs10028805, BANK1, P=7.19 × 10(-8)) and 3p22.2 (rs1274963, CSRNP1, P=2.12 × 10(-7)). Pathway analyses of new and known CLL loci consistently show a strong role for apoptosis, providing further evidence for the importance of this biological pathway in CLL susceptibility.

Background: Strategies are needed to enhance screening of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among people who inject drugs to improve engagement in HCV treatment, and stem the growing burden of HCV-related morbidity and mortality. Methods: We linked routinely collected data on enrolment in opioid substitution therapy (OST) and HCV notifications. We calculated rates of incident HCV notifications, and compared rates in and out of OST. Results: Following adjustment for sex, age and calendar period, rates of incident HCV notification were significantly higher during periods of OST, compared to periods out of OST (adjusted incident rate ratio: 1.91; 95% confidence interval: 1.86, 1.97). This effect was seen across multiple treatment periods. Conclusions: HCV screening in OST settings increases detection of HCV infection among people who inject drugs.

Background: Blood-borne viruses (BBV) are prevalent among people with opioid dependence but their association with cause-specific mortality has not been examined at the population-level. Methods: We formed a population-based cohort of 29,571 opioid substitution therapy (OST) registrants in New South Wales, Australia, 1993-2007. We ascertained notifications of infection and death by record linkage between the Pharmaceutical Drugs of Addiction System (OST data), registers of hepatitis C (HCV), hepatitis B (HBV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses, and the National Death Index. We used competing risks regression to quantify associations between notification for BBV infection and causes of death. BBV status, age, year, OST status, and OST episodes were modelled as time-dependent covariates; sex was a fixed covariate. Results: OST registrants notified with HCV infection were more likely to die from accidental overdose (subdistribution hazard ratio, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.7, 1.5-2.0), cancer (2.0, 1.3-3.2) and unintentional injury (1.4, 1.0-2.0). HBV notification was associated with a higher hazard of mortality due to unintentional injury (2.1, 1.1-3.9), cancer (2.8, 1.5-5.5), and liver disease (2.1, 1.0-4.3). Liver-related mortality was higher among those notified with HIV only (11, 2.5-50), HCV only (5.9, 3.2-11) and both HIV and HCV (15, 3.2-66). Registrants with an HIV notification had a higher hazard of cardiovascular-related mortality (4.0, 1.6-9.9). Conclusions: Among OST registrants, BBVs are a direct cause of death and also a marker of behaviours that can result in unintended death. Ongoing and enhanced BBV prevention strategies and treatment, together with targeted education strategies to reduce risk, are justified.

The authors provide an update on the association between immune deficiency and cancer risk in people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and in solid organ transplant recipients. Over the past decade, it has become clear that a wider range of about 20 mostly infection-related cancers occur at increased rates in people with immune deficiency. The human herpes virus 8 (HHV8) and Epstein Barr Virus (EBV)-related cancers of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) are most closely related to level of immune deficiency. Transplant recipients also have a greatly increased risk of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the skin, related to direct carcinogenic effects of the pharmaceuticals used for immune suppression. For those three cancer types, the increased cancer risk is largely reversed when immune deficiency is decreased by treatment of HIV or by reduction of iatrogenic immune suppression. Other infection-related cancers also occur at increased rates, but it is not clear whether reduction of immune deficiency reduces cancer risk. Prostate and breast cancer do not occur at increased rates, providing strong evidence that these cancers are unlikely to be related to infection. Epidemiological and clinical trends in these two populations have led to substantial recent changes in cancer occurrence.

We examined risk of second cancer and late mortality in a population-based Australian cohort of 717 pediatric allogeneic stem cell transplant (HSCT) recipients treated for a malignant disease during 1982-2007. Record linkage with population-based death and cancer registries identified 17 second cancers at a median of 7.9 years post HSCT; thyroid cancer being the most common malignancy (n=8). The cumulative incidence of second cancer was 8.7% at follow-up, and second cancers occurred 20 times more often than in the general population (standardised incidence ratio 20.3, 95% confidence interval (CI)=12.6-32.7). Transplantation using radiation-based conditioning regimens was associated with increased second cancer risk. A total of 367 patients survived for at least 2 years post HSCT and of these 44 (12%) died at a median of 3.1 years after HSCT. Relapse was the most common cause of late mortality (n=32). The cumulative incidence of late mortality was 14.7%. The observed rate of late mortality was 36 times greater than in the matched general population (standardised mortality ratio 35.9, 95% CI=26.7-48.3). Recipients who relapsed or who had radiation-based conditioning regimens were at higher risk of late mortality. Second cancers and late mortality continue to be a risk for pediatric patients undergoing HSCT, and these results highlight the need for effective screening and survivorship programs.

Unconfounded comparative data on the type and dose of immunosuppressive agents among solid organ transplant recipients are sparse, as are data on longitudinal immunosuppressive therapy since transplantation. We addressed this issue in a population-based cohort of Australian liver (n = 1895), heart (n = 1220), and lung (n = 1059) transplant recipients, 1984-2006. Data on immunosuppressive therapy were retrospectively collected at discharge, three months, and one, five, 10, and 15 yr after first transplant. We computed unadjusted and adjusted estimates for the association between the type and dose of immunosuppressive therapy and organ type. After adjustment for confounders, use of induction antibody and maintenance corticosteroids was more common in heart and lung compared to liver recipients (p < 0.001), and antibody therapy for rejection more common in liver recipients (p < 0.001). Liver recipients were more likely to receive calcineurin inhibitor monotherapy, with or without corticosteroids, compared to heart and lung recipients (p < 0.001). Liver recipients consistently received lower doses of azathioprine than heart and lung recipients (p < 0.001). These differences in immunosuppression may partly explain variations in immunosuppression-related morbidity by transplanted organ, for example, malignancy risk. Longitudinal changes in the type and the dose of immunosuppressive therapy over time since transplantation also demonstrate the need for time-dependent data in observational research. © 2015 John Wiley

Objective: To examine the validity and impact of record linkage using name code compared to full name records. Methods: A registry of 45,419 opioid substitution clients (1985-2007) was linked with national population-based death and cancer registries using registrant's name, date of birth, sex, state, postcode and date of death. Records were linked using full name and then using the first two letters of the given and surname (2×2 name code). Sensitivity and specificity were computed and regression analysis used to identify factors related to linkage accuracy. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) and standardised cancer incidence ratios (SIR) were estimated. Results: The sensitivity and specificity of name code compared to full name linkage were 65.31% and 99.91% for death records and 76.81% and 99.89% for cancer records. Registrants' age and sex and accuracy of the registries were associated with risk of false linkages. Death and cancer risks (SMR 6.98, 95%CI 6.77-7.19; SIR 1.16, 95%CI 1.08-1.24) were significantly under-estimated using name code linkage (SMR 4.39, 95%CI 4.23-4.56; SIR 0.92, 95%CI 0.85-0.99). Conclusion: Record linkage using 2×2 name code has low sensitivity but high specificity, resulting in conservative estimates of death and cancer risk. This may translate to meaningful differences in outcomes.

Marginal zone lymphoma (MZL) is the third most common subtype of B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Here we perform a two-stage GWAS of 1,281 MZL cases and 7,127 controls of European ancestry and identify two independent loci near BTNL2 (rs9461741, P=3.95 × 10(-15)) and HLA-B (rs2922994, P=2.43 × 10(-9)) in the HLA region significantly associated with MZL risk. This is the first evidence that genetic variation in the major histocompatibility complex influences MZL susceptibility.