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AbstractQini curves have emerged as an attractive and popular approach for evaluating the benefit of data-driven targeting rules for treatment allocation. We propose a generalization of the Qini curve to multiple costly treatment arms that quantifies the value of optimally selecting among both units and treatment arms at different budget levels. We develop an efficient algorithm for computing these curves and propose bootstrap-based confidence intervals that are exact in large samples for any point on the curve. These confidence intervals can be used to conduct hypothesis tests comparing the value of treatment targeting using an optimal combination of arms with using just a subset of arms, or with a non-targeting assignment rule ignoring covariates, at different budget levels. We demonstrate the statistical performance in a simulation experiment and an application to treatment targeting for election turnout. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ostracism—being ignored and excluded—has been shown to fuel threats to democracies, including increased willingness to engage in violent actions, endorsement of partisan falsehoods, and belief in political conspiracy theories. Recently, low social belonging has been linked with lower voter turnout and increased populist party support, thus illustrating how an individual's social experiences may prove consequential for political processes. Importantly, low levels of belonging may originate from social ostracism, as ostracized individuals are denied social partaking by others. In a registered report, we analyzed large survey data including reported voting behavior in the past national election from 11 European countries, and we found that ostracism is associated with lower voter turnout. Ostracism was not connected to populist party vote, irrespective of their ideological orientation (far‐left vs. far‐right). The findings highlight the need to better understand and consider how individuals' social experiences are relevant in safeguarding modern democracies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The connection between individual and macroeconomic conditions and voting behavior is well‐established. We contribute to the less resolved “spatial gap” in the literature that centers on how the localized economic conditions of where voters live influence their likelihood to vote. We test how space mediates the tension between voter mobilization and withdrawal in the face of economic shocks. We consider a scenario, the Great Recession, where economic shocks were quite localized and sudden, and compile an extensive dataset of all registered voters in the four‐county Tampa metropolitan area between 2006 and 2015. Using sales prices and property characteristics from the tax assessor rolls, we estimate a neighborhood‐level shock to housing values induced by the Great Recession. Results show that when we do not account for local neighborhood variation, the Great Recession is associated with a significant decrease in voter turnout. However, when we account for localized economic shocks, we find that residents in neighborhoods with negative price shocks were more likely to vote after the Recession, especially in non‐local elections. In addition, the propensity to vote increases with the size of the negative price shock. There is some evidence that variation at the neighborhood level matters more than voter‐level heterogeneity. The positive voting response is most profound in predominantly Black neighborhoods, and, to a lesser extent, in predominantly Hispanic and the lowest income neighborhoods. Increases in the propensity to vote are robust to models controlling for baseline economic vulnerabilities, such as localized unemployment, the weakness of the local housing market and exposure to sectors hit hardest by the Recession. The results indicate that dramatic and sudden changes in localized economic conditions can drive voting behavior, and in ways that are distinct from macroeconomic drivers. In addition, the housing asset channel appears to be a powerful one, which can induce significant voting responses at the national level apart from other localized economic drivers, especially among homeowners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aims to explain why participation in presidential elections increased among people who feared the risk of worsening COVID‐19 in Africa. The analysis is based on a sample of 16,890 people living in 34 African countries. Econometric results suggest that fear of the pandemic's escalation can reduce citizens' willingness to participate in presidential elections. However, this negative effect changes based on perceptions of government management of the pandemic. We show that the likelihood of voting in a presidential election increases significantly among those afraid of the pandemic's worsening with (i) a lack of confidence in government statistics on COVID‐19; (ii) perceived corruption related to the COVID‐19 pandemic; (iii) a lack of confidence in the government's ability to ensure the safety of COVID‐19 vaccines; (iv) perceived insufficient public investment in combating health emergencies; and (v) perceived insufficient intervention by law enforcement in enforcing COVID‐19 control measures. Related Articles: Onyango, Gedion, and Japheth Otieno Ondiek. 2022. "Open Innovation during the COVID‐19 Pandemic Policy Responses in South Africa and Kenya." Politics & Policy 50(5): 1008–31. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12490. Stockemer, Daniel. 2016. "Is the Turnout Function in Democracies and Nondemocracies Alike or Different?" Politics & Policy 44(5): 889–915. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12174. Stockemer, Daniel, and Stephanie Parent. 2014. "The Inequality Turnout Nexus—New Evidence from Presidential Elections." Politics & Policy 42(2): 221–45. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12067. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2014, the EU introduced the lead candidate procedure to raise citizens' awareness and interest in the European Parliament (EP) elections and, thereby, voter turnout. We study the use of personalization, centralized personalization (focusing on lead candidates), emotional personalization, and private personalization on Facebook by political parties across 12 countries during the 2014 and 2019 EP campaigns and the effects of personalization on user engagement. A standardized quantitative content analysis of 14,293 posts by 227 political parties shows that about half of the Facebook posts were personalized, but there is no general trend of rising personalization. While emotional personalization increased, parties hardly ever posted about their lead candidates and their private lives. Variations are not due to structural (e.g., party and media systems) or geographical/cultural factors. Positive effects are found for the use of emotional personalization attracting a higher volume of user reactions (likes, reactions, shares, and comments) in both elections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Academic Inquiries / Akademik Incelemeler Dergisi is the property of Akademik Incelemeler Dergisi (Journal of Academic Inquiries) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We study whether competitive legislative districts cause higher voter turnout. To do so, we employ rich data on the 2006 to 2020 elections in North Carolina. We make use of variation in district competitiveness due to repeated bouts of redistricting, a process in which district boundaries are redrawn. Specifically, we compare people who share the same districts in each legislative chamber (U.S. House, NC Senate, NC House) before redistricting but who differ in districts after redistricting. We match these people on demographics, party registration, and pre-redistricting turnout. We then track their turnout behavior in post-redistricting elections. For the U.S. House, switching from an uncompetitive "80–20" district to a competitive "55–45" district increases turnout by a rate of 1 percentage point per election of exposure. For the state chambers, the magnitude is 0.6. Effects are highly persistent and sum across chambers. They appear to be explained in part by a learning channel, where living in a competitive district induces people to believe that races can be competitive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective Methods Results Conclusion Top two primary systems have been touted to increase moderation in politics. In a top two primary, the two candidates with the most votes continue on to the general election even if they are from the same political party. Candidates no longer have to cater to the extremes of their party in order to make it through the primary, so the thought is that candidates would be encouraged to be moderate throughout the election cycle to attract the median voter.Washington State adopted a top two primary system in 2008, which allows us to look at empirical evidence about whether the top two primary actually encourages moderation in politics. We analyze voting records of elected officials before and after the adoption of the top two primary.We find evidence that the top two primary correlates with moderation in the voting behavior of elected officials, ceteris paribus.Policymakers may want to consider the structure of primaries and how they could be changed to help encourage moderation in the voting of elected officials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many democracies, unemployed and low‐income citizens are less willing to vote. Can social policies weaken the link between income and turnout? We study policy feedback leveraging a unique experiment in Finland, which randomly assigned a sizable group of unemployed to receiving an unconditional basic income (BI) for 2 years (2017–19). Combining individual‐level registry and survey data, we show that the intervention has large positive effects on voter turnout. Unconditional BI increases turnout in municipal elections by about 3 percentage points (p.p.), on average, an effect that is concentrated among marginal voters (+ 6–8 p.p.) and persists in national elections after the end of the experiment. Exploring possible mechanisms, our analysis highlights the role of the interpretive effects that follow from unconditionality in the bureaucratic process, including higher levels of political trust and efficacy. We discuss implications for theories of voter turnout and policy feedback, and the design of BI policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past two decades, extreme parties have gained increasing electoral success in European party systems. While this party polarization is often associated with its negative consequences, recent studies have suggested its potential benefit for remobilizing the electorate by offering clear political alternatives. However, it remains unclear which groups of citizens may be mobilized by broader supply and whether this positive effect is generalizable to multiparty systems. This article contributes to this debate arguing that the system multidimensionality matters when assessing the relationship between polarization and voter turnout. Through a multilevel analysis and two studies at the aggregate and individual levels, this article provides evidence that party polarization is associated with increased turnout only when parties polarize on the cultural dimension of party competition. This effect is moderated by the party system unidimensionality and mobilizes voters at large, regardless of their level of extremism, political awareness or partisanship. These findings support previous research suggesting a ‘realignment’ of party systems, meaning that the main line of political conflict for parties and voters is shifting towards the cultural dimension of party competition across Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More aggressive campaigning styles focusing on criticizing opponents (negativity) or using inappropriate language to vilify opponents (incivility) tend to be disliked by voters, and remain thus risky for parties facing off in competitive elections. Backlashes against attackers often cancel out any dent the attacks may leave in the support for the targets. Yet, research on the conditions under which these backlashes are more likely to happen remains fragmentary. In this article, we argue that the nature of the electoral competition – specifically, the presence of viable alternative parties for voters to choose from – matters. Voters could be more likely to withdraw political support from the attacker when such alternatives exist. We test whether the availability and ideological attractiveness of alternatives intervene to explain the backlash effect associated with negativity and incivility, at the election, party, and voter levels. We do so comparatively in the context of the 2019 European Parliament elections in 27 EU countries, by linking a cross-sectional post-election survey (N = 18,790) with an expert survey covering the campaigning strategies of 175 parties that participated in the election across the continent. Estimating mixed effects multi-level models, we find support for the moderating effect of alternatives at the voter-level; voters who have at least equally attractive alternatives available to them are less likely to support parties that go negative than voters to whom the attacking party is the most viable option. Alternatives do not seem to play a major role, however, at the party and election levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to the 2022 midterm elections, we conducted large-scale randomized controlled trials in Iowa and Washington aimed at increasing voter turnout among newly enfranchised individuals with past felony convictions. Alongside national and grassroots partners, we designed and implemented experiments to ascertain the effectiveness of alternative outreach mechanisms, including targeted mailers and digital ads. We did not detect statistically significant or economically meaningful effects on voter registration or turnout; most observed effects were precise nulls. The absence of measured impact is likely attributed to low digital engagement with our online ads as well as extensive voter outreach already conducted by our local partners prior to the study. Our evidence highlights the importance of context in voter outreach efforts, as the political and legal environment in Iowa and Washington differed significantly from other regions where similar interventions had previously shown success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does increasing Internet access and use challenge authoritarian elections? I argue that Internet access provides both opposition supporters and government authorities with new means to shape electoral conduct. Opposition supporters can use the Internet to report on electoral malpractice and mobilize for support. At the same time government authorities can use the Internet to monitor antiregime sentiment prior to the elections and disrupt Internet access to selectively repress regime opponents during the elections. Studying Uganda's 2016 presidential elections, evidence from election monitoring and survey data suggests that electoral violence is significantly higher in opposition strongholds with greater Internet access prior to the Internet disruption and is targeted specifically at voters. Insights from qualitative interviews with politicians, journalists and activists underline that the disruption of Internet access indeed hindered opposition supporters to effectively challenge electoral malpractice. Overall, the results stress the important role that Internet access can play for opposition actors in authoritarian elections. At the same time, they highlight their susceptibility to manipulation by government authorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An election with full turnout is supposed to achieve an outcome that perfectly reflects the majority's preference. This result requires voters to be perfectly informed about their preferences and to vote accordingly. I show that incentivizing participation with an abstention fine does not necessarily incentivize information acquisition. While a small abstention fine always increases information acquisition compared to Voluntary Voting, a high abstention fine that achieves full turnout increases information acquisition only if voting costs are high. If voting costs are low, the opposite is true: Less individuals acquire information under Compulsory Voting with full turnout than under Voluntary Voting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing political inclusion of diaspora populations around the world has raised questions about their influence on electoral outcomes back home. In Kenya, emigrants have advocated for direct influence through external voting rights, while less attention has been given to the ways in which they may also indirectly influence elections through economic remittances. In this research note, we explore diaspora efforts to influence elections through the perspectives of domestic voters, which are often overlooked in the literature on diaspora voting. We surveyed a nationally representative sample of eligible voters within Kenya prior to the August 2022 presidential election and posed parallel questions to a smaller sample of diaspora Kenyans. Domestic voters strongly support direct diaspora participation in elections for president, but not for lower-level offices. Our survey results also indicate that roughly one of every seven eligible voters in Kenya was encouraged to vote in the 2022 election by friends and family abroad from whom they receive remittances. Thus, emigrants may have more influence on elections through their connections at home than through their direct votes. Drawing on the Kenyan case, we explore some directions for future research on transnational citizenship and voting rights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After previous failed attempts, Prabowo Subianto won the 2024 Indonesian presidential election. In this article, we outline the events that unfolded in the run-up to the election before analyzing the drivers of Indonesian voting behaviour based on original survey data. Our analyses underscore the importance of transformations in the generational composition of the Indonesian electorate: younger voters, especially those born after the return of democracy, are fuelling its erosion with their support of a former general accused of human rights abuses. In addition to benefitting from the support of incumbent President Joko Widodo, we argue that Prabowo's victory was underpinned by a sophisticated social media campaign, the waning memory of Indonesia's authoritarian past, and a young populace anxious about their economic prospects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Europe, the multiplication of elections makes the election calendar a decisive issue given the decreasing participatory trend. Turnout is expected to be higher in simultaneous elections, while it lessens if several elections are held over a short period. The saliency of the preceding ballot may also affect participation in the next one. In this article, we argue that these temporal effects are crucial for European Parliament elections due to their second-order nature. We analyse how the position, frequency and nature of domestic ballots affect European Parliament elections turnout since 1979. Our results indicate that the participation level is less affected by the timing of elections than by their overall frequency. The type of preceding election also matters, although not the second-order nature per se. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article provides an overview of the local council elections in Tunisia in December 2023, which were part of President Kais Saied's efforts to establish a "bottom-up democracy." However, the elections saw a low voter turnout due to societal grievances and a lack of trust in the political system. The article suggests that these elections reflect Saied's political ambitions and his portrayal as a "savior," potentially leading to a new type of populist autocracy. It also questions the assumption that the low turnout was solely due to boycotts, arguing that blaming it on dissatisfaction with the political climate is unfounded. The article examines Saied's political project, describing it as a populist mass movement autocracy characterized by mass mobilization and indoctrination. It concludes that the low turnout and the use of legal tools to restrict political participation indicate a diminished chance for future democracy in Tunisia. [Extracted from the article]

Do voters want their party to be office- or policy-seekers in coalition negotiations? This question has been left unstudied in political science research so far. While existing research shows that policies matter for voters when forming their preferences for coalitions, in this study it is argued that voters find it at the same time important that their preferred party gains offices. Specifically, voters' office-seeking considerations are expected to increase the more indifferent they are to the policy content of a coalition agreement. To test this assumption, an original conjoint experiment among Green Party voters in the context of the German federal election in 2021 has been conducted. The findings demonstrate that voters' office-seeking considerations become more important the more similar coalition agreements are with regard to their policy content. These findings have important implications for the understanding of voters' preferences regarding coalitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theoretical works suggest that populist attitudes are associated with demands for direct democracy in the form of referendums. However, it remains unclear how populist attitudes relate to other direct-democratic instruments such as citizens' initiatives. We therefore examine whether populist attitudes affect the attitudes toward the Citizens' Agenda Initiative (CI) in Finland with the help of the national election study from 2019 (n = 1598). We study (1) whether populist attitudes are associated with positive attitudes towards the CI (2) whether populist attitudes increase the use of the CI, and (3) the interplay between anti-elitism, anti-immigration, and anti-pluralism as driving forces behind attitudes towards and using the CI. The results suggest that anti-elitism has a negative link to satisfaction with the CI, and anti-pluralism is associated with lower likelihood of using the CI. Hence there is little to suggest that populist attitudes are strong drivers of involvement in this kind of direct-democratic participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do democratization processes affect voter turnout in new democracies? Existing work points to an expected boost in electoral turnout after democratization as newly democratic citizens are euphoric to exert newly democratic freedoms or because they developed new political attitudes and behaviours by mobilizing for democracy. While intuitive and normatively appealing, these explanations have not been theoretically nor empirically scrutinized within the literature. This paper develops and tests novel theoretical expectations on the processes and legacies of democratization that impact voter turnout in new democracies. Using electoral turnout data from 1086 national elections between 1946 and 2015, and turnout survey data of over 1 million respondents between 1982 and 2015, we find that the boost in voter turnout (1) exists only for the first election after transition, (2) its effect depends on the life cycle during which individuals experienced the transition and (3) it is less dependent on transition type. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On August 2nd, 2022, Kansas held a vote to lift state constitutional protections for abortion access. The vote gained national attention, as it was the first statewide plebiscite on the subject since the U.S. Supreme Court had issued its ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, which had overturned the remaining U.S. Constitutional blocks on restricting abortion that had been in place since Roe v. Wade. The turnout for the election was unprecedented for a primary in the state, and to the surprise of many, the amendment failed by a large margin in deep red Kansas. In this paper, we use both precinct-level election results and individual-level voter registration and history data to explore who was mobilized to vote in the August 2022 primary and their behavior in the November 2022 general election. We find that the primary mobilized an electorate that had more women and young people, fewer Republicans, and more first-time voters than a normal primary, but that these demographics were also more likely to then abstain in the general election. Thus, the engagement of young people, especially young women, on the abortion issue remains, but preliminary findings suggest the future of this groups' electoral participation separate from abortion activism is unclear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the challenges faced by progressive organizations, such as 38 Degrees, under a progressive government. The author emphasizes the need for these organizations to advocate for the causes their supporters care about, while also engaging with the new government. They highlight the importance of pushing the government to go further and celebrating progress, rather than solely opposing the government. The article also mentions the need to mobilize public opinion and maintain a focus on the battle for public opinion in a politically volatile time. The author concludes by stating that progressives will continue to demand change while also celebrating success and defending progress. [Extracted from the article]

This document discusses the recent constitutional overhaul proposed by President López Obrador in Mexico. The proposal includes the direct election of federal and state judges, the replacement of the Federal Judicial Council, and the abrogation of Supreme Court decisions. The governing coalition claims that the majority of the people voted for this reform, but it is more complex than that. The document highlights the regressive implications of this overhaul, including the subordination of the constitution to the legislative majority, the loss of the Supreme Court's role as an arbiter, the election of ill-prepared judges, and the deterioration of Mexico's credibility. The document emphasizes the importance of protecting democracy and preserving institutions. [Extracted from the article]

Copyright of Policy & Internet is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Forschungsjournal Soziale Bewegungen is the property of De Gruyter and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Populist voting behavior is a relatively new research area with most studies concentrated on European and American voters, despite electoral successes of populist parties in illiberal and hybrid democracies of Asia. The research fills this gap by outlining the determinants of populist voting in Pakistan through constituency-based analysis of electoral data of the 2018 general elections when a Pakistani populist party, Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaaf, won the elections. The research compares the ideational framework with the strategic framework of populism, examining whether voting for a populist party is determined by the political ideology or attitude of the voters or the mobilization strategy of the party built upon the sociopolitical realities of the region. The focus is on constituencies where PTI was successful for the first time. Based on the analysis of eight such constituencies, both rural and urban, the study concludes that neither the PTI voters' profile matches the sociodemographic profile of the populist voter mentioned in literature nor their voting decisions seem to be guided by anti-elitist attitude common among European or Latin American populist voters. The research outlines two major factors that can explain the victory of PTI: the politics of electables and the mobilization of non-voters, indicating that the strategic lens of populism better explains voting for PTI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does online misinformation affect citizen's likelihood to vote? The risk of fake news on social media does not only lie in the false narratives spread by manipulated content but also in the misplaced confidence cultivated by the way fake news is consumed. Both should be considered when evaluating the impact of fake news on political behavior. We examine a non-probability sample comprising 23,996 college students across the Philippines a year before the 2022 national elections to see the individual effects of misinformation susceptibility and confidence on voting. Contrary to previous empirical work, ordered logistic regression analyses reveal that both confidence and information accuracy are crucial predictors in voting likelihood. We also find empirical evidence for dissatisfaction with the President and the third person effect being significant factors in one's choice to vote. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the European Union (EU) strategies to combat Artificial Intelligence (AI)-generated misinformation in the 2024 election year. Topics discussed include recent examples of AI-driven disinformation in global elections, the EU's legal framework for managing deep fakes, and the role of public awareness initiatives in preserving electoral integrity.

Democratic legitimacy is essential for democratic stability, as democracies rely on citizen support to survive. However, perceived legitimacy gaps can also be an important catalyst for change and potential democratic renewal, begging the question when challenges to legitimacy become problematic for democratic survival. Easton distinguished between citizen support for political authorities and the political system, and argued that if support for political authorities declined, such declining support could either be resolved by the current political authorities changing course, or by citizens electing new political authorities at the next elections. However, if dissatisfaction with political authorities would not be resolved, lacking support had the potential to eventually "spill-over" and undermine support for the political system as a whole. In most empirical research on legitimacy, the assumption is that such "spill-over" is visible only if declining levels of political trust and satisfaction with democracy start to undermine support for democracy as a political system. In this paper, we argue that "spillover" can also manifest in a different way: through the politicization of political support. When politics is no longer (only) about substantive policy decisions, but rather (increasingly) about the system itself, agreement on the rules of the game, or even on democracy as "the only game in town", is no longer self-evident. In this paper we further develop our theoretical argument about the connection between legitimacy and politicisation, and argue that European democracies appear to experience growing politicization of political support, in terms of the association of political support with citizens' substantive issue positions and voting behaviour. The paper demonstrates empirical evidence of such politicization of political support in 17 European democracies with European Social Survey data from 2002-2022. The paper concludes by reflecting on the implications of the politicization of political support for democratic stability and renewal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our analysis focuses on the determinants of electoral participation among migrants, considering individual factors—gender and age—and variables from their countries of origin, such as economic, political, and institutional aspects. We specifically look at Chile, where migrants are allowed to vote in all elections after acquiring five years of permanent residency. Utilizing a comprehensive administrative census covering over 70 million voters, including 1.2 million migrants, from 2012 to 2020, our findings reveal several key patterns: Gender and age significantly influence voting behavior, with higher turnout among women and older migrants. Additionally, migrants from wealthier nations tend to vote less compared to those from poorer countries. Furthermore, the presence of compulsory voting in the origin country significantly increases participation among migrants, especially those from less democratic or non-democratic countries. This study bridges theoretical models that focus on individual variables and those that emphasize the impact of origin country characteristics on migrant electoral behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In research on public economics, climate politics and the welfare state, voters' informational and cognitive biases are commonly understood as impeding future‐oriented policy‐making, by incentivizing policymakers to trade off long‐term investments against short‐term consumption when facing competitive elections or liquidity constraints. Yet, the assumptions about how policymakers perceive these alleged trade‐offs have not yet been verified. This study reports results from a survey of Swedish local government politicians, centring around experiments about environmental‐friendly public investments. We find that most politicians perceive that electoral competition stimulates rather than impedes investments. Politicians are, however, less supportive of investments if these need to be financed through absolute losses rather than gains foregone, which illustrates the relevance of endowment effects in long‐term governance. We furthermore show that our micro‐level observations are consistent with macro‐level investment expenditure patterns. These findings demonstrate that accounting for policymakers' own perceptions is important for advancing our understanding of future‐oriented policy‐making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large literature studies whether, and under what circumstances, voters will electorally punish corrupt politicians. Yet this literature has to date neglected the empirical prevalence of transnational dimensions to real‐world corruption allegations, even as corruption studies undergo a 'transnational turn'. We use a survey experiment in the United Kingdom in 2020 to investigate whether voters differentially punish politicians associated with transnational corruption and test four different potential mechanisms: information salience, country‐based discrimination, economic nationalism and expected representation. We find evidence suggesting that voters indeed differentially punish transnational corruption, but only when it involves countries perceived negatively by the public (i.e. a 'Moscow‐based firm'). This is most consistent with a mechanism of country‐based discrimination, while we find no evidence consistent with any other mechanism. These results suggest that existing experimental studies might understate the potential for electoral accountability by neglecting real‐world corruption allegations' frequent transnational dimension. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While scholars have closely examined the intensification of negative affect across party lines during elections, less is known about the decline of partisan hostility in the aftermath of election campaigns. Synthesizing insights from research on electoral rules and political psychology, we theorize and empirically test two such mechanisms of post‐election negative affect decline. The first is that of winners' generosity: the expectation that self‐perceived election winners will express warmer feelings towards political opponents. The second is that of co‐governance, which predicts that shared coalition status leads to warmer affective evaluations among governing parties. We provide evidence that these mechanisms operate as pressure valves of negative partisan affect. We also show that while co‐governance reduces negative affect between parties who govern together, it fuels negative affect among supporters of opposition parties. The empirical analyses leverage a uniquely uncertain political period following the 2021 Israeli elections, around which we conducted an original panel study. Our findings advance the comparative polarization literature and connect psychological and institutional accounts of temporal fluctuations in partisan affect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has shown that sexual and/or gender minority voters are prone to mobilizing when LGBT+ issues are on the political agenda. This increased level of political engagement is attributed to the experience of discrimination, understood both in legal and social terms, which spurs LGBT+ individuals to participate with the aim of advancing their rights. However, a crucial question remains unanswered: do these gaps in participation persist in contexts where core LGBT+ rights are protected? Drawing from comprehensive and verified data on the population of Sweden, this study finds evidence of a positive and sustained sexuality‐driven voter turnout gap across multiple elections. This gap manifests itself both shortly and a decade after the enactment of same‐sex marriage and shows no tangible signs of abating. In addition to improving our knowledge of political participation patterns among sexual minorities, these findings underscore the potential role of minority rights protection as a mechanism to ensure enduring inclusion of social minority groups within democratic processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Voters in rural and peripheral areas have increasingly turned away from mainstream parties and towards right‐wing populist parties. This paper tests the extent to which political decisions with adverse local effects—such as school and hospital closures—can explain this electoral shift. I theorize that political decisions such as these substantiate a perception of a disconnect between "ordinary" people and the politicians in power in day‐to‐day experiences. Using data on 315 school closures and 30 hospital closures in Denmark from 2005 to 2019 in a generalized difference‐in‐differences design, I find that mayors lose about 1.6 percentage points of the valid votes in areas where they close a school. Furthermore, I find that right‐wing populist parties increase their support in both local and national elections when a local school or hospital is closed. These findings provide insight into the electoral consequences of political decisions with adverse local effects and thus contribute to our understanding of the rise of right‐wing populism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does women's representation in politics affect working‐class women's attitudes toward political processes? Despite their increasing presence in the workforce, many women continue to concentrate in occupational sectors characterized by high economic vulnerability and low social status. This dynamic has important implications for the politics of representation. Previous studies suggest that women politicians positively affect women voters' political attitudes, but women's representation in politics is likely to have differing impacts on the political attitudes of working‐class and professional women. This study demonstrates that women's representation has a large class impact among women voters. In particular, using cross‐national data from 31 OECD countries as well as panel survey data from the British Election Study, we show that in countries with a higher degree of women's representation, there is more skepticism among women in low‐skill sectors toward voting and leadership than among those in white‐collar sectors. This is because there exist higher standards of accountability and relatability for women representatives among women voters. Given such high expectations, there is greater room for dissatisfaction among working‐class women than among their white‐collar counterparts when they constantly experience occupational segregation despite a high share of women in politics. In these settings, by contrast, women voters with high‐skill jobs are more likely to believe that voting and leadership matter, as they can better associate themselves with women political elites. Since men voters do not have strong expectations for relatability and accountability for public officeholders, the class impact of women's representation is weak among men. These findings have important implications for the symbolic representation of marginalized groups and democratic accountability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Political parties are considered the basic institutions in a representative democratic system. It engaged the party members through internal and external party activities. The members of established political parties have gained more power to select candidates and party leadership in developed democracies. Pakistan is a developing democratic country; Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf announced an intra-party election in 2012 to elect candidates for the general election 2013 in Pakistan. However, it is a fact that intra-party participation promotes equality and increased vote bank, party membership and turnout in general elections. The main aim of this paper is to examine the consequences of the intra-party election of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf held in 2012. Hence, this study concludes that the membership and vote bank of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has increased, grass-roots members promoted through proper channels and many candidates elected first time as members of parliament, as well as impacted the turnout in general elections of Pakistan. This study is an attempt to examine the impact of intra-party elections on the party membership, vote bank and turnout in general elections held in Pakistan before and after this intra-party election. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For many, direct democracy is said to increase political interest. To date, however, empirical findings regarding this relationship remain inconclusive. In this article, we claim that this inconclusiveness can be partly ascribed to the diverse effects that direct democracy has on individuals. In other words, direct democracy influences political interest, but how and to what degree depends on an individual's personality traits. Running hierarchical regression models with survey data from random samples of eligible American and Swiss voters, we arrive at the following three conclusions: First, in both countries, the use of direct democracy is not directly connected to political interest. Second, the Big Five personality traits affect the interest in politics. Third, neuroticism, in particular, alters the relationship between direct democracy and political interest, suggesting that a certain personality type is likely to be more sensitive to popular votes, and a vibrant democratic environment can help to inspire interest in politics for people who, because of their personality, tend to be detached from it. Quite intriguingly, these relationships hold irrespective of the country and research period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Western democracies, like the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, the number of ethnic minority representatives has been steadily increasing. How is this trend shaping electoral behavior? Past work has focused on the effects of minority representation on ethnic minorities' political engagement, with less attention to the electoral behavior of majority-group members. We argue that increased minorities' representation can be experienced as a threat to a historically white-dominant political context. This, in turn, politically activates white constituents. Using data from four U.K. general elections and a regression discontinuity design, we find that the next election's turnout in constituencies narrowly won by an ethnic minority candidate is 4.3 percentage points larger than in constituencies narrowly won by a white candidate. Consistent with our argument, this turnout difference is driven by majority-white constituencies. Our findings have implications for intergroup relations and party politics and help explain recent political dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies have established that giving incentives for votes is extremely widespread in many democracies; however, only little is known about the new dimension of vote-buying in Nigeria's 2023 elections. The study utilized qualitative tools to select four states, 32 interviewees, and 12 discussants. The study revealed that vote-buying increased the voters' turnout and became institutionalized and rampant with ruling parties and general elections rather than off-cycle elections. Voters were enticed with branded materials, financial incentives in kangaroo inducement activities (funeral/birthday/idol ceremonies, cooperative/artisan societies), and temporary social incentives (camouflage community, aged/less privileged assistance, age-grade social competitions). Other dimensions were the payment of salaries to parties' executives and fake committees, the use of community leaders in pretentious social care, and the welfare of their subjects mainly for the exchange of their votes. There is a need for electoral acts to capture these new dimensions and improve the activities of law enforcement agents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Investigating the relationship between Islamic religiosity and electoral participation amongst Muslim citizens in Western Europe, this study combines insights from the sociology of religion and Islamic studies with political behavior literature thus creating an improved theoretical framework and a richer empirical understanding surrounding the electoral participation of religious minorities. First, we theorize about three underlying dimensions of Islamic religiosity: frequency of mosque attendance, religious identification, and frequency of prayer. Subsequently, we consider how the religiosity–voting relationship is bolstered or hindered by hostile national environments such as more exclusionary policies and practices (e.g., veil banning or exclusionary citizenship laws). Empirically, we use a unique dataset that harmonizes five European surveys, resulting in a sample size of just under 8,000 European Muslims. Using multi-level techniques, we find, contrary to research on majority religiosity, that communal religiosity is unrelated to electoral participation. However, individual religiosity bolsters voting in particular among the second generation. Opposite to our expectation, we find that hostile environments do not seem to lead to different impacts of Islamic religiosity within Western Europe. Our results support the taking of a more fine-grained approach when measuring religiosity and also highlight how the impact varies across genders and generations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modernisation theory assumes that the larger the middle class, the more likely democracy is supported; for example, there will be more participation in elections, as shown in Western countries. However, there is no clear evidence on whether this trend also appears in developing countries. This study emphasises the association between the proportion of the middle class and the support for democracy in terms of voter turnout. Irrespective of the nature of the elections, we suppose that the modernisation level, proxied by the middle-class share, determines voter turnouts. Using data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the General Election Commission (KPU), we differentiate the voter turnouts in Indonesia's general election in 2019 at the district or city levels by grouping them into modernised and less-modernized regions, i.e., urban versus rural, Java versus outside Java, and western versus eastern regions. This study documented a deviation from the modernisation theory, evidenced by an unclear association between the proportion of the middle class and the voter turnout in the modernised areas. Counterintuitively, there are positive associations in the less modernised areas. The findings also reveal the selective participation among voters, as they showed different participation levels in the types of elections conducted in one day. They were more active in presidential elections than in parliamentary elections. In developing countries like Indonesia, the expansion of the middle class, followed by the declining number of rural regions, may lead to a decline in voter turnouts, thus raising demand for good governance and better performance of parties and candidates.