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BackgroundYoung adult (18-30 years) people who inject drugs (PWID) face high hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence. In San Francisco, where >60% of PWID lack stable housing, barriers hinder HCV treatment access. We assessed progress towards the World Health Organization's (WHO) HCV elimination goal of an 80% reduction in incidence over 2015-2030, focusing on young (YPWID) and unstably housed PWID in San Francisco.MethodsWe developed a dynamic HCV transmission model among PWID, parameterized and calibrated using bio-behavioural survey datasets from San Francisco. This included 2018 estimates for the antibody-prevalence among PWID (77%) and care cascade estimates for HCV for YPWID (72% aware of their status and 33% ever initiating treatment). Based on programmatic data, we assumed a 53.8% reduction in testing and 40.7% decrease in treatment from 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which partially rebounded from April 2021 with testing rates then being 31.1% lower than pre-pandemic rates and treatment numbers being 19.5% lower. We simulated different scenarios of how services changed after the pandemic to project whether elimination goals would be met.ResultsContinuing post-pandemic rates of testing and treatment, the model projects an 83.3% (95% credibility interval [95% CrI]:60.6-96.9%) decrease in incidence among PWID over 2015-2030 to 1.5/100pyrs (95% CrI:0.3-4.4) in 2030. The probability of achieving the elimination goal by 2030 is 62.0%. Among YPWID and unstably housed PWID, the probability of achieving the elimination goal by 2030 is 54.8 and 67.6%, respectively. Importantly, further increasing testing and treatment rates to pre-pandemic levels by 2025 only results in a small increase in the probability (67.5%) of the elimination goal being achieved among all PWID by 2030, while increased coverage of medication for opioid use disorder among YPWID and/or housing interventions results in the probability of achieving elimination increasing to over 75%.ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic impeded progress toward achieving HCV elimination. Our findings indicate that existing partial rebounds in HCV testing and treatment may achieve the elimination goal by 2030, with an additional scale-up of interventions aimed at YPWID or unstably housed PWID ensuring San Francisco is likely to achieve elimination by 2030.

BackgroundIncarceration is associated with drug-related harms among people who inject drugs (PWID). We trained >1800 police officers in Tijuana, Mexico on occupational safety and HIV/HCV, harm reduction, and decriminalization reforms (Proyecto Escudo). We evaluated its effect on incarceration, population impact and cost-effectiveness on HIV and fatal overdose among PWID.MethodsWe assessed self-reported recent incarceration in a longitudinal cohort of PWID before and after Escudo. Segmented regression was used to compare linear trends in log risk of incarceration among PWID pre-Escudo (2012-2015) and post-Escudo (2016-2018). We estimated population impact using a dynamic model of HIV transmission and fatal overdose among PWID, with incarceration associated with syringe sharing and fatal overdose. The model was calibrated to HIV and incarceration patterns in Tijuana. We compared a scenario with Escudo (observed incarceration declines for 2 years post-Escudo among PWID from the segmented regression) compared to a counterfactual of no Escudo (continuation of stable pre-Escudo trends), assessing cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective. Using a 2-year intervention effect and 50-year time horizon, we determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, in 2022 USD per disability-adjusted life years [DALYs] averted).FindingsCompared to stable incarceration pre-Escudo, for every three-month interval in the post-Escudo period, recent incarceration among PWID declined by 21% (adjusted relative risk = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.68-0.91). Based on these declines, we estimated 1.7% [95% interval: 0.7%-3.5%] of new HIV cases and 12.2% [4.5%-26.6%] of fatal overdoses among PWID were averted in the 2 years post-Escudo, compared to a counterfactual without Escudo. Escudo was cost-effective (ICER USD 3746/DALY averted compared to a willingness-to-pay threshold of $4842-$13,557).InterpretationEscudo is a cost-effective structural intervention that aligned policing practices and human-rights-based public health practices, which could serve as a model for other settings where policing constitutes structural HIV and overdose risk among PWID.FundingNational Institute on Drug Abuse, UC MEXUS CONACyT, and the San Diego Center for AIDS Research (SD CFAR).

BackgroundNeedle and syringe programs (NSPs) are effective at preventing HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs (PWID), yet global coverage is low, partly because governments lack data on the cost and cost-effectiveness of NSP in their countries to plan and fund their responses. We conducted a global systematic review of unit costs of NSP provision to inform estimation of cost drivers and extrapolated costs to other countries.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review to extract data on the cost per syringe distributed and its cost drivers. We estimated the impact of country-level and program-level variables on the cost per syringe distributed using linear mixed-effects models. These models were used to predict unit costs of NSP provision, with the best performing model used to extrapolate the cost per syringe distributed for 137 countries. The total cost for a comprehensive NSP (200 syringes per PWID/year) was also estimated for 68 countries with PWID population size estimates.ResultsWe identified 55 estimates of the unit cost per syringe distributed from 14 countries. Unit costs were extrapolated for 137 countries, ranging from $0.08 to $20.77 (2020 USD) per syringe distributed. The total estimated spend for a high-coverage, comprehensive NSP across 68 countries with PWID size estimates is $5 035 902 000 for 10 887 500 PWID, 2.1-times higher than current spend.ConclusionOur review identified cost estimates from high-income, upper-middle-income, and lower-middle-income countries. Regression models may be useful for estimating NSP costs in countries without data to inform HIV/HCV prevention programming and policy.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men who ever injected drugs (ever MSM-IDU) carry a high hepatitis C virus (HCV) burden. We estimated whether current HCV testing and treatment in San Francisco can achieve the 2030 World Health Organization (WHO) HCV elimination target on HCV incidence among ever MSM-IDU. METHODS: A dynamic HCV/HIV transmission model among MSM was calibrated to San Francisco data, including HCV antibody (15.5%, 2011) and HIV prevalence (32.8%, 2017) among ever MSM-IDU. MSM had high HCV testing (79%-86% ever tested, 2011-2019) and diagnosed MSM had high HCV treatment (65% ever treated, 2018). Following coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related lockdowns, HCV testing and treatment decreased by 59%. RESULTS: Among all MSM, 43% of incident HCV infections in 2022 were IDU-related. Among ever MSM-IDU in 2015, HCV incidence was 1.2/100 person-years (95% credibility interval [CrI], 0.8-1.6). Assuming COVID-19-related declines in HCV testing/treatment persist until 2030, HCV incidence among ever MSM-IDU will decrease by 84.9% (95% CrI, 72.3%-90.8%) over 2015-2030. This decline is largely attributed to HCV testing and treatment (75.8%; 95% CrI, 66.7%-89.5%). Slightly greater decreases in HCV incidence (94%-95%) are projected if COVID-19 disruptions recover by 2025 or 2022. CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that HCV incidence will decline by >80% over 2015-2030 among ever MSM-IDU in San Francisco, achieving the WHO target.

BackgroundMeasuring the incidence of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) is key to track progress towards elimination. We aimed to summarise global data on HIV and primary HCV incidence among PWID and associations with age and sex or gender.MethodsIn this systematic review and meta-analysis, we updated an existing database of HIV and HCV incidence studies among PWID by searching MEDLINE, Embase, and PsycINFO, capturing studies published between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 12, 2022, with no language or study design restrictions. We contacted authors of identified studies for unpublished or updated data. We included studies that estimated incidence by longitudinally re-testing people at risk of infection or by using assays for recent infection. We pooled incidence and relative risk (RR; young [generally defined as ≤25 years] vs older PWID; women vs men) estimates using random-effects meta-analysis and assessed risk of bias with a modified Newcastle-Ottawa scale. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020220884.FindingsOur updated search identified 9493 publications, of which 211 were eligible for full-text review. An additional 377 full-text records from our existing database and five records identified through cross-referencing were assessed. Including 28 unpublished records, 125 records met the inclusion criteria. We identified 64 estimates of HIV incidence (30 from high-income countries [HICs] and 34 from low-income or middle-income countries [LMICs]) and 66 estimates of HCV incidence (52 from HICs and 14 from LMICs). 41 (64%) of 64 HIV and 42 (64%) of 66 HCV estimates were from single cities rather than being multi-city or nationwide. Estimates were measured over 1987-2021 for HIV and 1992-2021 for HCV. Pooled HIV incidence was 1·7 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1·3-2·3; I2=98·4%) and pooled HCV incidence was 12·1 per 100 person-years (10·0-14·6; I2=97·2%). Young PWID had a greater risk of HIV (RR 1·5, 95% CI 1·2-1·8; I2=66·9%) and HCV (1·5, 1·3-1·8; I2=70·6%) acquisition than older PWID. Women had a greater risk of HIV (RR 1·4, 95% CI 1·1-1·6; I2=55·3%) and HCV (1·2, 1·1-1·3; I2=43·3%) acquisition than men. For both HIV and HCV, the median risk-of-bias score was 6 (IQR 6-7), indicating moderate risk.InterpretationAlthough sparse, available HIV and HCV incidence estimates offer insights into global levels of HIV and HCV transmission among PWID. Intensified efforts are needed to keep track of the HIV and HCV epidemics among PWID and to expand access to age-appropriate and gender-appropriate prevention services that serve young PWID and women who inject drugs.FundingCanadian Institutes of Health Research, Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé, Canadian Network on Hepatitis C, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, and WHO.

Author(s): Aaron G. Lim, Nick Scott, Josephine G. Walker, Saeed Hamid, Margaret Hellard, Peter Vickerman The second sentence of the Acknowledgments is incomplete. The complete sentence reads: AGL, JW, and [...]

Background and aimsThe individual-level effectiveness of opioid agonist treatment (OAT) in reducing mortality is well established, but there is less evidence on population-level benefits. We use modeling informed with linked data from the OAT program in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, to estimate the impact of OAT provision in the community and prisons on mortality and the impact of eliminating excess mortality during OAT initiation/discontinuation.DesignDynamic modeling.Setting and participantsA cohort of 49 359 individuals who ever received OAT in NSW from 2001 to 2018.MeasurementsReceipt of OAT was represented through five stages: (i) first month on OAT, (ii) short (1-9 months) and (iii) longer (9+ months) duration on OAT, (iv) first month following OAT discontinuation and (v) rest of time following OAT discontinuation. Incarceration was represented as four strata: (i) never or not incarcerated in the past year, (ii) currently incarcerated, (iii) released from prison within the past month and (iv) released from prison 1-12 months ago. The model incorporated elevated mortality post-release from prison and OAT impact on reducing mortality and incarceration.FindingsAmong the cohort, mortality was 0.9 per 100 person-years, OAT coverage and retention remained high (> 50%, 1.74 years/episode). During 2001-20, we estimate that OAT provision reduced overdose and other cause mortality among the cohort by 52.8% [95% credible interval (CrI) = 49.4-56.9%] and 26.6% (95% CrI =22.1-30.5%), respectively. We estimate 1.2 deaths averted and 9.7 life-years gained per 100 person-years on OAT. Prison OAT with post-release OAT-linkage accounted for 12.4% (95% CrI = 11.5-13.5%) of all deaths averted by the OAT program, primarily through preventing deaths in the first month post-release. Preventing elevated mortality during OAT initiation and discontinuation could have averted up to 1.4% (95% CrI =  0.8-2.0%) and 3.0% (95% CrI = 2.1-5.3%) of deaths, respectively.ConclusionThe community and prison opioid agonist treatment program in New South Wales, Australia appears to have substantially reduced population-level overdose and all-cause mortality in the past 20 years, partially due to high retention.

Tijuana, Mexico, has a concentrated HIV epidemic among overlapping key populations (KPs) including people who inject drugs (PWID), female sex workers (FSW), their male clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM). We developed a dynamic HIV transmission model among these KPs to determine the extent to which their unmet prevention and treatment needs is driving HIV transmission. Over 2020-2029 we estimated the proportion of new infections acquired in each KP, and the proportion due to their unprotected risk behaviours. We estimate that 43.7% and 55.3% of new infections are among MSM and PWID, respectively, with FSW and their clients making-up

BackgroundTo achieve elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, limited resources can be best allocated through estimation of "care cascades" among groups disproportionately affected. In San Francisco and elsewhere, these groups include young (age ≤ 30 years) people who inject drugs (YPWID), men who have sex with men who inject drugs (MSM-IDU), and low-income trans women.MethodsWe developed cross-sectional HCV care cascades for YPWID, MSM-IDU, and trans women using diverse data sources. Population sizes were estimated using an inverse variance-weighted average of estimates from the peer-reviewed literature between 2013 and 2019. Proportions of past/current HCV infection, diagnosed infection, treatment initiation, and evidence of cure (sustained virologic response at 12 weeks posttreatment) were estimated from the literature using data from 7 programs and studies in San Francisco between 2015 and 2020.ResultsThe estimated number of YPWID in San Francisco was 3748; 58.4% had past/current HCV infection, of whom 66.4% were diagnosed with current infection, 9.1% had initiated treatment, and 50% had confirmed cure. The corresponding figures for the 8135 estimated MSM-IDU were: 29.4% with past/current HCV infection, 70.3% diagnosed with current infection, 28.4% initiated treatment, and 38.9% with confirmed cure. For the estimated 951 low-income trans women, 24.8% had past/current HCV infection, 68.9% were diagnosed with current infection, 56.5% initiated treatment, and 75.5% had confirmed cure.ConclusionsIn all 3 populations, diagnosis rates were relatively high; however, attention is needed to urgently increase treatment initiation in all groups, with a particular unmet need among YPWID.

ObjectiveTo assess the relationship between experiencing homelessness and assisting injection drug use (IDU) initiation among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Tijuana, Mexico and Vancouver, Canada.MethodsWe used self-reported questionnaire data collected semi-annually on PWID from Tijuana (n = 703) and Vancouver (n = 1551) between 2014 and 2017. Within each setting, the effect of recent (i.e., past six months) homelessness on recent provision of injection initiation assistance (i.e., helping anybody inject for the first time in the past six months) was estimated using inverse-probability-of-treatment (IPT)-weighted estimation of a marginal structural model.ResultsAcross follow-up, the prevalence of recent homelessness at a given visit ranged from 11.6%-16.5% among Tijuana-based participants and 9.4%-18.9% among Vancouver-based participants; the prevalence of recent provision of injection initiation at a given follow-up visit was lower, ranging from 3.3%-5.4% in Tijuana and 2.5%-4.1% in Vancouver. Based on the IPT-weighted estimates, recent homelessness was associated with 66% greater odds among Tijuana-based PWID (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] = 1.66; 95% CI: 1.01-2.73) and 47% greater odds among Vancouver-based PWID (AOR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.02-2.13) of providing injection initiation assistance over the same six-month period.ConclusionWe found that recently experiencing homelessness was associated with an increased likelihood of PWID reporting IDU initiation assistance over time in both Tijuana and Vancouver. Addressing homelessness may decrease the initiation of IDU via multiple pathways.

BackgroundPeople who inject drugs (PWID) are at increased risk for HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and also have high levels of homelessness and unstable housing. We assessed whether homelessness or unstable housing is associated with an increased risk of HIV or HCV acquisition among PWID compared with PWID who are not homeless or are stably housed.MethodsIn this systematic review and meta-analysis, we updated an existing database of HIV and HCV incidence studies published between Jan 1, 2000, and June 13, 2017. Using the same strategy as for this existing database, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, and PsycINFO for studies, including conference abstracts, published between June 13, 2017, and Sept 14, 2020, that estimated HIV or HCV incidence, or both, among community-recruited PWID. We only included studies reporting original results without restrictions to study design or language. We contacted authors of studies that reported HIV or HCV incidence, or both, but did not report on an association with homelessness or unstable housing, to request crude data and, where possible, adjusted effect estimates. We extracted effect estimates and pooled data using random-effects meta-analyses to quantify the associations between recent (current or within the past year) homelessness or unstable housing compared with not recent homelessness or unstable housing, and risk of HIV or HCV acquisition. We assessed risk of bias using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and between-study heterogeneity using the I2 statistic and p value for heterogeneity.FindingsWe identified 14 351 references in our database search, of which 392 were subjected to full-text review alongside 277 studies from our existing database. Of these studies, 55 studies met inclusion criteria. We contacted the authors of 227 studies that reported HIV or HCV incidence in PWID but did not report association with the exposure of interest and obtained 48 unpublished estimates from 21 studies. After removal of duplicate data, we included 37 studies with 70 estimates (26 for HIV; 44 for HCV). Studies originated from 16 countries including in North America, Europe, Australia, east Africa, and Asia. Pooling unadjusted estimates, recent homelessness or unstable housing was associated with an increased risk of acquiring HIV (crude relative risk [cRR] 1·55 [95% CI 1·23-1·95; p=0·0002]; I2= 62·7%; n=17) and HCV (1·65 [1·44-1·90; p

IntroductionOver half of those hepatitis C virus (HCV)/HIV coinfected live in low-income and middle-income countries, and many remain undiagnosed or untreated. In 2016, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) established a direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment programme for people HCV/HIV coinfected in Myanmar. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the real-world cost and cost-effectiveness of this programme, and potential cost-effectiveness if implemented by the Ministry of Health (MoH).MethodsCosts (patient-level microcosting) and treatment outcomes were collected from the MSF prospective cohort study in Dawei, Myanmar. A Markov model was used to assess cost-effectiveness of the programme compared with no HCV treatment from a health provider perspective. Estimated lifetime and healthcare costs (in 2017 US$) and health outcomes (in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)) were simulated to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), compared with a willingness-to-pay threshold of per capita Gross Domestic Product in Myanmar ($1250). We evaluated cost-effectiveness with updated quality-assured generic DAA prices and potential cost-effectiveness of a proposed simplified treatment protocol with updated DAA prices if implemented by the MoH.ResultsFrom November 2016 to October 2017, 122 with HIV/HCV-coinfected patients were treated with DAAs (46% with cirrhosis), 96% (n=117) achieved sustained virological response. Mean treatment costs were $1229 (without cirrhosis) and $1971 (with cirrhosis), with DAA drugs being the largest contributor to cost. Compared with no treatment, the program was cost-effective (ICER $634/DALY averted); more so with updated prices for quality-assured generic DAAs (ICER $488/DALY averted). A simplified treatment protocol delivered by the MoH could be cost-effective if associated with similar outcomes (ICER $316/DALY averted).ConclusionsUsing MSF programme data, the DAA treatment programme for HCV among HIV-coinfected individuals is cost-effective in Myanmar, and even more so with updated DAA prices. A simplified treatment protocol could enhance cost-effectiveness if further rollout demonstrates it is not associated with worse treatment outcomes.

OBJECTIVE:From 2011 to 2013, the Global Fund (GF) supported needle and syringe programmes in Mexico to prevent transmission of HIV among people who inject drugs. It remains unclear how GF withdrawal affected the costs, quality and coverage of needle and syringe programme provision. DESIGN:Costing study and longitudinal cohort study. SETTING:Tijuana, Mexico. PARTICIPANTS:Personnel from a local needle and syringe programme (n=6) and people who inject drugs (n=734) participating in a longitudinal study. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES:Provision of needle and syringe programme services and cost (per contact and per syringe distributed, in 2017 $USD) during GF support (2012) and after withdrawal (2015/16). An additional outcome included needle and syringe programme utilisation from a concurrent cohort of people who inject drugs during and after GF withdrawal. RESULTS:During the GF period, the needle and syringe programme distributed 55 920 syringes to 932 contacts (60 syringes/contact) across 14 geographical locations. After GF withdrew, the needle and syringe programme distributed 10 700 syringes to 2140 contacts (five syringes/contact) across three geographical locations. During the GF period, the cost per harm reduction contact was approximately 10-fold higher compared with after GF ($44.72 vs $3.81); however, the cost per syringe distributed was nearly equal ($0.75 vs $0.76) due to differences in syringes per contact and reductions in ancillary kit components. The mean log odds of accessing a needle and syringe programme in the post-GF period was significantly lower than during the GF period (p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS:Withdrawal of GF support for needle and syringe programme provision in Mexico was associated with a substantial drop in provision of sterile syringes, geographical coverage and recent clean syringe utilisation among people who inject drugs. Better planning is required to ensure harm reduction programme sustainability is at scale after donor withdrawal.

BackgroundHCV direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are produced in India at low cost. However, concerns surrounding reinfection and budgetary impact limit treatment scale-up in India. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness and budgetary impact of HCV treatment in India, including reinfection.MethodsA closed cohort Markov model of HCV disease progression, treatment, and reinfection was parameterized. We compared treatment by fibrosis stage (F2-F4 or F0-F4) to no treatment from a health care payer perspective. Costs (2017 USD$, based on India-specific data) and health utilities (in quality-adjusted life years, QALYs) were attached to each health state. We assumed DAAs with 90% sustained viral response at $900/treatment and 1%/year reinfection, varied in the sensitivity analysis from 0.1-15%. We deemed the intervention cost-effective if the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) fell below India's per capita GDP ($1,709). We assessed the budgetary impact of treating all diagnosed individuals.ResultsHCV treatment for diagnosed F2-F4 individuals was cost-saving (net costs -$2,881 and net QALYs 3.18/person treated; negative ICER) compared to no treatment. HCV treatment remained cost-saving with reinfection rates of 15%/year. Treating all diagnosed individuals was likely cost-effective compared to delay until F2 (mean ICER $1,586/QALY gained, 67% of simulations falling under the $1,709 threshold) with 1%/year reinfection. For all scenarios, annual retesting for reinfection was more cost-effective than the current policy (one-time retest). Treating all diagnosed individuals and reinfections results in net costs of $445-1,334 million over 5 years (

BackgroundHCV incidence is increasing in the US, notably among younger people who inject drugs (PWID). In a cohort of young adult (age