13 results on '"VECM analysis"'
Search Results
2. An Analysis of the Relationship between Business Confidence and Macroeconomic Factors: Türkiye Case.
- Author
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AKKAYA, Murat
- Abstract
Copyright of Afyon Kocatepe University Journal of Social Sciences / Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi is the property of Afyon Kocatepe University (AKU) Sosyal Bilimler Enstitusu and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Analysis of the Co-integration Between the Number of Cruise Tourists and the World Unemployment Rate
- Author
-
Erdal Arlı, Mehmet Sıtkı Saygılı, and Duygu Ülker
- Subjects
cruise shipping ,marine tourism ,co-integration test ,vecm analysis ,world unemployment rate ,Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering ,VM1-989 - Abstract
Cruise tourism has a great share in marine tourism and appears to be a fast-growing and income-generating sector in the travel industry. The cruise industry, which has a worldwide income of over 27 billion dollars, contributes to employment through the job opportunities it offers. The aim of this study is to analyze whether there is a short- and long-term co-integration relationship between the number of cruise tourists in the world and the world unemployment rate. In this context, data between 1991 and 2019 were analyzed using the Granger causality and vector error correction (VECM) methods. According to the results, there is an equilibrium relationship between the two series in the long term, a 1% change in the number of world cruise tourists reduces the world unemployment rate by 7.6%, and an imbalance between the two series in the short term will reach equilibrium after approximately three years.
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Analysis of the Co-integration Between the Number of Cruise Tourists and the World Unemployment Rate.
- Author
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Arlı, Erdal, Saygılı, Mehmet Sıtkı, and Ülker, Duygu
- Subjects
TOURISTS ,UNEMPLOYMENT ,VECTOR error-correction models ,TOURISM ,HOSPITALITY industry - Abstract
Cruise tourism has a great share in marine tourism and appears to be a fast-growing and income-generating sector in the travel industry. The cruise industry, which has a worldwide income of over 27 billion dollars, contributes to employment through the job opportunities it offers. The aim of this study is to analyze whether there is a short- and long-term co-integration relationship between the number of cruise tourists in the world and the world unemployment rate. In this context, data between 1991 and 2019 were analyzed using the Granger causality and vector error correction (VECM) methods. According to the results, there is an equilibrium relationship between the two series in the long term, a 1% change in the number of world cruise tourists reduces the world unemployment rate by 7.6%, and an imbalance between the two series in the short term will reach equilibrium after approximately three years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. Vergi Aflarının Vergi Gelirlerine Etkisi Üzerine Ampirik Bir İnceleme.
- Author
-
Gözen, Serhat and Temür, Yusuf
- Abstract
Copyright of Journal of Emerging Economies & Policy is the property of JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies & Policy and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
- Published
- 2022
6. The Trade-Off Between Tourism and Pollution for Japanese Economic Growth.
- Author
-
Bella, Giovanni and Massidda, Carla
- Subjects
ECONOMIC expansion ,KUZNETS curve ,POLLUTION ,TOURISM ,SUSTAINABLE development ,POLLUTION control industry ,INTERNATIONAL tourism - Abstract
This paper proposes a vector error correction model to investigate the relationship between polluting emissions and GDP levels in Japan, in the period 1970-2014, and tests the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis driven by tourist arrivals. Our results validate the existence of two different causality channels among the selected variables. In particular, we find that a trade-off might exist between increasing the number of tourists, which drives economic growth, and the pattern of a sustainable development, due to the increase of polluting emissions. The analysis allows us to propose appropriate policy strategies to promote a robust and sustainable long run economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
7. ARE SUPPORT POLICIES FOR SUSTAINABLE LIVESTOCK IMPORTANT? CAUSALITY BETWEEN ANIMAL EXISTENCE AND SUPPORT POLICIES: VECM ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY.
- Author
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Erdal, H., Erdal, G., and Ayyildiz, B.
- Subjects
- *
ANIMAL welfare , *POLICY analysis , *LIVESTOCK , *ANIMAL development , *ANIMAL breeding , *BIOLOGICAL nomenclature - Abstract
Parallel to the ever-increasing world population, the demand for animal-derived protein is also increasing. Countries are reviewing animal production growth and development to cover the increasing demand for animal-derived protein. On the other hand, there are intense discussions regarding the protection of the natural resource base and the global environment. The Agricultural Organization (FAO), is considering the concerns at the focus of the discussions, is developing strategies and policy proposals, especially in developing countries, on issues regarding sustainable animal agriculture. In this case, generally, agriculture policies of countries and livestock support policies in particular are important. In addition, the supports are a driving force in the development of animal genetics, increasing the number of animals, development of animal breeds, and enhancing animal welfare. For Turkey, which has a large and growing population, this issue is very important. It is noteworthy in terms of the support for animal production to provide sustainable livestock in Turkey, especially in agricultural policies. In this sense, as a primary target in Turkey, to accelerate the animal presence, a systematic and increasing rate of support payments per animal have been realized since 2000s. In the present study, it was investigated whether livestock support policies had effects on ensuring sustainable livestock in Turkey, moreover the presence of a causality relation between animal presence and support policies was also examined. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was employed to explain the causal relationships. The analyses were applied to the panel dataset for the period of 2004-2014 at the European Union regional statistics system (Nomenclature d'Unités Territoriales Statistiques (NUTS) Level 2 (26 sub-regions) regions. According to VECM results, a bilateral causality was determined between the support payments applied in the short term and animal presence. The result showed that livestock support policies implemented in Turkey is important for the sustainability of animal production. The geographical conditions and the level of economic development of each region in Turkey must be considered, and special support items must be provided at the regional level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
8. An Empirical Review Over Effects Of Tax Amnesties On Tax Revenues
- Author
-
GÖZEN, Serhat and TEMÜR, Yusuf
- Subjects
Vergi Affı ,Vergi Uyumu ,Vergi Gelirleri ,VECM Analizi ,Tax Amnesties ,Tax Compliance ,Tax Revenues ,VECM Analysis ,Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary ,Sosyal Bilimler, Disiplinler Arası - Abstract
20. yy. ikinci yarısından itibaren pek çok ülkede başta ekonomik olmak üzere siyasal, mali, ekonomik, psikolojik ve sosyal nedenlerle vergi afları uygulandığı görülmektedir. Ancak sıklıkla uygulanan vergi afları mükellefler için faydalı bir uygulama olurken kamu gelirinin zamanında ve tam olarak tahsil edilmesi noktasında aksaklık oluşturabilmektedir. Öyle ki bu durum mükelleflerin vergiye uyumunu olumsuz etkileyebilmektedir. Bu durumda Türkiye’de 1924-2017 döneminde 36 tane vergi affına yönelik kanunun yürürlüğü girdiği de dikkate alındığında bu durumun vergi gelirlerine olan etkisi de muhakkak önemli bir sonuca işaret edecektir. Bu nedenle çalışmada vergi afları ve vergi gelirleri arasındaki ilişkinin niceliksel olarak ortaya konulması amaçlanmaktadır. 1980-2016 yılları için yapılan Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VECM) ile vergi aflarının vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkisi analiz edilmiştir. VECM analiziyle vergi aflarının vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkisinin oldukça düşük olduğu tespit edilmiştir., Since the second half of the 20th century, tax amnesties have been applied in many countries for primarily economic, political, financial, economic, psychological and social reasons. However, while tax amnesties, which are frequently applied, are a beneficial practice for taxpayers, they may cause disruption in the timely and full collection of public revenues. It is a fact that this situation affects taxpayers' tax compliance negatively. In this case, considering that 36 tax amnesty laws entered into force in Turkey between 1924 and 2017, the effect of this situation on tax revenues will certainly point to an important result. For this reason, it is aimed to quantitatively reveal the relationship between tax amnesties and tax revenues in this study. With the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) made for the years 1980-2016, the effect of tax amnesties on tax revenues was analyzed. In the VECM analysis, it is seen that the effect of tax amnesties on tax revenues is quite low.
- Published
- 2022
9. Estimating the tourism induced environmental Kuznets curve in France.
- Author
-
Bella, Giovanni
- Subjects
- *
KUZNETS curve , *SUSTAINABLE tourism , *VECTOR error-correction models , *ECONOMIC development - Abstract
France has retained its position as the world's favourite tourism destination. Accounting for around 83 million visitors and 4.2% of the total employment, the tourism sector in France contributes to nearly 9% of the total GDP. However, as reported by the World Tourism Organization, road and air travel related to tourism activities account for approximately 10% of the total CO2 emissions in the atmosphere, thereby contributing to severe air pollution. Thus, initiatives are necessary to prevent environmental damage that could have a corresponding detrimental effect on the tourism industry itself and slow down the country's economic growth. This study utilises a vector error correction model (VECM) to investigate the relationship between polluting emissions, GDP levels, and tourism flows in France to test the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for the period 1995-2014. Additionally, based on a joint analysis of long-run parameters and causality links, appropriate policy strategies are proposed to promote robust and sustainable long-run economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
10. The Trade-Off Between Tourism and Pollution for Japanese Economic Growth
- Author
-
Carla Massidda and Giovanni Bella
- Subjects
Pollution ,environmental Kuznets curve ,tourism pollution ,VECM analysis ,long run causality ,Japan ,Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management ,Long run causality ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Economics ,International economics ,Trade-off ,Tourism ,media_common - Abstract
This paper proposes a vector error correction model to investigate the relationship between polluting emissions and GDP levels in Japan, in the period 1970-2014, and tests the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis driven by tourist arrivals. Our results validate the existence of two different causality channels among the selected variables. In particular, we find that a trade-off might exist between increasing the number of tourists, which drives economic growth, and the pattern of a sustainable development, due to the increase of polluting emissions. The analysis allows us to propose appropriate policy strategies to promote a robust and sustainable long run economic growth.
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
11. Are support policies for sustainable livestock important? Causality between animal existence and support policies: Vecm analysis for Turkey
- Author
-
Erdal H., Erdal G., Ayyildiz B., Tokat Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi, Erdal H., and Erdal G.
- Subjects
Causality ,Support Policies ,Sustainable Livestock ,VECM Analysis ,Animal Existence - Abstract
Parallel to the ever-increasing world population, the demand for animal-derived protein is also increasing. Countries are reviewing animal production growth and development to cover the increasing demand for animal-derived protein. On the other hand, there are intense discussions regarding the protection of the natural resource base and the global environment. The Agricultural Organization (FAO), is considering the concerns at the focus of the discussions, is developing strategies and policy proposals, especially in developing countries, on issues regarding sustainable animal agriculture. In this case, generally, agriculture policies of countries and livestock support policies in particular are important. In addition, the supports are a driving force in the development of animal genetics, increasing the number of animals, development of animal breeds, and enhancing animal welfare. For Turkey, which has a large and growing population, this issue is very important. It is noteworthy in terms of the support for animal production to provide sustainable livestock in Turkey, especially in agricultural policies. In this sense, as a primary target in Turkey, to accelerate the animal presence, a systematic and increasing rate of support payments per animal have been realized since 2000s. In the present study, it was investigated whether livestock support policies had effects on ensuring sustainable livestock in Turkey, moreover the presence of a causality relation between animal presence and support policies was also examined. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was employed to explain the causal relationships. The analyses were applied to the panel dataset for the period of 2004-2014 at the European Union regional statistics system (Nomenclature d'Unités Territoriales Statistiques (NUTS) Level 2 (26 sub-regions) regions. According to VECM results, a bilateral causality was determined between the support payments applied in the short term and animal presence. The result showed that livestock support policies implemented in Turkey is important for the sustainability of animal production. The geographical conditions and the level of economic development of each region in Turkey must be considered, and special support items must be provided at the regional level. © 2021, Pakistan Agricultural Scientists Forum. All rights reserved.
- Published
- 2021
12. The Dutch Disease: evidences from Russia.
- Author
-
Algieri, Bernardina
- Subjects
DUTCH disease (Economics) ,FOREIGN exchange rates ,GROSS domestic product ,MANUFACTURING industries ,REAL wages - Abstract
The present study examines whether the Russian economy exhibits the symptoms of the Dutch Disease over the transition period begun in the early 1990s. Five warning signs have been detected, namely, a real exchange rate appreciation (1); a flourishing economic situation pushed by higher oil prices (2); a relative de-industrialisation (3); an export reduction in the non-booming-sector (4) and a real wage growth (5). The first three symptoms are estimated simultaneously in a VECM dimension. The results suggest the existence of three long-run cointegrating vectors, thus confirming the presence of the first three symptoms. Specifically, a 10% oil price shock leads to a real appreciation by 4%, a rise in GDP by 3% and a decline in domestic manufacturing production vis-à-vis service production by another 3%. Finally, a number of manufacturing exports have been crowded out and real wages have recorded important increases. To a certain extent, this corroborates the presence of symptom 4 and 5. The paper concludes that the risk of the Dutch Disease exists, and two preventive thrusts of action could be undertaken to reduce its threat: namely to diversify the economy and to hold back the appreciation of the exchange rate through targeted fiscal and monetary policies. These instruments would render Russia less vulnerable to exogenous shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
13. Investigating credit transmission mechanism in the Republic of Macedonia: Evidence from Vector Error Correction Model
- Author
-
Eliskovski, Milan
- Subjects
ddc:330 ,monetary transmission ,G21 ,bank lending channel ,E58 ,credit rationing ,E52 ,C22 ,VECM analysis - Abstract
Research subject of this paper is the credit transmission mechanism in the Republic of Macedonia or in other words this paper investigates the effects of the monetary signals by the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia on banks' lending. The credit transmission is analyzed through its narrow nature or so called bank lending channel. In order to explain how the bank lending channel operates in Macedonia, two theoretical models are considered and econometrically tested. The first one is the traditional bank lending channel explained by Bernanke and Blinder model and the second one is the credit rationing model by Stiglitz and Weiss. The econometric technique employed is the vector error correction model or known as Johansen cointegration technique which is appropriate for empirical testing based on time series. The empirical results suggest that the Stiglitz and Weiss model better explains the banks' behavior in the Republic of Macedonia, that is the banking sector is risk averse and rations loans with an aim not to deteriorate its' profitability. Therefore, monetary tightening signals clearly affect the banks to restrict lending. On the other hand, the monetary expansionary signals have to be supported by favorable balance sheet structure of the banks as well as by favorable macroeconomic conditions in order to encourage lending.
- Published
- 2018
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