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Yield forecasts for EU summer crops revised further downwards According to the crop monitoring Bulletin for Europe, at EU level, the yield forecasts for all summer crops were revised downwards, most markedly for Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. Overall, the EU-level yield forecast for summer crops is now close to the 5-year average. Severe drought conditions continued in eastern Romania, eastern Bulgaria, and southern Ukraine, with further negative impacts mainly on maize and sunflowers. Drought is now also observed in north-eastern Greece, the country’s main sunflower production region, and a prolonged precipitation deficit has started to impact maize in central Ukraine. In western Europe, the heatwaves reported in August were followed by a drop in temperatures, but a precipitation deficit continued in large parts of France, Belgium, Luxembourg, western Germany and the southern Netherlands, further diminishing the yield expectations for summer crops in these regions (mainly maize, sugar beet and potatoes). In Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom, frequent and abundant precipitation since mid-August negatively affected the ripening and harvesting of spring and winter cereals. Favourable conditions prevailed in central and northern Europe. A surplus of precipitation benefited summer crops in northern Italy, Austria, Slovakia, Czechia, Poland and Belarus., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the October issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, warm and dry summer weather followed by a period of abundant, but sometimes excessive rainfall since the end of September, hampered field work in large parts of Europe. These wet conditions at the end of September and October caused delays to the harvesting of summer crops as well as to sowing activities in western and southwestern France, the Benelux, southern Poland, eastern Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. For winter rapeseed, the sowing window has come to an end. For winter cereals, timely completion of the sowing campaign is still possible in the coming weeks. At EU level, the yield forecasts for all summer crops were revised downwards, mostly based on a reanalysis of data since the start of the season, JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the November issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe – favourable weather conditions since mid-October allowed the sowing of winter cereals to catch up in most of Europe. However, sowing activities remain behind in eastern Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. Favourable conditions arrived too late for rapeseed sowing in several of the main producing countries, and – at EU level - the area sown is expected to be below last year’s level and the 5-year average., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the December issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe – in most agricultural regions of eastern and northern Europe, autumn 2020 was the warmest on the MARS records. November was the second warmest November in most of Europe. As a consequence of the prevailing mild conditions, the build-up of frost tolerance in winter wheat started much later than usual, and remains weak in most of western, southern, central and south-eastern Europe. Areas where winter crops are underdeveloped as a consequence of delayed sowing - as is the case in large parts of eastern Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania - are particularly vulnerable. Localised and minor frost-kill events are expected to have occurred already in northern Romania, due to a cold air intrusion at the end of November and the beginning of December. More widespread minor to moderate frost-kill events are likely to have occurred in the Volga okrug of European Russia., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to this May issue of the crop monitoring Bulletin for Europe, the yield forecasts for almost all crops were revised downwards at the EU level, and most markedly for rapeseed, winter barley and winter wheat. In the case of spring barley, an upward revision of the yield forecast in Spain counterbalanced the downward revision in other countries. As the summer crop season has just started, most of the country-level yield forecasts for summer crops are still based on historical trends or average values. In much of western, central and eastern Europe, weather conditions were similar to those reported in the April Bulletin: predominantly above-average temperatures, high radiation levels, and insufficient precipitation to replenish soil moisture levels for the growth of winter and early-sown spring crops. Little or no rain is forecast for the coming days in most of these regions, where winter cereals are approaching the sensitive flowering stage. In the case of rapeseed, the conditions of water stress already experienced partially coincided with the flowering and/or early grain filling stage. In eastern Romania and western Ukraine, crops are stunted and present signs of wilting and early leaf senescence. Rainfall since the end of April facilitated the sowing and emergence of late-planted spring crops and summer crops in these regions, alleviating the difficulties caused by very dry top soils (as mentioned in the April issue of the Bulletin). However, many emerging crops present uneven or patchy stands due to the previous dry conditions, and will require more rainfall to adequately sustain growth. In contrast, a favourable rainfall surplus was observed in western and eastern Mediterranean countries. Favourable weather conditions also prevailed in northern Europe and the Atlantic region. Rainfall in the Maghreb region occurred too late in the season to be beneficial for winter crops., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to this June issue of the crop monitoring Bulletin for Europe, the yield forecasts for EU winter crops, (mainly wheat, barley and rapeseed) were revised downwards by around 2% compared to May, mainly because of sharp downward revisions for France, Romania and the Benelux countries. The yield outlook for winter crops is now clearly below the 5-year average. A main reason for the poor outlook for winter cereals is a distinct rain deficit that persisted in much of north-western Europe as well as in Hungary and eastern Romania. Recent rains in several of the regions affected arrived too late to improve this negative outlook. Improved outlook for grain maize and sunflowers In contrast, the yield forecasts for EU summer crops such as grain maize and sunflowers were revised upwards, mainly because of the timely arrival of rains in May and June which helped improve the outlook - or to sustain an already positive outlook - for these crops in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Spain. The forecasts for grain maize and sunflowers are currently well above the 5-year average. The yield outlook for spring barley slightly improved at the EU level, due to an upward revision for Spain which outweighed the downward revisions for France, Poland, Germany and several other countries., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the March 2020 issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin the 2019/2020 winter was one of the warmest in its records (since 1979). In most regions, mean daily temperature exceeded the long-term-average by 2 °C to 4 °C. Even higher temperature anomalies prevailed in eastern and northern Europe. As a consequence of the mild winter, winter crops in central, eastern and northern Europe are generally in good condition. Warmer-than-usual weather is promoting early spring re-growth,with potential yield benefits. Downsides attached to the mild winter are that increased pest and disease pressure can be expected later in spring, and that early developed crops — and especially fruit trees — might be more vulnerable to spring frost events. Significant lack of precipitation has been observed in the main durum wheat producing regions (southern Italy, large parts of Spain, Greece), as well as in large parts of southern and eastern Romania, northern Bulgaria and in the Maghreb region. However, in most of these regions, sufficient rain is forecast to avoid imminent impact on crop yield potentials. Excessive wetness in north-western Europe In contrast, important grain producing regions in north-western Europe (France, Benelux countries, Germany, United Kingdom) faced excessively wet conditions, especially in February and the beginning of March. In these regions, winter crops often did not yet establish well and necessary field operations were hampered. Spring crops sowings are also delayed in these regions and the more settled weather forecast for the second half of March may not be sufficient to allow field operations to fully catch up. In this issue, a first estimate is also given of crop yield forecasts at national level, which at this early stage of the season are mostly based on an analysis of historical trends., JRC.D.5-Food Security

The review period for this issue of the Bulletin (1 January to 10 February) was, again, warmer than usual throughout Europe. In large parts of France and many regions surrounding the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and in eastern Europe it was the warmest 1 January to 10 February period on our records (since 1979). As a consequence of the very mild weather conditions, the frost tolerance in winter cereals – built-up to protect the crops in case of a cold-air intrusion – remains considerably weaker than usual in Germany, Poland, the Baltic countries, southern Scandinavia, the Balkan region, south-western Russia, Ukraine and the British Isles. In several of these regions, the level of winter hardening is now even lower than reported in the January issue of the Bulletin. In Mediterranean regions and the northern half of the Iberian peninsula, the warmer-than-usual conditions are accompanied by a marked deficit in precipitation. In Romania, the drought conditions reported in the January issue of the Bulletin were alleviated by some rain in late January; however, this was insufficient to offset the cumulative deficit (as did occur in southern Ukraine). Likewise, in southern Italy and Greece, the precipitation forecast for the coming week will not be sufficient to counterbalance the winter deficit. In most of the regions affected, this will not have a direct impact on crops, but above-average rainfall will be needed at the end of winter and in early spring, to sustain optimal regrowth of winter cereals. However, in parts of the Maghreb region (e.g. central Morocco, western Algeria) the persistent rain deficit is starting to impact biomass accumulation of wheat., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the October issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, farmers in many parts of Europe had trouble harvesting summer crops and sowing the winter crops for next year’s season, either because it was too dry or because it was too wet. Rapeseed sowing activities were particularly affected. Frequent and abundant rainfall hampered the harvesting of summer crops in the British Isles, part of the Benelux countries, northern Germany, Denmark and southern Sweden. In these regions, sugar beet, potatoes and green maize crops are the most affected. The winter sowing campaign also faced delays in these regions. Dry conditions hampered the sowing of winter crops in northern France, Germany, north-eastern Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Spain as well as in western Ukraine. In most of these regions, rain arrived too late to complete the sowing of rapeseed within the optimal window, which is likely to result in a reduced rapeseed area. The sowing window for winter cereals is still open, but more rain will be needed in most of these regions to sustain adequate stand formation. Once again, the yield forecasts for summer crops were revised slightly downward., JRC.D.5-Food Security

The July issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe – reports that the recent near-average weather conditions, with well-distributed rainfall and relatively few hot spells, have been favourable to crops in many parts of Europe. However, extreme weather events in much of central Europe, south-western Finland and southern Russia had significant negative impacts, mostly on winter crops. The predominantly favourable weather conditions contributed to an improved yield outlook in several regions. Compared to the yield forecasts presented in the June issue of the Bulletin, the strongest upward revision at EU level was for spring barley (+6.4%), reflecting improved or continued favourable conditions in almost all major producing countries. However, the forecast for winter wheat was slightly revised further downwards. This was mainly due to the sharp downward revisions of the yield forecast in Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary associated with a very unfavourable season worsened by heavy rain around ripening which outweighed the slight upward revisions in most other countries. For most other winter crops and summer crops, the balance was slightly positive. The yield forecasts for grain maize and sunflowers remain well above the 5-year average, reflecting a sustained positive outlook in all of the main producing countries., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the January 2020 issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, the 1 December to 20 January period was warmer than usual throughout Europe. The most marked anomalies occurred in large parts of France and northern-central and eastern Europe, for which this period (1 December to 20 January) was one of the warmest in our records. In southern regions, December was very mild but January temperatures so far have been close to average. It is still too early to fully assess the impacts of the unusually mild winter conditions on crop yield potential. One positive effect of the mild first half of winter is that late-sown winter cereal crops had more time to establish. Moreover, there have so far been no significant occurrences of frost damage to winter crops in the EU. However, there are also negative effects. Primarily, frost tolerance (usually referred to as winter hardening) is weakly developed. Compared to an average year, the hardening of winter crops remains particularly poor in southern Sweden, Germany, Poland, the Baltic countries, Belarus, the north-western part of European Russia and western Ukraine. This means that in these regions, crops are particularly vulnerable to frost damage in the event of a cold air intrusion, although such an event is not expected within the current weather forecast period (until 31 January). Another drawback is that pest and disease pressure can be expected to be higher than usual following a mild winter. In addition, several parts of Europe experienced much drier-than-usual conditions: this includes the persistent lack of precipitation in southern Italy (in the most important regions for durum wheat), large parts of Germany, western Poland and western Czechia, large parts of the Balkan region, Bulgaria, Romania, central and western Ukraine, western Turkey and western Morocco. In several of these regions, dry conditions have prevailed since autumn. During winter, these conditions mainly affect soil moisture and ground water replenishment, rather than having a direct impact on crops. The overall balance of positive and negative effects will depend on how the winter season evolves., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the December issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, which was published today, thermal conditions have been much milder than usual in central, eastern, and south-eastern Europe. In most of these regions, above-average temperatures have prevailed since early October. Consequently, the build-up of frost tolerance in winter cereals (hardening) has lagged behind and is much weaker than usual. The current situation is delicate, because winter crops in many of these regions are underdeveloped due to delayed sowing and inadequate soil moisture conditions, which, combined with reduced cold tolerance, makes them particularly vulnerable to frost damage. According to the current weather forecast (until 20 December), the warmer-than-usual conditions are likely to continue, with the most pronounced warm anomalies (up to 8°C above the long-term average) in eastern and south-eastern Europe. As a consequence, no frost damage is expected during this period, but hardening will not progress and some regions will even be subject to dehardening. The drought in western Ukraine continued during the period of review, as the sparse rains that occurred in November were insufficient to significantly improve soil moisture conditions. Belarus and Poland experienced a rain deficit that is expected to continue during the coming days. In Spain, Portugal, Romania, Russia and Turkey, the dry conditions that were reported in the November issue of the Bulletin ended thanks to beneficial rains at the end of November. The excess of precipitation, since the beginning of November, has continued in northwest Italy, southwest France, Scotland (UK), Greece and northern Morocco. Excessively wet conditions continued in north-west Italy, south-west France, Scotland (UK), Greece and northern Morocco, whereas conditions improved in other parts of western Europe., JRC.D.5-Food Security

According to the April 2020 issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, western Europe experienced one of the driest starts to spring since 1979, after an exceptionally wet winter. Large parts of Poland, Ukraine and Romania have also faced dry conditions since the end of winter. Winter crops in most of these regions are still in good condition, but more rain is needed to sustain a positive yield outlook. However, the very dry upper soil layers are having a negative impact on the sowing and emergence of spring and summer crops. Cold spells at the end of March and beginning of April challenged sowing and emergence in much of central and south-eastern Europe. A marked rainfall surplus was welcomed in the Iberian Peninsula, Greece, Cyprus and south-eastern Turkey. While labour availability remains a key concern, we have found no evidence that COVID-19 has had any major impact on the sowing of spring and summer crops. So far, the supply of seed, fertiliser and pesticides seems to be adequate and no immediate disruptions are expected. The yield forecast presented in this issue of the MARS bulletin are still mostly based on historical trends. It is acknowledged that they bear a large margin of uncertainty associated with the rain deficit currently faced in large parts of Europe. Increasingly accurate forecasts can be expected as the season unfolds., JRC.D.5-Food Security

The yield forecasts for almost all summer crops in the EU were revised downwards from the July forecast, but remain above or near the 5-year average. Compared to the figures reported in July, the main downward revisions occurred for summer crops in France, Romania, Bulgaria, Germany, the Benelux countries and Poland. By contrast, the yield forecast for soybeans was revised upwards, as very favourable conditions prevailed in northern Italy and Hungary. Large parts of western and northern central Europe have been affected by a rain deficit since the beginning of July. Temperatures increased in these regions at the end of July, and a heatwave of seven to ten consecutive days occurred in the first half of August. The combination of limited water supply and high temperatures negatively affected summer crops, with expected reductions in yields. In southern Ukraine and eastern parts of Romania and Bulgaria, the return of drought conditions negatively impacted summer crops, leading to the early senescence of maize and sunflower crops. In contrast, summer crops benefited from a surplus of precipitation in many other parts of central Europe, eastern Italy, and western Romania., JRC.D.5-Food Security

We suggest that the unprecedented and unintended decrease of emissions of air pollutants during the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020 could lead to declining seasonal ozone concentrations, and positive impacts on crop yields. An initial assessment of the potential effects of COVID-19 emission reductions was made using a set of six scenarios that variously assumed annual European and global emission reductions of 30 % and 50 % for the energy, industry, road transport and international shipping sectors, and 80 % for the aviation sector. The greatest ozone reductions during the growing season reached up to 12 ppb over crop growing regions in Asia and up to 6 ppb in North America and Europe for the 50 % global reduction scenario. In Europe, ozone responses are more sensitive to emission declines in other continents, international shipping and aviation than to emissions changes within Europe. We demonstrate that for wheat the overall magnitude of ozone precursor emission changes could lead to yield improvements between 2 % and 8 %. The expected magnitude of ozone precursor emission reductions during the Northern Hemisphere growing season in 2020 presents an opportunity to test and improve crop models and experimentally-based exposure response relationships of ozone impacts on crops, under real-world conditions.

Above-average rainfall in Italy, south-eastern Europe and south-eastern parts of the Iberian Peninsula instigated the replenishment of soil moisture reserves, which in several regions had been critically low, with substantial benefits for winter crops and the early development of spring- and summer crops. Large parts of northern-central Europe experienced a marked rainfall deficit since mid-March. April was particularly dry in these regions. Winter crops are negatively affected in northern Poland, eastern and north-eastern Germany and north-western Czechia, especially those on light sandy soils. Emerging spring and summer crops were also impacted. On balance, the improvements to the yield outlook for winter cereals in southern Europe were largely offset by reduced yield forecasts in northern regions, resulting in a slight upward revision at the EU level. The distinctly colder-than-usual conditions that occurred in large parts of Europe in early May slowed down winter crop development, but frost damage to annual crops (such as flowering rapeseed stands) was limited to local occurrences., JRC.D.5-Food Security

The yield forecast for grain maize has fallen by almost 2%, but this is still above the 5-year average for the EU as a whole. Forecasts are distinctly below the 5-year average for most western and northern-central European countries; well above-average yields are expected for southern-central and south-eastern Europe, particularly for Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania. Yield forecasts for sugar beet, potatoes and green maize, which were already below the 5-year average at EU level, have been revised further downwards. The productivity of pastures in northern, central and western Europe has also been negatively impacted. The yield outlook for sunflowers remains firmly above the 5-year average. Forecasts for winter crops and spring cereals essentially remained the same. The season has closed in most regions, and crops have been harvested under adequate weather conditions., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Winter crops are advanced and in good shape in most of Europe, following a mild winter. Cold spells have been rare and have not caused significant damage. Large parts of southern Europe experienced a precipitation deficit; more rain will be needed there to sustain good crop growth., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Beneficial rainfall in northern and northern-central Europe contributed to an improved outlook in regions that experienced a dry spell in April. Abundant rainfall in Italy, and southern central and eastern Europe also provided benefits in terms of improved water supply. However, this wet weather combined with below average temperatures, hampering summer crop growth in large parts of these regions. In contrast, hot and dry conditions in the Iberian Peninsula, reduced yield expectations for the main winter crops and spring barley. Moreover, water reservoirs are at below-average fill levels, which could possibly lead to restrictions on water use for irrigation of summer crops later in the season. At EU level, the overall yield outlook for cereals slightly improved comparing to our previous forecast in May. Grain maize and sunflower yield expectations are distinctly above the five-year average, reflecting the favourable conditions in large parts of south-eastern Europe., JRC.D.5-Food Security

The overall yield outlook for cereals at EU level slightly decreased due to the impact of the June heatwave that affected large parts of Europe, resulting in a limited downward revision of forecasts for soft wheat, spring barley, rye, and triticale. Forecasts for grain maize and sunflowers were revised upwards due to the favourable conditions in southern-central and south-eastern Europe continuing. This positive outlook for summer crops in south-eastern Europe contrasts with the unfavourable conditions faced in large parts of Austria, Germany, Czechia, the Benelux countries, and France. Soil moisture levels in these regions are low and the rise in temperature and absence of rain forecast for the coming days will aggravate this situation., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Partial pasture recovery in northern Europe, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Frost damage remains limited despite end-of-winter cold spell, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Harvesting of root and tuber crops also affected In large parts of central Europe, persistently dry soil conditions, complicated field preparations and sowing operations, and limited plant emergence and early crop development. Rapeseed areas in Germany, eastern Poland and northern Czechia are expected to be significantly reduced. Soft wheat can still be (re)sown in some countries. Favourable conditions for the sowing and emergence of winter crops prevailed in most parts of western and northern Europe., JRC.D.5-Food Security

Rapeseed sowing and emergence seriously impacted, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Rapeseed outlook revised downwards, JRC.D.5-Food Security