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The return period is a probabilistic criterion used to measure and communicate the random occurrence of geophysical events such as floods in risk assessment studies. Since an individual risk may be strongly affected by the degree of dependence amongst all risks, the need for the provision of multivariate design quantiles has gained ground. Consequently, several recent studies have focused on estimation of multi-hazard risk resulted from different hazard types. In this study, multi-hazard return periods are derived for riverine and pluvial floods in city of Monza, Italy, based on different copula dependence structures. It is shown that ignoring statistical dependence among different inter-correlated hazards may cause significant misestimation of risks.

Weather index insurance is an innovative tool in risk transfer for disasters induced by natural hazards. This paper proposes a methodology that uses machine learning algorithms for the identification of extreme flood and drought events aimed at reducing the basis risk connected to this kind of insurance mechanism. The model types selected for this study were the neural network and the support vector machine, vastly adopted for classification problems, which were built exploring thousands of possible configurations based on the combination of different model parameters. The models were developed and tested in the Dominican Republic context, based on data from multiple sources covering a time period between 2000 and 2019. Using rainfall and soil moisture data, the machine learning algorithms provided a strong improvement when compared to logistic regression models, used as a baseline for both hazards. Furthermore, increasing the amount of information provided during the training of the models proved to be beneficial to the performances, increasing their classification accuracy and confirming the ability of these algorithms to exploit big data and their potential for application within index insurance products.

The retention regularities and the thermodynamic characteristics of the sorption of volatile organic compounds from the gas phase were studied for the chromatography columns packed with composite sorbents based on the MIL-53(Al) metal-organic framework and polydiphenyldimethylsiloxane (PPMS). It was shown that with an increase in the content of MIL-53(Al) in the binary sorbent to 73 wt %, retention is predominantly associated with adsorption in the microporous structure of MIL-53(Al) rather than dissolution in the PFMS film. It has been shown that the adsorbate–adsorbent interaction in the orthorhombic channels of MIL-53(Al) depends to a greater extent on the dispersion attractive forces than the dipole–dipole and specific interactions.

Floods and droughts are the events that most threaten crop production; however, the impact of floods on crops is still not fully understood and often under-reported. Nowadays, multiple sources of information and approaches support the estimation of agricultural losses due to floods. This study aims to understand the differences in agricultural loss estimates provided by two conceptually different approaches (crop models and expert-based models), evaluating their sensitivity to flood hazard inputs. We investigated the challenges in flood agricultural loss assessments referring to a case study for which, in addition to model simulations, information from surveys and on-site inspections were available. Two crop models (APSIM and WOFOST) and the expert-based model AGRIDE-c were applied to evaluate agricultural yield losses after the flood event of the Panaro River (Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy) that took place on the 6 December 2020. Two modelling tools were used to reproduce the event: the hydraulic model HEC-RAS and the image-based tool FwDET. Additionally, surveys among local farmers were conducted in the aftermath of the event to evaluate the flood features (water depth, extent and duration) and crop losses. The main findings of the study are that APSIM and WOFOST provide similar estimates of yield losses, while AGRIDE-c tends to underestimate yield losses when the losses over the entire study area are evaluated. The choice of the flood simulation technique does not influence the loss estimation since the difference between the yield loss estimates retrieved from the same model initialized with HEC-RAS or FwDET was always lower than 2%. Information retrieved from the surveys was not sufficient to validate the damage estimates provided by the models but could be used to derive a qualitative picture of the event. Therefore, further research is needed to understand how to effectively incorporate this kind of information in agricultural loss estimation.

to analyze the stereotyped subsets in cohort of Ukrainian chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients in general and depending on the ionizing radiation (IR) exposure.Analysis was performed in the groups of 118 CLL patients irradiated due to the Chornobyl NPP accident (95 clean-up workers, 17 inhabitants of radionuclide contaminated areas, and 6 evacuees) and 294 IR non-exposed patients. The IGHV (immunoglobulin heavy chain variable region) gene mutational status, mutations of NOTCH1, TP53 and SF3B1 genes were studied by polymerase chain reaction followed by direct sequencing. Associations between clinical and molecular data of patients were analyzed with the SPSS software package, version 20.0.The incidence of stereotyped CLL cases in Ukrainian cohort was high (50.5 %) and comparable in IR-exposed and non-exposed patients. The ratio of major and minor clusters as well as the frequency of individual clusters was comparable with reported data with some exceptions: a low incidence of subset #2; absence of subset #8; high frequency of minor subset #V4|J4.5.6|18|5. The distinctive features of IR-exposed CLL patients found were:1) comparable frequency of stereotyped cases among mutated and unmutated (UM) IGHV genes cases (p = 0.557);2) lack of differences IGHV gene repertoires among stereotyped and heterogeneous cases (p = 0.508); 3) «heterogeneity» of stereotyped cases: all identified stereotyped clusters, with the exception of cluster #1, consisted of one case. Stereotyped cases with expression of UM IGHV clan I genes (except IGHV1-69 gene) were more susceptible to the appearance of NOTCH1 mutations. Patients of cluster #4 were younger, tended to have a longer time-to-treatment period and overall survival (OS) compared to subset #2. Patients of cluster #2 are more likely to have autoimmune hemolytic anemia (AIHA) and SF3F1 mutations. IGHV3-21 expression was associated with worse OS in univariate and multivariate analysis. AIHA was more common in patients with UM IGHV4-59 and IGHV3-11 genes.The revealed differences in distribution of stereotyped CLL cases in Ukrainian cohort are most likely to reflect variations in the genetic background, environmental factors (including IR exposure), and their interactions in different geographic areas.Meta: porivnial'nyĭ analiz chastoty ta spektru stereotypnykh klasteriv u kogorti ukraïns'kykh khvorykh na khronichnu limfotsytarnu leĭkemiiu (KhLL) z urakhuvanniam naiavnosti v anamnezi vplyvu ionizuiuchogo vyprominiuvannia. Metody. Doslidzhennia provedeno v grupi 118 khvorykh na KhLL, oprominenykh vnaslidok avariï na Chornobyl's'kiĭ AES (95 uchasnykiv likvidatsiï naslidkiv avariï 1986 r., 17 meshkantsiv terytoriĭ, kontaminovanykh radionuklidamy, 6 evakuĭovanykh) i v grupi 294 neoprominenykh khvorykh. Mutatsiĭnyĭ status geniv vazhkykh lantsiugiv imunoglobuliniv (IGHV geniv), mutatsiï geniv NOTCH1, TP53 i SF3B1 doslidzhuvaly za dopomogoiu polimeraznoï lantsiugovoï reaktsiï z nastupnym sekvenuvanniam. Asotsiatsiï mizh klinichnymy i molekuliarnymy danymy analizuvaly u statystychniĭ programi SPSS software package, version 20.0.Rezul'taty. Chastota stereotypnykh vypadkiv v ukraïns'kiĭ KhLL kogorti bula vysokoiu (50,5 %) i ne rozriznialas' sered oprominenykh ta neoprominenykh khvorykh. Spivvidnoshennia mazhornykh i minornykh klasteriv, a takozh chastota okremykh klasteriv buly skhozhymy z danymy literatury za dekil'koma vyniatkamy: nyz'ka chastota klastera #2;vidsutnist' klastera #8; vysoka chastota minornogo klastera #V4|J4.5.6|18|5. Osoblyvostiamy oprominenykh khvorykh buly: 1) odnakova chastota stereotypnykh klasteriv sered vypadkiv KhLL z mutovanymy i nemutovanymy (UM) IGHV genamy (p = 0,557); 2) vidsutnist' dostovirnykh rozbizhnosteĭ v repertuari IGHV geniv sered stereotypnykh i geterogennykh vypadkiv (p = 0,508); 3) «geterogennist'» stereotypnykh vypadkiv: vsi identyfikovani klastery, za vyniatkom klasteru #1, buly predstavleni odnym vypadkom. Sered stereotypnykh vypadkiv z ekspresiieiu UM IGHV geniv I klanu (krim gena IGHV1-69) chastishe zustrichalys' mutatsiï gena NOTCH1. Khvori, iaki nalezhaly do klasteru #4, porivniano z patsiientamy klasteru #2, buly molodshymy, maly tendentsiiu do zbil'shennia periodu do pochatku terapiï ta zagal'nogo vyzhyvannia. Sered khvorykh klasteru #2 chastishe diagnostuvaly autoimunnu gemolitychnu anemiiu ta mutatsiï gena SF3F1. Ekspresiia gena IGHV3-21 bula asotsiĭovana z nyz'kymy pokaznykamy zagal'nogo vyzhyvannia pry uni- ta mul'tyvariantnomu regresiĭnomu analizi. Autoimunna gemolitychna anemiia chastishe zustrichalas' u khvorykh z ekspresiieiu UM IGHV4-59 i IGHV3-11 geniv.Vysnovky. Vyiavleni rozbizhnosti rozpodilu stereotypnykh vypadkiv v ukraïns'kiĭ kogorti khvorykh na KhLL naĭbil'sh virogidno vidobrazhaiut' vplyv genetychnykh faktoriv, faktoriv navkolyshn'ogo seredovyshcha (vkliuchaiuchy ĭ ionizuiuche vyprominiuvannia), ta ïkh vzaiemodiiu u pevniĭ geografichniĭ zoni.

Assessing the risk of complex systems to natural hazards is an important but challenging problem. In today's intricate socio-technological world, characterized by strong urbanization and technological trends, the connections and interdependencies between exposed elements are crucial. These complex relationships call for a paradigm shift in collective risk assessments, from a reductionist approach to a holistic one. Most commonly, the risk of a system is estimated through a reductionist approach, based on the sum of the risk evaluated individually at each of its elements. In contrast, a holistic approach considers the whole system to be a unique entity of interconnected elements, where those connections are taken into account in order to assess risk more thoroughly. To support this paradigm shift, this paper proposes a holistic approach to analyse risk in complex systems based on the construction and study of a graph, the mathematical structure to model connections between elements. We demonstrate that representing a complex system such as an urban settlement by means of a graph, and using the techniques made available by the branch of mathematics called graph theory, will have at least two advantages. First, it is possible to establish analogies between certain graph metrics (e.g. authority, degree and hub values) and the risk variables (exposure, vulnerability and resilience) and leverage these analogies to obtain a deeper knowledge of the exposed system to a hazard (structure, weaknesses, etc.). Second, it is possible to use the graph as a tool to propagate the damage into the system, for not only direct but also indirect and cascading effects, and, ultimately, to better understand the risk mechanisms of natural hazards in complex systems. The feasibility of the proposed approach is illustrated by an application to a pilot study in Mexico City.

In the last decades, resilience became officially the worldwide cornerstone to reduce the risk of disasters and improve preparedness, response, and recovery capacities. Although the concept of resilience is now clear, it is still under debate how to model and quantify it. The aim of this work was to quantify the resilience of a complex system, such as a densely populated and urbanized area, by modelling it with a graph, the mathematical representation of the system element and connections. We showed that the graph can account for the resilience characteristics included in its definition according to the United Nations General Assembly, considering two significant aspects of this definition in particular: (1) resilience is a property of a system and not of single entities and (2) resilience is a property of the system dynamic response. We proposed to represent the exposed elements of the system and their connections (i.e., the services they exchange) with a weighted and redundant graph. By mean of it, we assessed the systemic properties, such as authority and hub values and highlighted the centrality of some elements. Furthermore, we showed that after an external perturbation, such as a hazardous event, each element can dynamically adapt, and a new graph configuration is set up, taking advantage of the redundancy of the connections and the capacity of each element to supply lost services. Finally, we proposed a quantitative metric for resilience as the actual reduction of the impacts of events at different return periods when resilient properties of the system are activated. To illustrate step by step the proposed methodology and show its practical feasibility, we applied it to a pilot study: the city of Monza, a densely populated urban environment exposed to river and pluvial floods.

Background Expression of lipoprotein lipase (LPL) correlates with unmutated (UM) status of the variable region of the heavy chain of immunoglobulin (IGHV) genes, but the expression level of LPL in UM chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) cases varies significantly. Aim To study the association of LPL expression with the genetic variants of the TP53 gene since both genes are involved in lipid metabolism. Materials and methods Expression of LPL mRNA was measured in peripheral blood mononuclears of 45 CLL patients with UM IGHV genes by real-time quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Mutational status of IGHV genes and TP53 genotyping (rs1042522, rs1642785, rs17883323, rs2909430, rs145153611, rs113530090, rs12947788, rs12951053, and rs17878362) were performed by polymerase chain reaction amplification followed by direct sequencing. Results Observed CLL patients were divided on groups with low (11.17 ± 2.66) and high (275.48 ± 39.37) LPL expression. In CLL patients with UM IGHV genes and low LPL expression we found an increased frequency of rs1042522 G (p = 0.0036), rs1642785 C (p = 0.0001), and rs17878362A2 alleles (p = 0.0091). The possible functional significance of these changes is discussed. Conclusion Some polymorphic variants of TP53 may be genetic modifiers for LPL expression level in CLL leukemic B-cells. Further research is required in a larger cohort to confirm these findings.

to study clinical-hematological data and expression of the main and alternative transcripts of SORL1 genein chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients affected by the Chornobyl catastrophe.Analysis was performed in the main group of 34 CLL patients irradiated due to the Chornobyl NPP acci-dent (30 clean-up workers, and 4 evacuees) and in the control group of 27 non-irradiated CLL patients. Groups ofpatients were comparable by age, sex, stage of disease, mutational status of IGHV genes. Expression of the main andalternative transcripts of SORL1 gene was evaluated by Quantitative Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). TheIGHV gene mutational status, TP53 and SF3B1 mutations were studied by PCR followed by direct sequencing. Data wereanalyzed with the SPSS software package, version 20.0.Relative expression level of the main transcript of SORL1 gene was low (mean 1.71 ± 0.55, median 0.57),did not correlate with the IGHV gene mutational status, TP53 and SF3B1 mutations, stage of disease. The expressionof B transcript was not detected, F transcript was expressed at a very low level in 9 patients. The average relativeexpression level of SORL1-Δ2 transcript was 14.1 ± 6.04 (median 3.48; range 0.01-90.51). The expression of SORL1-Δ2transcript above the median was more frequent among patients on C stage (p = 0.001), and in patients with unmu-tated IGHV genes was associated with an extremely negative course of CLL (median of overall survival 9 months vs61 months at low expression). Relative expression levels of the main and alternative transcripts of SORL1 gene inpatients of the main and the control groups did not differ.Our preliminary data suggest that increased expression of SORL1-Δ2 transcript in CLL patients withunmutated IGHV genes can be considered as a negative prognostic marker.Meta: doslidyty kliniko-gematologichni pokaznyky ta ekspresiiu osnovnogo i al'ternatyvnykh transkryptiv genaSORL1 u khvorykh na khronichnu limfotsytarnu leĭkemiiu (KhLL), iaki postrazhdaly vnaslidok Chornobyl's'koï katast-rofy.Metody. Doslidzhennia provedeno v osnovniĭ grupi 34 khvorykh na KhLL, oprominenykh vnaslidok avariï na Chorno-byl's'kiĭ AES (30 uchasnykiv likvidatsiï naslidkiv avariï i 4 evakuĭovanykh) ta v grupi porivniannia (27 neopromine-nykh khvorykh na KhLL). Grupy doslidzhenykh buly skhozhymy za stattiu, vikom, stadiieiu zakhvoriuvannia pry postanovtsidiagnozu, mutatsiĭnym statusom IGHV geniv. Ekspresiiu osnovnogo i al'ternatyvnykh transkryptiv gena SORL1 otsiniu-valy metodom polimeraznoï lantsiugovoï reaktsiï (PLR) u real'nomu chasi. Mutatsiĭnyĭ status IGHV geniv, mutatsiïgeniv TP53 i SF3B1 vyznachaly metodom PLR z nastupnym sekvenuvanniam. Otrymani dani analizuvaly u statystychniĭprogrami SPSS software package, version 20.0.Rezul'taty. Vidnosnyĭ riven' ekspresiï osnovnogo transkryptu gena SORL1 buv nyz'kym (1,71 ± 0,55, mediana0,57), ne koreliuvav z mutatsiĭnym statusom IGHV geniv, stadiieiu KhLL, naiavnistiu mutatsiĭ geniv TP53 i SF3B1.Ekspresiia transkryptu V ne vyiavlena v zhodnomu vypadku, transkrypt F ekspresuvavsia na duzhe nyz'komu rivni u9 khvorykh. Vidnosnyĭ riven' ekspresiï transkryptu SORL1-Δ2 stanovyv 14,1 ± 6,04 (mediana 3,48; kolyvannia vid0,01 do 90,51). Ekspresiia transkryptu SORL1-δ2 vyshcha za medianu chastishe vyiavlena u khvorykh na stadiï S(r = 0,001), a u khvorykh z nemutovanym statusom IGHV geniv bula asotsiĭovana z vkraĭ negatyvnym perebigom KhLL(mediana zagal'nogo vyzhyvannia 9 mis. proty 61 mis. za nyz'kogo rivnia ekspresiï SORL1-δ2). Za ekspresiieiu os-novnogo i al'ternatyvnykh tranksryptiv gena SORL1 khvori na KhLL, iaki postrazhdaly vnaslidok avariï na Chorno-byl's'kiĭ AES, ne vidriznialys' vid patsiientiv grupy porivniannia.Vysnovky. Otrymani poperedni dani svidchat', shcho znachne pidvyshchennia ekspresiï al'ternatyvnogo transkryptuSORL1-δ2 za nemutovanogo statusu IGHV geniv mozhe rozgliadatys' iak marker vkraĭ negatyvnogo prognozu perebiguKhLL.

The mutational status of the variable region of the immunoglobulin heavy chain (IGHV) genes remains the most significant prognostic factor in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients. However, the groups of mutated (M) and unmutated (UM) patients are also heterogeneous, and additional markers are used for a more accurate prognosis. The aim of our work was to determine the prognostic value of the signs of antigen selection determined by BASELINe statistics in M IGHV sequences of CLL patients. Clinical data, IGHV gene configuration, TP53, NOTCH1, SF3B1 mutations were analyzed in 127 CLL patients with M IGHV sequences. The median OS of patients with negative selection in the framework regions (FWRs) of IGHV genes was 120 months compared to 202 month in other CLL patients (P = 0.016). In multivariate Cox regression analysis Binet stage C vs A + B (P 0.0001), SF3B1 mutations (P 0.0001), negative selection in the FWRs (HR P = 0.007), and age ≥65 years (P = 0.034) were powerful adverse prognostic factors for OS in CLL patients with M IGHV genes. These preliminary data suggest that the signs of antigen-driven selection may be used as a prognostic factor in CLL patients with M IGHV genes in combination with other markers.

In this paper, we report on the fabrication of a new material SiO

Drought economic impacts, even if non-structural, are a significant threat for those sectors highly dependent on water resources. Agricultural production is highly sensitive to extreme weather events such as droughts and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the frequency and the severity of droughts, as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which raises concerns about food security for the next decades.The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated that between 2005 and 2015, 83% of all drought-related losses were absorbed by agriculture. The huge monetary losses are mainly due to crop yield reduction because of high temperatures and reduced precipitation, which are linked to additional expenses for field irrigation.This study aims at estimating the economic impacts of drought on the agricultural sector. The investigation has been carried out for a specific case study area within the Po river basin (Northern Italy). The Po valley is the largest agricultural area in Italy and accounts for 35% of Italian agricultural production. It has experienced multiple droughts over the past 20 years, with the long and severe drought from 2003 to 2008 that caused relevant impacts to the agricultural sector. The total economic impact of the 2005-2007 drought was estimated to be around 1.850M€. Climate change projections over the Italian peninsula from the PRUDENCE regional experiments showed that the frequency and the severity of droughts in Northern Italy will increase in the next century due to a decrease in precipitation during critical crop growing seasons (spring and summer).The proposed methodology consists of two steps. At first, farmers have been subjected to surveys for assessing the monetary losses they experienced during past drought events and the cost associated with the mitigation strategies implemented to reduce the economic impacts of the extreme event, with special attention to irrigation practices.Secondly, the crop growing season and yields have been estimated using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), calibrated with local yields retrieved from the Italian National Institute for Statistics (ISTAT) over the period from 2006 to 2020. Weather parameters for simulations in APSIM were derived from remote-sensing images. The comparison between the average growing season and the ones with low yields allows the identification of the crop growing stages that experienced stress. Among the identified stresses, the ones related to water shortages are considered. The economic costs associated with agricultural practices are computed to obtain an estimation of farmers' expenses. Besides, farmers' income is computed based on crop prices and simulated yield. The reduced income obtained by farmers during the previously identified water-related stresses represents their loss due to drought.Results reveal that the use of the developed methodology to identify drought stress in combination with the information coming from surveys helps in quickly assessing the economic impacts of past and present droughts in the Po river basin and represents a useful tool to evaluate which cultivations and which areas suffered the highest economic impacts of droughts.

In a climate change framework extreme natural events are going to occur more frequently and intensively as a result of global warming. Therefore, the effects and consequences of climate-related natural hazards, such as flooding, heatwaves, drought, landslides and others, have the potential to become more disastrous and extensive. Consequences of such events are of particular concern considering that today’s societies are interconnected in complex and dynamic socio-technological networks and, hence, dependent more than before on Critical Infrastructures (CI) systems (such as transport, energy, water, ICT systems, etc.). Furthermore, there are also events of Natural Hazards Trigger Technological Disasters (also known as NaTech events), whereby an industrial accident caused by a natural event could affect people, the environment, and other facilities and systems. This work reviews studies in the fields of risk assessment of CI systems affected by natural hazards and NaTech events.This study identifies and classifies: the methodologies applied (qualitative or quantitative), the type of infrastructures exposed (transport, electricity, oil, gas, water and waste water and telecommunications systems, industrial or nuclear plant) and hazard considered (flood, earthquake, lighting, landslide, avalanche, storm surge, heat and cold waves, wind), the scale of application and the level of spatial resolution.The work provides a comparison of the scientific studies, the objectives and analysis methods to assess risk employed in the fields of CI systems and NaTech events in order to highlight similarities and differences and to guide the most suitable approach for each application case.

Globally, about a third of all losses related to natural hazards are due to flooding. Many studies focused their attention on the estimation of flood damages to buildings and infrastructures. However, floods cause significant losses to the agricultural sector too and negatively affect rural economies due to their impacts on agricultural productivity.Several tools to quantify flooding economic impacts on the agricultural sector have been proposed, such as the AGRIDE-c conceptual model, and the Joint Research Centre (JRC) depth-damage functions. However, the tools have rarely been validated against data collected from surveys.The aim of this study is the comparison between the flood economic impacts on agriculture computes using both AGRIDE-c and the JRC tool and the ones retrieved from surveys.A questionnaire for estimating flood economic impacts on agriculture was prepared and submitted to farmers shortly after the flooding event. The selected case study area was the town of Nonantola (near the city of Modena, Northern Italy), where a flooding event occurred on 6th December 2020. The flood was caused by the collapse of about 80m levee portion along the right bank of Panaro River resulting in an inundated area around 2000 hectares. The flood involved the Nonantola town where residential buildings and an active industrial area are located, although the dominant land use is agricultural land. The main local crops are represented by forage, wheat, vineyards, fruits (pears and plums) and sugar beet.The questionnaire is divided into four main sections: The first section is related to the generic information on the farm, the second section to the data on the inundation and damage to crops, the third section to the information on past flood events and risk mitigation strategies eventually adopted during past and present events, the fourth section data to the insurance coverage.Two existing crop damage models (AGRIDE-c and the JRC) were calibrated using three types of data: crop yields, crop selling prices and crop cost of production. Crop yields were obtained from the Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT), crop selling prices and costs of production were instead available from official sources such as ISMEA and Coldiretti (Italian association of farmers).Finally, the proposed approach will allow the comparison between the damages experienced by farmers evaluated from questionnaires and the damages estimated by the two models in order to evaluate how the models simulate data directly collected from the field surveys.

Evaluating the impacts of weather events on the agricultural sector is of high importance. Weather has a huge influence on crop performance and agricultural system management, particularly in those countries where agriculture is mainly rainfed. Climate change is expected to further affect farmers’ incomes since the risk of extreme weather events with a relevant impact on crop yields is predicted to increase.Appropriate strategies to deal with the economic impacts of agriculture need to be developed, to enable farmers to quickly recover after a disaster. In this context, weather-based index insurance (also known as parametric insurance) plays a key role since it allows farmers to receive financial aid soon after a disaster occurs.This study evaluates the applicability of crop models run with gridded data in the framework of index-based insurance to assess their added value in providing estimations of crop yield in case of drought events.At first, the cropland area is identified using satellite data on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) retrieved from various sources, such as Sentinel and Landsat. Crop Type maps are then produced to identify the location of the different crops grown in a region. Then, weather data coming from stations are exploited to run the AquaCrop crop model and estimate the crop yield for the areas near the weather stations.Since in many countries weather stations are often missing or do not record continuously, the AquaCrop model is also run with gridded data coming from reanalysis, specifically ERA, which is a product released by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast and has the advantage to provide daily estimation of multiple weather parameters on a 0.25° grid. In addition, ERA5 has a short latency time (in the order of days) and thus allows a near-real time monitoring of the crop growing season. The AquaCrop outputs obtained when the model is run with the station data are then compared to the ones obtained when the model is run with gridded data. The performance of the two model configurations (weather parameters coming from stations or from ERA5) in estimating yield reductions during drought events, previously identified using the Probabilistic Precipitation Vegetation Index (PPVI), are evaluated.The framework was applied in the context of the Dominican Republic, a Caribbean country in which 52% of the national territory is devoted to agriculture. The Dominican agricultural industry has as main products cocoa, tobacco, sugarcane, coffee, cotton, rice, beans, potatoes, corn and bananas. Results shows that gridded data can be a valuable tool to provide near-real time estimates of the crop growing season and thus help in forecasting final crop yields in near-real time.

In the last decades, resilience officially become the worldwide cornerstone around which reducing the risk of disasters and improving preparedness, response and recovery capacities. The theoretical framework developed in this work is based on the resilience definition adopted in 2016 by United Nations General Assembly: “the ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions through risk management”. This definition implies 2 main concepts that are the foundation of this work: 1) resilience is a property of a system and 2) a system is resilient when is able to dynamically react to a perturbation in order to maintain or resume its functionalities.In order to reproduce the complex system of an urban environment, the proposed framework shows the assumptions and operational procedure to construct a weighted and redundant graph. The built graph has the ambition, under the constrains due to the data availability, to represent the interdependencies among the exposed elements, both in ordinary conditions and under perturbations such as disasters. The weight of the graph is represented by the population served by each single service. Furthermore, each element in case of an external perturbation, has the possibility to dynamically adapt and switch to a new graph configuration based on the redundancy and backup capacity of its providers.The feasibility of the proposed approach is illustrated by an application to a case study in the densely populated urban environment of the city of Monza that is exposed to river and pluvial floods. The case study consists in a directed and weighted graph with 6000+ nodes and almost 1.3 million links. By means of the graph an estimation of the impacted and adapted nodes is made along with a measure of resilience to different flood scenarios for the city of MonzaAcknowledge: This research was partly funded by Fondazione Cariplo under the project “NEWFRAME: NEtWork-based Flood Risk Assessment and Management of Emergencies"

Weather index insurance is an innovative tool in risk transfer for disasters induced by natural hazards. This paper proposes a methodology that uses machine learning algorithms for the identification of extreme flood and drought events aimed at reducing the basis risk connected to this kind of insurance mechanism. The model types selected for this study were the neural network and the support vector machine, vastly adopted for classification problems, which were built exploring thousands of possible configurations based on the combination of different model parameters. The models were developed and tested in the Dominican Republic context, based on data from multiple sources covering a time period between 2000 and 2019. Using rainfall and soil moisture data, the machine learning algorithms provided a strong improvement when compared to logistic regression models, used as a baseline for both hazards. Furthermore, increasing the number of information provided during the training of the models proved to be beneficial to the performances, increasing their classification accuracy and confirming the ability of these algorithms to exploit big data and their potential for application within index insurance products.

Describe and characterize the peculiarities of the chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) course and responseto treatment in patients irradiated as a result of the Chornobyl nuclear power plant (ChNPP) accident based on theassessment of clinical-laboratory and clinical parameters.The CML patients (n = 33) exposed to ionizing radiation as a result of the ChNPP accidentwere enrolled. The comparison group consisted of CML patients (n = 725) with no history of radiation exposure. Allpatients were in the chronic phase of the disease. Clinical, hematological and molecular genetic research methodswere applied.Patients exposed to ionizing radiation as a result of the ChNPP accident had no differences in CML manifestation, as well as in classical genetic markers at the onset of the disease compared with patients with no historyof radiation exposure. Reduction of tumor clone on imatinib therapy was significantly less effective in the patientsexposed to ionizing radiation than in cases of no history of radiation exposure. Cases of primary resistance were statistically significantly prevalent in the ChNPP accident consequences clean-up workers while in the residents ofradiologically contaminated areas a statistically significant increase in probability of loss of complete cytogeneticresponse (development of secondary resistance) to imatinib therapy was found. An association was found betweenthe radiation exposure and probability of loss of complete cytogenetic response to imatinib therapy in this group ofpatients.The radiation exposure in the history even many years before the onset of CML is an unfavorable exogenous factor responsible for the development of resistance to imatinib therapy.Meta: nadaty kharakterystyku osoblyvostiam perebigu khronichnoï miieloïdnoï leĭkemiï (KhML) ta vidpovidi na likuvannia sered oprominenykh vnaslidok avariï na Chornobyl's'kiĭ atomniĭ elektrostantsiï (ChAES) patsiientiv na osnovi otsinky kliniko-laboratornykh ta klinichnykh parametriv.Materialy i metody. Obstezheno 33 osoby iz KhML, iaki zaznaly diï ionizuiuchogo vyprominiuvannia vnaslidok avariïna ChAES. Grupu porivniannia sklaly 725 patsiientiv iz KhML bez radiatsiĭnogo anamnezu. Usi patsiienty znakhodylysia vkhronichniĭ fazi zakhvoriuvannia. Vykorystovuvaly kliniko-gematologichni ta molekuliarno-genetychni metody doslidzhennia.Rezul'taty. Patsiienty, iaki zaznaly vplyvu radiatsiĭnogo vyprominiuvannia, ne vidriznialys' osoblyvostiamymanifestatsiï KhML, porivniano z patsiientamy bez radiatsiĭnogo anamnezu, prote dlia nykh vyznachalasia nyz'ka efektyvnist' do terapiï imatynibom. U grupi uchasnykiv likvidatsiï naslidkiv avariï na ChAES statystychno znachushche perevazhaly vypadky rozvytku pervynnoï rezystentnosti, porivniano z grupoiu zhyteliv radiatsiĭno zabrudnenykh terytoriĭ ta grupoiu porivniannia. Vyiavleno statystychno znachushche pidvyshchennia chastoty vtraty dosiagnutoï povnoï tsytogenetychnoï vidpovidi na terapiiu imatynibom u patsiientiv, iaki buly evakuĭovani abo prozhyvaly na radiatsiĭno kontaminovanykh terytoriiakh, porivniano z patsiientamy bez radiatsiĭnogo anamnezu. Vyznacheno asotsiatyvnyĭ zv’iazokmizh vplyvom radiatsiĭnogo faktoru ta virogidnistiu vtraty dosiagnutoï povnoï tsytogenetychnoï vidpovidi na terapiiu imatynibom v tsiĭ grupi patsiientiv.Vysnovky. Naiavnist' radiatsiĭnogo oprominennia v anamnezi navit' za bagato rokiv do debiutu KhML, ie nespryiatlyvym seredovyshchnym faktorom, iakyĭ obumovliuie rozvytok rezystentnosti do terapiï imatynibom.

Some clinical and biological features indicating an unfavorable course of the disease were found in ionizing radiation (IR) - related chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients. The MYC proto-oncogene is considered to contribute to CLL pathogenesis. Increased MYC copy number is associated with poor prognosis in CLL. AIM To investigate the frequency of MYC gene copy number amplification in IR-exposed CLL patients and relate the findings to the MYC mRNA levels, the presence of unfavourable prognosis mutations (TP53, SF3B1, NOTCH1), and patient`s outcome. MATERIALS AND METHODS The analysis of MYC copy number was carried out by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in 70 IR-exposed CLL patients. The MYC mRNA expression was measured by real-time quantitative reverse transcription PCR. RESULTS Increased MYC gene copy number was present in 5.7% of cases. There was a statistically significant association between increased MYC copy number and increased MYC mRNA (p

The field of information theory originally developed within the context of communication engineering, deals with the quantification of the information present in a realization of a stochastic process. Mutual information is a measure of mutual dependence between two variables and can be determined from marginal and joint entropies. It is an efficient tool to investigate linear or non-linear dependencies. In this research, some transformed variables, each based on rainfall data from different datasets in Dominican Republic, are adopted in Neural Network and SVM models to classify flood/no-flood events. A selection procedure is used to select skillful inputs to the flood detection model. The relationship between the flood/no-flood output datasets and each predictor (relevance) and also among predictors (redundancy) were assessed based on the mutual information metric. The minimum redundancy between predictors and maximum relevance to the predictand is targeted in order to choose a set of appropriate predictors.

Agricultural production is highly sensitive to extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and storms. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, between 2005 and 2015 natural disasters cost the agricultural sectors of developing country economies a staggering $96 billion in damaged or lost crop and livestock production. Drought was one of the leading culprits. Eighty-three percent of all drought-caused economic losses documented by FAO's study were absorbed by agriculture, with a price tag of $29 billion. Since extreme droughts are expected to increase worldwide both in number and severity, the development of appropriate strategies to reduce and mitigate drought impacts on agricultural production will be essential to enable farmers to quickly recover from the disaster. There is growing interest in insurance as an instrument for managing drought risk in agriculture. Insurance is a self-reliant mitigation measure that increases society's resilience, particularly in the financial sector. There are two main options of crop risk transfer solutions: indemnity-based programs, in which the basis for compensation is the actual loss; and weather index-based (or parametric) programs. Parametric programs are based on variables called indices, often retrieved from remote-sensing observations. Indices should be highly correlated with agricultural losses. A parametric policy for drought pays out if a specific value of the index is achieved in a specific period. Index-based insurance shows various attractive features: the value of the index cannot be influenced by farmers, indemnities are based on observable variables (the indices), on-farm inspections to assess the damages are no more necessary and finally funds to recover from the disaster are provided quickly.The aim of this work is the design of a parametric insurance framework against drought to be applied in the Caribbean region as well as in other regions with similar conditions. Initially a new drought index, the Probabilistic Precipitation and Vegetation Index (PPVI) was developed to identify drought. PPVI was computed combining two consolidated drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). SPI was calculated from precipitation retrieved from satellite (the Climate Hazard Group Infrared Precipitation dataset was used) and VHI is already a remote-sensing product. Then a framework allowing an objective identification of drought weeks was implemented. The framework was used in combination with PPVI and the model was calibrated in order to reproduce past drought events at specific locations. A relationship between drought and negative crop yield anomalies was established. Significant crop growth periods were taken into consideration: establishment, vegetative, flowering and yield formation. The probability of having a negative crop yield anomaly when a significant growth period was in drought was computed. The sensitivity to drought of each crop growth period was evaluated based on this probability. In the end a loss index to relate drought with yield reduction suffered by farmers was developed. The entire framework was tested in the Dominican Republic and cereals losses (maize and sorghum) were evaluated. Results were promising.

Climate change and subsidence will likely have a significant role to increase coastal flooding risk. The socio-economic impact of inundations can be very relevant, and, in a context of climate change, it is necessary to develop effective methods for assessing coastal flood hazard suitable for large-scale studies. This work focuses on the application of a new modelling approach for mapping flooding hazard for future scenarios characterized by sea level rise and ground lowering due to subsidence. The flood intensity index approach (Iw, Dottori et al. 2015) will be used to quantitatively evaluate the flood extent. This recent methodology allows to create reliable scenarios with low computational costs. The effects of the storm surge are assessed using a base scenario corresponding to 100 years return period event. IW inputs are represented by water height set as storm level plus a part of wave height. The scenarios will be created by quantitatively combining IPCC sea level rise projections with subsidence data that will be compared to high-resolution digital terrain models. The study area of this work is the ∼205 km long coastal plain of Northern Italy, from Venice to Rimini, composed of low-lying sandy beaches and which includes the Po delta area. The coast is characterized by large portions of the territory below mean sea level and by geological features made by recent quaternary sediments which have a natural subsidence rate. In the past (1960-1980) the subsidence rate had an exceptional increase caused by excessive groundwater withdrawal for agricultural and industrial activities, human consumption and by natural gas extraction.

The upward trend of temperatures is acknowledged and well documented, this increase in temperature is strictly connected to the rate of change in saturation vapour pressure as described by the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. According to this relationship for every rise of 1°C in the temperature, 7% more water vapour is contained in the saturated air that under the right circumstances may turn into rainfall, enhancing an increase in precipitation intensity.This study scope is to identify any statistically significant trend in extreme rainfall and its spatial and temporal patterns and detect which morphological and climatic variables are the main drivers of the variation in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. The study focuses on the northern part of Italy, this area is of particular interest given by the diverse orography of the territory. After quality checks on the data (record length, missing values and presence of outliers), 382 meteorological stations were selected that provided annual maximum rainfall series (AMS) for different durations, 1,3,6,12 and 24 hours over the period spanning from 1930 to 2017. Trying to maximize the reliability of the data and focusing on the period during which the global warming seems to rise markedly, we decided to focus the analysis on the period of observation going from 1960 to 2017. Also, the date of occurrence of each observation were retrieved enabling the possibility to perform a seasonality analysis on the precipitation extremes.The presence and the significance of trends was investigated through a modified version of the non-parametric test Mann-Kendall that takes into account the effect of autocorrelation in the time series. The magnitude of the trend is instead quantified with the Theil -Sen estimator, a reliable method insensitive to outliers. The trend was also assessed through the innovative trend analysis, a graphical method able to detect also non-linear trend.A preliminary assessment of the results returned by the Mann-Kendall test displayed an overall larger presence of stations exhibiting increasing trend rather than decreasing (ratio 4:1). Moreover, the difference between the number of statistically significant increasing and decreasing trends seems to grow with the duration. These results are, in the vast majority of the cases, in accordance with the outcome returned by the ITA. The relationship between trend and elevation of the stations was investigated through means of scatterplots and non-linear tools, every technique adopted confirmed no correlation between the increasing trend in annual maxima and the altitude of the rain-gauge. The seasonality was studied through boxplots and by observing the frequency of occurrences in each month. At first glance, no clear trend or shift in the period of occurrences are observed. Instead, it is pretty clear how the dates of occurrence of shorter events (i.e. 1,3 hours) are concentrated in the summer months (convective events), while for longer duration the frequency of occurrence move towards the autumn months. Lastly, temperature data are getting gathered in order to investigate the possible link between annual maxima series of extremes precipitation and temperature as suggested by the Clausis-Clapeyron relationship.

to determine the association between the expression of lipoprotein lipase (LPL) and c-MYC genes inperipheral blood cells of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients affected by the Chornobyl catastrophedepending on the mutational status of IGHV genes.Analysis was performed in the group of 69 CLL patients irradiated due to the Chornobyl NPP accident (58clean-up workers of 1986 year, 6 inhabitants of radionuclide contaminated areas, and 5 evacuees). The IGHV genemutational status was studied by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) followed by direct sequencing. LPL and c-MYCexpression was evaluated by Quantitative Real-time PCR. Data were analyzed with the SPSS software package, version 20.0.Relative LPL expression levels in CLL samples ranged from 0 to 1663.5 (mean 138.47 ± 30.69, median 26.1).A strong correlation between individual LPL expression levels and IGHV mutational status was found (r = 0.684;p0.0001). The average relative c-MYC expression level was 5.7 ± 0.87 (median 2.86; range 0-48.5). No association between c-MYC expression and IGHV mutational status was found. Among unmutated IGHV cases, a correlationbetween LPL and c-MYC gene expression levels was identified: r = 0.351; p = 0.013.Our data confirm the dominant concept that unmutated IGHV CLL cases are more sensitive to the actionof proliferative stimuli compared to mutated IGHV CLL cases. This is manifested by an increase in the expression ofa functionally significant LPL gene, is one for the strongest negative prognostic markers in CLL.Meta: vyznachyty asotsiatsiiu mizh ekspresiieiu geniv lipoproteïnlipazy (LPL) i c-MYC u peryferychniĭ krovi khvorykhna khronichnu limfotsytarnu leĭkemiiu (KhLL), iaki postrazhdaly vnaslidok Chornobyl's'koï katastrofy, zalezhno vidmutatsiĭnogo statusu IGHV geniv.Metody. Doslidzhennia provedeno u grupi 69 khvorykh na KhLL, oprominenykh vnaslidok avariï na Chornobyl's'kiĭAES (58 uchasnykiv likvidatsiï naslidkiv avariï 1986 r., 6 meshkantsiv terytoriĭ, kontaminovanykh radionuklidamy,5 evakuĭovanykh). Mutatsiĭnyĭ status IGHV geniv doslidzhuvaly za dopomogoiu polimeraznoï lantsiugovoï reaktsiï(PLR) z nastupnym sekvenuvanniam. Ekspresiiu geniv LPL i c-MYC otsiniuvaly metodom PLR u real'nomu chasi. Otrymani dani analizuvaly u statystychniĭ programi SPSS software package, version 20.0.Rezul'taty. Vidnosnyĭ riven' ekspresiï gena LPL kolyvavsia v mezhakh vid 0 do 1663,5 (138,47 ± 30,69, mediana 26,1).Vyiavlena dostovirna koreliatsiia mizh okremymy rivniamy ekspresiï LPL i mutatsiĭnym statusom IGHV geniv (r = 0,684;p0,0001). Vidnosnyĭ riven' ekspresiï c-MYC stanovyv 5,7 ± 0,87 (mediana 2,86; kolyvannia vid 0 do 48,5). Asotsiatsiï mizh rivnem c-MYC ekspresiï ta mutatsiĭnym statusom IGHV geniv ne vyiavleno. Sered khvorykh na KhLL z nemutovanymy IGHV genamy sposterigalas' koreliatsiĭna zalezhnist' mizh ekspresiieiu geniv LPL i c-MYC (r = 0,351; p = 0,013).Vysnovky. Otrymani dani pidtverdzhuiut' dominuiuchu kontseptsiiu vidnosno bil'shoï chutlyvosti vypadkiv KhLL z nemutovanymy IGHV genamy, porivniano z mutovanymy, do diï proliferatyvnykh stymuliv, shcho suprovodzhuiet'sia pidvyshchenniam ekspresiï funktsional'no znachushchogo LPL, odnogo z naĭbil'sh chitkykh markeriv negatyvnogo prognozu perebigu KhLL.

This paper aims to analyze the flood hazard in the city of Monza, which periodically suffers from overflows from both the river Lambro and the urban drainage system during wet weather conditions. A unified Urban Flash Flood Model of Monza is therefore developed to capture both sources of hazard. The model is first validated by comparing the results of simulations with historical data related to the area of Monza, then is exploited to obtain maximum flood depth and velocity maps for three different return periods. Overall, the results show the different nature of the flood-related hazard and the sewer-related hazard: the former is concentrated across the rivers whereas the latter spreads patchy over the territory. Furthermore, the former features much larger water levels and flow velocities, which result in more serious hazard to citizens.

There is a pressing need for simple and reliable risk transfer mechanisms that can pay out quickly after natural disasters without delays caused by loss estimation, and the need for long historical claims records. One such approach, known as parametric insurance, pays out when a key hazard variable exceeds a predetermined threshold. However, this approach to catastrophe risk, based on making deterministic binary predictions of loss occurrence, is susceptible to basis risk (mismatch between payouts and realized losses). A more defensible approach is to issue probabilistic predictions of loss occurrence, which then allows uncertainty to be properly quantified, communicated, and evaluated. This study proposes a generic probabilistic framework for parametric trigger modeling based on logistic regression, and idealized modeling of potential damage given knowledge of a hazard variable. We also propose various novel methods for evaluating the quality and utility of such predictions as well as more traditional trigger indices. The methodology is demonstrated by application to flood-related disasters in Jamaica from 1998 to 2016 using gridded precipitation data as the hazard variable. A hydrologically motivated transformation is proposed for calculating potential damage from daily rainfall data. Despite the simplicity of the approach, the model has substantial skill at predicting the probability of occurrence of loss days as demonstrated by traditional goodness-of-fit measures (i.e., pseudo-R2 of 0.55) as well as probabilistic verification diagnostics such as receiver operating characteristics. Using conceptual models of decisionmaker expenses, we also demonstrate that the system can provide considerable utility to involved parties, e.g., insured parties, insurers, and risk managers.

The development of strategies to adapt to and mitigate the potential adverse consequences of natural hazards requires support from risk assessment studies that quantify the impacts of hazardous events on our society. A comprehensive analysis of risk commonly evaluates the elements exposed to the hazard probabilistic scenarios and their vulnerabilities. However, while significant advances have been made in the assessment of direct losses, indirect impacts are less frequently examined. This work assesses the indirect consequences of two hydrologic hazards, i.e., pluvial and fluvial floods, in an urban context from a system perspective. It presents a methodology to estimate the services accessibility risk (SAR) that considers the accessibility of roads and the connection between providers and users of services in a city. The feasibility of the proposed approach is illustrated by an application to a pilot study in Monza city (northern Italy) considering pluvial and fluvial flood hazard with different return periods. The results in terms of the social and economic impacts are analyzed considering features of age, disability, and the different economic sectors.

Objectives To analyze the distribution of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the TP53 gene in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients and to evaluate their associations with clinical behavior of the disease. Methods SNPs in exons and parts of adjacent introns of the TP53 gene were analyzed in 235 CLL patients observed during 2005-2012 years. Data on individuals of European descent from the 1000 Genomes Project data set were used as a reference. Results In the recessive model of inheritance, we found borderline associations between CLL risk and C/C genotype of rs1642785 (p = 0.048); G/G genotype of rs2909430 (in men only; p = 0.036) and Pro72Pro genotype of rs1042522 (in men only; p = 0.045). Risk of CLL was increased also in carriers of rare haplotypes (p = 0.0049). Besides, genotypes Pro72Pro of rs1042522, C/C of rs1642785, and G/G of rs2909430 were associated with an increased incidence of TP53 mutations. Median of overall survival in rs1800372 carriers was comparable to that of patients with TP53 mutations. Other evaluated SNPs were not associated with survival. Conclusion Our data suggest that some TP53 variants may affect the risk of CLL. rs1800372 polymorphism might be the marker of unfavorable prognosis of the disease.

The reliability of a levee system is a crucial factor in flood risk management. In this study we present a probabilistic methodology to assess the effects of levee cover strength on levee failure probability, triggering time, flood propagation and consequent impacts on population and assets. A method for determining fragility curves is used in combination with the results of a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model to estimate the conditional probability of levee failure in each river section. Then, a levee breach model is applied to calculate the possible flood hydrographs, and for each breach scenario a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model is used to estimate flood hazard (flood extent and timing, maximum water depths) and flood impacts (economic damage and affected population) in the areas at risk along the river reach. We show an application for levee overtopping and different flood scenarios for a 98 km reach of the lower Po River in Italy. The results show how different design solutions for the le...

AIM The IGHV mutational status is one of the most important markers for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) prognostication. Lipoprotein lipase (LPL) gene expression was found to correlate with IGHV status and was suggested as its surrogate marker. Recent data reported that LPL expression might be influenced by pivotal signalling pathways in CLL. This study aimed to assess LPL gene expression in relation to key immunogenetic and molecular markers of CLL, including IGHV mutational status, B-cell receptor (BCR) stereotypy, TP53, NOTCH1, and SF3B1 gene mutations. Materials and Methods: Expression of LPL mRNA was measured in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of 73 CLL patients by real-time quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). IGHV, NOTCH1, TP53, and SF3B1 gene mutation analysis was performed by PCR amplification and direct sequencing. RESULTS 44 of 73 (60%) CLL cases were categorized as LPL-positive based on the cut-off value established by ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve analysis. LPL expression was significantly associated with IGHV mutation status (r = 0.684; p < 0.0001) and tended to correlate with presence of NOTCH1 gene mutations (p = 0.113). BCR stereotyped cases showed higher LPL expression values in comparison to unstereotyped cases in the LPL-positive group of patients (p = 0.041). LPL expression was associated with a shorter overall survival in the entire СLL group (median 107 vs 143, p = 0.048) as well as in Binet A patients, albeit with borderline significance (median 139 vs not reached, p = 0.086). CONCLUSION LPL expression was found to be closely correlated with IGHV gene mutational status and overall survival, proving LPL as prognostic marker in CLL. Our results also indicate a possible relationship between aberrant expression of LPL and BCR- and NOTCH1-dependent signalling pathways.

This paper introduces a novel Satellite Precipitation-based Extreme Event Detection (SPEED) model to effectively support parametric or index insurance instruments specifically designed to cover flood risk. Such financial tools are intended to promote fast payouts in the aftermath of a disastrous event. They leverage on measured hazard parameters, gathered immediately after the event and defined as the trigger(s), which are used to identify such hazardous events and estimate their resulting consequences in terms of physical damage and losses. This paper addresses the first step of such a modeling approach, the detection of a flood event, which plays an important role in the overall methodology, determining its performance in terms of false and missed detections. Different types of triggers for identifying flood events, based on satellite precipitation estimates, are investigated, and the overall model performance is assessed for a case-study country (the Philippines). A statistical procedure for selecting the optimal configuration of model parameters is presented. Such an optimal configuration minimizes the so-called basis risk, defined in this study as the mismatch between modeled and actual events. Finally, the accuracy of the proposed approach in terms of event localization is investigated by subdividing the case-study country into three main areas, corresponding to the coarsest administrative levels, and assessing the model's capability to capture events in each considered area. The results from this study confirm that the proposed SPEED model can be effectively used as an input for parametric insurance products, given its ability to identify hazardous events correctly.

Geomorphological studies have been carried out in rapidly evolving salt caves related to small watersheds in the San Pedro de Atacama area, Chile. Radiocarbon ages of bones and wood from cave deposits, combined with the presence of large salt caves, geomorphological and sedimentological observations, and the results of micrometer measurements outside and in some of the caves, suggest a period of speleogenesis in the Cordillera de la Sal during the onset of the Holocene, during which the large halite cave systems developed, followed by an early Holocene hyperarid period. Most smaller caves (i.e. Lechuza del Campanario) most probably formed at the start of the wetter mid-Holocene period (5–4.4 ka), when precipitation was never intense enough to entrain large amounts of sediments, but enough to trigger cave development. A diamicton in Lechuza del Campanario Cave radiocarbon dated at ca. 4.4 ka shows that at least one high intensity rainfall event occurred in this recharge basin during the mid-Holocene wet interval. A wet period with lower intensity rainfall events followed between 4.0 and 2.5 ka, causing the 4.4 kyrs old diamicton in Lechuza del Campanario Cave to be entrenched, and the alluvial fan at the downstream end of Palacio del Sal Cave to be covered with windborne sediments dated by OSL at around 3.6 ka. At ca. 2 ka there was a high-intensity rainfall event documented by the age of a twig stuck in the ceiling of the Palacio del Sal Cave, followed by a period with lower intensity rain events until ca. 1.3 ka, when another intense flood produced a mudflow that deposited a second diamicton in Lechuza del Campanario Cave. From then on clustering of radiocarbon ages for wood and bone recovered from caves indicates increased rainfall intensity in the period ca. 0.9–0.5 ka, followed by no registered events until a minor flood at ca. 0.13 ka. The four-centuries long wetter time interval (0.9–0.5 ka), corresponding to the Medieval Climate Anomaly, has been an archeologically important period in the Atacama Desert (Tiwanaku culture). The observations and a detailed review of paleoclimate literature from this key area have allowed the development of a landscape evolution model related to changing climate conditions during the Late Holocene.

Nowadays, flood risk management is gaining importance in order to mitigate and prevent flood disasters, and consequently the analysis of flood risk components is becoming a key research topic. In this paper, we propose a methodology for large-scale analysis of flood susceptibility and vulnerability. The methodology is based on a mathematical index, which considers local topography and basic information about the flood scenario to reproduce flooding processes. Its application allows for considering different levels of complexity of flood scenarios, from localized flood defence failures to complex hazard scenarios involving river reaches. The methodology synthesizes the spatial distribution of the index values into maps and curves that can be used to rank the susceptibility and implement a vulnerability analysis in the area of interest. The components of the methodology are tested in two flood plain areas in Northern Italy recently affected by floods. The results show that the methodology can provide an original and valuable insight of flood susceptibility and vulnerability processes.

One of the necessary components to perform catastrophe risk modelling is information on the buildings at risk, such as their spatial location, geometry, height, occupancy type and other characteristics. This is commonly referred to as the exposure model or data set. When modelling large areas, developing exposure data sets with the relevant information about every individual building is not practicable. Thus, census data at coarse spatial resolutions are often used as the starting point for the creation of such data sets, after which disaggregation to finer resolutions is carried out using different methods, based on proxies such as the population distribution. While these methods can produce acceptable results, they cannot be considered ideal. Nowadays, the availability of open data is increasing and it is possible to obtain information about buildings for some regions. Although this type of information is usually limited and, therefore, insufficient to generate an exposure data set, it can still be very useful in its elaboration. In this paper, we focus on how open building data can be used to develop a gridded exposure model by disaggregating existing census data at coarser resolutions. Furthermore, we analyse how the selection of the level of spatial resolution can impact the accuracy and precision of the model, and compare the results in terms of affected residential building areas, due to a flood event, between different models.

Background Bleeding events are common adverse events in newly diagnosed AML. The underlying mechanisms have not been fully investigated and need to be looked at in more depth. Objective The primary endpoints were qualitative and quantitative functions of plasma von Willebrand factor (vWF) by measuring of vWF activity (vWF:ristocetin cofactor [vWF:RCo]), vWF level (vWF:antigen [vWF:Ag]), factor VIII coagulation activity regarding vWF (vWF:FVIII), and FVIII activity (FVIII) as additional bleeding risk factors in AML patients since the diagnosis and during the first course of treatment. Patients and methods A total number of 10 patients with newly diagnosed AML (excluded APL) and 10 age-matched and sex-matched healthy individuals (control group). The severity of bleeding events was assessed according to Modified WHO Bleeding Scale. Results Four patients in the study group were experiencing bleeding events (G1-4) before and during the first course of treatment and six patients had no bleeding episodes (G0). There were no bleeding episodes in the control group (G0). Six patients with AML had levels of vWF:FVIII below normal ranges (median 29.85 %, range 20.25–40.55), four of them had different grades of spontaneous bleeding events before and during the first course of treatment. Thus, levels of vWF:FVIII below normal ranges in patients with AML was associated with higher risk of spontaneous bleeding events (p=0.019). We have monitored decreased levels of vWF:RCo in three patients with AML and similar in the control group. Three patients with vWF:RCo below normal ranges (median 26,6 %, range 22.5–72.85) in the study group had bleeding events (Grade 1-4), one of them died during the first course of chemotherapy due to gastrointestinal bleeding. Despite a similar decline in vWF:RCo below normal ranges in the control group, bleeding events have not emerged. Conclusions In our study group, decreased level of vWF:FVIII was associated with spontaneous bleeding events and may play an etiologic role in haemorrhagic complications in patients with newly diagnosed AML. The activity of vWF can be a promising risk factor of spontaneous bleeding combined with vWF:FVIII and vWF:Ag in newly diagnosed AML.

This paper presents the application of a graph-based methodology for the assessment of flood impacts in an urban context. In this methodology, exposed elements are organized as nodes on a graph, which is used to propagate impacts from directly affected nodes to other nodes across graph links. Compared to traditional approaches, the main advantage of the adopted methodology lies in the possibility of identifying and understanding indirect impacts and cascading effects. The application case concerns floods numerically reconstructed in Mexico City in response to rainfall events of increasing return periods. The hazard reconstruction was carried out by using a simplified hydrological/hydraulic model of the urban drainage system, implemented in EPASWMM, the Storm Water Management Model developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. The paper shows how the impacts are propagated along different orders of the impact chain for each return period and compares the risk curves between direct and indirect impact. It also highlights the extent to which the reduction in demand of services from consumers and the loss of services from suppliers are respectively contributing to the final indirect impacts. Finally, it illustrates how different impact mitigation measures can be formulated based on systemic information provided by the analysis of graph properties and taking into account indirect impacts.

Assessing the risk of complex systems to natural hazards is an important and challenging problem. In today's intricate socio-technological world, characterized by strong urbanization and technological trends, the connections, interdependencies and interactions between exposed elements are crucial. These complex relations call for a paradigm shift in collective risk assessments, from a reductionist approach to a holistic one. Most commonly, the risk of a system is estimated through a reductionist approach, based on the sum of the risk of its elements individually. In contrast, a holistic approach considers the whole system as a unique entity of interconnected elements, where those connections are taken into account in order to more thoroughly assess risk. To support this paradigm shift, this paper proposes a new holistic approach to assess the risk in complex systems based on Graph Theory. The paper is organized in two parts: part I describes the proposed approach, and part II presents an application to a pilot study in Mexico City. The choice of Mexico City as the study case allows demonstrating the importance of modelling connections and interdependencies to assess risk in a complex urban environment which, in this case, is characterized by increasing risk of urban flooding due to soil subsidence and the presumable failure of the drainage system. In the application, the complexity of Mexico City is depicted by modelling certain selected typologies of elements (i.e. population, fire stations, hospitals, fuel stations, schools and crossroads) and assuming certain rules of connection between them. The relevant graph properties are computed and interpreted from a natural hazard risk perspective, and a simple hazard scenario is then integrated in the analysis. This study highlights both the potential and the relevance of the graph-based approach for natural hazard risk assessment.

Assessing the risk of complex systems to natural hazards is an important and challenging problem. In today’s intricate socio-technological world, characterized by strong urbanization and technological trends, the connections, interdependencies and interactions between exposed elements are crucial. These complex relations call for a paradigm shift in collective risk assessments, from a reductionist approach to a holistic one. Most commonly, the risk of a system is estimated through a reductionist approach, based on the sum of the risk of its elements individually. In contrast, a holistic approach considers the whole system as a unique entity of interconnected elements, where those connections are taken into account in order to more thoroughly assess risk. To support this paradigm shift, this paper proposes a new holistic approach to assess the risk in complex systems based on Graph Theory. The paper is organized in two parts: part I describes the proposed approach, and part II presents an application to a pilot study in Mexico City. In part I, we demonstrate that by representing a complex system such as an urban settlement by means of a network (i.e. a graph), it is possible to take advantage of the techniques made available by the branch of mathematics called Graph Theory to analyse its properties. Moreover, it is possible to establish analogies between certain graph metrics (e.g. authority, degree, hub values) and risk variables (exposure, vulnerability and resilience). Leveraging these analogies, one can not only obtain a deeper knowledge of the system (structure, weaknesses, etc.), but also understand its risk mechanisms (how the impacts of a single or multiple natural hazards are propagated, where they are exacerbated), and therefore assess the disaster risk of the system as a whole, including second-order impacts and cascade effects.

Deregulation of NOTCH1-signalling pathway is common in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). The most of studies are focused on detection of the hotspot c.7541_7542delCT NOTCH1 mutations in exon 34, while studies of mutations in the 3'UTR region are rare. The aims of work were to evaluate the frequencies of mutations in the 3'UTR region of the NOTCH1 gene (9:136,495553-136,495994) in Ukrainian CLL patients, the distribution of rs3124591 genotypes located in that area, and association of NOTCH1 mutations with structure of B-cell receptor.Detection of mutations in the 3'UTR region of the NOTCH1 was performed by direct sequencing in 87 previously untreated CLL patients (from the total group of 237 CLL patients) with unmutated immunoglobulin heavy-chain variable (UM IGHV) genes and without mutations in hotspot regions of TP53, SF3B1, and exon 34 of NOTCH1 genes.Mutations in the 3'UTR region of the NOTCH1 were revealed in three of 87 CLL patients (3.4%). Two cases with non-coding mutations were related to subset #1 of stereotyped B-cell receptors, and one case belonged to stereotyped subset #28a. Analysis with inclusion of 30 UM IGHV cases with previously detected c.7544_7545delCT mutations revealed that the frequency of UM IGHV genes of I phylogenetic clan (except IGHV1-69) was significantly increased, and the frequency of UM IGHV3 and IGHV4 genes, on the contrary, was reduced in NOTCH1-mutated cases comparing with NOTCH1-unmutated cases (p = 0.002) and the general group (p = 0.013). SNP rs3124591 did not affect the risk of CLL and survival parameters of the patients. At the same time, differences were found in the frequency of IGHV gene usage and in the structure of HCDR3 in carriers of individual genotypes.The frequency of NOTCH1 mutations in 3'UTR region was low. Our findings confirmed current data on the association between the structure of the B-cell receptor and the appearance of NOTCH1 mutations. Some features of HCDR3 structure were identified in carriers of TT and CC genotypes of rs3124591.

to analyze TP53, NOTCH1 and SF3B1 mutations in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients, sufferersof Chornobyl NPP accident to clarify the possible relationship between ionizing radiation (IR) and CLL.Mutations of TP53, NOTCH1, and SF3B1 genes were studied by direct sequencing in the main group of 106 CLLpatients exposed to IR due to Chornobyl NPP accident and in the control group of 130 IR non-exposed CLL patients.We found TP53 and SF3B1 mutations with similar incidence in both groups - 11.3 % and 10.0 % in the maingroup, and 12.7 % and 11.5 % in the control group, respectively. In contrast, the frequency of NOTCH1 mutationswas lower in IR-exposed patients (6.7 % vs 17.7 %; p = 0.012). TP53 mutations were seen with equal frequency amongmutated (11.1 %) and unmutated (11.8 %) immunoglobulin heavy-chain variable gene (IGHV) cases in IR-exposedCLL patients, while the tendency to prevalence of TP53 mutations in unmutated compared with mutated IGHV caseswas found in the control group (14.1 % and 5.6 %, correspondingly; p = 0.178). In IR-exposed group SF3B1 muta-tions were combined with mutations in TP53 almost in half of detected cases. In opposite, in the control group therewas mutual exclusivity between SF3B1 and TP53 lesions (p = 0.001). Among IR-exposed CLL patients we found two dif-ferent cases with identical rare mutation of TP53 gene - c.665CT substitution (Pro222Leu). This substitution is verylikely to represent inherited TP53 mutation, which may influence CLL development under IR exposure.Our preliminary data suggest that TP53 abnormalities are involved in CLL development in subjectsexposed at the Chornobyl accident and also a possible connection between inherited sensitivity to ionizing radia-tion caused by mutation in TP53, radiation and CLL development.Meta. Proanalizuvaty spektr mutatsiĭ geniv TP53, NOTCH1 ta SF3B1 u khvorykh na khronichnu limfotsytarnu leĭkemiiu(KhLL), iaki postrazhdaly vnaslidok avariï na Chornobyl's'kiĭ AES, dlia z’iasuvannia mozhlyvykh zv’iazkiv mizhionizuiuchym vyprominiuvanniam (IV) ta KhLL.Metody. Mutatsiï geniv TP53, NOTCH1 ta SF3B1 doslidzhuvaly shliakhom priamogo sekvenuvannia v osnovniĭ grupi 106khvorykh na KhLL, iaki zaznaly vplyvu IV vnaslidok avariï na Chornobyl's'kiĭ AES, a takozh u kontrol'niĭ grupi 130neoprominenykh khvorykh na KhLL.Rezul'taty. Chastota mutatsiĭ geniv TP53 i SF3B1 suttievo ne rozriznialas' v obokh grupakh i stanovyla, vidpovidno,11,3 % i 10,0 % u osnovniĭ ta 12,7 % i 11,5 % u kontrol'niĭ grupi. Vodnochas, chastota mutatsiĭ gena NOTCH1 bulanyzhchoiu u patsiientiv, iaki zaznaly vplyvu IV (6,7 % proty 17,7 % u kontroli; r = 0,012). V osnovniĭ grupi chastotamutatsiï gena TP53 bula odnakovoiu u vypadkakh z mutovanymy (11,1 %) i nemutovanymy (11,8 %) genamyvariabel'nykh dil'nyts' vazhkykh lantsiugiv imunoglobuliniv (IGHV), todi iak v kontrol'niĭ grupi vyiavlena tendentsiiado zbil'shennia chastoty mutatsiĭ TP53 u khvorykh z nemutovanymy IGHV genamy porivniano z mutovanymy IGHV genamy(14,1 % ta 5,6 %, r = 0,178). V osnovniĭ grupi mutatsiï geniv SF3B1 i TP53 maĭzhe u polovyny khvorykh zustrichalys'odnochasno. Navpaky, v kontrol'niĭ grupi isnuvala vzaiemna ekskliuzyvnist' mizh naiavnistiu mutatsiĭ geniv SF3B1 iTP53 (r = 0,001). Sered patsiientiv z KhLL, iaki zaznaly vplyvu IV, vyiavleno dva vypadky z identychnoiu ridkisnoiumutatsiieiu gena TP53 – zamishchennia c.665C-#062;T (Pro222Leu). Tsia zamina, ĭmovirno, ie vrodzhenym polimorfizmom genaTP53, shcho mozhe vplyvaty na rozvytok KhLL pid vplyvom IV.Vysnovok. Nashi poperedni dani svidchat', shcho porushennia gena TP53 zadiiani u rozvytku KhLL u khvorykh, oprominenykhpid chas avariï na Chornobyl's'kiĭ AES, a takozh pro mozhlyvyĭ zv’iazok vrodzhenoï chutlyvosti do ionizuiuchogovyprominiuvannia, obumovlenoï polimorfnymy variantamy TP53, z vplyvom radiatsiĭnogo oprominennia i rozvytkomKhLL.

In this paper, a clinical case of combination of chronic myeloid leukemia and T-lymphoblastic lymphoma is present-ed, which is currently a rather rare finding for a clinician. The diagnosis of T-lymphoblastic lymphoma is establishedafter 2 years from the verification of chronic myeloid leukemia. The course of diseases and approaches to treatmentare described.The pathogenetic relationship between myeloid and lymphoid diseases remains unclear and is likely to be the resultof several factors - radiation, chemical and, consequently, genetic disorders.U daniĭ roboti predstavlenyĭ klinichnyĭ vypadok poiednannia khronichnoï miieloïdnoï leĭkemiï ta T-limfoblastnoïlimfomy, shcho narazi ie dovoli ridkisnoiu znakhidkoiu dlia klinitsysta. Diagnoz T-limfoblastnoï limfomy vstanovle-no cherez 2 roky vid veryfikatsiï khronichnoï miieloïdnoï leĭkemiï. Opysano perebig zakhvoriuvan' i pidkhody do liku-vannia.Patogenetychnyĭ zv’iazok mizh zakhvoriuvanniamy miieloïdnoï ta limfoïdnoï pryrody zalyshaiet'sia nez’iasovanym ta,naĭvirogidnishe, ie rezul'tatom diï dekil'kokh faktoriv – radiatsiĭnogo, khimichnogo i vnaslidok ts'ogo – genetychnykhporushen'.