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The information base of the study is the time series of the daily exchange rate of the currency pair USD/JPY, the US 10-year Treasury bond (TB 10), the Japanese government bond 10-year (JGB 10), the volatility index (VIX) of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), which calculated by Bloomberg. Study period: December 1, 2015 (the date the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, which initiated a new regime - began easing its ZIRP zero interest rate policy) to December 29, 2023. The relationship between monetary policy and the currency pair USD/JPY is evaluated using 3 approaches: 1) a rally dynamic system based on the standard theory of nonlinear differential equations aimed at eliminating psychological noise (1/f noise, pink noise, trend noise with spectrum capacity); 2) regression of instrumental variables with heteroskedasticity aimed at managing unobservable sources of variability; 3) an event tracking method to measure anomalous asset price response, analyzing the daily price action of USD/JPY to detect market-related fluctuations in the exchange rate and separate the impact of general market trends from related differences in interest rates. The study found that the US Federal Reserve's (Fed’s) monetary policy only occasionally affects the USD/JPY exchange rate, and it changes mainly when monetary policy deviates from expected future trajectories. Within the studied period, this happened only 3 times: growth on December 16, 2015; emergency rate reduction due to COVID-19 on March 15, 2020; and the first increase of 75 basis points on June 15, 2022 (the article estimates the impact of each of these episodes on the exchange rate). Statements by the Fed on monetary policy affect the price dynamics of the USD/JPY pair in the short term (since short-term psychological expectations play a decisive role in shaping the dynamics of the currency market), but not often (if the statement on monetary policy is consistent with market forecasts, it is practically will not affect exchange rates). The Fed’s adoption of tools such as "forward guidance" and official statements to inform the future course of monetary policy indirectly affects the price dynamics of USD/JPY. The price action of USD/JPY was driven by the fundamentals of the difference in interest rates between the US and Japanese bonds, which are influenced by the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In 2023, it could be hard to attempt to challenge FX intervention except to curb “excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates” like the Minister of Finance’s (MoF) 2022 intervention.

This study investigates factors influencing the stability of reserve currencies. Analysis of Ukraine's economic indicators reveals a strong relationship between GDP, CPI, exports, imports, and exchange rates. Despite 2022 being a turbulent year for the euro, the US dollar remains the primary global reserve currency. Factors contributing to the dollar's dominance include its stable value, the size of the US economy, and geopolitical power. Effective management of the interaction between the dollar and euro is crucial for global economic stability and growth. Both currencies can coexist and thrive, with the euro potentially contributing to a more balanced global monetary system. Correlation-regression analysis of their competition reveals significant relationships, underscoring their impact on global economic processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been widely documented that the relationship between crude oil prices and the value of US dollar changes over time (Beckmann et al. in Energy Econ 88:104772, 2020). However, the underlying economic driver for the time-varying relationship is not clear. Based on the competitive storage theory, we provide theoretical evidence that greater inelasticity of market demand for crude oil induced by low inventories is expected to lead to higher responsiveness of crude oil prices to exchange rate changes. We empirically test this hypothesis using the threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model and show that crude oil prices respond to shocks to the US dollar exchange rates in an asymmetric manner. Changes in the US dollar exchange rates have greater and more significant influence on crude oil prices in the low-inventory regime than in the high-inventory regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper will argue that the current level of international debt is a huge 'bubble' waiting to burst, and that, if and when it does so, the entire financial structure of global capitalism will collapse, taking capitalism, as such, with it. The mechanism of this collapse, if it occurs, will be a collapse of the international banking system, and complete loss of confidence on the exchange markets in any form of reserve currency - either the US dollar or any putative replacement for it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The exchange rate value of the rupiah against the US dollar fluctuates and tends to depreciate throughout the year. So it is very important to analyze the factors that influence the exchange rates to maintain its stability. The relationship between several macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, GDP, and trade openness as well as political stability factors and world oil prices on exchange rates are the main topics of discussion in this study. Monthly data in time series 2010-2020, processed using the Eviews 12 and tested using the multiple linear regression method. There is a significant positive effect between interest rates, GDP, and world oil prices for the type of WTI on the exchange rates. Meanwhile, trade openness, political stability, and world oil prices for the Brent type have a significant negative effect on the exchange rates. As for the inflation variable, it does not have a significant effect on the exchange rates. The government as a policy maker is expected to be able to regulate macroeconomic factors, maintain political stability, and control the supply of crude oil properly to maintain the exchange rate stability.

Purpose -- The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of Russian Stock Exchange (IMOEX) on world oil prices (WTI), with the US Dollar variable serving as a mediating factor in the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Russian currency (Ruble). Method -- The research employs an associative causality research approach for data analysis. Path analysis techniques are utilized to examine the nexus between Russian Stock Exchange (IMOEX) and world oil prices with the US dollar serves as intervening variables. The study relies on secondary data collected on a weekly basis over a two-year period, specifically from 2021 to 2022. A total of 96 sample data points were gathered from various sources, including the internet, papers, books, and other references that support the research. Result -- The findings indicate a significant positive impact of the Russian Stock Exchange (IMOEX) on the US Dollar/Rubles exchange rate. However, the US Dollar variable does not have a direct effect on world oil prices. Additionally, the Russian Stock Exchange (IMOEX), when mediated by the US Dollar, does not show any significant impact on the world oil price of WTI. Novelty -- To the best of our knowledge, no studies were identified that employed the US Dollar as a mediating variable in the Ruble/USD exchange rate. This study introduces a novel aspect by incorporating this mediating variable into the analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The internationalization of the renminbi (RMB) is viewed by some experts as a potential challenge to the US dollar's (USD) hegemonic status in the current global monetary system. This study employs a mixed theoretical framework to delve into the prospective evolution of China's monetary influence. By applying the power transition theory to analyze the global monetary power structure, this study evaluates China's dissatisfaction as a potential challenger against the dominance of the USD and examines the power parity between China and the United States. On a regional scale, the analysis focuses on possible Asian monetary integration of the RMB-domination by adopting the neofunctionalist paradigm derived from the European experience and juxtaposing this process with European monetary integration. The analysis shows that China has not been able to directly challenge the dominance of the USD, nor has it effectively spearheaded the agenda for regional monetary integration. More specifically, China's export-oriented growth model has hindered the emergence of the RMB as a substantial competition to the USD within East and South Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The internationalization of the renminbi (RMB) is viewed by some experts as a potential challenge to the US dollar's (USD) hegemonic status in the current global monetary system. This study employs a mixed theoretical framework to delve into the prospective evolution of China’s monetary influence. By applying the power transition theory to analyze the global monetary power structure, this study evaluates China’s dissatisfaction as a potential challenger against the dominance of the USD and examines the power parity between China and the United States. On a regional scale, the analysis focuses on possible Asian monetary integration of the RMB-domination by adopting the neofunctionalist paradigm derived from the European experience and juxtaposing this process with European monetary integration. The analysis shows that China has not been able to directly challenge the dominance of the USD, nor has it effectively spearheaded the agenda for regional monetary integration. More specifically, China’s export-oriented growth model has hindered the emergence of the RMB as a substantial competition to the USD within East and South Asia.

Purpose — The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of Russian Stock Exchange (IMOEX) on world oil prices (WTI), with the US Dollar variable serving as a mediating factor in the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Russian currency (Ruble). Method — The research employs an associative causality research approach for data analysis. Path analysis techniques are utilized to examine the nexus between Russian Stock Exchange (IMOEX) and world oil prices with the US dollar serves as intervening variables. The study relies on secondary data collected on a weekly basis over a two-year period, specifically from 2021 to 2022. A total of 96 sample data points were gathered from various sources, including the internet, papers, books, and other references that support the research. Result — The findings indicate a significant positive impact of the Russian Stock Exchange (IMOEX) on the US Dollar/Rubles exchange rate. However, the US Dollar variable does not have a direct effect on world oil prices. Additionally, the Russian Stock Exchange (IMOEX), when mediated by the US Dollar, does not show any significant impact on the world oil price of WTI. Novelty — To the best of our knowledge, no studies were identified that employed the US Dollar as a mediating variable in the Ruble/USD exchange rate. This study introduces a novel aspect by incorporating this mediating variable into the analysis.

AbstractThe US dollar is the most prevalent currency to settle internationally traded merchandise. A few existing studies demonstrate that the US dollar can significantly impact a country’s trade balance with a non-US partner. Nevertheless, the current literature indicates the remarkable deficiency of empirical results for the case of India despite the vital importance of the US dollar in its international trade. Recognizing the European Union (EU) as the largest trading partner of India over the 2000Q1–2022Q2 period, this study is the first to explore how the US dollar influences India’s trade balance with the EU by employing the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) method. The results show that, no matter if the US dollar is employed, the depreciation of rupee cannot facilitate India’s trade balance, and the appreciation has a negative effect. Therefore, devaluation is an ineffectual policy for supporting India’s trade balance with the EU.

The beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, like any conflict of such proportions in the past, caused a significant disruption of international, financial, monetary and trade flows, primarily due to the sanctions imposed by the collective West on the Russian economy and the imposed ban on the import of energy, grains and other products of Russian origin. Although, based on analyzes and expectations, many Western economists and creators of the sanctions claimed that they will cause damage to the Russian economy, and they will not cause macroeconomic destabilization of the European economy, that is, they will only contribute to the reduction of export revenues in the Russian federal budget, and thus will indirectly imply the curtailment of the funds for financing the war and a quick end to it, but the sanctions caused the opposite effect as a rapid increase in the stock prices of oil, oil derivatives and basic grains was observed. The new situation on the world stock markets has a significant impact on a large number of countries, including the Eurozone, as an optimal currency area and an economy dependent on the import of Russian cheap energy, life and agricultural fertilizers, which according to a large number of studies are included in a crucial condition for rapid economic growth and maintenance of macroeconomic stability, to reduce with high inflation rates, budget deficit, growth of public borrowing and management of the euro in relation to the US dollar. The focus of this paper is the historical overview of the change in the value of the euro in relation to the US dollar and the effect of the same on the flow of trade between the Eurozone and the USA as the largest trading partner and the identification and analysis of the key internal and external factors that caused the depreciation of the euro to the extent that in a certain period the US dollar is more expensive in relation to the euro, which further destabilizes macroeconomic parameters. Consequently, the paper provides an answer to the question related to the reflection of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the fall in the value of the euro and the significance of the transmission channels of the same within the international financial and trade system, with special reference on relations between the Eurozone and the USA. The empirical research is conducted using secondary data from relevant institutions such as Eurostat and European commission reports, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and World Trade Organization (WTO). The research consists of descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and regression analysis using the method of ordinary least squares (OLS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the interplay between long memory and the parametric and nonparametric bootstrap techniques in virtual and real currency markets, specifically focusing on Bitcoin and the US dollar (USD) from 2019 to late 2022. The study compares the properties of the bootstrap tests, analyzes long memory effects, and evaluates the significance using P-value plots. Additionally, the research examines the corrected size-power curves to address size distortions. The findings confirm the presence of long memory in the examined currency markets and underscore the importance of accurate bootstrap utilization for robust analysis. The study provides valuable insights for investors and decision-makers in understanding the dynamics of the pre/post-COVID era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Optimum. Economic Studies is the property of University of Bialystok and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article will argue that the development of Chinese financial technology, or ‘fintech’, over the past decade, is primarily motivated to safeguard Chinese monetary sovereignty, which is threatened by the proliferation of non-state cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, that have exacerbated the problem of capital flight, not only for China, but for other non-Western countries that have lost fortunes to outflows seeking access Western financial assets. This raises the question, how is China responding to the emergence of cryptocurrencies as a development that reinforces US financial hegemony? The answer to be explored by this paper is by embracing elements of cryptocurrency technology in the form of digital payment systems and blockchain technology. These Chinese fintech developments pose a serious unprecedented challenge to the financial hegemony of the US insofar as it compels other countries to copy the Chinese response because they desire the tools to limit illegal outflows of capital that have historically propped up the US Dollar.

This article questions to what extent are the conditions ripe for the decline of the US dollar as a hegemonic currency. The issue at hand has gained additional salience after the imposition of unprecedented financial sanctions against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. Contrary to numerous commentaries predicting the erosion of US dollar, this research relies on the concept of structural power which outlines reasons for the continued US dollar hegemony atop the global monetary hierarchy. US dollar hegemony is still stable due to continued trust in the merit of US security guarantees on behalf of US formal allies and security partners. Furthermore, US dollar hegemony is also stable due to above average profitability of the US corporate sector, as well as above average US GDP growth rates relative to the rest of the world. Simultaneously, deeply institutionalised export-led growth models of surplus states create an obstacle to the internationalisation of their respective currencies. On the demand side, US dollar does not show worrying signs of vulnerability, while on the supply side there is still absence of strong and organised competitors willing to carry the burden of internationalisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geopolitical Eurasia is the large continental mass with the Heartland core group: Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Mongolia and so on, exporters of raw materials by direct land and the Continental Rimland: China, Germany, Turkey, Italy, South Korea, India, Pakistan, Thailand and so on, made up of Continental Powers, while the Oceanic Powers, led by the US dominating maritime trade and oceanic embargo capacity, brings together exporting powers: Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, UAE and so on and industrialized maritime powers: Great Britain, Japan, etc., alongside exporting states constrained by them, from Africa, Latin America and island Asia. If the US succeeds in the trade blockade of the Heartland, stopping the export of cheap and abundant raw materials, it indirectly brings the European Union, mainland East Asia (China) and South Asia (India) to its knees, delivering four strikes direct and preventing the emergence of a power that would take its place as world leader. If the Rimland manages to bypass the American embargo by continuing to import from Heartaland, Britain will lose dominance in Europe to Germany, Japan will lose the dominance of Asia before China, Saudi Arabia before Iran and India will dominate the Indian Ocean, hence the 3+1 main regions taking over Africa, America and Australia, which will culminate in the decline of the US power, the dominance of the Eurasian world and of the continental powers before the maritime powers.

At the heart of this conflict of Ukraine war is the American threat to break Russia into multiple states; alongside the Russian threat to create a new global trading currency with China as equal partners. These two contrary themes find themselves in mortal conflict in the land of Ukraine. The argument is that this bigger picture of this war explains why both sides are likely to fight to the end. Neither think that they can concede. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of the author's concept of the International Flows Equilibrium Exchange Rate (IFEER) is the basis for the mathematical exchange rate modeling of two interconnected equal economies. IFEER-concept allows modeling the exchange rate dynamics of relatively medium-term equilibrium and short- and long-term disequilibrium. Discrete and integral versions of the concept are the basis for further modeling. New structural models of medium-, short- and long-term dynamics and new final structural dependencies of the exchange rate on the system of fundamental factors are the main results. The models include mathematically formalized export-import and capital flows and international competitive advantages indicators. The modeling allowed the revealing of the structural pricing mechanism of the exchange rate dynamics from new positions. We verify the US dollar to the Russian ruble exchange rate modeling during periods of financial and economic crises in recent Russian history, based on a systematic analysis of the exchange rate policy. Because of the analysis, the fall in export prices of oil and other energy carriers in international markets, the rise in consumer prices within the country, and the fall in aggregate output are the main reasons for the fall of the Russian ruble. The conducted modeling allows for the evaluation of the short-term contribution to the crisis depreciation dynamics. The mathematical tools allow for the development of the decision-making process on the exchange rate regulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to evaluate the impact of major and minor changes in the Euro Zone and US interest rates on the EUR/USD exchange rate between 1 January 1999 and 31 December 2020. Therefore, twelve events are analyzed in this period, five related to changes in the US interest rate, six related to changes in the European interest rate, and finally, a single event in which both interest rates undergo an equal variation on the same date. The event study methodology was used, which, through the calculation of abnormal returns, makes it possible to evaluate whether there was a repercussion of the events on the value of the EUR/USD exchange rate. This methodology is used in several studies related to capital markets. The obtained results prove that there are abnormal returns with statistical significance on the event days, and, on the days that follow, changes in the interest rates have an impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate; however, there is no clear direction of the asset after the events occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the existing international political economy (IPE) literature, the demise of the Bretton Woods order is widely regarded as a key transformative moment in the development of the global political economy. Three successive waves of IPE literature have highlighted how the collapse of the monetary regime heralded the politics of exchange rates, the explosion of global financial markets, and new institutional configurations. Contrastingly, drawing on and developing heterodox theories of money, this paper postulates that the globalization of financial markets was rooted in the post-war processes of monetary transformation. More specifically, as the US dollar operated as 'money of account' and dynamically developed as social relation of credit and debt at the international level, the dual features of the US dollar secured the emergence of global financial markets in the 1960s and 1970s. Thus, the end of the Bretton Woods order entrenched the transformative features of the US dollar on an international scale such that the US dollar was firmly established as institutionalized money, and US government debts became 'risk'-free assets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article studies the impact of oil price change on the stock market, the exchange rate and the real estate market in the US over the last decade. To this end, we model the dynamics of the returns for these markets and test the effect of oil market volatility on their dynamics. Through different econometric investigations, we show, in the context of Covid‐19, that oil price has experienced significant effects on the US stock market and the US dollar exchange rate, while it has no significant impact on the US real estate market. In particular, we highlight, first, a positive and significant reaction of the stock market toward an oil price shock, which might be explained by the effect of high oil financialization over the last decade. Second, we show an adverse effect of the oil price change on the US dollar, suggesting a negative relationship between the oil price and the US dollar. Accordingly, the information provided by the oil sector might help to improve the forecast of the Dow Jones and the US$\€ exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the potential portfolio diversification between Bitcoin, bonds, equities, and the US dollar. We make use of two approaches for constructing the portfolio. The first is the standard minimum variance approach, and the alternative is based on combining risk and return when the portfolio is constructed. The portfolio based on the minimum variance approach does not result in increasing the return per unit of risk compared to the corresponding value for the best single asset, in this case, Bitcoin. However, the portfolio based on the approach that combines risk and return in the optimization problem does show a return per unit risk higher than the corresponding value for any of the four assets. Thus, the portfolio diversification benefit with respect to these four assets, in terms of return per unit risk, exists only if the portfolio is constructed via the new approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The persistence or decline of US Dollar as a pervasive international currency has been one of the most important issues in the field of international political economy, since the beginning of the 21st century. While some scholars point to the continued dominance of US Dollar by citing the dominance of the United States in the world political and economic equations, others refer to the decline in the hegemony of this international currency due to the US economic weakness and its international alternatives. The present study aims to recognize the factors affecting the persistence or decline of US Dollar hegemony in the 21st century by using descriptive-analytical method based on considering available data and to examin the scenarios resulting from these situations. After raising this question that whether the hegemony of US Dollar as an international currency is still continuing or is facing a decline in the 21st century, this article is hypothesizing that despite the various factors affecting the continuation or decline of US Dollar hegemony, it seems that the continuity of US Dollar hegemony, as an international currency, will be strongly linked to the continuation of the existing international system and the US capability to keep it. The findings of this study in the framework of hegemonic stability theory show that the US Dollar hegemony will continue with some fluctuations depending on the willingness, volition and producing public goods by the United States in the short- and medium-term. However, in the long term, given the economic preponderance of China and other other emerging economies, a multi-currency monetary system may be formed in which the US Dollar would be a currency among other currencies.

Geopolitical Eurasia is the large continental mass with the Heartland core group: Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Mongolia and so on, exporters of raw materials by direct land and the Continental Rimland: China, Germany, Turkey, Italy, South Korea, India, Pakistan, Thailand and so on, made up of Continental Powers, while the Oceanic Powers, led by the US dominating maritime trade and oceanic embargo capacity, brings together exporting powers: Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, UAE and so on and industrialized maritime powers: Great Britain, Japan, etc., alongside exporting states constrained by them, from Africa, Latin America and island Asia. If the US succeeds in the trade blockade of the Heartland, stopping the export of cheap and abundant raw materials, it indirectly brings the European Union, mainland East Asia (China) and South Asia (India) to its knees, delivering four strikes direct and preventing the emergence of a power that would take its place as world leader. If the Rimland manages to bypass the American embargo by continuing to import from Heartaland, Britain will lose dominance in Europe to Germany, Japan will lose the dominance of Asia before China, Saudi Arabia before Iran and India will dominate the Indian Ocean, hence the 3+1 main regions taking over Africa, America and Australia, which will culminate in the decline of the US power, the dominance of the Eurasian world and of the continental powers before the maritime powers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Oil prices, interest rates, the US dollar, and associated uncertainties are analyzed. • A network connectedness approach is used. • Oil market uncertainty is strongest in risk transmission. • Monetary policy uncertainty is the top risk recipient. • Cross-market spillovers outweigh within-market spillovers. This study examines the dynamic network connectedness among the oil market, monetary policy, and exchange rate dynamics in the US. Two dimensions of the relevant markets—specifically, oil prices, interest rates, and US dollar value—along with their associated uncertainties, are analyzed. Our results suggest that the strongest source of risk transmission is oil market uncertainty, with exchange rate market uncertainty and the US dollar following behind. Monetary policy uncertainty emerges as the primary recipient of risk, followed by oil prices and federal funds rate. The results also show that cross-market spillovers are more prominent than within-market spillovers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This study examines the impact of the US dollar (USD) on oil market uncertainty (OVX). • Explainable machine learning is employed for this purpose. • The USD stands out as the most crucial variable influencing the OVX. • Elevated levels of the USD are strongly connected with higher levels of the OVX. • The US dollar frequently interacts with gold market uncertainty (GVZ). This study uses the CatBoost algorithm along with the Shapley Additive Explanation method to explore the link between the US dollar and oil market uncertainty, while also considering other macroeconomic factors. We find that the US dollar is the most influential factor affecting oil market uncertainty compared to other economic risks and uncertainties. Increased levels of the US dollar are significantly associated with higher levels of oil market uncertainty. Furthermore, the US dollar exhibits the highest level of interaction with gold market uncertainty. Our analysis offers valuable insights into the role of the US dollar's strength in oil market dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper utilizes the multilateral prices of West Texas Intermediate futures and the US dollar to study the nature of oil‐dollar linkages. The empirical findings confirm a contagion effect between these two markets in the 1990 Gulf War, while flight‐to‐quality phenomena from oil to the US dollar are confirmed as a common feature for the 2008 and 2014 oil crashes, implicitly emphasizing the safe‐haven role of the US dollar during oil market turmoil. These results offer significant evidence for nonlinear and asymmetric relationship between the crude oil market and the US dollar market during all periods of oil crashes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyzes if the international monetary system calls for reform and whether China and the renminbi will play a decisive role in the post COVID-19 world. It also evaluates the main scenarios and trends that is being discussed since the global crisis – selecting the relevant authors, journals, institutions and opinions – examines present conditions and tries to extrapolate into future trends. Opting for a nontechnical approach, the article could be a good insight into the international monetary system, for academics, non-experts and policy makers. The paper concludes that if the 2008 crisis has induced the growth of the China role in the international monetary governance and the increase of the renminbi internationalization, the COVID-19 pandemic and post crisis reconstruction could generate a deeper reform of the international monetary system, in which the Chinese currency will strengthen its global position alongside the US dollar and the euro.

Five diffusion models are estimated using three different foreign exchange rates to find an appropriate model for each. Daily spot exchange rates expressed as the prices of 1 euro, 1 British pound and 100 Japanese yen in US dollars, respectively denoted by USD/EUR, USD/GBP, and USD/100JPY, are used. The maximum likelihood estimation method is implemented after deriving an approximate log-transition density function (log-TDF) of the diffusion processes because the true log-TDF is unknown. Of the five models, the most general model is the best fit for the USD/GBP, and USD/100JPY exchange rates, but it is not the case for the case of USD/EUR. Although we could not find any evidence of the mean-reverting property for the USD/EUR exchange rate, the USD/GBP, and USD/100JPY exchange rates show the mean-reversion behavior. Interestingly, the volatility function of the USD/EUR exchange rate is increasing in the exchange rate while the volatility functions of the USD/GBP and USD/100Yen exchange rates have a U-shape. Our results reveal that more care has to be taken when determining a diffusion model for the exchange rate. The results also imply that we may have to use a more general diffusion model than those proposed in the literature when developing economic theories for the behavior of the exchange rate and pricing foreign currency options or derivatives.

This study aims to evaluate the impact of major and minor changes in the Euro Zone and US interest rates on the EUR/USD exchange rate between 1 January 1999 and 31 December 2020. Therefore, twelve events are analyzed in this period, five related to changes in the US interest rate, six related to changes in the European interest rate, and finally, a single event in which both interest rates undergo an equal variation on the same date. The event study methodology was used, which, through the calculation of abnormal returns, makes it possible to evaluate whether there was a repercussion of the events on the value of the EUR/USD exchange rate. This methodology is used in several studies related to capital markets. The obtained results prove that there are abnormal returns with statistical significance on the event days, and, on the days that follow, changes in the interest rates have an impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate; however, there is no clear direction of the asset after the events occur.

This essay explores the domestic foundations of currency internationalisation. I consider how a state that internationalises its currency might sustain the domestic economic and social costs of doing so. In particular I highlight the role of welfare provision as a neglected element of the domestic political economy of currency internationalisation. I examine the trajectory of welfare provision in Britain (1870–1930), the United States (1950–2020) and China (2000–2018), and use this data to consider some of the ways in which these costs might be related to the question of issuing world money. In this essay I suggest, first, that our conceptual framework for understanding currency internationalisation is strengthened when we consider welfare provision as an important element of the domestic foundation of issuing world money; and, second, that it is unclear whether the current level of welfare provision in China is adequate to meeting the costs to China of fully internationalising its currency as world money. This framework generates further insights about how China's challenge to American monetary leadership remains incomplete, and provides another angle of vision by which we might assess the multifaceted foundations of US dollar domination in the global political economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the suspension of the convertibility of dollars into gold by the U.S. government, which led to the demise of the Bretton Woods international monetary system (1944), this article offers a contribution to understanding the key features of Bretton Woods. It analyses the mid-term developments that triggered its crisis in the early Seventies, and why nowadays the U.S. currency still serves as the pillar of world trade and payments, and is the most important reserve currency and means of payment. Today these questions are all the more worth addressing as the U.S. economy share in total world trade is on a downward trend and new currencies (Euro, Renminbi) are coming to centre stage in world economic affairs. The author traces the main features of the international monetary system born out of the end of 19th century Gold Standard, and laid out at Bretton Woods; the various reasons behind the origins of its collapse during the 1960s; a reflection on the central role of the U.S. dollar in world trade and payments throughout the last fifty years against the framework of the rampant ascendancy of new global financial players. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract We explore how the US presidential effect in stock returns is connected to the US presidential effect in foreign exchange returns to the US dollar. Our results for the 1973–2016 period show that the existence of a presidential effect in stock returns depends on how a firm's stock returns are associated with changes in the value of the US dollar. We document that a complex association exists between presidential effects in stock returns, stock risk premiums, macro-economic variables, and the foreign exchange market. Overall, the presidential effect in stock returns is driven by exporters through their exposure to the presidential effect in returns to the US dollar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For many decades, the relationship between the gold market and the US dollar has dominated the international economy. In times of economic and policy uncertainty, the gold price traditionally increased, while in periods of growth and certainty, the US dollar usually appreciated compared to other currencies. This paper aims to re-assess this classic relationship and determine the causality between the gold market and the US currency. To achieve the objective of the study, a quantitative econometric methodology was utilised for the period 1995 to 2020. A Vector Autoregression model was estimated, including three variables: the gold market, US dollar index, and real GDP for the US. Interesting relationships and causalities between the three variables were estimated. The relationship between the gold market and real GDP seems stronger than the relationship between the gold and US dollar indexes. An important implication of this study is that changes in the gold price are not a significant indicator on its owns to track changes in the US currency. The value of the research is in the renewed analysis and updated coefficients on the long and short-run between the classic variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Mexican Journal of Economics & Finance / Revista Mexicana de Economia y Finanzas is the property of Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Review of European Affairs is the property of Polish European Community Studies Association (PECSA) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The analysis of dollar inflation performed by the authors through the approximation of empirical data for 1913–2012 with a power-law function with an accelerating log-periodic oscillation superimposed over it has made it possible to detect a quasi-singularity point around the 17th of December, 2012. It is demonstrated that, if adequate measures are not taken, one may expect a surge of inflation around the end of this year that may also mark the start of stagflation as there are no sufficient grounds to expect the re-start of the dynamic growth of the world economy by that time. On the other hand, as the experience of the 1970s and the 1980s indicates, the stagflation consequences can only be eliminated with great difficulties and at a rather high cost, because the combination of low levels of economic growth and employment with high inflation leads to a sharp decline in consumption, aggravating the economic depression. In order to mitigate the inflationary consequences of the explosive growth of money (and, first of all, US dollar) supply it is necessary to take urgently the world monetary emission under control. This issue should become central at the forthcoming G8 and G20 summits.

The author examines the factors, conditioning the formation of the US national currency as the world reserve currency. The conditions for the dollar to dominate the world financial arena in modern conditions have been determined. The prospects for strengthening the positions of the euro, the Chinese yuan and the Russian ruble in the status of the world reserve currency, - have been evaluated. Based on the results of the study, a conclusion has drawn on the substantial limitations of the pos-sibility of transforming the single-currency model of the world financial system based on the US dollar at the present stage

The real exchange rates of the currencies of non-Eurozone countries are determined to a large extent by the behavior of the euro, because intra-EU trade accounts for a large proportion of the countries' balances of payments. Given that their currencies and the euro are also influenced by the EUR/USD exchange rate and oil price changes, the tripolar model appears to provide an appropriate analytical framework. The empirical results of this study support the hypothesis that in the long run the euro-dollar and Polish zloty-euro exchange rates are driven by crude oil prices, and that the parities of the real risk-free interest rates determine the euro-dollar exchange rate in the short-run and the zloty-euro exchange rate in the long-run. They also show that in recent years the euro-dollar exchange rate was long influenced by the ECB's asset purchase program. The impulse response analysis clearly indicates that in addition to shocks from credit default risk premiums and interest rates innovations oil price shocks too are a significant and pervasive source of the nonstationary dynamics of the exchange rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Economic Annals-XXI / Ekonomìčnij Časopis-XXI is the property of Institute of Society Transformation and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)