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Over the last two decades, Urmia Lake has lost 72.1% of its surface area and more than 90% of its water volume. This Lake is in danger of complete desication and becoming one of the most harmful sources of salt storms in the coming decade. In this research, the water balance of the Urmia Lake basin was investigated to detremine the minimum water level requiered to prevent the formation of salt storms. The role of agricultural activities and climatic parameters in the drying up of the lake was studied using time series data, including Landsat imagery, altimetry data, ERA5-Land data, meteorological data, water-well information, and hydrological modeling using a water balance method. The results of the study indicate a significant relationship between the decrease in the lake water level and the expansion of agricultural land (1972–2022) and the increase in air temperature. No significant relationship was observed between the lake water level changes and rainfall patterns in the period of 1985–2022. Excessive use of groundwater for agriculture has led to decrease in groundwater resources, increase in soil temperature, and increase in evaporation. In addition, the construction of numerous dams has had a negative impact on the flow of water from the rivers to the lake, which has resulted in the reduction of the water volume of the lake. On the other hand, the long-term spatial and temporal anomalies of water resources and climatic parameters in this watershed are not promising. Therefore, according to the current climatic conditions, the results of the study show that for the stable conditions of the lake water, the water level of 1272.5 m above the sea level should be maintained to prevent salt storms formation from the bed of Urmia Lake.Highlights: Urmia Lake has lost 72.1% of its surface area and more than 90% of its water volume. The increased agriculture in the periods 1995-2000 and 2000-2022 showed a significant relationship with the decrease in the water of Lake Urmia. Changes in atmospheric parameters in the long-term showed a significant relationship with the decrease of water in the Urmia Lake. 1272.5 m.a.s.l is calculated as the most achievable water level to prevent the lake bed from becoming a source of salt storm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Urmia Lake Basin has been severely affected by the unbalanced exploitation of water resources. To better manage the use of integrated water resources, the coupled SWAT-MODFLOW-NWT was adopted for the Mahabad Plain in the Urmia Lake Basin, N.W. Iran. The results indicated that a multifunctional calibration of SWAT and MODFLOW-NWT hydrological models in a large-scale irrigated area was necessary, using parameters such as evapotranspiration and crop yield in addition to the usual surface runoff and water table measures. The coupled model was then used to evaluate several water allocation scenarios, such as alternate proportions of irrigation water allocation from conjunctive water resources. The ultimate objective of adopting these scenarios was to increase the residual share of the water supply in order to compensate for the deprived share of Urmia Lake. The results of this study demonstrated that that the coupled SWAT-MODFLOW-NWT model was able to satisfactorily simulate the surface and groundwater balance components at different spatial and temporal dimensions. The results indicate that the Mahabad aquifer is capable of supplying irrigation water needs in the central and northern regions, with some limitations around running rivers. Furthermore, groundwater sustainability indicators showed that even with an additional 30% of the water supply from groundwater, the long-term sustainability of groundwater resources was preserved Ultimately, the findings indicated that a reduction in water allocation from surface waters can lead to an increase in water release to the lake of 16 million cubic meters (21%) to 18 million cubic meters (25%) in different years. The outcomes of this study can serve as a guiding principle for the optimal and sustainable allocation of surface and groundwater resources in highly competitive and fragile basins such as Lake Urmia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Replacing regular high-water-consuming crops with tree species tolerant to salinity and drought, such as pistachio, has been suggested to reduce social and economic crises around Urmia Lake in the West Azerbaijan province of Iran, which has been negatively impacted by climate change and water resource mismanagement. In the current study, to determine suitable sites for pistachio production, the climatic requirements of the pistachio tree were determined, and relevant data, including a map of land use, soil type and limiting factors (salinity), average temperature, relative humidity, elevation, slope maps, and layers were collected from local meteorological and agriculture administrations. All data were prepared as grid surfaces and raster layers in GIS to produce digital layers of individual factors. A spatial overlaying analysis was used to assign weights to each variable in each layer cell, and finally, suitable sites were determined with overlay analysis. According to the results, there are potentially about 195 thousand hectares of relatively suitable areas in different regions of the province. However, considering the restricted water sources at the study site, it is recommended that the extension of pistachio orchards be targeted and timed based on maximizing profit and minimizing the use of water resources. Moreover, it should mainly focus on replacing worn-out and non-economical units and high water-demanding crops (approximately 30,000 hectares). To validate the results, all previously cultivated areas were collected and compared with targeted suitable regions, indicating that about 90.42% of pistachio orchards in the province are in suitable areas for pistachio cultivation. Buffer zone areas of Urmia Lake are among the most suitable areas. Eventually, the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve related to observed fields was 0.92, which demonstrates high performance in targeting suitable areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The water level and surface area of Urmia Lake, located in the northwest of Iran, has decreased dramatically, presenting significant challenges for hydrological modeling due to complex interactions between surface and groundwater. In this study, the impact of agricultural activities on streamflow within one of the largest sub-basins of Urmia Lake is assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for hydrological assessments. To have accurate assessments, land use change detections were considered by a novel method, which merges the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to create a two-band NDVI-DEM image, effectively differentiating between agricultural and rangeland fields. Our findings reveal that agricultural development and irrigation, escalating between 1977 and 2015, resulted in increased annual evapotranspiration (ET) (ranging from 295 mm to 308 mm) and a decrease in yearly streamflow, from 317 million cubic meters to 300 million cubic meters. Overall, our study highlights the significant role that agricultural development and irrigation may play in contributing to the shrinking of Lake Urmia, underscoring the need for improved regional water management strategies to address these challenges, though further analysis across additional basins would be necessary for broader conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to forecast the spatiotemporal water change trends in Urmia Lake through 2030. Three space–time cube-based models were applied. The forest-based forecast model, with a mean of 0.14 forecast root mean square error (RMSE) and 0.39 validation RMSE, had a better performance. According to the model's results, the peripheral parts of the lake will mainly stay completely arid with a 42.5% extension in the entire period, 21.7% in spring, and a 27% reduction in winter. In the middle parts, the aridity will increase by 121% in summer, 93% in fall, and 38% in spring. Eventually, the centric areas will not be completely arid; however, the water patterns' extent will decrease by 53.46% in fall, 34.6% in spring, and 28.5% in summer. Additionally, southern, eastern, western, and northern areas will experience drier conditions, respectively. The findings can be used for water resource management and water restoration plans for the lake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dunaliella sp. is a unicellular microorganism recognized for its ability to tolerate high salinity levels. It is a valuable source of natural pigments, lipids, and proteins and is of significant interest to various industries, including food, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and aquaculture. The study aimed to analysis of growth patterns and biochemical compositions throughout various seasons. For this reason, Dunaliella sp. ABRIINW-I1 was cultured in water samples collected from Lake Urmia during the winter, spring, summer, and autumn seasons of 2021. The salinity of the water samples was mainted at 1.5 M through diluting with demi-water and cultivating of the algae was performed at pH 7.8, with a light intensity 200 µmol photon m-1 s-1 at 28 °C in a 2L photobioreactor. The microalgae achieved a stable growth phase after an average of 10 days. Biomass production, along with protein content, chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b, and beta-carotene werequantified using spectrophotometric analysis. To assess the fatty acid composition, gas chromatography was performed on the extracted lipids utilizing the fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) profiling method. The physicochemical properties were evaluated following the guidelines established by the American Public Health Association (APHA). The findings indicate that the winter season exhibited the highest levels of protein content (50.3 %) and pigment concentration (2.88% DW), predominantly consisting of chlorophyll a, compared to the other seasons, with a significant difference. Conversly, lipid levels did not exhibit any significant variations among the different seasons. Furthermore, the ANOVA results revealed a notable difference in the data set of saturated fatty acids (SFA), polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), Omega-6 fatty acids, and the ratio of unsaturated fatty acids (UFA). These findings emphasize the nutritional potential of the ABRIINW-I1 strain, particularly when cultivated during the colder months. The consistent cultivation conditions in the laboratory, along with the composition of key cations, anions, and the microbiome, likely played a significant role in shaping these outcomes. This research also demonstrates the feasibility of large-scale cultivation of Dunaliella microalgae in proximity to Lake Urmia. Furthermore, principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that the growth and nutritional characteristics were influenced by the ionic composition of the lake water under controlled laboratory conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pollution and geo-accumulation of heavy metals in soil and agricultural products owing to human activities and natural factors pose significant environmental issues generating severe risks to human health and food security. To address these concerns, the concentrations of heavy metals, including As, Sb, Cu, Mo, Pb, and Zn, were measured using 20randomly collected soil samples taken from depths of 0--30 cm in the eastern agricultural area of eastern Urmia. After preparation, the total concentrations of these elements in the soil samples were extracted using hydrochloric and nitric acids and then measured using ICP-OES. The results indicated that the mean concentrations of total As, Sb, Cu, Mo, Pb, and Zn in the study area were 7.04, 1.02, 21.57, 0.357, 7.60, and 57.19 mg/kg, respectively. These concentrations were lower than the limits set by the Iranian Environmental Protection Agency. The mean pollution factor and enrichment coefficient in the region were the highest for As, followed by Sb, Zn, Pb, Cu, and Mo. The average infection index was 13.46, which indicated a moderate degree of soil contamination. The Earth Repletion Index for Cu and Mo was between 0 and 1, suggesting a natural origin, whereas for As, Cu, Pb, and Mo it was greater than 5, indicating high pollution levels. Based on the Pearson coefficient, there was a high correlation between Pb, Sb, Cu, and Zn, suggesting a common origin or similar geochemical behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air pollution as a result of desertification and dust transportation is one of the critical environmental challenges in the arid and semi-arid regions. Urmia Lake, the largest inland lake of Iran has lost most of its water over the past 2 decades. The lake bed is known as one of the aerosol pollution sources in the northwestern Iran. Although recent studies contributed to investigate the impacts of the drying up of Urmia Lake on the local and regional air quality, there is still a need to identify spatiotemporal aerosol pollution and dust generation sources in the study area. In this study, remote sensing techniques, fuzzy logic and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were used to identify dust hot spots in the south and east parts of the Lake, where recent studies have highlighted the dramatic extent of salinization and desertification. Based on the results of this study, the lake's contribution to the local aerosol pollution declines with increasing distance from it. The results indicated that the potential of dust forming on the east side of the lake has increased, presenting a variety of challenges for inhabitants, including health and biological hazards. The fuzzy results have a high correlation with Electrical Conductivity (EC) (0.69), Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) (0.46), and Leaf Area Index (0.45), respectively, while wind speed (0.22) and slope (0.24) have the lower correlation. The results of PCA indicate that AOD, Digital Elevation Model, and EC have the highest percentage in identifying dust generation sources among the effective parameters in determining dust production sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to measure telomere length in healthy children living next to Urmia Lake, Iran, which is exposed to salt dust from a drying lakebed. In this case-control pilot study, we recruited 39 sex- and age-matched healthy children from two different geographic regions to study the relative telomere lengths using qPCR. We categorized the study samples into high-impact and low-impact areas based on wind direction, aerosol particle level, and distance from the lake. Our main results revealed that children living in high-impact areas have shorter telomeres than those living in low-impact areas. Furthermore, according to our statistical model, parental age significantly affected telomere length in children, but inversely. When the father’s age impact was positive, the mother had a negative effect. Based on our results, to prevent Urmia Lake from dying out completely, national and international organizations should implement comprehensive visions and strategies for its restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The critical role of groundwater in meeting diverse needs, including drinking, industrial, and agricultural, highlights the urgency of effective resource management. Excessive groundwater extraction, especially in coastal regions including Urmia Plain in NW Iran, disrupts the equilibrium between freshwater and saline boundaries within aquifers. Influential parameters governing seawater intrusion—groundwater occurrence (G), aquifer hydraulic conductivity (A), the height of groundwater level above the mean sea level (L), distance from the shore (D), impact of the existing status of seawater intrusion (I), and thickness of the saturated aquifer (T)—merge to shape the GALDIT vulnerability index for coastal aquifers. This study enriches the GALDIT framework by incorporating two additional hydrogeological variables: hydraulic gradient (i) and pumping rate (P). This expansion produces seven distinct vulnerability maps (GALDIT, GAiDIT, GAiDIT-P, GALDIT-i, GALDIT-iP, GALDIT-P, GAPDIT). In the Urmia Plain, the traditional GALDIT index reveals vulnerability values ranging from 2 to 8.1, categorized into six classes from negligible to very high vulnerability. However, the modified indices, GAiDIT and GAiDIT-P, yield a three-class categorization, ranging from low to high vulnerability. The introduction of the "i" and "P" parameters in GALDIT-i and GALDIT-iP enhances the precision of vulnerability mapping, altering class distribution and intensifying vulnerability ratings. The eastern, central, and coastal areas of the Urmia Plain demonstrate high to very high vulnerability levels, in contrast to the lower vulnerability observed in the western regions. Both the GALDIT-P (r = 0.82) and GALDIT-iP (r = 0.81) indices show strong correlations with Cl concentration, thereby improving mapping accuracy over the traditional GALDIT index (r = 0.72). A sensitivity analysis highlights the critical influence of the "i" parameter, suggesting its weighting should be revised. Parameter recalibration serves to amplify the significance of "G," "L," "D," and "i" parameters, while diminishing others. The integration of multiple hydrogeological variables considerably enhances the precision of groundwater vulnerability assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, dried lake beds constitute the largest source of saline dust storms, with serious environmental and health issues in the surrounding areas. In this study, we examined the spatial–temporal distribution of monthly and annual dust events of varying intensity (dust in suspension, blowing dust, dust storms) in the vicinity of the desiccated Urmia Lake in northwestern (NW) Iran, based on horizontal visibility data during 2009–2022. Dust in suspension, blowing dust and dust storm events exhibited different monthly patterns, with higher frequencies between March and October, especially in the southern and eastern parts of the Urmia Basin. Furthermore, the intra-annual variations in aerosol optical depth at 500 nm (AOD550) and Ångström exponent at 412/470 nm (AE) were investigated using Terra/Aqua MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data over the Urmia Lake Basin (36–39°N, 44–47°E). Monthly distributions of potential coarse aerosol (AE < 1) sources affecting the lower troposphere over the Urmia Basin were reconstructed, synergizing Terra/Aqua MODIS AOD550 for AE < 1 values and HYSPLIT_4 backward trajectories. The reconstructed monthly patterns of the potential sources were compared with the monthly spatial distribution of Terra MODIS AOD550 in the Middle East and Central Asia (20–70°E, 20–50°N). The results showed that deserts in the Middle East and the Aral–Caspian arid region (ACAR) mostly contribute to dust aerosol load over the Urmia Lake region, exhibiting higher frequency in spring and early summer. Local dust sources from dried lake beds further contribute to the dust AOD, especially in the western part of the Urmia Basin during March and April. The modeling (DREAM8-NMME-MACC) results revealed high concentrations of near-surface dust concentrations, which may have health effects on the local population, while distant sources from the Middle East are the main controlling factors to aerosol loading over the Urmia Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, following the drying up of Lake Urmia, new centers for wind erosion activity have been formed in the northwest of the country, and these centers have become the source of dangerous dust production. In the southeastern part of Lake Urmia, the formation of wind erosion centers can lead to irreparable damages from the point of view of nature and human health. In this study, in order to identify wind erosion centers, changes in the water level of Lake Urmia based on the fluctuation pattern of climatic parameters using data The long-term effects of the existing stations in the Urmia Lake watershed were investigated. In order to identify the origin areas of fine walnut production and track dust storms in the studied area, horizontal visibility data below 1000 meters of meteorological data and Lagrangian HYSPLIT model in retrograde mode were used at different stations and at different levels of the atmosphere. It was used regularly and also the highest amount of dust containing 26 pressure tsars (100-1000 hectopascals) and available with a time step of 12 hours. At the same time as the first dust entered the study area, the wind direction was investigated for 24 hours before that. In the studied area (Banab and Malekan cities), the focus of wind erosion was investigated using AOD data from MACC database with a spatial accuracy of 0.125 × 0.125 geographic degrees and a daily time scale. In this study, MODIS Terra and Aqua satellites with a wavelength of 550 nm were used to generate AOD data. Day-by-day review of MODIS satellite images and the implementation of the fine dust characterization index revealed the occurrence of specific dust storms over Urmia Lake and southeast of the lake on different days. Investigations showed that extensive salt dust spreads in all parts of Lake Urmia, including the southeast of the lake in the limits of Bonab city, and the dust in this part is spread in the bed of atmospheric currents to the east and southeast for a distance of more than 140 km. In the northeast direction, they spread over 150 km in 12 hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the scarcity of water resources and the ever-growing demand, effective water flow management becomes crucial. The Lake Urmia Basin, a critical region in Iran, faces severe water scarcity exacerbated by climatic changes, land use alterations, over-extraction of groundwater, and mismanagement. This study evaluates the water resource balance by integrating carrying capacity and water footprint models to assess sustainable water management practices. Utilizing the InVEST model, water provisioning ecosystem services have been estimated as the supply, while the ecological footprint method quantifies water demand across various sectors. Three scenarios are evaluated: continuation of the current situation, an ideal scenario with substantial reductions in water consumption and pollution, and implementation of operational programs. The findings reveal significant water deficits in certain sub-basins, highlighting the need for a fundamental revision of resource allocation based on each region’s ecological capacity. Lake Urmia, the central nucleus of the basin, has experienced a significant size reduction, approximately 10 % of its original size, from the early 1990s to 2018, due to climatic changes, land use alterations, over-extraction of groundwater, and mismanagement. The environmental deficit in some sub-basins raises serious concerns, even in the best scenario where ecological footprint reduction is considered. These results underscore the effectiveness of ecosystem-based comprehensive capacity analysis for sustainable watershed development. This research offers a unified spatial system for quantifying ecological footprints and land resilience, providing critical insights into addressing water scarcity and supporting holistic regional planning.

The water level and surface area of Urmia Lake, located in the northwest of Iran, has decreased dramatically, presenting significant challenges for hydrological modeling due to complex interactions between surface and groundwater. In this study, the impact of agricultural activities on streamflow within one of the largest sub-basins of Urmia Lake is assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for hydrological assessments. To have accurate assessments, land use change detections were considered by a novel method, which merges the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to create a two-band NDVI-DEM image, effectively differentiating between agricultural and rangeland fields. Our findings reveal that agricultural development and irrigation, escalating between 1977 and 2015, resulted in increased annual evapotranspiration (ET) (ranging from 295 mm to 308 mm) and a decrease in yearly streamflow, from 317 million cubic meters to 300 million cubic meters. Overall, our study highlights the significant role that agricultural development and irrigation may play in contributing to the shrinking of Lake Urmia, underscoring the need for improved regional water management strategies to address these challenges, though further analysis across additional basins would be necessary for broader conclusions.

A 25 m long sediment core from hypersaline Urmia Lake (north‐west Iran) was studied for the Late Quaternary depositional history and palaeoclimate variations using the abundance and compositional characteristics of Artemia faecal pellets. Sediment analysis is supported by scanning electron microscopy – energy dispersive X‐ray spectroscopy, organic and inorganic carbon content measurements, and stable isotopes (δ13C and δ18O) from faecal pellet carbonates. The imprecise chronology of the core back to 50 kyr bp is supported by ten radiocarbon ages from faecal pellets and bulk sediments. The palaeoenvironmental record is subdivided into four periods: (i) During much of Marine Isotope Stage 3, a period of lake level lowering is characterized by a decreasing amount of faecal pellets, and an increasing amount of coated grains, sulphate minerals and reworked shell fragments. (ii) During late Marine Isotope Stage 3 and early Marine Isotope Stage 2 a lake level lowstand and a lake floor exposure is interpreted based on the relatively low abundance of pellets, which are multicoloured and appear together with volcanic lithics and rounded sulphate minerals. (iii) During late Marine Isotope Stage 2 the record is devoid of pellets but dominated by large sulphate crystals suggesting a prolonged low lake level. (iv) During Marine Isotope Stage 1 a relative lake level highstand is rapidly established with sediments that are highly abundant in fresh pellets. The modern lake level lowstand is represented by a salt crust. The δ13C and δ18O records measured from faecal pellet carbonates suggest a link with the precipitation versus evaporation balance in the lake over time. From bottom to top the linear trend towards more negative delta values illustrates the increasing amount of precipitation arriving at the lake from the Late Pleistocene to the Holocene. Two prominent isotope minima during the Late Pleistocene and one prominent minimum in the early Holocene mark relative high lake levels, which can also be linked to Lake Van in Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land degradation caused by accelerated soil erosion is a significant issue, particularly in arid or semi-arid regions, such as Urmia Lake in northwest Iran, where rainfall and wind erosion are major contributors. Microbially induced CaCO3 precipitation using indigenous ureolytic calcifying bacteria is a promising nature-inspired technique for mitigating soil erosion. In this study, several strains of indigenous bacteria were isolated and screened for urease activity and CaCO3 precipitation ability. The strain with the highest activity was selected for crust formation, and different treatment cycles and cementation solution concentrations were employed for specimen preparation. The results show that even specimens with only three cycles of treatment provided considerable protection against rainfall and wind erosion by reducing the erosion rate by over 50% and five times of magnitude, respectively. The specimen treated with seven cycles of cementation solution at a concentration of 1 M produced the thickest and strongest crusts. This study highlights the potential of using native bacteria for treatment as an effective method for controlling soil erosion in arid or semi-arid regions. The findings could be valuable for researchers and engineers involved in erosion control and soil stabilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Objectives: Due to limitations in renewable freshwater resources, proper management of resources and demands is one of the key factors for achieving sustainable management. This is a critical factor in achieving sustainable water management. This study aims to investigate the impact of government contractionary policies on the reduction of surface and groundwater rights in the Miandoab plain and quantitatively examining their impacts on groundwater resources. Materials and Methods: The quantitative modeling of groundwater in the Miandoab plain utilized data from 120 observation wells. Geological, soil layer, and recharge layers pertinent to the region were collected. Groundwater level changes from October 2010 to September 2016 were modeled and analyzed in both stable and unstable transient states using the MODFLOW code. The model calibration stages were performed based on adjusting the hydrodynamic parameters of the aquifer, such as hydraulic conductivity and recharge, for 50 time steps from November 2010 (70% of the modeling period). The best fit between computational and observational values was achieved both manually and automatically. 30% of the data was used for model validation. The model's sensitivity to the aquifer's hydrodynamic coefficients was examined. Finally, various scenarios related to water allocation reduction policies of the region and their effects on groundwater behavior, such as reducing extraction and recharge by decreasing surface water entering the plain, were quantified. Results: The results demonstrated that the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was approximately 1 and 1.68 meters for the stable and unstable (transient) states, respectively. The hydraulic conductivity values within the aquifer ranged between 3.5 and 28 meters per day, and the specific yield values varied between 3 to 24 percent. The model exhibited the highest sensitivity to surface recharge and the least sensitivity to specific yield. The Pearson coefficient for the calibration and validation period of the unstable state exceeded 0.98, indicating a high degree of model accuracy. All effects of the government's contractionary policies on reducing 40% of surface water and balancing the aquifer with the levels of natural aquifer recharge were implemented. Given that the average drop in groundwater level is approximately 0.1 meters per year, a scenario of reducing extraction from all operating wells has been applied to balance the aquifer. With a 5% reduction in extraction, the aquifer is projected to experience a half-meter increase in the static level. The Miandoab aquifer, due to the low slope of the plain, is sensitive and shows a part of the plain as a water ponding in reducing extraction at a high rate, hence any policymaking should be based on modeling. Conclusion: To improve the conditions of the Miandoab aquifer, one of the country's most unique aquifers, suggestions have been made for changes in the cultivation pattern of agricultural products, monitoring of water extraction from operating wells, and examination of the impact of climate change and drought on groundwater resources in terms of quantity and quality. Various scenarios, including optimization and change of cultivation pattern, as well as the construction of drainage in areas where evaporation from the aquifer is high, should be evaluated to improve the aquifer situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In addition to natural disasters such as floods, which cause great damage to the environment and human societies, the phenomenon of dust also causes irreparable damage to urban environments, transportation systems, respiratory systems, etc. Identifying Potential Dust Source Areas is considered the first step to control and prevent this phenomenon. Various researches have been conducted to identify dust sources, but most studies have relied on small-scale images. This research aims to use medium-scale satellite images to identify local areas prone to dust production. Google Earth Engine was used to analyze factors influencing dust generation, including slope, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), land use, soil salinity, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), soil moisture, wind speed, precipitation, and Land Surface Temperature (LST). Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to assign weights to these elements. The resulting weights were: soil moisture (0.264), NDVI (0.208), wind speed (0.153), precipitation (0.107), land use/soil salinity (0.081), LST (0.064), DEM (0.024), and slope (0.020). The inconsistency index (0.015) indicated a high degree of consistency between the assigned weights, which is below the acceptable threshold (1). Due to the lack of ground-based air quality measurements, the Aerosol Optical Depth product (a satellite-derived measurement of airborne particles) was used to validate the resulting dust source maps. The final map showed that the potential for dust generation decreased closer to the heights of Sahand and increased closer to the lake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a process that is considered as a part of arid and semi-arid climatic regions' characteristics. In recent years, droughts have occurred with more severity and frequency in most regions of the world (Spinoni et al. in Int J Climatol 34(8):2792-2804, 2014). Also, drought monitoring systems can be considered as appropriate tools for drought crisis and risk management in the studied regions. In the present study, the drought condition in the Zarrine Rud basin in Iran was studied by the aggregated drought index (ADI) and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model for the period of 21 years (1987–2008). In the first step, due to the unavailability of observational data on soil moisture and potential evapotranspiration variables, the SWAT model was developed based on the model presented by Ahmadzadeh (2012). Furthermore, the ADI values for each month were evaluated based on the principal components analysis (PCA) method, namely using monthly data on rainfall, soil moisture, potential evapotranspiration, reservoir storage volume, and river flow. Then, the time series of ADI values were employed for drought monitoring in this basin and compared to the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for the historical drought of 1998 to 2001. The results confirmed that the ADI was more transparent and appropriate to describe the severity and duration of the drought. Also, it could be recommended to monitor the drought in this basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urmia Lake has been suffered from continuous water withdrawal for more than 2 decades. It is the largest habitat of a unique brine shrimp species, Artemia urmiana, first reported by Gϋnther. This study was performed to determine if harsh environmental conditions has eliminated the A. urmiana from the lake. Six sampling sites were selected in northern and southern parts of the lake. Two stations were not accessible through the sampling campaign due to drastic water withdrawal and marshy path. Samplings were performed monthly from March 2022 to February 2023. Electeric Conductivity (EC) and Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) were determined by EC-meter WTW model LF 320 and multi-meter WTW model 3410, respectively. The water salinity was measured by refracto-meter ATAGO (Japan) model S-28E. Water level, surface area and volume were extracted from East Azarbaijan water resources management company web site. The brine shrimp samples were collected by pulling a net (25×100cm - 100 μ mesh size) in definite distance. The Artemia samples were studied under stereomicroscope Nikon. In this study, we did not observe any types of Artemia biomass (Nauplii, Meta-nauplii, young and adult Artemia). Only Artemia cysts was observed in Lake Urmia. In summer and autumn (dry season) cyst density were 0.00216 ± 0.0017 No/l and zero, respectively, whereas in spring and winter (wet season) were 0.364 ± 0.259 and 0.149 ± 0.084 No/l. In general, the results of this study show that the surface area, volume and level of the lake had the highest effects on the cyst density.

The present study aims to assess the spatial distribution of heavy metals in sediment of the western bed of Urmia Lake and around Soil by using pollution Indicators. For this aim, Twenty soil and surface sediment samples (0-20 cm) were collected, and metals concentration was determined by Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectroscopy. The average total concentration of nickel, manganese, cadmium, chromium, boron, and bismuth are 19.97, 163.56, 0.39, 14.68, 68.38, and 0.76 mg kg-1 respectively. The Geo accumulation Index for nickel, manganese, chromium, cadmium, and boron are in the non-polluted category and bismuth is in the non-polluted category for moderate pollution. Investigation of the enrichment factor shows that the manganese is moderate to severe; nickel, chromium, and boron are severe, and cadmium and bismuth, are at an enormous enrichment level. Calculation of Contamination Factors in the region indicates that cadmium, boron, and bismuth are in the middle pollution category. The result of Pearson correlation coefficient analysis shows that the calcium carbonate content of the soil with all metals has a negative correlation, and would reduce mobility and decrease the pollution of metals. The results of this study indicate that the total concentration of the boron in the sediments of the Urmia lake bed is significantly higher than the average of the crust. Also, cadmium concentration in agricultural land is higher than the average in the earth's crust, and controlling actions should be implemented to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers as a factor in increasing the concentration of cadmium.

IntroductionAs a result of droughts and human interventions, the Urmia Lake basin has faced increasing unallowable withdrawal of water resources and environmental requirements share. Over the past two decades, a series of natural and human factors have gradually changed the water balance of Lake Urmia. In addition, decreases in precipitation have been the main reason for the gap between water resources and increasing water consumption in the basin, especially in the agricultural sector. In order to deal with the Urmia Lake catastrophe, a working group was formed for the Urmia Lake restoration. The working group planned and proposed solutions to reach the ecological level of the lake in three stages within 10 years through in-basin water supply and inter-basin water transfer programs. The present research, while investigating the solutions for providing the environmental water requirement of Lake Urmia using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, changes in the water volume of Lake Urmia in the scenarios of water transfer from the surface flow of each entering river in the lake in the years of high intensity severe to mild drought, the implementation of the approvals of the national working group to restore Urmia Lake, including a 40% reduction in agricultural consumption from the sources of dams and other rivers without dams, releasing water from dams in non-agricultural seasons, transferring water from urban wastewater and finally transferring water between the Zab basin has quantitatively been evaluated using the MODSIM simulation model. This research will help to predict the amount of transferable water in drought, normal, and drought conditions and to plan the water accounting of the Urmia catchment. Materials and MethodsThe watershed of Lake Urmia, located in the northwest of Iran, with an area of 51,876 square kilometers, is one of the six main watersheds of the country, which is located between the provinces of West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan, and Kurdistan. In terms of its territorial location, the catchment area of the Zab Kochak river is in the western part of the international border with Iraq and in the catchment area of the Western Border River basin. A significant part of the Zab watershed (source of water transfer) is located outside the country and in Iraq. The route of water transfer between the basins of the Zab basin is from the place of two dams, Silweh and Kaniseeb, which after entering the Godarchai river will eventually enter the Urmia lake water body. The different solutions from the working group’s approval have been selected for developing six scenarios. Then, the Scenarios have been evaluated by the MODSIM model and AHP analysis method. The scenarios are including reducing agricultural expenses from dams in operation, saving by reducing agricultural expenses from other rivers, transferring water between basins, transferring effluent to Lake Urmia, releasing water from dams in operation to Lake Urmia. A hierarchical structure was developed with the aim of evaluating solutions to save Lake Urmia through internal sources and transfer water sources. In this structure, there are four criteria of climate, consumption, economic-social, and environmental status. Sub-criteria of drought, surface water extraction from rivers, extraction from dam sources, extraction from groundwater resources, development of agricultural lands, and ensuring the sustainability of river flow. and providing solutions for inter-basin water transfer, a 40% reduction of agricultural water consumption from surface water sources of rivers and dams, wastewater transfer, and a 40% reduction of agricultural water consumption from underground water sources in Expert Choice software, were analyzed. Results and DiscussionIn order to evaluate the effectiveness of the defined scenarios, the simulation model was implemented for future conditions during the next 10 or 15 water years for different scenarios. The results show that the implementation of scenarios 4 and 6, will bring the largest increase in the volume of lake water, of course, with the occurrence of precipitation and proper input. Regarding the results of scenario 1 and the sameness of its results in two periods of 10 and 15 years, it can be stated because in the definition of the scenario, it is a dry year and the amount of evaporation of the lake water is more than the amount of input into the lake. There has been no increase in the lake's water volume for several consecutive years. Also, the results show that in wet and dry years, if the maximum transfer flow scenario is implemented, we will not have a flow from the Zab river to the downstream side, and it will not be accepted from the hydrodiplomacy point of view for the neighboring country in terms of influencing the use of the Dukan dam. Therefore, water diplomacy solutions are needed to reduce environmental threats. Therefore, the issue of transferring water from the Zab basin to Lake Urmia cannot be considered guaranteed in the long term due to the impossibility of reducing the outflow of water from the country to zero. ConclusionIn conclusion, in order to evaluate all scenarios to satisfy the environmental needs of Lake Urmia shows that the protection of the lake requires correcting the mistakes of the path traveled in the current and past years, and preferably with a 40% reduction in agricultural consumption from dams and other rivers, groundwater in the basin is the main supplier of Urmia Lake. Inter-basin water transfer is the next priority because the source catchment is able to transfer water in the face of droughts due to the reduction of runoff and related challenges as well as its negative economic and social effects. It will not be as much as predicted and included in the program (600 million cubic meters per year). In addition to that, water diplomacy is necessary in terms of impacting downstream transboundary uses and reducing environmental threats. The results of this research and the high costs of water supply requirements, in parallel with the investigation of controversial options and costs of inter-basin water transfer projects, macro-management of water resources towards demand and consumption management and water saving programs and the modification of water consumption patterns and the legality of the behavior of water users from within the catchment area of Lake Urmia should be low-cost, sustainable and reliable solutions.

Background and Objectives Urmia Lake is the largest saltwater in the Middle East, which has been located in the northwest of Iran. Nowadays, various factors have exposed it to dryness and wind erosion, the result of which is the increase in soil salinity, the thinning of solute crystals, and the occurrence of dust storms. Identifying the nature of these dusts specially the mineralogy of them is important in providing solutions to deal with the crisis. Investigating the characteristics and mineralogy of dusts in the region are useful in predicting and controlling ways to reduce their damages, and dust mineralogy is a practical method to determine their origin. In other words, the deposition of dust in different areas can affect the nearby ecosystems by making changes in the texture, composition of elements and even the acidity of the soils of the affected areas. The source of dust is very important in the mineralogy of sedimentary particles and depends on various factors such as geology and soil characteristics as well as climatic conditions. Also, the height of atmosphere which the dusts are there, can be useful in studying the effect of mineralogy in this height. Methodology For this purpose, three flat sites without vegetation and prone to fine dust production were selected from the eastern shore of Urmia Lake, and each site was divided into 3 layers based on the height from sea level, but the first layer was omitted from the studying areas because of the high soil moisture due to low distance to lake, which results in decreasing dust production by this layer, and eventually 2 random samples (0-5 cm) were picked up from each layer. This research work carried out based on 12 selected soil samples from 3 sites and their layers. The soil samples from 0 to 5 cm depth as a surface soil of layers were transferred to trays with dimensions of 3 x 40 x 30 cm in the wind tunnel of agriculture faculty of Tabriz University, with 370cm length, 50cm width and 70cm height, and wind erosion was simulated by applying the maximum wind speed of 45 meters per second to it was done for 15 minutes at each height. Then, the dust particles released at 2 heights of the wind tunnel (10 and 30 cm from the floor of the device) and the control soil sample were subjected to XRD analysis and the obtained diffractions were interpreted using High Score software. Finally, statistical analysis was performed using a nested design to find the effect of factors such as the location, layer and height of the wind tunnel on the content of minerals in windblown dust. Findings The obtained results showed that the dominant minerals in the most dust samples, were quartz, calcite, halite and gypsum with the highest average percent of quartz, because of the widespread occurrences of this mineral in the earth crust. The statistical analysis results revealed the significant effect of layer on quartz at the p<0.01 level, but the effect of site on calcite was significant at the p<0.05 level and the maximum amount of quartz appeared in layer 2 of site 2, while its minimum amount has observed in layer 2 of site 1. The maximum and minimum amount of calcite was found in site 2 and 3 respectively, but predominance of quartz in the dust samples can be attributed to the wind blow within a short distance. Also, the differences can be related to the nature of the parent materials of sites from which soils were derived. Conclusion In general, the presence of calcite as the main mineral in samples is due to study area temperature and precipitation increase and decrease respectively, which cause lake dryness, while gypsum and halite are produced in result of chemical equilibrium process and distribute in salty soils. Gypsum also can be produced during the reaction of calcite and sulfates of sea salts. The dryness of the lake also results in rising the gypsum minerals from dried floor of Lake and the presence of halite is affected by Urmia Lake salts that remain after water evaporation in dried land as a main mineral in soil and dust samples of affected lands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urmia Lake has endured continuous water withdrawals for over two decades, significantly impacting its ecosystem. This lake is renowned as the largest habitat for a unique brine shrimp species, Artemia urmiana, initially documented by Gϋnther. The primary objective of this study was to assess whether the adverse environmental conditions have led to the elimination of A. urmiana from the lake. Six sampling sites were strategically chosen, covering both the northern and southern regions of the lake. Unfortunately, two stations were inaccessible during the sampling campaign due to severe water withdrawal and marshy paths. Sampling activities were conducted monthly from March 2022 to February 2023. The parameters of Electrical Conductivity (EC) and Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) were measured using an EC-meter (WTW model LF 320) and a multi-meter (WTW model 3410), respectively. Water salinity was determined through a refractometer (ATAGO, Japan, model S-28E). Essential data, including water level, surface area, and volume, were extracted from the East Azarbaijan water resources management company's website. Brine shrimp samples were collected using a net (25×100cm - 100 μ mesh size) at specific distances. The Artemia samples underwent detailed examination under a Nikon stereomicroscope. Surprisingly, no observable Artemia biomass (Nauplii, Meta-nauplii, young and adult Artemia) was noted in this study. Only Artemia cysts were observed in Lake Urmia. During the dry season in summer and autumn, cyst density was minimal, recording 0.00216 ± 0.0017 No/l and zero, respectively. In contrast, during the wet season in spring and winter, cyst density increased, measuring 0.364 ± 0.259 and 0.149 ± 0.084 No/l, respectively. In summary, the findings of this study highlight that the surface area, volume, and level of the lake exert significant influences on cyst density, revealing a notable impact of environmental factors on the Artemia population in Lake Urmia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the spatial distribution of heavy metals in the sediment of the western bed of Urmia Lake and its adjacent soil, utilizing pollution indicators. To achieve this goal, we collected twenty samples of soil and surface sediment from depths of 0-20 cm and determined the concentration of heavy metals through Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectroscopy (ICP-OES). The average total concentrations of nickel, manganese, cadmium, chromium, boron, and bismuth were found to be 19.97, 163.56, 0.39, 14.68, 68.38, and 0.76 mg kg-1, respectively. The Geo-accumulation index categorizes nickel, manganese, chromium, cadmium, and boron as non-polluted, while bismuth falls into the moderate pollution category. Enrichment factor analysis reveals moderate to severe levels for manganese, severe levels for nickel, chromium, and boron, and enormous enrichment levels for cadmium and bismuth. Calculation of Contamination Factors in the region indicates that cadmium, boron, and bismuth fall into the middle pollution category. The Pearson correlation coefficient analysis demonstrates a negative correlation between the calcium carbonate content of the soil and all metals, suggesting that higher calcium carbonate content reduces mobility and diminishes heavy metal pollution. The study's findings highlight a significantly elevated total concentration of boron in the sediments of the Urmia Lake bed compared to the average crust. Additionally, the concentration of cadmium in agricultural land surpasses the earth's crust average, signaling the need for control measures to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers as a contributing factor to increased cadmium concentrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urmia Lake, with more than 51,000 Km² area, is one of 6 main Iran’s catchments. Nazluchai, Shaharchai, Bazandozchai, Gadarchi, Mahabadchai and Siminehroud located in west and southwest of Urmia Lake are among the most important rivers supplying the lake. This study aims to evaluate heavy metals health risk including cadmium, lead, nickel, cobalt, arsenic and chromium in surface sediments of western and southwestern rivers of Urmia Lake, for which 22 sediment samples from depth of 0-10 cm was randomly taken and after analyzing by ICP-OES method, non-carcinogenic risk for all studied elements and carcinogenic risk for elements with definite carcinogenicity (cadmium, nickel and chromium) were calculated. According to results, the highest concentrations of nickel, cobalt and chromium were recorded in Baranduzchai and Gadarchai, the highest arsenic concentration was recorded in delta and downstream of Nazluchai and Mahabadchai and the highest cadmium concentration was recorded in Nazluchai delta and downstream of Siminehrood. In mentioned cases, heavy metals concentration is much more than the other parts. Average daily doses of studied heavy metals for children and adults were measured as follows: cadmium

Urmia Lake in NW Iran was the world’s second largest hypersaline lake until three decades ago, when it began to lose ~ 90% of its surface area due to dwindling water input and enhanced evaporation. To help discern the role of natural vs anthropogenic factors in the rapid demise of Urmia Lake, we present a high-resolution, multi-proxy reconstruction of climate, and hydrological variability from the lake’s sediments. We identify several episodes of wet and dry conditions over the past 11,300 years, and an atmospheric teleconnection between the climate of the interior of West Asia and the North Atlantic region. Estimates of mean annual precipitation based on chemical weathering indices range between 174 and 401 mm year−1 during the Holocene. A combination of geochemical proxies, pollen reconstruction, and the absence of any evaporite horizons throughout the Holocene period point to the prevailing role of human impact on the current vanishing of Urmia Lake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Growing agricultural and domestic demand exacerbates water shortages globally, creating substantial environmental challenges, especially in lakes and wetlands ecosystems. This paper presents a stationary policy to restore and sustain the water level in natural lakes using a new version of hedging rule that accounts for time-dependent environmental demand and the water allocation to the agricultural and municipal sectors under different climate change projections. The proposed framework is demonstrated via operational policy derived to rehabilitate Lake Urmia in Iran. To simplify the modeling process, all reservoirs in the basin are replaced with an equivalent reservoir (ER) to allocate the available water between potential users. The ER is then operated using the set of hedging rules derived for staged restoration and sustainability of the lake level while meeting other stakeholder objectives. A system dynamics-based model is used to simulate the multi-sectoral system of the basin while using a built-in optimization algorithm to develop the most desirable multi-period operational policy. The lake-level condition is investigated by producing lake-level duration curves, while the reservoir performance indices (reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability) are used for assessing water supply in the basin. The results indicate that the proposed framework is highly effective in restoring lake level while meeting agricultural and municipal water demand in the basin. The proposed model provides a stationary policy for the lake restoration accounting for the dynamic variation of the lake level and fluctuations of the reservoirs inflow due to climate variability and change.

Prediction of streamflow is a crucial tool in planning and managing water resources and preventing floods. Due to the recent drought in Urmia Lake, predicting streamflow has become necessary for its rehabilitation. Therefore, selecting the best-optimized model for research is of particular importance. In this study, we modeled and predicted the inlet flow of Urmia Lake from 2019 to 2049, using the inlet flow statistics of ten stations from 1989 to 2019. The two employed software packages demonstrated good correlation with values ranging between 0.7 and 0.92. The neural network method outperformed R software by predicting the future with less MSE error. Unlike R software, the neural network considers the future prediction variable in addition to observational streamflow, making it possible to examine the possibility of flood in case of noticeable increase or decrease in the stations and account for uncertainties such as climate change. The Tapik station showed the highest correlation rate of 0.86 in R software, while Bandeurmiye station had the highest correlation of 0.92 in the neural network, which was performed by selected predictor variables under RCP 2.6 scenario. The neural network forecasting graph results indicate an increasing trend of streamflow in Tapik, Babarood, and Mako stations located in the northwest of the basin in the next 30 years. Babarood station is expected to have the highest streamflow increase of about 15 cubic meters per second in 30 years.

As one of the largest super-saline lakes in the world, Lake Urmia in northwestern Iran has been facing severe drying in recent years. Drought and rapid expansion of agricultural activities are considered to be the main driving factors in the shrinking of the lake. To address this problem, an analysis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) is important. This research implemented a multi-source satellite image analysis through support vector machine (SVM) for mapping LULC distributions for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. Cellular automata (CA)–Markov was prepared for modeling the future landscape changes for 2030 and 2040. In the last step, the water requirement of agriculture in the catchment area of the Urmia Lake was simulated through the NETWAT model. Through the employed future LULC modeling, it was found that the areas covered by irrigated agriculture and gardens will grow from 1,450 and 395 km2 to 3,600 and 1,650 km2 in 2040, respectively, as deduced from the changes that occurred from 2000 to 2020. This will increase the water requirement of agriculture from 1.5 billion cubic metres in 2000 to more than 4.1 billion cubic metres in 2040. HIGHLIGHTS LULC modeling is implemented through a CA–Markov model to predict future LULC for 2030 and 2040.; The NETWAT model was used to simulate the water requirement of agriculture.; A significant increase in the areas covered by agricultural activities were identified.; A 200% increase in water requirement of agriculture was observed in the period of 40 years (2000–2040).;

Shrinkage of lakes is considered a serious ecological challenge. The impact of this phenomenon on the environment can be devastating. Monitoring the spatiotemporal variations of lake's water surface and its salinization is essential for planning and adopting mitigation measures. In this study, a new multiscale-kernel-based method was used to assess the spatiotemporal variations of the shrinkage of the Urmia Lake and develop soil salinity vulnerability map for its basin. For this aim, remote sensing, empirical wavelet transform (EWT), differential symbolic entropy (DSE), and Gaussian regression process (GPR) techniques were used. Vulnerable areas were identified using geo-environmental parameters extracted from the in situ observations and satellite datasets. In the next step, considering three time periods including the lake normal period, lake drying period, and lake restoration period, the variations in the quality of groundwater were investigated. Results showed that the east and south sections of the lake were more prone to severe salinization. Saline lands caused negative impacts on air quality and agricultural activities in these areas. It was found that both climate change and human activities had contributed to the shrinking of the lake. Results showed that the quality of groundwater in the area around the lake has been affected by the excessive salinity of the lake water and the encroachment process of saline water. The water quality index has increased during the drying period of the lake and caused negative effects on the quality of water used for drinking and agricultural activities. In the lake restoration period, a slight increase in water quality was observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quality of water resources used for drinking and their health effects is vitally important. The present study investigated the concentrations of F−, NO3−, and metal elements like Hg, Mn, As, and Pb in the groundwater resources and their health risk assessment on the west margin of Urmia Lake, Iran. Sampling points were selected and taken from 121 groundwater resources in the summer of 2014. Heavy metals (Pb, As, Mn, and Hg) were measured by ICP-OES (inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometer, model: Arcos, Germany), and some ions (Na+, NO3−, F−, and Cl−) by flame photometer and spectrophotometer according to the standard methods, respectively. The nitrate concentration range in groundwater samples measured from 1.7 to 137 mg/L and fluoride from 0.4 to 4.5 mg/L. The probabilistic method and Monte Carlo simulation were used to estimate carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risks. The concentration of study elements in most samples was obtained in the WHO (World Health Organization) recommended range. The order of HM (heavy metal) concentration is based on the overall mean: Mn > As > Hg > Pb. The HI (hazard index) level was found to be more than 1 for noncarcinogenic risk for As and NO3− and permissible risks for the other elements and fluoride. ELCR (excess lifetime cancer risk) levels of As were acceptable, except for some sampling points, the central region in the study area, near the seashore of Urmia Lake. Finally, it can be stated that the groundwater resources in the studied area are acceptable for drinking in most places. Still, due to the effects of As and NO3− contaminated water, the quality is unacceptable for drinking in some places. So, monitoring water quality is recommended by finding contamination sources to decrease the health risks of drinking consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes are natural water resources that are affected by different factors. The increase in soil salinity is one of the major issues created due to the drying up of a lake. In this study, a two-step methodology was used to assess drought vulnerability and salinity variation of the Urmia Lake basin. In this regard, firstly, a multi-criteria intelligence method based on empirical wavelet transform-long short-term memory, which integrated 15 geo-environmental variables extracted from the in-situ observations and satellite datasets, was used for developing drought vulnerability maps of the basin. In the next step, the salinization progress of the basin and its impacts on the environment were investigated using satellite datasets. Results showed that the Southern and Eastern sections of the lake were more prone to severe droughts. It was found that temperature and precipitation variations did not lead to significant shrinkage of the lake, but human activities along with climate changes caused the basin to dry up. The results showed that the biomass production in the basin is affected by salinity, and there is a negative correlation between the salinity index and the normalized difference vegetation index. Also, a positive correlation was found between land subsidence and the density of drilled wells in the basin. The rate of land subsidence varied between − 1.8 and − 8.4 mm/year. The quality of groundwater was investigated for the existing wells in the basin. Results showed that the excessive use of groundwater resources has affected the quality of water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the extreme shrinkage of Urmia Lake is investigated, aiming to assess the impact of anthropogenic factors, particularly the over-construction of dams and natural anomalies associated with climate change. Historically available multispectral spatial data obtained from Landsat missions 4-5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI were utilized which totally covers a period of 36 years (1967–2020). Additionally, this data was employed to identify the locations of constructed water reservoirs and determine their construction timelines by analyzing the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). To examine the temporal patterns of annual precipitation in the lake basin, we obtained time series data from historical precipitation records, which were then converted into rasterized format. Our findings indicate that approximately 22% of the lake basin has been designated for feeding dam reservoirs. The impact of precipitation anomalies on the lake’s water level was found to be relatively less significant when compared to the increased storage capacity of the dams. Furthermore, the construction of dams prior to 2000 contributed to enhancing the lake’s stability during periods of drought. However, the substantial increase in the total storage capacity of dams after 2000 has significantly accelerated the shrinkage process. As a result, it was concluded that any effective rescue plan should prioritize ignoring a considerable portion of the reservoirs’ storage capacity by releasing stored water, thereby allowing the lake to attain a stable condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water, food, and energy (WFE) systems are addressed with their complex interactions with each other. Some models are used to simulate WFE concept, but they cannot consider all nexus complexity. Based on author's knowledge, there is still a lack of suitable model that can consider relationships inner each WFE sub-systems and between them in nexus concept. The CWSNeX in this study is specifically tailored for a comprehensive water simulation under the WFE nexus system on a basin scale. It benefits from a modular structure and considers the most important interrelations in water sub-system for addressing the gaps and issues in a holistic WFE nexus simulation. CWSNeX is implemented using the Python programming language and can be utilized both within a WFE nexus platform and as a stand-alone tool with time series data. When integrated into a nexus platform, it interacts with the food and energy sub-systems, exchanging information and outputs in each time step. The CWSNeX consists of quantitative and qualitative parts. In the quantitative part, it simulates evaporation, river routing, groundwater, reservoir operation rule, surface water, and groundwater exchange, withdrawal in demand sites, and in the qualitative part, it simulates Total Dissolved Solid (TDS) that is important for irrigation sites. To evaluate the performance of the CWSNeX model, data from the Sufi Chay basin in Iran is used. The goodness of fit criterion (NS, RMSE, R2, d-factor and p-factor) showed a good performance of each module. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing agricultural and domestic demand exacerbates water shortages globally, creating substantial environmental challenges, especially in lakes and wetlands ecosystems. This paper presents a stationary policy to restore and sustain the water level in natural lakes using a new version of hedging rule that accounts for time-dependent environmental demand and the water allocation to the agricultural and municipal sectors under different climate change projections. The proposed framework is demonstrated via operational policy derived to rehabilitate Lake Urmia in Iran. To simplify the modeling process, all reservoirs in the basin are replaced with an equivalent reservoir (ER) to allocate the available water between potential users. The ER is then operated using the set of hedging rules derived for staged restoration and sustainability of the lake level while meeting other stakeholder objectives. A system dynamics-based model is used to simulate the multi-sectoral system of the basin while using a built-in optimization algorithm to develop the most desirable multi-period operational policy. The lake-level condition is investigated by producing lake-level duration curves, while the reservoir performance indices (reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability) are used for assessing water supply in the basin. The results indicate that the proposed framework is highly effective in restoring lake level while meeting agricultural and municipal water demand in the basin. The proposed model provides a stationary policy for the lake restoration accounting for the dynamic variation of the lake level and fluctuations of the reservoirs inflow due to climate variability and change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Water withdrawal and changes in hydrologic fluxes have lowered the level of Urmia Lake in Iran, adversely impacting its ecosystem. The continued lowering of the Urmia Lake water level would put Iran's most important aquatic ecosystem in danger of extinction. Therefore, there is an urgent need for management of water withdrawals and for reduction of water use in upstream dams and rivers to halt its continuing decline and allow storage recovery. The Urmia Lake basin was herein modelled with system dynamics (SD) to assess the effects of modifying reservoir operation and water use management on the sustainability of Urmia Lake storage. The model performance was evaluated with the root mean square error (RMSE) and the correlation coefficient (R2). The results show that SD with RMSE = 18.0 (106 m3) and R2 = 0.952 is accurate in simulating Urmia Lake storage. Evaluation of the impacts of several scenarios of agricultural water use on lake storage indicates that reductions in the agricultural sector appear inevitable to restore the water balance of Urmia Lake. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Urmia Lake is the largest lake in the Iranian plateau and the second largest Salt Lake in the world. This study was conducted to identify hypersaline bacteria in the lake through the screening with molecular markers. For the molecular study of the bacterial microbiome of the lake, samples were collected from water, sludge and soil of the different parts of the lake during different seasons of 2018 and 2019, and then transferred to the laboratory under standard conditions. Bacterial isolates were purified from the samples using universal culture media. ERIC molecular marker was used to study the species diversity. After clustering analysis of the species on the basis of their genetic markers, one bacterium from each cluster was selected as the representative of each cluster and then identified by DNA barcoding method using the 16srDNA. Biochemical tests were performed to confirm the molecular results. In total, 102 bacterial isolates were isolated and purified from the samples, of which only 29 isolates were extremely-halophilic. The molecular diversity of isolates, based on ERIC molecular marker, showed that isolates can be assigned to five different clusters. Five isolates selected from each cluster were selected and their 16SrDNA region were amplified and sequenced with 16SrDNA-specific primers. The results showed that the five selected isolates with 99% similarity belonged to the species Microbulbifer halophilus, Halomonas salina, Bacillus sonorensis, Salinivibrio costicola and Bacillus aquimaris. The results of molecular identification were consistent with the results of biochemical tests.

The present study aimed to develop a Public-Private Partnership framework for managing the Adverse Health Effects of Environmental Disasters using the drying lake Urmia case study in Iran. This is a qualitative study with grounded theoretical approach. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and analyzed using content analysis. To formulate the initial framework, an expert panel was formed. Delphi methodology was used to determine the validity of framework. The most critical infrastructure for private sector participation was designing a legal framework and providing adequate resources and facilities. Pollutant assessment and public education are among the essential areas in which the private sector can participate. To evaluate the performance of the private sector, periodic and short-term reports, and documentation should be used. Payments to the private sector should be for periodic objectives based on performance. Reimbursement should combine service fees, allocation per capita, and performance quality. One of the significant difficulties and challenges in the managing of AHEEDs is lack of resources, poor management and inter-departmental coordination. Policymakers can consider PPP as an effective policy for reducing the AHEEDs. To this end, the framework presented in this study can be used as a guide by national and local authorities and policymakers. HIGHLIGHTS Decades climate change have caused to different environmental disasters.; We conducted 20 semi-structured interviews with experts and came up with a proper insight on understanding different stakeholders in terms of private sector partnership management of adverse health effects of environmental disasters.;

Alburnoides petrubanarescui is endemic to the Urmia Lake basin, shared by Iran and Turkey. Previously, the species was found in several rivers in this basin, however, it is currently only found in the upper part of the Nazlu Chay River. The species' extent of occurrence (EOO), which was previously estimated to be 20.000 km2, is now 300 km2. Over the past three generations (10 years), the EOO of Urmia spirlin has decreased by 98%, however, the population of the Nazlu River is stable, and there is no strong evidence to suggest that the population will decline in the future. Drought and water abstraction cause the species' population to reduce. Dam building and river pollution reduce their range, making them vulnerable to extinction. Therefore, we classified the species as Vulnerable D2.

IntroductionAtmospheric conditions such as climate change, ocean temperatures, changes in the jet stream, and changes in the local landscape are all factors that contribute to drought. Drought not only threatens agriculture but also causes a series of ecological, social, and economic damages. Therefore, it is necessary to have valid and appropriate indicators that can evaluate and measure drought efficiently. Drought monitoring by meteorological and hydrological indicators has always been of interest to researchers. Decreasing or increasing precipitation has a direct effect on river flow rate and groundwater level.Materials and Methods Drought monitoring was performed for 10 meteorological stations and 10 hydrometric stations in the western basin area of Urmia with different distribution functions to identify the best distribution function for fitting data based on standardized precipitation index (SPI) as meteorological drought index and standardized streamflow index (SSI) as hydrological drought index. SPI and SSI values were measured with four cumulative functions, i.e., Gamma, Weibull, logarithmic normal, and Gaussian normal functions. Some performance criteria such as MAE were used to evaluate the efficiency of the functions. This research has been conducted on an annual scale for 31 years from 1989 to 2019. Drought continuity zoning was done through the Inverse distance weighting (IDW) method based on drought continuity.Results and Discussion The results of the SSI showed that the cumulative gamma function had the best performance for fitting data for nine stations. Only at the Merakand station, the Weibull cumulative distribution function provide a better fit for the data. Babarood station with 99% correlation and MSE of 0.017 had the best fit among other stations. In order to understand the drought conditions of the region, according to the selected indicators and based on positive values for wet conditions and negative values for drought conditions, the stations have been studied. Finally, a zoning map of drought continuity is presented.Conclusion The SSI and SPI indicators are directly related to each other. The SPI is better for predicting the onset of drought and the SSI is better for measuring the severity and persistence of drought. During the last three decades (1998-2000), Urmia basin has witnessed the highest severity of hydrological drought. Based on the zoning map of the northwest region, especially the upper Chihriq station, it has always enjoyed more favorable conditions and has experienced a milder drought than other regions. However, the extent of severe drought changed from the western part in 1998 to the eastern part in 2000. the severity of drought in 1998 was less than in 2000. In 2000, the drought intensity reached the highest value just in the Merakand station.

Introduction As a result of droughts and human interventions, the Urmia Lake basin has faced increasing unallowable withdrawal of water resources and environmental requirements share. Over the past two decades, a series of natural and human factors have gradually changed the water balance of Lake Urmia. In addition, decreases in precipitation have been the main reason for the gap between water resources and increasing water consumption in the basin, especially in the agricultural sector. In order to deal with the Urmia Lake catastrophe, a working group was formed for the Urmia Lake restoration. The working group planned and proposed solutions to reach the ecological level of the lake in three stages within 10 years through in-basin water supply and inter-basin water transfer programs. The present research, while investigating the solutions for providing the environmental water requirement of Lake Urmia using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, changes in the water volume of Lake Urmia in the scenarios of water transfer from the surface flow of each entering river in the lake in the years of high intensity severe to mild drought, the implementation of the approvals of the national working group to restore Urmia Lake, including a 40% reduction in agricultural consumption from the sources of dams and other rivers without dams, releasing water from dams in non-agricultural seasons, transferring water from urban wastewater and finally transferring water between the Zab basin has quantitatively been evaluated using the MODSIM simulation model. This research will help to predict the amount of transferable water in drought, normal, and drought conditions and to plan the water accounting of the Urmia catchment. Materials and Methods The watershed of Lake Urmia, located in the northwest of Iran, with an area of 51,876 square kilometers, is one of the six main watersheds of the country, which is located between the provinces of West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan, and Kurdistan. In terms of its territorial location, the catchment area of the Zab Kochak river is in the western part of the international border with Iraq and in the catchment area of the Western Border River basin. A significant part of the Zab watershed (source of water transfer) is located outside the country and in Iraq. The route of water transfer between the basins of the Zab basin is from the place of two dams, Silweh and Kaniseeb, which after entering the Godarchai river will eventually enter the Urmia lake water body. The different solutions from the working group’s approval have been selected for developing six scenarios. Then, the Scenarios have been evaluated by the MODSIM model and AHP analysis method. The scenarios are including reducing agricultural expenses from dams in operation, saving by reducing agricultural expenses from other rivers, transferring water between basins, transferring effluent to Lake Urmia, releasing water from dams in operation to Lake Urmia. A hierarchical structure was developed with the aim of evaluating solutions to save Lake Urmia through internal sources and transfer water sources. In this structure, there are four criteria of climate, consumption, economic-social, and environmental status. Sub-criteria of drought, surface water extraction from rivers, extraction from dam sources, extraction from groundwater resources, development of agricultural lands, and ensuring the sustainability of river flow. and providing solutions for inter-basin water transfer, a 40% reduction of agricultural water consumption from surface water sources of rivers and dams, wastewater transfer, and a 40% reduction of agricultural water consumption from underground water sources in Expert Choice software, were analyzed. Results and Discussion In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the defined scenarios, the simulation model was implemented for future conditions during the next 10 or 15 water years for different scenarios. The results show that the implementation of scenarios 4 and 6, will bring the largest increase in the volume of lake water, of course, with the occurrence of precipitation and proper input. Regarding the results of scenario 1 and the sameness of its results in two periods of 10 and 15 years, it can be stated because in the definition of the scenario, it is a dry year and the amount of evaporation of the lake water is more than the amount of input into the lake. There has been no increase in the lake's water volume for several consecutive years. Also, the results show that in wet and dry years, if the maximum transfer flow scenario is implemented, we will not have a flow from the Zab river to the downstream side, and it will not be accepted from the hydrodiplomacy point of view for the neighboring country in terms of influencing the use of the Dukan dam. Therefore, water diplomacy solutions are needed to reduce environmental threats. Therefore, the issue of transferring water from the Zab basin to Lake Urmia cannot be considered guaranteed in the long term due to the impossibility of reducing the outflow of water from the country to zero. Conclusion In conclusion, in order to evaluate all scenarios to satisfy the environmental needs of Lake Urmia shows that the protection of the lake requires correcting the mistakes of the path traveled in the current and past years, and preferably with a 40% reduction in agricultural consumption from dams and other rivers, groundwater in the basin is the main supplier of Urmia Lake. Inter-basin water transfer is the next priority because the source catchment is able to transfer water in the face of droughts due to the reduction of runoff and related challenges as well as its negative economic and social effects. It will not be as much as predicted and included in the program (600 million cubic meters per year). In addition to that, water diplomacy is necessary in terms of impacting downstream transboundary uses and reducing environmental threats. The results of this research and the high costs of water supply requirements, in parallel with the investigation of controversial options and costs of interbasin water transfer projects, macro-management of water resources towards demand and consumption management and water saving programs and the modification of water consumption patterns and the legality of the behavior of water users from within the catchment area of Lake Urmia should be low-cost, sustainable and reliable solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, two models of Random Forest and copula-based simulation were used to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model in simulating the daily discharge of the Siminehroud River in the south of Lake Urmia basin, Iran. A trivariate copula-based model was created using discharge, rainfall and temperature data on a daily scale in the period 1992–2018. Vine family models and their conditional densities were used to implement the copula-based model. By calibrating the IHACRES model and also selecting the tree sequence in accordance with the data, rainfall-runoff simulations were performed in the study area. The accuracy and efficiency of the studied models were evaluated using RMSE and NSE criteria, and also violin plot and Taylor diagram. The results of comparing the error rate of rainfall-runoff simulation in the study area showed that the vine-based model reduces the RMSE statistics by about 14.5 and 16.5%, respectively, compared to the IHACRES and Random Forest models. According to the presented diagrams, the efficiency and certainty of IHACRES and copula-based simulation models are acceptable. While the Random Forest model does not have acceptable accuracy and efficiency in the study area. The copula-based simulation model has a good performance due to the unique tree sequence as well as involving the marginal distributions fitted to the data. Although the copula-based simulation model has increased the efficiency of the model in simulating the daily discharge by about 5% compared to the IHACRES model, it is not significant compared to the mathematical complexity of the copula-based model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Introduction: Desiccation of Urmia Lake in the last two decades and saline dust emission from its dry bed has become an environmental crisis in the northwest of Iran. The main purpose of this study is the modeling of the deposition rate, transport pathway and emission height of saline dust over Urmia Lake based on near surface winds. Methods: In this regard, observed severe winds around the lake were analyzed. Subsequently, by matching of strong winds with MODIS satellite AOD products, a number of dust storms generated over Urmia Lake were selected and then storm generation date and location determined. In next step the HYSPLIT model was run in forward mode for 18 hours. To assess the model results, its outputs were compared with synoptic maps. Findings: Results showed that although strong winds are possible from all directions, but the prevailing directions are from the south, southwest and north respectively. Modeling results showed that saline dust diffusion is possible in all directions, and also transporting pathway, deposition rate and mixed layer height of saline dust can be different in terms of surface winds characteristics and especially upper levels atmospheric currents. Based on the results the emission path of the salt dust is more in line with upper levels winds, and raising particles may be emitted a distance of ~200 kilometers in 18 hours. Eventually, raising top height of saline particles could up to 4000 meters according to the intensity of ascending fluxes.

Abstract Background Urmia lake, as a national park, is one of the most valuable aquatic ecosystems in the Middle East and quatitative and qualitative changes in Urmia lake water have a great impact on its ecological performance and in the region. Objectives This project was designed to study the effects of the extent of Urmia lake water surface area on the area size and on the number of aquatic birds of the six selected habitats in 2011–2019. The presence of avian influenza (AI) and Newcastle disease (ND) viruses in migratory aquatic birds together with their impacts on poultry farms as well as on rural birds was also under surveillance in 2018–2019. Methods Changes of Urmia lake and its impacts on area size of the six selected birds habitats were monitored by GIS. The small monitoring program with circular plot point counts was used for counting of the number of birds of the six selected habitats. At least, 100 samples (oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs) were collected. each sample was placed in a sterile plastic tube containg transport media and assigned with an number and store untill used. Reverse transcription‐polymerase chain reaction (RT‐PCR) and real‐time RT‐PCR test were used for detection of AI and ND viruses in the samples. Results The results revealed that changes in the water surface area of Urmia lake had a gsignificat impacts on area size and the number of aquatic birds of the six selected habitats. The surveillance results showed that 5% of the samples were AIV positvie while 25% of the samples were pasitive for NDV including 20% for non‐virulent NDV (lNDV) and 5% for virulent NDV (vNDV) strains. Conclusion This study showed that fluctuation of Urmia lake's water surface area influenced (p

Extensive arsenic contamination of groundwater, rivers, and agricultural farms has led to widespread arsenic poisoning and consequent problems associated with health and economy. In recent years, many studies have been performed to understand bacterial arsenic detoxification and metabolism which has paved the way for bioremediation applications. This study attempted to isolate and characterize arsenic-resistant bacteria from the drying Urmia lake. As a result of the 16S rDNA analysis, six arsenic-resistant strains were identified as the members of Shouchella, Salipaludibacillus, and Evansella genera. For some of the strains, the maximum tolerance concentration for either arsenate or arsenite was considerably high, 320 and 16 mM, respectively. All the strains harbored the arsenate reductase gene (arsC). The arsenate permease (arsB) gene was identified in all strains except in strains S1, S12, and E15. The metabolic genes of respiratory arsenate reductase (arrB) and arsenite oxidase (arxA) were identified in none of these strains. This feature of the strains with the arsC gene region can be exploited to bioremediate arsenic from contaminated areas by using a two-step process. The second step can be carried out by the adsorption of arsenite to iron oxide or by precipitation with sulfide. Today, more and more ecosystems are being destroyed due to anthropogenic pollution, and it is important to reveal the negative effects and solutions of this situation on the ecosystems. So, the current study provides a potential source of bacteria for such studies that implement bioremediation practices to prevent arsenic catastrophe in vicinal territories, and reveals arsenic pollution in Urmia lake.

The importance of groundwater potential mapping (GWPM) is eminent for the proper management of underpinning resources. This research applies artificial intelligence-based GWPM to the surroundings of Urmia Lake (Iran) which, unfortunately, has been facing severe drying in recent years. An artificial neural network (ANN) is assisted by an optimization algorithm, namely the water-cycle algorithm (WCA) to spatially analyze the relationship between environmental factors and the presence of springs. The proposed model goes through an iterative course to find the optimal contribution of the environment to the GWP within the study area. The results indicated the promising capability of the WCA-ANN for analyzing the spring patterns and also producing reliable GWPMs. Moreover, the WCA outperformed three benchmark algorithms called political optimizer (PO), equilibrium optimization (EO), and electrostatic discharge algorithm (ESDA). Area under the curve values of 0.761, 0.757, 0.801, and 0.767, as well as mean absolute errors of 0.205, 0.203, 0.186, and 0.201, respectively, have been obtained for the PO-ANN, EO-ANN, WCA-ANN, and ESDA-ANN. These outcomes indicate the greater competency of the proposed algorithm. The WCA-ANN and ESDA-ANN algorithms are both therefore recommended as capable methodologies for GWPM. Besides, the maps suggested in this study may help overcoming the Urmia Lake crisis by identifying wealthy groundwater resources in the nearby. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]