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Using observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory's Atmosphere Imaging Assembly and the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager, we present novel measurements of the shear of post-reconnection flare loops (PRFLs) in SOL20141218T21:40 and study its evolution with respect to magnetic reconnection and flare emission. Two quasi-parallel ribbons form adjacent to the magnetic polarity inversion line (PIL), spreading in time first parallel to the PIL and then mostly in a perpendicular direction. We measure magnetic reconnection rate from the ribbon evolution, and also the shear angle of a large number of PRFLs observed in extreme ultraviolet passbands ($\lesssim$1 MK). For the first time, the shear angle measurements are conducted using several complementary techniques allowing for a cross-validation of the results. In this flare, the total reconnection rate is much enhanced before a sharp increase of the hard X-ray emission, and the median shear decreases from 60$^\circ$-70$^\circ$ to 20$^\circ$, on a time scale of ten minutes. We find a correlation between the shear-modulated total reconnection rate and the non-thermal electron flux. These results confirm the strong-to-weak shear evolution suggested in previous observational studies and reproduced in numerical models, and also confirm that, in this flare, reconnection is not an efficient producer of energetic non-thermal electrons during the first ten minutes when the strongly sheared PRFLs are formed. We conclude that an intermediate shear angle, $\le 40^\circ$, is needed for efficient particle acceleration via reconnection, and we propose a theoretical interpretation., Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures

We present EUV solar observations showing evidence for omnipresent jetting activity driven by small-scale magnetic reconnection at the base of the solar corona. We argue that the physical mechanism that heats and drives the solar wind at its source is ubiquitous magnetic reconnection in the form of small-scale jetting activity (i.e., a.k.a. jetlets). This jetting activity, like the solar wind and the heating of the coronal plasma, are ubiquitous regardless of the solar cycle phase. Each event arises from small-scale reconnection of opposite polarity magnetic fields producing a short-lived jet of hot plasma and Alfv\'en waves into the corona. The discrete nature of these jetlet events leads to intermittent outflows from the corona, which homogenize as they propagate away from the Sun and form the solar wind. This discovery establishes the importance of small-scale magnetic reconnection in solar and stellar atmospheres in understanding ubiquitous phenomena such as coronal heating and solar wind acceleration. Based on previous analyses linking the switchbacks to the magnetic network, we also argue that these new observations might provide the link between the magnetic activity at the base of the corona and the switchback solar wind phenomenon. These new observations need to be put in the bigger picture of the role of magnetic reconnection and the diverse form of jetting in the solar atmosphere., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures

We present a new methodology -- the Keplerian Optical Dynamics Analysis (KODA) -- for analyzing the dynamics of dense, cool material in the solar corona. The technique involves adaptive spatiotemporal tracking of propagating intensity gradients and their characterization in terms of time-evolving Keplerian areas swept out by the position vectors of moving plasma blobs. Whereas gravity induces purely ballistic motions consistent with Kepler's second law, non-central forces such as the Lorentz force introduce non-zero torques resulting in more complex motions. KODA algorithms enable direct evaluation of the line-of-sight component of the net torque density from the image-plane projection of the areal acceleration. The method is applied to the prominence eruption of 2011 June 7, observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory's Atmospheric Imaging Assembly. Results obtained include quantitative estimates of the magnetic forces, field intensities, and blob masses and energies across a vast region impacted by the post-reconnection redistribution of the prominence material. The magnetic pressure and energy are strongly dominant during the early, rising phase of the eruption, while the dynamic pressure and kinetic energy become significant contributors during the subsequent falling phases. Measured intensive properties of the prominence blobs are consistent with those of typical active-region prominences; measured extensive properties are compared with those of the whole pre-eruption prominence and the post-eruption coronal mass ejection of 2011 June 7, all derived by other investigators and techniques. We argue that KODA provides valuable information on characteristics of erupting prominences that are not readily available via alternative means, thereby shedding new light on their environment and evolution., Comment: 22 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables

Solar coronal plumes long seemed to possess a simple geometry supporting spatially coherent, stable outflow without significant fine structure. Recent high-resolution observations have challenged this picture by revealing numerous transient, small-scale, collimated outflows ("jetlets") at the base of plumes. The dynamic filamentary structure of solar plumes above these outflows, and its relationship with the overall plume structure, have remained largely unexplored. We analyzed the statistics of continuously observed fine structure inside a single representative bright plume within a mid-latitude coronal hole during 2016 July 2-3. By applying advanced edge-enhancement and spatiotemporal analysis techniques to extended series of high-resolution images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory's Atmospheric Imaging Assembly, we determined that the plume was composed of numerous time-evolving filamentary substructures, referred to as "plumelets" in this paper, that accounted for most of the plume emission. The number of simultaneously identifiable plumelets was positively correlated with plume brightness, peaked in the fully formed plume, and remained saturated thereafter. The plumelets had transverse widths of 10 Mm and intermittently supported upwardly propagating periodic disturbances with phase speeds of 190-260 km/s and longitudinal wavelengths of 55-65 Mm. The characteristic frequency (3.5 mHz) is commensurate with that of solar p-modes. Oscillations in neighboring plumelets are uncorrelated, indicating that the waves could be driven by p-mode flows at spatial scales smaller than the plumelet separation. Multiple independent sources of outflow within a single coronal plume should impart significant fine structure to the solar wind that may be detectable by Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter., Comment: ApJ, in press, 22 pages, 18 figures

We report Magnetospheric Multiscale observations of electron pressure gradient electric fields near a magnetic reconnection diffusion region using a new technique for extracting 7.5 ms electron moments from the Fast Plasma Investigation. We find that the deviation of the perpendicular electron bulk velocity from $E \times B$ drift in the interval where the out-of-plane current density is increasing can be explained by the diamagnetic drift. In the interval where the out-of-plane current is transitioning to in-plane current, the electron momentum equation is not satisfied at 7.5 ms resolution., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures

We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). The primary aim of this investigation is to explore the construction of an ensemble for an initial prototyping of this new concept. Using the probabilistic forecasts from three models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (NASA-GSFC) and the NOAA forecasts, we developed an ensemble forecast by linearly combining the flaring probabilities from all four methods. Performance-based combination weights were calculated using a Monte-Carlo-type algorithm that applies a decision threshold $P_{th}$ to the combined probabilities and maximizing the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). Using the data for 13 recent solar active regions between years 2012 - 2014, we found that linear combination methods can improve the overall probabilistic prediction and improve the categorical prediction for certain values of decision thresholds. Combination weights vary with the applied threshold and none of the tested individual forecasting models seem to provide more accurate predictions than the others for all values of $P_{th}$. According to the maximum values of HSS, a performance-based weights calculated by averaging over the sample, performed similarly to a equally weighted model. The values $P_{th}$ for which the ensemble forecast performs the best are 25 \% for M-class flares and 15 \% for X-class flares. When the human-adjusted probabilities from NOAA are excluded from the ensemble, the ensemble performance in terms of the Heidke score, is reduced., Comment: Accepted for publication in Space Weather

On 20 August 2010 an energetic disturbance triggered large-amplitude longitudinal oscillations in a nearby filament. The triggering mechanism appears to be episodic jets connecting the energetic event with the filament threads. In the present work we analyze this periodic motion in a large fraction of the filament to characterize the underlying physics of the oscillation as well as the filament properties. The results support our previous theoretical conclusions that the restoring force of large-amplitude longitudinal oscillations is solar gravity, and the damping mechanism is the ongoing accumulation of mass onto the oscillating threads. Based on our previous work, we used the fitted parameters to determine the magnitude and radius of curvature of the dipped magnetic field along the filament, as well as the mass accretion rate onto the filament threads. These derived properties are nearly uniform along the filament, indicating a remarkable degree of cohesiveness throughout the filament channel. Moreover, the estimated mass accretion rate implies that the footpoint heating responsible for the thread formation, according to the thermal nonequilibrium model, agrees with previous coronal heating estimates. We estimate the magnitude of the energy released in the nearby event by studying the dynamic response of the filament threads, and discuss the implications of our study for filament structure and heating., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

Hot flow anomalies (HFAs) represent a subset of solar wind discontinuities interacting with collisionless bow shocks. They are typically formed when the normal component of motional (convective) electric field points toward the embedded current sheet on at least one of its sides. The core region of an HFA contains hot and highly deflected ion flows and rather low and turbulent magnetic field. In this paper, we report first observations of HFA-like events at Mercury identified over a course of two planetary years. Using data from the orbital phase of the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) mission, we identify a representative ensemble of active current sheets magnetically connected to Mercury's bow shock. We show that some of these events exhibit unambiguous magnetic and particle signatures of HFAs similar to those observed earlier at other planets, and present their key physical characteristics. Our analysis suggests that Mercury's bow shock does not only mediate the flow of supersonic solar wind plasma but also provides conditions for local particle acceleration and heating as predicted by previous numerical simulations. Together with earlier observations of HFA activity at Earth, Venus and Saturn, our results confirm that hot flow anomalies are a common property of planetary bow shocks, and show that the characteristic size of these events is of the order of one planetary radius., Comment: 39 pages, 15 figures, 2 tables

We use a nonstationary generalization of the higher-order structure function technique to investigate statistical properties of the magnetic field fluctuations recorded by MESSENGER spacecraft during its first flyby (01/14/2008) through the near Mercury's space environment, with the emphasis on key boundary regions participating in the solar wind -- magnetosphere interaction. Our analysis shows, for the first time, that kinetic-scale fluctuations play a significant role in the Mercury's magnetosphere up to the largest resolvable time scale ~20 s imposed by the signal nonstationarity, suggesting that turbulence at this planet is largely controlled by finite Larmor radius effects. In particular, we report the presence of a highly turbulent and extended foreshock system filled with packets of ULF oscillations, broad-band intermittent fluctuations in the magnetosheath, ion-kinetic turbulence in the central plasma sheet of Mercury's magnetotail, and kinetic-scale fluctuations in the inner current sheet encountered at the outbound (dawn-side) magnetopause. Overall, our measurements indicate that the Hermean magnetosphere, as well as the surrounding region, are strongly affected by non-MHD effects introduced by finite sizes of cyclotron orbits of the constituting ion species. Physical mechanisms of these effects and their potentially critical impact on the structure and dynamics of Mercury's magnetic field remain to be understood., Comment: 46 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables

Based on a spatiotemporal analysis of POLAR UVI images, we show that the auroral emission events that initiate equatorward of the isotropic boundary (IB) obtained from a time-dependent empirical model, have systematically steeper power-law slopes of energy, power, area and lifetime probability distributions compared to the events that initiate poleward of the IB. The low-latitude group of events contains a distinct subpopulation of substorm-scale disturbances violating the power-law behavior, while the high latitude group is described by nearly perfect power-law statistics over the entire range of scales studied. The results obtained indicate that the inner and outer portions of the plasma sheet are characterized by substantially different scaling regimes of bursty energy dissipation suggestive of different physics in these regions., Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, 2 tables

Loading and consequent unloading of magnetic flux is an essential element of the substorm cycle in Earth's magnetotail. We are unaware of an available global MHD magnetospheric simulation model that includes a loading- unloading cycle in its behavior. Given the central role that MHD models presently play in the development of our understanding of magnetospheric dynamics, and given the present plans for the central role that these models will play in ongoing space weather prediction programs, it is clear that this failure must be corrected. A 2-dimensional numerical driven current-sheet model has been developed that incorporates an idealized current- driven instability with a resistive MHD system. Under steady loading, the model exhibits a global loading- unloading cycle. The specific mechanism for producing the loading-unloading cycle will be discussed. It will be shown that scale-free avalanching of electromagnetic energy through the model, from loading to unloading, is carried by repetitive bursts of localized reconnection. Each burst leads, somewhat later, to a field configuration that is capable of exciting a reconnection burst again. This process repeats itself in an intermittent manner while the total field energy in the system falls. At the end of an unloading interval, the total field energy is reduced to well below that necessary to initiate the next unloading event and, thus, a loading-unloading cycle results. It will be shown that, in this model, it is the topology of bursty localized reconnection that is responsible for the appearance of the loading-unloading cycle.

Borovsky et al. have shown that Earth's magnetotail plasma sheet is strongly turbulent. More recently, Borovsky and Funsten have shown that eddy turbulence dominates and have suggested that the eddy turbulence is driven by fast flows that act as jets in the plasma. Through basic considerations of energy and magnetic flux conservation, these fast flows are thought to be localized to small portions of the total plasma sheet and to be generated by magnetic flux reconnection that is similarly localized. Angelopoulos et al., using single spacecraft Geotail data, have shown that the plasma sheet turbulence exhibits signs of intermittence and Weygand et al., using four spacecraft Cluster data, have confirmed and expanded on this conclusion. Uritsky et al., using Polar UVI image data, have shown that the evolution of bright, nightside, UV auroral emission regions is consistent with many of the properties of systems in self-organized criticality (SOC). Klimas et al. have suggested that the auroral dynamics is a reflection of the dynamics of the fast flows in the plasma. sheet. Their hypothesis is that the transport of magnetic fludenergy through the magnetotail is enabled by scale-free avalanches of localized reconnection whose SOC dynamics are reflected in the auroral UV emission dynamics. A corollary of this hypothesis is that the strong, intermittent, eddy turbulence of the plasma sheet is closely related to its critical dynamics. The question then arises: Can in situ evidence for the SOC dynamics be found in the properties of the plasma sheet turbulence? A 2-dimensional numerical driven current-sheet model of the central plasma sheet has been developed that incorporates an idealized current-driven instability with a resistive MHD system. It has been shown that the model can evolve into SOC in a physically relevant parameter regime. Initial results from a study of intermittent turbulence in this model and the relationship of this turbulence to the model's known SOC dynamics will be discussed.