1. Applying a Digital Twin and wastewater analysis for robust validation of COVID-19 pandemic forecasts: insights from Catalonia
- Author
-
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Estadística i Investigació Operativa, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Càtedra Unesco de Sostenibilitat, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. IMP - Information Modeling and Processing, Fonseca Casas, Pau, Garcia Subirana, Joan, Corominas, Lluís, Bosch, Lluís Maria, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Estadística i Investigació Operativa, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Càtedra Unesco de Sostenibilitat, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. IMP - Information Modeling and Processing, Fonseca Casas, Pau, Garcia Subirana, Joan, Corominas, Lluís, and Bosch, Lluís Maria
- Abstract
Monitoring the spread of SARS-CoV-2 presents significant challenges due to the asymptomatic nature of the infections, the presence of numerous variants, and changes in population behavior resulting from the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at reducing transmission. To accurately estimate the true rate of infection, we have developed a Digital Twin model that simulates the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Catalonia. Continuous validation plays a crucial role in ensuring the accuracy of our model's predictions. Our system utilizes data from the Catalonia Health Service to quantify detected cases, hospitalizations, and the overall impact on the healthcare system. However, these data are susceptible to under-reporting due to changes in screening policies. To enhance the reliability of our model's forecasts, we incorporate data from the Catalan Surveillance Network of SARS-CoV-2 in Sewage (SARSAIGUA). In this paper, we show how we utilize sewage data in the validation process of the Digital Twin to identify any discrepancies between the model's predictions and real-time data. We outline how this continuous validation approach allows us to generate long-term forecasts and gain insights into the current situation regarding the spread of SARS-CoV-2, enabling us to reassess assumptions and enhance our understanding of the pandemic's behavior in Catalonia., Peer Reviewed, Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::3 - Salut i Benestar, Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::3 - Salut i Benestar::3.3 - Per a 2030, posar fi a les epidèmies de la sida, tuberculosi, malària i les malalties tropicals desateses, i combatre l’hepatitis, les malalties transmeses per l’aigua i altres malalties transmissibles, Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::3 - Salut i Benestar::3.d - Reforçar la capacitat de tots els països, en particular els països en desenvolupament, en matèria d’alerta primerenca, reducció de riscos i gestió dels riscos per a la salut nacional i mundial, Postprint (published version)
- Published
- 2024