1. Clarifying the effect of biodiversity on productivity in natural ecosystems with longitudinal data and methods for causal inference
- Author
-
Dee, Laura E, Ferraro, Paul J, Severen, Christopher N, Kimmel, Kaitlin A, Borer, Elizabeth T, Byrnes, Jarrett E K, Clark, Adam Thomas, Hautier, Yann, Hector, Andrew, Raynaud, Xavier, Reich, Peter B, Wright, Alexandra J, Arnillas, Carlos A, Davies, Kendi F, MacDougall, Andrew, Mori, Akira S, Smith, Melinda D, Adler, Peter B, Bakker, Jonathan D, Brauman, Kate A, Cowles, Jane, Komatsu, Kimberly, Knops, Johannes M H, McCulley, Rebecca L, Moore, Joslin L, Morgan, John W, Ohlert, Timothy, Power, Sally A, Sullivan, Lauren L, Stevens, Carly, Loreau, Michel, Sub Ecology and Biodiversity, Ecology and Biodiversity, University of Colorado [Boulder], University of Minnesota [Twin Cities] (UMN), University of Minnesota System, University of Massachusetts [Boston] (UMass Boston), University of Massachusetts System (UMASS), Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Utrecht University [Utrecht], Institut d'écologie et des sciences de l'environnement de Paris (iEES Paris ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Western Sydney University, University of Michigan System, California State University [Los Angeles] (CAL STATE LA), University of Toronto at Scarborough, Université Saint-Francis-Xavier (CANADA), Yokohama National University, Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), University of Washington [Seattle], University of Alabama [Tuscaloosa] (UA), Station d'Ecologie Théorique et Expérimentale (SETE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Fédération de Recherche Agrobiosciences, Interactions et Biodiversité (FR AIB), Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CEREEP-Ecotron Ile De France (CNRS/ENS UMS 3194), Regional Council of Ile- de-France (DIM Program R2DS I-05-098/R), GoF/ANR’s Investissements d’Avenir program (ANR-11-INBS-0001 AnaEE France, ANR-10-IDEX- 0001-02 PSL), Sub Ecology and Biodiversity, and Ecology and Biodiversity
- Subjects
Identification ,Multidisciplinary ,Ecology ,Chemistry(all) ,Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all) ,Resistance ,General Physics and Astronomy ,Instrumental variables ,General Chemistry ,Biodiversity ,Physics and Astronomy(all) ,Plants ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,Time ,Causality ,[SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems ,Plant diversity ,Alter ,Biomass ,[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology ,Guide ,In-differences ,Ecosystem - Abstract
Causal effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functions can be estimated using experimental or observational designs — designs that pose a tradeoff between drawing credible causal inferences from correlations and drawing generalizable inferences. Here, we develop a design that reduces this tradeoff and revisits the question of how plant species diversity affects productivity. Our design leverages longitudinal data from 43 grasslands in 11 countries and approaches borrowed from fields outside of ecology to draw causal inferences from observational data. Contrary to many prior studies, we estimate that increases in plot-level species richness caused productivity to decline: a 10% increase in richness decreased productivity by 2.4%, 95% CI [−4.1, −0.74]. This contradiction stems from two sources. First, prior observational studies incompletely control for confounding factors. Second, most experiments plant fewer rare and non-native species than exist in nature. Although increases in native, dominant species increased productivity, increases in rare and non-native species decreased productivity, making the average effect negative in our study. By reducing the tradeoff between experimental and observational designs, our study demonstrates how observational studies can complement prior ecological experiments and inform future ones.
- Published
- 2023