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Osteoporosis is a global issue with a worldwide prevalence of 18.3%, and the presence of coexisting fragility fractures can reduce the survival rate by approximately 20%. In Japan, the prevalence of osteoporosis is estimated to be 12.8 million, and the annual occurrence of hip fractures is approximately 193,400. Remarkably, coexisting hip or spinal fragility fractures caused by slight external force meet the Japanese diagnostic criterion for osteoporosis regardless of bone mineral density. However, only 191 deaths due to osteoporosis were published in 2021 in Japan. With the concern that some cases of hip and spinal fragility fractures were assigned an underlying cause of death of traumatic fracture instead of osteoporosis, this study aimed to elucidate the actual number of deaths due to osteoporosis in Japan. We used the data from Japan in 2018. First, the number of deaths due to osteoporosis and hip or spinal fractures was reviewed using published vital statistics. Second, we calculated the number of elderly deaths (age ≥80 years) resulting from hip or spinal fractures caused by falls on the same level using data from approximately 1.4 million annual individual death certificates. Combining the above data, the actual number of deaths due to osteoporosis was estimated. Only 190 deaths due to osteoporosis were reported in the published data. The individual certificate data revealed 3437 elderly deaths due to hip or spinal fractures caused by falls on the same level, which could meet the criteria of osteoporotic fragility fractures. Accordingly, the estimated number of deaths caused by osteoporosis was calculated as 3,627, approximately 19 times the published value. After researching the individual death certificate data focusing on the coexisting hip or spinal fragility fracture, it was implied that osteoporosis may have a higher mortality rate in Japan than what is published. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: This study aims to explore the treatment pattern of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Aotearoa/New Zealand. Methods: SLE patients were linked to the pharmaceutical dispensing data. The use of publicly funded anti-malarials, immunomodulators, biologics, glucocorticoids and bisphosphonates were compared by gender, ethnicity, age group, socioeconomic status and year of SLE identification. Adherence to hydroxychloroquine was examined using the medication possession ratio (MPR), with a MPR of ≥0.8 considered as high adherence. Results: Of the 2631 SLE patients, 73.8% used hydroxychloroquine, 64.1% used immunomodulators/biologics and 68.0% used 5 mg or more prednisone daily for at least 90 days. Women were more likely to use hydroxychloroquine than men. Asian patients had a different treatment pattern than other ethnic groups, and Māori were less likely to use hydroxychloroquine. The proportions of patients using different treatments decreased with age. Of the patients using hydroxychloroquine, 54.5% had high adherence. For patients over 40 years old and on long term prednisone, 47.3% had bisphosphonates and this figure was 17.8% for patients under the age of 40 years old. Patients with better socioeconomic status had a higher probability of using bisphosphonates than patients with lower socioeconomic status. Conclusions: Adherence to hydroxychloroquine in these patients varied and was lower in men and in Māori. Prednisone is commonly prescribed and used long term. Half of those over the age of 40 years old co-administered bisphosphonate. Further research is needed to identify the reasons for these discrepancies on SLE treatments by gender, ethnicity, age and socioeconomic status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives This study aims to assess the mortality of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients and examine whether there are variations by subgroup. Methods SLE patients from 2005 to 2021 were identified from the national administrative datasets. The underlying causes of death were examined. Standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was estimated to compare the relative rate of observed deaths in SLE patients with expected deaths in the general population. The hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of all-cause mortality and SLE specific mortality by ethnicity were estimated after adjustment for age using a Cox proportional hazards model. Results Of the 2802 patients included for analysis, 699 (24.9%) died with 209 (29.9%) SLE deaths. The age-standardized mortality rate of SLE was 0.29 per 100 000 for women and 0.05 for men. The mean age at death was 65.3 (17.1) years. Younger patients were more likely to have SLE as the underlying cause of death, from 78.9% for those under 20 years old to 18.7% for those aged 70–79 years. Compared with the general population, SLE patients were four times more likely to die (SMR: 4.0; 95% CI: 3.7, 4.3). Young patients had higher SMRs than older patients. Māori had worse all-cause mortality (HR: 1.72; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.67) and SLE specific mortality (HR: 2.60; 95% CI: 1.29, 5.24) than others. Conclusions The outcomes of SLE in New Zealand were still very poor compared with the general population. Māori with SLE had worse survival than others. Further research is needed to identify the reasons for this disparity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Objective: This study aimed at investigating the extent to which COVID-19-induced fatalities affect the duration of palliative care among patients with advanced cancer. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at the Palliative Care Unit of the Brazilian Instituto Nacional de Câncer in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on 1,104 advanced cancer patients who died under exclusive palliative care between March 11, 2020, and March 31, 2021. Wilcoxon rank-sum (Mann-Whitney U) and log-rank tests were performed to examine statistical differences between the medians of time, and the Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to graphically illustrate survival over time under exclusive palliative care contingent upon the underlying causes of death of the two experimental groups (cancer versus COVID-19). Results: A total of 133 (12.05%) patients succumbed to COVID-19. In both groups, the median time under exclusive palliative care was less than one month. The exclusive palliative care survival curves did not exhibit any statistically significant difference between the groups. Conclusion: Death due to COVID-19 did not modify the duration of exclusive palliative care among patients with advanced cancer.

Background: Mortality is an important indicator for estimating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, different registrations provide different figures and the question is how to interpret the number of COVID-19 deaths reported. Objective: To study the role of COVID-19 in dying in order to explain the representation of COVID-19 in cause-of-death statistics. Methods: Analysis of all death certificates mentioning COVID-19 in the Dutch cause-of-death registry during the pandemic (n=51,181). The role of COVID-19 as cause of death was studied by the way it was reported on death certificates. A calculation of odds ratios was performed for studying associations between COVID-19 and other reported causes of death.Results: In 24% of the cases COVID-19 was the only cause of death mentioned on a death certificate. In 76% of the cases, one or more other diseases played a role in dying. Three patterns emerged: COVI9 associated with 1. neurodegenerative disorders, 2. chronic respiratory disorders, and 3. metabolic disorders. Of all death certificates mentioning the diseases, COVID-19 was the start of the causal chain leading to death in 45.2% of the cases, while COVID-19 was selected for cause-of-death statistics by special World Health Organization WHO instructions in 93.9% of the cases. Conclusions: Cause-of-death statistics overestimate the role of COVI9 as underlying cause of death. In a majority of the deceased cases, there is an association of COVID-19 with other diseases not captured by cause-of-death statistics reporting (only) one cause of death per deceased. ti-causal approach is needed to evaluate the pandemic and inform health policy.

Aim: The underlying cause of death represents the most important information on death certificates. Often, conditions that cannot represent a true underlying cause of death are listed as such. This phenomenon affects the quality of vital statistics and results of studies using cause-specific mortality as endpoints. We aimed at exploring the magnitude and factors associated with the use of heart failure to describe the underlying cause of death. Methods: In this cross-sectional, register based study we linked data from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry and the Norwegian Patient Registry. We used logistic regression models to analyse the association between external factors and heart failure listed as the underlying cause of death. Results: Heart failure was listed as the underlying cause of death in 3.6% of all deaths. The odds of heart failure increased: (a) by 35% for 5-year increment in age; (b) by 78% for deaths occurring at nursing homes (compared with in-hospital deaths); and (c) by 602% for deaths not followed by an autopsy (compared with those followed by an autopsy). Deceased with a previous hospitalisation with heart failure as the discharge diagnosis had 514% higher odds of having heart failure listed as their underlying cause of death. Of the deceased with heart failure listed as the underlying cause of death, 9.4% did not have any, and 69.2% had only irrelevant additional information for assessing the true underlying cause of death in their death certificates. Conclusions: Heart failure listed as the underlying cause of death was associated with age, place of death, autopsy and previous hospitalisations – all factors that should not influence coding procedures. Better completion of death certificates in accordance with the World Health Organization rules will help reduce the use of heart failure to describe the underlying cause of death. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background In developing countries, it is difficult to collect the data of the underlying cause of death (UCOD), especially when a death does not occur in a health facility. This study aimed to develop a short version of verbal autopsy (VA) and identify the UCOD of adults in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). Methods A short version of VA for deaths outside health facilities was developed. This study included all deaths of people aged 15 years old or older in Xaiyabouli Province in 2020. Socio-demographic factors, place of death, and UCOD of the deceased were collected from health facilities or from family members using a questionnaire including the short VA form. UCOD was compared between home deaths and hospital deaths, between the age group of 15–59 years old and the age group ≥ 60 years old, and between males and females. Results Of all the 1,235 deaths included in this study, 1,012 deaths (81.9%) occured at home and 223 deaths (18.1%) at hospitals. The most common UCOD was senility (13.3%), followed by heart/renal failure (10.5%), pneumonia (9.6%) and traffic accident (7.1%). Compared to hospital deaths, home deaths had more people who were females, 75 years old or older, and Lao-Tai. Home deaths had more deaths than hospital deaths due to accident/injury (16.0% vs. 8.1%), tumor (4.7% vs. 1.8%), and senility (16.2% vs. 0%); fewer deaths due to heart/renal disease (15.1% vs. 32.3%), respiratory disease (12.2% vs. 18.8%), liver/gastro-intestine disease (5.3% vs. 9.0%), and infection (3.1% vs. 14.3%). The age group of 15–59 years had more deaths in the categories of accident/injury (28.1% vs. 4.4%), liver/gastro-intestine disease (8.1% vs. 4.4%), infection (7.2% vs. 3.5%), and tumor (6.0% vs. 2.8%). Males had more deaths due to tumor (5.2% vs. 3.0%) and fewer natural deaths (11.2% vs. 15.9%) than females. Conclusions The major UCOD category was heart/renal disease in the adult generation in Xaiyabouli Province. Cost-effective interventions based on the multisectoral noncommunicable disease prevention plan should be appropriately implemented. Mortality surveillance using the short VA tool should be conducted for all home deaths in Lao PDR.

Objective: To examine international variations in national diagnosis and certification habits prefer recording dementia (D) versus Alzhiemer disease (AD) as the underlying cause of death (UCOD) and their associations with mortality rates of dementia and AD. Methods: We calculated proportions of D/D+AD and AD/D+AD deaths as proxies of national diagnosis and certification habits. Pearson correlation coefficients (r) were estimated to assess the associations of proportions with the mortality rates of dementia or AD among adults aged 75 to 84 years across 38 countries. Results: The countries with a high preference for recording dementia as the UCOD were Taiwan and Latvia with proportion of D/D+AD deaths of 92% and 88%, respectively, and those with a high preference for recording AD as the UCOD were Slovenia, Turkey, and Poland with proportion of AD/D+AD deaths of 100%, 99%, and 89%, respectively. The r values for the proportions and mortality rate for dementia and AD were 0.67 (95% CI: 0.44-0.81) and 0.46 (95% CI: 0.16-0.68), respectively. Conclusion: We identified a small number of countries with obvious natonal diagnosis and certification habits preferring dementia or AD and had moderate effects on international variations in the mortality rates of dementia and AD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background People with dermatomyositis (DM) or polymyositis (PM) often die from cancer, pulmonary, cardiac complications, or infections. In such cases, DM or PM might not be designated as the underlying cause of death (UCD) for mortality tabulation. In this study, we investigated DM/PM mortality trends in the USA from 1981 to 2020 with respect to UCD and multiple causes of death (MCD) data. Methods We used the MCD data to identify all deaths with DM or PM mentioned anywhere on the death certificate and as the UCD in the USA from 1981–1982 to 2019–2020. We calculated age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) and annual percentage changes (APCs) based on joinpoint regression analysis. Results We identified 12,249 (3985 with DM and 7097 with PM) and 23,608 (8264 with DM and 15,344 with PM) people who died between 1981 and 2020 according to the UCD and MCD data, respectively. For DM, the APC was − 6.7% (from 1981–1982 to 1985–1986), − 0.1% (from 1985–1986 to 2003–2004), and − 1.9% (from 2003–2004 to 2019–2020) according UCD and was − 1.2% (from 1981–1982 to 2003–2004), − 2.5% (from 2003–2004 to 2015–2016), and 2.8% (from 2015–2016 to 2019–2020) according MCD. For PM, the APC was 1.9% (from 1981–1982 to 1989–1990), − 2.3% (from 1989–1990 to 2005–2006), and − 5.2% (from 2005–2006 to 2019–2020) according UCD and was 1.3% (from 1981–1982 to 1991–1992) and − 4.1% (from 1991–1992 to 2019–2020) according MCD. Conclusion We identified two times as many DM/PM deaths using the MCD as those identified using the UCD. Similar downward DM/PM mortality trends were noted according to UCD and MCD. However, the year of significant decline in PM mortality was about 10 years earlier according to MCD than those according to UCD.

Background: In developing countries, it is difficult to collect the data of the underlying cause of death (UCOD), especially when a death does not occur in a health facility. This study aimed to develop a short version of verbal autopsy (VA) and identify the UCOD of adults in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). Methods: A short version of VA for deaths outside health facilities was developed. This study included all deaths of people aged 15 years old or older in Xaiyabouli Province in 2020. Socio-demographic factors, place of death, and UCOD of the deceased were collected from health facilities or from family members using a questionnaire including the short VA form. UCOD was compared between home deaths and hospital deaths, between the age group of 15–59 years old and the age group ≥ 60 years old, and between males and females. Results: Of all the 1,235 deaths included in this study, 1,012 deaths (81.9%) occured at home and 223 deaths (18.1%) at hospitals. The most common UCOD was senility (13.3%), followed by heart/renal failure (10.5%), pneumonia (9.6%) and traffic accident (7.1%). Compared to hospital deaths, home deaths had more people who were females, 75 years old or older, and Lao-Tai. Home deaths had more deaths than hospital deaths due to accident/injury (16.0% vs. 8.1%), tumor (4.7% vs. 1.8%), and senility (16.2% vs. 0%); fewer deaths due to heart/renal disease (15.1% vs. 32.3%), respiratory disease (12.2% vs. 18.8%), liver/gastro-intestine disease (5.3% vs. 9.0%), and infection (3.1% vs. 14.3%). The age group of 15–59 years had more deaths in the categories of accident/injury (28.1% vs. 4.4%), liver/gastro-intestine disease (8.1% vs. 4.4%), infection (7.2% vs. 3.5%), and tumor (6.0% vs. 2.8%). Males had more deaths due to tumor (5.2% vs. 3.0%) and fewer natural deaths (11.2% vs. 15.9%) than females. Conclusions: The major UCOD category was heart/renal disease in the adult generation in Xaiyabouli Province. Cost-effective interventions based on the multisectoral noncommunicable disease prevention plan should be appropriately implemented. Mortality surveillance using the short VA tool should be conducted for all home deaths in Lao PDR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim. To compare standardized mortality rates (SMR) from acute types of coronary artery disease (CAD) and sudden cardiac death (SCD) with an assessment of their regional variability in the Russian Federation in 2019-2021.Material and methods. Rosstat data on the average annual population and the number of deaths in one-year age groups for 2019-2021 in 82 Russian subjects from acute types of CAD and SCD were analyzed using following ICD-10 codes: I21.0-9 (acute primary) myocardial in­­farction (MI), I22.0-9 (recurrent MI), I20, I24.1-9 (other forms of acute coronary artery disease), I46.1 (SCD). SMR was calculated based on the European standard per 100,000 population. Average regional SMR values (M±SD), coefficients of variation (СV), nonparametric Wilcoxon T-test with Bonferroni adjustment were calculated (differences were considered significant at р

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Background: Severe microcephaly is a brain reduction defect where the delivery head circumference is <3rd percentile for gestational age and sex with subsequent lifelong morbidities. Our objective was to evaluate survival among 2,704 Texas infants with severe microcephaly delivered 1999–2015. Methods: Infants with severe microcephaly from the Texas Birth Defects Registry were linked to death certificates and the national death index. Survival estimates, hazard ratios (HR) and confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method and Cox proportional hazards models stratified by presence versus absence of co‐occurring defects. Results: We identified 496 deaths by age 4 years; most (42.9%) occurred in the neonatal period, and another 39.9% died by 1 year of age. Overall infant survival was 84.8%. Lowest infant survival subgroups included those with chromosomal/syndromic conditions (66.1%), very preterm deliveries (63.9%), or co‐occurring critical congenital heart defects (44.0%). Among infants with severe microcephaly and a chromosomal/syndromic co‐occurring defect, the risk of death was nearly three‐fold higher among those with: proportionate microcephaly (i.e., small baby overall), relative to non‐proportionate (HR = 2.84, 95% CI = 2.17–3.71); low‐birthweight relative to normal (HR = 2.72, 95% CI = 1.92–3.85); critical congenital heart defects (CCHD) relative to no CCHD (HR = 2.90, 95% CI = 2.20–3.80). Trisomies were a leading underlying cause of death (27.5%). Conclusions: Overall, infants with severe microcephaly had high 4‐year survival rates which varied by the presence of co‐occurring defects. Infants with co‐occurring chromosomal/syndromic anomalies have a higher risk of death by age one than those without any co‐occurring birth defects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Reliable mortality data are essential for the development of public health policies. In Brazil, although there is a well-consolidated universal system for mortality data, the quality of information on causes of death (CoD) is not even among Brazilian regions, with a high proportion of ill-defined CoD. Verbal autopsy (VA) is an alternative to improve mortality data. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of an adapted and reduced version of VA in identifying the underlying causes of non-forensic deaths, in São Paulo, Brazil. This is the first time that a version of the questionnaire has been validated considering the autopsy as the gold standard. Methods The performance of a physician-certified verbal autopsy (PCVA) was evaluated considering conventional autopsy (macroscopy plus microscopy) as gold standard, based on a sample of 2060 decedents that were sent to the Post-Mortem Verification Service (SVOC-USP). All CoD, from the underlying to the immediate, were listed by both parties, and ICD-10 attributed by a senior coder. For each cause, sensitivity and chance corrected concordance (CCC) were computed considering first the underlying causes attributed by the pathologist and PCVA, and then any CoD listed in the death certificate given by PCVA. Cause specific mortality fraction accuracy (CSMF-accuracy) and chance corrected CSMF-accuracy were computed to evaluate the PCVA performance at the populational level. Results There was substantial variability of the sensitivities and CCC across the causes. Well-known chronic diseases with accurate diagnoses that had been informed by physicians to family members, such as various cancers, had sensitivities above 40% or 50%. However, PCVA was not effective in attributing Pneumonia, Cardiomyopathy and Leukemia/Lymphoma as underlying CoD. At populational level, the PCVA estimated cause specific mortality fractions (CSMF) may be considered close to the fractions pointed by the gold standard. The CSMF-accuracy was 0.81 and the chance corrected CSMF-accuracy was 0.49. Conclusions The PCVA was efficient in attributing some causes individually and proved effective in estimating the CSMF, which indicates that the method is useful to establish public health priorities.

Objectives: It is important to assess the burden of ovarian cancer related premature death so as to develop appropriate evidence-based care and improve women's health. This study aimed to characterize the long-term trends in mortality, survival and disease burden of ovarian cancer in Shanghai, China. Materials and Methods: Co-morbidities, crude mortality rate (CMR), age- standardised mortality rate by Segi's world standard population (ASMRW), years of life lost (YLL), and survival rates were analysed. Temporal trends for the mortality rates and disease burden were analyzed using the Joinpoint Regression Program. Mortality rate increases by demographic and non- demographic factors were estimated by the decomposition method. Results: A total of 1088 ovarian cancer as underlying cause of deaths were recorded. CMR and ASMRW were 4.82/105 and 2.32/105 person-years, respectively. The YLL was 16372.96 years, and the YLL rate was 72.46/105 person-years. The YLL rate increased only in the age group of 70-79 years (P = 0.017).Thesurvival ratesofovariancancerpatientsdidnot improveduringtheten yearperiod(2005-2015).Thetopco-morbiditieswerediseasesof the respiratory system, digestive system, and circulatory system. The rates of ovarian cancer deaths caused by non-demographic and demographic factors increased by 21.29% (95%CI: 4.01% to 41.44%, P = 0.018) and 25.23% (95%CI: 14.64% to 36.81%, P < 0.001), respectively. Conclusions: Population ageing and all cause of death may affect ovarian cancer related deaths in Pudong, Shanghai. The highmortality and the stagnant survival rates suggest the need for more efforts in targeted prevention and treatment of this disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cause-of-death statistics are an age-old source of information for health policy and medical research. In these statistics, the presentation of data is based on the idea of an underlying cause of death, i.e. one ("the") cause of death per deceased. This idea reflects an 18th Century causal thinking and is less and less applicable to contemporary patterns of dying in high income countries with an aging population suffering from chronic diseases and multi- or comorbidity at the end of life. Therefore, today's clinical reality calls for an innovation of cause-of-death statistics. For this, I will consider contemporary philosophical ideas on causality and their application to death. I will argue multi-causality is a more comprehensive way to understand death than mono-causality, implying a change of perspective with regard to current cause-of-death statistics., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest None., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Abstract Background The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) does not produce estimates of heart failure (HF) since this condition is considered the common end to several diseases (i.e., garbage code). This study aims to analyze the interactions between underlying and multiple causes of death related to HF in Brazil and its geographic regions, by sex, from 2006 to 2016. Methods Descriptive study of a historical series of death certificates (DCs) related to deaths that occurred in Brazil between 2006 and 2016, including both sexes and all age groups. To identify HF as the underlying cause of death or as a multiple cause of death, we considered the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code I50 followed by any digit. We evaluated the deaths and constructed graphs by geographic region to compare with national data. Results We included 1,074,038 DCs issued between 2006 and 2016 that included code I50 in Parts I or II of the certificate. The frequency of HF as the multiple cause of death in both sexes was nearly three times higher than the frequency of HF as an underlying cause of death; this observation remained consistent over the years. The Southeast region had the highest number of deaths in all years (about 40,000 records) and approximately double the number in the Northeast region and more than four times the number in the North region. Codes of diseases clinically unrelated to HF, such as diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and stroke, were mentioned in 3.11, 2.62, and 1.49% of the DCs, respectively. Conclusions When we consider HF as the underlying cause of death, we observed an important underestimation of its impact on mortality, since when analyzed as a multiple cause of death, HF is present in almost three times more deaths recorded in Brazil from 2006 to 2016. The mentioning of conditions with little association with HF at the time of the death highlights the importance of HF as a complex syndrome with multiple components that must be considered in the analysis of mortality trends for implementation of public health management programs.

Background: To investigate all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Taiwanese patients with type 1 diabetes. Methods: A cohort of 17,203 patients with type 1 diabetes were identified from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance claims in the period of 1998–2014. Person-years were accumulated for each individual from date of type 1 diabetes registration to date of death or the last day of 2014. Age, sex, and calendar year standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated with reference to the general population. Results: In up to 17 years of follow-up, 4,916 patients died from 182,523 person-years. Diabetes (30.15%), cancer (20.48%), circulatory diseases (13.14%), and renal diseases (11.45%) were the leading underlying causes of death. Mortality rate (26.93 per 1,000 person-years) from type 1 diabetes in Taiwan was high, the cause of death with the highest mortality rate was diabetes (8.12 per 1,000 person-years), followed by cancer (5.52 per 1,000 person-years), and circulatory diseases (3.54 per 1,000 person-years). The all-cause SMR was significantly elevated at 4.16 (95% confidence interval, 4.04–4.28), with a greater all-cause SMR noted in females than in males (4.62 vs 3.79). The cause-specific SMR was highly elevated for diabetes (SMR, 16.45), followed by renal disease (SMR, 14.48), chronic hepatitis and liver cirrhosis (SMR, 4.91) and infection (SMR, 4.59). All-cause SMRs were also significantly increased for all ages, with the greatest figure noted for 15–24 years (SMR, 8.46). Conclusions: Type 1 diabetes in both genders and all ages was associated with significantly elevated SMRs for all-cause and mostly for diabetes per se and renal disease.

Abstract Background The expanded definition of liver-related deaths includes a wide range of etiologies and sequelae. We compared the changes in liver-related mortality by etiology and sequelae for different age groups between 2008 and 2018 in the USA using both underlying and multiple cause of death (UCOD and MCOD) data. Methods We extracted mortality data from the CDC WONDER. Both the absolute (rate difference) and relative (rate ratio and 95% confidence intervals) changes were calculated to quantify the magnitude of change using the expanded definition of liver-related mortality. Result Using the expanded definition including secondary liver cancer and according to UCOD data, we identified 68,037 liver-related deaths among people aged 20 years and above in 2008 (29 per 100,000) and this increased to 90,635 in 2018 (33 per 100,000), a 13% increase from 2008 to 2018. However, according to MCOD data, the number of deaths was 113,219 (48 per 100,000) in 2008 and increased to 161,312 (58 per 100,000) in 2018, indicating a 20% increase. The increase according to MCOD was mainly due to increase in alcoholic liver disease and secondary liver cancer (liver metastasis) for each age group and hepatitis C virus (HCV) and primary liver cancer among decedents aged 65–74 years. Conclusion The direction of mortality change (increasing or decreasing) was similar in UCOD and MCOD data in most etiologies and sequelae, except secondary liver cancer. However, the extent of change differed between UCOD and MCOD data.

In Lao PDR, Ministry of Health introduced District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS2) in 2013. Although DHIS2 includes cause of death, Lao government did not request to report cause of death through DHIS2, resulting in no information on frequency of underlying cause of death even for the deaths at medical facility. This study aimed to collect the information on the underlying cause of death at all medical facilities in Xaiyabouli province, a rural area in Lao PDR. As well as the point estimate of the proportion, a 95% confidence interval (CI) based on a binomial distribution was calculated for each cause of death. According to the local government request, 226 deaths (128 males and 98 females) in 2019 were reported from all medical facilities in the province. Among them, infectious diseases were the most frequent (33.6%, 95% CI 27.5-40.2%); sepsis (16.8%, 95% CI 12.2-22.3%), pneumonia (8.8%, 95% CI 5.5-13.3%), and meningitis (4.9%, 95% CI 2.5-8.5%). Heart diseases were 15.9% (95% CI 11.4-21.4%) including heart failure and myocardial infarction. Injury was 10.2% (95% CI 6.2-14.4%) including brain injury. Neonatal death was 10.6% (95% CI 6.9-15.4%). Among those, preterm death was common (8.8%, 95% CI 5.3-13.3%). Renal failure was 8.0% (95% CI 4.8-12.3%). According to civil registration covering all deaths both at facilities and outside facilities, deaths at facilities were 16.8% of the whole deaths (1,372 deaths) in Xaiyabouli province. Although deaths outside facilities were not included, this is the first report demonstrating cause of death in one province in Lao PDR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Reliable mortality data are essential for the development of public health policies. In Brazil, although there is a well-consolidated universal system for mortality data, the quality of information on causes of death (CoD) is not even among Brazilian regions, with a high proportion of ill-defined CoD. Verbal autopsy (VA) is an alternative to improve mortality data. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of an adapted and reduced version of VA in identifying the underlying causes of non-forensic deaths, in São Paulo, Brazil. This is the first time that a version of the questionnaire has been validated considering the autopsy as the gold standard.Methods: The performance of a physician-certified verbal autopsy (PCVA) was evaluated considering conventional autopsy (macroscopy plus microscopy) as gold standard, based on a sample of 2060 decedents that were sent to the Post-Mortem Verification Service (SVOC-USP). All CoD, from the underlying to the immediate, were listed by both parties, and ICD-10 attributed by a senior coder. For each cause, sensitivity and chance corrected concordance (CCC) were computed considering first the underlying causes attributed by the pathologist and PCVA, and then any CoD listed in the death certificate given by PCVA. Cause specific mortality fraction accuracy (CSMF-accuracy) and chance corrected CSMF-accuracy were computed to evaluate the PCVA performance at the populational level.Results: There was substantial variability of the sensitivities and CCC across the causes. Well-known chronic diseases with accurate diagnoses that had been informed by physicians to family members, such as various cancers, had sensitivities above 40% or 50%. However, PCVA was not effective in attributing Pneumonia, Cardiomyopathy and Leukemia/Lymphoma as underlying CoD. At populational level, the PCVA estimated cause specific mortality fractions (CSMF) may be considered close to the fractions pointed by the gold standard. The CSMF-accuracy was 0.81 and the chance corrected CSMF-accuracy was 0.49.Conclusions: The PCVA was efficient in attributing some causes individually and proved effective in estimating the CSMF, which indicates that the method is useful to establish public health priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim. According to data from the Moscow Oblast civil registry office in 2020, to analyze medical certificates of cause of death (MCCD), where the code from “Ischemic heart disease” (IHD) (I20-I25) group is indicated as underlying cause of death (UCD).Material and methods. A total of 23193 deaths with I20-I25 codes (UCDs) were included. We assessed the prevalence of individual IHD types, the frequency and patterns of complications, the average age of deceased persons, the proportion of women and men, place of death registration.Results. The average age of the deceased was 73,6±12,5 (men, 68,8±10,5; women, 78,4±12,5; p50%. Half of the deaths were registered at home, a third in a hospital, and the rest elsewhere. Taking into account age and sex, inhospital death from myocardial infarction (MI) is recorded 12 times more often than in “other forms of acute IHD”. Chronic forms of IHD were registered in 76,9% of cases; in 47,3%, such IHD form as “Atherosclerotic heart disease” was noted. The proportion of deaths from acute MI and deaths after MI was 37,3%. In 92,1% of MCCDs of “other forms of acute IHD”, “acute coronary insufficiency” is indicated. Differences in the prevalence of various IHD forms between men and women were significant (p

This study assessed the quality of cause-of-death reporting in the US before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We used the selection rate and the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) to analyze each cause identified by the National Center for Health Statistics as unsuitable for the underlying cause of death (UCOD). The selection rate was defined as the proportion of deaths with mention of a particular unsuitable UCOD on the death certificate where that cause was ultimately selected as the UCOD. Out of 36 unsuitable UCODs, 33 exhibited a significant decline in selection rates from 2019 to 2021. However, when deaths with mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate were excluded, only 19 causes revealed a significant decline. In analyses that controlled for the age of decedents, aORs in 2021 were significantly lower compared with 2019 for 26 causes, and this number decreased to 17 causes in analyses that excluded COVID-19-related deaths. In conclusion, the overall quality of COD reporting improved during the COVID-19 pandemic, attributable mainly to the fact that over one-tenth of the deaths were related to COVID-19. Yet, for deaths that did not involve COVID-19, improvements in the quality of COD reporting were less prominent for certain causes., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) does not produce estimates of heart failure (HF) since this condition is considered the common end to several diseases (i.e., garbage code). This study aims to analyze the interactions between underlying and multiple causes of death related to HF in Brazil and its geographic regions, by sex, from 2006 to 2016.Methods: Descriptive study of a historical series of death certificates (DCs) related to deaths that occurred in Brazil between 2006 and 2016, including both sexes and all age groups. To identify HF as the underlying cause of death or as a multiple cause of death, we considered the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code I50 followed by any digit. We evaluated the deaths and constructed graphs by geographic region to compare with national data.Results: We included 1,074,038 DCs issued between 2006 and 2016 that included code I50 in Parts I or II of the certificate. The frequency of HF as the multiple cause of death in both sexes was nearly three times higher than the frequency of HF as an underlying cause of death; this observation remained consistent over the years. The Southeast region had the highest number of deaths in all years (about 40,000 records) and approximately double the number in the Northeast region and more than four times the number in the North region. Codes of diseases clinically unrelated to HF, such as diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and stroke, were mentioned in 3.11, 2.62, and 1.49% of the DCs, respectively.Conclusions: When we consider HF as the underlying cause of death, we observed an important underestimation of its impact on mortality, since when analyzed as a multiple cause of death, HF is present in almost three times more deaths recorded in Brazil from 2006 to 2016. The mentioning of conditions with little association with HF at the time of the death highlights the importance of HF as a complex syndrome with multiple components that must be considered in the analysis of mortality trends for implementation of public health management programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The World Health Organization has issued international instructions for certification and classification (coding) of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) as cause of death. Central to these instructions is the selection of the underlying cause of death for a public health preventive purpose. This article focuses on two rules for this selection: (1) that a death due to COVID-19 should be counted independently of pre-existing conditions that are suspected of triggering a severe course of COVID-19 and (2) that COVID-19 should not be considered as due to anything else. The article argues that observance of the first rule may not always lead to an optimal selection from a preventive point of view and that in the future the ascertainment of an animal source of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) would make it possible to reconceptualize ‘COVID-19′ and create a zoonotic classification code by means of which a factor of a greater preventive value could be selected than what is currently possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The expanded definition of liver-related deaths includes a wide range of etiologies and sequelae. We compared the changes in liver-related mortality by etiology and sequelae for different age groups between 2008 and 2018 in the USA using both underlying and multiple cause of death (UCOD and MCOD) data. Methods: We extracted mortality data from the CDC WONDER. Both the absolute (rate difference) and relative (rate ratio and 95% confidence intervals) changes were calculated to quantify the magnitude of change using the expanded definition of liver-related mortality. Result: Using the expanded definition including secondary liver cancer and according to UCOD data, we identified 68,037 liver-related deaths among people aged 20 years and above in 2008 (29 per 100,000) and this increased to 90,635 in 2018 (33 per 100,000), a 13% increase from 2008 to 2018. However, according to MCOD data, the number of deaths was 113,219 (48 per 100,000) in 2008 and increased to 161,312 (58 per 100,000) in 2018, indicating a 20% increase. The increase according to MCOD was mainly due to increase in alcoholic liver disease and secondary liver cancer (liver metastasis) for each age group and hepatitis C virus (HCV) and primary liver cancer among decedents aged 65–74 years. Conclusion: The direction of mortality change (increasing or decreasing) was similar in UCOD and MCOD data in most etiologies and sequelae, except secondary liver cancer. However, the extent of change differed between UCOD and MCOD data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the ongoing pandemic, death statistics influence people’s feelings and government policy. But when does COVID-19 qualify as the cause of death? As philosophers of medicine interested in conceptual clarification, we address the question by analyzing the World Health Organization’s rules for the certification of death. We show that for COVID-19, WHO rules take into account both facts (causal chains) and values (the importance of prevention). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Accurately filling out death certificates is essential for death surveillance. However, manually determining the underlying cause of death is often imprecise. In this study, we investigate the Wide and Deep framework as a method to improve the accuracy and reliability of inferring the underlying cause of death., Methods: Death report data from national-level cause of death surveillance sites in Fujian Province from 2016 to 2022, involving 403,547 deaths, were analyzed. The Wide and Deep embedded with Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) was developed. Model performance was assessed using weighted accuracy, weighted precision, weighted recall, and weighted area under the curve (AUC). A comparison was made with XGBoost, CNN, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Transformer, and GRU with Attention., Results: The Wide and Deep achieved strong performance metrics on the test set: precision of 95.75%, recall of 92.08%, F1 Score of 93.78%, and an AUC of 95.99%. The model also displayed specific F1 Scores for different cause-of-death chain lengths: 97.13% for single causes, 95.08% for double causes, 91.24% for triple causes, and 79.50% for quadruple causes., Conclusions: The Wide and Deep significantly enhances the ability to determine the root causes of death, providing a valuable tool for improving cause-of-death surveillance quality. Integrating artificial intelligence (AI) in this field is anticipated to streamline death registration and reporting procedures, thereby boosting the precision of public health data., Competing Interests: No conflicts of interest., (Copyright and License information: Editorial Office of CCDCW, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention 2024.)

Of patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB),

Objectives: Errors and misreporting on death certificates are common, along with potential inaccuracies in cause-of-death coding. We characterized and compared fatalities by animal-encounter mentions reported as underlying cause of death (UCD) with animal-encounter mentions reported as multiple cause of death (MCD) to determine factors associated with misreporting UCD. Methods: We analyzed fatality data from 1999-2016 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research by UCD and MCD animal-encounter mentions (International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes W53-59, X20-27 and X29, T63.0-63.6, T63.8-63.9, and T78.2-78.4). We examined differences in reporting by age, sex, race, autopsy (yes, no, unknown), allergic reactions, and toxicities. Results: The number of animal-encounter mentions by UCD was 3638 (202 average per year) and by MCD was 4280 (238 average per year), a difference of 18% (n = 642; 36 average per year) by MCD analysis. The number of nonvenomous animal-encounter mentions increased 20% (from 2138 UCD to 2567 MCD), and the number of venomous animal-encounter mentions increased 14% (from 1500 UCD to 1713 MCD). Decedents aged ≥65 had the highest additional number of animal-encounter mentions among all age groups, primarily encounters with other reptiles (n = 113), other mammals (n = 71), and dogs (n = 42). Of 642 MCD additional animal-encounter mentions, heart disease (n = 211, 33%) and infections (n = 146, 23%) represented more than half of the UCD. Of 553 dog-encounter fatalities, 165 (30%) were among children aged ≤4. Conclusions: Animal-encounter fatalities, analyzed by UCD alone, may be underreported. An initiating animal injury, complicated by comorbidities and fatality, may obscure the causal chain, resulting in misreporting UCD. Ongoing training for medical certifiers is recommended, highlighting accurate identification of UCD and contributing causes in the causal chain of death. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to investigate factors associated with unspecified and ill-defined causes of death in the State of Amazonas (AM), Brazil. This is a cross-sectional study on 90,439 non-fetal deaths of residents in AM from 2006 to 2012. The hierarchical multinomial logistic model estimated odds ratios of unspecified and ill-defined causes of death. Ill-defined and unspecified causes of death proportional mortality was, respectively, 16.6% and 9.1%. Ill-defined causes showed a decreasing trend over the years, while unspecified causes only decreased in the last two years. Unspecified causes of death were associated with residence and death outside the capital, public roads, female gender, age group 10-49 years, brown skin color and when certified by forensic doctors. Ill-defined causes of death were associated with residence and occurrence outside capital, at home, ages 40 years and older, non-whites, not being single, low schooling, under medical care and when examiner was unknown. Ill-defined and unspecified cause mortality in the State of Amazonas decreased between 2006 and 2012 in AM and was associated with space and time, demographic and socioeconomic factors and medical care at the moment of death. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

(1) Background: The prevalence of opioid use in Taiwan increased by 41% between 2002 and 2014. However, little is known regarding the risk of mortality among long-term opioid analgesics users who do not have cancer. This study investigated this mortality risk with an emphasis on the calendar year and patients’ age and sex. (2) Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 12,990 adult individuals without cancer who were long-term users of opioid analgesics and were randomly selected from the data set of Taiwan’s National Health Insurance program from 2000 to 2012. They were then followed up through 2013. Information on the underlying causes of death was retrieved from the Taiwan Death Registry. Age, sex, and calendar year-standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) of all-cause and cause-specific mortality were calculated with reference to those of the general population. (3) Results: With up to 14 years of follow-up, 558 individuals had all-cause mortality in 48,020 person-years (cumulative mortality: 4.3%, mortality rate: 11.62 per 1000 person-years). Compared with the general population, the all-cause SMR of 4.30 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 3.95–4.66) was significantly higher: it was higher in men than in women, declined with calendar year and age, and was significantly higher for both natural (4.15, 95% CI: 3.78–4.53) and unnatural (5.04, 95% CI: 3.88–6.45) causes. (4) Conclusions: Long-term opioid analgesics use among individuals without cancer in Taiwan was associated with a significantly increased risk of mortality. The notably increased mortality in younger adults warrants attention. Strategies to reduce long-term opioid analgesics use, especially their overuse or misuse, are in an urgent need.

Background: Shortly after the detection of the COVID virus in January 2020 the US Government introduced and enforced a series of restrictions to protect the elderly from a "deadly virus" and the "pandemic of the century". Persons who disagreed were silenced and punished., Objective: In the 15th month of COVID epidemic (April 2021), we have access to sufficient statistical data and methods to better understand the nature, origin of the COVID pandemic. It is now possible to reliably evaluate the effectiveness of the restrictions and the human factors/driving forces behind this drastic limitation of our natural freedom in this country., Methods: Publicly available epidemiological and population parameters were collected and analyzed using the 'political score' and 'restriction ranking' of 50 states and evaluated by simple and usual statistical methods, mainly correlation analyses. The Political Score of the States (D/R) is the ratio of the number of citizens who self-identified as democrats (D) or republicans (R). The political scores of the 50 states altogether defined a wide, continuous scale, the political scale, that could be used to measure (and statistically evaluate) the effect of politics of a state on the numerical parameters of that state, including population and epidemiologic parameters.The COVID Restriction Score of the States were created to rank the states from 1-50, there 1 is the lowest number of restrictions and 50 is the highest number of restrictions applied by the States. It was based on 13 different key metrics., Results: This study revealed, that 1) restrictions reduced the number of viral infections, but 2) they totally failed to reduce the number of supposedly COVID related deaths, expressed as mortality, 3) they increased (SIC!) the lethality of coronavirus. The grade of restrictions were/are strongly associated to the 4) left/right political ratio of the States, there States with more democrat citizens practiced more restrictions. It was found that race, religion and Medicare/healthcare spending have significant influence on politic as well as on the grade of restriction orders. Factors moving States toward the political left and harder COVID restrictions have 5) larger 'non-white' population, 6) larger number of 'non-protestant' believers, 7) larger Jewish population, and 8) more generous Medicare/healthcare spending. It was not possible to see any influence of the size of the 9) senior (65+) population [i.e. those who are allegedly the most vulnerable and are mostly in need of protective restrictions] neither on the States politic nor on the restrictions., Conclusions: The degree of restrictions enforced by different states ware not primarily determined by biological or epidemiological factors (like number of elderly, say 65+ in the state) but by social, political influences instead. Political (a), religious (b) ethnic (c) and economic (d) forces represented the decisive forces on the state's restrictive orders and not the convincing evidence of the potentially harmful effects of the COVID infection and the well-founded adequacy of the defense against it., Competing Interests: Conflict of Interest Disclosures The author thereby declare they have no competing interest.

Background Postmortem minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) is a potential alternative to the gold standard complete diagnostic autopsy for identifying specific causes of childhood deaths. We investigated the utility of MITS, interpreted with available clinical data, for attributing underlying and immediate causes of neonatal deaths. Methods This prospective, observational pilot study enrolled neonatal deaths at Chris Hani Baragwanath Academic Hospital in Soweto, South Africa. The MITS included needle core-biopsy sampling for histopathology of brain, lung, and liver tissue. Microbiological culture and/or molecular tests were performed on lung, liver, blood, cerebrospinal fluid, and stool samples. The "underlying" and "immediate" causes of death (CoD) were determined for each case by an international panel of 12–15 medical specialists. Results We enrolled 153 neonatal deaths, 106 aged 3–28 days. Leading underlying CoD included "complications of prematurity" (52.9%), "complications of intrapartum events" (15.0%), "congenital malformations" (13.1%), and "infection related" (9.8%). Overall, infections were the immediate or underlying CoD in 57.5% (n = 88) of all neonatal deaths, including the immediate CoD in 70.4% (58/81) of neonates with "complications of prematurity" as the underlying cause. Overall, 74.4% of 90 infection-related deaths were hospital acquired, mainly due to multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (52.2%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (22.4%), and Staphylococcus aureus (20.9%). Streptococcus agalactiae was the most common pathogen (5/15 [33.3%]) among deaths with "infections" as the underlying cause. Conclusions MITS has potential to address the knowledge gap on specific causes of neonatal mortality. In our setting, this included the hitherto underrecognized dominant role of hospital-acquired multidrug-resistant bacterial infections as the leading immediate cause of neonatal deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Introduction: Traffic accidents represent a relevant global public health problem and are associated with behavioral factors, vehicle maintenance, urban space precariousness and traffic surveillance. They are important causes of morbidity and mortality due to the increasing number of vehicles and changes in lifestyle and risk behaviors in the general population. Objective: To analyze mortality numbers due to land transport accidents reported in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, before and after the decline of average speed of motor vehicles. Methods: A study of temporal series was carried out using official database provided by the Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. Data was collected according to the type of occurrence and place of residence in São Paulo, SP, Brazil. Other sources of data were Death Certificates. Population data was collected by the foundation SEADE for the other years used, and data from 2010 was collected by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística do Brasil (IBGE), the Brazilian institute of geography and statistics. More death data has been collected using the tenth review of the WHO International Classification of Diseases (V00-V89) for overall population and were stratified in age groups (<10 years, 10-19 years, 20-49 years, 50 years and more), city (São Paulo) and the year timetable (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016). The data was calculated based on plain death rate and standardized, for gender and age group. The measures of mortality were used for the construction of temporal series by the regression model of Prais-Winsten. All the analysis were made through the statistics program Stata 14.0. Results: Reportedly, 7288 deaths occurred due to land accidents in São Paulo, the state's capital, between 2010 and 2016. The higher proportion of deaths happened between men with age between 20-49 years, brownish skin color, marital status single, between 4 e 7 years of study. 72.55% of deaths happened within of hospitals and/or other health establishments. The deaths ranged 1.200 in 2010 and went down to 779 in 2016. The standard mortality for transport accidents between 2010 and 2016 fluctuated from 10.04 to 6.29 for every 100 thousand inhabitants. Conclusion: There was a decrease in deaths related to traffic accidents in individuals over 20 years of age. After the reduction of the average speed of motor vehicles in the city of São Paulo, the decline in mortality due to traffic accidents was more pronounced among individuals aged 50 years or older, with significant differences for men and women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cause of death (COD) information taken from death certificates is often inaccurate and incomplete. However, the accuracy of Underlying CODs (UCODs) recorded on death certificates has not been comprehensively described when multiple diseases are present. Methods: A total of 450 consecutive autopsies performed at a geriatric hospital in Japan between February 2000 and August 2002 were studied. We evaluated the concordance rate, sensitivity, and specificity of major UCODs (cancer, heart disease, and pneumonia) reported on death certificates compared with a reference standard of pathologist assessment based on autopsy data and clinical records. Logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the effect of sex, age, comorbidity, and UCODs on misclassification. Results: The concordance rate was relatively high for cancer (81%) but low for heart disease (55%) and pneumonia (9%). The overall concordance rate was 48%. Sex and comorbidity did not affect UCOD misclassification rates, which tended to increase with patient age, although the association with age was also not significant. The strongest factor for misclassification was UCODs (P < 0.0001). Sensitivity and specificity for cancer were very high (80% and 96%, respectively), but sensitivity for heart disease and pneumonia was 60% and 46%, respectively. Specificity for each UCOD was more than 85%. Conclusions: Researchers should be aware of the accuracy of COD data from death certificates used as research resources, especially for cases of elderly patients with pneumonia.

Background: In 2021, the European Union reported >270,000 excess deaths, including >16,000 in Portugal. The Portuguese Directorate-General of Health developed a deep neural network, AUTOCOD, which determines the primary causes of death by analyzing the free text of physicians' death certificates (DCs). Although AUTOCOD's performance has been established, it remains unclear whether its performance remains consistent over time, particularly during periods of excess mortality., Objective: This study aims to assess the sensitivity and other performance metrics of AUTOCOD in classifying underlying causes of death compared with manual coding to identify specific causes of death during periods of excess mortality., Methods: We included all DCs between 2016 and 2019. AUTOCOD's performance was evaluated by calculating various performance metrics, such as sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and F 1 -score, using a confusion matrix. This compared International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Health-Related Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10), classifications of DCs by AUTOCOD with those by human coders at the Directorate-General of Health (gold standard). Subsequently, we compared periods without excess mortality with periods of excess, severe, and extreme excess mortality. We defined excess mortality as 2 consecutive days with a Z score above the 95% baseline limit, severe excess mortality as 2 consecutive days with a Z score >4 SDs, and extreme excess mortality as 2 consecutive days with a Z score >6 SDs. Finally, we repeated the analyses for the 3 most common ICD-10 chapters focusing on block-level classification., Results: We analyzed a large data set comprising 330,098 DCs classified by both human coders and AUTOCOD. AUTOCOD demonstrated high sensitivity (≥0.75) for 10 ICD-10 chapters examined, with values surpassing 0.90 for the more prevalent chapters (chapter II-"Neoplasms," chapter IX-"Diseases of the circulatory system," and chapter X-"Diseases of the respiratory system"), accounting for 67.69% (223,459/330,098) of all human-coded causes of death. No substantial differences were observed in these high-sensitivity values when comparing periods without excess mortality with periods of excess, severe, and extreme excess mortality. The same holds for specificity, which exceeded 0.96 for all chapters examined, and for PPV, which surpassed 0.75 in 9 chapters, including the more prevalent ones. When considering block classification within the 3 most common ICD-10 chapters, AUTOCOD maintained a high performance, demonstrating high sensitivity (≥0.75) for 13 ICD-10 blocks, high PPV for 9 blocks, and specificity of >0.98 in all blocks, with no significant differences between periods without excess mortality and those with excess mortality., Conclusions: Our findings indicate that, during periods of excess and extreme excess mortality, AUTOCOD's performance remains unaffected by potential text quality degradation because of pressure on health services. Consequently, AUTOCOD can be dependably used for real-time cause-specific mortality surveillance even in extreme excess mortality situations., (©Patrícia Pita Ferreira, Diogo Godinho Simões, Constança Pinto de Carvalho, Francisco Duarte, Eugénia Fernandes, Pedro Casaca Carvalho, José Francisco Loff, Ana Paula Soares, Maria João Albuquerque, Pedro Pinto-Leite, André Peralta-Santos. Originally published in JMIR AI (https://ai.jmir.org), 22.11.2023.)

Objectives The proportion of deaths attributed to hypertensive diseases (HYPDs) was only 50% of that registered for cerebrovascular diseases (CBVDs) in 2013 in Brazil. This article aims to evaluate mortality related to HYPDs and CBVDs as multiple causes of death, in Brazil from 2004 to 2013. Study design Analysis of historical series of secondary data obtained from Brazilian official registries. Methods Data about the deaths were obtained from the Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health, available on the DATASUS website. CBVDs and HYPDs were evaluated according to their mentions as the underlying cause of death or entry in any line of the death certificates (DCs), according to their International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision codes. Results When CBVDs were the underlying causes of death, HYPDs were mentioned in 40.9% of the DCs. When HYPDs were the underlying causes of death, CBVDs were mentioned in only 5.0%. When CBVDs were mentioned without HYPDs, they were selected as the underlying cause of death 74.4% of the time. When HYPDs were mentioned in DCs without CBVDs, HYPDs were selected 30.0% of the time. In 2004, the frequency of any mention of HYPDs relative to the frequency of HYPDs cited as underlying causes increased fourfold and was followed by a plateau until 2013. In contrast, the frequency of any mention of CBVDs relative to the frequency of CBVDs as underlying causes decreased in the same period. Because this study was based on DC records, it was limited by the way these documents were completed, which may have included lack of record of the causes related to the sequence that culminated in death. Conclusion When deaths related to HYPDs were evaluated as multiple causes of death, they were mentioned up to four times more often than when they were selected as underlying causes of death. This reinforces the need for better control of hypertension to prevent deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]