Search

The NANOGrav 15-year data provides compelling evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background at nanohertz frequencies. The simplest model-independent approach to characterizing the frequency spectrum of this signal consists in a simple power-law fit involving two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index \gamma. In this paper, we consider the next logical step beyond this minimal spectral model, allowing for a running (i.e., logarithmic frequency dependence) of the spectral index, \gamma_run(f) = \gamma + \beta \ln(f/f_ref). We fit this running-power-law (RPL) model to the NANOGrav 15-year data and perform a Bayesian model comparison with the minimal constant-power-law (CPL) model, which results in a 95% credible interval for the parameter \beta consistent with no running, \beta \in [-0.80,2.96], and an inconclusive Bayes factor, B(RPL vs. CPL) = 0.69 +- 0.01. We thus conclude that, at present, the minimal CPL model still suffices to adequately describe the NANOGrav signal; however, future data sets may well lead to a measurement of nonzero \beta. Finally, we interpret the RPL model as a description of primordial GWs generated during cosmic inflation, which allows us to combine our results with upper limits from big-bang nucleosynthesis, the cosmic microwave background, and LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA., Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables

Pulsar-timing-array experiments have reported evidence for a stochastic background of nanohertz gravitational waves consistent with the signal expected from a population of supermassive--black-hole binaries. Those analyses assume power-law spectra for intrinsic pulsar noise and for the background, as well as a Hellings--Downs cross-correlation pattern among the gravitational-wave--induced residuals across pulsars. These assumptions are idealizations that may not be realized in actuality. We test them in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set using Bayesian posterior predictive checks: after fitting our fiducial model to real data, we generate a population of simulated data-set replications, and use them to assess whether the optimal-statistic significance, inter-pulsar correlations, and spectral coefficients assume extreme values for the real data when compared to the replications. We confirm that the NANOGrav 15 yr data set is consistent with power-law and Hellings--Downs assumptions. We also evaluate the evidence for the stochastic background using posterior-predictive versions of the frequentist optimal statistic and of Bayesian model comparison, and find comparable significance (3.2\ $\sigma$ and 3\ $\sigma$ respectively) to what was previously reported for the standard statistics. We conclude with novel visualizations of the reconstructed gravitational waveforms that enter the residuals for each pulsar. Our analysis strengthens confidence in the identification and characterization of the gravitational-wave background as reported by NANOGrav., Comment: 20 pages, 14 Figures

The cosmic merger history of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) is expected to produce a low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB). Here we investigate how signs of the discrete nature of this GWB can manifest in pulsar timing arrays through excursions from, and breaks in, the expected $f_{\mathrm{GW}}^{-2/3}$ power-law of the GWB strain spectrum. To do this, we create a semi-analytic SMBHB population model, fit to NANOGrav's 15 yr GWB amplitude, and with 1,000 realizations we study the populations' characteristic strain and residual spectra. Comparing our models to the NANOGrav 15 yr spectrum, we find two interesting excursions from the power-law. The first, at $2 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is below our GWB realizations with $p$-value significance $p = 0.05$ to $0.06$ ($\approx 1.8 \sigma - 1.9 \sigma$). The second, at $16 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is above our GWB realizations with $p = 0.04$ to $0.15$ ($\approx 1.4 \sigma - 2.1 \sigma$). We explore the properties of a loud SMBHB which could cause such an excursion. Our simulations also show that the expected number of SMBHBs decreases by three orders of magnitude, from $\sim 10^6$ to $\sim 10^3$, between $2\; \mathrm{nHz}$ and $20 \; \mathrm{nHz}$. This causes a break in the strain spectrum as the stochasticity of the background breaks down at $26^{+28}_{-19} \; \mathrm{nHz}$, consistent with predictions pre-dating GWB measurements. The diminished GWB signal from SMBHBs at frequencies above the $26$~nHz break opens a window for PTAs to detect continuous GWs from individual SMBHBs or GWs from the early universe., Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, 1 appendix, submitted to ApJ

In the recent years, primordial black holes (PBHs) have emerged as one of the most interesting and hotly debated topics in cosmology. Among other possibilities, PBHs could explain both some of the signals from binary black hole mergers observed in gravitational wave detectors and an important component of the dark matter in the Universe. Significant progress has been achieved both on the theory side and from the point of view of observations, including new models and more accurate calculations of PBH formation, evolution, clustering, merger rates, as well as new astrophysical and cosmological probes. In this work, we review, analyse and combine the latest developments in order to perform end-to-end calculations of the various gravitational wave signatures of PBHs. Different ways to distinguish PBHs from stellar black holes are emphasized. Finally, we discuss their detectability with LISA, the first planned gravitational-wave observatory in space., Comment: 161 pages, 47 figures, comments welcome

Recently we found compelling evidence for a gravitational wave background with Hellings and Downs (HD) correlations in our 15-year data set. These correlations describe gravitational waves as predicted by general relativity, which has two transverse polarization modes. However, more general metric theories of gravity can have additional polarization modes which produce different interpulsar correlations. In this work we search the NANOGrav 15-year data set for evidence of a gravitational wave background with quadrupolar Hellings and Downs (HD) and Scalar Transverse (ST) correlations. We find that HD correlations are the best fit to the data, and no significant evidence in favor of ST correlations. While Bayes factors show strong evidence for a correlated signal, the data does not strongly prefer either correlation signature, with Bayes factors $\sim 2$ when comparing HD to ST correlations, and $\sim 1$ for HD plus ST correlations to HD correlations alone. However, when modeled alongside HD correlations, the amplitude and spectral index posteriors for ST correlations are uninformative, with the HD process accounting for the vast majority of the total signal. Using the optimal statistic, a frequentist technique that focuses on the pulsar-pair cross-correlations, we find median signal-to-noise-ratios of 5.0 for HD and 4.6 for ST correlations when fit for separately, and median signal-to-noise-ratios of 3.5 for HD and 3.0 for ST correlations when fit for simultaneously. While the signal-to-noise-ratios for each of the correlations are comparable, the estimated amplitude and spectral index for HD are a significantly better fit to the total signal, in agreement with our Bayesian analysis., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures

The radio galaxy 3C 66B has been hypothesized to host a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) at its center based on electromagnetic observations. Its apparent 1.05-year period and low redshift ($\sim0.02$) make it an interesting testbed to search for low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) using Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) experiments. This source has been subjected to multiple searches for continuous GWs from a circular SMBHB, resulting in progressively more stringent constraints on its GW amplitude and chirp mass. In this paper, we develop a pipeline for performing Bayesian targeted searches for eccentric SMBHBs in PTA data sets, and test its efficacy by applying it on simulated data sets with varying injected signal strengths. We also search for a realistic eccentric SMBHB source in 3C 66B using the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set employing PTA signal models containing Earth term-only as well as Earth+Pulsar term contributions using this pipeline. Due to limitations in our PTA signal model, we get meaningful results only when the initial eccentricity $e_0<0.5$ and the symmetric mass ratio $\eta>0.1$. We find no evidence for an eccentric SMBHB signal in our data, and therefore place 95% upper limits on the PTA signal amplitude of $88.1\pm3.7$ ns for the Earth term-only and $81.74\pm0.86$ ns for the Earth+Pulsar term searches for $e_0<0.5$ and $\eta>0.1$. Similar 95% upper limits on the chirp mass are $(1.98 \pm 0.05) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$ and $(1.81 \pm 0.01) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$. These upper limits, while less stringent than those calculated from a circular binary search in the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set, are consistent with the SMBHB model of 3C 66B developed from electromagnetic observations., Comment: 27 Pages, 10 Figures, 1 Table, Accepted for publication in ApJ

Analysis of pulsar timing data have provided evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background in the nHz frequency band. The most plausible source of such a background is the superposition of signals from millions of supermassive black hole binaries. The standard statistical techniques used to search for such a background and assess its significance make several simplifying assumptions, namely: i) Gaussianity; ii) isotropy; and most often iii) a power-law spectrum. However, a stochastic background from a finite collection of binaries does not exactly satisfy any of these assumptions. To understand the effect of these assumptions, we test standard analysis techniques on a large collection of realistic simulated datasets. The dataset length, observing schedule, and noise levels were chosen to emulate the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. Simulated signals from millions of binaries drawn from models based on the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamical simulation were added to the data. We find that the standard statistical methods perform remarkably well on these simulated datasets, despite their fundamental assumptions not being strictly met. They are able to achieve a confident detection of the background. However, even for a fixed set of astrophysical parameters, different realizations of the universe result in a large variance in the significance and recovered parameters of the background. We also find that the presence of loud individual binaries can bias the spectral recovery of the background if we do not account for them., Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, version matching published paper

We present the results of a Bayesian search for gravitational wave (GW) memory in the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data set. We find no convincing evidence for any gravitational wave memory signals in this data set (Bayes factor = 2.8). As such, we go on to place upper limits on the strain amplitude of GW memory events as a function of sky location and event epoch. These upper limits are computed using a signal model that assumes the existence of a common, spatially uncorrelated red noise in addition to a GW memory signal. The median strain upper limit as a function of sky position is approximately $3.3 \times 10^{-14}$. We also find that there are some differences in the upper limits as a function of sky position centered around PSR J0613$-$0200. This suggests that this pulsar has some excess noise which can be confounded with GW memory. Finally, the upper limits as a function of burst epoch continue to improve at later epochs. This improvement is attributable to the continued growth of the pulsar timing array., Comment: 29 pages, 5 figures

We demonstrate that the recently announced signal for a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) from pulsar timing array (PTA) observations, if attributed to new physics, is compatible with primordial GW production due to axion-gauge dynamics during inflation. More specifically we find that axion-$U(1)$ models may lead to sufficient particle production to explain the signal while simultaneously source some fraction of sub-solar mass primordial black holes (PBHs) as a signature. Moreover there is a parity violation in GW sector, hence the model suggests chiral GW search as a concrete target for future. We further analyze the axion-$SU(2)$ coupling signatures and find that in the low/mild backreaction regime, it is incapable of producing PTA evidence and the tensor-to-scalar ratio is low at the peak, hence it overproduces scalar perturbations and PBHs., Comment: 2 figures, total 8 pages, published in PLB

This paper presents rigorous tests of pulsar timing array methods and software, examining their consistency across a wide range of injected parameters and signal strength. We discuss updates to the 15-year isotropic gravitational-wave background analyses and their corresponding code representations. Descriptions of the internal structure of the flagship algorithms \texttt{Enterprise} and \texttt{PTMCMCSampler} are given to facilitate understanding of the PTA likelihood structure, how models are built, and what methods are currently used in sampling the high-dimensional PTA parameter space. We introduce a novel version of the PTA likelihood that uses a two-step marginalization procedure that performs much faster when the white noise parameters remain fixed. We perform stringent tests of consistency and correctness of the Bayesian and frequentist analysis software. For the Bayesian analysis, we test prior recovery, injection recovery, and Bayes factors. For the frequentist analysis, we test that the cross-correlation-based optimal statistic, when modified to account for a non-negligible gravitational-wave background, accurately recovers the amplitude of the background. We also summarize recent advances and tests performed on the optimal statistic in the literature from both GWB detection and parameter estimation perspectives. The tests presented here validate current and future analyses of PTA data., Comment: 30 pages, 10 figures, 1 table; Companion paper to "The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Evidence for a Gravitational-Wave Background"; For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

Evidence for a low-frequency stochastic gravitational wave background has recently been reported based on analyses of pulsar timing array data. The most likely source of such a background is a population of supermassive black hole binaries, the loudest of which may be individually detected in these datasets. Here we present the search for individual supermassive black hole binaries in the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. We introduce several new techniques, which enhance the efficiency and modeling accuracy of the analysis. The search uncovered weak evidence for two candidate signals, one with a gravitational-wave frequency of $\sim$4 nHz, and another at $\sim$170 nHz. The significance of the low-frequency candidate was greatly diminished when Hellings-Downs correlations were included in the background model. The high-frequency candidate was discounted due to the lack of a plausible host galaxy, the unlikely astrophysical prior odds of finding such a source, and since most of its support comes from a single pulsar with a commensurate binary period. Finding no compelling evidence for signals from individual binary systems, we place upper limits on the strain amplitude of gravitational waves emitted by such systems., Comment: 23 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) has reported evidence for the presence of an isotropic nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB) in its 15 yr dataset. However, if the GWB is produced by a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) systems, then the background is predicted to be anisotropic, depending on the distribution of these systems in the local Universe and the statistical properties of the SMBHB population. In this work, we search for anisotropy in the GWB using multiple methods and bases to describe the distribution of the GWB power on the sky. We do not find significant evidence of anisotropy, and place a Bayesian $95\%$ upper limit on the level of broadband anisotropy such that $(C_{l>0} / C_{l=0}) < 20\%$. We also derive conservative estimates on the anisotropy expected from a random distribution of SMBHB systems using astrophysical simulations conditioned on the isotropic GWB inferred in the 15-yr dataset, and show that this dataset has sufficient sensitivity to probe a large fraction of the predicted level of anisotropy. We end by highlighting the opportunities and challenges in searching for anisotropy in pulsar timing array data., Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures; submitted to Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

The NANOGrav 15-year data set shows evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). While many physical processes can source such low-frequency gravitational waves, here we analyze the signal as coming from a population of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries distributed throughout the Universe. We show that astrophysically motivated models of SMBH binary populations are able to reproduce both the amplitude and shape of the observed low-frequency gravitational-wave spectrum. While multiple model variations are able to reproduce the GWB spectrum at our current measurement precision, our results highlight the importance of accurately modeling binary evolution for producing realistic GWB spectra. Additionally, while reasonable parameters are able to reproduce the 15-year observations, the implied GWB amplitude necessitates either a large number of parameters to be at the edges of expected values, or a small number of parameters to be notably different from standard expectations. While we are not yet able to definitively establish the origin of the inferred GWB signal, the consistency of the signal with astrophysical expectations offers a tantalizing prospect for confirming that SMBH binaries are able to form, reach sub-parsec separations, and eventually coalesce. As the significance grows over time, higher-order features of the GWB spectrum will definitively determine the nature of the GWB and allow for novel constraints on SMBH populations., Comment: Accepted by Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org. Edited to fix two equation typos (Eq.13 & 21), and minor text typos

The 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) shows positive evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave (GW) background. In this paper, we investigate potential cosmological interpretations of this signal, specifically cosmic inflation, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, cosmic strings, and domain walls. We find that, with the exception of stable cosmic strings of field theory origin, all these models can reproduce the observed signal. When compared to the standard interpretation in terms of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), many cosmological models seem to provide a better fit resulting in Bayes factors in the range from 10 to 100. However, these results strongly depend on modeling assumptions about the cosmic SMBHB population and, at this stage, should not be regarded as evidence for new physics. Furthermore, we identify excluded parameter regions where the predicted GW signal from cosmological sources significantly exceeds the NANOGrav signal. These parameter constraints are independent of the origin of the NANOGrav signal and illustrate how pulsar timing data provide a new way to constrain the parameter space of these models. Finally, we search for deterministic signals produced by models of ultralight dark matter (ULDM) and dark matter substructures in the Milky Way. We find no evidence for either of these signals and thus report updated constraints on these models. In the case of ULDM, these constraints outperform torsion balance and atomic clock constraints for ULDM coupled to electrons, muons, or gluons., Comment: 74 pages, 31 figures, 4 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are galactic-scale gravitational wave detectors. Each individual arm, composed of a millisecond pulsar, a radio telescope, and a kiloparsecs-long path, differs in its properties but, in aggregate, can be used to extract low-frequency gravitational wave (GW) signals. We present a noise and sensitivity analysis to accompany the NANOGrav 15-year data release and associated papers, along with an in-depth introduction to PTA noise models. As a first step in our analysis, we characterize each individual pulsar data set with three types of white noise parameters and two red noise parameters. These parameters, along with the timing model and, particularly, a piecewise-constant model for the time-variable dispersion measure, determine the sensitivity curve over the low-frequency GW band we are searching. We tabulate information for all of the pulsars in this data release and present some representative sensitivity curves. We then combine the individual pulsar sensitivities using a signal-to-noise-ratio statistic to calculate the global sensitivity of the PTA to a stochastic background of GWs, obtaining a minimum noise characteristic strain of $7\times 10^{-15}$ at 5 nHz. A power law-integrated analysis shows rough agreement with the amplitudes recovered in NANOGrav's 15-year GW background analysis. While our phenomenological noise model does not model all known physical effects explicitly, it provides an accurate characterization of the noise in the data while preserving sensitivity to multiple classes of GW signals., Comment: 67 pages, 73 figures, 3 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

We present observations and timing analyses of 68 millisecond pulsars (MSPs) comprising the 15-year data set of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). NANOGrav is a pulsar timing array (PTA) experiment that is sensitive to low-frequency gravitational waves. This is NANOGrav's fifth public data release, including both "narrowband" and "wideband" time-of-arrival (TOA) measurements and corresponding pulsar timing models. We have added 21 MSPs and extended our timing baselines by three years, now spanning nearly 16 years for some of our sources. The data were collected using the Arecibo Observatory, the Green Bank Telescope, and the Very Large Array between frequencies of 327 MHz and 3 GHz, with most sources observed approximately monthly. A number of notable methodological and procedural changes were made compared to our previous data sets. These improve the overall quality of the TOA data set and are part of the transition to new pulsar timing and PTA analysis software packages. For the first time, our data products are accompanied by a full suite of software to reproduce data reduction, analysis, and results. Our timing models include a variety of newly detected astrometric and binary pulsar parameters, including several significant improvements to pulsar mass constraints. We find that the time series of 23 pulsars contain detectable levels of red noise, 10 of which are new measurements. In this data set, we find evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave background., Comment: 90 pages, 74 figures, 6 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

We report multiple lines of evidence for a stochastic signal that is correlated among 67 pulsars from the 15-year pulsar-timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. The correlations follow the Hellings-Downs pattern expected for a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The presence of such a gravitational-wave background with a power-law-spectrum is favored over a model with only independent pulsar noises with a Bayes factor in excess of $10^{14}$, and this same model is favored over an uncorrelated common power-law-spectrum model with Bayes factors of 200-1000, depending on spectral modeling choices. We have built a statistical background distribution for these latter Bayes factors using a method that removes inter-pulsar correlations from our data set, finding $p = 10^{-3}$ (approx. $3\sigma$) for the observed Bayes factors in the null no-correlation scenario. A frequentist test statistic built directly as a weighted sum of inter-pulsar correlations yields $p = 5 \times 10^{-5} - 1.9 \times 10^{-4}$ (approx. $3.5 - 4\sigma$). Assuming a fiducial $f^{-2/3}$ characteristic-strain spectrum, as appropriate for an ensemble of binary supermassive black-hole inspirals, the strain amplitude is $2.4^{+0.7}_{-0.6} \times 10^{-15}$ (median + 90% credible interval) at a reference frequency of 1/(1 yr). The inferred gravitational-wave background amplitude and spectrum are consistent with astrophysical expectations for a signal from a population of supermassive black-hole binaries, although more exotic cosmological and astrophysical sources cannot be excluded. The observation of Hellings-Downs correlations points to the gravitational-wave origin of this signal., Comment: 30 pages, 18 figures. Published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

We obtain the accretion, evaporation and superradiance phase diagram of astrophysical and primordial black holes in the mass range $10^{-33}-10^{11} \, M_\odot $. This black hole mass range corresponds to production of $10^{-21} - 10^{21}$ eV particles for superradiance (bosons) and evaporation (bosons and fermions). Only accretion and superradiance processes are relevant for heavy black holes, on the other hand for light black holes of primordial origin, all three processes can be relevant. We find that superradiance instability can happen even for black hole spin values as low as $10^{-9}-10^{-2}$. Since light black holes are very unstable to these perturbations and sensitive probes of bosonic particles, a single moderately spinning BH can probe 2-9 orders of magnitude of mass parameter space depending on the nature of the perturbations that are scalar (axion), vector (dark photon and/or photon with effective mass) and spin-2. If spinning black holes are observed, namely superradiance is not observed, due to self-interactions, we find limits on the axion decay constant and energy density., Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are sensitive to oscillations in the gravitational potential along the line-of-sight due to ultralight particle pressure. We calculate the probing power of PTAs for ultralight bosons across all frequencies, from those larger than the inverse observation time to those smaller than the inverse distance to the pulsar. We show that since the signal amplitude grows comparably to the degradation in PTA sensitivity at frequencies smaller than inverse observation time, the discovery potential can be extended towards lower masses by over three decades, maintaining high precision. We demonstrate that, in the mass range $10^{-26} -10^{-23}$ eV, existing 15-year PTA data can robustly detect or rule out an ultralight component down to $O(1 - 10)\%$ of the total dark matter. Non-detection, together with other bounds in different mass ranges, will imply that ultralight scalar/axion can comprise at most $1-10\%$ of dark matter in the $10^{-30}\!-\!10^{-17}$ eV range. With 30 years of observation, current PTAs can extend the reach down to $0.1-1 \%$, while next-generation PTAs such as SKA can attain the $0.01-0.1\%$ precision. We generalize the analysis and derive predictions for ultralight spin-1 vector (i.e. dark photon) and spin-2 tensor dark components., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, accepted by PLB

One of the toughest challenges in modern cosmology is to probe the small scales $k \sim 0.5\,$Mpc$^{-1}$ in the matter power spectrum and clustering. We show that such small scales will be accessible via upcoming line-intensity mapping surveys, with carbon monoxide (CO) emission from star-forming galaxies at high redshifts as an example. While these galaxies cannot be individually detected and the two-point correlations of the intensity fluctuation maps is not accessible at these scales, the voxel intensity distribution (VID) of the highly non-Gaussian intensity maps is sensitive to the integrated emission from faint sources. As we describe, the main limitations are due to uncertainties related with the halo mass function and the CO emission model. We show that via the VID, high-redshift next-generation experiments can probe deviations from $\Lambda$CDM of order unity, while stage-3 experiments will be able to probe deviations as small as $\lesssim10\%$ at least up to $k\sim 10\,$Mpc$^{-1}$., Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures. Version accepted for publication

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) has two scientific objectives of cosmological focus: to probe the expansion rate of the universe, and to understand stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds and their implications for early universe and particle physics, from the MeV to the Planck scale. However, the range of potential cosmological applications of gravitational wave observations extends well beyond these two objectives. This publication presents a summary of the state of the art in LISA cosmology, theory and methods, and identifies new opportunities to use gravitational wave observations by LISA to probe the universe.

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be a transformative experiment for gravitational wave astronomy, and, as such, it will offer unique opportunities to address many key astrophysical questions in a completely novel way. The synergy with ground-based and space-born instruments in the electromagnetic domain, by enabling multi-messenger observations, will add further to the discovery potential of LISA. The next decade is crucial to prepare the astrophysical community for LISA's first observations. This review outlines the extensive landscape of astrophysical theory, numerical simulations, and astronomical observations that are instrumental for modeling and interpreting the upcoming LISA datastream. To this aim, the current knowledge in three main source classes for LISA is reviewed; ultracompact stellar-mass binaries, massive black hole binaries, and extreme or intermediate mass ratio inspirals. The relevant astrophysical processes and the established modeling techniques are summarized. Likewise, open issues and gaps in our understanding of these sources are highlighted, along with an indication of how LISA could help making progress in the different areas. New research avenues that LISA itself, or its joint exploitation with upcoming studies in the electromagnetic domain, will enable, are also illustrated. Improvements in modeling and analysis approaches, such as the combination of numerical simulations and modern data science techniques, are discussed. This review is intended to be a starting point for using LISA as a new discovery tool for understanding our Universe.

The mass and the spin of accreting and jetted black holes, at the center of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs), can be probed by analyzing their electromagnetic spectra. For this purpose, we use the Spin-Modified Fundamental Plane of black hole activity, which non-linearly connects the following four variables (in the source frame): radio luminosity, X-ray or optical luminosity (via the [OIII] emission line), black hole mass and spin. Taking into account the uncertainties in luminosity measurements, conversion factors, relativistic beaming and physical properties of the AGN system, we derive lower bounds on the spins of a group of heavy, jetted AGNs. Using these results, we study the direct implications on the mass spectrum of the ultra-light particles of scalar (axion-like), vector (dark photon) and tensor types (additional spin-2 particles). We close unexplored gap in the parameter space $10^{-20}-10^{-19}$eV. We obtain upper bounds on the axion decay constant (equivalently lower bounds on the self-interaction strength) considering self-interactions could prevent the axion particles entering the instability, and be the reason for non-observation of superradiance. Assuming axion is described by mass and decay constant, we obtain upper limits on what fraction of dark matter can be formed by ultra-light particles and find that single spieces axion-like light particle can constitute at most $10\%$ of the dark matter in the mass range: $ 10^{-21} < \mu \, (\mathrm{eV}) < 10^{-17}$., Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, version accepted for publication to JCAP

Next generation cosmic microwave background spectral distortion and pulsar timing array experiments have the potential to probe primordial fluctuations at small scales with remarkable sensitivity. We demonstrate the potential of these probes to either detect signatures of primordial black holes (PBHs) sourced from primordial overdensities within the standard thermal history of the universe over a 13-decade mass range ${\cal O}(0.1-10^{12})M_\odot$, or constrain their existence to a negligible abundance. Our conclusions are based only on global cosmological signals, and are robust under changes in i) the statistical properties of the primordial density fluctuations (whether Gaussian or non-Gaussian), ii) the merger and accretion history of the PBHs and assumptions about associated astrophysical processes, and iii) clustering statistics. Any positive detection of enhanced primordial fluctuations at small scales would have far-reaching implications from the content of dark matter to origin of BHs in the centers of galaxies, and to the field content of the inflation. On the other hand, their non-detection would also have important corollaries. For example, non-detection up to forecast sensitivities would tell us that PBHs larger than a fraction of a solar mass can constitute no more than a negligible fraction of dark matter. Moreover, non-detection will also rule out the scenario that PBHs generated by primordial overdensities could be the progenitors of super-massive black holes (SMBHs), of topical interest as there are only a few widely accepted proposals for the formation of SMBHs, an even more pressing question after the detection of active galactic nuclei over a billion solar masses at redshifts $z \geq 7$. Finally, non-detection sets the strongest bounds on the amplitude of small scale inflationary fluctuations for over 6 decades., Comment: 9 pages, 2 figures, accepted version

The Fundamental Plane (FP) of Black Hole (BH) Activity in galactic nuclei relates X-ray and radio luminosities to BH mass and accretion rate. However, there is a large scatter exhibited by the data, which motivated us for a new variable. We add BH spin as a new variable and estimate the spin dependence of the jet power and disk luminosity in terms of radio and X-ray luminosities. We assume the Blandford-Znajek process as the main source of the outflow, and find that the jet power depends on BH spin stronger than quadratically at moderate and large spin values. We perform a statistical analysis for 10 AGNs which have sub-Eddington accretion rates and whose spin values are measured independently via the reflection or continuum-fitting methods, and find that the spin-dependent relation describes the data significantly better. This analysis, if supported with more data, could imply not only the spin dependence of the FP relation, but also the Blandford-Znajek process in AGN jets., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We study a variant of the Chromo-Natural Inflation (CNI) mechanism in which the inflaton interacts only gravitationally with the CNI fields. Integrating out all the non-dynamical scalar fields of the model results in a coupling between the perturbations of the inflaton and of the CNI pseudo-scalar which is significantly greater than the one obtained in the absence of the gauge CNI dynamics. We compute how this greater coupling impacts the power spectrum of the inflaton perturbations that are sourced nonlinearly by the unstable (tensor) gauge CNI modes, and we require that the amplitude of these modes is well below that of the linear perturbations. Combining this result with various constraints, including backreaction effects, the requirement of having observable and dominant sourced gravitational waves (GW), and the current upper bound on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, significantly constrains the range of parameter space where this model can produce an interesting GW signal., Comment: 42 pages, 8 figures

Although Cosmic Microwave Background and Large Scale Structure probe the largest scales of our universe with ever increasing precision, our knowledge about the smaller scales is still very limited other than the bounds on Primordial Black Holes. We show that the statistical properties of the small scale quantum fluctuations can be probed via the stochastic gravitational wave background, which is induced as the scalar modes re-enter the horizon. We found that even if scalar curvature fluctuations have a subdominant non-Gaussian component, these non-Gaussian perturbations can source a dominant portion of the induced GWs. Moreover, the GWs sourced by non-Gaussian scalar fluctuations peaks at a higher frequency and this can result in distinctive observational signatures. We found that the sensitive next-generation-interferometers, which will/could reach $\Omega_{GW}h^2 \sim 10^{-15}$ (such as PTA-SKA, LISA, DECIGO, BBO, CE, ET), can probe $f_{NL} \sim 0.5$ which is even better than the predictions of the next generation CMB experiments. If the induced GW background is detected, but not the signatures arising from the non-Gaussian component, $\zeta = \zeta_G + f_{\rm NL} \, \zeta_G^{2}$, this translates into bounds on $f_{\rm NL}$ depending on the amplitude and the width of the GW signal. If the induced GW background is not detected at all, this translates into bounds on scalar fluctuations. The results are independent from the fact that whether PBH are DM or completely negligible part of the current energy density., Comment: 7 pages, 10 figures, added figures of merit to stress that interferometers can probe nonGaussianity sensitively (fnl~ 0.5)

Several models of inflation employing a triplet of SU(2) vectors with spatially orthogonal vacuum expectation values (VEVs) have been recently proposed. One (tensor) combination $t$ of the vector modes is amplified in some momentum range during inflation. Due to the vector VEVs, this combination mixes with gravitational waves (GW) at the linear level, resulting in a GW amplification that has been well studied in the literature. Scalar perturbations in this class of models have been so far studied only at the linear level. We perform a first step toward the nonlinear computation using as an example the original model of Chromo-Natural Inflation. We compute the contribution to the scalar power spectrum arising from the coupling of the combination $t$ to the inflaton. This contribution is mostly controlled by a single parameter of the model (namely, the ratio between the mass of the fluctuations of the vector field and the Hubble rate), and, for a wide range of this parameter, it can significantly affect the phenomenology obtained from the linear theory. This nonlinear contribution is significantly blue, improving the comparison between the two-point function and the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data. This growth can be also relevant for smaller scale phenomenology, such as large scale structure, CMB distortions, and primordial black holes., Comment: 30 pages, 8 figures, correction to loop integral due to extra term, main results unchanged, match with the JCAP version

Primordial Black Holes (PBH) could be the cold dark matter of the universe. They could have arisen from large (order one) curvature fluctuations produced during inflation that reentered the horizon in the radiation era. At reentry, these fluctuations source gravitational waves (GW) via second order anisotropic stresses. These GW, together with those (possibly) sourced during inflation by the same mechanism responsible for the large curvature fluctuations, constitute a primordial stochastic GW background (SGWB) that unavoidably accompanies the PBH formation. We study how the amplitude and the range of frequencies of this signal depend on the statistics (Gaussian versus $\chi^2$) of the primordial curvature fluctuations, and on the evolution of the PBH mass function due to accretion and merging. We then compare this signal with the sensitivity of present and future detectors, at PTA and LISA scales. We find that this SGWB will help to probe, or strongly constrain, the early universe mechanism of PBH production. The comparison between the peak mass of the PBH distribution and the peak frequency of this SGWB will provide important information on the merging and accretion evolution of the PBH mass distribution from their formation to the present era. Different assumptions on the statistics and on the PBH evolution also result in different amounts of CMB $\mu$-distortions. Therefore the above results can be complemented by the detection (or the absence) of $\mu$-distortions with an experiment such as PIXIE., Comment: 32 pages, 12 figures

We study the prospects of detection at terrestrial and space interferometers, as well as at pulsar timing array experiments, of a stochastic gravitational wave background which can be produced in models of axion inflation. This potential signal, and the development of these experiments, open a new window on inflation on scales much smaller than those currently probed with Cosmic Microwave Background and Large Scale Structure measurements. The sourced signal generated in axion inflation is an ideal candidate for such searches, since it naturally grows at small scales, and it has specific properties (chirality and non-gaussianity) that can distinguish it from an astrophysical background. We study under which conditions such a signal can be produced at an observable level, without the simultaneous overproduction of scalar perturbations in excess of what is allowed by the primordial black hole limits. We also explore the possibility that scalar perturbations generated in a modified version of this model may provide a distribution of primordial black holes compatible with the current bounds, that can act as a seeds of the present black holes in the universe., Comment: 29 pages, 10 figures. Version accepted for publication in JCAP. Added PTA bounds and few minor corrections

The motion of a pseudo-scalar field $X$ during inflation naturally induces a significant amplification of the gauge fields to which it is coupled. The amplified gauge fields can source characteristic scalar and tensor primordial perturbations. Several phenomenological implications have been discussed in the cases in which (i) $X$ is the inflation, and (ii) $X$ is a field different from the inflation, that experiences a temporary speed up during inflation. In this second case, visible sourced gravitational waves (GW) can be produced at the CMB scales without affecting the scalar perturbations, even if the scale of inflation is several orders of magnitude below what is required to produce a visible vacuum GW signal. Perturbativity considerations can be used to limit the regime in which these results are under perturbative control. We revised limits recently claimed for the case (i), and we extend these considerations to the case (ii). We show that, in both cases, these limits are satisfied by the applications that generate signals at CMB scales. Applications that generate gravitational waves and primordial black holes at much smaller scales are at the limit of the validity of this perturbativity analysis, so we expect those results to be valid up to possibly order one corrections., Comment: 37 pages, 9 figures

We consider a model in which a pseudo-scalar field $\sigma$ rolls for some e-folds during inflation, sourcing one helicity of a gauge field. These fields are only gravitationally coupled to the inflaton, and therefore produce scalar and tensor primordial perturbations only through gravitational interactions. These sourced signals are localized on modes that exit the horizon while the roll of $\sigma$ is significant. We focus our study on cases in which the model can simultaneously produce (i) a large gravitational wave signal, resulting in observable B-modes of the CMB polarizations, and (ii) sufficiently small scalar perturbations, so to be in agreement with the current limits from temperature anisotropies. Different choice of parameters can instead lead to a localized and visible departure from gaussianity in the scalar sector, either at CMB or LSS scales., Comment: 41+1 pages, 29 figures

In Aligned Natural Inflation, an alignment between different potential terms produces an inflaton excursion greater than the axion scales in the potential. We show that, starting from a general potential of two axions with two aligned potential terms, the effective theory for the resulting light direction is characterized by four parameters: an effective potential scale, an effective axion constant, and two extra parameters (related to ratios of the axion scales and the potential scales in the $2-$field theory). For all choices of these extra parameters, the model can support inflation along valleys (in the $2-$field space) that end in minima of the potential. This leads to a phenomenology similar to that of single field Natural Inflation. For a significant range of the extra two parameters, the model possesses also higher altitude inflationary trajectories passing through saddle points of the $2-$field potential, and disconnected from any minimum. These plateaus end when the heavier direction becomes unstable, and therefore all of inflation takes place close to the saddle point, where - due to the higher altitude - the potential is flatter (smaller $\epsilon$ parameter). As a consequence, a tensor-to-scalar ratio $r = {\rm O } \left( 10^{-4} - 10^{-2} \right)$ can be easily achieved in the allowed $n_s$ region, well within the latest $1 \sigma$ CMB contours.

Solid inflation is an effective field theory of inflation in which isotropy and homogeneity are accomplished via a specific combination of anisotropic sources (three scalar fields that individually break isotropy). This results in specific observational signatures that are not found in standard models of inflation: a non-trivial angular dependence for the squeezed bispectrum, and a possibly long period of anisotropic inflation (to drive inflation, the "solid" must be very insensitive to any deformation, and thus background anisotropies are very slowly erased). In this paper we compute the expected level of statistical anisotropy in the power spectrum of the curvature perturbations of this model. To do so, we account for the classical background values of the three scalar fields that are generated on large (superhorizon) scales during inflation via a random walk sum, as the perturbation modes leave the horizon. Such an anisotropy is unavoidably generated, even starting from perfectly isotropic classical initial conditions. The expected level of anisotropy is related to the duration of inflation and to the amplitude of the squeezed bispectrum. If this amplitude is close to its current observational limit (so that one of the most interesting predictions of the model can be observed in the near future), we find that a level of statistical anisotropy $\gtrsim 3\%$ in the power spectrum is to be expected, if inflation lasted $\gtrsim 20-30$ e-folds more than the final $50-60$ efolds required to generare the CMB modes. We also comment and point out various similarities between solid inflation and models of inflation where a suitable coupling of the inflaton to a vector kinetic term $F^{2}$ gives frozen and scale invariant vector perturbations on superhorizon scales., Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures