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Concomitant to demographic transition from high to low fertility and mortality is the structural change from a youthful to an ageing population. The change raises, among others, intergenerational demographic, economic and social issues, some of which have been perceived as problems. The HIV/AIDS epidemic poses additional challenges to policy makers in the provision of personal care and financial support as it may alter intergenerational relationships in the demand for services in transitional populations. The first HIV/AIDS case in South Africa was reported in 1981. Since then, HIV sero-prevalence as measured by women attending antenatal clinics has steadily increased in the country, and currently South Africa is one of the highest HIV prevalent countries in the world and in the African continent with sero-prevalence of 29.5% among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in 2004. In 2002, the Nelson Mandela Funds in collaboration with the Human Sciences Research Council carried out a national HIV prevalence, behavioural risks and mass media household survey. Only a few countries in the world have carried out such a national HIV prevalence survey. As an insight into the magnitude of some of the intergenerational relationships regarding HIV/AIDS, this study attempts to examine the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS on the young and elderly populations in South Africa's four main population groups (Africans, Coloureds, Indians and Whites). The study utilizes various national survey/census data, administrative records and HIV sero-prevalence data. The analysis is based on the cohort component method. The results show that demographic transition in South Africa has resulted in changes in the growth and structural characteristics of the population. Some of the results indicate that some of the changes are in opposite directions among the young and the elderly. AIDS compounds some of the trends. The changes have policy implications for intergenerational demands for services and relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: maternal mortality estimates for South Africa have methodological weaknesses. This study uses the Growth Balance Method to adjust reported household female deaths and pregnancy-related deaths and the relational Gompertz model to adjust reported number of live births and estimate maternal mortality in South Africa at national and provincial level; examines the potential impact of HIV/AIDS prevalence; and investigates the recorded direct causes of maternal mortality., Design: data from the 2001 Census, 2007 Community Survey and death registrations were utilised. Information on household deaths, including pregnancy-related deaths was collected from the aforementioned census and survey., Setting: enumerated households in the 2001 Census and a nationally representative sample of 250,348 households in the 2007 Community Survey., Participants: information about members of households who died in the preceding 12 months was collected, and of these deaths whether there were women aged 15-49 who died while pregnant or within 42 days after childbirth., Findings: maternal mortality ratio of 764 per 100,000 live births in 2007, ranging from 102 per 100,000 live births in the Western Cape province to 1639 in the Eastern Cape. Maternal infections and parasitic diseases as well as other maternal diseases complicating pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium are the major causes. The study found a weak correlation between provincial HIVprevalence and maternal mortality ratio., Conclusion: despite strategies to improve maternal and child health, maternal mortality remains high in South Africa and it is unlikely that the Millennnium Developmemnt Goal of reducing maternal will be achieved., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Since the outbreak of the HIV epidemic in the 1980s, various organisations and researchers have produced statistics on HIV/AIDS including HIV prevalence, incidence, number of AIDS cases, AIDS-related mortality as well as life expectancy at birth in the context of HIV/AIDS. Until recently HIV-prevalence statistics as well as models projecting the impact of HIV/AIDS utilised HIV-prevalence statistics based on women attending antenatal clinics as population-based prevalence statistics were non-existent. Among others, the extrapolation of HIV-prevalence statistics from surveillance sites to the general population has been questioned. Recent statistics on HIV-prevalence from population-based surveys strongly suggest that HIV-prevalence in many countries may not be as high as earlier estimated and projected. In addition, model estimates of HIV/AIDS-prevalence and impact on mortality often use conventional model life tables such as the Coale-Demeny Regional, UN, and Brass standard life tables, which in the case of South Africa give female life expectancy at birth plummeting from about 65 years in the mid-1990s to around 49-50 years in 2005. The standard life tables often employed in these estimates do not take account of the 'hump' in the mortality curve due to AIDS-related deaths as these standard mortality schedules were developed prior to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Given this background, this paper provides a critical look at recent statistics on infant mortality rates and life expectancies at birth in the context of HIV/AIDS in parts of Southern and Eastern Africa with particular reference to South Africa.

Sentinel surveillance surveys combined with epidemiological/demographic models have been used in monitoring trends in mortality due to HIV in South Africa as in most other countries. The potential biases in such surveys have been highlighted in recent studies. South Africa's HIV prevalence (29.5% among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in 2004) is one of the highest in the world. National HIV prevalence from population-based survey has been carried out twice in South Africa, but is of limited use as a surveillance system independent of antenatal data. The use of vital registration in monitoring HIV related mortality has been largely unexplored. This study utilises data on registered deaths for the period 1997-2001 to estimate trends in mortality and TB/HIV related death rates in South Africa. The analysis utilizes the Growth Balance method to estimate the completeness of the death records from the registration system, and hence an adjustment factor for the registered deaths including TB/HIV related deaths in the period. The results indicate that coverage of registration of deaths in South Africa has increased over time but the completeness of registration of female deaths lags behind completeness of registration of male deaths. The absolute number of deaths is estimated to have increased from about 400,000 in 1997 to about 565,000 in 2002. Crude HIV related plus TB-AIDS death rate is estimated to have increased from about 9.6 per 10,000 in 1997 to about 19.1 per 10,000 in 2002. The increase in the number of deaths could not be attributed to population growth.

The final estimate of South Africa's population as of October 1996 from the first post-apartheid census by Statistics South Africa was lower (40.6 million) than expected (42 million). The expectation of a total population of 42 million was largely based on results of apartheid projections of South Africa's population. The results of the last apartheid census in South Africa in 1991 had been adjusted such that it was consistent with results modelling the population size of South Africa. The discrepancy between the final estimate of the 1996 census and that expected from the modelling described above, and the departure by Statistics South Africa from previous practice of adjusting the census results to be consistent with demographic models, has generated controversies regarding the accuracy of the final results from the 1996 census. This study re-examines levels and differential in fertility in South Africa from recent evidence in order to assess whether or not the fertility inputs in projections of South Africa's population during the apartheid era overestimated fertility.

The literature on the effect of fertility on child survival is extensive especially since the accumulation of data from the World Fertility, and Demographic and Health Surveys. Comparatively, empirical studies examining the other side of the relationship--the effect of child survival on fertility--are sparse although theoretical considerations suggest the interdependence of child survival and fertility. Furthermore, the relationship of child survival and fertility is often examined at the micro-level. There is growing recognition, however, that this relationship may be also influenced by macro-level factors. This study attempts to measure the effect of child survival on birth intervals in Zimbabwe using a micro-macro analytical approach based on the individual and community data from the 1988 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey, and the 1989/1990 Zimbabwe Service Availability Survey, respectively. The multivariate analysis showed that there is a replacement effect in the relationship between child survival and fertility independent of individual characteristics of women in Zimbabwe. The analysis also showed that health interventions as measured by coverage and visit by a mobile family planning clinic, and access to a health service have differential impact on fertility in Zimbabwe controlling for the survival status of the previous to the last child and individual characteristics of the women.

With an unequalled contraceptive prevalence rate in sub-Saharan Africa, of 43% among currently married women in Zimbabwe, the Central Statistical Office (1989) observed that fertility has declined sharply in recent years. Using data from several surveys on Zimbabwe, especially the birth histories of the Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey, this study examines fertility trends in Zimbabwe. The results show that the fertility decline in Zimbabwe is modest and that the decline is concentrated among high order births. Multivariate analysis did not show a statistically significant effect of contraception on fertility, partly because a high proportion of Zimbabwean women in the reproductive age group never use contraception due to prevailing pronatalist attitudes in the country.

Although demographic information on Nigeria has increased in the past two decades, information on adult mortality in the country is still sparse. This paper provides information on the levels and trends in male and female adult mortality among the Kanuri of north-east Nigeria. Analysis of reports of orphanhood and widowhood suggests moderately high levels of mortality.

Despite the fact that modern family planning activities in Nigeria date back to the 1950s, data on fertility are indicative of relatively high levels in the country. This paper reviews some data on fertility levels in Nigeria; it then focuses on family planning activities and examines some of the conditions encouraging pronatalist attitude among couples in Nigeria.