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This paper investigates how Paul van Zeeland, Prime Minister in the 1930s, became one of the most famous Belgian monetary economists. We discuss his early experiences in Belgium, his studies at Princeton with Kemmerer and his return to Europe as the first Head of the Economic Service of the National Bank of Belgium. We analyse his adherence to the gold standard, the quantity theory of money and the real bills doctrine. We mainly focus on his PhD Dissertation on the Federal Reserve System and on papers he wrote in the early twenties located in the NBB archives.

As an Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) promotion policy which aims to transform and upgrade Chinese firms, the ‘Belt and Road’ (B&R) Initiative has been widely discussed with regard to its influence on R&D activities. Many studies have associated this topic with the relationship between OFDI and R&D activities, however, the difference between the OFDI promotion policy and the OFDI has been neglected, resulting in little understanding of the effects of B&R implementation on R&D activities related to established OFDIs. By analyzing how the implementation of B&R affects asset-exploitation and knowledge transfer, this paper provides a new perspective to help understand if and how Chinese firms that have affiliates in B&R countries gain positive R&D outcomes from such a policy. This study examines a sample of Chinese-listed manufacturing firms from 2013 to 2017. Propensity Score Matching is used to construct a counterfactual framework and control for confounding problems from new OFDI entries. Difference-in-Differences is used to infer the policy effect of B&R implementation on R&D outcome of Chinese firms that have affiliates in B&R countries. Results show a continuously positive effect on R&D outcomes mediated by the increase in R&D expenditure, along with a directly weak-positive effect on R&D outcomes in the short-run. The continuously positive effect may be viewed as a result of an improvement in asset-exploitation, while the directly weak-positive effect is more a result of an increase in knowledge transfer, leaving out technology transfer. Regarding differences among Chinese firms that invest in B&R countries with varying levels of economic development, this study also found no differences between firms that have B&R affiliates in developed versus developing countries. This finding implies that Chinese firms have experienced little or no increase in technology transfer through B&R implementation. Overall, these findings, to some extent, illustrate Chinese

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Today, though the need for new indicators of progress is broadly recognized, no consensus has arisen on a successor to GDP. Various – often conflicting – quantification options are observed. On one side, one finds those who want to improve current indicators, by completing or adjusting them, within the logic from which they have emerged. On the other are those for whom new indicators of progress are liable, if well-designed, to catalyze a transition toward a new model of society, less reliant on growth. Up to now, these axiological issues related to quantification choices, though crucial for “what we measure affects what we do”, are scattered among the debates and do not appear clearly to the stakeholders to the debates. Our paper aims therefore to offer a more systematic understanding of the normative impacts of generic quantification choices. To that end, we analyse the Index of Economic Well-Being (IEWB). Though this index is an example of creativeness at a given time, its lack of success in the public sphere leads us to further investigate the coherence between its foundations and its purpose(s). For each dimension of this composite indicator, the analysis – which is intended to be easily transposed to other indicators – sheds light on the variety of normative implications resulting from its conceptual and methodological apparatus. This concomitantly leads us to question in depth the relevance of some theoretical hypotheses underlying the IEWB to coherently account for economic, social and ecological issues. The paper’s conclusion suggests that alternative conceptual frameworks, such as ecological economics and the capability approach, are liable to carry more coherent indicators of progress.

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Margin squeeze cases are complex with a high probability of errors due to methodological choices and dependency on reliable and relevant data. Ex ante Regulation can provide guidance to competition authorities on the efficiency/ feasibility of entry models and help them to identify which unavoidable costs should be taken into account Margin squeeze is not abusive per se and a theory of harm should be part of the assessment carried out by courts and authorities.

After sixty years of predominance in the western countries, both the objective of economic growth and its core measure, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), have been questioned. It no longer seems consistent to maintain growth as a societal goal and to keep GDP as the major reference for socioeconomic policies. Numerous alternative indicators have been suggested. These new indicators potentially constitute a great opportunity for change: it is now broadly accepted that what we measure affects what we do. We go a step further, claiming that the way we measure it is just as crucial: indicators intrinsically carry axiological and normative conceptions, embedded in the specific way they are built. As indicators are increasingly being used for shaping political ends, light should be shed on these underlying conceptions. Our analysis of the Adjusted Net Savings (ANS, the sustainability indicator proposed by the World Bank) attempts to illustrate these normative underpinning, often obscured by technical concerns around the numbers. By systematically deconstructing the ANS, from its conceptual framework to its sub-dimensions, we shed light on the singular and debatable conception of ‘sustainability’ (in its human and ecological aspects) encompassed in the ANS. This exercise aims to provide an insight into the societal values embedded in such indicators, which can strongly influence decision-making.

For more than half a century, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been perceived as the main indicator of economic and social progress. However, the intensity of the recent economic, social and ecological crises confronts societies with the deep inadequacy of their development patterns with regard to the human and ecological conditions of their sustainability. The affluence of new indicators aiming to go "beyond GDP" reveals a strong willingness to overcome such inadequacy. Though, addressing societal purposes by means of quantification entails democratic risks. Considering these risks, the thesis, encompassing three parts, aims at shedding light on the normative scope of indicators and explores the consequences of this normativity. The first part studies the sociopolitical conditions in which new indicators have emerged. The second part suggests a systematic decoding of the quantification options underlying two indicators: the Adjusted Net Savings (ANS) and the Index of Economic Well-Being (IEWB). Besides shedding light on the implicit normativity of quantification options, these two case studies show the unsuitability of these indicators' methodological anchorage for quantifying sustainability in a coherent way. It appears therefore important to question the evaluative criteria of indicators 'quality. This is precisely what is done in the third part of the thesis, which develops the criterion of "performative coherence". Reaching the epistemological and theoretical conditions required by the respect of such a criterion implies to overcome the mainstream paradigm and to explore alternative schools of thought, whose Ecological Economic seems the most fruitful to build new indicators beyond GDP., Pendant des décennies, croissance du PIB et progrès des sociétés ont été largement associés l'un à l'autre. Toutefois, l'acuité des récentes crises économiques, sociales et écologiques confronte les sociétés à l'inadéquation de plus en plus profonde de leur mode de développement vis-à-vis des conditions écologiques et humaines de leur perpétuation. L'abondance de nouveaux indicateurs visant un "au-delà du PIB" est symptomatique d'une recherche de dépassement de cette inadéquation. Cependant, traiter de finalités de société au moyen de la quantification engendre des risques de nature démocratique. Face à ces risques, la thèse, structurée en trois parties, entend mettre en lumière la normativité des indicateurs et en explorer les conséquences. La première partie étudie les conditions sociopolitiques d'émergence des indicateurs. La deuxième propose un décryptage systématique des options de quantification de deux indicateurs: l'Epargne Nette Ajustée (ENA) et l'Indice de Bien-être économique (IBEE). Outre l'explicitation de la normativité inhérente à tout choix de quantification, l'étude de ces deux cas démontre l'inadaptation de leurs options méthodologiques pour quantifier la soutenabilité de manière cohérente. Il importe dès lors de questionner les critères de qualité à l'aune desquels les indicateurs devraient être évalués. C'est à cette tâche que s'attèle la troisième partie de la thèse. Le critère de cohérence performative y est développé. La recherche des conditions épistémologiques et théoriques nécessaires au respect d'un tel critère invite à dépasser le paradigme dominant pour explorer d'autres courants, dont Ecological Economics semble être le plus fécond s'il s'agit d'élaborer de nouveaux indicateurs au-delà du PIB., (ECON 3) -- UCL, 2012

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This paper provides an overview of structural modelling in its close relation to explanation and causation. It stems from previous works by the authors and stresses the role and importance of the notions of invariance, recursive decomposition, exogeneity and background knowledge. It closes with some considerations about the importance of the structural approach for practicing scientists.

We study the optimal dynamics of an AK economy where population is uniformly distributed along the unit circle. Locations only differ in initial capital endowments. Despite constant returns to capital, we prove that transition dynamics will set in. In particular, we prove that the spatio-temporal dynamics, induced by the willingness of the planner to give the same (detrended) consumption over space and time, lead to convergence in the level of capital across locations in the long-run.

This thesis aims at exploring the ties between education and the labour market. It is a micro-analysis of the effects of education on individual labour market outcomes and vice versa, from adolescence till retirement, using both theoretical and empirical tools. The first chapter is a critical discussion of the relevant literature and an introduction to the rest of the chapters. We discuss the special features of the Belgian education system and labour market and explain why we chose Belgium as the country of interest. Finally, we give a brief outline of the methodological tools we are using. The second chapter discusses how family income and parental work status influence children’s secondary school track choices, which is a significant determinant of future school attendance and labour market outcomes. Our results suggest that income has no significant effect on track choices after we control for (observed and unobserved) family characteristics. This conclusion is in line with the relevant literature. On the other hand, parental work status affects track choices. An unemployed father significantly increases the probability that his child will choose a less promising school track. The third chapter decomposes the effect of schooling on earnings into three separate effects: on wages, unemployment and labour supply. We argue that the true effect of schooling on earnings is a composition of higher wages, less unemployment and increased labour supply. This contrasts the mincerian approach that schooling mainly results to increased wages. At the same time we show that different school tracks imply different gains from education; hence not only years in education but also the type of education course matters. Finally we find complementarities between general and vocational school qualifications. In the fourth chapter we develop a theoretical model of lifetime human capital and earnings with endogenous retirement. The model is then adjusted to different retirement schemes, Le sujet de cette thèse consiste en l'étude des liens existants entre l'éducation et le marché du travail. Cette analyse microéconomique étudie les effets de l'éducation sur les performances individuelles sur le marché du travail, et vice versa, et ce à partir de l'adolescence jusqu'à l'âge de la retraite. Des outils aussi bien empiriques que théoriques ont été employés en vue de mener à bien nos objectifs. Le premier chapitre s'ouvre sur une présentation critique de la littérature se rapportant au sujet et offre une introduction aux autres chapitres. Nous y présentons les spécificités du système éducatif belge ainsi que de son marché du travail. Y sont également explicitées les raisons qui nous ont poussé à choisir la Belgique comme objet d'étude. Le premier chapitre se clôt sur une présentation des outils méthodologiques employés dans les chapitres ultérieurs. Le second chapitre examine l'influence des revenus familiaux et du statut professionnel des parents sur le choix d'orientation scolaire de l'étudiant en secondaires. L’orientation scolaire apparaisse comme étant un déterminant significatif de l'assiduité de l'étudiant aux cours ainsi que sur ses performances futures sur le marché du travail. Nos résultats montrent que le niveau de revenu n'a pas d'impact significatif sur les choix d'orientation de l'étudiant une fois que l'on contrôle pour les caractéristiques familiales (observées ou non). Nos conclusions sont en parfaite adéquation avec les résultats obtenus dans la littérature sur le sujet. Par contre, il s'avère que le choix d'orientation se voit influencé par le statut professionnel des parents. Un père sans emploi voit une augmentation significative de la probabilité que son enfant s'oriente plutôt vers des études moins ambitieuses. Le troisième chapitre présente une décomposition des effets de la scolarité sur les revenus du travail en trois éléments distincts : sur les salaires, le chômage et l'offre de travail. Nous soutenons que l'effet réel de la, (ECON 3) -- UCL, 2010

We analyze the relationship between firm-level innovation activities and firms' propensity to start exporting for firms in a small open economy. We measure innovation by innovative effort (R&D) as well as by innovative output (product and process innovation). After carefully correcting for endogeneity and selection issues, the evidence points to firms self-selecting into innovation in anticipation of their entry into export markets, rather than product and process innovation triggering entry into the export market. These results suggest that governments can foster firm-level innovation through trade liberalization.

This study is motivated by the evidence of global warming, which is caused by human activity but affects the efficiency of the economy. We employ the integrated assessment Nordhaus DICE-2007 model [16]. Generally speaking, the framework is that of dynamic optimization of the discounted inter-temporal utility of consumption, taking into account the economic and the environmental dynamics. The main novelty is that several reasonable types of behavior (policy) of the economic agents, which may be non-optimal from the point of view of the global performance but are reasonable form an individual point of view and exist in reality, are strictly defined and analyzed. These include the concepts of “business as usual”, in which an economic agent ignores her impact on the climate change (although adapting to it), and of “free riding with a perfect foresight”, where some economic agents optimize in an adaptive way their individual performance expecting that the others would perform in a collectively optimal way. These policies are defined in a formal and unified way modifying ideas from the so-called “model predictive control”. The introduced concepts are relevant to many other problems of dynamic optimization, especially in the context of resource economics. However, the numerical analysis in this paper is devoted to the evolution of the world economy and the average temperature in the next 150 years, depending on different scenarios for the behavior of the economic agents. In particular, the results show that the “business as usual”, although adaptive to the change of the atmospheric temperature, may lead within 150 years to increase of temperature by 2°C more than the collectively optimal policy.

The objective of this paper is analyse the determinants of the Argentine crisis of 2001-2002. In particular we analyse the role of macroeconomic policies during the crisis. The crisis coincided with a sudden stop of capital flows.We use a VAR model to better understand the shocks and mechanisms by which the crisis propagated throughout the economy. We find evidence that Argentine crisis was the consequence of an external financial shock, expressed by the increase in sovereign spread, amplified by local vulnerabilities. Fiscal policy, that faced financial restrictions, was tightened and the economy suffered additional contractionary fiscal shocks. The recession was exacerbated by a real exchange rate shock, that was appreciated. This result is the consequence of the rigid fixed exchange rate used by Argentina and the lack of coordination inside the Mercosur agreement where Brazil devaluate while Argentina not. Our analysis suggests the convenience of generate an institutional framework that allows a flexible use of fiscal and exchange rate policies to confront with adverse external shocks.

This paper analyses the impact of networks on the structure of international migration flows to OECD countries. In particular, we look at whether diaspora effects are different across education levels and gender. Using new data allowing to include both dimensions, we are able to analyze the respective impact of networks on the proportion of each category of migrant. Therefore, unlike the preceding literature on macro determinants of international migration, we can identify the factors that influence the selection in terms skills and in terms of gender. We find that network effects vary by education level but not by gender.

Recent human capital theories predict that labor market frictions and product market competition influence firm-sponsored training. Using matched worker-firm data from Dutch manufacturing, our paper empirically assesses the validity of these predictions. We find that a decrease in labor market frictions significantly reduces firms’ training expenditures. Instead, product market competition does not have an effect on firm-sponsored training. We conclude that increasing competition through international integration and globalization does not pose a threat to investments in on-the-job training. An increase in labor market flexibility may reduce incentives of firms to invest in training, but the magnitude of this effect is small.

This paper presents a multidimensional normative framework to evaluate whether the world moved forward between 1980 and 2008. We focus on the robustness of the results when attributing different weights to the different dimensions. Population-weighted international welfare has not worsened over this period. However, the trend in the underlying inequality is ambiguous, once sufficient weight is given to longevity and/or income. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The analysis of labor supply under risk has a long history dating back to Hicks (The theory of wages, St. Martin's Press, New York, 2003) and Knight (Risk, uncertainty and profit, Kelly, New York, 1964). In the 1980s more technical papers investigated the impact of stochastic non-labor income and/or wage rate upon labor supply. In this paper, we show that the effect of a mean-preserving increase in risk in wage rate or non-labor income on labor supply is best understood as a special case of an Nth degree risk increase (as defined by Ekern (Econ Lett 6:329-333, 1980)) and the conditions for signing the effect of a higher-order risk increase in wage rate or non-labor income on labor supply are analogous to those for signing the effect of a simple non-stochastic decrease in wage rate or non-labor income. We thus extend, and provide new and more intuitive interpretations for, related earlier results.

Numerous studies have examined the explanations of mortality fluctuations in the former USSR during the last decade of the twentieth century-a time of considerable political and socio-economic changes-but fewer studies have considered the health of these populations during this period. Using individual data from the Norbalt surveys held in 1994 and 1999 in the three Baltic countries, we examine the determinants of self-rated health in the three countries and for the two periods, by way of Bayesian structural equation modelling and directed acyclic graphs. The model takes into account, as possible determinants, alcohol consumption, physical health, psychological distress, education, locus of control, and social support. A major result is the remarkable stability of the model's parameters whatever the country, year, gender, ethnicity, or age-group. Particular attention is given to the role of alcohol consumption and to the association observed between better self-assessed health and higher drinking. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

We study a trade-off between economic and environmental indicators using a two-stage optimal control setting where the player can switch to a cleaner technology, that is environmentally ?effcient?, but economically less productive. We provide an analytical characterization of the solution paths for the case where the considered utility functions are increasing and strictly concave with respect to consumption and decreasing linearly with respect to the pollution stock. In this context, an isolated player will either immediately start using the environmentally effcient technology, or for ever continue applying the old and ?dirty? technology. In a two-player (say, two neighbor countries) dynamic game where the pollution results from a sum of two consumptions, we prove existence of a Nash (open-loop) equilibrium, in which each player chooses the technology sel?shly i.e., without considering the choice made by the other player. A Stackelberg game solution displays the same properties. Under cooperation, the country reluctant to adopt the technology as an equilibrium solution, chooses to switch to the cleaner technology provided it bene?ts from some ?transfer? from the environmentally effcient partner.

This thesis is a modest attempt to uncover the main features and the underlying drives of Sub Saharan urbanization process. We begin by describing the stylized facts of urbanization in that region. Sub Saharan Africa’s urban pattern features urban bias and urban primacy. Locational advantages and political effects have induced a bias in favor of political capitals and ports. Thus, literature seems to emphasize rent-seeking and hubs determinants at the expense of agglomeration economies strengthening the prejudice against Sub Saharan Africa biggest cities. We question that preconception by performing an empirical analysis investigating the relationship between urban concentration and economic growth. The novelty of our approach lies in the use of semiparametric methods along with a missing data imputation algorithm. Our empirical results point out the specificity of the urbanization patterns in different regions. This prompts us to better characterize the underlying drives of Sub-Saharan Africa urbanization process. This is the challenge of our theoretical investigation which is twofold. On one hand we have attempted to explain urban agglomeration in Sub Saharan Africa by both economic and political factors. We find that this rent-seeking behavior fuels the formation of large urban agglomerations in developing countries, via mechanisms of interregional income transfers. Such a finding may serve to explain a seemingly paradoxical aspect of urban development in SSA: agglomeration despite high trade costs. On another hand, we rely on international trade and hub effects to explain the formation of agglomerations. We are thus able to explain the evidence of the persistence and the fostering of huge agglomerations in coastal locations of Sub-Saharan Africa. We find that openness is likely to trigger agglomeration in the hub especially when transport costs are low. This result is consistent with Weber’s theory of location (Beckmann and Thisse, 1986) which states that in a s, (ECON 3) -- UCL, 2009

This paper assesses whether short-lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long-lasting jobs (enduring one year or more) for Belgian long-term unemployed school-leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market trajectories in a multispell duration model that incorporates lagged duration and occurrence dependence. Second, we simulate them to find that (fe)male school-leavers accepting a short-lived job are, within two years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points more likely to find a long-lasting job than in the counterfactual in which they reject shortlived jobs to search longer for more stable positions.

This paper studies the optimal income redistribution and monitoring when disability benefits are intended for disabled people but where some able agents with high distastes for work mimic them (type II errors). Labor supply responses are at the extensive margin and endogenous takeup costs burden disabled recipients (due to a reputational externality caused by cheaters or due to a snowball effect). Under a non-welfarist criterion which does not compensate for distaste for work, (inactive) disabled recipients get a strictly lower consumption than disabled workers. The usual conditions under which the optimal transfer program is a Negative Income Tax or an Earned Income Tax Credit are challenged, due to monitoring. We also show that even if perfect monitoring is costless, it is optimal to have type II errors. These results are robust to a utilitarian criterion. Numerical simulations calibrated on US data are provided.

Migration flows are shaped by a complex combination of self-selection and out-selection mechanisms. In this paper, we analyze how existing diasporas (the stock of people born in a country and living in an another one) aspect the size and human-capital structure of current migration flows. Our analysis exploits a bilateral data set on international migration by educational attainment from 195 countries to 30 OECD countries in 1990 and 2000. Based on simple micro-foundations and controlling for various determinants of migration, we find diasporas increase migration flows, lower their average educational level and lead to higher concentration of low-skill migrants. Interestingly, diasporas explain majority of the variability of migration flows and selection. This suggests that, without changing the generosity of family reunion programs, education-based selection rules are likely to have moderate impact. Our results are highly robust to the econometric techniques, accounting for the large proportion of zeros and endogeneity problems

We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with an heterogeneous banking sector. We introduce endogenous default probabilities for both firms and banks, and allow for bank regulation and liquidity injection into the interbank market. Our aim is to understand the interactions between the banking sector and the rest of the economy, as well as the importance of supervisory and monetary authorities to restore financial stability. The model is calibrated against real US data and used for simulations. We show that Basel regulation reduces the steady state but improves the resilience of the economy to shocks, and that moving from Basel I to Basel II is procyclical. We also show that liquidity injections relieve financial instability but have ambiguous effects on output fluctuations.

Low-income countries still face a number of major health challenges. Public health services respond to them with great difficulty. This low performance is traditionally attributed to a lack of resources. Our hypothesis is that the observed low performance stems also from the institutional organisation of the public health systems. Our belief is that the institutional dimension has not been correctly appreciated so far in theories and policies of health service organisation in low-income countries. Our general strategy is to tap recent developments in organisational economic theory to gain more insights in the related scientific questions and the connected health policy issues. Our investigation is organised in two parts. Part 1 aims mainly at validating the utilisation of economics (and its institutional branches in particular) to analyse the organisation of public health systems. This validation is done in successive steps. In our chapter 1, we introduce public health systems in rural areas in low-income countries. This largely descriptive and historical chapter is helpful to provide the situation of reference discussed throughout the thesis. With the next chapters, we shift to economic theory. Our chapter 2 provides a review of recent developments in the economics of institutions; it sketches the overall theoretical background and allows us to situate our own research program in this panorama. The next four chapters are dedicated to concepts that are helpful for the economic study of public health systems, concepts that we draw from this literature. Our chapters 3 and 4 introduce respectively the concepts of institutions and organisations. In our chapters 5 and 6, we highlight how institutions structure property rights and how property rights set incentives to economic agents. This tedious application of organisational economics to our case of study allows us to highlight a few pending conceptual questions in institutional economic theories. In our chapter 7, we p, Les pays à faible revenu font face à un certain nombre de défis sanitaires auxquels les services publics de santé répondent avec difficulté. Cette faible performance est traditionnellement attribuée à un manque de ressources. Notre hypothèse est qu'elle découle aussi de la façon même dont ces systèmes publics de santé sont établis sur le plan institutionnel. Notre conviction est que la dimension institutionnelle n’a pas été appréciée à sa juste valeur jusqu’à présent dans les théories et politiques organisant les services de santé dans les pays à faible revenu. Notre stratégie a consisté à exploiter les développements récents dans la théorie économique des organisations pour mieux comprendre les questions scientifiques et les enjeux politiques sous-jacents. Notre recherche est organisée en deux parties. La première partie vise principalement à valider l’utilisation des sciences économiques (et ses branches institutionnelles en particulier) pour analyser l’organisation des systèmes publics de santé. Cette validation est faite en étapes successives. Dans notre premier chapitre, nous introduisons les systèmes publics de santé tels qu’ils sont observables dans les zones rurales des pays pauvres. Ce chapitre descriptif et historique vise à fournir la situation de référence discutée tout au long de la thèse. Avec les chapitres suivants, nous nous tournons vers la théorie économique. Dans notre chapitre 2, nous passons en revue les développements récents en économie organisationnelle. Nous esquissons le cadre théorique général et pouvons ainsi situer notre propre programme de recherche. Les quatre chapitres suivants sont consacrés aux concepts nécessaires pour l’étude économique des systèmes publics de santé. Dans les chapitres 3 et 4, nous présentons respectivement les concepts d’institution et d’organisation. Dans nos chapitres 5 et 6, nous présentons comment les institutions structurent les droits de propriété et comment ces derniers établissent des incitations pour les, (ECON 3) -- UCL, 2009

A benchmark AK optimal growth model with maintenance expenditures and endogenous utilization of capital is considered within an explicit vintage capital framework. Scrapping is endogenous, and the model allows for a clean distinction between age and usage dependent capital depreciation and obsolescence. It is also shown that in this set-up past investment profille completely determines the size of current maintenance expenditures. Among other findings, a closed-form solution to optimal dynamics is provided taking advantage of very recent development in optimal control of infinite dimensional systems. More importantly, and in contrast to the pre-existing literature, we study investment and maintenance co-movements without any postulated ad-hoc depreciation function. In particular, we find that optimal investment and maintenance do move together in the short-run in response to neutral technological shocks, which seems to be more consistent with the data.

We study a Ramsey problem in infinite and continuous time and space. The problem is discounted both temporally and spatially. Capital flows to locations with higher marginal return. We show that the problem amounts to optimal control of parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs). We rely on the existing related mathematical literature to derive the Pontryagin conditions. Using explicit representations of the solutions to the PDEs, we first show that the resulting dynamic system gives rise to an ill-posed problem in the sense of Hadamard. We then turn to the spatial Ramsey problem with linear utility. The obtained properties are significantly different from those of the nonspatial linear Ramsey model due to the spatial dynamics induced by capital mobility.

The burden sharing of pollution abatement costs raises the issue of how the costs are supported by entities (regions or industries) of a country that decides to reduce pollution, e.g., in the Kyoto Protocol context. This paper explores this issue in the framework of a dynamic endogenous growth 2 sectors - 2 regions - 2 inputs Heckscher-Ohlin model of a small open economy with an international tradable permits market. Given an "emission-based grand-fathering" sharing rule, capital accumulation is more negatively affected by the environmental policy in the energy intensive sector if energy and capital are complementary. But the picture could be different in terms of total sectoral revenue, depending on the evolution of prices. Finally, we show that the impact of environmental policy at the regional level depends crucially on the evolution of regional specialization patterns.

Firms protected by antidumping measures do not unequivocally benefit from them. Antidumping protection benefits non-exporters active on the protected market by raising their domestic sales, but hurts exporters of similar products as the protected ones. Export sales of protected firms fall by almost 8% compared to a relevant control group of unprotected firms. This effect more than doubles for firms that are global, i.e. firms with foreign affiliates. Measured at the product-level, extra-EU exports of goods protected by antidumping fall by 36% while exports to target countries fall by as much as 66% following protection. Protection also has an effect on the extensive margin, by raising the probability to start exporting for firms that were initially non-exporters. Existing exporters face a higher probability to stop exporting during protection. Finally, we find that the productivity of exporters falls while that of non-exporters rises during antidumping protection. We offer a number of plausible explanations for our findings that stem from the heterogeneous firm literature. We also discuss the importance of our findings for policy.

We study how mortality reductins and income growth interact, looking at their relationship prior to the Industrial Revolution, when income per capita was stagnant. We Þrst present a model of individual medical spending giving a rationale for individual health expenditures even when medicine was not effective in postponing death. We then explain the rise of effective medicine by a learning process function of expenditures in health. The rise in effective medicine can then be linked to the take-off of the eighteenth century through life expectancy increases, and fostered capital accumulation. The rise of effective medicine has also an impact on the relation between growth and inequality and on the intergenerational persistence of differences in income. These channels are operative through differential mortality induced by medicine effectiveness that turns out to determines a differential in the propensity to save among income groups.

This thesis organizes three contributions on the econometrics of duration in the context of high frequency financial data. We provide existence conditions and analytical expressions of the moments of Log-ACD models. We focus on the dispersion index and the autocorrelation function and compare them with those of ACD and SCD models We apply the effcient importance sampling (EIS) method for computing the high-dimensional integral required to evaluate the likelihood function of the stochastic conditional duration (SCD) model. We compare EIS-based ML estimation with QML estimation based on the Kalman filter. We find that EIS- ML estimation is more precise statistically, at a cost of an acceptable loss of quickness of computations. We illustrate this with simulated and real data. We show also that the EIS-ML method is easy to apply to extensions of the SCD model. We carry out a nonparametric analysis of financial durations. We make use of an existing algorithm to describe nonparametrically the dynamics of the process in terms of its lagged realizations and of a latent variable, its conditional mean. The devices needed to effectively apply the algorithm to our dataset are presented. We show that: on simulated data, the nonparametric procedure yields better estimates than the ones delivered by an incorrectly specified parametric method, while on a real dataset, the nonparametric analysis can convey information on the nature of the data generating process that may not be captured by the parametric specification., (ECON 3) -- UCL, 2009

This thesis aims at exploring different economic implications of international migration. Its first chapter is devoted to the description of a calibrated model of the world economy, which shows the importance of taking into account international capital mobility between world regions. In a context of global aging, demographic differences among regions could result in increased trade trough international capital movements that might improve economic outcomes compared to a situation of financial autarky. This chapter sets a path for a migration analysis within a world model. The second chapter investigates the impact of immigration on the sustainability of pension systems in North-America and Western Europe. It is found that increased immigration yields only small fiscal gains and that both a selective, with a majority of high-skilled immigrants, and a non-selective immigration policy, with a majority of low-skilled immigrants, induce similar tax cuts. The third chapter assesses the implications of various direct and indirect effects of high-skilled emigration on migrants' sending regions. It reconfirms the important role of remittances in raising the income of those left behind. Moreover, a high-skilled diaspora may greatly benefit domestic production by reducing information-related risks and bringing in more foreign direct investments, while the so-called ``brain gain" effect acts to reduce the income disparity between workers of different skills. Chapter four analyzes the link between climate change and international migration. A two-country model with endogenous climate change is employed, in which the production in the North generates climate change which negatively affects the productivity of the South. The main findings are that climate change will increase migration and that small impacts of climate change have significant impacts on the number of migrants. Finally, chapter five studies how high- and low- skilled migration affect fertility and human capital in, Cette thèse vise à explorer plusieurs implications économiques de la migration internationale. Le premier chapitre est consacré à la description d’un modèle calibré sur l’économie mondiale, qui montre l’importance de la prise en compte de la mobilité internationale du capital entre les différentes régions du monde. Dans un monde en vieillissement, les disparités démographiques entre régions pourraient conduire à un accroissement des échanges à travers des mouvements internationaux de capitaux qui amélioreraient les performances économiques par rapport à une situation d’autarcie financière. Ce chapitre ouvre la voie à une analyse de la migration dans le cadre d’un modèle mondial. Le deuxième chapitre examine l’impact de l’immigration sur la viabilité des systèmes de pension en Amérique du Nord et en Europe de l’Ouest. Les résultats suggèrent qu’une immigration accrue apporte des gains fiscaux minimaux et que des politiques d’immigration sélective, avec une majorité d’immigrés qualifiés, et non-sélective, avec une majorité d’immigrés peu-qualifiés, entrainent des réductions fiscales similaires. Le troisième chapitre évalue les implications de divers effets directs et indirects de l’émigration qualifiée sur les pays d’origine des migrants. Elle reconfirme l’importance du rôle des transferts de fonds dans l’accroissement du revenu de la population restée au pays. De plus, la diaspora qualifiée peut être considérablement bénéfique pour la production domestique à travers la diminution des risques liés à l’information et en favorisant les investissements directs étrangers, tandis que l’effet de ``brain gain’’ a un impact réducteur sur l’inégalité des revenus entre travailleurs de qualifications différentes. Le quatrième chapitre étudie la relation entre changement climatique et migration internationale. L’analyse est effectuée dans un modèle à deux pays avec changement climatique endogène, où la production du Nord génère un changement climatique qui affecte négativement la, (ECON 3) -- UCL, 2009

The Ramsey model of economic growth is revisited from the point of view of viability. A viable state is a state from which there exists at least one tra jectory that remains in the set of constraints of minimal consumption and positive wealth. Viability is presented with a constraint of minimal consumption, then with an additional criterion of economic sustainability. The comparison of viability kernels with or without sustainability shows how much consumption should be reduced and when. The viable-optimal solution in the sense of inter-temporal consumption is obtained on the viability boundary of an auxiliary system. Technological progress works against population growth to favor the possibility for a given state of being viable or viable-sustainable.

We develop a tractable general theory for the study of the economic and demographic impact of epidemics, and notably its distributional consequences. To this end, we develop a three-period overlapping generations model where altruistic parents choose optimal health expenditures for their children and themselves. The survival probability of (junior) adults and children depends on such investments. Agents can be skilled or unskilled. The model emphasizes the role of orphans. Orphans are not only penalized in the face of death, they are also penalized in the access to education. Epidemics are modeled as one period exogenous shocks to the survival rates. We specifically study the consequence of a negative shock on adult survival rates in the first period. We prove that while the epidemic has no permanent effect on income distribution, it can perfectly alter it in the short and medium run. In particular, the epidemic may imply a worsening in the short and medium run of both economic performance and income distribution. Two opposite mechanisms are isolated: first, the survival rate of children at the end of the first period decreases relatively more in poor than in wealthy families. This decreases the proportion of junior adults with a low endowment of human capital in period 2. Secondly, the number of orphans in period 1 increases in both families. This decreases the proportion of junior adults with a low endowment of human capital in period 2. Therefore, the proportion of the unskilled will necessarily increase in the medium run if orphans are too penalized in the access to a high level of education.

This paper develops a theory of optimal fertility behavior under mortality shocks. In an OLG model, young adults determine their optimal fertility, labor supply and life-cycle consumption with both exogenous child and adult mortality risks. We show that a rise in adult mortality exerts an ambiguous effect on both net and total fertility in a general equilibrium framework, while child mortality shocks unambiguously lead to a rise in total fertility, leaving net fertility unchanged. We complement our theory with an empirical analysis using a sample of 39 Sub-Saharan (SSA) countries over the 1980-2004 period, examining the overall effects of the child and adult mortality channels on both total and net fertility. We find child mortality to exert a robust, positive impact on total fertility but no impact on net fertility, whereas a rise in adult mortality is found to negatively influence both total and net fertility, whereas a rise in adult mortality is found to negatively influence both total and net fertility. Given the particular demographic profile of the HIV/AIDS epidemic (killing essentially young, active adults), we then conclude in favor of an ambiguous negative effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on net fertility in SSA.

The aim of the present paper is to assess the new classical/real business cycle revolution, which dethroned Keynesian macroeconomics. In its first part, I critically discuss the microfoundations requirement that constitutes a cornerstone of the new approach and suggest an alternative, softer, formulation of it. The conclusion of this discussion is that the new classical/real business cycle revolution marked a transition from a soft to a demanding understanding of the microfoundations requirement. In the second part of the paper, I present additional salient traits of the new classical and the real business cycle stages of the revolution. While each of these stages brought a specific contribution to the revolution, I emphasize the decisive role played by Kydland and Prescott in re-orienting the type of work in which macroeconomists were engaged. Finally, in part three, I ponder upon the causes of this revolution. After presenting and assessing Prescott’s and Lucas’s accounts of the factors which gave rise to the new approach, I venture into muddier waters by raising the question of whether a political agenda underpinned the NC/RBC revolution.

This paper presents and assesses the recent application of models in the Real Business Cycle (RBC) tradition to the analysis of the Great Depression of the 1930s. The main conclusion is that the breaking of the depression taboo has been a desirable completion of the cliometric revolution: no historic event should be exempt from a dispassionate quantitative analysis. On the other hand, the substantive contribution of RBC models is not yet sufficient to establish a new historiography of the Great Depression.

The socioeconomic development of most European countries has been largely shaped by social dialogue, by negotiations between employers and workers representatives. To that respect, Belgium has played a pivotal role. The Belgian post-WW2 institutions, aimed at fostering social dialogue, are often alluded to as a reference. In sixty years, these institutions have changed, along with the transformations of the economic, social and political context. We study here the dynamical movement that simultaneously transforms the social dialogue, on the one hand, and the historical context in which it is anchored, on the other. We contrast two thirty-year periods: the golden age, followed by an age of upheaval. The former is characterized by the setting up and the extension of a coherent model while the latter rather appears as a defensive withdrawal in a context of crisis and of socioeconomic upheaval. In the midst of the turmoil, the social partners uneasily seek for meaningful responses.

The current unemployment insurance and employment protection legislation were set up in an economic environment in which relationships between workers and firms were typically lon-lastingand stable. The increasing globalisation of the economy and the rapid technological and organisational changes require more flexibility of both workers and firms leading to career paths which are much more volatile both within and between firms. Current institutions must be therefore urgently reformed to reconcile this new need of more flexibility with that of security for workers. The call for ”flexicurity” is not new, but there is no unanimity on the corresponding institutional model it implies. Rather than proposing a reform on the basis of existing institutions abroad, we propose a reform that is explicitly guided by economic principles. In a nutshell, we propose to transform the bulk of the advance notice payments by a unique lay-off contribution, independently of the type of worker (blue or white-collar) and type of contract (temporary or open-]ended). A severance payment, less important than the lay-off contribution, is due to cover the psychic cost related to dismissal. In order to make the employer accountable for the costs he imposes on society, the lay-off contribution should be made proportional to the cumulative past earnings since the moment that the worker was hired in the firm. This contribution would be used not only to finance a supplement to the current unemployment benefits, but also, as to make the worker more accountable, to finance active labour market policies for the unemployed. Aside of this scheme, it makes sense to generalise the current scheme of temporary unemployment benefits for blue-collar workers to white-collar workers, but only to the extent that one introduces experience rating in the funding, so that again the employers are made accountable for the social costs that they induce by these temporary lay-offs.

The aim of this paper is to elucidate Keynes's Marshallian lineage. I argue that the result of bringing out the Marshallian antecedents of the General Theory highlights Keynes’s failure to achieve the theoretical project he was striving at, namely to demonstrate an involuntary unemployment result in the arising of which nominal wage rigidity would play no role. In the first part of the paper, I reexamine Marshall’s theory of value. This section’s main conclusion is that no theory of unemployment is to be found in Marshall’s writings. In section two, I study the literature spanning from Marshall to Keynes, focusing on Beveridge, Hicks and Pigou, in order to see whether the lacuna present in Marshall’s writings happened to be filled. Documenting the emergence of the notion of frictional unemployment, I come to the conclusion that its arising went along with little theoretical elaboration. The third and last part of the paper is a critical reflection on the General Theory. I start by making the point that Keynes’s theory of effective demand ought to be viewed as an extension of Marshall’s analysis of firms’ short-period production decisions. This enables me to bring out the decisive role played by the wage rigidity assumption in Keynes’s reasoning. I claim that, except for this assumption, the differences between ‘effective demand à la Marshall’ and ‘effective demand à la Keynes’ are minor. I close my analysis of Keynes’s reasoning by showing that no real removal of the nominal rigidity assumption is to be found in chapter 19 of the General Theory.

This paper empirically studies emigration patterns of skilled males and females. In the most relevant model accounting for interdependencies between women and men’s decisions, we derive the gendered responses to traditional push factors. Females and males do not respond with the same intensity to the traditional determinants of labor mobility and gender-specific characteristics of the population at origin. Moreover, being other factors equal, the female willingness to follow the spouse seems to be much more pronounced with respect to the male one. From a quantitative perspective, our model reveals that skilled women are not more migratory than skilled men internationally, thus rejecting the existence of a genetic or social gender gap in international skilled migration.