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Abstract Recent temperature extremes have shattered previously observed records, reaching intensities that were inconceivable before the events. Could the possibility of an event with such unprecedented intensity as the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave have been foreseen, based on climate model information available before the event? Could the scientific community have quantified its potential intensity based on the current generation of climate models? Here, we demonstrate how an ensemble boosting approach can be used to generate physically plausible storylines of a heatwave hotter than observed in the Pacific Northwest. We also show that heatwaves of much greater intensities than ever observed are possible in other locations like the Greater Chicago and Paris regions. In order to establish confidence in storylines of ‘black swan’-type events, different lines of evidence need to be combined along with process understanding to make this information robust and actionable for stakeholders.

This study investigates how warm conveyor belts (WCBs) will change in a future climate. WCBs are strongly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones that are responsible for most of their precipitation. In conjunction with the cloud formation, latent heat is released, which has an impact on the potential vorticity distribution and therefore on the atmospheric circulation in the middle and upper troposphere. Because of these and other impacts of WCBs, it is of great importance to investigate changes in their frequencies, regions of occurrence, and physical characteristics in a warmer climate. To this aim, future climate simulations (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 – RCP8.5 – scenario; 2091–2100) are performed with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and compared to present-day climate (1991–1999). Trajectories are calculated based on 6-hourly 3D wind fields, and WCBs are identified as trajectories that ascend at least 600 hPa in 2 d. WCBs are represented reasonably well in terms of location and occurrence frequency compared to WCBs in the ERA-Interim reanalyses. In a future climate, WCB inflow regions in the North Pacific are systematically shifted northward in winter, which is in agreement with the northward shift of the storm track in this region. In the North Atlantic, increased frequencies are discernible in the southwest and there is a decrease to the south of Iceland. Finally, in the Southern Hemisphere, WCB frequencies increase in the South Atlantic in both seasons and to the east of South Africa and the Indian Ocean in June–July–August (JJA). These changes are partly consistent with corresponding changes in the occurrence frequencies of extratropical cyclones, i.e. the driving weather systems of WCBs. Changes are also found in the WCB characteristics, which have implications for WCB impacts in a future climate. The increase in inflow moisture in the different regions and seasons – ∼23 %–33 % (∼14 %–20 %) in winter (summer) – leads to (i) an increase in WCB-related precipitation – ∼13 %–23 % (∼7 %–28 %) in winter (summer) – especially in the upper percentiles and thus a possible increase in extreme precipitation related to WCBs, (ii) a strong increase in diabatic heating – ∼20 %–27 % (∼17 %–33 %) in winter (summer) – in the mid-troposphere, and (iii) a higher outflow level – ∼10 K (∼10–16 K) in winter (summer) – which favours WCBs more strongly interacting with the upper-level Rossby waveguide. In summary, by investigating a distinct weather system, the WCB, and how it changes in its occurrence frequency and characteristics in a future climate, this study provides new insights into the dynamics and impacts of climate change in the extratropical storm track regions.

Abstract Heavy precipitation and associated flooding during the cold season, such as the 1993 flood in central Europe (CEU), are a major threat to society and ecosystems. Due to the lack of long homogenous climate data and methodological frameworks, it is challenging to estimate how extreme precipitation could get and what the physical drivers are. This study presents two complementary strategies to extrapolate beyond the precipitation records: (a) statistical estimates based on fitting generalized extreme value distributions, providing their probabilistic information on return periods and, (b) ensemble boosting, a model‐based re‐initialization of heavy precipitation in large ensembles, providing a physical coherent storyline in space and time, however, with no direct quantification of its probability. Both show that 3‐day accumulated precipitation maxima can be substantially exceeded over CEU of around 30%–40%, but even higher magnitudes cannot be ruled out in the near future. An empirical orthogonal function analysis reveals that certain sea level pressure patterns, partly reminding of atmospheric rivers are more often associated with heavy precipitation than more moderate events. Additionally, ensemble boosting is a suitable tool for case studies to analyze how extreme heavy precipitation as for the event in 1993 can be simulated. By boosting a 1993‐analog, one‐quarter of the resulting storylines show increased rainfall than observed, due to a stronger north‐south pressure gradient that may have exacerbated the flooding. Overall, the precipitation estimates demonstrate that ensemble boosting is a complementary method to statistical tools and suitable for stress testing, for example, infrastructure protection measures against potentially unseen heavy precipitation events.

In this study, we evaluate a set of high-resolution (25–50 km horizontal grid spacing) global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), developed as part of the EU-funded PRIMAVERA (Process-based climate simulation: Advances in high resolution modelling and European climate risk assessment) project, and from the EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) regional climate models (RCMs) (12–50 km horizontal grid spacing) over a European domain. It is the first time that an assessment of regional climate information using ensembles of both GCMs and RCMs at similar horizontal resolutions has been possible. The focus of the evaluation is on the distribution of daily precipitation at a 50 km scale under current climate conditions. Both the GCM and RCM ensembles are evaluated against high-quality gridded observations in terms of spatial resolution and station density. We show that both ensembles outperform GCMs from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which cannot capture the regional-scale precipitation distribution properly because of their coarse resolutions. PRIMAVERA GCMs generally simulate precipitation distributions within the range of EURO-CORDEX RCMs. Both ensembles perform better in summer and autumn in most European regions but tend to overestimate precipitation in winter and spring. PRIMAVERA shows improvements in the latter by reducing moderate-precipitation rate biases over central and western Europe. The spatial distribution of mean precipitation is also improved in PRIMAVERA. Finally, heavy precipitation simulated by PRIMAVERA agrees better with observations in most regions and seasons, while CORDEX overestimates precipitation extremes. However, uncertainty exists in the observations due to a potential undercatch error, especially during heavy-precipitation events. The analyses also confirm previous findings that, although the spatial representation of precipitation is improved, the effect of increasing resolution from 50 to 12 km horizontal grid spacing in EURO-CORDEX daily precipitation distributions is, in comparison, small in most regions and seasons outside mountainous regions and coastal regions. Our results show that both high-resolution GCMs and CORDEX RCMs provide adequate information to end users at a 50 km scale.

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO2 emissions. By 2150, CO2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5 ∘C warming on the other.

In the last decades, extremely hot summers (hereafter extreme summers) have challenged societies worldwide through their adverse ecological, economic and public-health effects. In this study, extreme summers are identified at all grid points in the Northern Hemisphere in the upper tail of the June–July–August (JJA) seasonal mean 2 m temperature (T2m) distribution, separately in ERA-Interim (ERAI) re-analyses and in 700 simulated years with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble for present-day climate conditions. A novel approach is introduced to characterise the substructure of extreme summers, i.e. to elucidate whether an extreme summer is mainly the result of the warmest days being anomalously hot, of the coldest days being anomalously mild or of a general shift towards warmer temperatures on all days of the season. Such a statistical characterisation can be obtained from considering so-called rank day anomalies for each extreme summer – that is, by sorting the 92 daily mean T2m values of an extreme summer and by calculating, for every rank, the deviation from the climatological mean rank value of T2m. Applying this method in the entire Northern Hemisphere reveals spatially strongly varying extreme-summer substructures, which agree remarkably well in the re-analysis and climate model data sets. For example, in eastern India the hottest 30 d of an extreme summer contribute more than 65 % to the total extreme-summer T2m anomaly, while the colder days are close to climatology. In the high Arctic, however, extreme summers occur when the coldest 30 d are substantially warmer than they are climatologically. Furthermore, in roughly half of the Northern Hemisphere land area, the coldest third of summer days contributes more to extreme summers than the hottest third, which highlights that milder-than-normal coldest summer days are a key ingredient of many extreme summers. In certain regions, e.g. over western Europe and western Russia, the substructure of different extreme summers shows large variability and no common characteristic substructure emerges. Furthermore, we show that the typical extreme-summer substructure in a certain region is directly related to the region's overall T2m rank day variability pattern. This indicates that in regions where the warmest summer days vary particularly strongly from one year to the other, these warmest days are also particularly anomalous in extreme summers (and analogously for regions where variability is largest for the coldest days). Finally, for three selected regions, thermodynamic and dynamical causes of extreme-summer substructures are briefly discussed, indicating that, for instance, the onset of monsoons, physical boundaries like the sea ice edge or the frequency of occurrence of Rossby wave breaking strongly determines the substructure of extreme summers in certain regions.

To make sound decisions in the face of climate change, government agencies, policymakers and private stakeholders require suitable climate information on local to regional scales. In Switzerland, the development of climate change scenarios is strongly linked to the climate adaptation strategy of the Confederation. The current climate scenarios for Switzerland CH2018 - released in form of six user-oriented products - were the result of an intensive collaboration between academia and administration under the umbrella of the National Centre for Climate Services (NCCS), accounting for user needs and stakeholder dialogues from the beginning. A rigorous scientific concept ensured consistency throughout the various analysis steps of the EURO-CORDEX projections and a common procedure on how to extract robust results and deal with associated uncertainties. The main results show that Switzerland’s climate will face dry summers, heavy precipitation, more hot days and snow-scarce winters. Approximately half of these changes could be alleviated by mid-century through strong global mitigation efforts. A comprehensive communication concept ensured that the results were rolled out and distilled in specific user-oriented communication measures to increase their uptake and to make them actionable. A narrative approach with four fictitious persons was used to communicate the key messages to the general public. Three years after the release, the climate scenarios have proven to be an indispensable information basis for users in climate adaptation and for downstream applications. Potential for extensions and updates has been identified since then and will shape the concept and planning of the next scenario generation in Switzerland.

Atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are at unprecedented, record-high levels compared to the last 800 000 years. Those elevated GHG concentrations warm the planet and – partially offset by net cooling effects by aerosols – are largely responsible for the observed warming over the past 150 years. An accurate representation of GHG concentrations is hence important to understand and model recent climate change. So far, community efforts to create composite datasets of GHG concentrations with seasonal and latitudinal information have focused on marine boundary layer conditions and recent trends since the 1980s. Here, we provide consolidated datasets of historical atmospheric concentrations (mole fractions) of 43 GHGs to be used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 6 (CMIP6) experiments. The presented datasets are based on AGAGE and NOAA networks, firn and ice core data, and archived air data, and a large set of published studies. In contrast to previous intercomparisons, the new datasets are latitudinally resolved and include seasonality. We focus on the period 1850–2014 for historical CMIP6 runs, but data are also provided for the last 2000 years. We provide consolidated datasets in various spatiotemporal resolutions for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), as well as 40 other GHGs, namely 17 ozone-depleting substances, 11 hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), 9 perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) and sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2). In addition, we provide three equivalence species that aggregate concentrations of GHGs other than CO2, CH4 and N2O, weighted by their radiative forcing efficiencies. For the year 1850, which is used for pre-industrial control runs, we estimate annual global-mean surface concentrations of CO2 at 284.3 ppm, CH4 at 808.2 ppb and N2O at 273.0 ppb. The data are available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/ and http://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/cmip6. While the minimum CMIP6 recommendation is to use the global- and annual-mean time series, modelling groups can also choose our monthly and latitudinally resolved concentrations, which imply a stronger radiative forcing in the Northern Hemisphere winter (due to the latitudinal gradient and seasonality).

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios.Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 °C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 °C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 °C scenario.

A new approach is presented to estimate the amounts and spatial distribution of groundwater recharge based on the groundwater dating tracers 3H, 3He and CFC‐11. The method was applied in a groundwater project in southwest Niger (Africa). The model developed to simulate observed tracer concentrations is composed of a model to account for the water transported through the unsaturated zone followed by a dispersion box model to determine the age distribution of the sampled groundwater volume. For the unsaturated zone transport, a one‐dimensional approach was used considering tracer transport in the water and the gas phase. The calculated tracer concentrations at the groundwater table are then used as input functions for the subsequent dispersion box model. Using a dispersion box model it is possible to outline regions where recharge preferably occurs. To account for the high variance of soil properties in space, a Monte Carlo simulation was performed.The results show estimated recharge rates of 50–300 mm year−1 (±50%). The large error bars are mainly due to high uncertainties of the soil parameters. Therefore, a better estimation of the average soil moisture would lead to more accurate results. The resulting spatial distribution of dispersion parameters indicates that recharge mainly occurs in the ancient riverbeds where surface runoff from the laterite plateaux is gathered and leads to spatially limited high recharge events. Where the soil is not permeable enough, these events lead to the observed temporary or permanent lakes. This new conceptual view of major recharge mechanisms contradicts the former picture of recharge occurring in this region, but it coincides better with other independent measurements, such as the stable isotope ratios of water. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grassland landscapes are important ecosystems in East Africa, providing habitat and grazing grounds for wildlife and livestock and supporting pastoralism, an essential part of the agricultural sector. Since future grassland availability directly affects the future mobility needs of pastoralists and wildlife, we aim to model changes in the distribution of key grassland species under climate change. Here we combine a global and regional climate model with a machine learning-based species distribution model to understand the impact of regional climate change on different key grass species. The application of a dynamical downscaling step allows us to capture the fine-scale effects of the region's complex climate, its variability and future changes. We show that the co-occurrence of the analysed grass species is reduced in large parts of eastern Africa, and particularly in the Turkana region, under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario for the last 30 years of the 21 st century. Our results suggest that future climate change will alter the natural resource base, with potentially negative impacts on pastoralism and wildlife in East Africa., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2024.)

Forests can store large amounts of carbon and provide essential ecosystem services. Massive tree planting is thus sometimes portrayed as a panacea to mitigate climate change and related impacts. Recent controversies about the potential benefits and drawbacks of forestation have centered on the carbon storage potential of forests and the local or global thermodynamic impacts. Here we discuss how global-scale forestation and deforestation change the Earth's energy balance, thereby affect the global atmospheric circulation and even have profound effects on the ocean circulation. We perform multicentury coupled climate model simulations in which preindustrial vegetation cover is either completely forested or deforested and carbon dioxide mixing ratio is kept constant. We show that global-scale forestation leads to a weakening and poleward shift of the Northern mid-latitude circulation, slows-down the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and affects the strength of the Hadley cell, whereas deforestation leads to reversed changes. Consequently, both land surface changes substantially affect regional precipitation, temperature, clouds, and surface wind patterns across the globe. The design process of large-scale forestation projects thus needs to take into account global circulation adjustments and their influence on remote climate., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts-land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

The hydrogeological system of an ecologically sensitive alpine floodplain in the Valle di Blenio, Switzerland, was investigated using hydrochemical and 3H-3He dating methods. Water samples from six wells and from different surface locations were analyzed. The analysis of the concentrations of major ions in conjunction with age determination by the 3H-3He-method allowed the main hydrological properties of the system to be consistently characterized. Two geochemically distinct water zones can be distinguished: Ca-SO4-dominated water from the main river and Ca-HCO3-dominated floodplain water. The floodplain water component characterizes the whole floodplain including the surficial hillslope drainage system. Within the ground water samples, two spatially and temporally different types of water can be determined. A younger (age < 1.5 years), less mineralized water is found in the upper part of the aquifer during the summer season. The underlying aquifer zone contains older and more highly mineralized water. However, the general hydrochemical characterization of both types of ground water is similar. In winter, the water ages increase with decreasing ground water levels. Because precipitation is stored temporarily in the snow cover, the contribution of the younger near-surface ground water decreases, resulting in higher apparent water ages and higher mineralization in the upper zone of the aquifer. Water exchange between the main river and the ground water system is limited to ground water exfiltration from the shallow aquifer zone, whereas the hydrochemical separation of the deeper aquifer zone indicates the isolation of the deeper ground water from the main river.

Noble-gas concentrations in ground water have been used as a proxy for past air temperatures, but the accuracy of this approach has been limited by the existence of a temperature-independent component of the noble gases in ground water, termed 'excess air' whose origin and composition is poorly understood. In particular, the evidence from noble gases in a Brazilian aquifer for a cooling of more than 5 C in tropical America during the Last Glacial Maximum has been called into question. Here we propose a model for dissolved gases in ground water, which describes the formation of excess air by equilibration of ground water with entrapped air in quasi-saturated soils. Our model predicts previously unexplained noble-gas data sets, including the concentration of atmospheric helium, and yields consistent results for the non-atmospheric helium isotopes that are used for dating ground water. Using this model of excess air, we re-evaluate the use of noble gases from ground water for reconstructing past temperatures. Our results corroborate the inferred cooling in Brazil during the Last Glacial Maximum, and indicate that even larger cooling took place at mid-latitudes.

A multitracer study of a small aquifer in northern Switzerland indicates that the atmosphere in central Europe cooled by at least 5 degreesC during the last glacial period. The relation between oxygen isotope ratios (delta18O) and recharge temperatures reconstructed for this period is similar to the present-day one if a shift in the delta18O value of the oceans during the ice age is taken into account. This similarity suggests that the present-day delta18O-temperature relation can be used to reconstruct paleoclimate conditions in northern Switzerland. A gap in calculated groundwater age between about 17,000 and 25,000 years before the present indicates that during the last glacial maximum, local groundwater recharge was prevented by overlying glaciers.