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Nature-based activities have become business constituents of increasing importance in the tourism industry. In this paper, trends in nature-based tourism with the largest commercial potentials are identified by means of surveys with 60 experts in five different countries/regions with a renowned nature-based tourism sector, collected in three rounds based on Delphi methodology. Results show that the trend categories with the highest impact on commercial opportunities within the next 10 years are related to health, sustainability, soft adventure, digitalization, and professionalization. The ability to recognize and deal with such prospects is a key element of an economically successful, but also environmental and socially sustainable nature-based tourism industry. Thus, the identified developments are of crucial importance to business managers, policymakers, managers of nature areas, and planning authorities. Prospects for nature-based tourism: identifying trends with commercial potential

This short report, referred to as Deliverable 1.6 (D1.6), is a summary of key findings, an overview of,and a comparative perspective on relevant governance, institutional and economic frameworks inChina and Europe for urban forests as nature-based solutions (UF-NBS). It bases on work realised inWP1 and on a Sino-European co-design event. In the context of UF-NBS and the CLEARING HOUSEproject, urban forest patterns, governance structures, institutional and economic frameworks areinterlocking at various spatial levels. Task 1.5 merges the key findings of the Tasks 1.1 to 1.4 togetherwith the findings of the exploratory analysis of the case studies (Task 2.1 in WP2; da Schio et al. 2021)and the inputs gathered from the co-design process (Task 3.1; De Vreese et al. 2021) into an analyticalframework for a systematic and participatory study and implementation of UF-NBS and their effectsand impacts on the urban socio-ecological system, including socio-cultural, ecological, and economicaspects. Topics addressed by the analytical framework will include ecosystem patterns andfunctioning, tree- and biodiversity, ecosystem services provisioning, impacts on human wellbeing(including socio-environmental justice, urban liveability, equality, social inclusion and gender andpublic health), climate change adaptation and the cost-effectiveness of UF-NBS in cities and their periurban surroundings. The analytical framework will highlight the contribution of different disciplinesthrough assigned thematic experts from CLEARING HOUSE and give guidance for analysing existingplanning instruments and monitoring schemes. It is preliminary structured in four streams, for thepurpose of splitting and organising the work in WP2 and in the case studies. All four streams areinterconnected, both in terms of the theme they cover and in terms of the activities planned.

Governance, institutional and economic frameworks in China and Europe are considered to be decisive forthe design, implementation and impacts of urban forests as nature-based solutions (UF-NBS). Several linesof inquiry were established to focus the analysis; these were developed in a co-design process with projectpartners. To provide an evidence base for the analysis, case histories of 22 existing projects were collected:16 in Europe and 6 in China. The selection of case histories and countries was motivated by the ambition ofcovering different bio-geographical regions and planning families based on the modified ESPON approachused in the GREEN SURGE FP7 project. We found that governance, institutional and economic frameworks for UF-NBS are still under development.Support was found from the findings of Xie & Bulkeley (2020) who reported that whilst local planningprocesses are assumed to be the instigator of urban (NBS), for European cities project-based actions arepresently preeminent. We concluded that for this to move up the agenda to city strategic developmentplans, which are generally guided from the national, regional, and city level, there is a case for an EU-NBS strategy (including UF-NBS) to influence national thinking. In China, city masterplans set out the high-levelpolicy of the city and all other local plans are subordinate to it. Unlike for its immediate predecessor, theabsence of urban forestry from the Chinese 14th five-year plan is offset by the robust structure of the China National Forest City Development Plan (2018 - 2025). We found that the design, implementation and management of UF-NBS depend on the social, cultural andeconomic context, but that there is added value in the promotion of good practices and successful stories,as well as innovation. Key informants in the case histories were interested to learn from elsewhere. Thecase histories are being uploaded to the NetworkNature/OPPLA platform and shared via networks, notablythe European Forum on Urban Forestry (EFUF) and the International Forest City conference. The engagement of civil society (i.e., social groups, citizens) in UF-NBS is still relatively low. This links to the top-down approach described in the majority of the case histories, with the leading role embedded withinmunicipalities. We have identified a need for widening the scope of the co-design processes involving localresidents and citizen groups. The engagement of the private sector also seems to be falling short ofexpectations. Indeed, the funding of UF-NBS relies to a high degree on municipal funds. This has multipleconsequences in respect of governance arrangements where citizens are recipients, not co-owners and comakers of proposed solutions, and may also reduce the scope of economic innovations. We have also identified that long-term planning should always be considered in the case of UF-NBS, since funds can berestricted to the duration of project inception leading to a loss of NBS functionality if UF-NBS managementdeclines.

Executive summaryResource efficiency, investments and focus on added value• Since launch of the first Finnish Bioeconomy strategy in 2014 the economic output of the bioeconomy has increased particularly in the forest and constructionsectors resulting from larger production volumes. In the future, however, moreemphasis should be put on value-adding investments and production.• Initially, the economic output and social welfare created by bioeconomy were emphasized. Today, also the concern about the changing climate and loss of biodiversity challenge bioeconomy, its raw material sourcing and product life cycles.• Biomass is an abundant yet constrained resource. Investing in new, resourceefficient processes holds significant potential in increasing both the overall production and the value of the existing resource use.Insights and snapshots of future products• A larger share of the forest based value chain could be in Finland when customertailored solutions are designed and produced prior to transportation. Packagingsolutions, textiles, wood construction and lignin based value added productscould be emphasised as examples.• Realising the unutilised potential in conventional agriculture to increase production efficiency and at the same time radically cut down the environmental impactand maintain safety brings significant competitive advantage. The potential canbe fully capitalised through the more efficient use of data and advanced digitalsystems in production planning and monitoring.• Emerging food production technologies such as vertical farming, aquaculturebased on water circulation, and cellular agriculture are rapidly developing. In thefuture, they can offer alternative solutions for food production when harnessedbased on solar and other renewable energy production.• Versatility in the energy system is key to increasing resilience in the energy transition currently taking place. The constrained biomass resources available for theenergy sector should be directed to the most valuable uses from the systemicperspective with special focus to industrial uses, and other hard to decarbonisesectors such as long-haul transport including marine and aviation transportation.Also the efficiency of existing biomass-based energy generation can be improvedsignificantly by reducing losses throughout the supply chain.Future services and knowhow• Nature based services are essential part of bioeconomy and offer increasingsources of health and welfare also for urban populations. Nature experiences andnew types of services (soft adventure, packaged products, guidance, products forurban users etc.) form basis for growing tourism and business.• Technology industries offering technology, services and machinery for the bioeconomy is a vital and increasing part of the Finnish bioeconomy and its export.Long traditions and investments in high level education and innovation cultureform foundation for successfully renewing technology ecosystems.