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The Kron reduction is used in power grid modeling when the analysis can -- supposedly -- be restricted to a subset of nodes. Typically, when one is interested in the phases' dynamics, it is common to reduce the load buses and focus on the generators' behavior. The rationale behind this reduction is that voltage phases at load buses adapt quickly to their neighbors' phases and, at the timescale of generators, they have virtually no dynamics. We show that the dynamics of the Kron-reduced part of a network can have a significant impact on the dynamics of the non-reduced buses. Therefore, Kron reduction should be used with care and, depending on the context, reduced nodes cannot be simply ignored. We demonstrate that the noise in the reduced part can unexpectedly affect the non-reduced part, even under the assumption that nodal disturbances are independent. Therefore, the common assumption that the noise in the non-reduced part is uncorrelated may lead to inaccurate assessments of the grid's behavior. To cope with such shortcomings of the Kron reduction, we show how to properly incorporate the contribution of the reduced buses into the reduced model using the Mori-Zwanzig formalism., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures

Physiological networks are usually made of a large number of biological oscillators evolving on a multitude of different timescales. Phase oscillators are particularly useful in the modelling of the synchronization dynamics of such systems. If the coupling is strong enough compared to the heterogeneity of the internal parameters, synchronized states might emerge where phase oscillators start to behave coherently. Here, we focus on the case where synchronized oscillators are divided into a fast and a slow component so that the two subsets evolve on separated timescales. We assess the resilience of the slow component by reducing the dynamics of the fast one and evaluating the variance of the phase deviations when the oscillators in the two components are subject to noise with possibly distinct correlation times. From the general expression for the variance, we consider specific network structures and show how the noise transmission between the fast and slow components is affected. Interestingly, we find that oscillators that are among the most robust when there is only a single timescale, might become the most vulnerable when the system separates into two timescales. We also find that layered networks seem to be insensitive to timescale separations when the noise has homogeneous correlation time., Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures

Malfunctioning equipment, erroneous operating conditions or periodic load variations can cause periodic disturbances that would persist over time, creating an undesirable transfer of energy across the system -- an effect referred to as forced oscillations. Wide-area oscillations may damage assets, trigger inadvertent tripping or control actions, and be the cause of equipment failure. Unfortunately, for wide-area oscillations, the location, frequency, and amplitude of these forced oscillations may be hard to determine. Recently, a data-driven maximum-likelihood-based method was proposed to perform source localization in transmission grids under wide-area response scenarios. However, this method relies on full PMU coverage and all buses having inertia and damping. Here, we extend this method to realistic scenarios which includes buses without inertia or dumping, such as passive loads and inverter-based generators. Incorporating Kron reduction directly into the maximum likelihood estimator, we are able to identify the location and frequency of forcing applied at both traditional generators and loads., Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures

Oscillatory networks subjected to noise are broadly used to model physical and technological systems. Due to their nonlinear coupling, such networks typically have multiple stable and unstable states that a network might visit due to noise. In this manuscript, we focus on the assessment of fluctuations resulting from heterogeneous and correlated noise inputs on Kuramoto model networks. We evaluate the typical, small fluctuations near synchronized states and connect the network variance to the overlap between stable modes of synchronization and the input noise covariance. Going beyond small to large fluctuations, we introduce the indicator mode approximation, that projects the dynamics onto a single amplitude dimension. Such an approximation allows for estimating rates of fluctuations to saddle instabilities, resulting in phase slips between connected oscillators. Statistics for both regimes are quantified in terms of effective noise amplitudes that are compared and contrasted for several noise models. Bridging the gap between small and large fluctuations, we show that a larger network variance does not necessarily lead to higher rates of large fluctuations.

Networks are widely used to model the interaction between individual dynamical systems. In many instances, the total number of units as well as the interaction coupling are not fixed in time, but rather constantly evolve. In terms of networks, this means that the number of nodes and edges change in time. Various properties of coupled dynamical systems essentially depend on the structure of the interaction network, such as their robustness to noise. It is therefore of interest to predict how these properties are affected when the network grows and what is their relation to the growing mechanism. Here, we focus on the time-evolution of the network's Kirchhoff index. We derive closed form expressions for its variation in various scenarios including both the addition of edges and nodes. For the latter case, we investigate the evolution where a single node with one and two edges connecting to existing nodes are added recursively to a network. In both cases we derive relations between the properties of the nodes to which the new one connects, and the global evolution of the network robustness. In particular, we show how different scalings of the Kirchhoff index as a function of the number of nodes are obtained. We illustrate and confirm the theory with numerical simulations of growing random networks., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures

For many coupled dynamical systems, the interaction is the outcome of the measurement that each unit has of the others as e.g. in modern inverter-based power grids, autonomous vehicular platoons or swarms of drones, or it is the results of physical flows. Synchronization among all the components of these systems is of primal importance to avoid failures. The overall operational state of these systems therefore crucially depends on the correct and reliable functioning of the individual elements as well as the information they transmit through the network. Here, we investigate the effect of Byzantine attacks where one unit does not behave as expected, but is controlled by an external attacker. For such attacks, we assess the impact on the global collective behavior of nonlinearly coupled phase oscillators. We relate the synchronization error induced by the input signal to the properties of the attacked node. This allows to anticipate the potential of an attacker and identify which network components to secure., Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures

Forced oscillation event in power grids refers to a state where malfunctioning or abnormally operating equipment causes persisting periodic disturbances in the system. While power grids are designed to damp most of perturbations during standard operations, some of them can excite normal modes of the system and cause significant energy transfers across the system, creating large oscillations thousands of miles away from the source. Localization of the source of such disturbances remains an outstanding challenge due to a limited knowledge of the system parameters outside of the zone of responsibility of system operators. Here, we propose a new method for locating the source of forced oscillations which addresses this challenge by performing a simultaneous dynamic model identification using a principled maximum likelihood approach. We illustrate the validity of the algorithm on a variety of examples where forcing leads to resonance conditions in the system dynamics. Our results establish that an accurate knowledge of system parameters is not required for a successful inference of the source and frequency of a forced oscillation. We anticipate that our method will find a broader application in general dynamical systems that can be well-described by their linearized dynamics over short periods of time., Comment: Main text: 9 pages, 4 figures. Supplementary material: 10 pages, 9 figures

Nonlinear complex network-coupled systems typically have multiple stable equilibrium states. Following perturbations or due to ambient noise, the system is pushed away from its initial equilibrium and, depending on the direction and the amplitude of the excursion, might undergo a transition to another equilibrium. It was recently demonstrated [M. Tyloo, J. Phys. Complex. 3 03LT01 (2022)], that layered complex networks may exhibit amplified fluctuations. Here I investigate how noise with system-specific correlations impacts the first escape time of nonlinearly coupled oscillators. Interestingly, I show that, not only the strong amplification of the fluctuations is a threat to the good functioning of the network, but also the spatial and temporal correlations of the noise along the lowest-lying eigenmodes of the Laplacian matrix. I analyze first escape times on synthetic networks and compare noise originating from layered dynamics, to uncorrelated noise., Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures. Corrected x-axis for Figs. 3-6 and rescaling of the noise

In complex networked systems theory, an important question is how to evaluate the system robustness to external perturbations. With this task in mind, I investigate the propagation of noise in multi-layer networked systems. I find that, for a two layer network, noise originally injected in one layer can be strongly amplified in the other layer, depending on how well-connected are the complex networks in each layer and on how much the eigenmodes of their Laplacian matrices overlap. These results allow to predict potentially harmful conditions for the system and its sub-networks, where the level of fluctuations is important, and how to avoid them. The analytical results are illustrated numerically on various synthetic networks., Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures

Decarbonization in the energy sector has been accompanied by an increased penetration of new renewable energy sources in electric power systems. Such sources differ from traditional productions in that, first, they induce larger, undispatchable fluctuations in power generation and second, they lack inertia. Therefore, substituting new renewables for traditional generation induces stronger and more frequent disturbances and modifies the way disturbances propagate across AC electric power grids. Recent measurements have indeed reported long, non-Gaussian tails in the distribution of local grid-frequency data. Large frequency deviations may induce grid instabilities, leading in worst-case scenarios to cascading failures and large-scale blackouts. In this manuscript, we investigate how correlated noise disturbances, characterized by the cumulants of their distribution, propagate through meshed, high-voltage power grids. We show that for a single source of fluctuations, non-Gaussianities in the form of finite skewness and positive kurtosis of the noise distribution propagate over the entire network when the noise correlation time is larger than the network's intrinsic time scales, but that they vanish over short distances if the noise fluctuates rapidly. We furthermore show that a Berry-Esseen theorem leads to the vanishing of non-Gaussianities as the number of uncorrelated noise sources increases. Our results show that the persistence of non-Gaussian fluctuations of feed-in power have a global impact on power-grid dynamics when they fluctuate over time scales larger than the intrinsic time scales of the system, which, we argue, is the relevant regime in real power grids. Our predictions are corroborated by numerical simulations on realistic models of power grids., Comment: main text 9 pages, 6 figures + suppl. mat 4 pages, 3 figures

In an attempt to provide an efficient method for line disturbance identification in complex networks of diffusively coupled agents, we recently proposed to leverage the frequency mismatch. The frequency mismatch filters out the intricate combination of interactions induced by the network structure and quantifies to what extent the trajectory of each agent is affected by the disturbance. In this previous work, we provided some analytical evidence of its efficiency when the perturbation is assumed to be slow. In the present work, we claim that the frequency mismatch performs actually well for most disturbance regimes. This is shown through a series of simulations and is backed up by an analytical argument. Therefore, we argue that the frequency mismatch is an efficient and elegant tool for line disturbance location in complex networks of diffusively coupled agents., Comment: Accepted at NecSys 2022. 6 pages, 3 figures

Scholarly publications represent at least two benefits for the study of the scientific community as a social group. First, they attest of some form of relation between scientists (collaborations, mentoring, heritage,...), useful to determine and analyze social subgroups. Second, most of them are recorded in large data bases, easily accessible and including a lot of pertinent information, easing the quantitative and qualitative study of the scientific community. Understanding the underlying dynamics driving the creation of knowledge in general, and of scientific publication in particular can contribute to maintaining a high level of research, by identifying good and bad practices in science. In this article, we aim at advancing this understanding by a statistical analysis of publication within peer-reviewed journals. Namely, we show that the distribution of the number of papers published by an author in a given journal is heavy-tailed, but has lighter tail than a power law. Interestingly, we demonstrate (both analytically and numerically) that such distributions match the result of an modified preferential attachment process, where, on top of a Barab\'asi-Albert process, we take finite career span of scientists into account., Comment: Main text: 12 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables. 2 supplementary figures

One of the most fundamental characteristic of a complex system is its size (or volume), which, in many modelling, is represented by the number of its individual components. Complex systems under investigation nowadays are typically large and/or time-varying, rendering their identification challenging. We propose here an accurate and efficient method to determine the size of (i.e., number of agents in) a complex, diffusively coupled dynamical system, that leverages the response of the system to an injected probing signal. For our method to be applicable, we rely on some assumptions on system's characteristics, namely, on the spectrum of the coupling graph and on the basin stability of its steady state(s). Even though such assumptions imply that our method cannot be applied to any instance of diffusively coupled group of dynamical agents, we argue that it covers relevant and interesting examples. Furthermore, the simplicity of the approach and its low computational complexity renders it very interesting for the systems to which it applies., Comment: 10 pages, 2 figures, 2 tables

Consensus algorithms on networks have received increasing attention in recent years for various applications ranging from animal flocking to multi-vehicle co-ordination. Building on the established model for second-order consensus of multi-agent networks, we uncover a mechanism inhibiting the formation of collective consensus states via rather small time-periodic coupling modulations. We treat the model in its spectral decomposition and find analytically that for certain intermediate coupling frequencies parametric resonance is induced on a network level -- at odds with the expected emergence of consensus for very short and long coupling time-scales. Our formalism precisely predicts those resonance frequencies and links them to the Laplacian spectrum of the static backbone network. The excitation of the system is furthermore quantified within the theory of parametric resonance, which we extend to the domain of networks with time-periodic couplings., Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures

The dynamics of systems of interacting agents is determined by the structure of their coupling network. The knowledge of the latter is, therefore, highly desirable, for instance, to develop efficient control schemes, to accurately predict the dynamics, or to better understand inter-agent processes. In many important and interesting situations, the network structure is not known, however, and previous investigations have shown how it may be inferred from complete measurement time series on each and every agent. These methods implicitly presuppose that, even though the network is not known, all its nodes are. Here, we investigate the different problem of inferring network structures within the observed/measured agents. For symmetrically coupled dynamical systems close to a stable equilibrium, we establish analytically and illustrate numerically that velocity signal correlators encode not only direct couplings, but also geodesic distances in the coupling network within the subset of measurable agents. When dynamical data are accessible for all agents, our method is furthermore algorithmically more efficient than the traditional ones because it does not rely on matrix inversion., Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures

Many recent works in control of electric power systems have investigated their synchronization through global performance metrics under external disturbances. The approach is motivated by fundamental changes in the operation of power grids, in particular by the substitution of conventional power plants with new renewable sources of electrical energy. This substitution will simultaneously increase fluctuations in power generation and reduce the available mechanical inertia. It is crucial to understand how strongly these two evolutions will impact grid stability. With very few, mostly numerical exceptions, earlier works on performance metrics had to rely on unrealistic assumptions of grid homogeneity. Here we show that a modified spectral decomposition can tackle that issue in inhomogeneous power grids in cases where disturbances occur on time scales that are long compared to the intrinsic time scales of the grid. We find in particular that the magnitude of the transient excursion generated by disturbances with long characteristic times does not depend on inertia. For continental-size, high-voltage power grids, this corresponds to power fluctuations that are correlated on time scales of few seconds or more. We conclude that power fluctuations arising from new renewables will not require per se the deployment of additional rotational inertia. We numerically illustrate our results on the IEEE 118-Bus test case and a model of the synchronous grid of continental Europe., Comment: Preprint accepted for publication in Control Systems Letters (L-CSS); 6 pages, 2 figures

A wide variety of natural and human-made systems consist of a large set of dynamical units coupled into a complex structure. Breakdown of such systems can have a dramatic impact, as in the case of neurons in the brain or lines in an electric grid, to name but a few. Preventing such catastrophic events requires in particular to be able to detect and locate the source of disturbances as fast as possible. We propose a simple method to identify and locate disturbances in networks of coupled dynamical agents, relying only on time series measurements and on the knowledge of the (possibly Kron-reduced) network structure. The strength and the appeal of the present approach lies in its simplicity paired with the ability to precisely locate disturbances and even to differentiate between line and node disturbances. If we have access to measurement at only a subset of nodes, our method is still able to identify the location of the disturbance if the disturbed nodes are measured. If not, we manage to identify the region of the network where the disturbance occurs., Comment: 16 pages, 6 figures

The aim of this manuscript is to present a non-invasive method to recover the network structure of a dynamical system. We propose to use a controlled probing input and to measure the response of the network, in the spirit of what is done to determine oscillation modes in large electrical networks. For a large class of dynamical systems, we show that this approach is analytically tractable and we confirm our findings by numerical simulations of networks of Kuramoto oscillators. Our approach also allows us to determine the number of agents in the network by probing and measuring a single one of them., Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures

Within the framework of a simple model for social influence, the Taylor model, we analytically investigate the role of stubborn agents in the overall opinion dynamics of networked systems. Similar to zealots, stubborn agents are biased towards a certain opinion and have a major effect on the collective opinion formation process. Based on a modified version of the network Laplacian we derive quantities capturing the transient dynamics of the system and the emerging stationary opinion states. In the case of a single stubborn agent we characterize his/her ability to coherently change a prevailing consensus. For two antagonistic stubborn agents we investigate the opinion heterogeneity of the emerging non-consensus states and describe their statistical properties using a graph metric similar to the resistance distance in electrical networks. Applying the model to synthetic and empirical networks we find while opinion diversity is decreased by small-worldness and favored in the case of a pronounced community structure the opposite is true for the coherence of opinions during a consensus change., Comment: Preprint accepted in Physica A 29 pages, 8 figures

In modern electric power networks with fast evolving operational conditions, assessing the impact of contingencies is becoming more and more crucial. Contingencies of interest can be roughly classified into nodal power disturbances and line faults. Despite their higher relevance, line contingencies have been significantly less investigated analytically than nodal disturbances. The main reason for this is that nodal power disturbances are additive perturbations, while line contingencies are multiplicative perturbations, which modify the interaction graph of the network. They are, therefore, significantly more challenging to tackle analytically. Here, we assess the direct impact of a line loss by means of the maximal Rate of Change of Frequency (RoCoF) incurred by the system. We show that the RoCoF depends on the initial power flow on the removed line and on the inertia of the bus where it is measured. We further derive analytical expressions for the expectation and variance of the maximal RoCoF, in terms of the expectations and variances of the power profile in the case of power systems with power uncertainties. This gives analytical tools to identify the most critical lines in an electric power grid., Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures

In complex network-coupled dynamical systems, two questions of central importance are how to identify the most vulnerable components and how to devise a network making the overall system more robust to external perturbations. To address these two questions, we investigate the response of complex networks of coupled oscillators to local perturbations. We quantify the magnitude of the resulting excursion away from the unperturbed synchronous state through quadratic performance measures in the angle or frequency deviations. We find that the most fragile oscillators in a given network are identified by centralities constructed from network resistance distances. Further defining the global robustness of the system from the average response over ensembles of homogeneously distributed perturbations, we find that it is given by a family of topological indices known as generalized Kirchhoff indices. Both resistance centralities and Kirchhoff indices are obtained from a spectral decomposition of the stability matrix of the unperturbed dynamics and can be expressed in terms of resistance distances. We investigate the properties of these topological indices in small-world and regular networks. In the case of oscillators with homogeneous inertia and damping coefficients, we find that inertia only has small effects on robustness of coupled oscillators. Numerical results illustrate the validity of the theory., Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures

Complex physical systems are unavoidably subjected to external environments not accounted for in the set of differential equations that models them. The resulting perturbations are standardly represented by noise terms. We derive conditions under which such noise terms perturb the dynamics strongly enough that they lead to stochastic escape from the initial basin of attraction of an initial stable equilibrium state of the unperturbed system. Focusing on Kuramoto-like models we find in particular that, quite counterintuitively, systems with inertia leave their initial basin faster than or at the same time as systems without inertia, except for strong white-noise perturbations., Comment: Main text: 5 pages, 4 figures. Supplemental material: 6 pages, 7 figures

Identifying key players in a set of coupled individual systems is a fundamental problem in network theory. Its origin can be traced back to social sciences and led to ranking algorithms based on graph theoretic centralities. Coupled dynamical systems differ from social networks in that, they are characterized by degrees of freedom with a deterministic dynamics and the coupling between individual units is a well-defined function of those degrees of freedom. One therefore expects the resulting coupled dynamics, and not only the network topology, to also determine the key players. Here, we investigate synchronizable network-coupled dynamical systems such as high voltage electric power grids and coupled oscillators. We search for nodes which, once perturbed by a local noisy disturbance, generate the largest overall transient excursion away from synchrony. A spectral decomposition of the coupling matrix leads to an elegant, concise, yet accurate solution to this identification problem. We show that, when the internodal coupling matrix is Laplacian, these key players are peripheral in the sense of a centrality measure defined from effective resistance distances. For linearly coupled dynamical systems such as weakly loaded power grids or consensus algorithms, the nodal ranking is efficiently obtained through a single Laplacian matrix inversion, regardless of the operational synchronous state. We call the resulting ranking index LRank. For heavily loaded power grids or coupled oscillators systems closer to the transition to synchrony, nonlinearities render the nodal ranking dependent on the synchronous state. In this case a weighted Laplacian matrix inversion gives another ranking index, which we call WLRank. Quite surprisingly, we find that LRank provides a faithful ranking even for well developed coupling nonlinearities, corresponding to oscillator angle differences up to $40^o$ approximately., Comment: Submitted on August 28th 2018

In network theory, a question of prime importance is how to assess network vulnerability in a fast and reliable manner. With this issue in mind, we investigate the response to parameter changes of coupled dynamical systems on complex networks. We find that for specific, non-averaged perturbations, the response of synchronous states critically depends on the overlap between the perturbation vector and the eigenmodes of the stability matrix of the unperturbed dynamics. Once averaged over properly defined ensembles of such perturbations, the response is given by new graph topological indices, which we introduce as generalized Kirchhoff indices. These findings allow for a fast and reliable method for assessing the specific or average vulnerability of a network against changing operational conditions, faults or external attacks., Comment: 5 pages + supplemental material Final

In dynamical systems, the full stability of fixed point solutions is determined by their basin of attraction. Characterizing the structure of these basins is, in general, a complicated task, especially in high dimensionality. Recent works have advocated to quantify the non-linear stability of fixed points of dynamical systems through the relative volumes of the associated basins of attraction [D. A. Wiley {\it et al.} Chaos {\bf 16}, 015103 (2006), P. J. Menck {\it et al.} Nat. Phys. {\bf 9}, 89 (2013)]. Here we revisit this issue and propose an efficient numerical method to estimate these volumes. The algorithm first identifies stable fixed points. Second, a set of initial conditions is considered that are randomly distributed at the surface of hypercubes centered on each fixed point. These initial conditions are dynamically evolved. The linear size of each basin of attraction is finally determined by the proportion of initial conditions which converge back to the fixed point. Armed with this algorithm, we revisit the problem considered by Wiley et al. in a seminal paper [D. A. Wiley {\it et al.} Chaos {\bf 16}, 015103 (2006)] that inspired the title of the present manuscript, and consider the equal-frequency Kuramoto model on a cycle. Fixed points of this model are characterized by an integer winding number $q$ and the number $n$ of oscillators. We find that the basin volumes scale as $(1-4q/n)^n$, contrasting with the Gaussian behavior postulated in Wiley et al.'s paper. Finally, we show the applicability of our method to complex models of coupled oscillators with different natural frequencies and on meshed networks., Comment: 11 pages, 12 figures