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The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) represents one of the most important and uncertain contributions to sea level rise in the upcoming centuries. Thwaites Glacier and the Amundsen Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) have been identified as the continent's most critical areas. The retreat of Thwaites Glacier's grounding line - the transition area where ice is no longer grounded and becomes afloat - is the subject of considerable study for modelers as it governs the collapse of the glacier. Recent advances towards the coupling of dynamical ice models with Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models have provided the means to improve grounding line projections by considering solid-Earth processes and their interactions with the cryosphere and hydrosphere. However, the spatial and temporal model resolutions necessary to fully capture these interactions, and the sensitivity to model parametrization, remain elusive. We investigate the grounding line retreat of Thwaites Glacier through 2300 using the parallelized coupled physics capabilities of the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) which capture the complex interactions between solid-Earth, ice-sheets, and ocean. We incorporate realistic climatology, ocean melt rates, and GIA models and we discuss the impact of spatial and temporal model resolution, and solid-Earth parametrization, on the grounding line retreat and sea level change.

The discovery of Antarctica's deepest subglacial trough beneath the Denman Glacier, combined with high rates of basal melt at the grounding line, has caused significant concern over its vulnerability to retreat. Recent attention has therefore been focusing on understanding the controls driving Denman Glacier's dynamic evolution. Here we consider the Shackleton system, comprised of the Shackleton Ice Shelf, Denman Glacier, and the adjacent Scott, Northcliff, Roscoe and Apfel glaciers, about which almost nothing is known. We widen the context of previously observed dynamic changes in the Denman Glacier to the wider region of the Shackleton system, with a multi-decadal time frame and an improved biannual temporal frequency of observations in the last 7 years (2015–2022). We integrate new satellite observations of ice structure and airborne radar data with changes in ice front position and ice flow velocities to investigate changes in the system. Over the 60-year period of observation we find significant rift propagation on the Shackleton Ice Shelf and Scott Glacier and notable structural changes in the floating shear margins between the ice shelf and the outlet glaciers, as well as features indicative of ice with elevated salt concentration and brine infiltration in regions of the system. Over the period 2017–2022 we observe a significant increase in ice flow speed (up to 50 %) on the floating part of Scott Glacier, coincident with small-scale calving and rift propagation close to the ice front. We do not observe any seasonal variation or significant change in ice flow speed across the rest of the Shackleton system. Given the potential vulnerability of the system to accelerating retreat into the overdeepened, potentially sediment-filled bedrock trough, an improved understanding of the glaciological, oceanographic and geological conditions in the Shackleton system are required to improve the certainty of numerical model predictions, and we identify a number of priorities for future research. With access to these remote coastal regions a major challenge, coordinated internationally collaborative efforts are required to quantify how much the Shackleton region is likely to contribute to sea level rise in the coming centuries.

Accurate prediction of sea level rise requires detailed understanding of processes contributing to ice sheet mass loss. Antarctica’s ice shelves are thinning, resulting in enhanced flow of grounded ice due to weakened ice shelf buttressing. Glaciers feeding ice shelves with the highest melt rates are also experiencing some of the most rapid grounding zone retreat. However, these ice shelf melt rates reach values that cannot be explained by ocean forcing alone and are not reproduced in ocean models. We present subglacial hydrology model outputs for four major Antarctic glaciers (Pine Island, Thwaites, Totten and Denman), which flow through the deepest and most extensive Antarctic marine subglacial basins and feed rapidly thinning ice shelves. We show that the areas of high ice shelf melting rates and grounding line retreat coincide closely with areas of high subglacial discharge. We posit that the subglacial discharge provides the missing component driving the high melt rates, and identify positive feedbacks between ice dynamics, steepening of ice shelf basal slope, and subglacial outflow. If surface temperatures increase as expected in Antarctica over the coming decades, surface meltwater could flow to the ice sheet base, as observed in Greenland. The surface meltwater hydrological cycle could therefore contribute to seasonal variations in subglacial meltwater and ice shelf basal melt, leading to accelerated grounding line retreat into Antarctica’s deepest subglacial basins. Invoking these feedbacks could reconcile sea level records and ice sheet model simulations that remain overly stable in warmer periods.

Ice shelf basal melting is the primary mechanism by which the Antarctic Ice Sheet loses mass. While ocean forcing is the principal driver of basal melting, recent evidence suggests that localized melt maxima are located along deep grounding lines where large quantities of subglacial water are being discharged into sub-ice shelf cavities. As any change in the configuration of the grounding line can drastically influence the stress regime of the entire upstream grounded glacier, it is crucial we resolve this subglacial discharge-driven melting in a basal melt rate parameterization that can be used in standalone ice sheet models. Here, we extend the application of a 1D ocean and subglacial discharge driven melt parameterization into a 2D ice sheet model and apply it in forward simulations of Denman Glacier, East Antarctica. Using subglacial hydrology model outputs to constrain the discharge inputs, we find that this parameterization resolves both local maxima and the large-scale spatial distribution of melt beneath the ice shelves buttressing Denman, Totten, Thwaites, and Pine Island glaciers. In the forward simulations of Denman Glacier, the melt contribution from subglacial discharge is required to reproduce contemporary patterns of grounding line retreat and rates volume loss. Under realistic 21st century ocean and subglacial forcing scenarios, Denman and Scott glaciers undergo largescale retreat and Denman Glacier retreats upstream to a ~10 km prograde section of bed topography upon which the grounding line stabilizes. However, under enhanced forcing, it is possible that Denman’s grounding line can overcome this topographic high and retreat inland into the deepest submarine trench on Earth beyond 2100

A major uncertainty in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise is the ice sheet response timescales to ocean warming. Totten Glacier drains a region containing 3.9 m global sea level equivalent and has been losing mass over recent decades. We use an ice sheet model coupled to an ice-shelf cavity combined ocean box and plume model to investigate Totten's response to variable ocean forcing. Totten's grounding line is stable for a limited range of ocean temperatures near current observations (i.e., −0.95°C to −0.75°C), with topography influencing the discharge periodicity. For increases of ≥0.2°C in temperatures beyond this range, grounding line retreat occurs. Variable ocean forcing can reduce retreat relative to constant forcing, and different variability amplitudes can cause centennial-scale delays in retreat through interactions with topography. Our results highlight the need for long-term ocean state observations and to include forcing variability in ice sheet model simulations of future change.

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Containing ~52 m sea level rise equivalent ice mass (SLRe), the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is a major component of the global sea level budget; yet, uncertainty remains in how this ice sheet will respond to enhanced atmospheric and oceanic thermal forcing through the turn of the century. To address this uncertainty, we model the most dynamic catchments of EAIS out to 2100 using the Ice Sheet System Model. We employ three basal melt rate parameterizations to resolve ice-ocean interactions and force our model with anomalies in both surface mass balance and ocean thermal forcing from both CMIP5 and CMIP6 model output. We find that this sector of EAIS gains approximately 10 mm SLRe by 2100 under high emission scenarios (RCP8.5 and SSP585), and loses mass under low emission scenarios (RCP2.6). All basins within the domain either gain mass or are in near mass balance through the 86-year experimental period, except the Aurora Subglacial Basin. The primary region of mass loss in this basin is located within 50 km upstream of Totten Glacier’s grounding line, which loses up to 6 mm SLRe by 2100. Glacial discharge from Totten is modulated by buttress supplied by a 10 km ice plain, located along the southern-most end of Totten’s grounding line. This ice plain is sensitive to brief changes in ocean temperature and once ungrounded, glacial discharge from Totten accelerates by up to 70% of it present day configuration. In all, we present plausible bounds on the contribution of a large sector of EAIS to global sea level rise out to the end of the century and target Totten as the most vulnerable glacier in this region. In doing so, we reduce uncertainty in century-scale global sea level projections and help steer scientific focus to the most dynamic regions of EAIS.

The Totten Glacier, located in the Aurora Subglacial Basin of East Antarctica, drains a catchment containing approximately 3.5 m of global sea level rise equivalent ice mass. The This glacier has been losing mass over recent decades, and modelling studies indicate that it is the most vulnerable glacier in East Antarctica to warming oceans and atmosphere over the coming century. Satellite altimetry shows high internal variability in ocean-forced melting of the Totten Ice Shelf; however, the extent to which this variability signal impacts the upstream ice sheet dynamics, and therefore its mass balance, is unknown. Here we use the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) combined with a plume and basal melting parameterisation called PICOP to investigate the impact of variability in ocean temperature on the evolution of Totten Glacier. We find that the southernmost portion of the Totten Glacier grounding line - from which the majority of the catchment’s ice is channeled - is stable within only a limited range of background ocean temperatures close to present-day values. In the stable simulations, the magnitude of the ice mass flux depends on the extent to which the ice shelf is pinned on a bed topography rumple located approximately 10 km downstream of its grounding line, but the period of the mass flux is decadal to multi-decadal in each simulation, irrespective of the magnitude of the variability in ocean forcing. We further find that the impact of variability in ocean melt rates decreases as the mean background ocean temperature increases, suggesting that the mean state may have a relatively more important role in the evolution of the Totten Glacier than variability in ocean forcing. Our results have implications for detection and attribution of climate change and internal climate variability in modeling studies, and may inform fieldwork campaigns mapping bed topography in the Aurora Subglacial Basin.