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This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, www.isimip.org) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.

The dynamics of marine systems at decadal scales are notoriously hard to predict—hence references to this timescale as the “grey zone” for ocean prediction. Nevertheless, decadal-scale prediction is a rapidly developing field with an increasing number of applications to help guide ocean stewardship and sustainable use of marine environments. Such predictions can provide industry and managers with information more suited to support planning and management over strategic timeframes, as compared to seasonal forecasts or long-term (century-scale) predictions. The most significant advances in capability for decadal-scale prediction over recent years have been for ocean physics and biogeochemistry, with some notable advances in ecological prediction skill. In this paper, we argue that the process of “lighting the grey zone” by providing improved predictions at decadal scales should also focus on including human dimensions in prediction systems to better meet the needs and priorities of end users. Our paper reviews information needs for decision-making at decadal scales and assesses current capabilities for meeting these needs. We identify key gaps in current capabilities, including the particular challenge of integrating human elements into decadal prediction systems. We then suggest approaches for overcoming these challenges and gaps, highlighting the important role of co-production of tools and scenarios, to build trust and ensure uptake with end users of decadal prediction systems. We also highlight opportunities for combining narratives and quantitative predictions to better incorporate the human dimension in future efforts to light the grey zone of decadal-scale prediction.

Sidney J. Holt (1926–2019) was more than a founding father of quantitative fisheries science, and the man who “helped save the great whales.” His accomplishments, over a career spanning seven decades, run deeper: he was a champion of reductionism (i.e. able to identify the factors essential for management) and a systemic thinker who inspired scientists to think critically about marine conservation and management. This article draws on first-hand experiences with Sidney over the last 15 years, when he regularly collaborated with scholars of the ICES Working Group on the History of Fish and Fisheries and the Oceans Past Initiative. Four main themes emerged from our reflections on Sidney’s life and legacy, which constitute ongoing scientific challenges: (1) the suitability of maximum sustainable yield as a target reference point for fisheries management; (2) the future of marine mammal conservation; (3) successful implementation of ecosystem-based marine management; and (4) the value of historical perspectives for conservation and management. We consider Sidney’s work across these themes, in which he readily collaborated, focused on evidence-based solutions, and, where evidence was lacking, he advocated for the “precautionary principle.” We posit there is much that we, and future generations of scientists, can learn from his example.

Transfer efficiency is the proportion of energy passed between nodes in food webs. It is an emergent, unitless property that is difficult to measure, and responds dynamically to environmental and ecosystem changes. Because the consequences of changes in transfer efficiency compound through ecosystems, slight variations can have large effects on food availability for top predators. Here, we review the processes controlling transfer efficiency, approaches to estimate it, and known variations across ocean biomes. Both process-level analysis and observed macroscale variations suggest that ecosystem-scale transfer efficiency is highly variable, impacted by fishing, and will decline with climate change. It is important that we more fully resolve the processes controlling transfer efficiency in models to effectively anticipate changes in marine ecosystems and fisheries resources.

Building trust in science and evidence-based decision-making depends heavily on the credibility of studies and their findings. Researchers employ many different study designs that vary in their risk of bias to evaluate the true effect of interventions or impacts. Here, we empirically quantify, on a large scale, the prevalence of different study designs and the magnitude of bias in their estimates. Randomised designs and controlled observational designs with pre-intervention sampling were used by just 23% of intervention studies in biodiversity conservation, and 36% of intervention studies in social science. We demonstrate, through pairwise within-study comparisons across 49 environmental datasets, that these types of designs usually give less biased estimates than simpler observational designs. We propose a model-based approach to combine study estimates that may suffer from different levels of study design bias, discuss the implications for evidence synthesis, and how to facilitate the use of more credible study designs., Randomised controlled experiments are the gold standard for scientific inference, but environmental and social scientists often rely on different study designs. Here the authors analyse the use of six common study designs in the fields of biodiversity conservation and social intervention, and quantify the biases in their estimates.

Ocean conditions can affect human health in a variety of ways that are often overlooked and unappreciated. Oceans adjacent to Canada are affected by many anthropogenic stressors, with implications for human health and well-being. Climate change further escalates these pressures and can expose coastal populations to unique health hazards and distressing conditions. However, current research efforts, education or training curriculums, and policies in Canada critically lack explicit consideration of these ocean–public health linkages. The objective of this paper is to present multiple disciplinary perspectives from academics and health practitioners to inform the development of future directions for research, capacity development, and policy and practice at the interface of oceans and human health in Canada. We synthesize major ocean and human health linkages in Canada, and identify climate-sensitive drivers of change, drawing attention to unique considerations in Canada. To support effective, sustained, and equitable collaborations at the nexus of oceans and human health, we recommend the need for progress in three critical areas: ( i) holistic worldviews and perspectives, ( ii) capacity development, and ( iii) structural supports. Canada can play a key role in supporting the global community in addressing the health challenges of climate and ocean changes.

16 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables, supplementary data https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102659.-- Code and data availability: The experimental protocol in this paper has no code associated with it. Forcing data from CMIP5 used for the protocol, and the FishMIP model outputs presented in this paper are available on the ISIMIP servers (https://www.isimip.org/), Climate change is warming the ocean and impacting lower trophic level (LTL) organisms. Marine ecosystem models can provide estimates of how these changes will propagate to larger animals and impact societal services such as fisheries, but at present these estimates vary widely. A better understanding of what drives this inter-model variation will improve our ability to project fisheries and other ecosystem services into the future, while also helping to identify uncertainties in process understanding. Here, we explore the mechanisms that underlie the diversity of responses to changes in temperature and LTLs in eight global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP). Temperature and LTL impacts on total consumer biomass and ecosystem structure (defined as the relative change of small and large organism biomass) were isolated using a comparative experimental protocol. Total model biomass varied between −35% to +3% in response to warming, and -17% to +15% in response to LTL changes. There was little consensus about the spatial redistribution of biomass or changes in the balance between small and large organisms (ecosystem structure) in response to warming, an LTL impacts on total consumer biomass varied depending on the choice of LTL forcing terms. Overall, climate change impacts on consumer biomass and ecosystem structure are well approximated by the sum of temperature and LTL impacts, indicating an absence of nonlinear interaction between the models’ drivers. Our results highlight a lack of theoretical clarity about how to represent fundamental ecological mechanisms, most importantly how temperature impacts scale from individual to ecosystem level, and the need to better understand the two-way coupling between LTL organisms and consumers. We finish by identifying future research needs to strengthen global marine ecosystem modelling and improve projections of climate change impacts, JDE was funded by Australian Research Council Discovery Projects DP150102656 and DP190102293. MC, JS, NB and OM received financial support by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 817578 (Triatlas project). CH received funding from the Open Philanthropy Project. NB and OM also acknowledge the support of the French ANR project CIGOEF (grant ANR-17-CE32-0008-01). DPT acknowledges funding from the ISI-MIP project to support a workshop on this topic, and the Jarislowsky Foundation. EDG received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 682602, BIGSEA). RFH was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through the Acciones de Programación Conjunta Internacional (PCIN-2017-115). MC acknowledges the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC). TDE acknowledges funding from the ISIMIP project to support a workshop on this topic and the Fisheries and Oceans Canada Atlantic Fisheries Fund. All authors declare no conflict of interest with respect to this study. JAFS received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 FutureMARES project (#869300).

Coastal regions are essential to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) given their importance for human habitation, resource provisioning, employment, and cultural practice. They are also regions where different ecological, disciplinary, and jurisdictional boundaries both overlap and are obscured. We thus propose the land-sea interface as areas where governance systems are most in need of frameworks for systems analysis to meet the SDGs—which are inherently interconnected— and integrate complex interdependencies between human livelihoods, energy, transport, food production, and nutrient flows (among others). We propose a strategic land-sea governance framework built on the sustainable transitions literature to plan for governance to achieve sustainable development across the land-sea interface. To illustrate our proposal, we compare governance planning processes across four case-based scenarios: an industrialized coastal country, a least developed coastal country, a developing coastal country with local dependencies on ocean resources, and a small island developing state primarily dependent on tourism. Through the lens of aligning governance actors and actions vertically (subnational to national), horizontally (across sectors), and programmatically (from goals to implementation), we propose scales at which governance systems may be misaligned, such as where different agencies that affect marine systems have conflicting visions and goals, leading to stalled progress or counterproductive actions. Where possible, we also highlight strategies to align across scales of high level strategic policy, tactical scale institutional mandates and cooperation, and on the ground activities and operations, such as aligning actors based on an analysis of interdependencies of goals.

Full no-take marine reserves (MRs) act as tools for biodiversity protection that reduce or remove human-induced disturbances and support the recovery of harvested species. Even if not designed specifically for fisheries management, MRs have the potential to enhance locally and distantly fished populations. This study quantified contemporary catch per unit effort (CPUE) of rock lobsters (RLs) with respect to weight and abundance inside and outside two central New Zealand MRs (Kapiti MR established in 1992, Taputeranga MR established in 2008) using commercial fishing methods (pots), and compared it to historical CPUE data. On average, mean CPUE and mean RL size were significantly greater inside than outside at both MRs. Contemporary CPUE at both MRs was approximately twice that of historical CPUE prior to the reserves being established. At Taputeranga, but not at Kapiti MR, we observed a gradient in CPUE with distance from the centre of the reserve. MRs had higher CPUE at reefs that were fully protected (entire reef in the MR) than at partially protected reefs (reef spans the MR boundary), which in turn had higher CPUE than unprotected reefs (entire reef outside the MR). Our results indicate that RL populations are responding positively to protection, but that factors such as the amount of reef area protected and proximity to reserve boundary contribute differently to RL responses. Our findings contribute to the design of MRs with respect to the habitat they protect and to a better understanding of the interactions between MRs and local fisheries.

Sustainably managed wild fisheries support food and nutritional security, livelihoods, and cultures (1). Harmful fisheries subsidies—government payments that incentivize overcapacity and lead to overfishing—undermine these benefits yet are increasing globally (2). World Trade Organization (WTO) members have a unique opportunity at their ministerial meeting in November to reach an agreement that eliminates harmful subsidies (3). We—a group of scientists spanning 46 countries and 6 continents—urge the WTO to make this commitment...

22 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, supplementary information https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9.-- Data availabilityAll standardized forcing variables from the ESMs are available at https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.575744.1; all outputs from the MEMs are available via ISIMIP (https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/data-access/).-- Code availabilityAll code used to analyse simulations is available at https://github.com/Fish-MIP/CMIP5vsCMIP6, Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning, This work was supported by the Jarislowsky Foundation (D.P.T.), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant programme (D.P.T., H.K.L., T.D.E., W.W.L.C., J.P.-A. and V.C.); Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Projects DP170104240 (J.L.B. and C.N.), DP190102293 (J.L.B., C.N., A.J.R., J.D.E. and D.P.T.) and DP150102656 (J.D.E.); the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements 817578 (TRIATLAS) (M.C., J.S., L.S., O.M., L.B., Y.-J.S., N.B. and J.R.), 869300 (FutureMARES) (J.A.F.-S.,Y.-J.S. and M.C.) and 862428 (MISSION ATLANTIC (J.A.F.-S, Y.-J.S. and M.C.); the Spanish National Project ProOceans (PID2020-118097RB-I00) (M.C. and J.S.); the Open Philanthropy Project (C.S.H.); the United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) One Ocean Hub (NE/S008950/1) (K.O.-C. and L.S.); the Simons Foundation (nos. 54993, 645921) (G.L.B.); the Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme (SOMBEE project, ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01) (Y.-J.S. and N.B.); the MEOPAR Postdoctoral Fellowship Award 2020–2021 and the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G) (A.B.-B.); the French ANR project CIGOEF (grant ANR-17-CE32-0008-01) (O.M., L.B. and J.R.); the California Ocean Protection Council Grant C0100400, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE) allocation TG-OCE170017 (D.B. and J.G.); the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NA20OAR4310441, NA20OAR4310442) (C.M.P.). M.C. acknowledges the Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC)

There remain parts of our planet that are seldom visited by humans, let alone scientists. In such locations, crowd-sourced or citizen scientist data can be critical in describing biodiversity and detecting change. Rangitāhua, the Kermadec Islands, are 750 km from the nearest human-habitation. Although our knowledge of this near pristine location has increased with recent biodiversity expeditions, we still lack comprehensive understanding of the marine biodiversity surrounding the islands. In 2015, professional underwater videographers were commissioned to produce a nature documentary focused on Rangitāhua’s reefs. We strategically surveyed the raw documentary video and examined how biodiversity estimates differed from traditional scientific surveys. We uncovered three new fish species records for Rangitāhua, extending the known distribution for each species, two of which are also new records for New Zealand waters. Comparison of documentary video footage with scientific survey methods showed that estimates of reef fish species richness from the documentary video were similar to stationary surveys, but lower than non-stationary surveys. Moreover, all survey methods, including documentary video, captured different fish assemblages, reflecting each method’s particular bias. Overall, we provide a proof-of-concept for how collaborations between scientists and professional natural historians, such as videographers and photographers, can provide valuable biodiversity information.

Monitoring and assessing the effectiveness of no-take zones (NTZs) is critical, not just for the effective management of marine resources, but also for informing and gaining support from community stakeholders. The Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) established a network of coastal NTZs in 2001, yet, to date no study has investigated their effectiveness in protecting and enabling key species to recover. Using data from the Galapagos National Park Directorate annual Lobster Population Monitoring Program from 2012 to 2014, this study evaluated the recovery of the commercially valuable red spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) inside NTZs in the GMR. It was hypothesized that NTZs would present higher lobster abundances or sizes when compared with adjacent fished zones. However, the study found no significant differences in these comparisons. Overall the findings indicate that > 11 years of protection has had no appreciable effect on lobster abundances or sizes inside the NTZs. This paper explores possible reasons for the lack of response in NTZs, and concluded that non-compliance and shortcomings within the enforcement framework of the GMR are the key factors limiting the functionality of these NTZs. Additionally, it also evaluates the limitations of the current monitoring program and highlights the need for a more comprehensive and long-term program to be implemented. As the new zoning scheme for NTZs in the GMR that began in 2016 is still to be determined, this information should be considered by decision makers to improve the effectiveness of NTZs and sustainable management of the GRM's coastal resources.

International audience; Fisheries and aquaculture make a crucial contribution to global food security, nutrition and livelihoods. However, the UN Sustainable Development Goals separate marine and terrestrial food production sectors and ecosystems. To sustainably meet increasing global demands for fish, the interlinkages among goals within and across fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture sectors must be recognized and addressed along with their changing nature. Here, we assess and highlight development challenges for fisheries-dependent countries based on analyses of interactions and trade-offs between goals focusing on food, biodiversity and climate change. We demonstrate that some countries are likely to face double jeopardies in both fisheries and agriculture sectors under climate change. The strategies to mitigate these risks will be context-dependent, and will need to directly address the trade-offs among Sustainable Development Goals, such as halting biodiversity loss and reducing poverty. Countries with low adaptive capacity but increasing demand for food require greater support and capacity building to transition towards reconciling trade-offs. Necessary actions are context-dependent and include effective governance, improved management and conservation, maximizing societal and environmental benefits from trade, increased equitability of distribution and innovation in food production, including continued development of low input and low impact aquaculture.

6 pages, 5 figures, supporting information https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900194116.-- All data reported in this paper are archived and publicly available at http://dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de/pik/showshort.php?id=escidoc:2956913., While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends, Financial support was provided by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research through ISI-MIP (Grant01LS1201A1), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program (Grant 678193), and the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G). We acknowledge additional financial support as follows: to H.K.L., W.W.L.C., and B.W. from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada; to D.P.T. from the Kanne Rasmussen Foundation Denmark; to A.B.-B. from the NSERC Transatlantic Ocean Science and Technology Program; to W.W.L.C. and T.D.E. from the Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program; to E.D.G., M.C. and J. Steenbeek from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Re-search and Innovation Program (Grants 682602 and 689518); to E.A.F., J.L.B., andT.R. from Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization and the Australian Research Council; to N.B., L.B., and O.M. from the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche and Pôle de Calcul et de Données pour la Mer; and to S.J. from the UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

The ocean provides humans with a wide range of ecosystem services such as food provision, carbon sequestration, coastal protection, and biodiversity. The capacity of the ocean to provide ecosystem services is impacted by humans through climate change and fisheries. Understanding the extent of human impacts on ocean capacity and ecosystem services and how they will change under different carbon emission and exploitation scenarios is necessary to inform evidence-based policies and decision making. Scientists have developed models of marine ecosystem and fisheries to make future ocean projections. Models are simplifications and abstractions of the real world, and model approaches vary greatly in the processes that they represent, the assumptions that they make, and the data that they are informed by. As a result of this heterogeneity, different models often give different projections of future ocean capacity. In order to address this variability in projections, systematic approaches to compare models referred to as model intercomparison projects (MIPs), have been developed for many socio-ecological systems. The fisheries and marine ecosystem MIP (FishMIP) was formed to develop a standardized method to perform future climate change and fisheries projections for regional and global scale models. This chapter describes key insights from the FishMIP experience to build confidence in projections of future ocean capacity.

Climate change is shifting the abundance and distribution of marine species with consequences for ecosystem functioning, seafood supply, management and conservation. Several approaches for future projection exist but these have never been compared systematically to assess their variability. We conducted standardized ensemble projections including 6 global fisheries and marine ecosystem models, forced with 2 Earth-system models and 4 emission scenarios in a fished and unfished ocean, to derive average trends and associated uncertainties. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4%) under low and 17% (±11%) under high emissions by 2100, primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production. These climate-change effects were slightly weaker for larger animals and in a fished ocean. Considerable regional variation ranged from strong biomass increases in high latitudes to strong decreases in mid-low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to differences among ecosystem or Earth-system models were similar, suggesting equal need for model improvement. Our ensemble projections provide the most comprehensive outlook on potential climate-driven ecological changes in the ocean to date. Realized future trends will largely depend on how fisheries and management adapt to these changes in a changing climate.

In New Zealand and Nova Scotia, lobster (Jasus edwardsii and Homarus americanus, respectively) is the most valuable export fishery. Although stock assessments and indicators assist in evaluating lobster fisheries, ecosystem effects are largely unknown, hindering ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM). We employed ecosystem models for the Cook Strait, New Zealand and western Scotian Shelf, Nova Scotia, Canada, to evaluate trade-offs between catches and ecosystem impacts in lobster fisheries from single- and multi-species perspectives. We ran simulations to independently determine exploitation rates that produced maximum sustainable yield (MSY) for lobster, and for all fished groups. We then ran simulations using these MSY exploitation rates simultaneously, and simulations to maximize multi-species MSY (MMSY). Our results indicate that current lobster exploitation rates in both regions are greater than those producing MSY, and have significant ecosystem impacts. Simulating multi-species fisheries, in both systems the sum of single-species MSY for all fished groups was less than the sum of catches where exploitation rates were run simultaneously. Runs maximizing MMSY across the entire ecosystem increased exploitation rates on many fished groups, and produced even greater total catch—yet with much greater ecological costs—and in Nova Scotia, collapses of sharks, large predators, and lobster themselves. As fisheries management moves towards multi-species and ecosystem-based approaches, we suggest that MMSY targets should be treated similarly to MSY—not as a target, but a limit. Even then, careful evaluation is required before implementation to ensure that there are no undesirable economic or ecological consequences.

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.

Model intercomparison studies in the climate and earth sciences communities have been crucial to build credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment, and consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size) and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem, and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than is any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) CMIP5 outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP6 in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between, and uncertainties within, models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems, and improve our capacity to define and convey strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

Conference and workshops Ecopath 30 years – Modelling ecosystem dynamics: beyond boundaries with EwE, 4-14 November 2014, Barcelona, Spain.-- 2 pages, 1 figure, Invertebrate catches are increasing globally following the depletion and collapses of many finfish stocks (Anderson et al. 2011a; Anderson et al. 2011b), however stock assessments and management plans for invertebrates are rare. Recent fisheries research has aimed to understand fisheries impacts at the ecosystem scale, rather than traditional single-species approaches. We have employed an ecosystem modeling approach to explore the tradeoffs between invertebrate fisheries catches and their impacts on the associated reef ecosystem for an area on the south coast of Wellington, New Zealand. Fisheries for lobster (Jasus edwardsii), abalone (Haliotis australis and Haliotis iris), and urchin (Evechinus chloroticus) exist in this region, as well as traditional finfish fisheries

Understanding ecosystem responses to global and local anthropogenic impacts is paramount to predicting future ecosystem states. We used an ecosystem modeling approach to investigate the independent and cumulative effects of fishing, marine protection, and ocean acidification on a coastal ecosystem. To quantify the effects of ocean acidification at the ecosystem level, we used information from the peer-reviewed literature on the effects of ocean acidification. Using an Ecopath with Ecosim ecosystem model for the Wellington south coast, including the Taputeranga Marine Reserve (MR), New Zealand, we predicted ecosystem responses under 4 scenarios: ocean acidification + fishing; ocean acidification + MR (no fishing); no ocean acidification + fishing; no ocean acidification + MR for the year 2050. Fishing had a larger effect on trophic group biomasses and trophic structure than ocean acidification, whereas the effects of ocean acidification were only large in the absence of fishing. Mortality by fishing had large, negative effects on trophic group biomasses. These effects were similar regardless of the presence of ocean acidification. Ocean acidification was predicted to indirectly benefit certain species in the MR scenario. This was because lobster (Jasus edwardsii) only recovered to 58% of the MR biomass in the ocean acidification + MR scenario, a situation that benefited the trophic groups lobsters prey on. Most trophic groups responded antagonistically to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and marine protection (46%; reduced response); however, many groups responded synergistically (33%; amplified response). Conservation and fisheries management strategies need to account for the reduced recovery potential of some exploited species under ocean acidification, nonadditive interactions of multiple factors, and indirect responses of species to ocean acidification caused by declines in calcareous predators.

Eddy, T.D. ... et al.-- 14 pages, 6 figures, supporting Information, Since the 1950s, invertebrate fisheries catches have rapidly expanded globally to more than 10 million tonnes annually, with twice as many target species, and are now significant contributors to global seafood provision, export, trade and local livelihoods. Invertebrates play important and diverse functional roles in marine ecosystems, yet the ecosystem effects of their exploitation are poorly understood. Using 12 ecosystem models distributed worldwide, we analysed the trade-offs of various invertebrate fisheries and their ecosystem effects as well as ecological indicators. Although less recognized for their contributions to marine food webs, our results show that the magnitude of trophic impacts of invertebrates on other species of commercial and conservation interest is comparable with those of forage fish. Generally, cephalopods showed the strongest ecosystem effects and were characterized by a strong top-down predatory role. Lobster, and to a lesser extent, crabs, shrimp and prawns, also showed strong ecosystem effects, but at lower trophic levels. Benthic invertebrates, including epifauna and infauna, also showed considerable ecosystem effects, but with strong bottom-up characteristics. In contrast, urchins, bivalves, and gastropods showed generally lower ecosystem effects in our simulations. Invertebrates also strongly contributed to benthic–pelagic coupling, with exploitation of benthic invertebrates impacting pelagic fishes and vice versa. Finally, on average, invertebrates produced maximum sustainable yield at lower levels of depletion (~45%) than forage fish (~65%), highlighting the need for management targets that avoid negative consequences for target species and marine ecosystems as a whole, Key financial support for this project was provided by the Lenfest Ocean Program with a grant to HKL. MC was partially funded by the European Commission through the Marie Curie Career Integration Grant Fellowships – PCIG10-GA-2011-303534 – to the BIOWEB project and by the Spanish National Program Ramon y Cajal. VC acknowledges support from NSERC, Canada. SM gratefully acknowledges the support provided by Defra project M1228 ‘Fizzyfish’

Anthropogenic threats to the global marine environment are increasing, and the Convention of Biological Diversity has set a target of 10% global ocean protection by 2020. Social factors are an important component of coastal marine protected area and no-take marine reserve creation. In order to understand social factors influencing marine reserve creation in New Zealand, public surveys were conducted in 2005 and 2011 about marine protection and threats to the marine environment (Territorial Sea and Exclusive Economic Zone). These results are compared to an experts' opinion survey of threats to the New Zealand marine environment, and actual marine protection levels. Generally, the New Zealand public identified similar New Zealand originated threats to the marine environment as those identified by experts, in contrast to expert identified global threats originating from climate change, which were minimally identified by the public. Experts identified that shallow, coastal waters were under greater threat than deep water habitats. On average, the New Zealand public thought that ~30% of New Zealand’s marine environment was protected by no-take marine reserves, and that 36% should be protected, while in fact only 0.3% is protected by no-take marine reserves. There is considerable potential for publicly driven marine protection initiatives in New Zealand with sufficient awareness, education, and outreach programs to better inform New Zealanders about actual marine protection levels. The results of this study are globally important, as similar knowledge gaps about marine environmental issues have been identified in the United States and the United Kingdom.

No-take marine reserves (MRs) are a useful tool to study the ecosystem effects of fishing as many MRs have allowed ecosystems to recover to pre-fished states. Established in 2008, the Taputeranga MR, located on the south coast of Wellington, New Zealand, provides full no-take protection to the nearshore marine environment. Commercial, recreational, and customary fisheries are important in this region and commercial catch records for the last 70 years indicate that exploitation has greatly reduced the biomass of some species. We employed an ecosystem modelling approach to analyse the food web linkages on this coast immediately prior to MR establishment (the pre-MR state) for comparison to reconstructed historical and predicted future ecosystem states. Our results suggest that the organisation and function of the pre-MR ecosystem have changed since the 1940s, notably in terms of the role played by lobster ( Jasus edwardsii ). Historically, lobster were at least four times more abundant, and played a keystone role by directly negatively impacting the abundance of prey species, and indirectly positively influencing the abundance of the prey of their prey. While the fishery for lobster that operates today is well managed and sustainable from a single-species perspective, our results indicate that the fishery has reduced lobster biomass sufficiently to have significant impacts on the organisation and function of the nearshore temperate reef ecosystem along Wellingtons's south coast. Our results predict that over the next 40 years, the Taputeranga MR is capable of restoring the protected ecosystem to a state more similar to that observed in the past, prior to large-scale commercial exploitation. This finding has implications for the management of fisheries in other areas, as we have demonstrated the inability of the single species fisheries model to manage the ecosystem effects of fishing.

Ascophyllum nodosum (rockweed) is a dominant, habitat-forming seaweed on intertidal rocky shores in the North Atlantic and commercially harvested in Canada, Maine and Europe. Rockweed plant structure varies regionally, and several morphotypes have been identified in Atlantic Canada alone. Yet the regionality of canopy structure, associated species communities and the link between the two have not been well understood. Using large-scale field surveys and multivariate statistical approaches, we report distinct canopy structures between sites in southwest Nova Scotia and southwest New Brunswick, the two major rockweed harvesting areas in Atlantic Canada, as well as distinct associated community composition. We then demonstrate significant links between canopy and community structure. Importantly, plant and canopy structure, including length, circumference and density, were much better predictors of associated community structure than rockweed biomass, which is often used for single-species monitoring. Adding region or site as predictors further improved model fits. Therefore, measuring plant or canopy structure would strongly improve insight regarding ecosystem changes. Moreover, incorporating information about regional differences in canopy structure and the dependence of associated communities on those canopies is critical for spatially refined, ecosystem-based management of the rockweed harvest.

Recent EU policies known as Plan S require researchers funded with EU grants to publish in open-access journals to make articles more publicly accessible (“European funders seek to end reign of paywalled journals,” M. Enserink, In Depth, 7 September 2018, p. [957][1]). Critics of these policies claim that they will cause a gradual shift toward publishing in open-access journals and will deepen the divide between authors who have the capacity to pay open-access publishing fees and those who do not ([ 1 ][2]). However, the distinction between the open-access and paywall model is not the only axis that needs to be considered. An important dividing criterion that predicts journals' behavior toward promoting accessibility is whether they have a for-profit or nonprofit business model. For-profit publishers make a lot of money; the big three–Elsevier ([ 2 ][3]), Springer Nature ([ 3 ][4]), and Wiley ([ 4 ][5])—made US$3.2, US$1.9, and US$1.7 billion in revenue in 2017, respectively, with Elsevier banking 37% of revenue as profit ([ 2 ][3]). This profit motivation justifies charging excess fees, which hinder accessibility. For example, in response to the high publication fees and other open-access policies at the Elsevier-published Journal of Informetrics , the entire editorial board resigned and went on to establish the open-access journal Quantitative Science Studies. Published by the nonprofit MIT Press, Quantitative Science Studies charges article processing fees that are less than half of those charged by Elsevier ([ 5 ][6]). Most scientists would agree that they want their research to become more publicly accessible, but the fact of the matter is that it costs money to publish an article and host it online for both for-profit and nonprofit publishers. Yet, unlike for-profit publishers, nonprofit publishers such as AAAS (the publisher of Science ), the Public Library of Science (PLoS), and the Royal Society reinvest their profits into programs that benefit the community. Although these organizations need enough revenue to remain sustainable, they may be more flexible about adjusting their model for the sake of accessibility. Important questions to consider beyond open access vs. paywall remain: Should the products and services that scientists provide to journals for free—manuscripts, peer review, editorial oversight—be used for profit? Do for-profit publishers' interests align with those of the scientific community to make science more accessible for both researchers and readers? Initiatives such as Plan S might also consider whether publicly funded research published by for-profit publishers aligns with a mandate to make access to science more open overall. 1. [↵][7]1. M. Burgman et al ., Conserv. Biol. 33, 5 (2018). [OpenUrl][8] 2. [↵][9]“2017 RELX Group annual report” (RELX Group, 2018), p. 17; [www.relx.com/~/media/Files/R/RELX-Group/documents/reports/annual-reports/relx2017-annual-report.pdf][10]. 3. [↵][11]“Springer Nature GmbH, Berlin, consolidated financial statements as at 31 December 2017” (Springer Nature, 2018); [www.equitystory.com/Download/Companies/springernature/Annual%20Reports/2017\_FinancialReportandAuditorOpinion\_En.pdf][12]. 4. [↵][13]“Wiley Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2017 earnings report” (Wiley, 2017); . 5. [↵][14]1. D. S. Chawla , Nature 10.1038/d41586-019-00135-8 (2019). [1]: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/361/6406/957 [2]: #ref-1 [3]: #ref-2 [4]: #ref-3 [5]: #ref-4 [6]: #ref-5 [7]: #xref-ref-1-1 "View reference 1 in text" [8]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DConserv.%2BBiol.%26rft.volume%253D33%26rft.spage%253D5%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [9]: #xref-ref-2-1 "View reference 2 in text" [10]: http://www.relx.com/~/media/Files/R/RELX-Group/documents/reports/annual-reports/relx2017-annual-report.pdf [11]: #xref-ref-3-1 "View reference 3 in text" [12]: http://www.equitystory.com/Download/Companies/springernature/Annual%20Reports/2017_FinancialReportandAuditorOpinion_En.pdf [13]: #xref-ref-4-1 "View reference 4 in text" [14]: #xref-ref-5-1 "View reference 5 in text"

The trophic structure of organisms is an important aspect of the ecosystem as it describes how energy is transferred between different trophic levels. Here, we studied the diet and foraging ecology of 144 individuals belonging to five abundant fish species of subtidal habitats at Isla Robinson Crusoe. Sampling was conducted during the austral spring and summer of 2007 and 2008, respectively. The shallow subtidal habitat is mainly characterized by the abundance of two types of habitat: foliose algae and encrusting invertebrates. Diet and trophic characteristic of fishes were obtained by volumetric contribution and frequency of occurrence of each prey item. Of the five species studied, one is herbivorous (juvenile Scorpis chilensis), four are omnivores (Nemadactylus gayi, Malapterus reticulatus, Pseudocaranx chilensis and Scorpis chilensis adult), and one carnivore (Hypoplectrodes semicinctum). The dietary diversity index was relatively low compared to other temperate reef systems, which could indicate a low availability of prey items for coastal fishes. The morphological parameters indicated that cranial structures and pairs of pectoral fins influence the foraging behaviour. Differences in fin aspect ratio among species provided insight about fish depth distribution and feeding behaviour. These results suggest important adaptive changes in the depth gradient of fishes in the subtidal environments of this island. According to our records, this is the first attempt to characterize the trophic ecology of the subtidal fish assemblages at Juan Fernandez Archipelago, revealing the need for testing hypotheses related to selective traits that may enhance species coexistence in oceanic islands.

Coastal ecosystems are among the most productive yet increasingly threatened marine ecosystems worldwide. Particularly vegetated habitats, such as eelgrass (Zostera marina) beds, play important roles in providing key spawning, nursery and foraging habitats for a wide range of fauna. To properly assess changes in coastal ecosystems and manage these critical habitats, it is essential to develop sound monitoring programs for foundation species and associated assemblages. Several survey methods exist, thus understanding how different methods perform is important for survey selection. We compared two common methods for surveying macrofaunal assemblages: beach seine netting and underwater visual census (UVC). We also tested whether assemblages in shallow nearshore habitats commonly sampled by beach seines are similar to those of nearby eelgrass beds often sampled by UVC. Among five estuaries along the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, our results suggest that the two survey methods yield comparable results for species richness, diversity and evenness, yet beach seines yield significantly higher abundance and different species composition. However, sampling nearshore assemblages does not represent those in eelgrass beds despite considerable overlap and close proximity. These results have important implications for how and where macrofaunal assemblages are monitored in coastal ecosystems. Ideally, multiple survey methods and locations should be combined to complement each other in assessing the entire assemblage and full range of changes in coastal ecosystems, thereby better informing coastal zone management.

The regionally endemic Galapagos Grouper, locally known as bacalao, is one of the most highly prized finfish species within the Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR). Concerns of overfishing, coupled with a lack of fishing regulations aimed at this species raises concerns about the current population health. We assessed changes in population health over a 30-year period using three simple indicators: (1) percentage of fish below reproductive size (Lm); (2) percentage of fish within the optimum length interval (Lopt); and (3) percentage of mega-spawners in the catch. Over the assessed period, none of the indicators reached values associated with healthy populations, with all indicators declining over time. Furthermore, the most recent landings data show that the vast majority of the bacalao caught (95.7%,) were below Lm, the number of fish within the Lopt interval was extremely low (4.7%), and there were virtually no mega-spawners (0.2%). Bacalao fully recruit to the fishery 15 cm below the size at which 50% of the population matures. The Spawning Potential Ratio is currently 5% of potential unfished fecundity, strongly suggesting severe overfishing. Our results suggest the need for bacalao-specific management regulations that should include minimum (65 cm TL) and maximum (78 cm TL) landing sizes, slot limits (64–78 cm TL), as well as a closed season during spawning from October to January. It is recognized that these regulations are harsh and will certainly have negative impacts on the livelihoods of fishers in the short term, however, continued inaction will likely result in a collapse of this economically and culturally valuable species. Alternative sources of income should be developed in parallel with the establishment of fishing regulations to limit the socio-economic disruption to the fishing community during the transition to a more sustainable management regime.