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Since the latter half of the twentieth century, China’s conduct in territorial disputes within the nine-dash line (9DL) has received international criticism. After the landmark arbitral ruling in 2016 denounced China’s historical claims to maritime rights within the 9DL and ruled China’s actions in Philippine waters as unlawful, it became evidently clear to the international community that China had been overstepping the bounds of the United Nations Conventions on the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS). Prior incidents with Japan and Vietnam had already portrayed China as provocative. If left unchecked, continued Chinese provocation in the South China Sea could threaten countries’ sovereign maritime rights in the region. This possibility poses an important question: Why have countries in Southeast Asia not more publicly and prominently cooperated with one another and the United States to balance against China’s claims in the South China Sea? This thesis argues that claimant countries have not taken a collaborative approach to challenging China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea due to three factors: heightened tensions in the South China Sea as a result of the U.S.-China rivalry, China’s economic influence on claimant countries’ decision-making, and the presence of a collective action dilemma among ASEAN to challenge China., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The increasing strategic cooperation between China and Russia has grown into a major threat to the current global order and U.S. interests in Europe and Asia, particularly in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the declaration of a “no-limits” partnership between these two revisionist powers. This thesis assesses the potential scope and limitations of the Sino-Russian strategic alignment from a historical perspective and through the lenses of the relevant theories of international relations dealing with alliances and interstate competition. It also examines the key policy options available to the United States and its allies to limit Chinese and Russian attempts to undermine the Liberal International Order (LIO), and to displace the U.S. in Europe and Asia. The thesis finds that the option of driving a “wedge” between Russia and China through détente with Russia is not feasible if President Putin remains in power; similarly, opportunities for selective cooperation with a resurgent China remain limited. Because Russian and Chinese strategic cooperation and aggressive behavior are primarily driven by the internal threat to their authoritarian systems posed by the LIO, the most appropriate response is to contain these regimes with a U.S.-led global coalition of democracies.

With its advanced missiles, sensor systems, and modernized navy, China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy threatens U.S. conventional military platforms’ survivability and freedom of maneuver, reducing U.S. credibility and power projection capabilities throughout the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, China’s Belt and Road Initiative strengthens its diplomatic and economic relationships with regional countries, threatening the U.S.-established rules-based regional order. As a result, the United States Marine Corps introduced Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO) as both a warfighting concept to combat China’s A2/AD capabilities and as a form of deterrence. However, its success depends on U.S. access and freedom of maneuver to sovereign nations’ territory. Consequently, the efficacy of EABO is inextricably linked to security cooperation, as it is the Department of Defense’s primary means to gain access to foreign territory. This thesis begins by examining the threats to U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific, EABO and its requirements, security cooperation, and how to best tailor it to support the execution of EABO. It then evaluates the varying degrees of security cooperation activities the U.S. engages in with Japan and Indonesia and the impact those activities may have on the feasibility of conducting EABO from their territory. The findings suggest that security cooperation activities have enhanced the feasibility of conducting EABO from Japan but not Indonesia.

With the return of great power and strategic competition, a renewed analysis of U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific is required. Competition with the Soviet Union during the Cold War elicited the formation of NATO, a multilateral collective defense institution. This thesis aims to answer why, despite a rapidly militarizing China, there remains no such institution in Asia. To that end, it examines the Chinese threat relative to that posed by the Soviet Union, then examines U.S. relations with its major partners in the region—India, Japan, South Korean, and Australia—to understand the forces that are inhibiting multilateralism. This thesis finds that the current geopolitical environment in the Indo-Pacific does not yet warrant a change to the hitherto successful hub-and-spokes system. China’s increased assertiveness in the region does not present an existential threat to the United States and its allies, and China’s economic appeal and regional clout disincentivize states from provoking it. However, parsimonious structural theories inadequately explain the lack of a multilateral institution in Asia. Domestic politics, norms, identity, and legal constructs also influence states’ desires and/or abilities to participate in such an institution. Nevertheless, a substantial Chinese transgression that severely upsets the status quo could drive states to form a multilateral collective defense institution in the region, as the appetite for defense-related multilateralism is increasing., Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The purpose of this research project is to examine the relationship between the United States and China from 2001 to 2017 to identify key drivers behind the shift from cooperation to more competition. This project utilized primary source documents such as memoirs, approved policies, and key speeches in the Bush and Obama administrations, as well as secondary sources such as journal articles and policy research reports. This thesis finds that the U.S. and China through both administrations were able to cooperate in areas of converging interests but struggled to cooperate in areas where interests diverged. Additionally, China’s economic growth, military growth, and military modernization coupled with its more assertive posture in the South China Sea led the United States to increase its attention towards East and Southeast Asia. America’s increased focus in Asia drove more competition between the United States and China, a trend that continued beyond the Obama administration and still poses a challenge to the U.S.-China relationship today., Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Chinese nuclear modernization has continued since China became a nuclear weapons state in 1964. As China’s nuclear arsenal and nuclear-related infrastructure progressed, Chinese declaratory strategies of active defense and no-first-use (NFU) have remained resolute. This thesis examines how Chinese strategies may or may not be driving China’s nuclear modernization from the years 2000 through 2020. In order to determine the extent to which strategy has influenced China’s nuclear modernization, this thesis explores Chinese nuclear capabilities, training and exercises, and declaratory policy. Additionally, this thesis also addresses the prospect of Chinese nuclear escalation based on related theoretical approaches. After taking into account each factor considered for China’s nuclear modernization, this thesis concludes that China’s nuclear modernization is not solely driven by its existing strategies of NFU or active defense. Though China remains consistent in advertising its espoused strategies, its nuclear modernization raises some concerns regarding its continued adherence to NFU. Additionally, Chinese ambiguity of strategy and more forward-leaning modernization suggests that active defense incorporates both deterrence and, now, the potential use of nuclear weapons to achieve coercive outcomes. Due to China’s robust nuclear modernization that has resulted in additional warfighting options, this thesis finds that escalation across the nuclear threshold is more likely., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

NPS NRP Technical Report, This research will examine the implications of the rise of two near-peer, nuclear-armed adversaries for the United States, with an emphasis on the Russian role as a pivotal player in this rising configuration. The focus on Russia will account for the fact that while China's rise makes it potentially the most significant long-term threat, the current scale of Russia's arsenal and its strategic posture make it the most immediate existential threat to the United States and its allies, as well as a key potential spoiler in the U.S. strategic pivot to the Indo-Pacific. The research will proceed along three parallel tracks. The first track will analyze how the different motivations and capabilities of Russia and China to challenge the United States structures their incentives for strategic cooperation, and will review the key debates among Russian elites on these topics. The second part will analyze Russian elite perceptions of the opportunities and limits of cooperation with China in boosting each other's strategic capabilities and their employment strategies. The third track of the research will examine the role of arms control and confidence-building measures in the emerging trilateral context, with the United States facing two near-peer adversaries. This research will be conducted through a combined team effort of subject-matter experts on Russian, U.S., NATO, and Chinese strategic doctrines, capabilities, and behavior. The researchers will perform a rigorous analysis of the debates in the Russian literature, complementing and contextualizing this information through discussions with subject matter experts in Washington, USSTRATCOM, NATO Headquarters, SHAPE Headquarters, and in key European allies. The final report will provide a combined analytical assessment on the topic, and discuss the implications for the USN, DoD, and U.S. national security more broadly., N3/N5 - Plans & Strategy, This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrp, Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This research will assess how strategic and non-strategic deterrence capabilities, to include nuclear weapons (both adversary and U.S. capabilities), would influence Taiwan Contingency operations. A publishable paper authored by Chris Twomey and an NPS student team designed wargame from the Wargaming Applications course will be utilized to inform and underpin this program of research.

Increasing economic power has driven China’s global rise, providing China with immense influence and capabilities. China has used this power in pursuit of its strategic objectives especially in the Indo-Pacific. How has Chinese economic statecraft and coercion impacted South Korea’s and Australia’s security relations with the United States? This thesis conducts comparative case studies of South Korea and Australia and their economic relations with China and security relations with the United States. This research made use of multiple databases to examine 20 years’ worth of records detailing bilateral relations and trade for instances of Chinese economic coercion to identify the core cases, and makes shorter assessments of other key cases. This thesis finds that China primarily uses informal economic coercive methods for a range of issues including territorial maritime disputes, human rights, and security interests. The tactics have become more active and sophisticated over time in being able to precisely and flexibly target industries. However, China’s use of economic coercion has so far achieved mixed results as there seem to be no long-term concrete changes to the U.S. alliances and, in some cases, evidence that it has backfired. This thesis recommends that the United States increase its cooperation and establish new institutions with its allies, other countries and the private sector to limit and counter the effectiveness of Chinese economic coercive tactics., Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

This thesis examines the political and security implications of China's economic expansion into the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) region. It employs a comparative case study method to assess the PRC's relations with three Arab states: Saudi Arabia, which is a major source of China's petroleum imports; Egypt, which is a significant destination for Chinese infrastructure development resources and a participant in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); and Jordan, which has relatively weak economic ties with the PRC. This research broadly encompasses the period between 1993, the year of China's emergence in the MENA region as a net energy importer, and the present. Ultimately, this thesis finds that China's increasing levels of regional economic engagement are linked with political responses from certain Arab governments. China's economic activities have not induced a shift in partner states' voting behavior as it specifically relates to human rights in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). It has, however, influenced the Saudi Arabian and Egyptian governments to respond domestically and internationally to China's Uyghur situation in ways that align with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) interests. It is also correlated with the weakening of the political and security partnership between Egypt and the United States. As such, this analysis suggests that China's regional economic engagement may be having effects on the broader international order., http://archive.org/details/oasesofinfluence1094567151, Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Over the past decade, Southeast Asian countries have struggled to devise effective responses to China’s efforts to assert its claims in the South China Sea. This thesis aims to explain why some of those responses have been more successful than others. Using five case studies from 2012–2020, this thesis examines how the following four factors account for the success or failure of Vietnamese and Malaysian responses: increased external balancing with the U.S., increased internal balancing, increased coercive diplomacy, and stronger diplomatic support from the international community. The thesis finds that successful responses rely on a combination of internal balancing with coercive diplomacy and international support. It finds only weak evidence that countries in Southeast Asia engage in external balancing in response to China’s actions in the region. These conclusions suggest that the United States should increase its diplomatic and military cooperation with Southeast Asian partners in ways that enhance their capacity to deploy maritime forces and generate international support in response to Chinese assertiveness. Future research should examine whether increased military cooperation with middle powers such as India and Australia may contribute to more successful outcomes., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Relations between the United States and North Korea reached a pivotal point in 2018 when a noticeable détente occurred while the United States pursued a foreign policy of denuclearization toward North Korea. The policy was predicated on the complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization of the North Korean nuclear weapons program. This thesis asks whether the current United States policy toward North Korea, which places continued emphasis on the only acceptable condition for denuclearization be that it is complete, verifiable, and irreversible, is the best strategy, or if there are alternatives to this policy that the United States could feasibly pursue? This thesis answers the research question by examining and analyzing nuclear proliferation drivers and inhibitors and conducting a comparative study in which some cases maintain a nuclear weapons program and others have chosen to abandon such efforts. The study of proliferation drivers and inhibitors concluded that North Korea is unlikely to accept the conditions of complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization. However, the United States can likely achieve tangible and genuine results toward denuclearization by changing its perspective on North Korean nuclear weapons and adopting a policy that embraces North Korea’s unique reasons for nuclear proliferation., Major, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited