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The study evaluates the impact of risk on enterprises of male, female and young farmers operating in the formal and informal smallholder dairy value chains in Tanzania. It also examines the effect of uncertainty on the decision to invest in milk production in the two value chains. Results indicate that youths in the informal dairy value chain face the greatest level of risk followed by men in the formal value chain, and then men in the informal value chain. Women in both value chains and youths in the formal value chain face relatively low risk. Overall, milk production in the informal value chain is found to be substantially riskier than production in the formal chain. Optimal investment triggers are found to be much larger than the conventional triggers and are sensitive to volatility of returns. The results’ managerial and policy implications for inclusive dairy industry development in Tanzania are highlighted.

The study evaluates the impact of risk on enterprises of smallholder male, female and young milk producers in Tanzania’s formal and informal dairy value chains. It also examines the effect of uncertainty on the decision to invest in milk production in both value chains. Results indicate that youths in the informal value chain face the greatest level of risk followed by men in the formal value chain, and then men in the informal value chain. Women in both value chains and youths in the formal value chain face relatively low risk. Overall, milk production in the informal chain is found to be substantially riskier than production in the formal chain. Optimal investment triggers are found to be much larger than the conventional triggers and are sensitive to volatility of returns. The results’ policy and practical implications for inclusive dairy industry development in Tanzania are highlighted.

The study investigates the role of technology adoption and collective action in the demand for credit among dairy farmers in rural Tanzania. Using survey data from four districts in Tanga and Morogoro regions, the incidence of credit is found to be seven percent. Logit and tobit models based on a conceptual framework that assumes endogenously determined interest rates and nonseparability of production and consumption credit, are applied to the data. Interest rates are found to be exogenous and statistically insignificant in the demand for credit. The logit model shows collective action to positively influence the decision to borrow, but technology adoption is insignificant. From the tobit model, both collective action and technology adoption positively influence the amount of funds borrowed. We use these results to examine the observed failure of rural savings and credit cooperative societies to lend to smallholder dairy farmers and livestock keepers in general in Tanzania.

The study uses a partial equilibrium model to determine the benefits that would accrue to smallholder dairy producers and consumers from improved efficiency of Tanzania’s informal dairy value chain. Two sources of technical efficiency are analyzed, namely, cost efficiency and scale efficiency. Using aggregate time series data to simulate the model, the study finds that improvement in scale efficiency offers relatively large benefits to both producers and consumers. However, benefits from improvement in cost efficiency are relatively small and disproportionate. It is concluded that improving technical efficiency in general would lead to significant benefits for producers and consumers.

The study uses the flexible accelerator model to examine determinants of the level and growth of investment in machinery and equipment for a sample of tea-processing firms in Uganda. Using a dynamic panel data model, we find that, in the long run, the level of investment in machinery and equipment is positively influenced by the accelerator, firm-level liquidity, and a favourable investment climate in the country. Depreciation of the exchange rate negatively affects investment. We conclude that firm-level strategies that increase output and profitability, and a favourable investment policy climate, are imperative to the growth of the tea industry

The paper examines the impact of four exogenous shocks – exchange rate appreciation, feed price escalation, mandatory country of origin labeling, and economic recession – on the Canadian and U.S. beef cattle industries using a multi-market partial equilibrium model. Impacts on the U.S. industry are found to be relatively small compared to those on the Canadian industry. Country of origin labeling, and feed price escalation account for the largest decline in the welfare of Canadian cattle producers.

The transition out of extreme poverty and hunger in agrarian economies requires an understanding of how new agricultural technologies are adopted by poor farmers. In Uganda, improved germplasm from the cassava breeding program has generated new varieties that are increasingly being grown by farmers. Although considerable success has been achieved in adoption of these varieties in general, there is increasing pressure on breeding and technology dissemination programs to improve the targeting of their efforts. This paper identifies the specific cassava varieties adopted thus far and their desirable and undesirable attributes. In addition, it determines the adoption rates of these varieties and the factors that have influenced the speed of adoption of the most adopted variety. Results show that NASE 1, NASE 2, NASE 3, NASE 4, NASE 10 and NASE 12 are the varieties adopted so far. Farmers consider, inter alia, disease resistance, maturity period, taste and dry matter content in their decision to adopt new cassava varieties. From the Negative Binomial model, speed of adoption of NASE 3 was positively influenced by age of household head, household size and access to extension services. However, it was negatively influenced by number of hoes owned by a household. We conclude that there is need to continue breeding for adaptability to biotic stresses while improving on attributes that influence palatability and nutritive value of the crop. Strengthening the link between farmers and agricultural extension agents/service providers and improving the targeting of extension services will enhance the adoption of new cassava varieties.

During the 2004 food crisis in Niger, the weakness of the main production system, millet, to produce enough food to sustain short term crises, has been revealed. Questions arise how the Nigerian smallholder systems can be assisted by research and development policies to intensify production and improve food security. The paper assesses technical options according to their economic sustainability. A sequence of models is applied: On plot level, production functions of inter cropping systems were estimated to determine yields and their variability of the major crops. These data were fed in a nonlinear program to test the inn ovations, first at stable prices, then at declining prices that were obtained from an interregional trade model. The latter was shocked by the excess obtained from the innovations' surpluses. Results show that due to risk aversion and price volatility of output markets, farmers adopt intensive innovations less than expected. Instead, they switch to low-input techniques. Recommendations derived from the study are that research has to develop low-risk technologies to intensify Nigerian millet systems, and that domestic market policies have to stabilize prices in order to reduce market risks and set incentives for intensification. Price stabilization has to be done in a market-conform way, through buying and selling of millet, but not through price fixing or subsidizing.