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This paper describes the use of the idea of natural time to propose a new method for characterizing the seismic risk to the world's major cities at risk of earthquakes. Rather than focus on forecasting, which is the computation of probabilities of future events, we define the term seismic nowcasting, which is the computation of the current state of seismic hazard in a defined geographic region., Comment: 9 Figures, 4 Tables

Seismic imaging of the mantle has revealed large and small scale heterogeneities in the lower mantle; specifically structures known as large low shear velocity provinces (LLSVP) below Africa and the South Pacific. Most interpretations propose that the heterogeneities are compositional in nature, differing in composition from the overlying mantle, an interpretation that would be consistent with chemical geodynamic models. Numerical modeling of persistent compositional interfaces presents challenges, even to state-of-the-art numerical methodology. For example, some numerical algorithms for advecting the compositional interface cannot maintain a sharp compositional boundary as the fluid migrates and distorts with time dependent fingering due to the numerical diffusion that has been added in order to maintain the upper and lower bounds on the composition variable and the stability of the advection method. In this work we present two new algorithms for maintaining a sharper computational boundary than the advection methods that are currently openly available to the computational mantle convection community; namely, a Discontinuous Galerkin method with a Bound Preserving limiter and a Volume-of-Fluid interface tracking algorithm. We compare these two new methods with two approaches commonly used for modeling the advection of two distinct, thermally driven, compositional fields in mantle convection problems; namely, an approach based on a high-order accurate finite element method advection algorithm that employs an artificial viscosity technique to maintain the upper and lower bounds on the composition variable as well as the stability of the advection algorithm and the advection of particles that carry a scalar quantity representing the location of each compositional field. All four of these algorithms are implemented in the open source FEM code ASPECT.

Injections of large volumes of water into tight shale reservoirs allows the extraction of oil and gas not previously accessible. This large volume "super" fracking induces damage that allows the oil and/or gas to flow to an extraction well. The purpose of this paper is to provide a model for understanding super fracking. We assume that water is injected from a small spherical cavity into a homogeneous elastic medium. The high pressure of the injected water generates hoop stresses that reactivate natural fractures in the tight shales. These fractures migrate outward as water is added creating a spherical shell of damaged rock. The porosity associated with these fractures is equal to the water volume injected. We obtain an analytic expression for this volume. We apply our model to a typical tight shale reservoir and show that the predicted water volumes are in good agreement with the volumes used in super fracking., Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures in International Journal of Damage Mechanics

Hydraulic fracturing (fracking) using high pressures and a low viscosity fluid allow the extraction of large quantiles of oil and gas from very low permeability shale formations. The initial production of oil and gas at depth leads to high pressures and an extensive distribution of natural fractures which reduce the pressures. With time these fractures heal, sealing the remaining oil and gas in place. High volume fracking opens the healed fractures allowing the oil and gas to flow the horizontal productions wells. We model the injection process using invasion percolation. We utilize a 2D square lattice of bonds to model the sealed natural fractures. The bonds are assigned random strengths and the fluid, injected at a point, opens the weakest bond adjacent to the growing cluster of opened bonds. Our model exhibits burst dynamics in which the clusters extends rapidly into regions with weak bonds. We associate these bursts with the microseismic activity generated by fracking injections. A principal object of this paper is to study the role of anisotropic stress distributions. Bonds in the $y$-direction are assigned higher random strengths than bonds in the $x$-direction. We illustrate the spatial distribution of clusters and the spatial distribution of bursts (small earthquakes) for several degrees of anisotropy. The results are compared with observed distributions of microseismicity in a fracking injection. Both our bursts and the observed microseismicity satisfy Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics., Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures

Recent developments in hydraulic fracturing (fracking) have enabled the recovery of large quantities of natural gas and oil from old, low permeability shales. These developments include a change from low-volume, high-viscosity fluid injection to high-volume, low-viscosity injection. The injected fluid introduces distributed damage that provides fracture permeability for the extraction of the gas and oil. In order to model this process, we utilize a loopless non-trapping invasion percolation previously introduced to model optimal polymers in a strongly disordered medium, and for determining minimum energy spanning trees on a lattice. We performed numerical simulations on a 2D square lattice and find significant differences from other percolation models. Additionally, we find that the growing fracture network satisfies both Horton-Strahler and Tokunaga network statistics. As with other invasion percolation models, our model displays burst dynamics, in which the cluster extends rapidly into a connected region. We introduce an alternative definition of bursts to be a consecutive series of opened bonds whose strengths are all below a specified value. Using this definition of bursts, we find good agreement with a power-law frequency-area distribution. These results are generally consistent with the observed distribution of microseismicity observed during a high-volume frack., Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, http://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.89.022119

We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of statistical and fault-system models have been discussed for use in computing forecast probabilities. Our paper takes a new approach. The idea is based on the observation that GR statistics characterize seismicity for all space and time. Small magnitude event counts (quake counts) are used as markers for the approach of large events. More specifically, if the GR b-value = 1, then for every 1000 M>3 earthquakes, one expects 1 M>6 earthquake. So if ~1000 M>3 events have occurred in a spatial region since the last M>6 earthquake, another M>6 earthquake should be expected soon. In physics, event count models have been called natural time models, since counts of small events represent a physical or natural time scale characterizing the system dynamics. In a previous paper, we used conditional Weibull statistics to convert event counts into a temporal probability for a given fixed region. In the present paper, we dispense with a fixed region, and develop a method to compute these Natural Time Weibull (NTW) forecasts on a global scale, using an internally consistent method, in regions of arbitrary shape and size. Among the results we find that the Japan region is at serious risk for a major (M>8) earthquake over the next year or two, a result that also follows from considering completeness of the Gutenberg-Richter relation., Comment: 26 pages, 0 figures; To be submitted to Geophysical Journal International

A variety of studies have modeled the physics of material deformation and damage as examples of generalized phase transitions, involving either critical phenomena or spinodal nucleation. Here we study a model for frictional sliding with long range interactions and recurrent damage that is parameterized by a process of damage and partial healing during sliding. We introduce a failure threshold weakening parameter into the cellular-automaton slider-block model which allows blocks to fail at a reduced failure threshold for all subsequent failures during an event. We show that a critical point is reached beyond which the probability of a system-wide event scales with this weakening parameter. We provide a mapping to the percolation transition, and show that the values of the scaling exponents approach the values for mean-field percolation (spinodal nucleation) as lattice size $L$ is increased for fixed $R$. We also examine the effect of the weakening parameter on the frequency-magnitude scaling relationship and the ergodic behavior of the model.

Earthquake occurrence in nature is thought to result from correlated elastic stresses, leading to clustering in space and time. We show that occurrence of major earthquakes in California correlates with time intervals when fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering., Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to PRL

We present a RELM forecast of future earthquakes in California that is primarily based on the pattern informatics (PI) method. This method identifies regions that have systematic fluctuations in seismicity, and it has been demonstrated to be successful. A PI forecast map originally published on 19 February 2002 for southern California successfully forecast the locations of sixteen of eighteen M>5 earthquakes during the past three years. The method has also been successfully applied to Japan and on a worldwide basis. An alternative approach to earthquake forecasting is the relative intensity (RI) method. The RI forecast map is based on recent levels of seismic activity of small earthquakes. Recent advances in the PI method show considerable improvement, particularly when compared with the RI method using relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagrams for binary forecasts. The RELM application requires a probability for each location for a number of magnitude bins over a five year period. We have therefore constructed a hybrid forecast in which we combine the PI method with the RI method to compute a map of probabilities for events occurring at any location, rather than just the most probable locations. These probabilities are further converted, using Gutenberg-Richter scaling laws, to anticipated rates of future earthquakes that can be evaluated using the RELM test., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures (color), 1 table

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting. This approach is based on a pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output is a map of areas in a seismogenic region (``hotspots'') where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. These forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI) forecast based on the hypothesis that future earthquakes will occur where earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances., Comment: 10(+1) pages, 5 figures, 2 tables. Submitted to Nonlinearl Processes in Geophysics on 5 August 2005

In this work the distribution of inter-occurrence times between earthquakes in aftershock sequences is analyzed and a model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) process is proposed to quantify the observed scaling. In this model the generalized Omori's law for the decay of aftershocks is used as a time-dependent rate in the NHP process. The analytically derived distribution of inter-occurrence times is applied to several major aftershock sequences in California to confirm the validity of the proposed hypothesis., Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures

We derive an analytical expression of the inter-arrival time distribution for a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). This expression is exact and is applicable to any time interval, finite or infinite. As an illustration, we present simulation results for three different intensity functions., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures

A review paper considering space-time variability of climate, sedimentation, and geomagnetism., Comment: latex file, 64 pages, 56 figures