Search

This Deliverable Report describes the work carried out in Task 5.4 (“Development of Decision Support System (DSS) for post-event rapid response also accounting for aftershocks”) within TURNkey WP5. The purpose of this task is to integrate the stakeholder performance metrics from Task 5.1 and the predictive models from Task 5.2 (performance of infrastructure systems) with the procedures for Rapid Earthquake Loss Prediction (RELP) (Task 4.5). The updated loss estimates that are output from WP4 constitute the initial state of the affected area (i.e., situational awareness), from which adequate actions may be taken during the crisis period. Accounting for various uncertainties (i.e., the known state of the systems and the variability in the effects of given decisions), the evaluation of various potential actions in a RRE context results in the design of a Decision Support System (DSS) that has the effect of orienting emergency responders towards the most efficient actions, thus reducing the time to emerge from the crisis phase. To this end, this task revolved around two specific focus areas, which are detailed in this report:  Design of a DSS for the post-earthquake accessibility of a road network (Section 3): following the general WP5 methodology, the DSS aims at identifying the best routes to navigate a degraded road network (accounting for uncertainty in the actual state of the road components) depending on the type of user (e.g., emergency responders, healthcare crew, general public, etc.).  Assessment of structural damage that occurs to infrastructure components under mainshock and future aftershock events (Sections 4 and 5): a Bayesian network-based probabilistic framework is developed for updating the risk of damage to bridges during aftershocks, allowing the integration of various types of information to reduce uncertainty in the calculations.