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Abstract Data on the SARS-CoV-2 infection among primary health care workers (PHCWs) are scarce but essential to reflect on policy regarding prevention and control measures. We assessed the prevalence of PHCWs who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 in comparison with modeling from the general population in metropolitan France, and associated factors. A cross-sectional study was conducted among general practitioners (GPs), pediatricians, dental and pharmacy workers in primary care between May and August 2021. Participants volunteered to provide a dried-blood spot for SARS-CoV-2 antibody assessment and completed a questionnaire. The primary outcome was defined as the detection of infection-induced antibodies (anti-nucleocapsid IgG, and for non-vaccinees: anti-Spike IgG and neutralizing antibodies) or previous self-reported infection (positive RT-qPCR or antigenic test, or positive ELISA test before vaccination). Estimates were adjusted using weights for representativeness and compared with prediction from the general population. Poisson regressions were used to quantify associated factors. The analysis included 1612 PHCWs. Weighted prevalences were: 31.7% (95% CI 27.5–36.0) for GPs, 28.7% (95% CI 24.4–33.0) for pediatricians, 25.2% (95% CI 20.6–31.0) for dentists, and 25.5% (95% CI 18.2–34.0) for pharmacists. Estimates were compatible with model predictions for the general population. PHCWs more likely to be infected were: GPs compared to pharmacist assistants (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 2.26; CI 95% 1.01–5.07), those living in Île-de-France (aPR = 1.53; CI 95% 1.14–2.05), South-East (aPR = 1.57; CI 95% 1.19–2.08), North-East (aPR = 1.81; CI 95% 1.38–2.37), and those having an unprotected contact with a COVID-19 case within the household (aPR = 1.48; CI 95% 1.22–1.80). Occupational factors were not associated with infection. In conclusion, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure for PHCWs was more likely to have occurred in the community rather than at their workplace.

Abstract Alien species can be damaging to native biodiversity, human well‐being and the economy. Identifying the complete range of impacts they cause, and the ways that these impacts are connected, may inform the prioritisation of management actions to mitigate impacts. Using datasets on the biodiversity impacts and monetary costs (damage and management costs) of alien birds, we aimed to establish whether species with the most severe biodiversity impacts also had the highest costs; whether types of biodiversity impact were associated with high costs; and whether specific factors associated with alien species are linked to both damaging biodiversity impacts and high costs. We identified a positive relationship between a specific type of biodiversity impact (predation) and costs, possibly because predation by alien birds can be severely damaging to native species and therefore attracts management actions. However, predation impacts are likely to occur more frequently and to be easier to identify than some other impact mechanisms such as hybridisation and transmission of diseases, and they are therefore likely to be more frequently managed and hence to have costs. We identified a specific species characteristic (generalism) to be associated with severe biodiversity impacts and high costs, probably because generalist species have greater opportunity to cause impacts, whether they be on biodiversity or the economy, or both. We also found widely distributed alien birds to be associated with high costs, probably because these species also have greater opportunity to cause impacts. Management interventions that prevent the introduction of both predatory and generalist alien bird species, or that reduce their geographic distribution at early stages of invasions, may have significant biodiversity and economic benefits. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Bed bug infestations have been increasing worldwide since the 2000s. Their consequences for health range from skin reactions to major psychological distress. However, epidemiological data is still lacking. This study estimated the incidence of general practice consultations related to bed bugs in France and evaluated factors associated with repercussions on everyday life. We conducted a prospective observational study from March 2019 to April 2020 among 217 GPs in France. Annual and monthly GP consultations related to bed bugs were estimated from the reported cases. Descriptive analyses were performed, and factors associated with repercussions on everyday life were assessed using a logistic regression model. The annual incidence rate of GP consultations related to bed bugs was estimated at 109 per 100,000 inhabitants [95%CI: 92-126]. Bed bug-related consultations occurred in all regions, peaking in the summer. Moderate-to-severe repercussions on everyday life were reported by 39% of the patients. The associated factors with this level of repercussions were: having seen bed bugs (OR = 4.02 [95%CI: 1.6-10.73]), having lesions from scratching (OR = 5.25 [1.65-19.92]), having lesions on the head and the neck (OR = 3.97 [1.52-10.95]) and reporting psychological distress (OR = 6.79 [2.47-20.42]). This study provides new knowledge on GP consultations related to bed bugs in France. These data will help tailor public health programs to the population's needs, including information and training for primary healthcare professionals.

Abstract Background Biological invasions threaten the functioning of ecosystems, biodiversity, and human well-being by degrading ecosystem services and eliciting massive economic costs. The European Union has historically been a hub for cultural development and global trade, and thus, has extensive opportunities for the introduction and spread of alien species. While reported costs of biological invasions to some member states have been recently assessed, ongoing knowledge gaps in taxonomic and spatio-temporal data suggest that these costs were considerably underestimated. Results We used the latest available cost data in InvaCost (v4.1)—the most comprehensive database on the costs of biological invasions—to assess the magnitude of this underestimation within the European Union via projections of current and future invasion costs. We used macroeconomic scaling and temporal modelling approaches to project available cost information over gaps in taxa, space, and time, thereby producing a more complete estimate for the European Union economy. We identified that only 259 out of 13,331 (~ 1%) known invasive alien species have reported costs in the European Union. Using a conservative subset of highly reliable, observed, country-level cost entries from 49 species (totalling US$4.7 billion; 2017 value), combined with the establishment data of alien species within European Union member states, we projected unreported cost data for all member states. Conclusions Our corrected estimate of observed costs was potentially 501% higher (US$28.0 billion) than currently recorded. Using future projections of current estimates, we also identified a substantial increase in costs and costly species (US$148.2 billion) by 2040. We urge that cost reporting be improved to clarify the economic impacts of greatest concern, concomitant with coordinated international action to prevent and mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species in the European Union and globally.

Natural hazards — such as storms, floods, and wildfires — can be disastrous phenomena and so can biological invasions, for which impacts are often irrevocable and insidious. Yet, biological invasion awareness remains low compared to natural hazards, and investments to manage invasions remain vastly underfunded and delayed. Here, we quantified biological invasion costs relative to natural hazards, to raise awareness and political leverage. Analysing biological invasions and natural hazards damage cost data over 1980–2019, economic losses from biological invasions were of similar magnitude to natural hazards (e.g., $1,208.0 bn against $1,913.6 bn for storms and $1,139.4 bn for earthquakes). Alarmingly, invasion costs increased faster than natural hazards over time. Similar biological invasions impact magnitudes to natural hazards and faster cost growth rates urge commensurate recognition, coordination and action towards invasions in policies.

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Abstract Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, French health authorities have encouraged barrier measures and implemented three lockdowns to slow SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We aimed to examine the impact of these measures on the epidemiology of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in France, from November 2019 to August 2021. We describe trends in AGE indicators from syndromic surveillance and a sentinel surveillance network. Additionally, we describe reported AGE illness data from a community based cohort, and frequencies of adherence to COVID-19 barrier measures from repeated quantitative surveys. From week 7 in 2020, all AGE indicators reached the lowest levels observed since the last decade. During the first lockdown, the median incidence rate reported by the sentinel network was 32 per 100,000 inhabitants, 1.9 times lower than the minimum registered during the 2010–2019 period. Low activity persisted until April 2021. Reported illness from the community cohort mirrored these trends. Adherence to COVID-19 barrier measures was highest during the first lockdown, coinciding with the steep decrease in AGE incidence. Among children under 5 years, AGE incidence increased after the third lockdown in June and July 2021, but remained lower than previous winter-season peaks. Our study indicates that a reduction in adherence to COVID-19 barrier measures, and the end of the lockdowns, coincided with an increase in AGE incidence, particularly among young children. We therefore strongly recommend maintaining adherence to barrier measures in order to in order to limit the transmission of AGE related pathogens.

Abstract Biological invasions by amphibian and reptile species (i.e. herpetofauna) are numerous and widespread, having caused severe impacts on ecosystems, the economy and human health. However, there remains no synthesised assessment of the economic costs of these invasions. Therefore, using the most comprehensive database on the economic costs of invasive alien species worldwide (InvaCost), we analyse the costs caused by invasive alien herpetofauna according to taxonomic, geographic, sectoral and temporal dimensions, as well as the types of these costs. The cost of invasive herpetofauna totaled at 17.0 billion US$ between 1986 and 2020, divided split into 6.3 billion US$ for amphibians, 10.4 billion US$ for reptiles and 334 million US$ for mixed classes. However, these costs were associated predominantly with only two species (brown tree snake Boiga irregularis and American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus), with 10.3 and 6.0 billion US$ in costs, respectively. Costs for the remaining 19 reported species were relatively minor ( 99%), while for reptiles, impacts were reported mostly through damages to mixed sectors (65%). Geographically, Oceania and Pacific Islands recorded 63% of total costs, followed by Europe (35%) and North America (2%). Cost reports have generally increased over time but peaked between 2011 and 2015 for amphibians and 2006 to 2010 for reptiles. A greater effort in studying the costs of invasive herpetofauna is necessary for a more complete understanding of invasion impacts of these species. We emphasise the need for greater control and prevention policies concerning the spread of current and future invasive herpetofauna.

Abstract Background Sentinel networks composed of general practitioners (GPs) represent a powerful tool for epidemiologic surveillance and ad-hoc studies. Globalization necesitates greater international cooperation among sentinel networks. The aim of this study was to inventory GP sentinel networks involved in epidemiological surveillance on a global scale. Methods GP sentinel surveillance networks were inventoried globally between July 2016 and December 2019. Each identified network was required to fill out an electronic descriptive survey for inclusion. Results A total of 148 networks were identified as potential surveillance networks in general practice and were contacted. Among them, 48 were included in the study. Geographically, 33 networks (68.8%) were located in Europe and 38 (79.2%) had national coverage. The number of GPs registered in these networks represented between 0.1 and 100% of the total number of GPs in the network’s country or region, with a median of 2.5%. All networks were involved in continuous epidemiologic surveillance and 47 (97.9%) monitored influenza-like illness. Data collection methods were paper-based forms (n = 26, 55.3%), electronic forms on a dedicated website (n = 18, 38.3%), electronic forms on a dedicated software program (n = 14, 29.8%), and direct extraction from electronic medical records (n = 14, 29.8%). Along with this study, a website has been created to share all data collected. Conclusions This study represents the first global geographic mapping of GP sentinel surveillance networks. By sharing this information, collaboration between networks will be easier, which can strengthen the quality of international epidemiologic surveillance. In the face of crises like that of COVID-19, this is more imperative than ever before.

The adverse impacts of alien birds are widespread and diverse, and associated with costs due to the damage caused and actions required to manage them. We synthesised global cost data to identify variation across regions, types of impact, and alien bird species. Costs amount to US$3.6 billion, but this is likely a vast underestimate. Costs are low compared to other taxonomic groups assessed using the same methods; despite underreporting, alien birds are likely to be less damaging and easier to manage than many other alien taxa. Research to understand why this is the case could inform measures to reduce costs associated with biological invasions. Costs are biassed towards high-income regions and damaging environmental impacts, particularly on islands. Most costs on islands result from actions to protect biodiversity and tend to be low and one-off (temporary). Most costs at mainland locations result from damage by a few, widespread species. Some of these costs are high and ongoing (permanent). Actions to restrict alien bird invasions at mainland locations might prevent high, ongoing costs. Reports increased sharply after 2010, but many are for local actions to manage expanding alien bird populations. However, the successful eradication of these increasingly widespread species will require a coordinated, international response.

Although the high costs of invasion are frequently cited and are a key motivation for environmental management and policy, synthesised data on invasion costs are scarce. Here, we quantify and examine the monetary costs of biological invasions in the United Kingdom (UK) using a global synthesis of reported invasion costs. Invasive alien species have cost the UK economy between US$6.9 billion and $17.6 billion (£5.4 – £13.7 billion) in reported losses and expenses since 1976. Most costs were reported for the entire UK or Great Britain (97%); country-scale cost reporting for the UK's four constituent countries was scarce. Reports of animal invasions were the costliest ($4.7 billion), then plant ($1.3 billion) and fungal ($206.7 million) invasions. Reported damage costs (i.e. excluding management costs) were higher in terrestrial ($4.8 billion) than aquatic or semi-aquatic environments ($29.8 million), and primarily impacted agriculture ($4.2 billion). Invaders with earlier introduction years accrued significantly higher total invasion costs. Invasion costs have been increasing rapidly since 1976, and have cost the UK economy $157.1 million (£122.1 million) per annum, on average. Published information on specific economic costs included only 42 of 520 invaders reported in the UK and was generally available only for the most intensively studied taxa, with just four species contributing 90% of species-specific costs. Given that many of the invasive species lacking cost data are actively managed and have well-recognised impacts, this suggests that cost information is incomplete and that totals presented here are vast underestimates owing to knowledge gaps. Financial expenditure on managing invasions is a fraction (37%) of the costs incurred through damage from invaders; greater investments in UK invasive species research and management are, therefore, urgently required.

Biological invasions continue to threaten the stability of ecosystems and societies that are dependent on their services. Whilst the ecological impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) have been widely reported in recent decades, there remains a paucity of information concerning their economic impacts. Europe has strong trade and transport links with the rest of the world, facilitating hundreds of IAS incursions, and largely centralised decision-making frameworks. The present study is the first comprehensive and detailed effort that quantifies the costs of IAS collectively across European countries and examines temporal trends in these data. In addition, the distributions of costs across countries, socioeconomic sectors and taxonomic groups are examined, as are socio-economic correlates of management and damage costs. Total costs of IAS in Europe summed to US$140.20 billion (or €116.61 billion) between 1960 and 2020, with the majority (60%) being damage-related and impacting multiple sectors. Costs were also geographically widespread but dominated by impacts in large western and central European countries, i.e. the UK, Spain, France, and Germany. Human population size, land area, GDP, and tourism were significant predictors of invasion costs, with management costs additionally predicted by numbers of introduced species, research effort and trade. Temporally, invasion costs have increased exponentially through time, with up to US$23.58 billion (€19.64 billion) in 2013, and US$139.56 billion (€116.24 billion) in impacts extrapolated in 2020. Importantly, although these costs are substantial, there remain knowledge gaps on several geographic and taxonomic scales, indicating that these costs are severely underestimated. We, thus, urge increased and improved cost reporting for economic impacts of IAS and coordinated international action to prevent further spread and mitigate impacts of IAS populations.

Biological invasions can dramatically impact natural ecosystems and human societies. However, although knowledge of the economic impacts of biological invasions provides crucial insights for efficient management and policy, reliable syntheses are still lacking. This is particularly true for low income countries where economic resources are insufficient to control the effects of invasions. In this study, we relied on the recently developed "InvaCost" database – the most comprehensive repository on the monetised impacts of invasive alien species worldwide – to produce the first synthesis of economic costs of biological invasions on the African continent. We found that the reported costs of invasions ranged between US$ 18.2 billion and US$ 78.9 billion between 1970 and 2020. This represents a massive, yet highly underestimated economic burden for African countries. More alarmingly, these costs are exponentially increasing over time, without any signs of abatement in the near future. The reported costs were mostly driven by damage caused by invaders rather than expenses incurred for management. This trend was highly skewed towards a few regions (i.e. Southern and Eastern Africa) and activity sectors (i.e. agriculture) and incurred by a small number of invasive taxa (i.e. mainly three insect pests: Chilo partellus, Tuta absoluta, Spodoptera frugiperda). We also highlight crucial, large gaps in current knowledge on the economic costs of invasions that still need to be bridged with more widespread research effort and management actions across the continent. Finally, our study provides support for developing and implementing preventive measures as well as integrated post-invasion management actions at both national and regional levels. Considering the complex societal and economic realities in African countries, the currently neglected problem of biological invasions should become a priority for sustainable development.

Articles about doing a PhD tend to focus on the difficulties faced by research students. Here we argue that the scientific community should also highlight the positive elements of the PhD experience.

Bed bug infestations have been increasing worldwide since the 2000s. Their consequences for health range from skin reactions to major psychological distress. However, epidemiological data is still lacking. This study estimated the incidence of general practice consultations related to bed bugs in France and evaluated factors associated with repercussions on everyday life. We conducted a prospective observational study from March 2019 to April 2020 among 217 GPs in France. Annual and monthly GP consultations related to bed bugs were estimated from the reported cases. Descriptive analyses were performed, and factors associated with repercussions on everyday life were assessed using a logistic regression model. The annual incidence rate of GP consultations related to bed bugs was estimated at 109 per 100,000 inhabitants [95%CI: 92–126]. Bed bug-related consultations occurred in all regions, peaking in the summer. Moderate-to-severe repercussions on everyday life were reported by 39% of the patients. The associated factors with this level of repercussions were: having seen bed bugs (OR = 4.02 [95%CI: 1.6–10.73]), having lesions from scratching (OR = 5.25 [1.65–19.92]), having lesions on the head and the neck (OR = 3.97 [1.52–10.95]) and reporting psychological distress (OR = 6.79 [2.47–20.42]). This study provides new knowledge on GP consultations related to bed bugs in France. These data will help tailor public health programs to the population's needs, including information and training for primary healthcare professionals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Although it is rarely fatal in developed countries, acute gastroenteritis (AGE) still induces significant morbidity and economic costs. The objective of this study was to identify factors associated with AGE in winter in the general population. Methods A prospective study was performed during winter seasons from 2014 to 2015 to 2016–2017. Participants filled an inclusion survey and reported weekly data on acute symptoms. Factors associated with having at least one AGE episode per winter season were analyzed using the generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach. Results They were 13,974 participants included in the study over the three seasons. On average, 8.1% of participants declared at least one AGE episode during a winter season. People over 60 declared fewer AGE episodes (adjusted OR (aOR) = 0.76, 95% CI [0.64; 0.89]) compared to individuals between 15 and 60 years old, as well as children between 10 and 15 (aOR = 0.60 [0.37; 0.98]). Overweight (aOR = 1.25 [1.07; 1.45]) and obese (aOR = 1.47 [1.19; 1.81]) individuals, those having frequent cold (aOR = 1.63 [1.37; 1.94]) and those with at least one chronic condition (aOR = 1.35 [1.16; 1.58]) had more AGE episodes. Living alone was associated with a higher AGE episode rate (aOR = 1.31 [1.09; 1.59]), as well as having pets at home (aOR = 1.23 [1.08; 1.41]). Conclusions Having a better knowledge of AGE determinants will be useful to adapt public health prevention messages.

The statistics of concentration data, measured during unknown atmospheric dispersion events, are not fully understood although they are required in modeling, assessment, uncertainty analysis, and information fusion. The concentrations measured over a field of monitoring network is regarded as a vector which contains both magnitude and direction. Traditional statistics (mean, standard deviations, etc.) based on magnitude of concentration data summarize data properties but are limited in characterizing variations in data and their modeling quality. Comparatively, directions are efficient in providing valuable information to address these issues. Here we propose a statistical framework which transforms concentration measurements into directions projected on a hypersphere and analyzes their orientation and distribution. The directional data measured in identical conditions are expected to be rotationally symmetric around its principal axis and follow Watson distribution. The clustering parameter of Watson distribution measures tightness of directional data and, thus, can measure indirectly variations in observed data. It is shown that the clustering parameter is able to summarize an overall variation in data and modeling quality of data in a dispersion trial. The study analyzes real data taken from continuous release experiments, called “Fusion Field Trials,” conducted at Dugway Proving Ground, Utah, United States.

Abstract Background Influenza generates a significant societal impact on morbidity, mortality, and associated costs. The study objective was to identify factors associated with influenza-like-illness (ILI) episodes during seasonal influenza epidemics among the general population. Methods A prospective study was conducted with the GrippeNet.fr crowdsourced cohort between 2012/13 and 2017/18. After having completed a yearly profile survey detailing socio-demographic, lifestyle and health characteristics, participants reported weekly data on symptoms. Factors associated with at least one ILI episode per influenza epidemic, using the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control case definition, were analyzed through a conditional logistic regression model. Results From 2012/13 to 2017/18, 6992 individuals participated at least once, and 61% of them were women (n = 4258). From 11% (n = 469/4140 in 2013/14) to 29% (n = 866/2943 in 2012/13) of individuals experienced at least one ILI during an influenza epidemic. Factors associated with higher risk for ILI were: gender female (OR = 1.29, 95%CI [1.20; 1.40]), young age (

In France, social distancing measures have been adopted to contain the spread of COVID-19, culminating in national Lockdowns. The use of hand washing, hydro-alcoholic rubs and mask-wearing also increased over time. As these measures are likely to impact the transmission of many communicable diseases, we studied the changes in common infectious diseases incidence in France during the first year of COVID-19 circulation. We examined the weekly incidence of acute gastroenteritis, chickenpox, acute respiratory infections and bronchiolitis reported in general practitioner networks since January 2016. We obtained search engine query volume for French terms related to these diseases and sales data for relevant drugs over the same period. A periodic regression model was fit to disease incidence, drug sales and search query volume before the COVID-19 period and extrapolated afterwards. We compared the expected values with observations made in 2020. During the first lockdown period, incidence dropped by 67% for gastroenteritis, by 79% for bronchiolitis, by 49% for acute respiratory infection and 90% for chickenpox compared to the past years. Reductions with respect to the expected incidence reflected the strength of implemented measures. Incidence in children was impacted the most. Reduction in primary care consultations dropped during a short period at the beginning of the first lockdown period but remained more than 95% of the expected value afterwards. In primary care, the large decrease in reported gastroenteritis, chickenpox or bronchiolitis observed during the period where many barrier measures were implemented imply that the circulation of common viruses was reduced and informs on the overall effect of these measures.

We aimed to investigate the immunoglobulin G response and neutralizing activity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) among primary health care workers (PHCW) in France and assess the association between the neutralizing activity and several factors, including the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination scheme. A cross-sectional survey was conducted between 10 May 2021 and 31 August 2021. Participants underwent capillary blood sampling and completed a questionnaire. Sera were tested for the presence of antibodies against the nucleocapsid (N) protein and the S-1 portion of the spike (S) protein and neutralizing antibodies. In total, 1612 PHCW were included. The overall seroprevalences were: 23.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 21.6–25.7%) for antibodies against the N protein, 94.7% (93.6–95.7%) for antibodies against the S protein, and 81.3% (79.4–83.2%) for neutralizing antibodies. Multivariate regression analyses showed that detection of neutralizing antibodies was significantly more likely in PHCW with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection than in those with no such history among the unvaccinated (odds ratio (OR) 16.57, 95% CI 5.96–59.36) and those vaccinated with one vaccine dose (OR 41.66, 95% CI 16.05–120.78). Among PHCW vaccinated with two vaccine doses, the detection of neutralizing antibodies was not significantly associated with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR 1.31, 95% CI 0.86–2.07), but was more likely in those that received their second vaccine dose within the three months before study entry than in those vaccinated more than three months earlier (OR 5.28, 95% CI 3.51–8.23). This study highlights that previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and the time since vaccination should be considered when planning booster doses and the design of COVID-19 vaccine strategies.

Biological invasions are a major threat to global biodiversity with particularly strong implications for island biodiversity. Much research has been dedicated towards understanding historic and current changes in alien species distribution and impacts on islands and potential changes under future climate change. However, projections of how alien species richness and impacts on islands might develop in the future are still lacking. In the absence of reliable projections, expert-based assessments are a valuable tool to investigate the importance of different drivers and pathways and the distributions of potential impacts of future biological invasions. These insights can guide subsequent quantification efforts and inform invasive species management and policy. In this study, we performed a survey among 126 experts in invasion science ranging from scientists to managers and decision makers with a focus on island systems until the mid-21st century. The survey revealed that out of 15 drivers, six were considered important by almost all respondents (>90%). Of these, trade and transport was identified as most important at the introduction stage (99.2%) and land use/cover change as most important at the establishment (96.8%) and spread (95.2%) stage. Additionally, the experts considered that alien species were more likely to be introduced (93.7%) and spread (78.6%) as stowaways than through any other pathway. In general, respondents agreed that the impacts of alien species will increase on all types of islands, particularly on oceanic islands, followed by atolls and continental islands. Within islands, terrestrial ecosystems were assumed to be impacted more severely than marine ecosystems. Finally, the survey hints toward the potential for effective communication, scientific research and increased pro-active management of alien species on islands to reduce their future consequences. Given the major threat represented by invasive alien species on islands, these results provide crucial insights relevant for global and regional conservation efforts.