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Sub-Saharan Africa’s health challenges are numerous and wide-ranging. Most sub-Saharan African countries face a double burden of traditional, persisting health challenges, such as infectious diseases, malnutrition, and child and maternal mortality, and emerging challenges from an increasing prevalence of chronic conditions, mental health disorders, injuries, and health problems related to climate change and environmental degradation. Although there has been real progress on many health indicators, life expectancy and most population health indicators remain behind most low-income and middle-income countries in other parts of the world. Our Commission was prompted by sub-Saharan Africa’s potential to improve health on its own terms, and largely with its own resources. The spirit of this Commission is one of evidence-based optimism, with caution. We recognise that major health inequities exist and that health outcomes are worst in fragile countries, rural areas, urban slums, and conflict zones, and among the poor, disabled, and marginalised. Moreover, sub- Saharan Africa is facing the challenges and opportunities of the largest cohort of young people in history, with the youth population aged under 25 years predicted to almost double from 230 million to 450 million by 2050. The future of health in Africa is bright, but only if no one is left behind.

Summary Background Little information is available about the effect of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in low-income countries. We measured the effect of these vaccines on invasive pneumococcal disease in The Gambia where the 7-valent vaccine (PCV7) was introduced in August, 2009, followed by the 13-valent vaccine (PCV13) in May, 2011. Methods We conducted population-based surveillance for invasive pneumococcal disease in individuals aged 2 months and older who were residents of the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System (BHDSS) in the Upper River Region, The Gambia, using standardised criteria to identify and investigate patients. Surveillance was done between May, 2008, and December, 2014. We compared the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease between baseline (May 12, 2008–May 11, 2010) and after the introduction of PCV13 (Jan 1, 2013–Dec 31, 2014), adjusting for changes in case ascertainment over time. Findings We investigated 14 650 patients, in whom we identified 320 cases of invasive pneumococcal disease. Compared with baseline, after the introduction of the PCV programme, the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease decreased by 55% (95% CI 30–71) in the 2–23 months age group, from 253 to 113 per 100 000 population. This decrease was due to an 82% (95% CI 64–91) reduction in serotypes covered by the PCV13 vaccine. In the 2–4 years age group, the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease decreased by 56% (95% CI 25–75), from 113 to 49 cases per 100 000, with a 68% (95% CI 39–83) reduction in PCV13 serotypes. The incidence of non-PCV13 serotypes in children aged 2–59 months increased by 47% (−21 to 275) from 28 to 41 per 100 000, with a broad range of serotypes. The incidence of non-pneumococcal bacteraemia varied little over time. Interpretation The Gambian PCV programme reduced the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease in children aged 2–59 months by around 55%. Further surveillance is needed to ascertain the maximum effect of the vaccine in the 2–4 years and older age groups, and to monitor serotype replacement. Low-income and middle-income countries that introduce PCV13 can expect substantial reductions in invasive pneumococcal disease. Funding GAVI's Pneumococcal vaccines Accelerated Development and Introduction Plan (PneumoADIP), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the UK Medical Research Council.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of zinc as an adjunct therapy for severe pneumonia is not established. We assessed the benefit of adjunct zinc therapy for severe pneumonia in children and determined whether the study children were zinc deficient. METHODS: This was a randomized, parallel group, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial with an allocation ratio of 1:1 conducted in children with severe pneumonia to evaluate the efficacy of daily zinc as an adjunct treatment in preventing 'treatment failure' (presence of any sign of severe pneumonia) on day-5 and day-10 and in reducing the time to resolution of signs of severe pneumonia. Six hundred and four children 2-59 months of age presenting with severe pneumonia at six urban and rural health care facilities in The Gambia were individually randomised to receive placebo (n = 301) or zinc (n = 303) for seven days. To determine if the study children were zinc deficient, supplementation was continued in a randomly selected subgroup of 121 children from each arm for six months post-enrolment, and height-gain, nutritional status, plasma zinc concentrations, and immune competence were compared. RESULTS: Percentage of treatment failure were similar in placebo and zinc arms both on day 5 (14.0% vs 14.1%) and day 10 (5.2% vs 5.9%). The time to recovery from lower chest wall indrawing and sternal retraction was longer in the placebo compared to zinc arm (24.4 vs 23.0 hours; P = 0.011 and 18.7 vs 11.0 hours; P = 0.006 respectively). The time to resolution for all respiratory symptoms of severity was not significantly different between placebo and zinc arms (42.3 vs 30.9 hours respectively; P = 0.242). In the six months follow-up sub-group, there was no significant difference in height gain, height-for-age and weight-for-height Z-scores, mid upper arm circumference, plasma zinc concentrations, and anergy at six months post-enrolment. CONCLUSIONS: In this population, zinc given as an adjunct treatment for severe pneumonia showed no benefit in treatment failure rates, or clinically important benefit in time to recovery from respiratory symptoms and showed marginal benefit in rapidity of resolution of some signs of severity. This finding does not support routine use of zinc as an adjunct treatment in severe pneumonia in generally zinc replete children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN33548493.

The Farafenni Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Farafenni HDSS) is located 170 km from the coast in a rural area of The Gambia north of the River Gambia. It was set up in 1981 by the UK Medical Research Council Laboratories to generate demographic and health information required for the evaluation of a village-based primary health care programme in 40 villages. Regular updates of demographic events and residency status have subsequently been conducted every 4 months. The surveillance area was extended in 2002 to include Farafenni Town and surrounding villages to support randomized controlled trials. With over three decades of prospective surveillance and through specific scientific investigations the platform (population approximately 50000) has generated data on: morbidity and mortality due to malaria in children and during pregnancy; non-communicable disease among adults; reproductive health; and levels and trends in childhood and maternal mortality. Other information routinely collected includes causes of death through verbal autopsy and household socioeconomic indicators. The current portfolio of the platform includes tracking Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) attainments in rural Gambia and cause-of-death determination. (c) The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Recently, increasing attention has been given to behavioural and relational aspects of the people who both define and shape health systems, placing them at the core. A growing refrain includes the assertion that important decisions determining health system performance, including agenda setting, policy formulation and policy implementation, are made by people. Within this actor-oriented approach, good leadership has been identified as a key contributing factor in health systems strengthening. However, leadership remains ill-defined and under-researched, especially in resource-limited settings, and understanding the links between leadership and health outcomes remains a challenge. We explore the concept and practice of healthcare leadership at sub-national level in a low-income country setting, using a people-centric research methodology. In June and July 2013, 15 in-depth interviews were conducted with key informants in formal healthcare leadership roles across urban, peri-urban and rural settings of The Gambia, West Africa. Participants included the entire spectrum of Regional Health Team (RHT) Directors and Chief Executive Officers of all government hospitals, as well as one clinical officer-in-charge in a secondary-level major health centre. We found reference to several important aspects of, and approaches to, leadership, including (i) setting a clear vision; (ii) engendering shared leadership; and (iii) paying attention to human relations in management. Participants described attending to constituencies in government, international development agencies and civil society, as well as to the populations they serve. By illuminating the multi-polar networks within which these leaders are embedded, and through which they operate, we provide insight into the complex ‘organizational ecology’ of the Gambian health system. There is a need to further research and develop healthcare leadership across all levels, within various political, socio-economic and cultural contexts, in order to better work with a range of health actors and to engage them in identifying and acting upon opportunities for health systems strengthening.

Rationale: Contacts of patients with tuberculosis (TB) constitute an important target population for preventive measures because they are at high risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and progression to disease. Objectives: We investigated bio-signatures with predictive ability for incident TB. Methods: In a case-control study nested within the Grand Challenges 6-74 longitudinal HIV-negative African cohort of exposed household contacts, we employed RNA sequencing, PCR, and the pair ratio algorithm in a training/test set approach. Overall, 79 progressors who developed TB between 3 and 24 months after diagnosis of index case and 328 matched nonprogressors who remained healthy during 24 months of follow-up were investigated. Measurements and Main Results: A four-transcript signature derived from samples in a South African and Gambian training set predicted progression up to two years before onset of disease in blinded test set samples from South Africa, the Gambia, and Ethiopia with little population-associated variability, and it was also validated in an external cohort of South African adolescents with latent M. tuberculosis infection. By contrast, published diagnostic or prognostic TB signatures were predicted in samples from some but not all three countries, indicating site-specific variability. Post hoc meta-analysis identified a single gene pair, C1QC/TRAV27 (complement C1q C-chain / T-cell receptor-a variable gene 27) that would consistently predict TB progression in household contacts from multiple African sites but not in infected adolescents without known recent exposure events. Conclusions: Collectively, we developed a simple whole blood-based PCR test to predict TB in recently exposed household contacts from diverse African populations. This test has potential for implementation in national TB contact investigation programs.

Nigeria has an emerging problem with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). Whole-genome sequencing was used to understand the epidemiology of tuberculosis and genetics of multi-drug resistance among patients from two tertiary referral centers in Southwest Nigeria. In line with previous molecular epidemiology studies, most isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis from this dataset belonged to the Cameroon clade within the Euro-American lineage. Phylogenetic analysis showed this clade was undergoing clonal expansion in this region, and suggests that it was involved in community transmission of sensitive and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Five patients enrolled for retreatment were infected with pre-extensively drug resistant (pre-XDR) due to fluoroquinolone resistance in isolates from the Cameroon clade. In all five cases resistance was conferred through a mutation in the gyrA gene. In some patients, genomic changes occurred in bacterial isolates during the course of treatment that potentially led to decreased drug susceptibility. We conclude that inter-patient transmission of resistant isolates, principally from the Cameroon clade, contributes to the spread of MDR-TB in this setting, underscoring the urgent need to curb the spread of multi-drug resistance in this region.

Rotavirus is the leading cause of diarrhea in children5 years of age. In light of the implementation of rotavirus vaccines of limited valency, it is important to characterize the genotypic diversity of circulating rotavirus in sub-Saharan Africa.We collected stool samples from children 0-59 months of age who presented at the health centres as cases with moderate-to-severe diarrhea in the Upper River Region of The Gambia. Stool samples were also collected from age, sex and area-matched healthy controls. All stool samples were assayed for rotavirus antigens by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and genotyping was done using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction.We enrolled 1029 cases and 1569 controls during the 3-year study period (2008-2010). The detection rate of rotavirus among the cases was 20% (204/1029) and 3% (42/1569) among controls. At least 18 genotypes were found and the predominant genotypes were G2P[6] (28%), G1P[8] (26%) and G1P[10] (10%). The rare identified genotypes (1%) were G2P[14], G8P[6], G9P[6] and G4P[10]. There was also a strong positive association between rotavirus infection and the dry season (odds ratio: 9.83, 95% confidence interval: 6.18-15.63, P0.001). A significant increase in the odds of rotavirus and G1P[8] detection with the use of untreated water and the presence of cats, rodents and cows in the child's residence was also found.This study provides important baseline data for the genotypes circulating before vaccine implementation. The wide diversity of genotypes circulating in The Gambia implies the need for vigilant effectiveness surveillance following the implementation of RotaTeq in August 2013.

Purulent pericarditis (PP) is a very serious condition with almost 100% mortality if untreated. Intrapericardial fibrinolysis is a preferred alternative to pericardectomy in the treatment of persistent PP, but there are no consensus guidelines on the standard protocol for this procedure in children. A 9-year-old boy was referred to the Medical Research Council Unit in The Gambia (MRC). He had been unwell for 18 days with a high continuous fever, cough, fast breathing, and dyspnoea on exertion. Prior to referral he had been treated for malaria and pneumonia with no improvement. At the MRC, he was diagnosed with purulent pericarditis caused by Staphylococcus aureus and after admission he was managed for 4 weeks with intravenous antibiotics, pericardial aspirations followed by saline lavage of the pericardium and intrapericardial antibiotic instillation. Despite these measures, massive re-accumulation of the purulent pericardial effusion continued. Once daily intrapericardial instillation of streptokinase at a dose of 18,000 i.u/kg diluted in 50 ml of normal saline, and saline washout of the pericardium after 2 hours was commenced on the 29th day of admission, in addition to the antibiotics. This technique of fibrinolysis employed for 2 days was effective in managing the persistent purulent pericarditis when pericardial aspiration and intravenous and intrapericardial antibiotics failed.

In 2012, an outbreak of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup W135 occurred in The Gambia. The attack rate was highest among young children. The associated risk factors were male sex, contact with meningitis patients, and difficult breathing. Enhanced surveillance facilitates early epidemic detection, and multiserogroup conjugate vaccine could reduce meningococcal epidemics in The Gambia.

BACKGROUND: Drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) is a global public health problem. Adequate management requires baseline drug-resistance prevalence data. In West Africa, due to a poor laboratory infrastructure and inadequate capacity, such data are scarce. Therefore, the true extent of drug-resistant TB was hitherto undetermined. In 2008, a new research network, the West African Network of Excellence for Tuberculosis, AIDS and Malaria (WANETAM), was founded, comprising nine study sites from eight West African countries (Burkina Faso, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal and Togo). The goal was to establish Good Clinical Laboratory Practice (GCLP) principles and build capacity in standardised smear microscopy and mycobacterial culture across partnering laboratories to generate the first comprehensive West African drug-resistance data. METHODS: Following GCLP and laboratory training sessions, TB isolates were collected at sentinel referral sites between 2009-2013 and tested for first- and second-line drug resistance. RESULTS: From the analysis of 974 isolates, an unexpectedly high prevalence of multi-drug-resistant (MDR) strains was found in new (6 %) and retreatment patients (35 %) across all sentinel sites, with the highest prevalence amongst retreatment patients in Bamako, Mali (59 %) and the two Nigerian sites in Ibadan and Lagos (39 % and 66 %). In Lagos, MDR is already spreading actively amongst 32 % of new patients. Pre-extensively drug-resistant (pre-XDR) isolates are present in all sites, with Ghana showing the highest proportion (35 % of MDR). In Ghana and Togo, pre-XDR isolates are circulating amongst new patients. CONCLUSIONS: West African drug-resistance prevalence poses a previously underestimated, yet serious public health threat, and our estimates obtained differ significantly from previous World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates. Therefore, our data are reshaping current concepts and are essential in informing WHO and public health strategists to implement urgently needed surveillance and control interventions in West Africa.

Setting: Greater Banjul and Upper River Regions, The Gambia.\ud \ud Objective: To investigate tractable social, environmental and nutritional risk factors for childhood pneumonia.\ud \ud Design: A case-control study examining the association of crowding, household air pollution (HAP) and nutritional factors with pneumonia was undertaken in children aged 2–59 months: 458 children with severe pneumonia, defined according to the modified WHO criteria, were compared with 322 children with non-severe pneumonia, and these groups were compared to 801 neighbourhood controls. Controls were matched by age, sex, area and season.\ud \ud Results: Strong evidence was found of an association between bed-sharing with someone with a cough and severe pneumonia (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.1, 95%CI 3.2–8.2, P < 0.001) and non-severe pneumonia (aOR 7.3, 95%CI 4.1–13.1, P < 0.001), with 18% of severe cases estimated to be attributable to this risk factor. Malnutrition and pneumonia had clear evidence of association, which was strongest between severe malnutrition and severe pneumonia (aOR 8.7, 95%CI 4.2–17.8, P < 0.001). No association was found between pneumonia and individual carbon monoxide exposure as a measure of HAP.\ud \ud Conclusion: Bed-sharing with someone with a cough is an important risk factor for severe pneumonia, and potentially tractable to intervention, while malnutrition remains an important tractable determinant.

Comment in : Screen-and-treat for chronic hepatitis B: an overdue issue for sub-Saharan Africa./Allain JP. Lancet Glob Health. 2016 Aug;4(8):e507-8. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30140-1. PMID: 27443770; International audience; Background: Despite the introduction of immunisation for hepatitis B virus (HBV) in the 1990s, HBV-related morbidity and mortality remain high in sub-Saharan Africa. Identification and treatment of asymptomatic people with chronic HBV infection should reduce the disease burden. We therefore assessed the feasibility of a screen-and-treat programme for HBV infection in The Gambia, west Africa, and estimated the proportion of HBV-infected people who had significant liver disease in need of treatment.Methods: Between Dec 7, 2011, and Jan 24, 2014, individuals living in randomly selected communities in western Gambia were offered hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) screening via a point-of-care test. The test was also offered to potential blood donors attending the central hospital in the capital, Banjul. HBsAg-positive individuals were invited for a comprehensive liver assessment and were offered treatment according to international guidelines. We defined linkage to care as visiting the liver clinic at least once. Eligibility for treatment was judged in accordance with the 2012 European Association for the Study of the Liver guidelines.Findings: HBsAg screening was accepted by 5980 (weighted estimate 68·9%, 95% CI 65·0-72·4) of 8170 adults from 27 rural and 27 urban communities and 5559 (81·4%, 80·4-82·3) of 6832 blood donors. HBsAg was detected in 495 (8·8%, 7·9-9·7) individuals in communities and 721 (13·0%, 12·1-13·9) blood donors. Prevalence was higher in men (239 [10·5%, 8·9-12·1] of 2328 men vs 256 [7·6%, 6·5-8·7] of 3652 women; p=0·004) and middle-aged participants. Linkage to care was high in the communities, with 402 (81·3%) of 495 HBsAg-positive individuals attending the clinic. However, only 300 (41·6%) of 721 HBsAg-positive people screened at the blood bank linked into care. Of those who attended the clinic, 18 (4·4%, 2·5-7·7) patients from the communities and 29 (9·7%, 6·8-13·6) from the blood bank were eligible for treatment. Male sex was strongly associated with treatment eligibility (odds ratio 4·35, 1·50-12·58; p=0·007).Interpretation: HBV infection remains highly prevalent in The Gambia. The high coverage of community-based screening, good linkage into care, and the small proportion of HBsAg carriers who need treatment suggest that large-scale screening and treatment programmes are feasible in sub-Saharan Africa.Funding: European Commission (FP7).

A crucial requirement in the rational design of a prophylactic vaccine against the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is to establish whether or not protective immunity can occur following natural infection. The immune response to HIV infection is characterized by very vigorous HIV-specific cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) activity. We have identified four HIV-1 and HIV-2 cross-reactive peptide epitopes, presented to CTL from HIV-infected Gambians by HLA-B35 (the most common Gambian class I HLA molecule). These peptides were used to elicit HIV-specific CTLs from three out of six repeatedly exposed but HIV-seronegative female prostitutes with HLA-B35. These women remain seronegative with no evidence of HIV infection by polymerase chain reaction or viral culture. Their CTL activity may represent protective immunity against HIV infection.A crucial requirement in the rational design of a prophylactic vaccine against HIV is to establish whether or not protective immunity can occur following natural infection. The immune response to HIV infection is characterized by very vigorous HIV-specific cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) activity. Four HIV-1 and HIV-2 cross-reactive peptide epitopes were identified, presented to CTL from HIV-infected Gambian women by HLA-B35 (the most common Gambian class 1 HLA molecule). The study population consisted of 20 women: 14 had been prostitutes for more than 5 years and reported little condom usage and 6 were long-term sexual partners of HIV-infected men. Peptide-stimulated cultures were also set up from 8 known seropositive donors with HLA-B35 or B53, and from a control group of volunteers at low-risk of HIV infection with HLA-B35 (12 Gambian and 7 European) and 2 Gambians with HLA-B53. Specific CTL activity against one or more peptides was repeatedly detected after 10-14 days in the peptide-stimulated cultures from 3 of the 6 high-risk seronegative women with HLA-B35, but not in their three counterparts with HLA-B53 nor in any of the low-risk volunteers. The strongest responses were generated toward the HIV-1 pol peptide, which lies close to the active site of reverse transcriptase, and to the nef peptide, which is conserved between HIV-1 and -2. HIV-specific CTL in seronegative subjects could potentially be a response to acute HIV infection, before the development of antibodies, but the women were still seronegative and virus-culture negative 3 months after the CTL were first detected, making recent infection extremely unlikely. These women remain seronegative with no evidence of HIV infection by polymerase chain reaction or viral culture. Their CTL activity may represent protective immunity against HIV infection.

Genetic factors may affect the susceptibility to tuberculosis, but no specific genes governing susceptibility have been identified. In mice, natural resistance to infection with some mycobacteria is influenced by the gene for natural-resistance-associated macrophage protein 1 (Nramp1), but the role of the human homologue of this gene, NRAMP1, in tuberculosis is unknown. We typed polymorphisms in NRAMP1 in a case-control study of tuberculosis in the Gambia, West Africa.Sequence-specific oligonucleotide hybridization and microsatellite analysis were used to type NRAMP1 polymorphisms in 410 adults (mean age, 34.7 years) with smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis and 417 ethnically matched, healthy controls. Patients with human immunodeficiency virus infection were excluded.Four NRAMP1 polymorphisms were each significantly associated with tuberculosis. Subjects who were heterozygous for two NRAMP1 polymorphisms in intron 4 and the 3' untranslated region of the gene were particularly overrepresented among those with tuberculosis, as compared with those with the most common NRAMP1 genotype (odds ratio, 4.07; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.86 to 9.12; chi-square= 14.58; P0.001).Genetic variation in NRAMP1 affects susceptibility to tuberculosis in West Africans.The authors typed polymorphisms in the human gene for natural-resistance-associated macrophage protein 1 (NRAMP1) in a case-control study of tuberculosis (TB) in the Gambia to determine whether genetic factors affect human susceptibility to TB. Sequence-specific oligonucleotide hybridization and microsatellite analysis were used to type NRAMP1 polymorphisms in 410 adults over age 16 years (mean age, 34.7 years) with smear-positive pulmonary TB and 417 ethnically matched, healthy controls. HIV-infected patients were excluded. 4 NRAMP1 polymorphisms were each significantly associated with TB. Subjects heterozygous for two NRAMP1 polymorphisms in intron 4 and the 3' untranslated region of the gene were especially overrepresented among those with TB, compared with those with the most common NRAMP1 genotype. It may therefore be concluded that genetic variation in NRAMP1 affects susceptibility to TB in West Africans.

We combined two tuberculosis genome-wide association studies from Ghana and The Gambia with subsequent replication in a combined 11,425 individuals. rs4331426, located in a gene-poor region on chromosome 18q11.2, was associated with disease (combined P = 6.8 x 10(-9), odds ratio = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.13-1.27). Our study demonstrates that genome-wide association studies can identify new susceptibility loci for infectious diseases, even in African populations, in which levels of linkage disequilibrium are particularly low.

BACKGROUND: A substantial decline in malaria was reported to have occurred over several years until 2007 in the western part of The Gambia, encouraging consideration of future elimination in this previously highly endemic region. Scale up of interventions has since increased with support from the Global Fund and other donors. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We continued to examine laboratory records at four health facilities previously studied and investigated six additional facilities for a 7 year period, adding data from 243,707 slide examinations, to determine trends throughout the country until the end of 2009. We actively detected infections in a community cohort of 800 children living in rural villages throughout the 2008 malaria season, and assayed serological changes in another rural population between 2006 and 2009. Proportions of malaria positive slides declined significantly at all of the 10 health facilities between 2003 (annual mean across all sites, 38.7%) and 2009 (annual mean, 7.9%). Statistical modelling of trends confirmed significant seasonality and decline over time at each facility. Slide positivity was lowest in 2009 at all sites, except two where lowest levels were observed in 2006. Mapping households of cases presenting at the latter sites in 2007-2009 indicated that these were not restricted to a few residual foci. Only 2.8% (22/800) of a rural cohort of children had a malaria episode in the 2008 season, and there was substantial serological decline between 2006 and 2009 in a separate rural area. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria has continued to decline in The Gambia, as indicated by a downward trend in slide positivity at health facilities, and unprecedented low incidence and seroprevalence in community surveys. We recommend intensification of control interventions for several years to further reduce incidence, prior to considering an elimination programme.

To describe how through a DSS in a rural area of The Gambia it has been possible to measure substantial reductions in child mortality rates and how we investigated whether the decline paralleled the registered fall in malaria incidence in the country. METHODS: Demographic surveillance data spanning 19.5 years (1 April 1989-30 September 2008) from 42 villages around the town of Farafenni The Gambia were used to estimate childhood mortality rates for neonatal infant child (1-4 years) and under-5 age groups. Data were presented in five a priori defined time periods and annual rates per 1000 live births were derived from Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities. RESULTS: From 1989-1992 to 2004-2008 under-5 mortality declined by 56% (95% CI: 48-63%) from 165 (95% CI: 151-181) per 1000 live births to 74 (95% CI: 65-84) per 1000 live births. In 1- to 4-year-olds mortality during the period 2004-2008 was 69% (95% CI: 60-76%) less than in 1989-1992. The corresponding mortality decline in infants was 39% (95% CI: 23-52%); in neonates it was 38% (95% CI: 13-66%). The derived annual under-5 mortality rates declined from 159 per 1000 live births in 1990 to 45 per 1000 live births in 2008 thus implying an attainment of MDG4 seven years in advance of the target year of 2015. CONCLUSION: Achieving MDG4 is possible in poor rural areas of Africa through widespread deployment of relatively simple measures that improve child survival such as immunisation and effective malaria control. (c) 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

1 Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK2 The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria, Geneva, Switzerland3 Special Programme for Research & Training in Tropical Diseases, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland4 Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya5 NHS Wandsworth, London, UK6 Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia7 Laboratoire de Bacteriologie Virologie, Universite Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal8 Communicable Diseases, HLSP, Pretoria, South Africa9 National TB and Leprosy Programme, Tanzania Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania10 Medical Research Council, Fajara, the Gambia11 Infectious Disease Institute, Kampala, Uganda

Summary The objective of this study was to establish haematological reference ranges for the West African subregion using a Gambian cohort. We analysed full blood counts from 1279 subjects aged ≥1 year. Anthropometric and body composition measurements were performed. Haematological mean values, medians and 90% reference values were calculated and related to malnutrition in children and thinness and/or obesity in adults. Haemoglobin (Hb) and mean corpuscular volume (MCV) significantly increased with age (P

BACKGROUND: There is considerable variability in the outcome of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. We hypothesized that Mycobacterium africanum was less likely than M. tuberculosis to transmit and progress to tuberculosis disease. METHODS: In a cohort study of patients with tuberculosis and their household contacts in The Gambia, we categorized 1808 HIV-negative tuberculosis contacts according to exposure to M. tuberculosis or M. africanum. Positive skin test results indicated transmission, and development of tuberculosis during 2 years of follow-up indicated progression to disease. RESULTS: Transmission rates were similar, but rates of progression to disease were significantly lower in contacts exposed to M. africanum than in those exposed to M. tuberculosis (1.0% vs. 2.9%; hazard ratio [HR], 3.1 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.1-8.7]). Within M. tuberculosis sensu stricto, contacts exposed to a Beijing family strain were most likely to progress to disease (5.6%; HR relative to M. africanum, 6.7 [95% CI, 2.0-22]). CONCLUSIONS: M. africanum and M. tuberculosis transmit equally well to household contacts, but contacts exposed to M. africanum are less likely to progress to tuberculosis disease than those exposed to M. tuberculosis. The variable rate of progression by lineage suggests that tuberculosis variability matters in clinical settings and should be accounted for in studies evaluating tuberculosis vaccines and treatment regimens for latent tuberculosis infection

BACKGROUND: In 1997, The Gambia became the first African country to introduce conjugate Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine with good disease control through to 2010. METHODS: Culture-based surveillance for invasive bacterial disease in eastern Gambia, specifically the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System (BHDSS) area, was conducted from 12 May 2008 and in Fuladu West district from 12 September 2011 until 31 December 2013. In 2011, Hib serology was measured in 5-34-year-olds. RESULTS: In all, 16,735 of 17,932 (93%) eligible patients were investigated. We detected 57 cases of invasive H. influenzae disease; 24 (42%) were type b. No cases of Hib disease were detected in the BHDSS area in 2008-2009; 1 was detected in 2010, 2 in 2011, 4 in 2012 and 7 in 2013. In 2013, the incidence of Hib disease in those aged 2-11 and 2-59 months in the BHDSS area was 88 [95% confidence interval (CI): 29-207] and 22 (95% CI: 9-45) cases per 10⁵ person-years, respectively. In 2013, disease incidence in Fuladu West among those aged 0-59 months was 26 (95% CI: 7-67) cases per 10⁵ person-years. Nine of 24 Hib cases were vaccine failures (2 HIV positive) and 9 were too young to have been vaccinated. The proportion of children aged 5-6 years (n = 223) with anti-Hib IgG ≥1.0 μg/mL was 67%; the antibody nadir was in 9-14-year-olds (n = 58) with 55% above threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Hib disease in eastern Gambia has increased in recent years. Surveillance in developing countries should remain alert to detect such changes.

Simple robust approaches are needed to monitor the prevalence and incidence of HIV in Africa. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of dried blood spot (DBS) as an alternative to serum or plasma for sentinel surveillance. Paired DBS and blood samples were obtained from 200 patients attending a genito-urinary medicine clinic in West Africa. The gold standard of diagnosis was based on the combination of 3 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) using serum. The presence of HIV antibodies in eluates of dried blood spots was detected by ELISA, Gelatin Particle Assay (GPA) and Pepti-Lav 1-2 in 5 different testing strategies. All 200 eluates were tested individually, and in addition pools of 5 eluates each were tested. The sensitivity of the testing strategies ranged from 95.0% (83.1 - 99.4%) to 100% and the specificity from 97.5% (93.7 - 99.3%) to 100%. Testing in pools of 5 did not affect sensitivity. Dried blood spots were easy to work with. Test kit and laboratory consumable costs varied between 492 pounds and 1037 pounds (unpooled strategies) and 163 pounds and 421 pounds (pooled). The monospecific ELISAs used in this study are no longer in production; currently available differentiating assays need to be tested. DBS are recommended for sentinel surveillance in Africa.

Routine immunisation of infants in The Gambia with a Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) polysaccharide-tetanus toxoid conjugate vaccine began in May, 1997. We investigated the effectiveness of the vaccine when delivered through the expanded programme on immunisation and the effect of national immunisation on incidence of Hib disease.Surveillance for Hib disease was maintained in the western half of The Gambia using standard methods with an emphasis on meningitis. We estimated vaccine efficacy using the case control method, and vaccine coverage and population denominators for incidence rates using a cluster sample survey. Prevalence of Hib carriage in a sample of 1-2-year old children attending health centres for vaccination was ascertained with oropharyngeal swabs plated onto antiserum agar.Between May, 1997, and April, 2002, a total of 5984 children were examined for possible Hib infections. 49 children had Hib disease, 36 of whom had meningitis. The annual incidence rates of Hib meningitis before any use of the vaccine (1990-93) dropped from over 200 per 100,000 children aged younger than 1 year to none per 100,000 in 2002, and from 60 to no cases per 100,000 in children younger than 5 years. The prevalence of Hib carriage decreased from 12% to 0.25% (p0.0001). Two doses of vaccine were needed for direct protection from Hib disease (vaccine efficacy 94%, 95% CI 62-99). Since most children received a protective dose after the age of greatest disease risk, indirect effects were important in reducing disease incidence.The Gambian Hib immunisation programme reduced the occurrence of Hib disease despite irregular vaccine supply. The effect of the programme in The Gambia has important implications for the introduction of the vaccine into routine immunisation programmes of other developing countries.

A characteristic retinopathy associated with a poor prognosis has previously been described in African children with established cerebral malaria. However, relatively little is known about retinal abnormalities in children with severe non-cerebral malaria, the group most at risk of developing the cerebral complications of this disease. In this study the prevalence, pattern, clinical significance and accessibility to clinical examination of this characteristic retinopathy are described in 106 Gambian children admitted consecutively to hospital with severe malaria, including six with established cerebral malaria.

The purified protein derivative (PPD) skin test for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection lacks specificity. We assessed 2 more specific M. tuberculosis antigens (ESAT-6 and CFP-10) by enzyme-linked immunospot assay (ELISPOT) compared with PPD by ELISPOT and skin test in The Gambia. Of 735 household contacts of 130 sputum smear‐positive tuberculosis cases, 476 (65%) tested positive by PPD ELISPOT, 300 (41%) tested positive by PPD skin test, and 218 (30%) tested positive by ESAT-6/CFP-10 ELISPOT. Only 15 (2%) had positive ESAT6/CFP-10 results and negative PPD results by ELISPOT. With increasing M. tuberculosis exposure, the percentage of subjects who were PPD skin test positive/ESAT-6/CFP-10 ELISPOT negative increased ( ), P ! .001 whereas the percentage of subjects who were PPD skin test negative/PPD ELISPOT positive decreased (P p ). Eighteen (31%) ESAT-6/CFP-10 ELISPOT‐positive subjects in the lowest exposure category had negative .011 PPD skin test results. ESAT-6/CFP-10 ELISPOT probably offers increased specificity in the diagnosis of M. tuberculosis infection in this tropical setting of endemicity, at the cost of some sensitivity.

Background: Identification of basic prognostic indicators or HIV infection is essential before widespread antiretroviral therapy can be implemented in low-technology settings. This study assessed how well body mass index (BMI:kg/m 2 ) predicts survival. Methods: BMI within 3 months of HIV diagnosis was obtained from 1657 patients aged ≥15 years, recruited in a scroprevalent clinical cohort in The Gambia since 1992 and followed up at least once. Baseline CD4 + counts and clinical assessment at time of diagnosis were done. Results: The mortality hazard ratio (HR) of those with a baseline BMI

Objective: To examine baseline plasma viral loads according to the CD4 cell percentage (CD4%) in HIV-1 HIV-2 and dually infected patients (HIV-D) and to relate these measurements to survival. Patients and methods: A total of 119 HIV-1 137 HIV-2 and 81 HIV-D-infected patients attending the Medical Research Council clinic in Gambia were recruited from 1991 according to baseline CD4% and followed until death or the end of December 2000. HIV-1 and HIV-2 RNA levels were measured by in-house reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction assays. Results: The plasma viral load which varied inversely with CD4% was similar in HIV-1 singly and dually infected patients but was significantly higher in HIV-1 than in HIV-2 singly infected patients except in those with a CD4% less than 14%. HIV-2 plasma viral load in dually infected patients did not vary significantly with CD4% but was significantly lower than in HIV-2 singly infected patients with CD4% less than 14%. Multivariate analysis showed that only CD4% was independently associated with survival in HIV-1 and HIV-D infections; whereas both CD4% and plasma viral load were independently associated with survival in HIV-2 infections. The mortality rate of HIV-D-infected patients was not significantly different from that of HIV-1- infected patients but was significantly higher in the absence of HLA B58. Conclusion: HIV-2 infection does not alter HIV-1 replication or prolong survival in dually infected patients. In a clinical setting in Africa where many patients present with advanced disease CD4% may be a more important predictor of prognosis than plasma viral load. (authors)