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Tundra and boreal ecosystems encompass the northern circumpolar permafrost region and are experiencing rapid environmental change with important implications for the global carbon (C) budget. We analysed multi-decadal time series containing 302 annual estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) flux across 70 permafrost and non-permafrost ecosystems, and 672 estimates of summer CO2 flux across 181 ecosystems. We find an increase in the annual CO2 sink across non-permafrost ecosystems but not permafrost ecosystems, despite similar increases in summer uptake. Thus, recent non-growing-season CO2 losses have substantially impacted the CO2 balance of permafrost ecosystems. Furthermore, analysis of interannual variability reveals warmer summers amplify the C cycle (increase productivity and respiration) at putatively nitrogen-limited sites and at sites less reliant on summer precipitation for water use. Our findings suggest that water and nutrient availability will be important predictors of the C-cycle response of these ecosystems to future warming.

Wetlands are responsible for 20%–31% of global methane (CH4) emissions and account for a large source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget. Data-driven upscaling of CH4 fluxes from eddy covariance measurements can provide new and independent bottom-up estimates of wetland CH4 emissions. Here, we develop a six-predictor random forest upscaling model (UpCH4), trained on 119 site-years of eddy covariance CH4 flux data from 43 freshwater wetland sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 Community Product. Network patterns in site-level annual means and mean seasonal cycles of CH4 fluxes were reproduced accurately in tundra, boreal, and temperate regions (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency ∼0.52–0.63 and 0.53). UpCH4 estimated annual global wetland CH4 emissions of 146 ± 43 TgCH4 y−1 for 2001–2018 which agrees closely with current bottom-up land surface models (102–181 TgCH4 y−1) and overlaps with top-down atmospheric inversion models (155–200 TgCH4 y−1). However, UpCH4 diverged from both types of models in the spatial pattern and seasonal dynamics of tropical wetland emissions. We conclude that upscaling of eddy covariance CH4 fluxes has the potential to produce realistic extra-tropical wetland CH4 emissions estimates which will improve with more flux data. To reduce uncertainty in upscaled estimates, researchers could prioritize new wetland flux sites along humid-to-arid tropical climate gradients, from major rainforest basins (Congo, Amazon, and SE Asia), into monsoon (Bangladesh and India) and savannah regions (African Sahel) and be paired with improved knowledge of wetland extent seasonal dynamics in these regions. The monthly wetland methane products gridded at 0.25° from UpCH4 are available via ORNL DAAC (https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/2253).

Forest ecological restoration by burning is widely applied to promote natural, early-successional sites and increase landscape biodiversity. Burning is also used as a forest management practice to facilitate forest regeneration after clearcutting. Besides the desired goals, restoration burnings also affect soil biogeochemistry, particularly soil organic matter (SOM) and related soil carbon stocks but the long-term effects are poorly understood. However, in order to study these effects, a reliable estimate of spatial variability is first needed for effective sampling. Here we investigate spatial variability of SOM and vegetation features 13 years after burnings and in combination with variable harvest levels. We sampled four experimental sites representing distinct management and restoration treatments with an undisturbed control. While variability of vegetation cover and biomass was generally higher in disturbed sites, soil parameter variability was not different between the four sites. The joint ecological patterns of soil and vegetation parameters across the whole sample continuum support well the prior assumptions on the characteristic disturbance conditions within each of the study sites. We designed and employed statistical simulations as a means to plan prospective sampling. Sampling six forest sites for each treatment type with 30 independent soil cores per site would provide enough statistical power to adequately capture the impacts of burning on SOM based on the data we obtained here and statistical simulations. In conclusion, we argue that an informed design-based approach to documenting the ecosystem effects of forest burnings is worth applying both through obtaining new data and meta-analysing the existing.

Passive rewildening of forest ecosystems is commonly used for rehabilitating degraded habitats closer to their natural origin in addition to costly active restoration measures. However, it is not clear if passive processes are effective and how long the recovery of main ecosystem properties takes. We investigate the recovery of forest soil and tree stand characteristics a century after cessation of slash-and-burn cultivation, a major historical intensive disturbance regime that was applied widely in boreal zone of Finland until late 1800s. We systematically sampled soil and tree stand parameters within former slash-and-burn and nearby control areas. Humus layer thickness and soil organic matter (SOM) stocks were still lower in the historical slash-and-burn than in control areas. Slash-and-burn areas also had a larger volume of live birch trees and a higher standing dead wood volume than control areas. Accordingly, organic matter (humus layer thickness and SOM stocks) correlated negatively with birch standing live tree volume. Combined OM stock in humus and uppermost 10 cm mineral soil layer was positively correlated with lying dead wood volume. Overall, we observed clear recovery of several natural properties but we also found that a century after cessation of frequent anthropogenic burnings, clear legacies of disturbance in the above- and below-ground parts of boreal ecosystem were evident. Our results indicate that if only passive rewildening is applied as a restoration measure, the full recovery of boreal forest is slow and the effects of historical land-use may persist for over hundred years in soil and tree properties.

Wetland CH₄ emissions are among the most uncertain components of the global CH₄ budget. The complex nature of wetland CH₄ processes makes it challenging to identify causal relationships for improving our understanding and predictability of CH₄ emissions. In this study, we used the flux measurements of CH₄ from eddy covariance towers (30 sites from 4 wetlands types: bog, fen, marsh, and wet tundra) to construct a causality-constrained machine learning (ML) framework to explain the regulative factors and to capture CH₄ emissions at sub-seasonal scale. We found that soil temperature is the dominant factor for CH₄ emissions in all studied wetland types. Ecosystem respiration (CO₂) and gross primary productivity exert controls at bog, fen, and marsh sites with lagged responses of days to weeks. Integrating these asynchronous environmental and biological causal relationships in predictive models significantly improved model performance. More importantly, modeled CH₄ emissions differed by up to a factor of 4 under a +1°C warming scenario when causality constraints were considered. These results highlight the significant role of causality in modeling wetland CH₄ emissions especially under future warming conditions, while traditional data-driven ML models may reproduce observations for the wrong reasons. Our proposed causality-guided model could benefit predictive modeling, large-scale upscaling, data gap-filling, and surrogate modeling of wetland CH₄ emissions within earth system land models.

Our current knowledge of the P retention efficiency of peatland buffer zone areas used to reduce sediment and nutrient leaching from forestry areas is insufficient. Especially the role of P sorption by soil in buffer zones needs closer examination as there is considerable variation in the efficiency of P retention. Six sites in southern Finland were chosen for the study. The buffer zone areas varied between 0.1â4.9% of the catchment area. A total of 10 kg of solute POâP was added to the inflow of the buffer zone areas and the concentrations of POâP in inflow and outflow were measured for 2â4 years. P retention characteristics of the surface peat were determined with sorption-desorption isotherms before and after POâP addition and the effective buffer zone area over which the added P was spread was determined from soil water samples. P retention in the two largest buffer zone areas was complete (100% retention), and the third largest buffer retained 94%. Retention in the three smallest buffer zones was 24%, 95% and 95% of the added P. As a result of P addition reduction in peat P retention capacity was detected in three out of four cases. The effective buffer zone area varied from 67% to 100% of the total buffer zone area. Factors contributing to efficient P retention were large buffer size and low hydrological load whereas high hydrological load combined with the formation of preferential flow paths, especially during early spring or late autumn was disadvantageous. High P retention capacity in peat contributed to the sustainability of P retention. The study showed that even relatively small buffer zone areas are able to efficiently reduce P load.444

Past efforts to synthesize and quantify the magnitude and change in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems across the rapidly warming Arctic-boreal zone (ABZ) have provided valuable information but were limited in their geographical and temporal coverage. Furthermore, these efforts have been based on data aggregated over varying time periods, often with only minimal site ancillary data, thus limiting their potential to be used in large-scale carbon budget assessments. To bridge these gaps, we developed a standardized monthly database of Arctic-boreal CO2 fluxes (ABCflux) that aggregates in situ measurements of terrestrial net ecosystem CO2 exchange and its derived partitioned component fluxes: gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration. The data span from 1989 to 2020 with over 70 supporting variables that describe key site conditions (e.g., vegetation and disturbance type), micrometeorological and environmental measurements (e.g., air and soil temperatures), and flux measurement techniques. Here, we describe these variables, the spatial and temporal distribution of observations, the main strengths and limitations of the database, and the potential research opportunities it enables. In total, ABCflux includes 244 sites and 6309 monthly observations; 136 sites and 2217 monthly observations represent tundra, and 108 sites and 4092 observations represent the boreal biome. The database includes fluxes estimated with chamber (19% of the monthly observations), snow diffusion (3%) and eddy covariance (78%) techniques. The largest number of observations were collected during the climatological summer (June-August; 32%), and fewer observations were available for autumn (September-October; 25%), winter (December-February; 18%), and spring (March-May; 25%). ABCflux can be used in a wide array of empirical, remote sensing and modeling studies to improve understanding of the regional and temporal variability in CO2 fluxes and to better estimate the terrestrial ABZ CO2 budget. ABCflux is openly and freely available online (Virkkala et al., 2021b, 10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1934). Copyright:

Time series of wetland methane fluxes measured by eddy covariance require gap-filling to estimate daily, seasonal, and annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for wetland methane fluxes, with regards both to the best model algorithms and predictors. This study synthesizes results of different gap-filling methods systematically applied at 17 wetland sites spanning boreal to tropical regions and including all major wetland classes and two rice paddies. Procedures are proposed for: 1) creating realistic artificial gap scenarios, 2) training and evaluating gap-filling models without overstating performance, and 3) predicting half-hourly methane fluxes and annual emissions with realistic uncertainty estimates. Performance is compared between a conventional method (marginal distribution sampling) and four machine learning algorithms. The conventional method achieved similar median performance as the machine learning models but was worse than the best machine learning models and relatively insensitive to predictor choices. Of the machine learning models, decision tree algorithms performed the best in cross-validation experiments, even with a baseline predictor set, and artificial neural networks showed comparable performance when using all predictors. Soil temperature was frequently the most important predictor whilst water table depth was important at sites with substantial water table fluctuations, highlighting the value of data on wetland soil conditions. Raw gap-filling uncertainties from the machine learning models were underestimated and we propose a method to calibrate uncertainties to observations. The python code for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty estimation is publicly available. This study outlines a modular and robust machine learning workflow and makes recommendations for, and evaluates an improved baseline of, methane gap-filling models that can be implemented in multi-site syntheses or standardized products from regional and global flux networks (e.g., FLUXNET).

While wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH4 ) to the atmosphere, they represent a large source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget due to the complex biogeochemical controls on CH4 dynamics. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first multi-site synthesis of how predictors of CH4 fluxes (FCH4) in freshwater wetlands vary across wetland types at diel, multiday (synoptic), and seasonal time scales. We used several statistical approaches (correlation analysis, generalized additive modeling, mutual information, and random forests) in a wavelet-based multi-resolution framework to assess the importance of environmental predictors, nonlinearities and lags on FCH4 across 23 eddy covariance sites. Seasonally, soil and air temperature were dominant predictors of FCH4 at sites with smaller seasonal variation in water table depth (WTD). In contrast, WTD was the dominant predictor for wetlands with smaller variations in temperature (e.g., seasonal tropical/subtropical wetlands). Changes in seasonal FCH4 lagged fluctuations in WTD by ~17 ± 11 days, and lagged air and soil temperature by median values of 8 ± 16 and 5 ± 15 days, respectively. Temperature and WTD were also dominant predictors at the multiday scale. Atmospheric pressure (PA) was another important multiday scale predictor for peat-dominated sites, with drops in PA coinciding with synchronous releases of CH4 . At the diel scale, synchronous relationships with latent heat flux and vapor pressure deficit suggest that physical processes controlling evaporation and boundary layer mixing exert similar controls on CH4 volatilization, and suggest the influence of pressurized ventilation in aerenchymatous vegetation. In addition, 1- to 4-h lagged relationships with ecosystem photosynthesis indicate recent carbon substrates, such as root exudates, may also control FCH4. By addressing issues of scale, asynchrony, and nonlinearity, this work improves understanding of the predictors and timing of wetland FCH4 that can inform future studies and models, and help constrain wetland CH4 emissions.

Wetland methane (CH4) emissions ([Formula: see text]) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, [Formula: see text] projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent [Formula: see text] temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that [Formula: see text] are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between [Formula: see text] and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH4 database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between [Formula: see text] and temperature, suggesting larger [Formula: see text] sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH4 production are thus needed to improve global CH4 budget assessments.

Methane (CH4) emissions from natural landscapes constitute roughly half of global CH4 contributions to the atmosphere, yet large uncertainties remain in the absolute magnitude and the seasonality of emission quantities and drivers. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements of CH4 flux are ideal for constraining ecosystem-scale CH4 emissions due to quasi-continuous and high-temporal-resolution CH4 flux measurements, coincident carbon dioxide, water, and energy flux measurements, lack of ecosystem disturbance, and increased availability of datasets over the last decade. Here, we (1) describe the newly published dataset, FLUXNET-CH4 Version 1.0, the first open-source global dataset of CH4 EC measurements (available at https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/, last access: 7 April 2021). FLUXNET-CH4 includes half-hourly and daily gap-filled and non-gap-filled aggregated CH4 fluxes and meteorological data from 79 sites globally: 42 freshwater wetlands, 6 brackish and saline wetlands, 7 formerly drained ecosystems, 7 rice paddy sites, 2 lakes, and 15 uplands. Then, we (2) evaluate FLUXNET-CH4 representativeness for freshwater wetland coverage globally because the majority of sites in FLUXNET-CH4 Version 1.0 are freshwater wetlands which are a substantial source of total atmospheric CH4 emissions; and (3) we provide the first global estimates of the seasonal variability and seasonality predictors of freshwater wetland CH4 fluxes. Our representativeness analysis suggests that the freshwater wetland sites in the dataset cover global wetland bioclimatic attributes (encompassing energy, moisture, and vegetation-related parameters) in arctic, boreal, and temperate regions but only sparsely cover humid tropical regions. Seasonality metrics of wetland CH4 emissions vary considerably across latitudinal bands. In freshwater wetlands (except those between 20g g€¯S to 20g g€¯N) the spring onset of elevated CH4 emissions starts 3g€¯d earlier, and the CH4 emission season lasts 4g€¯d longer, for each degree Celsius increase in mean annual air temperature. On average, the spring onset of increasing CH4 emissions lags behind soil warming by 1 month, with very few sites experiencing increased CH4 emissions prior to the onset of soil warming. In contrast, roughly half of these sites experience the spring onset of rising CH4 emissions prior to the spring increase in gross primary productivity (GPP). The timing of peak summer CH4 emissions does not correlate with the timing for either peak summer temperature or peak GPP. Our results provide seasonality parameters for CH4 modeling and highlight seasonality metrics that cannot be predicted by temperature or GPP (i.e., seasonality of CH4 peak). FLUXNET-CH4 is a powerful new resource for diagnosing and understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems and climate drivers in the global CH4 cycle, and future additions of sites in tropical ecosystems and site years of data collection will provide added value to this database. All seasonality parameters are available at 10.5281/zenodo.4672601 (Delwiche et al., 2021). Additionally, raw FLUXNET-CH4 data used to extract seasonality parameters can be downloaded from https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/ (last access: 7 April 2021), and a complete list of the 79 individual site data DOIs is provided in Table 2 of this paper.

Considerable progress has been made in ecological and evolutionary genetics with studies demonstrating how genes underlying plant and microbial traits can influence adaptation and even 'extend' to influence community structure and ecosystem level processes. Progress in this area is limited to model systems with deep genetic and genomic resources that often have negligible ecological impact or interest. Thus, important linkages between genetic adaptations and their consequences at organismal and ecological scales are often lacking. Here we introduce the Sphagnome Project, which incorporates genomics into a long-running history of Sphagnum research that has documented unparalleled contributions to peatland ecology, carbon sequestration, biogeochemistry, microbiome research, niche construction, and ecosystem engineering. The Sphagnome Project encompasses a genus-level sequencing effort that represents a new type of model system driven not only by genetic tractability, but by ecologically relevant questions and hypotheses.

Cold-season emissions substantially contribute to the annual methane budget of northern wetlands, yet they remain underestimated by process-based models. Models show significant uncertainty in their parameterization of processes, particularly during the transitional phases of freezing and thawing temperatures in the shoulder seasons. Our aim was to identify the environmental controls on the components of the methane fluxes – methane production, oxidation, and transport – from a boreal peatland during the shoulder seasons. We partitioned net methane emissions into their components by combining manual chamber flux measurements on vegetation removal treatments with pore water sampling for concentrations and stable carbon isotope ratios of dissolved methane in the wet hollows of Siikaneva bog in southern Finland during seasonal field campaigns in 2021 and 2022. The results suggest that the decrease in methane emissions due to decreasing production rates with decreasing peat temperatures in the shoulder seasons was dampened by several processes. Firstly, highly efficient transport of methane through the aerenchyma of peatland sedges continued outside of the growing season after plant senescence. Secondly, decaying vascular plants provided additional substrate for methane production at the end of the growing season. Thirdly, accumulation of methane in the pore water partly delayed the emission of methane produced in summer and winter to the shoulder seasons. Substrate-limited oxidation rates, however, largely compensated for the higher diffusion rates related to high pore water concentrations in fall. Accounting for these processes specific to the shoulder seasons by separately modeling the components of methane fluxes will likely work against the underestimation of cold-season methane emissions from northern peatlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Joint species distribution models (JSDM) are among the most important statistical tools in community ecology. However, existing JSDMs cannot model mutual exclusion between species. We tackle this deficiency in the context of modeling plant percentage cover data, where mutual exclusion arises from limited growing space and competition for light. We propose a hierarchical JSDM where latent Gaussian variable models describe species' niche preferences and Dirichlet‐Multinomial distribution models the observation process and competition between species. We also propose a decision theoretic model comparison and validation approach to assess the goodness of JSDMs in four different types of predictive tasks. We apply our models and methods to a case study on modeling vegetation cover in a boreal peatland. Our results show that ignoring the interspecific interactions and competition reduces models' predictive performance and leads to biased estimates for total percentage cover. Models' relative predictive performance also depends on the predictive task highlighting that model comparison and assessment should resemble the true predictive task. Our results also demonstrate that the proposed JSDM can be used to simultaneously infer interspecific correlations in niche preference as well as mutual competition for space and through that provide novel insight into ecological research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane and highly vulnerable to climate change. In our study we aim to better understand the environmental controls on the strength and seasonal variation of methane flux components from hollows, typically the high-emitting wettest microtopographic features in a boreal bog. We measured methane fluxes from intact vegetation as well as on vegetation removal treatments and analyzed pore water methane concentrations and stable carbon isotopes of dissolved and emitted methane. Using these data, we quantified the rates of total methane emission, methane oxidation and plant-mediated methane transport for the summer and shoulder seasons of 2021 and 2022. Total methane emissions from areas with intact vegetation range from 13 to 2171 mgCH4 m–2 d–1 during shoulder seasons and summer months and are mainly controlled by the leaf area of aerenchymatous plants. Methane oxidation in the Sphagnum moss layer decreases total methane emissions by 82 ± 20 % while transport of methane through aerenchymatous plants increases methane emissions by 80 ± 22 %. Both methane oxidation and plant-mediated methane transport rates follow a seasonal cycle with lower but still significant rates during the shoulder seasons compared to the summer months. As a net effect, the presence of Sphagnum mosses and vascular plants reduces methane emissions from the study site. This balance, however, appears to be highly sensitive to climate change, i.e. increasing soil temperatures and changing leaf area and composition of the wetland vegetation. The provided insights can help to improve the representation of environmental controls on the methane cycle and its seasonal dynamics in process-based models to more accurately predict future methane emissions from boreal peatlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]