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Byline: Kevin Van Trump Cornbulls remain hopeful... waiting for the USDA to dramatically lower total U.S. production. Rember, this will be the first one this year that uses actual field [...]

As for corn export demand, most think the USDA will leave its current estimate unchanged, to perhaps +50 million bushels larger. As usual, feed and residual will be a wild card depending on how the USDA wants to interpret or forecast corn used for livestock in the wake of coronavirus-related meat processing plant closures. Keep in mind, the USDA will also be tossing out its new-crop 2020-21 balance sheet forecast in the report. [Extracted from the article]

Corn prices continue to struggle as the fallout in crude oil becomes historically dangerous. A few weeks back the trade was talking perhaps -300 million to -500 million bushel reduction in corn demand, now all of a sudden the trade is thinking we could see a much larger reduction in corn used for ethanol. [Extracted from the article]

Fertilizer prices at home had been moving lower for several months, but I've started to notice a few ticking higher compared to last month, i.e.: anhydrous and UAN32. The U.S. has gradually been reducing imports from China and has access to several markets for procuring fertilizers, given the growing and abundant supply of fertilizers worldwide. Most of the phosphate imports into the U.S. as of late have been from Russia, while most urea imports came from Qatar, Canada, Algeria and Russia. [Extracted from the article]

The EIA's weekly ethanol data released yesterday showed a big bump in ethanol stocks to +24 million barrels up +1 million barrels from last week up over +2% from last year and again nearing the all-time record stockpile of 24.5 million estimated back in July. Bulls are thinking it will be too wet in areas to the northeast and could ultimately reduce some second-crop corn acres. Illinois plants around 11 million corn acres; Nebraska plants around 10 million corn acres; Minnesota plants around 8 million corn acres. [Extracted from the article]

Corn bulls continue to point towards nine million U.S. corn acres that are still thought to be unharvested. Of course, a Chinese trade deal that involved the purchase of U.S. corn would provide a significant tailwind, but who knows if or when that card gets flipped over. [Extracted from the article]

Corn bulls are pointing towards a U.S. harvest that continues to face significant delays and leaves a lot of bushels still in the field. The USDA now estimates the U.S. corn harvest is 89% complete vs. the 5-year average of 98% complete. From what I understand, the USDA will again be providing harvest updates next Monday... stay tuned!. [Extracted from the article]

Soybean traders continue to debate U.S. and South American production, along with Chinese demand uncertainties. Here at home, the USDA reported 75% of the U.S. soybean crop is now considered "harvested". There's arguably close to the same amount left harvest in the northern states between the Dakota's, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. [Extracted from the article]

The not so good news is the whispers that China is looking for the U.S. to roll back some of the previous tariffs before they fully agree to the massive agricultural purchases. The USDA reported the U.S,. soybean harvest at 26% complete vs. the 5-year average of 49%. [Extracted from the article]

The concerns about crude oil and continued strength in the U.S. dollar is doing very little to help the macro commodity landscape. In 2017 it was estimated that the Chinese had +200 MMTs of corn in reserves, more recent estimates suggest Chinese corn supply is down around 56 MMTs. [Extracted from the article]

I continue to hear talk that China is allowing around 5 MMTs of soybeans to come from the U.S. via October, November, December deliveries from the PNW. Traders are also noting that the basis around the PNW has clearly started to rise, while the basis in areas of Brazil have started to weaken. [Extracted from the article]

Soybean bulls see a trifecta of good news The USDA lowered ending stocks by -115 million bushels; rumors circulating that Chinese buyers stepped in and purchased at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans out of the Pacific Northwest; and talk from Washington that deputy-level meetings with the Chinese will happen next week. Global soybean ending stocks for 2019/20 are lowered from 101.7 down to 99.19 MMTs as reduced stocks for Argentina and the United States are partly offset by higher stocks for Brazil, Iran, and India. [Extracted from the article]

The USDA most recently estimated the yield at 48.5 bushels per acre and total U.S. production at 3.680 billion bushels. From what I heard yesterday, China FAS dropped their soy import estimate to 80 MMTs, the lowest in several years, which is -5 MMTS below the current USDA estimate. As I've been saying for months, once South American supplies are more limited, Q4 of 2019 or perhaps Q1 of 2020 will hopefully offer a much better pricing window for cash soybean sales. [Extracted from the article]

Highlights from the article: Corn bulls continue to struggle as U.S. weather is abnormally cooperative for late-July into early-August. We are deep into the "Dog Days" of summer and I'm sitting here in Kansas City with 80-degree temps, good soil moisture profiles and a bit of rain forecast almost every day for the next week. The ancient Greeks noticed that in the summer months, Sirius rose and set with the Sun, and they theorized that it was the bright, glowing Dog Star that was adding extra heat to the Earth during this July to August time period.

Highlights from the article: Corn bulls a bit nervous to get back in the USDA batter box The USDA could reduce exports, further reduce corn used for ethanol, yet increase feed and residual. I'm thinking we could see a bullish USDA report tomorrow but am worried we could see some price pressure and headwind the next few weeks if weather improves.

Highlights from the article: B Corn b bulls are talking about a possible short squeeze in the frontend of the market, the JUL19 contract, which is challenging a 5-year high. As a spec, I'm staying long on the futures in the JUL19 contract and long options all through the backend of the market. If you are wanting to price cash bushels or needing to catch up sales, I still like the thought of selling the cash on the big up days and waiting to re-own with an option strategy of some sort on the down days.

Highlights from the article: The USDA lowered U.S. planted acres by 3 million to 89.8 million. Globally, the USDA adjusted Argentina corn production higher on increased acreage.

Highlights from the article: Corn bulls have taken a step back as trade with Mexico comes into question. I'm telling you now, if you've been trading or have been heavily vested in the corn market, it's going to be hard to psychologically shake the past seven years of deteriorating prices.

Highlights from the article: Bulls argue there's still way too much moisture in the soil and rain in the forecast for many important U.S. production areas. I'm worried that a small move higher, while the bears are catching their breath, could entice smaller spec buying. The funds might use that rally or strength as an opportunity to add more length to their record short position.