25 results on '"Truhetz, H."'
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2. Precipitation frequency in Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX ensembles from 0.44° to convection-permitting resolution: impact of model resolution and convection representation
- Author
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Ha, Minh T., Bastin, Sophie, Drobinski, Philippe, Fita, L., Polcher, J., Bock, O., Chiriaco, M., Belušić, D., Caillaud, C., Dobler, A., Fernandez, J., Goergen, K., Hodnebrog, Ø., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Lavin-Gullon, A., Lorenz, T., Milovac, J., Panitz, H.-J., Sobolowski, S., Truhetz, H., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.
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- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean
- Author
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Coppola, Erika, Sobolowski, Stefan, Pichelli, E., Raffaele, F., Ahrens, B., Anders, I., Ban, N., Bastin, S., Belda, M., Belusic, D., Caldas-Alvarez, A., Cardoso, R. M., Davolio, S., Dobler, A., Fernandez, J., Fita, L., Fumiere, Q., Giorgi, F., Goergen, K., Güttler, I., Halenka, T., Heinzeller, D., Hodnebrog, Ø., Jacob, D., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Kendon, E., Khodayar, S., Kunstmann, H., Knist, S., Lavín-Gullón, A., Lind, P., Lorenz, T., Maraun, D., Marelle, L., van Meijgaard, E., Milovac, J., Myhre, G., Panitz, H.-J., Piazza, M., Raffa, M., Raub, T., Rockel, B., Schär, C., Sieck, K., Soares, P. M. M., Somot, S., Srnec, L., Stocchi, P., Tölle, M. H., Truhetz, H., Vautard, R., de Vries, H., and Warrach-Sagi, K.
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- 2020
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4. The added value of the km-scale multimodel ensemble of the FPS-Convection to describe wind speed over the Alps
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Molina, María Ofelia, primary, Careto, JM, additional, Gutiérrez, C., additional, Sánchez, E., additional, Goergen, K., additional, Sobolowski, S., additional, Coppola, E., additional, Pichelli, E., additional, Ban, N., additional, Belusíc, D., additional, Short, C., additional, Caillaud, C., additional, Dobler, A., additional, Hodnebrog, Ø., additional, Kartsios, S., additional, Lenderink, G., additional, de Vries, H., additional, Göktürk, O., additional, Milovac, J., additional, Feldmann, H., additional, Truhetz, H., additional, Demory, ME., additional, Warrach-Sagi, K., additional, Keuler, K., additional, Adinolfi, M., additional, Raffa, M., additional, Tölle, M., additional, Sieck, K., additional, Bastin, S., additional, and Soares, PMM., additional
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- 2023
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5. Precipitation frequency in Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX ensembles from 0.44° to convection-permitting resolution: impact of model resolution and convection representation
- Author
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Ha, Minh T., primary, Bastin, Sophie, additional, Drobinski, Philippe, additional, Fita, L., additional, Polcher, J., additional, Bock, O., additional, Chiriaco, M., additional, Belušić, D., additional, Caillaud, C., additional, Dobler, A., additional, Fernandez, J., additional, Goergen, K., additional, Hodnebrog, Ø., additional, Kartsios, S., additional, Katragkou, E., additional, Lavin-Gullon, A., additional, Lorenz, T., additional, Milovac, J., additional, Panitz, H.-J., additional, Sobolowski, S., additional, Truhetz, H., additional, Warrach-Sagi, K., additional, and Wulfmeyer, V., additional
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- 2022
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6. Precipitation frequency in Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX ensembles from 0.44 degrees to convection-permitting resolution : impact of model resolution and convection representation
- Author
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Ha, Minh T., Bastin, Sophie, Drobinski, Philippe, Fita, L., Polcher, J., Bock, O., Chiriaco, M., Belušić, Danijel, Caillaud, C., Dobler, A., Fernandez, J., Goergen, K., Hodnebrog, O., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Lavin-Gullon, A., Lorenz, T., Milovac, J., Panitz, H. -j., Sobolowski, S., Truhetz, H., Warrach-Sagi, K., Wulfmeyer, V., Ha, Minh T., Bastin, Sophie, Drobinski, Philippe, Fita, L., Polcher, J., Bock, O., Chiriaco, M., Belušić, Danijel, Caillaud, C., Dobler, A., Fernandez, J., Goergen, K., Hodnebrog, O., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Lavin-Gullon, A., Lorenz, T., Milovac, J., Panitz, H. -j., Sobolowski, S., Truhetz, H., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.
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- 2022
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7. Data for: A severe landslide event in the Alpine foreland under possible future climate and land-use changes [Data set]
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Maraun, D., Knevels, R., Mishra, A.N., Truhetz, H., Bevacqua, Emanuele ; orcid:0000-0003-0472-5183, Proske, H., Zappa, G., Brenning, A., Petschko, H., Schaffer, A., Leopold, P., Puxley, B.L., Maraun, D., Knevels, R., Mishra, A.N., Truhetz, H., Bevacqua, Emanuele ; orcid:0000-0003-0472-5183, Proske, H., Zappa, G., Brenning, A., Petschko, H., Schaffer, A., Leopold, P., and Puxley, B.L.
- Abstract
Landslides are a major natural hazard, but uncertainties about their occurrence in a warmer climate are substantial. The relative role of rainfall, soil moisture, and land-use changes and the importance of climate change mitigation are not well understood. Here, we develop an event storyline approach to address these issues, considering an observed event in Austria with some 3000 landslides as a showcase. We simulate the event using a convection permitting regional climate model and a statistical landslide model at present and a range of plausible future climate and land use conditions. Depending on the changes of rainfall and soil moisture, the area affected during a 2009-type event could grow by 45% at 4 K global warming, although a slight reduction is also possible. Such growth could be reduced to less than 10% by limiting global warming according to the Paris agreement. Anticipated land-use changes towards a climate-resilient forest would fully compensate for such a limited increase in hazard.
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- 2022
8. A severe landslide event in the Alpine foreland under possible future climate and land-use changes
- Author
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Maraun, D., Knevels, R., Mishra, A.N., Truhetz, H., Bevacqua, Emanuele, Proske, H., Zappa, G., Brenning, A., Petschko, H., Schaffer, A., Leopold, P., Puxley, B.L., Maraun, D., Knevels, R., Mishra, A.N., Truhetz, H., Bevacqua, Emanuele, Proske, H., Zappa, G., Brenning, A., Petschko, H., Schaffer, A., Leopold, P., and Puxley, B.L.
- Abstract
Landslides are a major natural hazard, but uncertainties about their occurrence in a warmer climate are substantial. The relative role of rainfall, soil moisture, and land-use changes and the importance of climate change mitigation are not well understood. Here, we develop an event storyline approach to address these issues, considering an observed event in Austria with some 3000 landslides as a showcase. We simulate the event using a convection permitting regional climate model and a statistical landslide model at present and a range of plausible future climate and land use conditions. Depending on the changes of rainfall and soil moisture, the area affected during a 2009-type event could grow by 45% at 4 K global warming, although a slight reduction is also possible. Such growth could be reduced to less than 10% by limiting global warming according to the Paris agreement. Anticipated land-use changes towards a climate-resilient forest would fully compensate for such a limited increase in hazard.
- Published
- 2022
9. Precipitation Frequency in Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX Ensembles from 0.44° to Convection-Permitting Resolution: Impact of Model Resolution and Convection Representation
- Author
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Ha, Minh Truong, primary, Bastin, S., additional, Drobinski, P., additional, Fita, L., additional, Polcher, J., additional, Bock, O., additional, Chiriaco, M., additional, Belušić, D., additional, Caillaud, C., additional, Dobler, A., additional, Fernandez, J., additional, Goergen, K., additional, Hodnebrog, Ø., additional, Kartsios, S., additional, Katragkou, E., additional, Lavin-Gullon, A., additional, Lorenz, T., additional, Milovac, J., additional, Panitz, H.-J., additional, Sobolowski, S., additional, Truhetz, H., additional, Warrach-Sagi, K., additional, and Wulfmeyer, V., additional
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- 2022
- Full Text
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10. Parameterization-Induced Error Characteristics of MM5 and WRF Operated in Climate Mode over the Alpine Region : An Ensemble-Based Analysis
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Awan, Nauman K., Truhetz, H., and Gobiet, A.
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- 2011
11. Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations
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Prein, A. F., Gobiet, A., Suklitsch, M., Truhetz, H., Awan, N. K., Keuler, K., and Georgievski, G.
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- 2013
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12. A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean
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Croatian Science Foundation, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), European Commission, German Research Foundation, Austrian Science Fund, Research Council of Norway, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portugal), Department of Energy and Climate Change (UK), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (UK), Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (Czech Republic), Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), Coppola, Erika, Sobolowski, Stefan, Pichelli, E., Raffaele, F., Ahrens, B., Anders, I., Ban, Nikolina, Bastin, Sophie, Belda, Michael, Belusic, D., Caldas-Alvarez, A., Cardoso, Rita M., Davolio, S., Dobler, Andreas, Fernández, Jesús, Fita, L., Fumiere, Q., Giorgi, Filippo, Goergen, Klaus, Güttler, Ivan, Halenka, Tomáš, Heinzeller, D., Hodnebrog, Ø., Jacob, Daniela, Kartsios, Stergios, Katragkou, Eleni, Kendon, E., Khodayar, S., Kunstmann, H., Knist, S., Lavín, Alicia, Lind, P., Lorenz, Torge, Maraun, Douglas, Marelle, L., Meijgaard, E. van, Milovac, Josipa, Myhre, G., Panitz, H.-J., Piazza, M., Raffa, M., Raub, T., Rockel, B., Schär, C., Sieck, K., Soares, Pedro M. M., Somot, Samuel, Srnec, L., Stocchi, P., Tölle, M. H., Truhetz, H., Vautard, R., Vries, H. de, Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten, Croatian Science Foundation, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), European Commission, German Research Foundation, Austrian Science Fund, Research Council of Norway, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portugal), Department of Energy and Climate Change (UK), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (UK), Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (Czech Republic), Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), Coppola, Erika, Sobolowski, Stefan, Pichelli, E., Raffaele, F., Ahrens, B., Anders, I., Ban, Nikolina, Bastin, Sophie, Belda, Michael, Belusic, D., Caldas-Alvarez, A., Cardoso, Rita M., Davolio, S., Dobler, Andreas, Fernández, Jesús, Fita, L., Fumiere, Q., Giorgi, Filippo, Goergen, Klaus, Güttler, Ivan, Halenka, Tomáš, Heinzeller, D., Hodnebrog, Ø., Jacob, Daniela, Kartsios, Stergios, Katragkou, Eleni, Kendon, E., Khodayar, S., Kunstmann, H., Knist, S., Lavín, Alicia, Lind, P., Lorenz, Torge, Maraun, Douglas, Marelle, L., Meijgaard, E. van, Milovac, Josipa, Myhre, G., Panitz, H.-J., Piazza, M., Raffa, M., Raub, T., Rockel, B., Schär, C., Sieck, K., Soares, Pedro M. M., Somot, Samuel, Srnec, L., Stocchi, P., Tölle, M. H., Truhetz, H., Vautard, R., Vries, H. de, and Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten
- Abstract
A recently launched project under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments Flagship Pilot Studies program (CORDEX-FPS) is presented. This initiative aims to build first-of-its-kind ensemble climate experiments of convection permitting models to investigate present and future convective processes and related extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean. In this manuscript the rationale, scientific aims and approaches are presented along with some preliminary results from the testing phase of the project. Three test cases were selected in order to obtain a first look at the ensemble performance. The test cases covered a summertime extreme precipitation event over Austria, a fall Foehn event over the Swiss Alps and an intensively documented fall event along the Mediterranean coast. The test cases were run in both “weather-like” (WL, initialized just before the event in question) and “climate” (CM, initialized 1 month before the event) modes. Ensembles of 18–21 members, representing six different modeling systems with different physics and modelling chain options, was generated for the test cases (27 modeling teams have committed to perform the longer climate simulations). Results indicate that, when run in WL mode, the ensemble captures all three events quite well with ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.67, 0.82 and 0.91. They suggest that the more the event is driven by large-scale conditions, the closer the agreement between the ensemble members. Even in climate mode the large-scale driven events over the Swiss Alps and the Mediterranean coasts are still captured (ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.90 and 0.62, respectively), but the inter-model spread increases as expected. In the case over Mediterranean the effects of local-scale interactions between flow and orography and land–ocean contrasts are readily apparent. However, there is a much larger, though not surprising, increase in the spread for
- Published
- 2020
13. A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean
- Author
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Coppola, Erika, primary, Sobolowski, Stefan, additional, Pichelli, E., additional, Raffaele, F., additional, Ahrens, B., additional, Anders, I., additional, Ban, N., additional, Bastin, S., additional, Belda, M., additional, Belusic, D., additional, Caldas-Alvarez, A., additional, Cardoso, R. M., additional, Davolio, S., additional, Dobler, A., additional, Fernandez, J., additional, Fita, L., additional, Fumiere, Q., additional, Giorgi, F., additional, Goergen, K., additional, Güttler, I., additional, Halenka, T., additional, Heinzeller, D., additional, Hodnebrog, Ø., additional, Jacob, D., additional, Kartsios, S., additional, Katragkou, E., additional, Kendon, E., additional, Khodayar, S., additional, Kunstmann, H., additional, Knist, S., additional, Lavín-Gullón, A., additional, Lind, P., additional, Lorenz, T., additional, Maraun, D., additional, Marelle, L., additional, van Meijgaard, E., additional, Milovac, J., additional, Myhre, G., additional, Panitz, H.-J., additional, Piazza, M., additional, Raffa, M., additional, Raub, T., additional, Rockel, B., additional, Schär, C., additional, Sieck, K., additional, Soares, P. M. M., additional, Somot, S., additional, Srnec, L., additional, Stocchi, P., additional, Tölle, M. H., additional, Truhetz, H., additional, Vautard, R., additional, de Vries, H., additional, and Warrach-Sagi, K., additional
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- 2018
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14. Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX 0.11∘0.11∘ and 0.44∘0.44∘ simulations: high resolution, high benefits?
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Prein, A., Gobiet, A., Truhetz, H., Keuler, K., Goergen, K., Teichmann, C., Fox Maule, C., Van Meijgaard, E., Déqué, M., Nikulin, G., Vautard, R., Colette, A., Kjellström, E., Jacob, D., National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Brandenburg University of Technology [Cottbus – Senftenberg] (BTU), University of Bonn, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Laboratoire Kastler Brossel (LKB (Jussieu)), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Fédération de recherche du Département de physique de l'Ecole Normale Supérieure - ENS Paris (FRDPENS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universität Bonn = University of Bonn, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Fédération de recherche du Département de physique de l'Ecole Normale Supérieure - ENS Paris (FRDPENS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere ,[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS - Abstract
International audience
- Published
- 2016
15. Error characteristics of high resolution regional climate models over the Alpine area
- Author
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Suklitsch, M., Gobiet, A., Truhetz, H., Awan, N., Goettel, H., and Jacob, D.
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Atmospheric Science ,Percentile ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,0207 environmental engineering ,Orography ,Scale (descriptive set theory) ,02 engineering and technology ,15. Life on land ,Atmospheric temperature ,01 natural sciences ,13. Climate action ,Climatology ,Hindcast ,Environmental science ,Climate model ,Precipitation ,020701 environmental engineering ,Sea level ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
This study describes typical error ranges of high resolution regional climate models operated over complex orography and investigates the scale-dependence of these error ranges. The results are valid primarily for the European Alpine region, but to some extent they can also be transferred to other orographically complex regions of the world. We investigate the model errors by evaluating a set of 62 one-year hindcast experiments for the year 1999 with four different regional climate models. The analysis is conducted for the parameters mean sea level pressure, air temperature (mean, minimum and maximum) and precipitation (mean, frequency and intensity), both as an area average over the whole modeled domain (the “Greater Alpine Region”, GAR) and in six subregions. The subregional seasonal error ranges, defined as the interval between the 2.5th percentile and the 97.5th percentile, lie between −3.2 and +2.0 K for temperature and between −2.0 and +3.1 mm/day (−45.7 and +94.7%) for precipitation, respectively. While the temperature error ranges are hardly broadened at smaller scales, the precipitation error ranges increase by 28%. These results demonstrate that high resolution RCMs are applicable in relatively small scale climate impact studies with a comparable quality as on well investigated larger scales as far as temperature is concerned. For precipitation, which is a much more demanding parameter, the quality is moderately degraded on smaller scales.
- Published
- 2010
16. Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX $$0.11^{\circ }$$ 0 . 11 ∘ and $$0.44^{\circ }$$ 0 . 44 ∘ simulations: high resolution, high benefits?
- Author
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Prein, A. F., primary, Gobiet, A., additional, Truhetz, H., additional, Keuler, K., additional, Goergen, K., additional, Teichmann, C., additional, Fox Maule, C., additional, van Meijgaard, E., additional, Déqué, M., additional, Nikulin, G., additional, Vautard, R., additional, Colette, A., additional, Kjellström, E., additional, and Jacob, D., additional
- Published
- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
17. Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX $$0.11^{\circ }$$ and $$0.44^{\circ }$$ simulations: high resolution, high benefits?
- Author
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Prein, A., Gobiet, A., Truhetz, H., Keuler, K., Goergen, K., Teichmann, C., Fox Maule, C., Meijgaard, E., Déqué, M., Nikulin, G., Vautard, R., Colette, A., Kjellström, E., and Jacob, D.
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METEOROLOGICAL precipitation ,COMPUTER simulation ,ATMOSPHERIC models ,MOUNTAINS ,METEOROLOGICAL observations - Abstract
In the framework of the EURO-CORDEX initiative an ensemble of European-wide high-resolution regional climate simulations on a $$0.11^{\circ }\,({\sim}12.5\,\hbox {km})$$ grid has been generated. This study investigates whether the fine-gridded regional climate models are found to add value to the simulated mean and extreme daily and sub-daily precipitation compared to their coarser-gridded $$0.44^{\circ }\,({\sim}50\,\hbox {km})$$ counterparts. Therefore, pairs of fine- and coarse-gridded simulations of eight reanalysis-driven models are compared to fine-gridded observations in the Alps, Germany, Sweden, Norway, France, the Carpathians, and Spain. A clear result is that the $$0.11^{\circ }$$ simulations are found to better reproduce mean and extreme precipitation for almost all regions and seasons, even on the scale of the coarser-gridded simulations (50 km). This is primarily caused by the improved representation of orography in the $$0.11^{\circ }$$ simulations and therefore largest improvements can be found in regions with substantial orographic features. Improvements in reproducing precipitation in the summer season appear also due to the fact that in the fine-gridded simulations the larger scales of convection are captured by the resolved-scale dynamics . The $$0.11^{\circ }$$ simulations reduce biases in large areas of the investigated regions, have an improved representation of spatial precipitation patterns, and precipitation distributions are improved for daily and in particular for 3 hourly precipitation sums in Switzerland. When the evaluation is conducted on the fine (12.5 km) grid, the added value of the $$0.11^{\circ }$$ models becomes even more obvious. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
18. Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX $$0.11^{\circ }$$ 0 . 11 ∘ and $$0.44^{\circ }$$ 0 . 44 ∘ simulations: high resolution, high benefits?
- Author
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Prein, A. F., Gobiet, A., Truhetz, H., Keuler, K., Goergen, K., Teichmann, C., Fox Maule, C., van Meijgaard, E., Déqué, M., Nikulin, G., Vautard, R., Colette, A., Kjellström, E., and Jacob, D.
- Subjects
Atmospheric Science - Full Text
- View/download PDF
19. The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation
- Author
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Ban, N., Caillaud, C., Coppola, E., Pichelli, E., Sobolowski, S., Adinolfi, M., Ahrens, B., Alias, A., Anders, I., Bastin, S., Belu��i��, D., Berthou, S., Brisson, E., Cardoso, R. M., Chan, S. C., Christensen, O. B., Fern��ndez, J., Fita, L., Frisius, T., Ga��parac, G., Giorgi, F., Goergen, K., Haugen, J. E., Hodnebrog, ��., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Kendon, E. J., Keuler, K., Lavin-Gullon, A., Lenderink, G., Leutwyler, D., Lorenz, T., Maraun, D., Mercogliano, P., Milovac, J., Panitz, H.-J., Raffa, M., Remedio, A. R., Sch��r, C., Soares, P. M. M., Srnec, L., Steensen, B. M., Stocchi, P., T��lle, M. H., Truhetz, H., Vergara-Temprado, J., Vries, H. De, Warrach-Sagi, K., Wulfmeyer, V., and Zander, M. J.
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Kilometer-scale resolution ,13. Climate action ,Multi-model ensemble simulations ,Precipitation ,Regional climate models - Abstract
Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of ���3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution (��� 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from ��� ���40% at 12 km to ��� ���3% at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales.
20. Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community
- Author
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Jacob, Daniela, Teichmann, Claas, Sobolowski, Stefan, Katragkou, Eleni, Anders, Ivonne, Belda, Michal, Benestad, Rasmus, Boberg, Fredrik, Buonomo, Erasmo, Cardoso, Rita M., Casanueva, Ana, Christensen, Ole B., Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Coppola, Erika, De Cruz, Lesley, Davin, Edouard L., Dobler, Andreas, Domínguez, Marta, Fealy, Rowan, Fernandez, Jesus, Gaertner, Miguel Angel, García-Díez, Markel, Giorgi, Filippo, Gobiet, Andreas, Goergen, Klaus, Gómez-Navarro, Juan José, Alemán, Juan Jesús González, Gutiérrez, Claudia, Gutiérrez, José M., Güttler, Ivan, Haensler, Andreas, Halenka, Tomáš, Jerez, Sonia, Jiménez-Guerrero, Pedro, Jones, Richard G., Keuler, Klaus, Kjellström, Erik, Knist, Sebastian, Kotlarski, Sven, Maraun, Douglas, van Meijgaard, Erik, Mercogliano, Paola, Montávez, Juan Pedro, Navarra, Antonio, Nikulin, Grigory, de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie, Panitz, Hans-Juergen, Pfeifer, Susanne, Piazza, Marie, Pichelli, Emanuela, Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka, Prein, Andreas F., Preuschmann, Swantje, Rechid, Diana, Rockel, Burkhardt, Romera, Raquel, Sánchez, Enrique, Sieck, Kevin, Soares, Pedro M. M., Somot, Samuel, Srnec, Lidija, Sørland, Silje Lund, Termonia, Piet, Truhetz, Heimo, Vautard, Robert, Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten, Wulfmeyer, Volker, Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Hamburg, Germany, NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, The Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece, Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Vienna, Austria, Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic, The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Copenhagen, Denmark, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal, Meteorology Group, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark, International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy, Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMIB), Brussels, Belgium, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, Madrid, Spain, ICARUS, Department of Geography, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain, Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich, Germany, Regional Atmospheric Modeling Group, Department of Physics, University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain, Meteorology Group, Instituto de Física de Cantabria (CSIC-Universidad de Cantabria), Santander, Spain, Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK, Chair of Atmospheric Processes, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus - Senftenberg, Cottbus, Germany, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden, Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich-Airport, Switzerland, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands, C.I.R.A., Capua, Italy, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce, Italy, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, Unité Mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Helsinki, Finland, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany, CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium, Institute of Physics and Meteorology, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany, Jacob D., Teichmann C., Sobolowski S., Katragkou E., Anders I., Belda M., Benestad R., Boberg F., Buonomo E., Cardoso R.M., Casanueva A., Christensen O.B., Christensen J.H., Coppola E., De Cruz L., Davin E.L., Dobler A., Dominguez M., Fealy R., Fernandez J., Gaertner M.A., Garcia-Diez M., Giorgi F., Gobiet A., Goergen K., Gomez-Navarro J.J., Aleman J.J.G., Gutierrez C., Gutierrez J.M., Guttler I., Haensler A., Halenka T., Jerez S., Jimenez-Guerrero P., Jones R.G., Keuler K., Kjellstrom E., Knist S., Kotlarski S., Maraun D., van Meijgaard E., Mercogliano P., Montavez J.P., Navarra A., Nikulin G., de Noblet-Ducoudre N., Panitz H.-J., Pfeifer S., Piazza M., Pichelli E., Pietikainen J.-P., Prein A.F., Preuschmann S., Rechid D., Rockel B., Romera R., Sanchez E., Sieck K., Soares P.M.M., Somot S., Srnec L., Sorland S.L., Termonia P., Truhetz H., Vautard R., Warrach-Sagi K., Wulfmeyer V., Electronics and Informatics, Physics, Universidad de Cantabria, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), CSIC-UC - Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA), Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), and European Commission
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IMPACTS ,Climate Research ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,0208 environmental biotechnology ,Climate change ,ENSEMBLE ,02 engineering and technology ,Land cover ,01 natural sciences ,Klimatforskning ,COVER CHANGES ,11. Sustainability ,ddc:330 ,Regional science ,Adaptation (computer science) ,Temporal scales ,TEMPERATURE ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,MODEL DESCRIPTION ,Global and Planetary Change ,regional climate models, EURO-CORDEX ,Land use ,LAND-USE ,FUTURE CHANGES ,15. Life on land ,SIMULATIONS ,020801 environmental engineering ,Earth system science ,CORDEX ,Geography ,ddc:551.6 ,13. Climate action ,Earth and Environmental Sciences ,MED-CORDEX ,EURO-CORDEX ,DAILY PRECIPITATION STATISTICS ,Downscaling ,Regional climate modelling ,Regional climate models - Abstract
The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11° EUR-11 and 0.44° EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empirical-statistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe., S.S. acknowledges the support of NOTUR/NORSTORE projects NN9280K/NS9001K and the Research Council of Norway and its basic institute support of the strategic project on Climate Services. E.K. acknowledges the support of the Greek Research & Technology Network (GRNET) for provision of technical support and facilities (HPC-ARIS). L.S. and I.G. acknowledge the support of Croatian Science Foundation project CARE (2831) and Ministry of Environment and Energy project TF/HR/P3-M1-O1-0101 (www.prilagodba-klimi.hr). J. F. acknowledges support from the Spanish R+D Programme through grant INSIGNIA (CGL2016-79210-R), co-funded by ERDF/FEDER, and the Altamira Supercomputer at Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA-CSIC), member of the Spanish Supercomputing Network. P.T. acknowledges support from the Belgian Science Policy (BELSPO) within the CORDEX.be (BR/143/A2) project, and the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Center), funded by the Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish Government – department EWI.M.A.G. acknowledges support from the Spanish R+D Programme through grants CGL2013-47261-R and CGL2017-89583-R, co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. RF acknowledges support provided by ICHEC (Irish Centre for High End Computing) and the Irish Environmental Protection Agency. K.G. and S.K. gratefully acknowledge the computing time granted through JARA-HPC on the supercomputers JUROPA and JURECA at Forschungszentrum Jülich. M.B. and T.H. acknowledge support by The Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports from the Large Infrastructures for Research, Experimental Development and Innovations project “IT4Innovations National Supercomputing Center – LM2015070” and the INTER-EXCELLENCE program LTT17007, and support by Charles University from the PROGRES Q16 program. We acknowledge the approval and support of the two Flagship Pilot Studies (the FPS on Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean and the FPS on Land Use and Climate Across Scales) by WRCP CORDEX. We thank Merja Tölle for providing simulation CCLM5-0-9-JLU as contribution to the CORDEX-FPS “Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean”. D. M., M.P., and H.T. gratefully acknowledge the support received via the projects HighEnd:Extremes, SPIRIT, and reclip:convex, funded by the Austrian Climate Research Programme (ACRP) of the Klima- und Energiefonds (nos. B368608, B960272, and B769999, respectively), as well as the Jülich Supercomputing Centre (JSC) for compute time on JURECA through the grant JJSC39 and the Vienna Scientific Cluster (VSC) through the grants 70992 and 71193.
- Published
- 2020
21. Soil moisture precipitation feedbacks in the Eastern European Alpine region in convection-permitting climate simulations.
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Truhetz H and Mishra AN
- Abstract
A novel convection permitting modelling framework that combines a pseudo-global warming approach with continuously forced deep soil moisture from prescribed perturbation storylines is applied in the Eastern European Alpine region and parts of the Pannonian Basin to investigate soil moisture precipitation (SMP) feedbacks on summertime precipitation and the feedbacks' role under changed climate conditions. A set of 1-year convection-permitting (3 km horizontal grid spacing) soil moisture sensitivity simulations with the regional climate model of the Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling in Climate Mode are conducted. In order to account for global warming, end-of-the-century climate change effects from four global climate models, projecting the greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP 8.5, are imprinted. The simulations reveal that (1) the locations of precipitation events are highly sensitive to soil moisture modifications while intensities and the internal structure of precipitation events are nearly unaffected and (2) high precipitation intensities are more likely in combinations with positive temporal but distinctive (either strong positive or strong negative) spatial SMP coupling. Low precipitation intensities are in favour of combinations of negative temporal and positive spatial coupling. The analyses suggest that soil moisture at a given time acts as a guiding field for the location of the next precipitation event. Interestingly, this behaviour is independent of climate change, although the coupling strength's increase is 1.5-1.7 times larger than expected from linear climate change scaling when climate becomes 50% dryer. Finally, it is found that (1) local deviations in the climate change signal of summertime precipitation in the range of up to ±40% are caused by uncertainty in deep soil moisture in the range of ±10% and (2) these local deviations in the climate change signal are dominated by soil moisture uncertainty in future climate conditions., (© 2023 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society.)
- Published
- 2023
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22. Climate change amplified the 2009 extreme landslide event in Austria.
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Mishra AN, Maraun D, Knevels R, Truhetz H, Brenning A, and Proske H
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Landslides are an important natural hazard in mountainous regions. Given the triggering and preconditioning by meteorological conditions, it is known that landslide risk may change in a warming climate, but whether climate change has already affected individual landslide events is still an open question, partly owing to landslide data limitations and methodological challenges in climate impact attribution. Here, we demonstrate the substantial influence of anthropogenic climate change on a severe event in the southeastern Alpine forelands with some estimated 952 individual landslides in June 2009. Our study is based on conditional event attribution complemented by an assessment of changes in atmospheric circulation. Using this approach, we simulate the meteorological event under observed and a range of counterfactual conditions of no climate change and explicitly predict the landslide occurrence probability for these conditions. We find that up to 10%, i.e., 95 landslides, can be attributed to climate change., Competing Interests: Competing InterestsThe authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2023.)
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- 2023
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23. Climate projections for glacier change modelling over the Himalayas.
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Jury MW, Mendlik T, Tani S, Truhetz H, Maraun D, Immerzeel WW, and Lutz AF
- Abstract
Glaciers are of key importance to freshwater supplies in the Himalayan region. Their growth or decline is among other factors determined by an interaction of 2-m air temperature (TAS) and precipitation rate (PR) and thereof derived positive degree days (PDD) and snow and ice accumulation (SAC). To investigate determining factors in climate projections, we use a model ensemble consisting of 36 CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) and 13 regional climate models (RCMs) of two Asian CORDEX domains for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, we downsize the ensemble in respect to the models' ability to correctly reproduce dominant circulation patterns (i.e., the Indian summer monsoon [ISM] and western disturbances [WDs]) as well as elevation-dependent trend signals in winter. Within this evaluation, a newly produced data set for the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra catchments is used as observational data. The reanalyses WFDEI, ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR and JRA-55 are used to further account for observational uncertainty. In a next step, remaining TAS and PR data are bias corrected applying a new bias adjustment method, scale distribution mapping, and subsequently PDD and SAC computed. Finally, we identify and quantify projected climate change effects. Until the end of the century, the ensemble indicates a rise of PDD, especially during summer and for lower altitudes. Also TAS is rising, though the highest increases are shown for higher altitudes and between December and April (DJFMA). PRs connected to the ISM are projected to robustly increase, while signals for PR changes during DJFMA show a higher level of uncertainty and spatial heterogeneity. However, a robust decline in solid precipitation is projected over our research domain, with the exception of a small area in the high mountain Indus catchment where no clear signal emerges., (© 2019 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.)
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- 2020
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24. Spring frost risk for regional apple production under a warmer climate.
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Unterberger C, Brunner L, Nabernegg S, Steininger KW, Steiner AK, Stabentheiner E, Monschein S, and Truhetz H
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- Acclimatization, Austria, Flowers, Forecasting, Risk, Climate, Crop Production economics, Freezing, Malus physiology, Models, Theoretical
- Abstract
Spring frosts, as experienced in Europe in April 2016 and 2017, pose a considerable risk to agricultural production, with the potential to cause significant damages to agricultural yields. Meteorological blocking events (stable high-pressure systems) have been shown to be one of the factors that trigger cold spells in spring. While current knowledge does not allow for drawing conclusions as to any change in future frequency and duration of blocking episodes due to climate change, the combination of their stable occurrence with the biological system under a warming trend can lead to economic damage increases. To evaluate future frost risk for apple producers in south-eastern Styria, we combine a phenological sequential model with highly resolved climate projections for Austria. Our model projects a mean advance of blooming of -1.6 ± 0.9 days per decade, shifting the bloom onset towards early April by the end of the 21st century. Our findings indicate that overall frost risk for apple cultures will remain in a warmer climate and potentially even increase due to a stronger connection between blocking and cold spells in early spring that can be identified from observational data. To prospectively deal with frost risk, measures are needed that either stabilize crop yields or ensure farmers' income by other means. We identify appropriate adaptation measures and relate their costs to the potential frost risk increase. Even if applied successfully, the costs of these measures in combination with future residual damages represent additional climate change related costs., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
- Published
- 2018
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25. Modelling seasonal effects of temperature and precipitation on honey bee winter mortality in a temperate climate.
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Switanek M, Crailsheim K, Truhetz H, and Brodschneider R
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- Animals, Austria, Climate, Pesticides, Pollination, Seasons, Temperature, Weather, Bees physiology, Environmental Monitoring, Models, Statistical
- Abstract
Insect pollinators are essential to global food production. For this reason, it is alarming that honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations across the world have recently seen increased rates of mortality. These changes in colony mortality are often ascribed to one or more factors including parasites, diseases, pesticides, nutrition, habitat dynamics, weather and/or climate. However, the effect of climate on colony mortality has never been demonstrated. Therefore, in this study, we focus on longer-term weather conditions and/or climate's influence on honey bee winter mortality rates across Austria. Statistical correlations between monthly climate variables and winter mortality rates were investigated. Our results indicate that warmer and drier weather conditions in the preceding year were accompanied by increased winter mortality. We subsequently built a statistical model to predict colony mortality using temperature and precipitation data as predictors. Our model reduces the mean absolute error between predicted and observed colony mortalities by 9% and is statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. This is the first study to show clear evidence of a link between climate variability and honey bee winter mortality., (Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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