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BackgroundThe optimal interval for repeat biopsy during active surveillance (AS) for prostate cancer is yet to be defined. This study examined whether risk of upgrading (to grade group ≥ 2) or risk of converting to treatment varied according to intensity of repeat biopsy using data from the GAP3 consortium's global AS database.Materials and methodsIntensity of surveillance biopsy schedules was categorized according to centers' protocols: (a) Prostate Cancer Research International Active Surveillance project (PRIAS) protocols with biopsies at years 1, 4, and 7 (10 centers; 7532 men); (b) biennial biopsies, that is, every other year (8 centers; 4365 men); and (c) annual biopsy schedules (4 centers; 1602 men). Multivariable Cox regression was used to compare outcomes according to biopsy intensity.ResultsOut of the 13,508 eligible participants, 56% were managed according to PRIAS protocols (biopsies at years 1, 4, and 7), 32% via biennial biopsy, and 12% via annual biopsy. After adjusting for baseline characteristics, risk of converting to treatment was greater for those on annual compared with PRIAS biopsy schedules (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.51-1.83; p

BackgroundActive surveillance (AS) is a management option for men diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer. Opinions differ on whether it is safe to include young men (≤60 yr) or men with intermediate-risk disease.ObjectiveTo assess whether reasons for discontinuation, treatment choice after AS, and adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy (RP; N1, or ≥GG3, or ≥pT3) differ for men ≤60 yr or those with European Association of Urology (EAU) intermediate-risk disease from those for men >60 yr or those with EAU low-risk disease.Design setting and participantsWe analyzed data from 5411 men ≤60 yr and 14 959 men >60 yr, 14 064 men with low-risk cancer, and 2441 men with intermediate-risk cancer, originating from the GAP3 database (21 169 patients/27 cohorts worldwide).Outcome measurements and statistical analysisCumulative incidence curves were used to estimate the rates of AS discontinuation and treatment choice.Results and limitationsThe probability of discontinuation of AS due to disease progression at 5 yr was similar for men aged ≤60 yr (22%) and those >60 yr (25%), as well as those of any age with low-risk disease (24%) versus those with intermediate-risk disease (24%). Men with intermediate-risk disease are more prone to discontinue AS without evidence of progression than men with low-risk disease (at 1/5 yr: 5.9%/14.2% vs 2.0%/8.8%). Adverse pathology at RP was observed in 32% of men ≤60 yr compared with 36% of men >60 yr (p = 0.029), and in 34% with low-risk disease compared with 40% with intermediate-risk disease (p = 0.048).ConclusionsOur descriptive analysis of AS practices worldwide showed that the risk of progression during AS is similar across the age and risk groups studied. The proportion of adverse pathology was higher among men >60 yr than among men ≤60 yr. These results suggest that men ≤60 yr and those with EAU intermediate-risk disease should not be excluded from opting for AS as initial management.Patient summaryData from 27 international centers reflecting daily clinical practice suggest that younger men or men with intermediate-risk prostate cancer do not hold greater risk for disease progression during active surveillance.

To develop and validate a new tissue-based biomarker that improves prediction of outcomes in localized prostate cancer by quantifying the host response to tumor. We use digital image analysis and machine learning to develop a biomarker of the prostate stroma called quantitative reactive stroma (qRS). qRS is a measure of percentage tumor area with a distinct, reactive stromal architecture. Kaplan Meier analysis was used to determine survival in a large retrospective cohort of radical prostatectomy samples. qRS was validated in two additional, distinct cohorts that include international cases and tissue from both radical prostatectomy and biopsy specimens. In the developmental cohort (Baylor College of Medicine, n = 482), patients whose tumor had qRS > 34% had increased risk of prostate cancer-specific death (HR 2.94; p = 0.039). This result was replicated in two validation cohorts, where patients with qRS > 34% had increased risk of prostate cancer-specific death (MEDVAMC; n = 332; HR 2.64; p = 0.02) and also biochemical recurrence (Canary; n = 988; HR 1.51; p = 0.001). By multivariate analysis, these associations were shown to hold independent predictive value when compared to currently used clinicopathologic factors including Gleason score and PSA. qRS is a new, validated biomarker that predicts prostate cancer death and biochemical recurrence across three distinct cohorts. It measures host-response rather than tumor-based characteristics, and provides information not represented by standard prognostic measurements.

BackgroundThe inclusion criterion for active surveillance (AS) is low- or intermediate-risk prostate cancer. The predictive value of the presence of a suspicious lesion at magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at the time of inclusion is insufficiently known.ObjectiveTo evaluate the percentage of patients needing active treatment stratified by the presence or absence of a suspicious lesion at baseline MRI.Design setting and participantsA retrospective analysis of the data from the multicentric AS GAP3 Consortium database was conducted. The inclusion criteria were men with grade group (GG) 1 or GG 2 prostate cancer combined with prostate-specific antigen

ImportanceProstate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) can detect low-volume, nonlocalized (ie, regional or metastatic) prostate cancer that was occult on conventional imaging. However, the long-term clinical implications of PSMA PET/CT upstaging remain unclear.ObjectivesTo evaluate the prognostic significance of a nomogram that models an individual's risk of nonlocalized upstaging on PSMA PET/CT and to compare its performance with existing risk-stratification tools.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study included patients diagnosed with high-risk or very high-risk prostate cancer (ie, prostate-specific antigen [PSA] level >20 ng/mL, Gleason score 8-10, and/or clinical stage T3-T4, without evidence of nodal or metastatic disease by conventional workup) from April 1995 to August 2018. This multinational study was conducted at 15 centers. Data were analyzed from December 2020 to March 2021.ExposuresCurative-intent radical prostatectomy (RP), external beam radiotherapy (EBRT), or EBRT plus brachytherapy (BT), with or without androgen deprivation therapy.Main outcomes and measuresPSMA upstage probability was calculated from a nomogram using the biopsy Gleason score, percentage positive systematic biopsy cores, clinical T category, and PSA level. Biochemical recurrence (BCR), distant metastasis (DM), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), and overall survival (OS) were analyzed using Fine-Gray and Cox regressions. Model performance was quantified with the concordance (C) index.ResultsOf 5275 patients, the median (IQR) age was 66 (60-72) years; 2883 (55%) were treated with RP, 1669 (32%) with EBRT, and 723 (14%) with EBRT plus BT; median (IQR) PSA level was 10.5 (5.9-23.2) ng/mL; 3987 (76%) had Gleason grade 8 to 10 disease; and 750 (14%) had stage T3 to T4 disease. Median (IQR) follow-up was 5.1 (3.1-7.9) years; 1221 (23%) were followed up for at least 8 years. Overall, 1895 (36%) had BCR, 851 (16%) developed DM, and 242 (5%) died of prostate cancer. PSMA upstage probability was significantly prognostic of all clinical end points, with 8-year C indices of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.61-0.65) for BCR, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.71) for DM, 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67-0.75) for PCSM, and 0.60 (95% CI, 0.57-0.62) for PCSM (P

BackgroundStudies of active surveillance (AS) for prostate cancer (PCa) have focussed predominantly on Caucasian populations. Little is known about the experience of Asian men, while suitability for men of African descent has been questioned.ObjectiveTo compare baseline characteristics, follow-up, and outcomes for men on AS for PCa, according to ethnicity.Design setting and participantsThe study cohort included 13 centres from the GAP3 consortium that record ethnicity (categorised broadly as Caucasian/white, African/Afro-Caribbean/black, Asian, mixed/other, and unknown). Men with biopsy grade group >2, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) >20 ng/ml, T stage ≥cT3, or age >80 yr were excluded.Outcome measurements and statistical analysisClinical characteristics, follow-up schedules, outcome status, and reasons for discontinuation were compared across ethnic groups. Risk of upgrading, potential disease progression (grade group ≥3 or T stage ≥3), suspicious indications (any upgrading, number of positive cores >3, T stage ≥cT3, PSA >20 ng/ml, or PSA density >0.2 ng/ml/cc2), and conversion to treatment were assessed using mixed-effect regression models.Results and limitationsThe eligible cohort (n = 9158) comprised 83% Caucasian men, 6% men of African descent, 5% Asian men, 2% men of mixed/other ethnicity, and 4% men of unknown ethnicity. Risks of suspicious indicators (hazard ratio = 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-1.45), upgrading (odds ratio [OR] = 1.40; 95% CI 1.14-1.71), and potential progression (OR = 1.46; 95% CI 1.06-2.01) were higher among African/black than among Caucasian/white men. Risk of transitioning to treatment did not differ by ethnicity. More Asian than Caucasian men converted without progression (42% vs 26%, p < 0.001). Heterogeneity in surveillance protocols and racial makeup limit interpretation.ConclusionsThis multinational study found differences in the risk of disease progression and transitioning to treatment without signs of progression between ethnic groups. Further research is required to determine whether differences are due to biology, sociocultural factors, and/or clinical practice.Patient summaryThis international study compared prostate cancer active surveillance outcomes by ethnicity. Risks of upgrading and disease progression were higher among African than among Caucasian men. Transitioning to treatment without progression was highest among Asian men. Understanding of these differences requires further investigation.

BackgroundProstate cancer exhibits biological and clinical heterogeneity even within established clinico-pathologic risk groups. The Decipher genomic classifier (GC) is a validated method to further risk-stratify disease in patients with prostate cancer, but its performance solely within National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) high-risk disease has not been undertaken to date.MethodsA multi-institutional retrospective study of 405 men with high-risk prostate cancer who underwent primary treatment with radical prostatectomy (RP) or radiation therapy (RT) with androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) at 11 centers from 1995 to 2005 was performed. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the hazard ratios (HR) for the development of metastatic disease based on clinico-pathologic variables, risk groups, and GC score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was determined for regression models without and with the GC score.ResultsOver a median follow-up of 82 months, 104 patients (26%) developed metastatic disease. On univariable analysis, increasing GC score was significantly associated with metastatic disease ([HR]: 1.34 per 0.1 unit increase, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-1.50, p  0.05). On multivariable analysis, GC score (HR: 1.33 per 0.1 unit increase, 95% CI: 1.19-1.48, p

BackgroundActive surveillance (AS) is an accepted means of managing low-risk prostate cancer. Because of the rarity of downstream events, data from existing AS cohorts cannot yet address how differences in surveillance intensity affect metastasis and mortality. This study projected the comparative benefits of different AS schedules in men diagnosed with prostate cancer who had Gleason score (GS) ≤6 disease and risk profiles similar to those in North American AS cohorts.MethodsTimes of GS upgrading were simulated based on AS data from the University of Toronto, Johns Hopkins University, the University of California at San Francisco, and the Canary Pass Active Surveillance Cohort. Times to metastasis and prostate cancer death, informed by models from the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group 4 trial, were projected under biopsy surveillance schedules ranging from watchful waiting to annual biopsies. Outcomes included the risk of metastasis, the risk of death, remaining life-years (LYs), and quality-adjusted LYs.ResultsCompared with watchful waiting, AS biopsies reduced the risk of prostate cancer metastasis and prostate cancer death at 20 years by 1.4% to 3.3% and 1.0% to 2.4%, respectively; and 5-year biopsies reduced the risk of metastasis and prostate cancer death by 1.0% to 2.4% and 0.6% to 1.6%, respectively. There was little difference between annual and 5-year biopsy schedules in terms of LYs (range of differences, 0.04-0.16 LYs) and quality-adjusted LYs (range of differences, -0.02 to 0.09 quality-adjusted LYs).ConclusionsAmong men diagnosed with GS ≤6 prostate cancer, obtaining a biopsy every 3 or 4 years appears to be an acceptable alternative to more frequent biopsies. Reducing surveillance intensity for those who have a low risk of progression reduces the number of biopsies while preserving the benefit of more frequent schedules.

BackgroundCareful assessment of the reasons for discontinuation of active surveillance (AS) is required for men with prostate cancer (PCa).ObjectiveUsing Movember's Global Action Plan Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance initiative (GAP3) database, we report on reasons for AS discontinuation.Design, setting, and participantsWe compared data from 10296 men on AS from 21 centres across 12 countries.Outcome measurements and statistical analysisCumulative incidence methods were used to estimate the cumulative incidence rates of AS discontinuation.Results and limitationsDuring 5-yr follow-up, 27.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 26.4-28.6%) men showed signs of disease progression, 12.8% (95% CI: 12.0-13.6%) converted to active treatment without evidence of progression, 1.7% (95% CI: 1.5-2.0%) continued to watchful waiting, and 1.7% (95% CI: 1.4-2.1%) died from other causes. Of the 7049 men who remained on AS, 2339 had follow-up for >5yr, 4561 had follow-up for

Deep learning (DL)–based algorithms to determine prostate cancer (PCa) Grade Group (GG) on biopsy slides have not been validated by comparison to clinical outcomes. We used a DL-based algorithm, AIRAProstate, to regrade initial prostate biopsies in 2 independent PCa active surveillance (AS) cohorts. In a cohort initially diagnosed with GG1 PCa using only systematic biopsies (n = 138), upgrading of the initial biopsy to ≥GG2 by AIRAProstate was associated with rapid or extreme grade reclassification on AS (odds ratio = 3.3, P  =  .04), whereas upgrading of the initial biopsy by contemporary uropathologist reviews was not associated with this outcome. In a contemporary validation cohort that underwent prostate magnetic resonance imaging before initial biopsy (n = 169), upgrading of the initial biopsy (all contemporary GG1 by uropathologist grading) by AIRAProstate was associated with grade reclassification on AS (hazard ratio = 1.7, P  =  .03). These results demonstrate the utility of a DL-based grading algorithm in PCa risk stratification for AS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Outcomes after cancer diagnosis and treatment are often observed at discrete times via doctor-patient encounters or specialized diagnostic examinations. Despite their ubiquity as endpoints in cancer studies, such outcomes pose challenges for analysis. In particular, comparisons between studies or patient populations with different surveillance schema may be confounded by differences in visit frequencies. We present a statistical framework based on multistate and hidden Markov models that represents events on a continuous time scale given data with discrete observation times. To demonstrate this framework, we consider the problem of comparing risks of prostate cancer progression across multiple active surveillance cohorts with different surveillance frequencies. We show that the different surveillance schedules partially explain observed differences in the progression risks between cohorts. Our application permits the conclusion that differences in underlying cancer progression risks across cohorts persist after accounting for different surveillance frequencies.

Purpose: Currently, no genomic signature exists to distinguish men most likely to progress on adjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) after radical prostatectomy for high-risk prostate cancer. Here we develop and validate a gene expression signature to predict response to postoperative ADT.Experimental Design: A training set consisting of 284 radical prostatectomy patients was established after 1:1 propensity score matching metastasis between adjuvant-ADT (a-ADT)-treated and no ADT-treated groups. An ADT Response Signature (ADT-RS) was identified from neuroendocrine and AR signaling-related genes. Two independent cohorts were used to form three separate data sets for validation (set I, n = 232; set II, n = 435; set III, n = 612). The primary endpoint of the analysis was postoperative metastasis.Results: Increases in ADT-RS score were associated with a reduction in risk of metastasis only in a-ADT patients. On multivariable analysis, ADT-RS by ADT treatment interaction term remained associated with metastasis in both validation sets (set I: HR = 0.18, Pinteraction = 0.009; set II: HR = 0.25, Pinteraction = 0.019). In a matched validation set III, patients with Low ADT-RS scores had similar 10-year metastasis rates in the a-ADT and no-ADT groups (30.1% vs. 31.0%, P = 0.989). Among High ADT-RS patients, 10-year metastasis rates were significantly lower for a-ADT versus no-ADT patients (9.4% vs. 29.2%, P = 0.021). The marginal ADT-RS by ADT interaction remained significant in the matched dataset (Pinteraction = 0.035).Conclusions: Patients with High ADT-RS benefited from a-ADT. In combination with prognostic risk factors, use of ADT-RS may thus allow for identification of ADT-responsive tumors that may benefit most from early androgen blockade after radical prostatectomy. We discovered a gene signature that when present in primary prostate tumors may be useful to predict patients who may respond to early ADT after surgery. Clin Cancer Res; 24(16); 3908-16. ©2018 AACR.

BackgroundRisk of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) is highly variable for men with adverse pathologic features at radical prostatectomy (RP); a majority will die of other causes. Accurately stratifying PCSM risk can improve therapy decisions.ObjectiveValidate the 22 gene Decipher genomic classifier (GC) to predict PCSM in men with adverse pathologic features after RP.Design, setting, and participantsMen with adverse pathologic features: pT3, pN1, positive margins, or Gleason score >7 who underwent RP in 1987-2010 at Johns Hopkins, Cleveland Clinic, Mayo Clinic, and Durham Veteran's Affairs Hospital. We also analyzed subgroups at high risk (prostate-specific antigen >20 ng/ml, RP Gleason score 8-10, or stage >pT3b), or very high risk of PCSM (biochemical recurrence in 0.6) versus low-intermediate (≤ 0.6), the odds ratio for PCSM10 adjusted for CAPRA-S was 3.91 (95% confidence interval: 2.43-6.29), with AUC=0.77, an increase of 0.04 compared with CAPRA-S. Subgroup odds ratios were 3.96, 3.06, and 1.95 for high risk, BCR2, or MET, respectively (all p

BackgroundActive surveillance (AS) is increasingly accepted for managing low-risk prostate cancer, yet there is no consensus about implementation. This lack of consensus is due in part to uncertainty about risks for disease progression, which have not been systematically compared or integrated across AS studies with variable surveillance protocols and dropout to active treatment.ObjectiveTo compare risks for upgrading from a Gleason score (GS) of 6 or less to 7 or more across AS studies after accounting for differences in surveillance intervals and competing treatments and to evaluate tradeoffs of more versus less frequent biopsies.DesignJoint statistical model of longitudinal prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels and risks for biopsy upgrading.SettingJohns Hopkins University (JHU); Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study (PASS); University of California, San Francisco (UCSF); and University of Toronto (UT) AS studies.Patients2576 men aged 40 to 80 years with a GS between 2 and 6 and clinical stage T1 or T2 prostate cancer enrolled between 1995 and 2014.MeasurementsPSA levels and biopsy GSs.ResultsAfter variable surveillance intervals and competing treatments were accounted for, estimated risks for biopsy upgrading were similar in the PASS and UT studies but higher in UCSF and lower in JHU studies. All cohorts had a delay of 3 to 5 months in detecting upgrading with biennial biopsies starting after a first confirmatory biopsy versus annual biopsies.LimitationThe model does not account for possible misclassification of biopsy GS.ConclusionMen in different AS studies have different risks for biopsy upgrading after variable surveillance protocols and competing treatments are accounted for. Despite these differences, the consequences of more versus less frequent biopsies seem to be similar across cohorts. Biennial biopsies seem to be an acceptable alternative to annual biopsies.Primary funding sourceNational Cancer Institute.

Purpose To perform the first meta-analysis of the performance of the genomic classifier test, Decipher, in men with prostate cancer postprostatectomy. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Decipher genomic resource information database were searched for published reports between 2011 and 2016 of men treated by prostatectomy that assessed the benefit of the Decipher test. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models fit to individual patient data were performed; meta-analyses were conducted by pooling the study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) using random-effects modeling. Extent of heterogeneity between studies was determined with the I2 test. Results Five studies (975 total patients, and 855 patients with individual patient-level data) were eligible for analysis, with a median follow-up of 8 years. Of the total cohort, 60.9%, 22.6%, and 16.5% of patients were classified by Decipher as low, intermediate, and high risk, respectively. The 10-year cumulative incidence metastases rates were 5.5%, 15.0%, and 26.7% ( P < .001), respectively, for the three risk classifications. Pooling the study-specific Decipher HRs across the five studies resulted in an HR of 1.52 (95% CI, 1.39 to 1.67; I2 = 0%) per 0.1 unit. In multivariable analysis of individual patient data, adjusting for clinicopathologic variables, Decipher remained a statistically significant predictor of metastasis (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.47; P < .001) per 0.1 unit. The C-index for 10-year distant metastasis of the clinical model alone was 0.76; this increased to 0.81 with inclusion of Decipher. Conclusion The genomic classifier test, Decipher, can independently improve prognostication of patients postprostatectomy, as well as within nearly all clinicopathologic, demographic, and treatment subgroups. Future study of how to best incorporate genomic testing in clinical decision-making and subsequent treatment recommendations is warranted.

Objectives: To evaluate the utility of the 17‐gene Genomic Prostate Score® (GPS; MDxHealth, Irvine, CA, USA) performed on prostate cancer at the positive margin of the radical prostatectomy (RP) for its association with risk of subsequent biochemical recurrence (BCR). Patients and Methods: We designed a case‐cohort for the outcome of BCR, selecting 223 from a cohort of 813 RP patients treated at Johns Hopkins from 2008 to 2017 with positive margins and available clinical data; of these, 213 had available tissue and clinical data. RNA was isolated from formalin‐fixed paraffin‐embedded tumour tissue adjacent to the positive surgical margin and the GPS was evaluable in 203 of these patients with a score ranging from 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating higher risk. All patients underwent RP with or without adjuvant radiation therapy (ART). The statistical analysis employed Cox proportional hazards regression models for outcome of BCR weighted for case‐cohort design. Results: In univariable analysis, every 20‐unit increase in the GPS was associated with a nearly threefold increase in risk of BCR (hazard ratio [HR] per 20 units 2.82, P < 0.001). In a multivariable Cox model adjusted for age, race, Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Postsurgical score, Grade Group at the positive margin, and ART, the GPS was significantly associated with BCR (HR 1.56 per 20 units; 95% confidence interval 1.11–2.19; P = 0.011). The study is limited by its retrospective and single institution design. Conclusions: The GPS at the positive surgical margin could help stratify prognosis and inform clinical decision‐making regarding adjuvant therapy after RP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Men who enter active surveillance because their biopsy exhibits only Gleason grade 3 (G3) frequently have higher grade tumor missed by biopsy. Thus, biomarkers are needed that, when measured on G3 tissue, can predict the presence of higher grade tumor in the whole prostate. We evaluated whether PTEN loss, chromosome 8q gain (MYC) and/or 8p loss (LPL) measured only on G3 cores is associated with un-sampled G4 tumor. A tissue microarray was constructed of prostatectomy tissue from patients whose prostates exhibited only Gleason score 3+3, only 3+4 or only 4+3 tumor (n=50 per group). Cores sampled only from areas of G3 were evaluated for PTEN loss by immunohistochemistry, and PTEN deletion, LPL/8p loss and MYC/8q gain by fluorescence in situ hybridization. Biomarker results were compared between Gleason score 6 vs 7 tumors using conditional logistic regression. PTEN protein loss, odds ratio=4.99, P=0.033; MYC/8q gain, odds ratio=5.36, P=0.010; and LPL/8p loss, odds ratio=3.96, P=0.003 were significantly more common in G3 cores derived from Gleason 7 vs Gleason 6 tumors. PTEN gene deletion was not statistically significant. Associations were stronger comparing Gleason 4+3 vs 6 than for Gleason 3+4 vs 6. MYC/8q gain, LPL/8p loss and PTEN protein loss measured in G3 tissue microarray cores strongly differentiate whether the core comes from a Gleason 6 or Gleason 7 tumor. If validated to predict upgrading from G3 biopsy to prostatectomy these biomarkers could reduce the likelihood of enrolling high-risk men and facilitate safe patient selection for active surveillance.