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3. Research priorities for climate mobility

Author

Simpson, Nicholas P., Mach, Katharine J., Tebboth, Mark G.L., Gilmore, Elisabeth A., Siders, A.R., Holden, Petra, Anderson, Brilé, Singh, Chandni, Sabour, Salma, Stringer, Lindsay C., Sterly, Harald, Williams, Portia Adade, Meyer, Andreas L.S., Cundill, Georgina, Rosengaertner, Sarah, Nunow, Abdimajid, Amakrane, Kamal, and Trisos, Christopher H.

Published
2024
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4. A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change

Author

Berrang-Ford, Lea, Siders, AR, Lesnikowski, Alexandra, Fischer, Alexandra Paige, Callaghan, Max W, Haddaway, Neal R, Mach, Katharine J, Araos, Malcolm, Shah, Mohammad Aminur Rahman, Wannewitz, Mia, Doshi, Deepal, Leiter, Timo, Matavel, Custodio, Musah-Surugu, Justice Issah, Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle, Antwi-Agyei, Philip, Ajibade, Idowu, Chauhan, Neha, Kakenmaster, William, Grady, Caitlin, Chalastani, Vasiliki I, Jagannathan, Kripa, Galappaththi, Eranga K, Sitati, Asha, Scarpa, Giulia, Totin, Edmond, Davis, Katy, Hamilton, Nikita Charles, Kirchhoff, Christine J, Kumar, Praveen, Pentz, Brian, Simpson, Nicholas P, Theokritoff, Emily, Deryng, Delphine, Reckien, Diana, Zavaleta-Cortijo, Carol, Ulibarri, Nicola, Segnon, Alcade C, Khavhagali, Vhalinavho, Shang, Yuanyuan, Zvobgo, Luckson, Zommers, Zinta, Xu, Jiren, Williams, Portia Adade, Canosa, Ivan Villaverde, van Maanen, Nicole, van Bavel, Bianca, van Aalst, Maarten, Turek-Hankins, Lynée L, Trivedi, Hasti, Trisos, Christopher H, Thomas, Adelle, Thakur, Shinny, Templeman, Sienna, Stringer, Lindsay C, Sotnik, Garry, Sjostrom, Kathryn Dana, Singh, Chandni, Siña, Mariella Z, Shukla, Roopam, Sardans, Jordi, Salubi, Eunice A, Safaee Chalkasra, Lolita Shaila, Ruiz-Díaz, Raquel, Richards, Carys, Pokharel, Pratik, Petzold, Jan, Penuelas, Josep, Pelaez Avila, Julia, Murillo, Julia B Pazmino, Ouni, Souha, Niemann, Jennifer, Nielsen, Miriam, New, Mark, Nayna Schwerdtle, Patricia, Nagle Alverio, Gabriela, Mullin, Cristina A, Mullenite, Joshua, Mosurska, Anuszka, Morecroft, Mike D, Minx, Jan C, Maskell, Gina, Nunbogu, Abraham Marshall, Magnan, Alexandre K, Lwasa, Shuaib, Lukas-Sithole, Megan, Lissner, Tabea, Lilford, Oliver, Koller, Steven F, Jurjonas, Matthew, Joe, Elphin Tom, Huynh, Lam TM, Hill, Avery, Hernandez, Rebecca R, Hegde, Greeshma, Hawxwell, Tom, Harper, Sherilee, Harden, Alexandra, Haasnoot, Marjolijn, and Gilmore, Elisabeth A

Subjects
Climate Action, Atmospheric Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Environmental Science and Management
Abstract

Assessing global progress on human adaptation to climate change is an urgent priority. Although the literature on adaptation to climate change is rapidly expanding, little is known about the actual extent of implementation. We systematically screened >48,000 articles using machine learning methods and a global network of 126 researchers. Our synthesis of the resulting 1,682 articles presents a systematic and comprehensive global stocktake of implemented human adaptation to climate change. Documented adaptations were largely fragmented, local and incremental, with limited evidence of transformational adaptation and negligible evidence of risk reduction outcomes. We identify eight priorities for global adaptation research: assess the effectiveness of adaptation responses, enhance the understanding of limits to adaptation, enable individuals and civil society to adapt, include missing places, scholars and scholarship, understand private sector responses, improve methods for synthesizing different forms of evidence, assess the adaptation at different temperature thresholds, and improve the inclusion of timescale and the dynamics of responses.

Published
2021

7. Adaptation to compound climate risks: A systematic global stocktake

Author

Simpson, Nicholas P., Williams, Portia Adade, Mach, Katharine J., Berrang-Ford, Lea, Biesbroek, Robbert, Haasnoot, Marjolijn, Segnon, Alcade C., Campbell, Donovan, Musah-Surugu, Justice Issah, Joe, Elphin Tom, Nunbogu, Abraham Marshall, Sabour, Salma, Meyer, Andreas L.S., Andrews, Talbot M., Singh, Chandni, Siders, A.R., Lawrence, Judy, van Aalst, Maarten, and Trisos, Christopher H.

Published
2023
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10. Decolonizing climate change–heritage research

Author

Simpson, Nicholas P., Clarke, Joanne, Orr, Scott Allan, Cundill, Georgina, Orlove, Ben, Fatorić, Sandra, Sabour, Salma, Khalaf, Nadia, Rockman, Marcy, Pinho, Patricia, Maharaj, Shobha S., Mascarenhas, Poonam V., Shepherd, Nick, Sithole, Pindai M., Ngaruiya, Grace Wambui, Roberts, Debra C., and Trisos, Christopher H.

Published
2022
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13. The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases

Author

Gibb, Rory, primary, Ryan, Sadie J., additional, Pigott, David, additional, Fernandez, Maria del Pilar, additional, Muylaert, Renata L., additional, Albery, Gregory F., additional, Becker, Daniel J., additional, Blackburn, Jason K., additional, Caceres-Escobar, Hernan, additional, Celone, Michael, additional, Eskew, Evan A., additional, Frank, Hannah K., additional, Han, Barbara A., additional, Hulland, Erin N., additional, Jones, Kate E., additional, Katz, Rebecca, additional, Kucharski, Adam, additional, Limmathurotsakul, Direk, additional, Lippi, Catherine A., additional, Longbottom, Joshua, additional, Martinez, Juan Fernando, additional, Messina, Jane P., additional, Nsoesie, Elaine O., additional, Redding, David W., additional, Romero-Alvarez, Daniel, additional, Schmid, Boris V., additional, Seifert, Stephanie N., additional, Sinchi, Anabel, additional, Trisos, Christopher H., additional, Wille, Michelle, additional, and Carlson, Colin J., additional

Published
2024
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14. Climate change literacy in Africa

Author

Simpson, Nicholas P., Andrews, Talbot M., Krönke, Matthias, Lennard, Christopher, Odoulami, Romaric C., Ouweneel, Birgitt, Steynor, Anna, and Trisos, Christopher H.

Published
2021
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16. From moral hazard to risk-response feedback

Author

Jebari, Joseph, Táíwò, Olúfẹ́mi O., Andrews, Talbot M., Aquila, Valentina, Beckage, Brian, Belaia, Mariia, Clifford, Maggie, Fuhrman, Jay, Keller, David P., Mach, Katharine J., Morrow, David R., Raimi, Kaitlin T., Visioni, Daniele, Nicholson, Simon, and Trisos, Christopher H.

Published
2021
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18. The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change

Author

Trisos, Christopher H., Merow, Cory, and Pigot, Alex L.

Subjects
Character displacement -- Analysis -- Forecasts and trends -- Environmental aspects, Climatic changes -- Environmental aspects -- Forecasts and trends -- Analysis, Habitat destruction -- Analysis -- Environmental aspects -- Forecasts and trends, Market trend/market analysis, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation
Abstract

As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon.sup.1-3. However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 °C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species; however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 °C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur. Using annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade., Author(s): Christopher H. Trisos [sup.1] [sup.2] [sup.3] , Cory Merow [sup.4] , Alex L. Pigot [sup.5] Author Affiliations: (1) African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, [...]

Published
2020
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20. Reply to: Spatial scale and the synchrony of ecological disruption

Author

Trisos, Christopher H., Merow, Cory, and Pigot, Alex L.

Subjects
Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation
Abstract

Author(s): Christopher H. Trisos [sup.1] [sup.2] [sup.3] , Cory Merow [sup.4] , Alex L. Pigot [sup.5] Author Affiliations: (1) African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, [...]

Published
2021
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22. Compound climate risks in the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Phillips, Carly A., Caldas, Astrid, Cleetus, Rachel, Dahl, Kristina A., Declet-Barreto, Juan, Licker, Rachel, Merner, L. Delta, Ortiz-Partida, J. Pablo, Phelan, Alexandra L., Spanger-Siegfried, Erika, Talati, Shuchi, Trisos, Christopher H., and Carlson, Colin J.

Published
2020
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27. Expert perspectives on global biodiversity loss and its drivers and impacts on people

Author

Isbell, Forest, Balvanera, Patricia, Mori, Akira S., He, Jin Sheng, Bullock, James M., Regmi, Ganga Ram, Seabloom, Eric W., Ferrier, Simon, Sala, Osvaldo E., Guerrero-Ramírez, Nathaly R., Tavella, Julia, Larkin, Daniel J., Schmid, Bernhard, Outhwaite, Charlotte L., Pramual, Pairot, Borer, Elizabeth T., Loreau, Michel, Omotoriogun, Taiwo Crossby, Obura, David O., Anderson, Maggie, Portales-Reyes, Cristina, Kirkman, Kevin, Vergara, Pablo M., Clark, Adam Thomas, Komatsu, Kimberly J., Petchey, Owen L., Weiskopf, Sarah R., Williams, Laura J., Collins, Scott L., Eisenhauer, Nico, Trisos, Christopher H., Renard, Delphine, Wright, Alexandra J., Tripathi, Poonam, Cowles, Jane, Byrnes, Jarrett E.K., Reich, Peter B., Purvis, Andy, Sharip, Zati, O’Connor, Mary I., Kazanski, Clare E., Haddad, Nick M., Soto, Eulogio H., Dee, Laura E., Díaz, Sandra, Zirbel, Chad R., Avolio, Meghan L., Wang, Shaopeng, Ma, Zhiyuan, Liang, Jingjing, Farah, Hanan C., Johnson, Justin Andrew, Miller, Brian W., Hautier, Yann, Smith, Melinda D., Knops, Johannes M.H., Myers, Bonnie J.E., Harmáčková, Zuzana V., Cortés, Jorge, Harfoot, Michael B.J., Gonzalez, Andrew, Newbold, Tim, Oehri, Jacqueline, Mazón, Marina, Dobbs, Cynnamon, Palmer, Meredith S., Isbell, Forest, Balvanera, Patricia, Mori, Akira S., He, Jin Sheng, Bullock, James M., Regmi, Ganga Ram, Seabloom, Eric W., Ferrier, Simon, Sala, Osvaldo E., Guerrero-Ramírez, Nathaly R., Tavella, Julia, Larkin, Daniel J., Schmid, Bernhard, Outhwaite, Charlotte L., Pramual, Pairot, Borer, Elizabeth T., Loreau, Michel, Omotoriogun, Taiwo Crossby, Obura, David O., Anderson, Maggie, Portales-Reyes, Cristina, Kirkman, Kevin, Vergara, Pablo M., Clark, Adam Thomas, Komatsu, Kimberly J., Petchey, Owen L., Weiskopf, Sarah R., Williams, Laura J., Collins, Scott L., Eisenhauer, Nico, Trisos, Christopher H., Renard, Delphine, Wright, Alexandra J., Tripathi, Poonam, Cowles, Jane, Byrnes, Jarrett E.K., Reich, Peter B., Purvis, Andy, Sharip, Zati, O’Connor, Mary I., Kazanski, Clare E., Haddad, Nick M., Soto, Eulogio H., Dee, Laura E., Díaz, Sandra, Zirbel, Chad R., Avolio, Meghan L., Wang, Shaopeng, Ma, Zhiyuan, Liang, Jingjing, Farah, Hanan C., Johnson, Justin Andrew, Miller, Brian W., Hautier, Yann, Smith, Melinda D., Knops, Johannes M.H., Myers, Bonnie J.E., Harmáčková, Zuzana V., Cortés, Jorge, Harfoot, Michael B.J., Gonzalez, Andrew, Newbold, Tim, Oehri, Jacqueline, Mazón, Marina, Dobbs, Cynnamon, and Palmer, Meredith S.

Abstract

Despite substantial progress in understanding global biodiversity loss, major taxonomic and geographic knowledge gaps remain. Decision makers often rely on expert judgement to fill knowledge gaps, but are rarely able to engage with sufficiently large and diverse groups of specialists. To improve understanding of the perspectives of thousands of biodiversity experts worldwide, we conducted a survey and asked experts to focus on the taxa and freshwater, terrestrial, or marine ecosystem with which they are most familiar. We found several points of overwhelming consensus (for instance, multiple drivers of biodiversity loss interact synergistically) and important demographic and geographic differences in specialists’ perspectives and estimates. Experts from groups that are underrepresented in biodiversity science, including women and those from the Global South, recommended different priorities for conservation solutions, with less emphasis on acquiring new protected areas, and provided higher estimates of biodiversity loss and its impacts. This may in part be because they disproportionately study the most highly threatened taxa and habitats. Front Ecol Environ 2022;.

Published
2023

28. Expert perspectives on global biodiversity loss and its drivers and impacts on people

Author

Sub Ecology and Biodiversity, Ecology and Biodiversity, Isbell, Forest, Balvanera, Patricia, Mori, Akira S., He, Jin Sheng, Bullock, James M., Regmi, Ganga Ram, Seabloom, Eric W., Ferrier, Simon, Sala, Osvaldo E., Guerrero-Ramírez, Nathaly R., Tavella, Julia, Larkin, Daniel J., Schmid, Bernhard, Outhwaite, Charlotte L., Pramual, Pairot, Borer, Elizabeth T., Loreau, Michel, Omotoriogun, Taiwo Crossby, Obura, David O., Anderson, Maggie, Portales-Reyes, Cristina, Kirkman, Kevin, Vergara, Pablo M., Clark, Adam Thomas, Komatsu, Kimberly J., Petchey, Owen L., Weiskopf, Sarah R., Williams, Laura J., Collins, Scott L., Eisenhauer, Nico, Trisos, Christopher H., Renard, Delphine, Wright, Alexandra J., Tripathi, Poonam, Cowles, Jane, Byrnes, Jarrett E.K., Reich, Peter B., Purvis, Andy, Sharip, Zati, O’Connor, Mary I., Kazanski, Clare E., Haddad, Nick M., Soto, Eulogio H., Dee, Laura E., Díaz, Sandra, Zirbel, Chad R., Avolio, Meghan L., Wang, Shaopeng, Ma, Zhiyuan, Liang, Jingjing, Farah, Hanan C., Johnson, Justin Andrew, Miller, Brian W., Hautier, Yann, Smith, Melinda D., Knops, Johannes M.H., Myers, Bonnie J.E., Harmáčková, Zuzana V., Cortés, Jorge, Harfoot, Michael B.J., Gonzalez, Andrew, Newbold, Tim, Oehri, Jacqueline, Mazón, Marina, Dobbs, Cynnamon, Palmer, Meredith S., Sub Ecology and Biodiversity, Ecology and Biodiversity, Isbell, Forest, Balvanera, Patricia, Mori, Akira S., He, Jin Sheng, Bullock, James M., Regmi, Ganga Ram, Seabloom, Eric W., Ferrier, Simon, Sala, Osvaldo E., Guerrero-Ramírez, Nathaly R., Tavella, Julia, Larkin, Daniel J., Schmid, Bernhard, Outhwaite, Charlotte L., Pramual, Pairot, Borer, Elizabeth T., Loreau, Michel, Omotoriogun, Taiwo Crossby, Obura, David O., Anderson, Maggie, Portales-Reyes, Cristina, Kirkman, Kevin, Vergara, Pablo M., Clark, Adam Thomas, Komatsu, Kimberly J., Petchey, Owen L., Weiskopf, Sarah R., Williams, Laura J., Collins, Scott L., Eisenhauer, Nico, Trisos, Christopher H., Renard, Delphine, Wright, Alexandra J., Tripathi, Poonam, Cowles, Jane, Byrnes, Jarrett E.K., Reich, Peter B., Purvis, Andy, Sharip, Zati, O’Connor, Mary I., Kazanski, Clare E., Haddad, Nick M., Soto, Eulogio H., Dee, Laura E., Díaz, Sandra, Zirbel, Chad R., Avolio, Meghan L., Wang, Shaopeng, Ma, Zhiyuan, Liang, Jingjing, Farah, Hanan C., Johnson, Justin Andrew, Miller, Brian W., Hautier, Yann, Smith, Melinda D., Knops, Johannes M.H., Myers, Bonnie J.E., Harmáčková, Zuzana V., Cortés, Jorge, Harfoot, Michael B.J., Gonzalez, Andrew, Newbold, Tim, Oehri, Jacqueline, Mazón, Marina, Dobbs, Cynnamon, and Palmer, Meredith S.

Published
2023

30. List of Contributors

Author

Abrahams, Daniel, primary, Alverson, Keith, additional, Arrighi, Julie, additional, Bailey, Meghan, additional, Barr, Jane, additional, Bourne, Amanda, additional, Bowman, Kerry W., additional, Bronen, Robin, additional, Brown, Glenroy, additional, Buizer, James, additional, Chandra, Alvin, additional, Clarke, Judi, additional, Coffel, Ethan D., additional, Corendea, Cosmin, additional, de Perez, Erin Coughlan, additional, de Sherbinin, Alex, additional, De Souza, Roger-Mark, additional, Dickson, Barney, additional, Florano, Ebinezer R., additional, Fox, Karyn M., additional, Frankenberger, Timothy R., additional, Furlow, John, additional, Gabriel, Corey, additional, Greenwalt, Julie, additional, Lund, H. Gyde, additional, Harootunian, Gillisann, additional, Henly-Shepard, Sarah, additional, Horton, Radley M., additional, Huq, Saleemul, additional, Iyahen, Ekhosuehi, additional, Jjemba, Eddie Wasswa, additional, Jordaan, Andries J., additional, Kerr, Siobhan E., additional, Kienberger, Stefan, additional, Lane, Kathryn, additional, Langworthy, Mark, additional, Levine, Eliot, additional, Lúcio, Filipe D.F., additional, Lumbroso, Darren, additional, Mahid, Yousuf, additional, Mani, Tanvi, additional, Manialawy, Yousef M., additional, Mashimbye, Curtis, additional, Mason, Simon J., additional, Mayumbe, Fumiso, additional, McNamara, Karen E., additional, Meyer, Rachelle, additional, Muller, Halcyone, additional, Mwebaze, Brian Kanaahe, additional, Nelson, Suzanne, additional, Nicholls, Robert J., additional, Olhoff, Anne, additional, Orindi, Victor, additional, Pathak, Janak, additional, Podvin, Karen, additional, Raasakka, Nina, additional, Ramsbottom, David, additional, Reid, Hannah, additional, Robock, Alan, additional, Sakulski, Dusan M., additional, Scorgie, Sarshen, additional, Singh, Ashbindu, additional, Sobel, Adam H., additional, Suliman, Nadine, additional, Syroka, Joanna, additional, Tippett, Michael K., additional, Trisos, Christopher H., additional, Väänänen, Elina, additional, Vogel, Elisabeth, additional, Warner, Alan, additional, Wilhelmi, Olga, additional, Xia, Lili, additional, and Zommers, Zinta, additional

Published
2018
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36. Expert perspectives on global biodiversity loss and its drivers and impacts on people

Author

Isbell, Forest, primary, Balvanera, Patricia, additional, Mori, Akira S, additional, He, Jin‐Sheng, additional, Bullock, James M, additional, Regmi, Ganga Ram, additional, Seabloom, Eric W, additional, Ferrier, Simon, additional, Sala, Osvaldo E, additional, Guerrero‐Ramírez, Nathaly R, additional, Tavella, Julia, additional, Larkin, Daniel J, additional, Schmid, Bernhard, additional, Outhwaite, Charlotte L, additional, Pramual, Pairot, additional, Borer, Elizabeth T, additional, Loreau, Michel, additional, Omotoriogun, Taiwo Crossby, additional, Obura, David O, additional, Anderson, Maggie, additional, Portales‐Reyes, Cristina, additional, Kirkman, Kevin, additional, Vergara, Pablo M, additional, Clark, Adam Thomas, additional, Komatsu, Kimberly J, additional, Petchey, Owen L, additional, Weiskopf, Sarah R, additional, Williams, Laura J, additional, Collins, Scott L, additional, Eisenhauer, Nico, additional, Trisos, Christopher H, additional, Renard, Delphine, additional, Wright, Alexandra J, additional, Tripathi, Poonam, additional, Cowles, Jane, additional, Byrnes, Jarrett EK, additional, Reich, Peter B, additional, Purvis, Andy, additional, Sharip, Zati, additional, O’Connor, Mary I, additional, Kazanski, Clare E, additional, Haddad, Nick M, additional, Soto, Eulogio H, additional, Dee, Laura E, additional, Díaz, Sandra, additional, Zirbel, Chad R, additional, Avolio, Meghan L, additional, Wang, Shaopeng, additional, Ma, Zhiyuan, additional, Liang, Jingjing, additional, Farah, Hanan C, additional, Johnson, Justin Andrew, additional, Miller, Brian W, additional, Hautier, Yann, additional, Smith, Melinda D, additional, Knops, Johannes MH, additional, Myers, Bonnie JE, additional, Harmáčková, Zuzana V, additional, Cortés, Jorge, additional, Harfoot, Michael BJ, additional, Gonzalez, Andrew, additional, Newbold, Tim, additional, Oehri, Jacqueline, additional, Mazón, Marina, additional, Dobbs, Cynnamon, additional, and Palmer, Meredith S, additional

Published
2022
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38. AVONET:morphological, ecological and geographical data for all birds

Author

Tobias, Joseph A., Sheard, Catherine, Pigot, Alex L., Devenish, Adam J. M., Yang, Jingyi, Sayol, Ferran, Neate-Clegg, Montague H. C., Alioravainen, Nico, Weeks, Thomas L., Barber, Robert A., Walkden, Patrick A., MacGregor, Hannah E. A., Jones, Samuel E. I., Vincent, Claire, Phillips, Anna G., Marples, Nicola M., Montaño-Centellas, Flavia A., Leandro-Silva, Victor, Claramunt, Santiago, Darski, Bianca, Freeman, Benjamin G., Bregman, Tom P., Cooney, Christopher R., Hughes, Emma C., Capp, Elliot J. R., Varley, Zoë K., Friedman, Nicholas R., Korntheuer, Heiko, Corrales-Vargas, Andrea, Trisos, Christopher H., Weeks, Brian C., Hanz, Dagmar M., Töpfer, Till, Bravo, Gustavo A., Remeš, Vladimír, Nowak, Larissa, Carneiro, Lincoln S., Moncada R., Amilkar J., Matysioková, Beata, Baldassarre, Daniel T., Martínez-Salinas, Alejandra, Wolfe, Jared D., Chapman, Philip M., Daly, Benjamin G., Sorensen, Marjorie C., Neu, Alexander, Ford, Michael A., Mayhew, Rebekah J., Fabio Silveira, Luis, Kelly, David J., Annorbah, Nathaniel N. D., Pollock, Henry S., Grabowska-Zhang, Ada M., McEntee, Jay P., Carlos T. Gonzalez, Juan, Meneses, Camila G., Muñoz, Marcia C., Powell, Luke L., Jamie, Gabriel A., Matthews, Thomas J., Johnson, Oscar, Brito, Guilherme R. R., Zyskowski, Kristof, Crates, Ross, Harvey, Michael G., Jurado Zevallos, Maura, Hosner, Peter A., Bradfer-Lawrence, Tom, Maley, James M., Stiles, F. Gary, Lima, Hevana S., Provost, Kaiya L., Chibesa, Moses, Mashao, Mmatjie, Howard, Jeffrey T., Mlamba, Edson, Chua, Marcus A. H., Li, Bicheng, Gómez, M. Isabel, García, Natalia C., Päckert, Martin, Fuchs, Jérôme, Ali, Jarome R., Derryberry, Elizabeth P., Carlson, Monica L., Urriza, Rolly C., Brzeski, Kristin E., Prawiradilaga, Dewi M., Rayner, Matt J., Miller, Eliot T., Bowie, Rauri C. K., Lafontaine, René Marie, Scofield, R. Paul, Lou, Yingqiang, Somarathna, Lankani, Lepage, Denis, Illif, Marshall, Neuschulz, Eike Lena, Templin, Mathias, Dehling, D. Matthias, Cooper, Jacob C., Pauwels, Olivier S. G., Analuddin, Kangkuso, Fjeldså, Jon, Seddon, Nathalie, Sweet, Paul R., DeClerck, Fabrice A. J., Naka, Luciano N., Brawn, Jeffrey D., Aleixo, Alexandre, Böhning-Gaese, Katrin, Rahbek, Carsten, Fritz, Susanne A., Thomas, Gavin H., Schleuning, Matthias, Tobias, Joseph A., Sheard, Catherine, Pigot, Alex L., Devenish, Adam J. M., Yang, Jingyi, Sayol, Ferran, Neate-Clegg, Montague H. C., Alioravainen, Nico, Weeks, Thomas L., Barber, Robert A., Walkden, Patrick A., MacGregor, Hannah E. A., Jones, Samuel E. I., Vincent, Claire, Phillips, Anna G., Marples, Nicola M., Montaño-Centellas, Flavia A., Leandro-Silva, Victor, Claramunt, Santiago, Darski, Bianca, Freeman, Benjamin G., Bregman, Tom P., Cooney, Christopher R., Hughes, Emma C., Capp, Elliot J. R., Varley, Zoë K., Friedman, Nicholas R., Korntheuer, Heiko, Corrales-Vargas, Andrea, Trisos, Christopher H., Weeks, Brian C., Hanz, Dagmar M., Töpfer, Till, Bravo, Gustavo A., Remeš, Vladimír, Nowak, Larissa, Carneiro, Lincoln S., Moncada R., Amilkar J., Matysioková, Beata, Baldassarre, Daniel T., Martínez-Salinas, Alejandra, Wolfe, Jared D., Chapman, Philip M., Daly, Benjamin G., Sorensen, Marjorie C., Neu, Alexander, Ford, Michael A., Mayhew, Rebekah J., Fabio Silveira, Luis, Kelly, David J., Annorbah, Nathaniel N. D., Pollock, Henry S., Grabowska-Zhang, Ada M., McEntee, Jay P., Carlos T. Gonzalez, Juan, Meneses, Camila G., Muñoz, Marcia C., Powell, Luke L., Jamie, Gabriel A., Matthews, Thomas J., Johnson, Oscar, Brito, Guilherme R. R., Zyskowski, Kristof, Crates, Ross, Harvey, Michael G., Jurado Zevallos, Maura, Hosner, Peter A., Bradfer-Lawrence, Tom, Maley, James M., Stiles, F. Gary, Lima, Hevana S., Provost, Kaiya L., Chibesa, Moses, Mashao, Mmatjie, Howard, Jeffrey T., Mlamba, Edson, Chua, Marcus A. H., Li, Bicheng, Gómez, M. Isabel, García, Natalia C., Päckert, Martin, Fuchs, Jérôme, Ali, Jarome R., Derryberry, Elizabeth P., Carlson, Monica L., Urriza, Rolly C., Brzeski, Kristin E., Prawiradilaga, Dewi M., Rayner, Matt J., Miller, Eliot T., Bowie, Rauri C. K., Lafontaine, René Marie, Scofield, R. Paul, Lou, Yingqiang, Somarathna, Lankani, Lepage, Denis, Illif, Marshall, Neuschulz, Eike Lena, Templin, Mathias, Dehling, D. Matthias, Cooper, Jacob C., Pauwels, Olivier S. G., Analuddin, Kangkuso, Fjeldså, Jon, Seddon, Nathalie, Sweet, Paul R., DeClerck, Fabrice A. J., Naka, Luciano N., Brawn, Jeffrey D., Aleixo, Alexandre, Böhning-Gaese, Katrin, Rahbek, Carsten, Fritz, Susanne A., Thomas, Gavin H., and Schleuning, Matthias

Abstract

Functional traits offer a rich quantitative framework for developing and testing theories in evolutionary biology, ecology and ecosystem science. However, the potential of functional traits to drive theoretical advances and refine models of global change can only be fully realised when species-level information is complete. Here we present the AVONET dataset containing comprehensive functional trait data for all birds, including six ecological variables, 11 continuous morphological traits, and information on range size and location. Raw morphological measurements are presented from 90,020 individuals of 11,009 extant bird species sampled from 181 countries. These data are also summarised as species averages in three taxonomic formats, allowing integration with a global phylogeny, geographical range maps, IUCN Red List data and the eBird citizen science database. The AVONET dataset provides the most detailed picture of continuous trait variation for any major radiation of organisms, offering a global template for testing hypotheses and exploring the evolutionary origins, structure and functioning of biodiversity.

Published
2022

42. Supplementary Electronic Material from Risks to biodiversity from temperature overshoot pathways

Author

Meyer, Andreas L. S., Bentley, Joanne, Odoulami, Romaric C., Pigot, Alex L., and Trisos, Christopher H.

Subjects
genetic structures, sense organs
Abstract

Temperature overshoot pathways entail exceeding a specified global warming level (e.g. 1.5 °C or 2 °C) followed by a decline in warming, achieved through anthropogenically enhanced CO2 removal from the atmosphere. However, risks to biodiversity from temperature overshoot pathways are poorly described. Here, we explore biodiversity risks from overshoot by synthesizing existing knowledge and quantifying the dynamics of exposure and de-exposure to potentially dangerous temperatures for greater than 30 000 species for a 2 °C overshoot scenario. Our results suggest that climate risk to biodiversity from temperature overshoot pathways will arrive suddenly, but decrease only gradually. Peak exposure for biodiversity occurs around the same time as peak global warming, but the rate of de-exposure lags behind the temperature decline. While the global overshoot period lasts around 60 years, the duration of elevated exposure of marine and terrestrial biodiversity is substantially longer (around 100 and 130 years, respectively), with some ecological communities never returning to pre-overshoot exposure levels. Key biodiversity impacts may be irreversible and reliance on widespread CO2 removal to reduce warming poses additional risks to biodiversity through altered land use. Avoiding any temperature overshoot must be a priority for reducing biodiversity risks from climate change, followed by limiting the magnitude and duration of any overshoot. More integrated models that include direct and indirect impacts from overshoot are needed to inform policy.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years’.

Published
2022
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43. Cover Image: Volume 25 Number 3, March 2022

Author

Tobias, Joseph A., primary, Sheard, Catherine, additional, Pigot, Alex L., additional, Devenish, Adam J. M., additional, Yang, Jingyi, additional, Sayol, Ferran, additional, Neate‐Clegg, Montague H. C., additional, Alioravainen, Nico, additional, Weeks, Thomas L., additional, Barber, Robert A., additional, Walkden, Patrick A., additional, MacGregor, Hannah E. A., additional, Jones, Samuel E. I., additional, Vincent, Claire, additional, Phillips, Anna G., additional, Marples, Nicola M., additional, Montaño‐Centellas, Flavia A., additional, Leandro‐Silva, Victor, additional, Claramunt, Santiago, additional, Darski, Bianca, additional, Freeman, Benjamin G., additional, Bregman, Tom P., additional, Cooney, Christopher R., additional, Hughes, Emma C., additional, Capp, Elliot J. R., additional, Varley, Zoë K., additional, Friedman, Nicholas R., additional, Korntheuer, Heiko, additional, Corrales‐Vargas, Andrea, additional, Trisos, Christopher H., additional, Weeks, Brian C., additional, Hanz, Dagmar M., additional, Töpfer, Till, additional, Bravo, Gustavo A., additional, Remeš, Vladimír, additional, Nowak, Larissa, additional, Carneiro, Lincoln S., additional, Moncada R., Amilkar J., additional, Matysioková, Beata, additional, Baldassarre, Daniel T., additional, Martínez‐Salinas, Alejandra, additional, Wolfe, Jared D., additional, Chapman, Philip M., additional, Daly, Benjamin G., additional, Sorensen, Marjorie C., additional, Neu, Alexander, additional, Ford, Michael A., additional, Mayhew, Rebekah J., additional, Fabio Silveira, Luis, additional, Kelly, David J., additional, Annorbah, Nathaniel N. D., additional, Pollock, Henry S., additional, Grabowska‐Zhang, Ada M., additional, McEntee, Jay P., additional, Carlos T. Gonzalez, Juan, additional, Meneses, Camila G., additional, Muñoz, Marcia C., additional, Powell, Luke L., additional, Jamie, Gabriel A., additional, Matthews, Thomas J., additional, Johnson, Oscar, additional, Brito, Guilherme R. R., additional, Zyskowski, Kristof, additional, Crates, Ross, additional, Harvey, Michael G., additional, Jurado Zevallos, Maura, additional, Hosner, Peter A., additional, Bradfer‐Lawrence, Tom, additional, Maley, James M., additional, Stiles, F. Gary, additional, Lima, Hevana S., additional, Provost, Kaiya L., additional, Chibesa, Moses, additional, Mashao, Mmatjie, additional, Howard, Jeffrey T., additional, Mlamba, Edson, additional, Chua, Marcus A. H., additional, Li, Bicheng, additional, Gómez, M. Isabel, additional, García, Natalia C., additional, Päckert, Martin, additional, Fuchs, Jérôme, additional, Ali, Jarome R., additional, Derryberry, Elizabeth P., additional, Carlson, Monica L., additional, Urriza, Rolly C., additional, Brzeski, Kristin E., additional, Prawiradilaga, Dewi M., additional, Rayner, Matt J., additional, Miller, Eliot T., additional, Bowie, Rauri C. K., additional, Lafontaine, René‐Marie, additional, Scofield, R. Paul, additional, Lou, Yingqiang, additional, Somarathna, Lankani, additional, Lepage, Denis, additional, Illif, Marshall, additional, Neuschulz, Eike Lena, additional, Templin, Mathias, additional, Dehling, D. Matthias, additional, Cooper, Jacob C., additional, Pauwels, Olivier S. G., additional, Analuddin, Kangkuso, additional, Fjeldså, Jon, additional, Seddon, Nathalie, additional, Sweet, Paul R., additional, DeClerck, Fabrice A. J., additional, Naka, Luciano N., additional, Brawn, Jeffrey D., additional, Aleixo, Alexandre, additional, Böhning‐Gaese, Katrin, additional, Rahbek, Carsten, additional, Fritz, Susanne A., additional, Thomas, Gavin H., additional, and Schleuning, Matthias, additional

Published
2022
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44. AVONET: morphological, ecological and geographical data for all birds

Author

Tobias, Joseph A., primary, Sheard, Catherine, additional, Pigot, Alex L., additional, Devenish, Adam J. M., additional, Yang, Jingyi, additional, Sayol, Ferran, additional, Neate‐Clegg, Montague H. C., additional, Alioravainen, Nico, additional, Weeks, Thomas L., additional, Barber, Robert A., additional, Walkden, Patrick A., additional, MacGregor, Hannah E. A., additional, Jones, Samuel E. I., additional, Vincent, Claire, additional, Phillips, Anna G., additional, Marples, Nicola M., additional, Montaño‐Centellas, Flavia A., additional, Leandro‐Silva, Victor, additional, Claramunt, Santiago, additional, Darski, Bianca, additional, Freeman, Benjamin G., additional, Bregman, Tom P., additional, Cooney, Christopher R., additional, Hughes, Emma C., additional, Capp, Elliot J. R., additional, Varley, Zoë K., additional, Friedman, Nicholas R., additional, Korntheuer, Heiko, additional, Corrales‐Vargas, Andrea, additional, Trisos, Christopher H., additional, Weeks, Brian C., additional, Hanz, Dagmar M., additional, Töpfer, Till, additional, Bravo, Gustavo A., additional, Remeš, Vladimír, additional, Nowak, Larissa, additional, Carneiro, Lincoln S., additional, Moncada R., Amilkar J., additional, Matysioková, Beata, additional, Baldassarre, Daniel T., additional, Martínez‐Salinas, Alejandra, additional, Wolfe, Jared D., additional, Chapman, Philip M., additional, Daly, Benjamin G., additional, Sorensen, Marjorie C., additional, Neu, Alexander, additional, Ford, Michael A., additional, Mayhew, Rebekah J., additional, Fabio Silveira, Luis, additional, Kelly, David J., additional, Annorbah, Nathaniel N. D., additional, Pollock, Henry S., additional, Grabowska‐Zhang, Ada M., additional, McEntee, Jay P., additional, Carlos T. Gonzalez, Juan, additional, Meneses, Camila G., additional, Muñoz, Marcia C., additional, Powell, Luke L., additional, Jamie, Gabriel A., additional, Matthews, Thomas J., additional, Johnson, Oscar, additional, Brito, Guilherme R. R., additional, Zyskowski, Kristof, additional, Crates, Ross, additional, Harvey, Michael G., additional, Jurado Zevallos, Maura, additional, Hosner, Peter A., additional, Bradfer‐Lawrence, Tom, additional, Maley, James M., additional, Stiles, F. Gary, additional, Lima, Hevana S., additional, Provost, Kaiya L., additional, Chibesa, Moses, additional, Mashao, Mmatjie, additional, Howard, Jeffrey T., additional, Mlamba, Edson, additional, Chua, Marcus A. H., additional, Li, Bicheng, additional, Gómez, M. Isabel, additional, García, Natalia C., additional, Päckert, Martin, additional, Fuchs, Jérôme, additional, Ali, Jarome R., additional, Derryberry, Elizabeth P., additional, Carlson, Monica L., additional, Urriza, Rolly C., additional, Brzeski, Kristin E., additional, Prawiradilaga, Dewi M., additional, Rayner, Matt J., additional, Miller, Eliot T., additional, Bowie, Rauri C. K., additional, Lafontaine, René‐Marie, additional, Scofield, R. Paul, additional, Lou, Yingqiang, additional, Somarathna, Lankani, additional, Lepage, Denis, additional, Illif, Marshall, additional, Neuschulz, Eike Lena, additional, Templin, Mathias, additional, Dehling, D. Matthias, additional, Cooper, Jacob C., additional, Pauwels, Olivier S. G., additional, Analuddin, Kangkuso, additional, Fjeldså, Jon, additional, Seddon, Nathalie, additional, Sweet, Paul R., additional, DeClerck, Fabrice A. J., additional, Naka, Luciano N., additional, Brawn, Jeffrey D., additional, Aleixo, Alexandre, additional, Böhning‐Gaese, Katrin, additional, Rahbek, Carsten, additional, Fritz, Susanne A., additional, Thomas, Gavin H., additional, and Schleuning, Matthias, additional

Published
2022
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47. From fAIrplay to climate wars: making climate change scenarios more dynamic, creative, and integrative

Author

Pereira, Laura M., Morrow, David R., Aquila, Valentina, Beckage, Brian, Beckbesinger, Sam, Beukes, Lauren, Buck, Holly J., Carlson, Colin J., Geden, Oliver, Jones, Andrew P., Keller, David P., Mach, Katharine J., Mashigo, Mohale, Moreno-Cruz, Juan B., Visioni, Daniele, Nicholson, Simon, and Trisos, Christopher H.

Abstract

Understanding possible climate futures that include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation modification (SRM) requires thinking not just about staying within the remaining carbon budget, but also about politics and people. However, despite growing interest in CDR and SRM, scenarios focused on these potential responses to climate change tend to exclude feedbacks between social and climate systems (a criticism applicable to climate change scenarios more generally). We adapted the Manoa Mash- Up method to generate scenarios for CDR and SRM that were more integrative, creative, and dynamic. The method was modified to identify important branching points in which different choices in how to respond to climate change (feedbacks between climate and social dynamics) lead to a plurality of climate futures. An interdisciplinary group of participants imagined distant futures in which SRM or CDR develop into a major social-environmental force. Groups received other "seeds" of change, such as Universal Basic Income or China's Belt and Road Initiative, and surprises, such as permafrost collapse that grew to influence the course of events to 2100. Groups developed narratives describing pathways to the future and identified bifurcation points to generate families of branching scenarios. Four climate-social dynamics were identified: motivation to mitigate, moral hazard, social unrest, and trust in institutions. These dynamics could orient toward better or worse outcomes with SRM and CDR deployment (and mitigation and adaptation responses more generally) but are typically excluded from existing climate change scenarios. The importance of these dynamics could be tested through the inclusion of social-environmental feedbacks into integrated assessment models (IAM) exploring climate futures. We offer a step-by-step guide to the modified Manoa Mash-up method to generate more integrative, creative, and dynamic scenarios; reflect on broader implications of using this method for generating more dynamic scenarios for climate change research and policy; and provide examples of using the scenarios in climate policy communication, including a choose-your-own adventure game called Survive the Century (https://survivethecentury.net/), which was played by over 15,000 people in the first 2 weeks of launching.

Published
2021

49. A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

Author

Simpson, Nicholas P., Mach, Katharine J., Constable, Andrew, Hess, Jeremy, Hogarth, Ryan, Howden, Mark, Lawrence, Judy, Lempert, Robert J., Muccione, Veruska, Mackey, Brendan, New, Mark G., O'Neill, Brian, Otto, Friederike, Pörtner, Hans-O., Reisinger, Andy, Roberts, Debra, Schmidt, Daniela N., Seneviratne, Sonia, Strongin, Steven, van Aalst, Maarten, Totin, Edmond, Trisos, Christopher H., Simpson, Nicholas P., Mach, Katharine J., Constable, Andrew, Hess, Jeremy, Hogarth, Ryan, Howden, Mark, Lawrence, Judy, Lempert, Robert J., Muccione, Veruska, Mackey, Brendan, New, Mark G., O'Neill, Brian, Otto, Friederike, Pörtner, Hans-O., Reisinger, Andy, Roberts, Debra, Schmidt, Daniela N., Seneviratne, Sonia, Strongin, Steven, van Aalst, Maarten, Totin, Edmond, and Trisos, Christopher H.

Published
2021

50. A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

Author

Simpson, Nicholas P., primary, Mach, Katharine J., additional, Constable, Andrew, additional, Hess, Jeremy, additional, Hogarth, Ryan, additional, Howden, Mark, additional, Lawrence, Judy, additional, Lempert, Robert J., additional, Muccione, Veruska, additional, Mackey, Brendan, additional, New, Mark G., additional, O'Neill, Brian, additional, Otto, Friederike, additional, Pörtner, Hans-O., additional, Reisinger, Andy, additional, Roberts, Debra, additional, Schmidt, Daniela N., additional, Seneviratne, Sonia, additional, Strongin, Steven, additional, van Aalst, Maarten, additional, Totin, Edmond, additional, and Trisos, Christopher H., additional

Published
2021
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