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Adequate monitoring of river discharge is crucial for effective water resource management. However, this objective remains difficult to achieve in the context of large and ungauged river basins. This study assesses the performance of remote sensing applications for discharge monitoring in the lower reach of the Congo River, where daily discharge information is required to support many water resource operations. The approach is based on the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing imagery to produce a daily time series of a ratio of reflectance values (C/M) for discharge monitoring. The validation of the approach is performed based on three-year water level data collected at the outlet gauging site and limited in situ Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) cross-section measurements for high and low flow seasons. The simulated discharge closely matches the observed values and falls within acceptable ranges, with errors below 10% and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients ranging from 0.65 to 0.76 for ADCP and gauging station, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface water flooding (SWF) is a severe hazard associated with extreme convective rainfall, whose spatial and temporal sparsity belie the significant impacts it has on populations and infrastructure. Forecasting the intense convective rainfall that causes most SWF on the temporal and spatial scales required for effective flood forecasting remains extremely challenging. National-scale flood forecasts are currently issued for the UK and are well regarded amongst flood responders, but there is a need for complementary enhanced regional information. Here we present a novel SWF-forecasting method, FOREWARNS (Flood fOREcasts for Surface WAter at a RegioNal Scale), that aims to fill this gap in forecast provision. FOREWARNS compares reasonable worst-case rainfall from a neighbourhood-processed, convection-permitting ensemble forecast system against pre-simulated flood scenarios, issuing a categorical forecast of SWF severity. We report findings from a workshop structured around three historical flood events in Northern England, in which forecast users indicated they found the forecasts helpful and would use FOREWARNS to complement national guidance for action planning in advance of anticipated events. We also present results from objective verification of forecasts for 82 recorded flood events in Northern England from 2013–2022, as well as 725 daily forecasts spanning 2019–2022, using a combination of flood records and precipitation proxies. We demonstrate that FOREWARNS offers good skill in forecasting SWF risk, with high spatial hit rates and low temporal false alarm rates, confirming that user confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS would be suitable for meeting the user requirements of an enhanced operational forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Household water demand has increased dramatically in Kuwait over the last few decades, due to rapid population growth and changing lifestyles. Avoiding a water deficit through a supply‐side approach has been the default strategy in Kuwait, yet this approach is unsustainable, associated with declining groundwater levels, and reliance on desalination that results in major carbon emission and environmental impact and that takes a large and growing share of oil revenues. In this study, we forecast household water demand in Kuwait to 2050 under a Business‐As‐Usual (BAU) scenario and evaluate the economic and environmental impacts. A spatial microsimulation, constrained by the national population projection of the Kuwait Institute of Scientific Research (KISR), was developed to overcome data limitations in forecasting household demand. Results show a 45% increase in water demand by 2050, to 664.1 million cubic metres (MCM), relative to the 2019 base year. Annual production costs increase from 1.39 billion USD in 2019 to 1.99 billion USD by 2050, whilst carbon emissions increase from 10.85 to 15.54 million tonnes/year. These results should alert policymakers to the potential impacts of the growing water demand and provide further support for water conservation action to reduce demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface water flooding (SWF) is a severe hazard associated with extreme convective rainfall, whose spatial and temporal sparsity belies the significant impacts it has on populations and infrastructure. Forecasting the intense convective rainfall that causes most SWF on the temporal and spatial scales required for effective flood forecasting remains extremely challenging. National scale flood forecasts are currently issued for the UK and are well regarded amongst flood responders, but there is a need for complimentary enhanced regional information. Here we present a novel SWF forecasting method, FOREWARNS (Flood fOREcasts for Surface WAter at a RegioNal Scale), that aims to fill this gap in forecast provision. FOREWARNS compares reasonable worst-case rainfall from a neighbourhood-processed, convection-permitting ensemble forecast system against pre-simulated flood scenarios, issuing a categorical forecast of SWF severity. We report findings from a workshop structured around three historical flood events in Northern England, in which forecast users indicated they found the forecasts helpful and would use FOREWARNS to complement national guidance for action planning in advance of anticipated events. We also present results from objective verification of forecasts for 82 recorded flood events in Northern England from 2013-2022, and for 725 daily forecasts spanning 2019-2022, using a combination of flood records and precipitation proxies. We demonstrate that FOREWARNS offers good skill in forecasting SWF risk, with high spatial hit rates and low temporal false alarm rates, confirming that user confidence is justified, and that FOREWARNS would be suitable for meeting the user requirements of an enhanced operational forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]