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Summary Men diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer (PC) are increasingly electing active surveillance (AS) as their initial management strategy. While this may reduce the side effects of treatment for PC, many men on AS eventually convert to active treatment. PC is one of the most heritable cancers, and genetic factors that predispose to aggressive tumors may help distinguish men who are more likely to discontinue AS. To investigate this, we undertook a multi-institutional genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 5,222 PC patients and 1,139 other patients from replication cohorts, all of whom initially elected AS and were followed over time for the potential outcome of conversion from AS to active treatment. In the GWAS we detected 18 variants associated with conversion, 15 of which were not previously associated with PC risk. With a transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS), we found two genes associated with conversion (MAST3, p = 6.9 × 10−7 and GAB2, p = 2.0 × 10−6). Moreover, increasing values of a previously validated 269-variant genetic risk score (GRS) for PC was positively associated with conversion (e.g., comparing the highest to the two middle deciles gave a hazard ratio [HR] = 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.94–1.36); whereas decreasing values of a 36-variant GRS for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels were positively associated with conversion (e.g., comparing the lowest to the two middle deciles gave a HR = 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04–1.50). These results suggest that germline genetics may help inform and individualize the decision of AS—or the intensity of monitoring on AS—versus treatment for the initial management of patients with low-risk PC., Genetic factors may distinguish who should receive active surveillance (AS) versus treatment following prostate cancer diagnosis. We undertook the first study to investigate this and report novel variants, genes, and risk scores associated with AS outcomes. These findings could help inform and individualize the decision of AS.

Background Germline mutations in CHEK2 have been associated with prostate cancer (PCa) risk. Our objective is to examine whether germline pathogenic CHEK2 mutations can differentiate risk of lethal from indolent PCa. Methods A case-case study of 703 lethal PCa patients and 1455 patients with low-risk localized PCa of European, African, and Chinese origin was performed. Germline DNA samples from these patients were sequenced for CHEK2. Mutation carrier rates and their association with lethal PCa were analyzed using the Fisher exact test and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Results In the entire study population, 40 (1.85%) patients were identified as carrying one of 15 different germline CHEK2 pathogenic or likely pathogenic mutations. CHEK2 mutations were detected in 16 (2.28%) of 703 lethal PCa patients compared with 24 (1.65%) of 1455 low-risk PCa patients (P = 0.31). No association was found between CHEK2 mutation status and early-diagnosis or PCa-specific survival time. However, the most common mutation in CHEK2, c.1100delC (p.T367 fs), had a significantly higher carrier rate (1.28%) in lethal PCa patients than low-risk PCa patients of European American origin (0.16%), P = 0.0038. The estimated Odds Ratio of this mutation for lethal PCa was 7.86. The carrier rate in lethal PCa was also significantly higher than that (0.46%) in 32 461 non-Finnish European subjects from the Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC) (P = 0.01). Conclusions While overall CHEK2 mutations were not significantly more common in men with lethal compared to low-risk PCa, the specific CHEK2 mutation, c.1100delC, appears to contribute to an increased risk of lethal PCa in European American men.