1. Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections
- Author
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Morim, J, Hemer, M, Wang, XL, Cartwright, N, Trenham, C, Semedo, A, Young, I, Bricheno, L, Camus, P, Casas-Prat, M, Erikson, L, Mentaschi, L, Mori, N, Shimura, T, Timmermans, B, Aarnes, O, Breivik, Ø, Behrens, A, Dobrynin, M, Menendez, M, Staneva, J, Wehner, M, Wolf, J, Kamranzad, B, Webb, A, Stopa, J, and Andutta, F
- Subjects
Atmospheric Sciences ,Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience ,Environmental Science and Management - Abstract
Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.
- Published
- 2019