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Understanding and managing the response of marine ecosystems to human pressures including climate change requires reliable large-scale and multi-decadal information on the state of key populations. These populations include the pelagic animals that support ecosystem services including carbon export and fisheries. The use of research vessels to collect information using scientific nets and acoustics is being replaced with technologies such as autonomous moorings, gliders, and meta-genetics. Paradoxically, these newer methods sample pelagic populations at ever-smaller spatial scales, and ecological change might go undetected in the time needed to build up large-scale, long time series. These global-scale issues are epitomised by Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), which is concentrated in rapidly warming areas, exports substantial quantities of carbon and supports an expanding fishery, but opinion is divided on how resilient their stocks are to climatic change. Based on a workshop of 137 krill experts we identify the challenges of observing climate change impacts with shifting sampling methods and suggest three tractable solutions. These are to: improve overlap and calibration of new with traditional methods; improve communication to harmonise, link and scale up the capacity of new but localised sampling programs; and expand opportunities from other research platforms and data sources, including the fishing industry. Contrasting evidence for both change and stability in krill stocks illustrates how the risks of false negative and false positive diagnoses of change are related to the temporal and spatial scale of sampling. Given the uncertainty about how krill are responding to rapid warming we recommend a shift towards a fishery management approach that prioritises monitoring of stock status and can adapt to variability and change.

The South Sandwich Islands are an isolated, oceanic, volcanically formed archipelago in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. The complex bathymetry, coupled with the location in the marginal sea-ice zone and the relationship with the ACC makes the region both productive and biodiverse. Although remote, the region is not pristine and has been subject to historic exploitation of cetaceans and currently supports small, sustainably managed fisheries for two species of toothfish. This special issue brings together a suite of papers that further our knowledge of the region and will contribute to the next review of the South Georgia and South Sandwich Islands Marine Protected Area, which is due in 2023. The ten papers cover a broad range of subjects, adding to our knowledge of oceanography, pelagic and benthic ecology and of habitat use by mobile vertebrate predators such as cetaceans and penguins. Whilst the papers address some important knowledge gaps, they also highlight how little is known about this region and provide pointers to future research priorities.

This study was performed to aid the management of the fishery for Antarctic krill Euphausia superba. Krill are an important component of the Antarctic marine ecosystem, providing a key food source for many marine predators. Additionally, krill are the target of the largest commercial fishery in the Southern Ocean, for which annual catches have been increasing and concentrating in recent years. The krill fishery is managed by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), which has endorsed a new management framework that requires information about the spatial distribution and biomass of krill. Here, we use krill density estimates from acoustic surveys and a GAMM framework to model habitat properties associated with high krill biomass during summer and winter in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region, an area important to the commercial fishery. Our models show elevated krill density associated with the shelf break, increased sea surface temperature, moderate chlorophyll-a concentration and increased salinity. During winter, our models show associations with shallow waters (< 1500 m) with low sea-ice concentration, medium sea-level anomaly and medium current speed. Our models predict temporal averages of the distribution and density of krill, which can be used to aid CCAMLR’s revised ecosystem approach to fisheries management. Our models have the potential to help in the spatial and temporal design of future acoustic surveys that would preclude the need for modelled extrapolations. We highlight that the ecosystem approach to fisheries management of krill critically depends upon such field observations at relevant spatial and temporal scales.

Following the cessation of whaling, the southwest Atlantic humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) population is thought to be close to pre-exploitation size, reversing 20th century changes in abundance. Using a model-based approach applied to concurrently collected data on baleen whale abundance and Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) biomass in the South Sandwich Islands (SSI) region, we explore ecological interactions between these taxa. Krill biomass and baleen whale density were highest to the north and northeast of the SSI, where the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is deflected around the island chain. Humpback whale density was elevated at locations of krill biomass density >150 gm-2. Krill consumption by baleen whales was estimated at 19–29% of the available krill standing stock. We used historic whaling data to confirm the plausibility of these consumption rates and found evidence of rapid weight gain in humpback whales, such that blubber depleted during the breeding season could be restored in a much shorter period than previously assumed. Little is known about krill replenishment rates in the flow of the ACC, or about niche separation between recovering baleen whale populations; both factors may affect species carrying capacities and further monitoring will be required to inform the management of human activities in the region.

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Labrousse, S., Iles, D., Viollat, L., Fretwell, P., Trathan, P. N., Zitterbart, D. P., Jenouvrier, S., & LaRue, M. Quantifying the causes and consequences of variation in satellite-derived population indices: a case study of emperor penguins. Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation, (2021), https://doi.org/10.1002/rse2.233., Very high-resolution satellite (VHR) imagery is a promising tool for estimating the abundance of wildlife populations, especially in remote regions where traditional surveys are limited by logistical challenges. Emperor penguins Aptenodytes forsteri were the first species to have a circumpolar population estimate derived via VHR imagery. Here we address an untested assumption from Fretwell et al. (2012) that a single image of an emperor penguin colony is a reasonable representation of the colony for the year the image was taken. We evaluated satellite-related and environmental variables that might influence the calculated area of penguin pixels to reduce uncertainties in satellite-based estimates of emperor penguin populations in the future. We focused our analysis on multiple VHR images from three representative colonies: Atka Bay, Stancomb-Wills (Weddell Sea sector) and Coulman Island (Ross Sea sector) between September and December during 2011. We replicated methods in Fretwell et al. (2012), which included using supervised classification tools in ArcGIS 10.7 software to calculate area occupied by penguins (hereafter referred to as ‘population indices’) in each image. We found that population indices varied from 2 to nearly 6-fold, suggesting that penguin pixel areas calculated from a single image may not provide a complete understanding of colony size for that year. Thus, we further highlight the important roles of: (i) sun azimuth and elevation through image resolution and (ii) penguin patchiness (aggregated vs. distributed) on the calculated areas. We found an effect of wind and temperature on penguin patchiness. Despite intra-seasonal variability in population indices, simulations indicate that reliable, robust population trends are possible by including satellite-related and environmental covariates and aggregating indices across time and space. Our work provides additional parameters that should be included in future models of population size for emperor pe, Geospatial support for this work was provided by the Polar Geospatial Center under NSF-OPP awards 1043681 and 1559691. NCAR- PPC visitor funds and Ian Nisbet that supported the internship of LV. WWF-UK supported PNT and PTF under grant GB095701. DZ was supported by The Penzance Endowed Fund and The Grayce B. Kerr Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists. To SJ, ML, SL, LV, NSF OPP 1744794.