Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Trascasa Castro, Paloma, Maycock, Amanda C, Ruprich Robert, Yohan, Turco, Marco, Staten, Paul W, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Trascasa Castro, Paloma, Maycock, Amanda C, Ruprich Robert, Yohan, Turco, Marco, and Staten, Paul W
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) modulates El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. Here, we explore the effect of warm (AMV+) and cold (AMV-) AMV conditions on the austral summer teleconnection of ENSO to Australia using idealized simulations performed with the NCAR-CESM1 model. AMV+ strengthens the mean and extreme precipitation and temperature responses to El Niño in south-western Australia and weakens the mean precipitation and temperature impacts in north-eastern Australia. The modulation of La Niña impacts by AMV is asymmetric to El Niño, with a weakening of the mean and extreme precipitation and temperature responses in eastern Australia. Decomposing the total difference in ENSO response between AMV phases, we find that the signals are mainly explained by the direct AMV modulation of ENSO and its teleconnections rather than by changes in background climate induced by AMV. The exception is ENSO-driven fire impacts, where there is a significant increase in burned area in south-eastern Australia only when El Niño and AMV+ co-occur. However, modulation of ENSO between AMV+ and AMV- does offset ~37% of the decrease in burned area extent during La Niña summers. The altered surface climate response to ENSO in Australia by AMV is attributed to variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation. Under AMV+, there is increased subsidence over western Australia during El Niño associated with a westward shift of the local Walker circulation. A weakening of the upwelling branch of the local Hadley circulation over north-eastern Australia is responsible for the weakening of La Niña impacts in AMV+, accompanied by a strengthening of subsidence in south central Australia due to a weakening of the local Hadley circulation, amplifying La Niña impacts over this region. The results suggest the potential for AMV to drive multidecadal variability in ENSO impacts over Australia., P.T.-C. was supported by a PhD scholarship from the Natural Environment Research Council PANORAMA Doctoral Training Partnership (NE/S007458/1). Y.R.-R. received the support of a fellowship from ”la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434) and from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 847648. The fellowship code is LCF/BQ/PR21/11840016. A.C.M. was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 820829 (CONSTRAIN project) and The Leverhulme Trust (PLP-2018-278). M.T. acknowledges funding by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through the Ramón y Cajal Grant Reference RYC2019-027115-I and through the project ONFIRE, grant PID2021-123193OB-I00, funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. Computing facilities were provided by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center and the University of Leeds, Peer Reviewed, Postprint (author's final draft)