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¿Cómo afecta la aplicación imperfecta de la ley al tráfico de drogas, al despojo en las empresas, a la informalidad y a la producción agregada? Para cuantificarlo, se desarrolla un modelo ocupacional de equilibrio general en el que ante instituciones imperfectas hay lugar para el tráfico de drogas, delitos contra las empresas y evasión fiscal. Para calibrar el modelo, se utilizan datos detallados a nivel micro sobre victimización empresarial y cárteles para México. Se encuentra que la aplicación imperfecta de la ley genera pérdidas considerables en la producción derivadas de una mala asignación de las ocupaciones y de los recursos. Finalmente, usando simulaciones contrafactuales se calculan los efectos de políticas que buscan mejorar la asignación de los recursos. Con la aplicación total de la ley en el mercado de drogas ilegales, los trabajadores de ese sector se reubicarían en el sector productivo, y la producción agregada aumentaría. Sin delitos contra las empresas, que permitiría una reasignación del trabajo, capital y ocupaciones al sector formal, la producción aumentaría inclusive más. Sin embargo, los mayores efectos surgen por una disminución en la informalidad.

We examine forward guidance (with known and uncertain duration) in a New Keynesian model for an advanced small open economy, showing that the response of the economy to this policy depends, both quantitatively and qualitatively, on some structural features through calibrations for Sweden and Spain. In particular, an announcement of future expansionary policy is positively related to the exchange rate pass-through and is larger than in the closed economy counterpart because of a better inflation-output trade-off and the exchange rate channel. We also show that multiple equilibria could arise and that the real exchange rate is a key variable driving this result. In particular, the response of output and inflation is amplified when aggregate supply is negatively related to the real exchange rate. These results could not necessarily be extended to emerging market economies.

A huge literature analyzes the performance of simple rules in closed-economy models when the policy-maker observes only a noisy measure of the state of the economy. This paper extends the analysis to a small-open economy new keynesian model. Passing from a closed-economy model to an open-economy one, there is another simple policy rule available to the central bank, namely the exchange rate peg. Hence, evaluating the performance of simple rules allows us to assess if the choice of the exchange rate regime depends on the uncertainty about the true state of the economy. Evaluating the conduct of monetary policy in terms of a Taylor rule, this paper shows that not reacting to the exchange rate yields better outcomes in terms of a standard loss function and quantifies for which parameter configuration in terms of the reaction to the exchange rate and the domestic inflation rate, the fixed exchange rate regime is to be preferred. The analysis is done both with complete and with incomplete information.

Questo articolo analizza le determinanti e gli effetti di una stretta creditizia in Italia, all’interno della teoria monetaria della produzione elaborata da Augusto Graziani. Sosteniamo che la restrizione creditizia, tra le altre cose, dipende da un declino nella domanda aggregata. Dal punto di vista empirico, ciò è mostrato per Italia, Francia e Germania. Tuttavia, si evidenzia che una stretta monetaria decisa dalla Banca Centrale Europea – quindi comune ai tre paesi – non induce una riduzione statisticamente significativa del credito in Italia. Questo risultato probabilmente è causato della scarsa sostituibilità del credito bancario come fonte di finanziamento, dato che la struttura produttiva italiana è prevalentemente caratterizzata da piccole e medie imprese. This paper deals with the causes and the effects of a credit restriction in Italy, within the theoretical framework of the monetary theory of production, as elaborated by Augusto Graziani. It will be argued that credit restriction ultimately depends on the decline of aggregate demand. Empirically, this view is supported for Italy, France and Germany. However, a monetary policy tightening implemented by the European Central Bank does not lead to a significant credit reduction in Italy, probably due to the low degree of substitutability of bank financing, given that the Italian production structure is mainly characterized by small and medium enterprises. JEL codes: E12, E51, E52 Keywords: monetary theory of production, credit restriction, aggregate demand, Moneta e Credito, V. 71, N. 283 (2018)

This paper analyses the Italian economic stagnation in a Kaldorian framework. On the theoretical ground we propose an interpretation of the Italian economic stagnation based on the continuous reduction of aggregate demand and labour productivity. We also consider the role of the banking sector as a factor driving aggregate demand and, in turn, labour productivity. We estimate a VAR for the period 2002–2015 to analyse jointly the evolution of private consumption, real GDP, private investments, credit supply, labour compensation and productivity. Our main empirical finding is that aggregate demand and credit supply significantly affect the path of labour productivity, consistently with Kaldor–Verdoorn Law.