1. Congestion by accident? A two-way relationship for highways in England
- Author
-
Ilias Pasidis
- Subjects
050210 logistics & transportation ,Engineering ,Traffic congestion reconstruction with Kerner's three-phase theory ,business.industry ,ComputerSystemsOrganization_COMPUTER-COMMUNICATIONNETWORKS ,05 social sciences ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Poison control ,ComputerApplications_COMPUTERSINOTHERSYSTEMS ,Transportation ,Sample (statistics) ,Traffic flow ,Transport engineering ,Traffic congestion ,0502 economics and business ,Benchmark (computing) ,Mean reversion ,050207 economics ,business ,General Environmental Science ,Panel data - Abstract
This paper aims to estimate the causal effect of accidents on traffic congestion and vice versa. In order to identify both effects of this two-way relationship, I use dynamic panel data techniques and open access ‘big data’ of highway traffic and accidents in England for the period 2012–2014. The research design is based on the daily-and-hourly specific mean reversion pattern of highway traffic, which can be used to define a recurrent congestion benchmark. Using this benchmark, I am able to identify the causal effect of accidents on non-recurrent traffic congestion. A positive relationship between traffic congestion and road accidents would yield multiplicative benefits for policies that aim at reducing either of these issues. Additionally, I explore the duration of the effect of an accident on congestion, the ‘rubbernecking’ effect, as well as heterogeneous effects in the most congested highway segments. Then, I test the use of methods which employ the bulk of information in big data and other methods using a very reduced sample. In my application, both approaches produce similar results. Finally, I find a non-linear negative effect of traffic congestion on the probability of an accident.
- Published
- 2019