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IMPORTANCE: Diverse models have been developed to predict psychosis in patients with clinical high-risk (CHR) states. Whether prediction can be improved by efficiently combining clinical and biological models and by broadening the risk spectrum to young patients with depressive syndromes remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate whether psychosis transition can be predicted in patients with CHR or recent-onset depression (ROD) using multimodal machine learning that optimally integrates clinical and neurocognitive data, structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI), and polygenic risk scores (PRS) for schizophrenia; to assess models' geographic generalizability; to test and integrate clinicians' predictions; and to maximize clinical utility by building a sequential prognostic system. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This multisite, longitudinal prognostic study performed in 7 academic early recognition services in 5 European countries followed up patients with CHR syndromes or ROD and healthy volunteers. The referred sample of 167 patients with CHR syndromes and 167 with ROD was recruited from February 1, 2014, to May 31, 2017, of whom 26 (23 with CHR syndromes and 3 with ROD) developed psychosis. Patients with 18-month follow-up (n = 246) were used for model training and leave-one-site-out cross-validation. The remaining 88 patients with nontransition served as the validation of model specificity. Three hundred thirty-four healthy volunteers provided a normative sample for prognostic signature evaluation. Three independent Swiss projects contributed a further 45 cases with psychosis transition and 600 with nontransition for the external validation of clinical-neurocognitive, sMRI-based, and combined models. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Accuracy and generalizability of prognostic systems. RESULTS: A total of 668 individuals (334 patients and 334 controls) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 25.1 [5.

Background. Neurocognitive deficits are important aspects of the schizophrenic disorders because they have a strong impact on social and vocational outcomes. We expanded on previous research by focusing on the neurocognitive profiles of persons at high risk (HR) or ultra-high risk (UHR) for schizophrenic and affective psychoses. Our main aim was to determine whether neurocognitive measures are sufficiently sensitive to predict a group affiliation based on deficits in functional domains. Method. This study included 207 help-seeking individuals identified as HR (n=75), UHR (n=102) or at high risk for bipolar disorder (HRBip; n=30), who were compared with persons comprising a matched, healthy control group (CG; n=50). Neuropsychological variables were sorted according to their load in a factor analysis and were compared among groups. In addition, the likelihood of group membership was estimated using logistic regression analyses. Results. The performance of HR and HRBip participants was comparable, and intermediate between the controls and UHR. The domain of processing speed was most sensitive in discriminating HR and UHR [odds ratio (OR) 0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.28-0.78, p=0.004] whereas learning and memory deficits predicted a conversion to schizophrenic psychosis (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.25-0.87, p=0.01). Conclusions. Performances on neurocognitive tests differed among our three at-risk groups and may therefore be useful in predicting psychosis. Overall, cognition had a profound effect on the extent of general functioning and satisfaction with life for subjects at risk of psychosis. Thus, this factor should become a treatment target in itself

Background Neurocognitive deficits are important aspects of schizophrenic disorder because they have a strong impact on social and vocational outcomes. Previously it was assumed that cognitive abilities progressively deteriorate with illness onset. However, recent research results have contradicted this with observations of continuous or even improved performance in individuals at risk for psychosis or manifest schizophrenia. The objective of our longitudinal study was to examine neurocognitive functioning in help-seeking individuals meeting basic symptoms or ultra-high-risk criteria for schizophrenic psychosis (HRSchiz) or risk criteria for affective psychosis (HRBip). The progression of cognitive functioning in individuals converting to psychosis was compared with that of at-risk individuals who did not convert during the follow-up period. Method Data were available from 86 study participants who completed neurocognitive and clinical assessments at baseline and, on average, 12.8 (s.d.=1.5) months later. Neurocognitive measures were grouped according to their load in factor analysis to five cognitive domains: speed, attention, fluency, learning and memory, and working memory. Results Neurocognitive functioning in HRSchiz and HRBip individuals generally improved over time. Subjects converting to manifest psychosis displayed a stable neurocognitive profile from baseline to follow-up. Compared with non-converters, they had already demonstrated a significantly lower level of performance during their baseline examinations. Conclusions Our data provide no evidence for a progressive cognitive decline in individuals at risk of psychosis. In line with the neurodevelopmental model, our findings suggest that cognitive deficits are already present very early, before or during the prodromal stage of the illness

BACKGROUND Neurocognitive deficits are important aspects of schizophrenic disorder because they have a strong impact on social and vocational outcomes. Previously it was assumed that cognitive abilities progressively deteriorate with illness onset. However, recent research results have contradicted this with observations of continuous or even improved performance in individuals at risk for psychosis or manifest schizophrenia. The objective of our longitudinal study was to examine neurocognitive functioning in help-seeking individuals meeting basic symptoms or ultra-high-risk criteria for schizophrenic psychosis (HRSchiz) or risk criteria for affective psychosis (HRBip). The progression of cognitive functioning in individuals converting to psychosis was compared with that of at-risk individuals who did not convert during the follow-up period. METHOD Data were available from 86 study participants who completed neurocognitive and clinical assessments at baseline and, on average, 12.8 (s.d. = 1.5) months later. Neurocognitive measures were grouped according to their load in factor analysis to five cognitive domains: speed, attention, fluency, learning and memory, and working memory. RESULTS Neurocognitive functioning in HRSchiz and HRBip individuals generally improved over time. Subjects converting to manifest psychosis displayed a stable neurocognitive profile from baseline to follow-up. Compared with non-converters, they had already demonstrated a significantly lower level of performance during their baseline examinations. CONCLUSIONS Our data provide no evidence for a progressive cognitive decline in individuals at risk of psychosis. In line with the neurodevelopmental model, our findings suggest that cognitive deficits are already present very early, before or during the prodromal stage of the illness.

Background. Neurocognitive deficits are important aspects of the schizophrenic disorders because they have a strong impact on social and vocational outcomes. We expanded on previous research by focusing on the neurocognitive profiles of persons at high risk (HR) or ultra-high risk (UHR) for schizophrenic and affective psychoses. Our main aim was to determine whether neurocognitive measures are sufficiently sensitive to predict a group affiliation based on deficits in functional domains. Method. This study included 207 help-seeking individuals identified as HR (n=75), UHR (n=102) or at high risk for bipolar disorder (HRBip; n=30), who were compared with persons comprising a matched, healthy control group (CG; n=50). Neuropsychological variables were sorted according to their load in a factor analysis and were compared among groups. In addition, the likelihood of group membership was estimated using logistic regression analyses. Results. The performance of HR and HRBip participants was comparable, and intermediate between the controls and UHR. The domain of processing speed was most sensitive in discriminating HR and UHR [odds ratio (OR) 0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.28-0.78, p=0.004] whereas learning and memory deficits predicted a conversion to schizophrenic psychosis (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.25-0.87, p=0.01). Conclusions. Performances on neurocognitive tests differed among our three at-risk groups and may therefore be useful in predicting psychosis. Overall, cognition had a profound effect on the extent of general functioning and satisfaction with life for subjects at risk of psychosis. Thus, this factor should become a treatment target in itself

Background Neurocognitive deficits are important aspects of schizophrenic disorder because they have a strong impact on social and vocational outcomes. Previously it was assumed that cognitive abilities progressively deteriorate with illness onset. However, recent research results have contradicted this with observations of continuous or even improved performance in individuals at risk for psychosis or manifest schizophrenia. The objective of our longitudinal study was to examine neurocognitive functioning in help-seeking individuals meeting basic symptoms or ultra-high-risk criteria for schizophrenic psychosis (HRSchiz) or risk criteria for affective psychosis (HRBip). The progression of cognitive functioning in individuals converting to psychosis was compared with that of at-risk individuals who did not convert during the follow-up period. Method Data were available from 86 study participants who completed neurocognitive and clinical assessments at baseline and, on average, 12.8 (s.d.=1.5) months later. Neurocognitive measures were grouped according to their load in factor analysis to five cognitive domains: speed, attention, fluency, learning and memory, and working memory. Results Neurocognitive functioning in HRSchiz and HRBip individuals generally improved over time. Subjects converting to manifest psychosis displayed a stable neurocognitive profile from baseline to follow-up. Compared with non-converters, they had already demonstrated a significantly lower level of performance during their baseline examinations. Conclusions Our data provide no evidence for a progressive cognitive decline in individuals at risk of psychosis. In line with the neurodevelopmental model, our findings suggest that cognitive deficits are already present very early, before or during the prodromal stage of the illness