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A recurrent question is whether transient reactions to vaccines translate into better immune responses. Using clinical data from 2 large phase 3 studies of the recombinant zoster vaccine, we observed a small but statistically significant association between the intensity of a frequent side effect (pain) after vaccination and immune responses to vaccination. However, despite the statistical correlation, the impact on the immune response is so small, and the immune response in individuals without pain already sufficient, that pain cannot be a surrogate marker for an appropriate immune response. Reactogenicity cannot be used to predict immunity after vaccination.

Traditional vaccine efficacy trials usually use fixed designs with fairly large sample sizes. Recruiting a large number of subjects requires longer time and higher costs. Furthermore, vaccine developers are more than ever facing the need to accelerate vaccine development to fulfill the public's medical needs. A possible approach to accelerate development is to use the method of dynamic borrowing of historical controls in clinical trials. In this paper, we evaluate the feasibility and the performance of this approach in vaccine development by retrospectively analyzing two real vaccine studies: a relatively small immunological trial (typical early phase study) and a large vaccine efficacy trial (typical Phase 3 study) assessing prophylactic human papillomavirus vaccine. Results are promising, particularly for early development immunological studies, where the adaptive design is feasible, and control of type I error is less relevant.

The assurance of a future clinical trial is a key quantitative tool for decision-making in drug development. It is derived from prior knowledge (Bayesian approach) about the clinical endpoint of interest, typically from previous clinical trials. In this paper, we examine assurance in the specific context of vaccine development, where early development (Phase 2) is often based on immunological endpoints (e.g., antibody levels), while the confirmatory trial (Phase 3) is based on the clinical endpoint (very large sample sizes and long follow-up). Our proposal is to use the Phase 2 vaccine efficacy predicted by the immunological endpoint (using a model estimated from epidemiological studies) as prior information for the calculation of the assurance.

Abstract Objective In the ZOE-50 (NCT01165177) and ZOE-70 (NCT01165229) phase 3 clinical trials, the adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) demonstrated ≥90% efficacy in preventing herpes zoster (HZ) in all age groups ≥50 years. Given the increased HZ risk associated with certain underlying autoimmune diseases or their treatment regimes, we conducted a post hoc analysis of RZV’s efficacy against HZ and safety profile [specifically, the occurrence of serious adverse events (SAEs)] in ZOE-50/70 participants who reported pre-existing potential immune-mediated diseases (pIMDs) at enrolment and were not on immunosuppressive therapies. Methods Adults aged ≥50 (ZOE-50) and ≥70 (ZOE-70) years were randomized to receive two doses of RZV or placebo 2 months apart. In this subgroup analysis of participants with at least one pIMD at enrolment, the efficacy was calculated for two-dose recipients who did not develop confirmed HZ before 30 days post-dose 2. SAE occurrence was evaluated for all participants who received at least one dose. Results Of the 14 645 RZV and 14 660 placebo recipients from the ZOE-50/70 studies, 983 and 960, respectively, reported at least one pre-existing pIMD at enrolment and were included in these analyses. The most frequent pre-existing conditions were psoriasis, spondyloarthropathy and RA. Efficacy against HZ was 90.5% (95% CI: 73.5, 97.5%) overall with the lowest being 84.4% (95% CI: 30.8, 98.3%) in the 70–79-year-old age group. SAEs and fatal SAEs were similar between RZV and placebo recipients. Conclusion In ZOE-50/70 participants with pre-existing pIMDs, RZV was highly efficacious against HZ and SAE incidence was similar between RZV and placebo recipients. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, https://clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01165177 (ZOE-50), NCT01165229 (ZOE-70)., Graphical Abstract

Background This ongoing follow-up study evaluated the persistence of efficacy and immune responses for 6 additional years in adults vaccinated with the glycoprotein E (gE)-based adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) at age ≥50 years in 2 pivotal efficacy trials (ZOE-50 and ZOE-70). The present interim analysis was performed after ≥2 additional years of follow-up (between 5.1 and 7.1 years [mean] post-vaccination) and includes partial data for year (Y) 8 post-vaccination. Methods Annual assessments were performed for efficacy against herpes zoster (HZ) from Y6 post-vaccination and for anti-gE antibody concentrations and gE-specific CD4[2+] T-cell (expressing ≥2 of 4 assessed activation markers) frequencies from Y5 post-vaccination. Results Of 7413 participants enrolled for the long-term efficacy assessment, 7277 (mean age at vaccination, 67.2 years), 813, and 108 were included in the cohorts evaluating efficacy, humoral immune responses, and cell-mediated immune responses, respectively. Efficacy of RZV against HZ through this interim analysis was 84.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 75.9–89.8) from the start of this follow-up study and 90.9% (95% CI, 88.2–93.2) from vaccination in ZOE-50/70. Annual vaccine efficacy estimates were >84% for each year since vaccination and remained stable through this interim analysis. Anti-gE antibody geometric mean concentrations and median frequencies of gE-specific CD4[2+] T cells reached a plateau at approximately 6-fold above pre-vaccination levels. Conclusions Efficacy against HZ and immune responses to RZV remained high, suggesting that the clinical benefit of RZV in older adults is sustained for at least 7 years post-vaccination. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT02723773.

In two large clinical trials (ZOE-50 [NCT01165177] and ZOE-70 [NCT01165229]), two doses of the adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) demonstrated >90% efficacy against herpes zoster in adults ≥50 years of age. Solicited adverse events (AEs) were collected for 7 days post-each dose in a study sub-cohort. The incidence of reported solicited AEs was higher for RZV compared to placebo recipients. Since reactogenicity may contribute to a person’s willingness to be vaccinated, knowing about expected reactogenicity might help keep high compliance with the second dose. This post hoc analysis assessed the intensity of solicited AEs post-dose 2 reported to the same event’s intensity post-dose 1. Intensity was graded from 0 to 3, grade 3 indicating the highest severity. Of the vaccinees who did not experience a specific AE post-dose 1, 72.6–91.7% did not experience the same event after dose 2. Although the frequency of grade 3 AEs post-dose 2 was the highest in participants reporting the same AEs at grade 3 post-dose 1, 65.8–89.3% of vaccinees with grade 3 specific AEs post-dose 1 reported the same AEs at lower intensity post-dose 2. These data can help inform health-care professionals about the frequency and intensity of AEs post-dose 2 with respect to post-dose 1.

Background RZV (GSK) contains the varicella-zoster virus antigen glycoprotein E (gE) and the adjuvant system AS01B that enhances gE-specific immune responses through stimulating innate immunity. AS01B may contribute to the development of transient local or systemic post-vaccination reactions. A hypothesis that the magnitude of those reactions is predictive of immunogenicity and efficacy (i.e., “no pain, no gain”) remains untested. To evaluate potential correlations between RZV’s reactogenicity and immunogenicity in adults aged ≥ 50 years, a post-hoc analysis was conducted using data from 2 large phase 3 studies (NCT01165177, NCT01165229). Methods Reactogenicity was calculated as a single score per symptom (maximum grade recorded over 7 days post-vaccination). A global score obtained by adding each maximum severity for all reported symptoms (multivariate reactogenicity models) and a score for each reactogenicity symptom (univariate reactogenicity models) were estimated. Results The analysis included 904 and 147 RZV recipients with completed post-vaccination symptom diary cards and with anti-gE antibody results or cell-mediated immunity (CMI) results, respectively. The global score of reactogenicity post-dose 2 was significantly associated with anti-gE antibody response (p< 0.001, estimate 0.112) although the absolute antibody increase associated with reactogenicity was minimal (1.29-fold increase), while the association with CMI response was not statistically significant (p=0.073, estimate 0.230). There was a weak, but statistically significant association between gE-specific immune responses and the maximum pain post-dose 2 score (p=0.001, estimate 0.041), irrespective of post-vaccination time. Nevertheless, there are observations of immune responses in participants for whom pain was not reported. Conclusion A weak but statistically significant correlation was found between injection site pain intensity and immune responses in adult RZV recipients aged ≥ 50 years. However, participants reporting no pain were also able to mount a strong immune response, therefore pain cannot be a surrogate marker to inform on the level of immune response or on likelihood of being protected against herpes zoster. Funding GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA Disclosures Andrea Callegaro, PhD, GSK group of companies (Employee, Shareholder) David O. Willer, PhD, GSK group of companies (Employee, Other Financial or Material Support, Receive GSK shares as part of employment renumeration) Wivine Burny, PhD, GSK group of companies (Employee) Caroline Hervé, PhD, GSK group of companies (Employee) Joon Hyung Kim, MD, GSK group of companies (Employee, Shareholder) myron J. levin, MD, GSK group of companies (Employee, Research Grant or Support) Toufik Zahaf, PhD, GSK group of companies (Employee, Shareholder) Anthony L. Cunningham, F.A.H.M.S., MD, M.B.B.S., B. Med. Sci. (Hons), F.R.A.C.P., F.R.C.P.A., F.A.S.M., GSK group of companies (Grant/Research Support, Advisor or Review Panel member, Speaker’s Bureau) Arnaud Didierlaurent, PhD, GSK group of companies (Other Financial or Material Support, previous employee until 03/2020)Sanofi (Speaker’s Bureau)

Background Herpes zoster (HZ) risk appears to vary by sex and geographic ancestry/ethnicity. Methods In 2 randomized clinical trials, participants received 2 doses of adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) or placebo intramuscularly, 2 months apart. In this post-hoc analysis, we investigate efficacy of RZV against HZ and postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) by sex, geographic region, and geographic ancestry/ethnicity in ≥50-year-olds (ZOE-50: NCT01165177) and ≥70-year-olds (pooled data from ZOE-50 and ZOE-70: NCT01165229). Results Vaccine efficacy against HZ or PHN was similar in women and men. Across geographic regions, efficacy against HZ ranged between 95.7 and 97.2% in ≥50-year-olds, and between 87.3% and 95.1% in ≥70-year-olds; efficacy against PHN ranged between 86.8 and 100% in ≥70-year-olds. Across ancestral/ethnic groups, efficacy ranged between 88.1 and 100% against HZ and between 65.9 and 100% against PHN in ≥70-year-olds. Conclusions While the ZOE-50/70 studies were not powered or pre-designed for these post-hoc analyses, RZV appears efficacious against HZ and PHN irrespective of sex, region, or geographic ancestry/ethnicity.

In recent years, many vaccines have been developed for the prevention of a variety of diseases. Many of these vaccines, like the one for herpes zoster, are supposed to act in a multilevel way. Ideally, they completely prevent expression of the virus, but failing that they help to reduce the severity of the disease. A simple approach to analyze these data is the so-called burden-of-illness test. The method assigns a score, say W, equal to 0 for the uninfected and a post-infection outcome X > 0 for the infected individuals. One of the limitations of this test is the potential low power when the vaccine efficacy is close to 0. To overcome this limitation, we propose a Fisher adjusted test where we combine a statistic for infection with a statistic for post-infection outcome adjusted for selection bias. The advantages and disadvantages of different methods proposed in the literature are discussed. We compared the methods via simulations in herpes zoster, HIV, and malaria vaccine trial settings. In addition, we applied these methods to published data on HIV vaccine. The paper ends with some recommendations and conclusions.

Background: The ZOE-50 (NCT01165177) and ZOE-70 (NCT01165229) phase 3 clinical trials showed that the adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) was >= 90% efficacious in preventing herpes zoster in adults. Here we present a comprehensive overview of the safety data from these studies. Methods: Adults aged >= 50 (ZOE-50) and >= 70 (ZOE-70) years were randomly vaccinated with RZV or placebo. Safety analyses were performed on the pooled total vaccinated cohort, consisting of participants receiving at least one dose of RZV or placebo. Solicited and unsolicited adverse events (AEs) were collected for 7 and 30 days after each vaccination, respectively. Serious AEs (SAEs) were collected from the first vaccination until 12 months post-last dose. Fatal AEs, vaccination-related SAEs, and potential immune-mediated diseases (pIMDs) were collected during the entire study period. Results: Safety was evaluated in 14,645 RZV and 14,660 placebo recipients. More RZV than placebo recipients reported unsolicited AEs (50.5% versus 32.0%); the difference was driven by transient injection site and solicited systemic reactions that were generally seen in the first week post-vaccination. The occurrence of overall SAEs (RZV: 10.1%; Placebo: 10.4%), fatal AEs (RZV: 4.3%; Placebo: 4.6%), and pIMDs (RZV: 1.2%; Placebo: 1.4%) was balanced between groups. The occurrence of possible exacerbations of pIMDs was rare and similar between groups. Overall, except for the expected local and systemic symptoms, the safety results were comparable between the RZV and Placebo groups irrespective of participant age, gender, or race. Conclusions: No safety concerns arose, supporting the favorable benefit-risk profile of RZV. (C) 2019 GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Background In the pivotal clinical trials, ZOE-50 (NCT01165177) and ZOE-70 (NCT01165229), the adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) showed high efficacy against herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia. The incidence of reported solicited events was higher in RZV compared with placebo recipients. Methods In these phase III, observer-blind, placebo-controlled trials conducted in 18 countries, adults ≥50 years of age (YOA, ZOE-50) and ≥70 YOA (ZOE-70), randomized 1:1, received 2 doses of RZV or placebo 2 months apart. Injection-site and general events were solicited for 7 days after each dose via diary cards in a participant subset. For this post-hoc analysis, ZOE-50 and ZOE-70 data from participants having completed the diary cards for both RZV doses were pooled. The intensity of each solicited event after dose 2 was stratified by the intensity of the same event after dose 1. Results Solicited injection-site and general events were recorded for both RZV doses by 4,676 and 4,668 vaccinees, respectively (Figure 1). Of 1,235 vaccinees with no injection-site event at dose 1, 881 (71.3%) reported no injection-site event and 20 (1.6%) reported a grade 3 event after dose 2. A total of 433 (9.3%) vaccinees reported a grade 3 injection-site event, either after dose 1 or dose 2. Of 244 vaccinees with grade 3 injection-site events at dose 1, 79 (32.4%) also reported a grade 3 event after dose 2. Of 2,312 vaccinees with no general event at dose 1, 1,617 (69.9%) reported no general event and 67 (2.9%) reported a grade 3 event after dose 2. A total of 499 (10.7%) vaccinees reported a grade 3 general event, either after dose 1 or dose 2. Of 222 vaccinees with grade 3 general events at dose 1, 81 (36.5%) also reported a grade 3 general event after dose 2. In general, vaccinees who did not experience a certain event after dose 1, did not experience this event after dose 2 either. Most vaccinees reporting a specific event at high intensity after dose 1, reported the same event at a lower intensity (or not at all) after dose 2 (Figures 2 and 3). Conclusion While not powered to predict event intensity of the second RZV dose, our data provides an overview of event intensity after RZV dose 2 according to the intensity of the same event experienced after dose 1. Funding: GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

HPV-023 (NCT00518336; ClinicalTrial.gov) is a long-term follow-up of an initial double-blind, randomized (1:1), placebo-controlled study (HPV-001, NCT00689741) evaluating the efficacy against human papillomavirus (HPV)-16/18 infection and associated cyto-histopathological abnormalities, persistence of immunogenicity, and safety of the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine. Among the women, aged 15–25 years, enrolled in HPV-001 and who participated in the follow-up study HPV-007 (NCT00120848), a subset of 437 women from five Brazilian centers participated in this 36-month long-term follow-up (HPV-023) for a total of 113 months (9.4 years). During HPV-023, anti-HPV-16/18 antibodies were measured annually by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and pseudovirion-based neutralisation assay (PBNA). Cervical samples were tested for HPV DNA every 6 months, and cyto-pathological examinations were performed annually. During HPV-023, no new HPV-16/18-associated infections and cyto-histopathological abnormalities occurred in the vaccine group. Vaccine efficacy (VE) against HPV-16/18 incident infection was 100% (95%CI: 66.1, 100). Over the 113 months (9.4 years), VE was 95.6% (86.2, 99.1; 3/50 cases in vaccine and placebo groups, respectively) against incident infection, 100% (84·1, 100; 0/21) against 6-month persistent infection (PI); 100% (61·4, 100; 0/10) against 12-month PI; 97·1% (82.5, 99.9; 1/30) against ≥ ASC-US; 95·0% (68.0, 99.9; 1/18) against ≥ LSIL; 100% (45.2, 100; 0/8) against CIN1+; and 100% (–128.1, 100; 0/3) against CIN2+ associated with HPV-16/18. All vaccinees remained seropositive to HPV-16/18, with antibody titers remaining several folds above natural infection levels, as measured by ELISA and PBNA. There were no safety concerns. To date, these data represent the longest follow-up reported for a licensed HPV vaccine.

Background The risk of herpes zoster (HZ) has been reported to vary by sex and ethnicity. In 2 large-scale clinical trials, ZOE-50 (NCT01165177) and ZOE-70 (NCT01165229), the adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) demonstrated high vaccine efficacy (VE) against HZ and post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN). We present a post-hoc analysis of RZV efficacy against HZ and PHN in the ZOE-50/70 population stratified by sex, geographic region and geographic ancestry/ethnicity. Methods The ZOE-50 and ZOE-70 studies were phase III, observer-blind, placebo-controlled trials conducted across 5 geographic regions. Adults ≥ 50 years of age (YOA; ZOE-50) and ≥ 70 YOA (ZOE-70), randomized 1:1, received 2 doses of RZV or placebo 2 months apart. Here, VE against HZ by sub-population was estimated from the ZOE-50 population (≥ 50 YOA) and the pooled ZOE-50/70 population (pooled ≥ 70 YOA), and VE against PHN by sub-population was evaluated in the pooled ≥ 70 YOA. Results VE was evaluated in 7,340 RZV and 7,413 placebo recipients ≥ 50 YOA (mean age: 62.3 [RZV], 62.2 [placebo] YOA) and 8,250 RZV and 8,346 placebo recipients in pooled ≥ 70 YOA (mean age: 75.5 [RZV, placebo] YOA). VE against HZ and PHN was similar for women and men in the ≥ 50 YOA and pooled ≥ 70 YOA (Tables 1 and 2). Point estimates for VE against HZ by geographic region ranged from 95.7% to 97.2% in ≥ 50 YOA and from 87.3% to 95.1% in pooled ≥ 70 YOA (Table 1). Point estimates for VE against PHN by geographic region ranged from 86.8% to 100% in pooled ≥ 70 YOA. VE was similar across geographic ancestry groups in pooled ≥ 70 YOA: VE point estimates against HZ ranged from 89.6% to 100% and VE against PHN ranged from 87.5% to 100% (Tables 1 and 2). VE against HZ was 88.1% and against PHN was 65.9% in Hispanic participants in pooled ≥ 70 YOA (Tables 1 and 2). Conclusion Acknowledging the limitations including the post-hoc character of these analyses and the small number of participants and cases available, our data suggest that RZV is efficacious against HZ and PHN irrespective of sex, geographic region, geographic ancestry, and ethnicity. Funding: GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

An adjuvanted recombinant subunit candidate vaccine (HZ/su) containing varicella zoster virus envelope glycoprotein E was developed for the prevention of herpes zoster and its complications. This study evaluated safety and reactogenicity of HZ/su in an ethnic Japanese population. This was a phase I, open-label and single-center study conducted between March and November of 2010 in Australia. Twenty healthy ethnic Japanese subjects, aged 18–30 y and 50–69 y (1:1) were enrolled. Subjects were administered two doses of HZ/su vaccine according to a 0, 2-mo schedule. Local and general solicited symptoms were recorded for 7 d post-vaccination. Unsolicited symptoms were recorded for 30 d post-vaccination. Serious adverse events (SAEs), new onset of autoimmune disease (NOAD), other potential immune mediated disorders and HZ cases were recorded throughout the study period. All 20 subjects were included in the according-to-protocol cohort for safety. A total of 18 subjects were included in the according-to-protocol...

Background Vaccines are now available for the prevention of HPV-16/18-related cervical infections and pre-cancers, primarily targeting adolescent girls. Since the risk of HPV exposure potentially persists throughout a woman's sexual life, vaccine-derived immunity should be long-term. The current study, HPV-024 ( NCT00546078 , http://clinicaltrials.gov ), assessed the immune memory in North American women who received three doses of HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine 7 years earlier in HPV-001 ( NCT00689741 ). Methods Women vaccinated in HPV-001 received a 4th-dose of the HPV-16/18 vaccine (024-4DV group, N = 65). Post 4th-dose immune responses were compared with post 1st-dose immune responses in cross-vaccination controls (024-3DV group, N = 50). Reactogenicity was compared between the 4th-dose and the 1st-dose administration. Results Pre 4th-dose, 100% of subjects in the 024-4DV group remained seropositive for anti-HPV-16/18 antibodies (ELISA). Compared to pre 4th-dose, GMTs for anti-HPV-16 and anti-HPV-18 antibodies were respectively 9.3-fold and 8.7-fold higher at day 7, and 22.7-fold and 17.2-fold higher at month 1. Compared to post 1st-dose, GMTs for anti-HPV-16 and anti-HPV-18 were respectively 80.5-fold and 205.4-fold higher at day 7, and 11.8-fold and 20.5-fold higher at month 1. Furthermore, 68.2% and 77.3% of women had HPV-16/18 specific memory B-cells, respectively, pre 4th-dose, rising to 100% one month post 4th-dose vaccination. The 4th-dose was generally well tolerated. Conclusion A 4th-dose of HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine triggered a rapid and strong anamnestic response in previously vaccinated women, demonstrating vaccine-induced immune memory.

In the Phase III PATRICIA study (NCT00122681), the human papillomavirus (HPV)-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine (Cervarix(®), GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals) was highly efficacious against HPV-16/18 infections and precancerous lesions in women HPV-16/18 deoxyribose nucleic acid (DNA) negative and seronegative at baseline. We present further data on vaccine efficacy (VE) against HPV-16/18 in the total vaccinated cohort including women who may have been exposed to HPV-16/18 infection before vaccination. In women with no evidence of current or previous HPV-16/18 infection (DNA negative and seronegative), VE was 90.3% (96.1% confidence interval: 87.3-92.6) against 6-month persistent infection (PI), 91.9% (84.6-96.2) against cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)1+ and 94.6% (86.3-98.4) against CIN2+ [97.7% (91.1-99.8) when using the HPV type assignment algorithm (TAA)]. In women HPV-16/18 DNA negative but with serological evidence of previous HPV-16/18 infection (seropositive), VE was 72.3% (53.0-84.5) against 6-month PI, 67.2% (10.9-89.9) against CIN1+, and 68.8% (-28.3-95.0) against CIN2+ [88.5% (10.8-99.8) when using TAA]. In women with no evidence of current HPV-16/18 infection (DNA negative), regardless of their baseline HPV-16/18 serological status, VE was 88.7% (85.7-91.1) against 6-month PI, 89.1% (81.6-94.0) against CIN1+ and 92.4% (84.0-97.0) against CIN2+ [97.0% (90.6-99.5) when using TAA]. In women who were DNA positive for one vaccine type, the vaccine was efficacious against the other vaccine type. The vaccine did not impact the outcome of HPV-16/18 infections present at the time of vaccination. Vaccination was generally well tolerated regardless of the woman's HPV-16/18 DNA or serological status at entry.

We report efficacy and immunogenicity of the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine up to 7.3 years post-vaccination. The study was conducted in a population (N=433) of women enrolled in Brazilian centres from an initial placebo-controlled study. Women were aged 15-25 years at first vaccination. During the most recent year of follow-up, approximately 7 years after initial vaccination, no cases of infection or cytohistological lesions associated with HPV-16/18 were observed in the vaccinees. Vaccine efficacy (95% confidence interval) up to 7.3 years was 94.5% (82.9, 98.9) for incident infection, 100% (55.7, 100) for 12-month persistent infection and 100% (-129.8, 100) for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+. Antibody titres for total IgG and neutralising antibodies remained several folds above natural infection levels and >or=96% of women were seropositive. Vaccine safety was similar to placebo. This is the longest follow-up study for a licensed cervical cancer vaccine.

Prophylactic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines have to provide sustained protection. We assessed efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety of the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine up to 6.4 years.Women aged 15-25 years, with normal cervical cytology, who were HPV-16/18 seronegative and oncogenic HPV DNA-negative (14 types) at screening participated in a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled initial study (n=1113; 560 vaccine group vs 553 placebo group) and follow-up study (n=776; 393 vs 383). 27 sites in three countries participated in the follow-up study. Cervical samples were tested every 6 months for HPV DNA. Management of abnormal cytologies was prespecified, and HPV-16/18 antibody titres were assessed. The primary objective was to assess long-term vaccine efficacy in the prevention of incident cervical infection with HPV 16 or HPV 18, or both. We report the analyses up to 6.4 years of this follow-up study and combined with the initial study. For the primary endpoint, the efficacy analysis was done in the according-to-protocol (ATP) cohort; the analysis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 and above (CIN2+) was done in the total vaccinated cohort (TVC). The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00120848.For the combined analysis of the initial and follow-up studies, the ATP efficacy cohort included 465 women in the vaccine group and 454 in the placebo group; the TVC included 560 women in the vaccine group and 553 in the placebo group. Vaccine efficacy against incident infection with HPV 16/18 was 95.3% (95% CI 87.4-98.7) and against 12-month persistent infection was 100% (81.8-100). Vaccine efficacy against CIN2+ was 100% (51.3-100) for lesions associated with HPV-16/18 and 71.9% (20.6-91.9) for lesions independent of HPV DNA. Antibody concentrations by ELISA remained 12-fold or more higher than after natural infection (both antigens). Safety outcomes were similar between groups: during the follow-up study, 30 (8%) participants reported a serious adverse event in the vaccine group versus 37 (10%) in the placebo group. None was judged related or possibly related to vaccination, and no deaths occurred.Our findings show excellent long-term efficacy, high and sustained immunogenicity, and favourable safety of the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine up to 6.4 years.GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals (Belgium).

Low-field (0.02–4 MHz) proton nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) longitudinal relaxometry was applied to ultrahighly diluted aqueous solutions in order to detect physical modifications induced in the solvent by the dilution process. A mixture of silica-lactose (1.67·10−5 M silica, 2.92·10−2 M lactose) was initially solubilized in water or in saline, then submitted to eighteen iterative centesimal dilutions in water or in saline under vigorous vortex agitation and rigorously controlled atmospheric conditions, and compared to similarly treated pure water and saline as controls. Several independent series of samples were measured according to a blind protocol (total of 140 code-labelled samples). A slight frequency dispersion (about 4%) was found within the 0.02–4 MHz range, centered around 0.55 MHz, and ascribed to combined effects of silica and trace paramagnetic contaminants, both concentrated and in a reduced motion at the borosilicate wall tube interface. The iterative dilution-agitation process in pure water and saline induced no significant effect on relaxivity. Slightly increased relaxivity compared to solvent was found in the initial silica-lactose dilution (especially in saline, about 4%), which vanished unexpectedly slowly upon dilution, as adjusted to an arbitrary log-linear model. Statistical analysis was applied to succeed in discriminating solutions from their solvents beyond the 10−12 level of dilution. No clear explanation emerged, but post-experiment chemical analysis revealed high amounts (6 ppm) of released silica from the glass material used, with excess in silicalactose samples, and lower amounts of trace paramagnetic contaminants in highly diluted silica-lactose samples, which could provide a clue.

We report final event-driven analysis data on the immunogenicity and efficacy of the human papillomavirus 16 and 18 ((HPV-16/18) AS04-adjuvanted vaccine in young women aged 15 to 25 years from the PApilloma TRIal against Cancer In young Adults (PATRICIA). The total vaccinated cohort (TVC) included all randomized participants who received at least one vaccine dose (vaccine, n = 9,319; control, n = 9,325) at months 0, 1, and/or 6. The TVC-naive (vaccine, n = 5,822; control, n = 5,819) had no evidence of high-risk HPV infection at baseline, approximating adolescent girls targeted by most HPV vaccination programs. Mean follow-up was approximately 39 months after the first vaccine dose in each cohort. At baseline, 26% of women in the TVC had evidence of past and/or current HPV-16/18 infection. HPV-16 and HPV-18 antibody titers postvaccination tended to be higher among 15- to 17-year-olds than among 18- to 25-year-olds. In the TVC, vaccine efficacy (VE) against cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 or greater (CIN1+), CIN2+, and CIN3+ associated with HPV-16/18 was 55.5% (96.1% confidence interval [CI], 43.2, 65.3), 52.8% (37.5, 64.7), and 33.6% (−1.1, 56.9). VE against CIN1+, CIN2+, and CIN3+ irrespective of HPV DNA was 21.7% (10.7, 31.4), 30.4% (16.4, 42.1), and 33.4% (9.1, 51.5) and was consistently significant only in 15- to 17-year-old women (27.4% [10.8, 40.9], 41.8% [22.3, 56.7], and 55.8% [19.2, 76.9]). In the TVC-naive, VE against CIN1+, CIN2+, and CIN3+ associated with HPV-16/18 was 96.5% (89.0, 99.4), 98.4% (90.4, 100), and 100% (64.7, 100), and irrespective of HPV DNA it was 50.1% (35.9, 61.4), 70.2% (54.7, 80.9), and 87.0% (54.9, 97.7). VE against 12-month persistent infection with HPV-16/18 was 89.9% (84.0, 94.0), and that against HPV-31/33/45/51 was 49.0% (34.7, 60.3). In conclusion, vaccinating adolescents before sexual debut has a substantial impact on the overall incidence of high-grade cervical abnormalities, and catch-up vaccination up to 18 years of age is most likely effective. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT001226810.)

We propose a nonparametric test of independence of two autoregressive time series. The test statistic is based on lagged cross-correlation coefficients computed from autoregression rank scores , and extends the traditional correlogram-based method of Haugh (1976) . It is easily computable, asymptotically distribution-free, and, contrary to its traditional parametric competitor, it does not require any estimation of the unknown autoregression parameters. The test is applied in a study of the relations between outdoor temperature and the daily mortality related to cardio-vascular problems in Brussels, during the period 1980–1989.

Summary Background We evaluated the efficacy of the human papillomavirus HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine against non-vaccine oncogenic HPV types in the end-of-study analysis after 4 years of follow-up in PATRICIA (PApilloma TRIal against Cancer In young Adults). Methods Healthy women aged 15–25 years with no more than six lifetime sexual partners were included in PATRICIA irrespective of their baseline HPV DNA status, HPV-16 or HPV-18 serostatus, or cytology. Women were randomly assigned (1:1) to HPV-16/18 vaccine or a control hepatitis A vaccine, via an internet-based central randomisation system using a minimisation algorithm to account for age ranges and study sites. The study was double-blind. The primary endpoint of PATRICIA has been reported previously; the present analysis evaluates cross-protective vaccine efficacy against non-vaccine oncogenic HPV types in the end-of-study analysis. Analyses were done for three cohorts: the according-to-protocol cohort for efficacy (ATP-E; vaccine n=8067, control n=8047), total vaccinated HPV-naive cohort (TVC-naive; no evidence of infection with 14 oncogenic HPV types at baseline, approximating young adolescents before sexual debut; vaccine n=5824, control n=5820), and the total vaccinated cohort (TVC; all women who received at least one vaccine dose, approximating catch-up populations that include sexually active women; vaccine n=9319, control=9325). Vaccine efficacy was evaluated against 6-month persistent infection, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or greater (CIN2+) associated with 12 non-vaccine HPV types (individually or as composite endpoints), and CIN3+ associated with the composite of 12 non-vaccine HPV types. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00122681. Findings Consistent vaccine efficacy against persistent infection and CIN2+ (with or without HPV-16/18 co-infection) was seen across cohorts for HPV-33, HPV-31, HPV-45, and HPV-51. In the most conservative analysis of vaccine efficacy against CIN2+, where all cases co-infected with HPV-16/18 were removed, vaccine efficacy was noted for HPV-33 in all cohorts, and for HPV-31 in the ATP-E and TVC-naive. Vaccine efficacy against CIN2+ associated with the composite of 12 non-vaccine HPV types (31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, 66, and 68), with or without HPV-16/18 co-infection, was 46·8% (95% CI 30·7–59·4) in the ATP-E, 56·2% (37·2–69·9) in the TVC-naive, and 34·2% (20·4–45·8) in the TVC. Corresponding values for CIN3+ were 73·8% (48·3–87·9), 91·4% (65·0–99·0), and 47·5% (22·8–64·8). Interpretation Data from the end-of-study analysis of PATRICIA show cross-protective efficacy of the HPV-16/18 vaccine against four oncogenic non-vaccine HPV types—HPV-33, HPV-31, HPV-45, and HPV-51—in different trial cohorts representing diverse groups of women. Funding GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals.

Prophylactic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are now available and vaccination programs are being widely implemented, targeting adolescent girls prior to sexual debut. Since the risk of HPV exposure persists throughout a woman's sexual life, the duration of protection provided by vaccination is critical to the overall vaccine effectiveness. We report the long-term efficacy and immunogenicity of the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine (Cervarix (®) ) up to 8.4 y after the first vaccine dose. In an initial placebo-controlled study performed in US, Canada and Brazil, women aged 15-25 y with normal cervical cytology, HPV-16/18 seronegative by ELISA, DNA-negative for 14 oncogenic HPV types by PCR, received either the HPV-16/18 vaccine or placebo (n = 1,113). Subjects were followed up to 6.4 y after the first dose (n = 776). We report an additional 2-y follow-up for women enrolled from the Brazilian centers from the initial study (n = 436). During the current follow-up study (HPV-023, NCT00518336), no new infection or lesions associated with HPV-16/18 occurred in the vaccine group. Vaccine efficacy over the entire follow-up (up to 8.4 y) was 95.1% (84.6, 99.0) for incident infection, 100% (79.8, 100) for 6-mo persistent infection, 100% (56.1, 100) for 12-mo persistent infection and 100% (0, 100) for CIN2+ associated with HPV-16/18. All women in the vaccine group remained seropositive to both HPV-16/18, with antibody titers for total and neutralizing antibodies remaining several-folds above natural infection levels. The safety profile was clinically acceptable for both vaccine and control groups. This is, to date, the longest follow-up study for a licensed cervical cancer vaccine.

This pooled analysis of data from four Phase III clinical trials was undertaken to assess the correlation between levels of anti-human papillomavirus (HPV)-16/18 antibodies in serum and cervicovaginal secretions (CVS) in girls and women vaccinated with the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine. Serum and CVS samples were collected from a subset of women aged 10-65 years (N=350) at pre-specified time-points from 7 to 36 months post-vaccination. Anti-HPV-16/18 antibody levels in serum and CVS were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Pearson correlation coefficients between serum and CVS antibody levels, standardized for total immunoglobulin G, were calculated at each time-point in women with detectable antibodies in both serum and CVS. All subjects had seroconverted at Month 7 and remained seropositive through Month 36 for both antigens. Geometric mean titers of anti-HPV-16/18 antibodies in serum were substantially higher at all time-points than those in a control group of women who had cleared a natural HPV infection in another trial. In women with detectable antibodies in both serum and CVS, good correlation was seen between HPV-16/18 antibody levels at all time-points (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.84-0.92 for HPV-16 and 0.90-0.91 for HPV-18). The strong correlation between levels of HPV-16/18 antibodies in serum and CVS up to 36 months post-vaccination in girls and women vaccinated with the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine supports transudation of serum antibodies as the mechanism by which antibodies are introduced into CVS. These CVS antibodies may play a role in the protective efficacy of this vaccine.

Newly licensed vaccines against human papillomavirus (HPV) and hepatitis B (HBV), and several vaccines in development, including a vaccine against genital herpes simplex virus (HSV), contain a novel Adjuvant System, AS04, composed of 3-O-desacyl-4' monophosphoryl lipid A and aluminium salts. Given the background incidence of autoimmune disorders in some of the groups targeted for immunisation with these vaccines, it is likely that autoimmune events will be reported in temporal association with vaccination, even in the absence of a causal relationship. The objective of this integrated analysis was to assess safety of AS04 adjuvanted vaccines with regard to adverse events (AEs) of potential autoimmune aetiology, particularly in adolescents and young adults. All randomised, controlled trials of HPV-16/18, HSV and HBV vaccines were analysed in an integrated analysis of individual data (N = 68,512). A separate analysis of the HPV-16/18 vaccine trials alone was also undertaken (N = 39,160). All data were collected prospectively during the vaccine development programmes (mean follow-up of 21.4 months), and included in the analysis up to a pre-defined data lock point. Reporting rates of overall autoimmune events were around 0.5% and did not differ between the AS04 and control groups. The relative risk (AS04/control) of experiencing any autoimmune event was 0.98 (95% confidence intervals 0.80, 1.21) in the integrated analysis and 0.92 (0.70, 1.22) in the HPV-16/18 vaccine analysis. Relative risks calculated overall, for disease category or for individual events were close to 1, and all confidence intervals around the relative risk included 1, indicating no statistically significant difference in event rates between the AS04 and control groups. This integrated analysis of over 68,000 participants who received AS04 adjuvanted vaccines or controls demonstrated a low rate of autoimmune disorders, without evidence of an increase in relative risk associated with AS04 adjuvanted vaccines.

The immunogenicity and safety of an HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine were assessed in women aged 26–55 years and compared with women aged 15–25 years in a Phase III, non-randomised, open-label, age-stratified study. Overall the vaccine was well tolerated and 100% seropositivity was achieved 1 month after the third dose in all age groups. There was a high correlation between HPV-16 and HPV-18 antibody levels (IgG) in cervicovaginal secretions and sera, regardless of age. The HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine induces a robust and persistent immune response in women >26 years of age and generates antibodies that transudate through the cervix epithelium.

The Fisher information matrix is of fundamental importance for the analysis of parameter estimation of time series models. In this paper the exact information matrix of a multivariate Gaussian time series model expressed in state space form is derived. A computationally efficient procedure is used by applying matrix differential rules for the derivatives of a matrix function J=J(θ) with respect to its vector argument. An algorithm is given. It is sketched for the general state space structure without specifying a parametrization. It is then detailed for the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model, with a given parametrization, where explicit recurrent relations are developed.

In this paper, the computation of the exact Fisher information matrix of a large class of Gaussian time series models is considered. This class, which is often called the single-input-single-output (SISO) model, includes dynamic regression with autocorrelated errors and the transfer function model, with autoregressive moving average errors. The method is based on a combination of two computational procedures: recursions for the covariance matrix of the derivatives of the state vector with respect to the parameters, and the fast Kalman filter recursions used in the evaluation of the likelihood function. It is much faster than existing procedures. An expression for the asymptotic information matrix is also given., info:eu-repo/semantics/published

New non-parametric tests of the order of the autoregression in a time series model were recently developed by Hallin and Jureckova. The main tool of these tests is the autoregression rank scores. After a brief description of the tests, their performance on simulated AR(1) time series is illustrated with the normal, Laplace and Cauchy innovation densities and they are applied to series of daily maximum temperatures recorded in three stations in south Moravia. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.