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During 2010–20, period fertility in England and Wales fell to its lowest recorded level. The aim of this paper is to improve our understanding of the decline in period fertility in two dimensions: differentials by the education of a woman's parents (family background) and by a woman's education in relation to that of her parents (intergenerational educational mobility). The analysis finds a substantial decline in fertility in each education group, whether defined by a woman's parents' education alone or by a woman's own education relative to her parents' education. Considering parents' and women's own education together helps differentiate fertility further than analysing either generation's education in isolation. Using these educational mobility groups more clearly shows a narrowing of TFR differentials over the decade, but timing differences persist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Women's education is pivotal in addressing elevated fertility rates, particularly in developing nations. Despite declining fertility rates, Uganda sustains a high fertility rate of 6.2, surpassing the sub-Saharan Africa regional average of 4.6. This heightened fertility poses a significant obstacle to Uganda's sustainable development goals. This study investigates the relationship between female education and fertility preference among Ugandan women in 2006, 2011 and 2016. Methods: The study used data from the Uganda Demographic and Health Survey for 2006, 2011, and 2016, with a sample of 6,216, 5,205, and 10,741 women, respectively. A multivariable logistic model was utilized to establish the relationship between female education and fertility preference. Results: Findings revealed the existence of an inverse relationship between female education and fertility preference over the years 2006, 2011 and 2016 (Primary OR=0.67, 95% CI 0.53-0.84; OR=0.58, 95% CI 0.45-0.74; OR=0.70, 95% CI 0.57-086) respectively. For secondary or more education, OR =0.43, 95% CI 0.22-0.87; OR=0.56, 95%CI 0.34-0.92, OR =0.80, 95% CI 0.56-1.14) respectively. Fertility preference is inversely related to the mother’s income status, age and number of living children. Fertility preference is positively associated with the ideal number of children and contraceptive use. Conclusion: This study has shown that female education helps to manage women’s fertility preferences. Educated women can access information and get better employment to decide on the desired family size. The study advocates for the continued education of females to empower them in actively shaping their desired family size. It is recommended that government efforts to strengthen universal access to education at both primary and secondary levels. To cater for those outside the school setting, we recommend the strengthening of programmes on sexual reproductive health that should include an open discussion on the ideal family size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to examine the population development in TRC1, TRC2 and TRC3 level-2 regions in the period from 2007 to 2023. In the study, TURKSTAT data and descriptive method were used. The crude birth and death rates, total fertility rate and net migration rate data, which affect population growth, were also examined. TRC1, TRC2 and TRC 3 level-2 regions are located in the Southeastern Anatolia (TRC) level-1 region. Today, although the net migration rate is negative in all three regions, the population is generally increasing. This is due to the relatively high total fertility rate. Between 2007 and 2023, the population growth rate was 29% in the TRC1 region, 35% in the TRC2 region and 27% in the TRC3 region. While the annual population growth rate took positive values in three regions in the 2007-2022 period, this value took a negative value in the TRC1 level-2 region between 2022 and 2023 as a result of the increase in migration due to the effect of the February 6 earthquake. In other words, the population of the TRC1 region decreased between 2022 and 2023. It is noteworthy that in all three level-2 regions, the crude birth rate, total fertility rate and natural population growth rate have gradually decreased in recent years. Considering the recent trend, population growth is expected to continue in all three regions in the coming years. However, considering the trend of factors affecting population growth in recent years, on the other hand, it is predicted that this rate will gradually decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An intense period of human population expansion over the past 250 years is about to cease. Total fertility rates are falling dramatically all over the world such that highly industrialized nations, including China and the tiger economies of SE Asia, will see their populations decline significantly in the coming decades. The socioeconomic, geopolitical and environmental ramifications of this change are considerable and invite a multidisciplinary consideration of the underlying mechanisms. In the short-term, socioeconomic factors, particularly urbanization and delayed childbearing are powerful drivers of reduced fertility. In parallel, lifestyle factors such as obesity and the presence of numerous reproductive toxicants in the environment, including air-borne pollutants, nanoplastics and electromagnetic radiation, are seriously compromising reproductive health. In the longer term, it is hypothesized that the reduction in family size that accompanies the demographic transition will decrease selection pressure on high fertility genes leading to a progressive loss of human fecundity. Paradoxically, the uptake of assisted reproductive technologies at scale, may also contribute to such fecundity loss by encouraging the retention of poor fertility genotypes within the population. Since the decline in fertility rate that accompanies the demographic transition appears to be ubiquitous, the public health implications for our species are potentially devastating. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past half a century many countries have witnessed a rapid fall in total fertility rates, particularly in the world's most advanced economies including the industrial powerhouses of Eastern Asia and Europe. Such nations have now passed through the first and second demographic transitions and are currently exhibiting fertility rates well below the replacement threshold of 2.1, with no sign of recovery. This paper examines the factors responsible for driving these demographic transitions and considers their impact on both fertility and fecundity (our fundamental capacity to reproduce). I argue that because the first demographic transition was extremely rapid and largely driven by socioeconomic factors, it has had no lasting impact on the genetic/epigenetic underpinnings of human fecundity. However, the second demographic transition will be different. A series of conditions associated with low fertility societies, including relaxed selection pressure for high-fertility genotypes, the indiscriminate use of assisted reproductive technologies to treat human infertility, and environmental contamination with reproductive toxicants, may impact our genetic constitution in ways that compromise the future fecundity of our species. Since any fundamental change in the genetic foundations of human reproduction will be difficult to reverse, we should actively pursue methods to monitor human fecundity, as sub-replacement fertility levels become established across the globe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND Family-planning policies have focused on contraceptive approaches to avoid unintended pregnancies, postpone, or terminate pregnancies and mitigate population growth. These policies have contributed to significantly slowing world population growth. Presently, half the countries worldwide exhibit a fertility rate below replacement level. Not including the effects of migration, many countries are predicted to have a population decline of >50% from 2017 to 2100, causing demographic changes with profound societal implications. Policies that optimize chances to have a child when desired increase fertility rates and are gaining interest as a family-building method. Increasingly, countries have implemented child-friendly policies (mainly financial incentives in addition to public funding of fertility treatment in a limited number of countries) to mitigate decreasing national populations. However, the extent of public spending on child benefits varies greatly from country to country. To our knowledge, this International Federation of Fertility Societies (IFFS) consensus document represents the first attempt to describe major disparities in access to fertility care in the context of the global trend of decreasing growth in the world population, based on a narrative review of the existing literature. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE The concept of family building , the process by which individuals or couples create or expand their families, has been largely ignored in family-planning paradigms. Family building encompasses various methods and options for individuals or couples who wish to have children. It can involve biological means, such as natural conception, as well as ART, surrogacy, adoption, and foster care. Family-building acknowledges the diverse ways in which individuals or couples can create their desired family and reflects the understanding that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to building a family. Developing education programs for young adults to increase family-building awareness and prevent infertility is urgently needed. Recommendations are provided and important knowledge gaps identified to provide professionals, the public, and policymakers with a comprehensive understanding of the role of child-friendly policies. SEARCH METHODS A narrative review of the existing literature was performed by invited global leaders who themselves significantly contributed to this research field. Each section of the review was prepared by two to three experts, each of whom searched the published literature (PubMed) for peer reviewed full papers and reviews. Sections were discussed monthly by all authors and quarterly by the review board. The final document was prepared following discussions among all team members during a hybrid invitational meeting where full consensus was reached. OUTCOMES Major advances in fertility care have dramatically improved family-building opportunities since the 1990s. Although up to 10% of all children are born as a result of fertility care in some wealthy countries, there is great variation in access to care. The high cost to patients of infertility treatment renders it unaffordable for most. Preliminary studies point to the increasing contribution of fertility care to the global population and the associated economic benefits for society. WIDER IMPLICATIONS Fertility care has rarely been discussed in the context of a rapid decrease in world population growth. Soon, most countries will have an average number of children per woman far below the replacement level. While this may have a beneficial impact on the environment, underpopulation is of great concern in many countries. Although governments have implemented child-friendly policies, distinct discrepancies in access to fertility care remain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Knowledge of demographic trends is the basis for policy making, both economic, social, health, etc., as well as population policy. The Republic of Croatia has been facing demographic problems for many years, mainly an increase in the elderly population with a simultaneous decrease in the reproductive base and the number of young people. Croatia is one of the countries in the post-transition stage of population characteristics, characterized by the transition of the total fertility rate from a low positive rate to a level that no longer ensures the renewal of generations, and the mortality rate, which is determined by increasing life expectancy. In the Republic of Croatia, fertility is measured by the periodic total fertility rate, which indicates the average expected number of live births that a woman of fertile age (15 to 49 years) would give birth to. The total fertility rate of 2.1 children is often cited in the literature and among the public as the numerical level of generational change, while the Republic of Croatia has recorded a total fertility rate below this level for decades, i.e., 1.48 (2020). Another important characteristic of the posttransition period is late childbearing. The age limit for marriage and readiness to have a first child is increasing. The average age of a mother at the birth of her first child increased from 23.5 years (1960) to 29 years (2020), which significantly shortens a woman's reproductive time. Due to numerous factors, the number of live births has decreased from 95,560 children in 1960 to 35,845 children in 2020, a decrease of 59,715 live births. The subject of this work is a study of the reproductive determinants of population development in the Republic of Croatia, focusing on the determination of the factors influencing fertility and the quantitative presentation of demographic indicators. The aim of this work is to find the cause of declining fertility. Therefore, this work analyzes the factors that influence fertility. Due to the resulting birth deficit, it is necessary to take measures to promote births. Therefore, in the concluding remarks, recommendations are given for improving the demographic situation in the Republic of Croatia in the context of promoting births and increasing fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Space & Society / Tér és Társadalom is the property of Centre for Economic & Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study investigated the impact of financial development on the total fertility rate in Indonesia, hypothesizing that financial development significantly influences fertility rates. The objective was to ascertain the effects of financial development on Indonesia's total fertility rate, utilizing annual time series data from 1980 to 2021 obtained from the official websites of Bank Indonesia, the Central Bureau of Statistics, and the World Bank. The analysis employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method to examine the influence of the money supply in circulation (M2), Gross Domestic Product, and household consumption on the total fertility rate, with these variables serving as proxies for financial development. The study utilized a comprehensive data analysis approach, including stationary tests, cointegration bound tests, ARDL Model analysis for long-term and short-term effects, and classical assumption tests. The findings revealed that the money supply (M2) has a negative and significant impact on the total fertility rate, the Gross Domestic Product also negatively and significantly affects the total fertility rate, while household consumption positively and significantly influences the total fertility rate. These results underscore the multifaceted relationship between financial development and fertility trends in Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An intense period of human population expansion over the past 250 years is about to cease. Total fertility rates are falling dramatically all over the world such that highly industrialized nations, including China and the tiger economies of SE Asia, will see their populations decline significantly in the coming decades. The socioeconomic, geopolitical and environmental ramifications of this change are considerable and invite a multidisciplinary consideration of the underlying mechanisms. In the short-term, socioeconomic factors, particularly urbanization and delayed childbearing are powerful drivers of reduced fertility. In parallel, lifestyle factors such as obesity and the presence of numerous reproductive toxicants in the environment, including air-borne pollutants, nanoplastics and electromagnetic radiation, are seriously compromising reproductive health. In the longer term, it is hypothesized that the reduction in family size that accompanies the demographic transition will decrease selection pressure on high fertility genes leading to a progressive loss of human fecundity. Paradoxically, the uptake of assisted reproductive technologies at scale, may also contribute to such fecundity loss by encouraging the retention of poor fertility genotypes within the population. Since the decline in fertility rate that accompanies the demographic transition appears to be ubiquitous, the public health implications for our species are potentially devastating.

Abstract Background Environmental quality significantly affects various aspects of human existence. This study employs ecological footprint as a proxy to assess the impact of environmental quality on the TFR, measured as births per woman. This study investigates the extent to which ecological footprint indicators impact on the TFR in across 31 countries between from 1990 to 2017. Methods We gathered data on ecological footprints, specifically carbon, agricultural land, grazing land, forest products, and fisheries, from the Global Footprint Network. Information on the TFR, Human Development Index (HDI), and per capita Gross National Income (GNI) were sourced from the World Bank and the United Nations. We applied static panel and quantile regression models to scrutinize the connection between the ecological footprint and TFR, showing how the former influences the latter. Results The outcomes reveal that, in both fixed and random effects models, factors including HDI, carbon, and fishing grounds exert a negative influence on TFR, all at a significance level of p

The article aims at identifying the medium-term fertility trend in Latvia. The main research question is whether it is possible in the near future to increase fertility in Latvia, as planned in the “Strategy for the Reproduction of the Nation FAMILY - LATVIA - 2030 (2050)”. The authors conducted the mathematical analysis of fertility in Latvia for the medium-term period of 1970-2022 (53 years), which includes two decades of the so-called “Soviet era” and the period of independence after the collapse of the USSR. The study is based on the available data of the official Latvian statistics on the total fertility rate. The novelty of this interdisciplinary - demographic, economic and sociological - study is determined by the use of mathematical analysis to identify demographic trends, which is not typical for the publications of Latvian and foreign researchers. The study is also based on the theory of economic cycles to identify demographic fertility cycles and their phases in Latvia and to predict fertility rates in Latvia for the near future. Furthermore, the analysis of the sociological surveys data allowed to understand the main reason for the steady - in the medium-term perspective - linear decline in fertility in Latvia. This reason is value changes in the society, in which children are no longer at the center of the life value system of men and especially women in Latvia, i.e., are no longer considered necessary for the realization of their life goals and ambitions. Based on the results of the mathematical analysis of the medium-term fertility trend in Latvia, the authors believe that the decline in fertility in Latvia will continue for several more years before the bottom of the next demographic fertility cycle will be reached (and this bottom will be lower than the previous one, i.e., below 1.22 -1.25), and there will be an upturn in a linearly declining fertility trend. However, even this expected rise will not reach the previous peak; the next peak is likely to be below 1.74. Thus, the desired and even expected by the creators of the “Strategy for the Reproduction of the Nation” increase in fertility in Latvia to the level of 1.77 by 2027 is considered by the authors unattainable.

Background: Environmental quality significantly affects various aspects of human existence. This study employs ecological footprint as a proxy to assess the impact of environmental quality on the TFR, measured as births per woman. This study investigates the extent to which ecological footprint indicators impact on the TFR in across 31 countries between from 1990 to 2017. Methods: We gathered data on ecological footprints, specifically carbon, agricultural land, grazing land, forest products, and fisheries, from the Global Footprint Network. Information on the TFR, Human Development Index (HDI), and per capita Gross National Income (GNI) were sourced from the World Bank and the United Nations. We applied static panel and quantile regression models to scrutinize the connection between the ecological footprint and TFR, showing how the former influences the latter. Results: The outcomes reveal that, in both fixed and random effects models, factors including HDI, carbon, and fishing grounds exert a negative influence on TFR, all at a significance level of p < 0.01. Conversely, cropland and forest product footprints exhibited a favorable impact on the TFR (p < 0.01). Furthermore, GNI per capita positively affected the TFR in both models, with a p-value of 0.01. Quantiles regression analysis demonstrated that HDI and carbon footprint had a negative impact on TFR across all quantiles. This statistical significance is maintained for all quantiles, although it is only significant for the carbon footprint up to the 60th quantile, at p < 0.01. Conclusions: This study establishes a negative correlation between specific ecological footprint indicators, such as carbon and fishing grounds, and TFR. Conversely, there was a positive correlation between the footprint of forest products and the TFR. The primary conclusion drawn is that there is heterogeneity in the results regarding the relationship between ecological footprint and TFR. Moreover, the ecological footprint indicators considered in this study did not uniformly influence TFR. Each ecological footprint indicator exhibited distinct effects on the TFR, displaying either positive or negative correlation coefficients. Future research endeavors may delve into how ecological footprints impact other population dynamics, such as mortality and migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, a simple methodology to predict the total fertility rate of Afghanistan via a Bayesian statistical analysis method has been applied. R- statistical analysis tool is used for data analysis. To forecast, the ”bayesforecast” package is needed. It is a substitute package in R for the ”forecast” package in the traditional (frequentest) statistical method. The Bayesian data analysis using the specific case of the general auto-regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) is processed as follows; As the first step, the stationarity of the given data-set is assessed, the time series has been made stationary by taking differences. After fitting several models, as the most appropriate fitted model, the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) model has been fitted to the data. The accuracy of the fitted model is examined, and thereafter, the developed model is analyzed. The posterior computation is done, using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method. The method ultimately focuses on drawing relevant inferences including the 16 years prediction, and the results are; in general, found to be satisfactory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the impact of financial development on the total fertility rate in Indonesia, hypothesizing that financial development significantly influences fertility rates. The objective was to ascertain the effects of financial development on Indonesia's total fertility rate, utilizing annual time series data from 1980 to 2021 obtained from the official websites of Bank Indonesia, the Central Bureau of Statistics, and the World Bank. The analysis employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method to examine the influence of the money supply in circulation (M2), Gross Domestic Product, and household consumption on the total fertility rate, with these variables serving as proxies for financial development. The study utilized a comprehensive data analysis approach, including stationary tests, cointegration bound tests, ARDL Model analysis for long-term and short-term effects, and classical assumption tests. The findings revealed that the money supply (M2) has a negative and significant impact on the total fertility rate, the Gross Domestic Product also negatively and significantly affects the total fertility rate, while household consumption positively and significantly influences the total fertility rate. These results underscore the multifaceted relationship between financial development and fertility trends in Indonesia.

The size of the world’s population has profound implications for demand for food, energy and resources, land use change and greenhouse gas emissions. This study examines why most population projections have underestimated world population growth, and the implications for actions required to achieve sustainable societies. The main determinant of future population is family size choices. Population projections by different research groups embed different assumptions about drivers of fertility decline. The common assumptions that fertility decline is driven by economic betterment, urbanisation or education levels are not well supported in historical evidence. In contrast, voluntary family planning provision and promotion achieved rapid fertility decline, even in poor, rural and illiterate communities. Projections based on education and income as drivers of fertility decline ignore the reverse causation, that lowering fertility through family planning interventions enabled economic advancement and improved women’s education access. In recent decades, support for family planning has waned, and global fertility decline has decelerated as a result. Projections calibrated across the decades of strong family planning support have not acknowledged this change and are consequently underestimating global population growth. Scenarios used to model sustainable futures have used overly optimistic population projections while inferring these outcomes will happen without targeted measures to bring them about. Unless political will is rapidly restored for voluntary family planning programs, the global population will almost certainly exceed 10 billion, rendering sustainable food security and a safe climate unachievable.

Abstract Fertility in Romania dropped rapidly after the collapse of the communist rule, placing the country among those with low fertility rates, and started to grow again after the year 2014. The paper approaches the dynamic of fertility in Romania, focusing on the period when fertility grew again. Using data from the semi-panel conducted by World Values Survey Romanian in 2012 and 2018, the paper looks at the changes in fertility in Romania based on micro-level data and studying trends in cohort fertility among women of fertile age and the drivers of these changes. The cohort analysis indicates that birth postponement is the main mechanism leading to the growth in fertility in Romania in the past decade. At the same time, the results provide support to the uncertainty explanation, the fear of job losing having negative impact on the number of children born by a woman. Altogether, the results suggest that Romania does not yet reach the second gender revolution, that has gender equality in private sphere at its core, fertility decision relying on traditional factors such as economic uncertainty and patriarchal model, with the male partner being the main breadwinner.

Background: In a survey on fertility knowledge published in 2013 (Cardiff Fertility Knowledge Scale [CFKS]), Japan ranked 78th among 79 countries. This finding encouraged the Japanese government to revise the curriculum for sex education in 2015. The present study was conducted to assess the current fertility knowledge of senior high school students, infertile patients, and medical staff at an infertility clinic in Japan. Methods: A cross-sectional study of 899 senior high school students (average age 16.8 years), 461 infertile female patients (36.9 years), and 127 medical staff at our infertility clinic (33.1 years) was performed between July 2020 and January 2021. The questionnaire included 13 items from CFKS and our 12 original items on fertility and infertility treatments. Results: The positive response rates of senior high school students, infertile female patients, and medical staff were 69.4, 86.9, and 86.5% for CFKS, respectively, and were similar for all 25 items. The positive response rate was higher in all three groups than in the surveys conducted in 2013 (36.0%) and 2015 (44.4%) in Japan. Conclusions: Although sex education may have improved these scores, other resources (media and social media) may also be responsible for this increase.

Abstract Background Pakistan has an inadequate vital event registration system, leading to fewer than half of all births being registered, and this issue is further exacerbated by systematic recall errors and omission of births. This study aims to evaluate direct and indirect methods of fertility estimation to analyze the trends and patterns of fertility rates in Pakistan from 1990 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach Indirect methods are utilized in this study to evaluate the direction and extent of changes in total and age-specific fertility rates, and these findings are compared to direct estimates. The study draws data on livebirths from four waves of the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey that took place between 1990 and 2018. To ensure the quality of data, graphical methods and Whipple and Myers indices are employed. Additionally, the Brass Relational Gompertz model was used to analyze the data. Results The Relational Gompertz model revealed that total fertility rates (TFRs) were higher than direct estimates by 0.4 children and age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) were higher for all age groups except the oldest. The difference was more significant among younger women aged 15–24, and less so for age groups 29 and above. The gap in estimated fertility between direct and indirect methods decreased with age. Conclusion The indirect method is an invaluable tool in situations where direct measurement of fertility rates is challenging or impossible. By utilizing this method, policymakers can gain important insights into the fertility patterns and trends of a population, which is crucial for making informed decisions on fertility planning.

Although the global population continues to increase, the total fertility rate in many high-income countries (HICs) is below replacement, a trend apparent over several decades. The timing and pace of this change will shape the age distribution in these countries, leading to an increasing proportion of older people. The well-established links of the "demographic transition" between improving female education and improved access to contraception continue to drive down the fertility rates in low-/middle-income countries. However, changes in the age distribution will not be as marked as in HICs in the coming decades. These relationships may now be changing in some HICs with greater prosperity at both the personal (in some sectors of society) and national levels, linked to an increase in the total fertility rates despite continuing trends toward older age at first birth. Key drivers in these countries include improved provision of free/low-cost childcare, paid parental leave, and higher paternal contributions to childcare. However, there is also an increase in the number of women who do not have children or who may be unable to complete their family plans. Coronavirus disease 2019 and environmental factors, including the increasing prevalence of obesity, add to pressures on the fertility rates. Variable knowledge of the realities of female reproductive aging, particularly by men, is also a contributing factor, and this complex mix has fueled the increase in the number of elective egg freezing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The size of the world's population has profound implications for demand for food, energy and resources, land use change and greenhouse gas emissions. This study examines why most population projections have underestimated world population growth, and the implications for actions required to achieve sustainable societies. The main determinant of future population is family size choices. Population projections by different research groups embed different assumptions about drivers of fertility decline. The common assumptions that fertility decline is driven by economic betterment, urbanisation or education levels are not well supported in historical evidence. In contrast, voluntary family planning provision and promotion achieved rapid fertility decline, even in poor, rural and illiterate communities. Projections based on education and income as drivers of fertility decline ignore the reverse causation, that lowering fertility through family planning interventions enabled economic advancement and improved women's education access. In recent decades, support for family planning has waned, and global fertility decline has decelerated as a result. Projections calibrated across the decades of strong family planning support have not acknowledged this change and are consequently underestimating global population growth. Scenarios used to model sustainable futures have used overly optimistic population projections while inferring these outcomes will happen without targeted measures to bring them about. Unless political will is rapidly restored for voluntary family planning programs, the global population will almost certainly exceed 10 billion, rendering sustainable food security and a safe climate unachievable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past half a century many countries have witnessed a rapid fall in total fertility rates, particularly in the world’s most advanced economies including the industrial powerhouses of Eastern Asia and Europe. Such nations have now passed through the first and second demographic transitions and are currently exhibiting fertility rates well below the replacement threshold of 2.1, with no sign of recovery. This paper examines the factors responsible for driving these demographic transitions and considers their impact on both fertility and fecundity (our fundamental capacity to reproduce). I argue that because the first demographic transition was extremely rapid and largely driven by socioeconomic factors, it has had no lasting impact on the genetic/epigenetic underpinnings of human fecundity. However, the second demographic transition will be different. A series of conditions associated with low fertility societies, including relaxed selection pressure for high-fertility genotypes, the indiscriminate use of assisted reproductive technologies to treat human infertility, and environmental contamination with reproductive toxicants, may impact our genetic constitution in ways that compromise the future fecundity of our species. Since any fundamental change in the genetic foundations of human reproduction will be difficult to reverse, we should actively pursue methods to monitor human fecundity, as sub-replacement fertility levels become established across the globe.

Background: Pakistan has an inadequate vital event registration system, leading to fewer than half of all births being registered, and this issue is further exacerbated by systematic recall errors and omission of births. This study aims to evaluate direct and indirect methods of fertility estimation to analyze the trends and patterns of fertility rates in Pakistan from 1990 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach: Indirect methods are utilized in this study to evaluate the direction and extent of changes in total and age-specific fertility rates, and these findings are compared to direct estimates. The study draws data on livebirths from four waves of the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey that took place between 1990 and 2018. To ensure the quality of data, graphical methods and Whipple and Myers indices are employed. Additionally, the Brass Relational Gompertz model was used to analyze the data. Results: The Relational Gompertz model revealed that total fertility rates (TFRs) were higher than direct estimates by 0.4 children and age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) were higher for all age groups except the oldest. The difference was more significant among younger women aged 15–24, and less so for age groups 29 and above. The gap in estimated fertility between direct and indirect methods decreased with age. Conclusion: The indirect method is an invaluable tool in situations where direct measurement of fertility rates is challenging or impossible. By utilizing this method, policymakers can gain important insights into the fertility patterns and trends of a population, which is crucial for making informed decisions on fertility planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fertility in Romania dropped rapidly after the collapse of the communist rule, placing the country among those with low fertility rates, and started to grow again after the year 2014. The paper approaches the dynamic of fertility in Romania, focusing on the period when fertility grew again. Using data from the semi-panel conducted by World Values Survey Romanian in 2012 and 2018, the paper looks at the changes in fertility in Romania based on micro-level data and studying trends in cohort fertility among women of fertile age and the drivers of these changes. The cohort analysis indicates that birth postponement is the main mechanism leading to the growth in fertility in Romania in the past decade. At the same time, the results provide support to the uncertainty explanation, the fear of job losing having negative impact on the number of children born by a woman. Altogether, the results suggest that Romania does not yet reach the second gender revolution, that has gender equality in private sphere at its core, fertility decision relying on traditional factors such as economic uncertainty and patriarchal model, with the male partner being the main breadwinner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Social Policy Studies / Sosyal Politika Çalismalari Dergisi is the property of Journal of Social Policy Studies / Sosyal Politika Calismalari Dergisi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The paper investigates the impact of total fertility rate as one of the basic demographic variables on economic growth per capita concerning six selected transition countries (including the five countries of the Western Balkans: Serbia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, and Croatia as a member of the European Union), from 2000 to 2018. The fundamental idea of the research is the view discussed in the recent literature and it concerns the reduction of the total fertility rate as a burning problem of a large number of developed modern economies. Inspired by the question of whether such an attitude is relevant for a group of small European transition countries, an econometric model was constructed , as a framework for the application of statistical analysis of multiple regression. The results of empirical research showed that if the rate of total fertility increased by 0.1% in one of the analyzed countries, the GDP growth rate per capita for this country would fall by 0.53 percentage points in the same year of the period under review.

Abstract The total fertility rate in Iran has declined to below replacement level recently, and a new approach has been taken to tackle this issue. Thus, this study aimed to identify the involved stakeholders and their characteristics in the new population policy change in Iran. We employed a qualitative approach using the purposive sampling of key informants and the identification of relevant documents. The main stakeholders were divided into seven key groups: religious, political, governmental, professional, international sectors, media, and nongovernmental organizations. In addition, there was no centralized, clear, and comprehensive mechanism to guide the activities of stakeholders to coordinate and bring the total fertility rate to the replacement level in Iran. Despite the importance of the new population policy in Iran, in recent years, we still experience dispersion and inconsistency among various actors in this area. It is imperative to go through a consensus and coalition at macro-level authorities alongside evidenced-based population policymaking.

ObjectiveTo learn about the fertility level and gender changes of household registration in Qingpu District from 2012 to 2020， and to provide a theoretical basis for the population development planning.MethodsBirth information of newborns with household registration in Qingpu District from 2012 to 2020 was collected through the Shanghai birth medical certificate information system and the public security department. Access 2003 software was used to combine the data，and Excel 2010 software for statistical analysis.ResultsThere were 28 284 live births in household registered in Qingpu District from 2012 to 2020. The crude birth rate was 6.57‰，and the total fertility rate was 30.29‰. Comprehensive fertility rate was 1.12. The sex ratio at birth was 105.49.ConclusionThere is a low fertility level in Qingpu District. The proportion of the second child increased year by year but decreased after 2017. Negative population growth is intensified year by year.

Abstract Objectives Along with the development of the times and progress of the society, the total fertility rate (TFR) markedly changed in each country. Therefore, it is critical to describe the trend of TFR and explore its influencing factors. However, previous studies did not consider the time lag and cumulative effect in the associations between the influencing factors and TFR. Thus, our study aimed to analyze the associations from a new dimension. Methods The study was employed using national-level data from the World Bank and United Nations Development Programme. Distributed lag non-linear models with 5-year lag were used to examine the independent associations between the relevant factors and TFR. Results The cumulative exposure-TFR curves were inverted U-shaped for log gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and life expectancy at birth, while the cumulative exposure-response curves were approximately linear for female expected years of schooling and human development index (HDI). However, it is worth noting that in the developed regions, TFR increased slightly with the high level of GDP per capita, female expected years of schooling and HDI. Conclusions Nowadays, with the growth of GDP per capita, life expectancy at birth, female expected years of schooling and HDI, TFR are on a drastic downward trend in most regions. Besides, with the development of society, when levels of the factors continued to increase, TFR also showed a slight rebound. Therefore, governments, especially those in developing countries, should take measures to stimulate fertility and deal with a series of problems caused by declining TFR.

Background: Following the 2008 financial crisis, the Icelandic Government reduced the maximum parental payment until 2016, when it was increased again. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of the changes in the maximum parental leave payment in Iceland during 2009 and 2016 on total fertility rates and birth rates during 2002–2019. Methods: Publicly available aggregated data on yearly total fertility rates, birth rates, unemployment rates, gross domestic product (GDP) and maximum parental leave payments were obtained for 2002–2019. Segmented regression analyses were used to measure the impact of changes in parental leave payment on term births for the two periods in which changes were implemented (2008–2010 and 2016–2017). Results: The decrease in maximum parental leave payment during 2008–2010 was associated with a 15% decrease in the estimated total fertility rate compared with the expected rate (−15.7%; 95% CI −22.7 to −8.7), whereas the increased payments during 2016–2017 indicated a possible 3% increase in the estimated total fertility rate (3.2%; 95% CI −29.1 to 35.5). Neither adjustment for the unemployment rate nor the GDP appeared to affect these results. The overall birth rate followed a similar trend and was most pronounced for women aged 25–34 years. Conclusions: These results suggest that total fertility rates in Iceland may have been affected by changes in the maximum parental leave payment that occurred in 2009 and 2016, although the effect of the 2008 financial crisis cannot be excluded despite adjustment for the unemployment rate and GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uttar Pradesh (UP), with more than 220 million people, is the most populous state in India. Despite a high unmet need for modern family planning methods, the state has experienced a substantial decline in fertility. India has also seen a decline during this period which can be attributed to the increased prevalence of modern methods of family planning, particularly female sterilisation, but in UP, the corresponding increase was marginal. At the same time, Traditional Family Planning Methods (TMs) increased significantly in UP in contrast to India, where it was marginal. The trends in UP raise questions about the drivers in fertility decline and question the conventional wisdom that fertility declines are driven by modern methods, and the paper aims to understand this paradox. Fertility trends and family planning practices in UP were analysed using data from different rounds of National Family Health Surveys (NFHS) and the two UP Family Planning Surveys conducted by the UP Technical Support Unit to understand whether the use of TMs played a role in the fertility decline. As per NFHS-4, the prevalence of TM in India (6%) was less than half that of UP (13%). The UP Family Planning Survey in 25 High Priority Districts estimated that 22% of women used TMs. The analysis also suggested that availability and accessibiility of modern contraceptives might have played a role in the increased use of TMs in UP. If there are still couples who make a choice in favour of TMs, they should be well informed about the risks associated with the use of traditional methods as higher failure rate is observed among TMs users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Estonia where the population size is quite small (less than a million ethnic Estonians) the low birth rate has been a problem throughout known history. In Estonia as in other Eastern European countries, the so-called transition shock appeared in the 1990s after regaining independence. As a result of the shock, the birth rate fell sharply; the number of births in 1994-2000 was twice less than the number of births ten years earlier, in 1984-1990. Intensive migration also lasted for about 25 years, and, as a result, the population of Estonia decreased by more than for 250 000 people (one sixth of the population). The ethnic structure of the population of Estonia also changed. Depending on the direction and volume of foreign migration, the share of ethnic Estonians in the population, which was 61.5% in 1991, increased to 67.9% by the turn of the century. Postponing of births has been an important trend throughout the world, including in Estonia, in recent decades. In Estonia the average age of mothers who gave birth increased from 1991 to 2021 by almost 6 years. This means that, for 30 years, nearly a fifth of children were not born each year. The total fertility rate depends on the change in the average childbearing age. When the childbearing age increases (which has been happening in Estonia during the last 30 years), the total fertility rate (TFR) underestimates the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime. Although TFR is relatively low in Estonia now, oscillating between 1.5 and 1.7, this does not mean that the average number of children born by a woman is so low. If a cohort of women (e.g., women born 45-49 years ago) has passed the fertile age, it is possible to determine the average number of children whom they actually gave birth during their lifetime. This indicator gives a much more optimistic picture about the fertility behaviour of Estonian women than TFR. Ethnic Estonian women are more active in giving birth than the women of other ethnic origins. On average, Estonian women aged 40+ have given birth to 2 children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children born per woman of childbearing age. The baby boom refers to a noticeable increase in the birth rate and is believed to occur in migrants from wartorn and economically challenged countries. During the Syrian war in 2011, nearly 5 million Syrians had to leave their country. A significant part of the migration movement has been directed toward Turkey. In this study, it was aimed to investigate the baby boom presence of Syrian migrants in Turkey and to make comparisons. Materials and Methods: Our study is an observational, descriptive epidemiological study, and the data were reviewed and compiled retrospectively. A comparison of TFRs of Turkey and Syria according to the last 20 years of the United Nations' data and the Turkey Demographic and Health Survey of 2018 was done. Results: According to United Nations 2018 data, Turkey's TFR was 2.07, while Syria's was 2.8. According to 2018 Turkey's data, TFR in Syrian migrants is 5.3. When these rates are compared, it can be said that there is a significant increase in the fertility rate of Syrian migrants in Turkey, and this reveals the presence of a baby boom. Conclusion: In conclusion, when TFRs in the pre-war period and after the war are compared in literature, there was a post-war baby boom in the Syrian migrant in Turkey. The factors which may have effect on the fertility of Syrian migrants found as psychological, economic, social, cultural, religious, and socio-demographic characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between female labor participation rate and fertility rate in MENA countries. It uses the data of Female Labor Participation Rate (FLPR) and Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from the World Database Indicators (WDI) which spans the period from 1990 to 2020. It is a quantitative approach that applies the panel unit root test, Pedroni residual test, Vector Error Correction Model, and Granger Causality test. The findings revealed the existence of cointegration between the two variables, meaning that there is a longrun effect between FLFPR and TFR in MENA countries. Furthermore, there is the occurrence of a unidirectional causal relationship that runs from the TFR to FLFPR, in that the female labor participation rate in MENA countries depends on the total fertility rate. The results from the world economic report of 2019 showed that the MENA countries have the lowest female labor force participation in the world, and the relationship between the total fertility and female labor force participation rate is inversely proportional. MENA countries need to impose the necessary economic policies for female empowerment in the labor market. Good and effective policies for female empowerment in the labor market will provide a positive direct proportional relationship between female labor force participation and total fertility in MENA countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The regional features of the impact of migration processes on demographic dynamics and fertility in the Russian Federation are considered in the article. There were identified four groups of regions on dynamics of total fertility rate change depending on volume and intensity of migration. It is proposed to add the population forecasts carried out by Rosstat with calculations of the number of arrivals and departures of migrants necessary for a more accurate account of the impact of migration on demographic processes.

BackgroundEven though the total fertility rate (TFR) has decreased significantly over the past decades in many countries, it has remained stable in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. However, there is variation among the sub-regions and inhabitants of SSA. Therefore, this study aimed to conduct a meta-analysis of demographic and health surveys (DHS) to estimate the pooled level of TFR in SSA and to depict sub-regional and inhabitant differences.MethodsThe data source for this study was the standard Demographic and Health Survey datasets of 33 sub-Saharan African countries, accessed through www.meaasuredhs.com between 2010 and 2018. The point estimate of the total fertility rate with its corresponding standard error in each sub-Saharan African country was estimated using the DHS.rates R package. Using the point estimate of the TFR with the standard error of each country, the pooled estimate of the TFR was generated by the metan STATA command.ResultsThe study comprised 1,324,466 live births in total. The pooled estimate of sub-Saharan Africa's overall fertility rate was five children per woman (95% CI: 4.63–5.37). Consequently, the pooled estimate of total fertility for people living in urban and rural areas was 3.90 (95% CI: 3.60–4.21) and 5.82 (95% CI: 5.43–6.21) children per woman, respectively. In sub-group analysis, the pooled estimates of the TFR for the East African, Central African, Southern African, and West African regions, respectively, were 4.74, 5.59, 3.18, and 5.38 children per woman. Total fertility rates were greater in low-income nations (5.45), lower-middle-income countries (4.70), and high-middle-income countries (3.80).ConclusionsSSA has a relatively high total fertility rate. The regions of West and Central Africa have the highest overall fertility rate. The fertility rate is higher in countries with a large rural population and low income. Strategies should be developed to address this public health concern, especially in rural Central and Western Africa.

The total fertility rate in Iran has declined to below replacement level recently, and a new approach has been taken to tackle this issue. Thus, this study aimed to identify the involved stakeholders and their characteristics in the new population policy change in Iran. We employed a qualitative approach using the purposive sampling of key informants and the identification of relevant documents. The main stakeholders were divided into seven key groups: religious, political, governmental, professional, international sectors, media, and nongovernmental organizations. In addition, there was no centralized, clear, and comprehensive mechanism to guide the activities of stakeholders to coordinate and bring the total fertility rate to the replacement level in Iran. Despite the importance of the new population policy in Iran, in recent years, we still experience dispersion and inconsistency among various actors in this area. It is imperative to go through a consensus and coalition at macro-level authorities alongside evidenced-based population policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background The period fertility in China has declined to very low levels, and the completed cohort fertility rate (CFR) has also decreased significantly. However, the exact fertility rate remains controversial. While the tempo effect has played a significant role in China’s period fertility decline, child underreporting has to be taken into consideration in China’s fertility research. Methods By using the census data from 1982 to 2010, and the 1% population sample survey data from 1995 to 2015, we systematically analyzed China’s fertility and its trends since the 1980s using period fertility measures, adjusted period fertility measures, cohort fertility measures, and indirect estimation methods. Results The results show that marriage postponement significantly affects the TFR decline. Even after eliminating the tempo and parity structure effect, the adjusted TFR has fallen below 1.5, and the first-order fertility rate dropped to 0.9 in 2015. The CFR for women aged 45–49 declined from 5.37 in 1982 to 1.62 in 2015 mainly because of a decrease in fourth and higher-order births from 1982 to 1990, a decrease in second and third births from 1990 to 2000, and a decrease in second births from 2000 to 2015. Indirect estimation methods yielded a TFR in the range of 1.5–1.6 for the period 2000–2010 and an average TFR of 1.49 for the period 2011–2020. Conclusions The traditional norm of universal marriage and childbearing for Chinese women is changing. China’s fertility has been steadily declining, as measured by both period and cohort indicators. Following the historical change, fertility may continue to decline even after introducing the universal three-child policy in China in 2021.

AIMS: Factors determining low fertility in Sikkim, India. PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: The primary objective was to determine the factors for the low fertility in Sikkim. SECONDARY OBJECTIVE: The secondary objective was to find out the prevalence of contraceptive use and its types in Sikkim. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Study Setting: The study was conducted in the State of Sikkim. Study Period: The study period was 1 year (from February 2020 to January 2021). Study Population: The study population was female counterpart of the eligible couple. An eligible couple refers to a currently couple wherein the wife is in the reproductive age, which is between 15 and 49 years. Inclusion Criteria: Inclusion criteria were female counterparts of the eligible couple who consent to participate in the study. Exclusion Criteria: Exclusion criteria were male counterparts of the eligible couple. Study Tool: Structured pre-tested questionnaire was used to take the interview of the participants. Statistical Analysis Used: SPSS version 25 was used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: It was seen that having two or more children was higher for mothers who had married below 30 years than after 30 years with 14.9% and 6.9%, respectively (P = 0.03) and maximum mothers belonged to 30–34 years age group. The perception of the family size of the mother was that three-fourth (76.1%) responded to having two children, whereas 10.7% perceived one child to be sufficient and 13.2% mentioned having three or more. The overall contraceptive prevalence rate was found to be 73.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Causes for low fertility rate are multifactorial; some important ones are the perception and practice of concise and small family size and high contraceptive prevalence rate.