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Purpose: Immunoscore is a prognostic tool defined to quantify in situ immune cell infiltrates, which appears to be superior to the tumor–node–metastasis (TNM) classification in colorectal cancer. In non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), no immunoscore has been established, but in situ tumor immunology is recognized as highly important. We have previously evaluated the prognostic impact of several immunological markers in NSCLC, yielding the density of stromal CD8+ tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) as the most promising candidate. Hence, we validate the impact of stromal CD8+ TIL density as an immunoscore in NSCLC.Experimental Design: The prognostic impact of stromal CD8+ TILs was evaluated in four different cohorts from Norway and Denmark consisting of 797 stage I–IIIA NSCLC patients. The Tromso cohort (n = 155) was used as training set, and the results were further validated in the cohorts from Bodo (n = 169), Oslo (n = 295), and Denmark (n = 178). Tissue microarrays and clinical routine CD8 staining were used for all cohorts.Results: Stromal CD8+ TIL density was an independent prognostic factor in the total material (n = 797) regardless of the endpoint: disease-free survival (P < 0.001), disease-specific survival (P < 0.001), or overall survival (P < 0.001). Subgroup analyses revealed significant prognostic impact of stromal CD8+ TIL density within each pathologic stage (pStage). In multivariate analysis, stromal CD8+ TIL density and pStage were independent prognostic variables.Conclusions: Stromal CD8+ TIL density has independent prognostic impact in resected NSCLC, adds prognostic impact within each pStage, and is a good candidate marker for establishing a TNM-Immunoscore. Clin Cancer Res; 21(11); 2635–43. ©2015 AACR.

Purpose: Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) has the potential for cure with surgery when diagnosed at an early stage. Kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1) has been shown to be elevated in the plasma of RCC patients. We aimed to test whether plasma KIM-1 could represent a means of detecting RCC prior to clinical diagnosis.Experimental Design: KIM-1 concentrations were measured in prediagnostic plasma from 190 RCC cases and 190 controls nested within a population-based prospective cohort study. Cases had entered the cohort up to 5 years before diagnosis, and controls were matched on cases for date of birth, date at blood donation, sex, and country. We applied conditional logistic regression and flexible parametric survival models to evaluate the association between plasma KIM-1 concentrations and RCC risk and survival.Results: The incidence rate ratio (IRR) of RCC for a doubling in KIM-1 concentration was 1.71 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.44–2.03, P = 4.1 × 10−23], corresponding to an IRR of 63.3 (95% CI, 16.2–246.9) comparing the 80th to the 20th percentiles of the KIM-1 distribution in this sample. Compared with a risk model including known risk factors of RCC (age, sex, country, body mass index, and tobacco smoking status), a risk model additionally including KIM-1 substantially improved discrimination between cases and controls (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.8 compared with 0.7). High plasma KIM-1 concentrations were also associated with poorer survival (P = 0.0053).Conclusions: Plasma KIM-1 concentrations could predict RCC incidence up to 5 years prior to diagnosis and were associated with poorer survival. Clin Cancer Res; 24(22); 5594–601. ©2018 AACR.

Increasing evidence points to a role for inflammation in lung carcinogenesis. A small number of circulating inflammatory proteins have been identified as showing elevated levels prior to lung cancer diagnosis, indicating the potential for prospective circulating protein concentration as a marker of early carcinogenesis. To identify novel markers of lung cancer risk, we measured a panel of 92 circulating inflammatory proteins in 648 prediagnostic blood samples from two prospective cohorts in Italy and Norway (women only). To preserve the comparability of results and protect against confounding factors, the main statistical analyses were conducted in women from both studies, with replication sought in men (Italian participants). Univariate and penalized regression models revealed for the first time higher blood levels of CDCP1 protein in cases that went on to develop lung cancer compared with controls, irrespective of time to diagnosis, smoking habits, and gender. This association was validated in an additional 450 samples. Associations were stronger for future cases of adenocarcinoma where CDCP1 showed better explanatory performance. Integrative analyses combining gene expression and protein levels of CDCP1 measured in the same individuals suggested a link between CDCP1 and the expression of transcripts of LRRN3 and SEM1. Enrichment analyses indicated a potential role for CDCP1 in pathways related to cell adhesion and mobility, such as the WNT/β-catenin pathway. Overall, this study identifies lung cancer–related dysregulation of CDCP1 expression years before diagnosis.Significance:Prospective proteomics analyses reveal an association between increased levels of circulating CDCP1 and lung carcinogenesis irrespective of smoking and years before diagnosis, and integrating gene expression indicates potential underlying mechanisms.See related commentary by Itzstein et al., p. 3441.

Supplemental Table II. Prognostic clinicopathologic variables as predictors for DFS in 797 NSCLS (univariate analysis,log-rank test)

Supplementary Methods, Figures and Tables.

Supplemental Figure 1. Disease-specific survival curves according to low, intermediate and high stromal CD8+ T-cell density in the Danish cohort (Odense University Hospital, n = 178). (A) Score from the invasive margin tumor area, (B) score from the central parts of the tumor. The maximum score for each patient was used.

Supplementary Table 1, Supplementary Figures 1 and 2

The EarlyCDT-Lung test is a blood-based autoantibody assay intended to identify high-risk individuals for low-dose computed tomography lung cancer screening. However, there is a paucity of evidence on the performance of the EarlyCDT-Lung test in ever-smokers. We conducted a nested case-control study within two prospective cohorts to evaluate the risk-discriminatory performance of the EarlyCDT-Lung test using prediagnostic blood samples from 154 future lung cancer cases and 154 matched controls. Cases were selected from those who had ever smoked and had a prediagnostic blood sample The EarlyCDT-Lung test is a blood-based autoantibody assay intended to identify high-risk individuals for low-dose computed tomography lung cancer screening. However, there is a paucity of evidence on the performance of the EarlyCDT-Lung test in ever-smokers. We conducted a nested case-control study within two prospective cohorts to evaluate the risk-discriminatory performance of the EarlyCDT-Lung test using prediagnostic blood samples from 154 future lung cancer cases and 154 matched controls. Cases were selected from those who had ever smoked and had a prediagnostic blood sample

Flavie Perrier,1 Reza Ghiasvand,2,3 Simon Lergenmuller,1 Trude E Robsahm,3 Adele C Green,4,5 Kristin B Borch,6 Torkjel M Sandanger,6 Elisabete Weiderpass,7 Corina S Rueegg,2 Marit B Veierød1 1Oslo Centre for Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway; 2Oslo Centre for Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway; 3Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Oslo, Norway; 4QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; 5Cancer Research UK Manchester and Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK; 6Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway; 7International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, FranceCorrespondence: Flavie Perrier, Oslo Centre for Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1122, Blindern, Oslo, N-0317, Norway, Email flavie.perrier@medisin.uio.noPurpose: Physical activity (PA) is a cornerstone in disease prevention and varies throughout life. A pooled analysis of cohort studies and a meta-analysis of cohort studies found positive associations between PA and melanoma risk. However, previous studies focused on PA at specific ages and often lacked information on ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure. Using the population-based Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) cohort, including information on PA and UVR exposure, we estimated life-course PA trajectories from adolescence to adulthood and their associations with melanoma.Methods: Total PA across different domains (recreation, occupation, transport, household) was reported for ages 14 and 30 years, and when responding to the questionnaire (31– 76 years) using a 10-point scale, validated to rank PA levels in Norwegian females. We estimated life-course PA trajectories using a latent class mixed model in 152,248 women divided into three subcohorts depending on age at questionnaire completion: 31– 39 (n = 27,098), 40– 49 (n = 52,515) and ≥ 50 years (n = 72,635). The unique 11-digit identity number of Norwegian citizens was used to link NOWAC to the Cancer Registry of Norway for information on cancer diagnoses, emigration and death. Associations between PA trajectories and melanoma risk were estimated in each subcohort using multivariable Cox regression.Results: Five classes of individual life-course PA trajectories were identified in subcohort 31– 39 years (low, moderate, high, decreasing, increasing PA) and four in subcohorts 40– 49 and ≥ 50 years (low, moderate, high, decreasing PA). No significant association was found between life-course PA trajectories and melanoma risk in any subcohort. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for the high versus moderate trajectory were 0.92 (0.66– 1.29), 1.15 (0.97– 1.37) and 0.90 (0.78– 1.05) for subcohorts 31– 39, 40– 49 and ≥ 50 years, respectively.Conclusion: Our results do not support a positive association between PA and melanoma risk found in previous studies, which is important for public health guidelines promoting regular PA.Keywords: physical activity, cutaneous melanoma, trajectory, cohort, women, Norway

Funding European Commission (DG-SANCO) , the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) , MRC Early Career Fellowship (MR/M501669/1) ., Background Unhealthy diets, the rise of non-communicable diseases, and the declining health of the planet are highly intertwined, where food production and consumption are major drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions, substantial land use, and adverse health such as cancer and mortality. To assess the potential co-benefits from shifting to more sustainable diets, we aimed to investigate the associations of dietary greenhouse gas emissions and land use with all-cause and cause-specific mortality and cancer incidence rates. Methods Using data from 443 991 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, a multicentre prospective cohort, we estimated associations between dietary contributions to greenhouse gas emissions and land use and all-cause and cause-specific mortality and incident cancers using Cox proportional hazards regression models. The main exposures were modelled as quartiles. Co-benefits, encompassing the potential effects of alternative diets on all-cause mortality and cancer and potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and land use, were estimated with counterfactual attributable fraction intervention models, simulating potential effects of dietary shifts based on the EAT–Lancet reference diet. Findings In the pooled analysis, there was an association between levels of dietary greenhouse gas emissions and allcause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1·13 [95% CI 1·10–1·16]) and between land use and all-cause mortality (1·18 [1·15–1·21]) when comparing the fourth quartile to the first quartile. Similar associations were observed for cause-specific mortality. Associations were also observed between all-cause cancer incidence rates and greenhouse gas emissions, when comparing the fourth quartile to the first quartile (adjusted HR 1·11 [95% CI 1·09–1·14]) and between all-cause cancer incidence rates and land use (1·13 [1·10–1·15]); however, estimates differed by cancer type. Through counterfactual attributable fraction modelling of shifts in levels of adherence to the EAT–Lancet diet, we estimated that up to 19–63% of deaths and up to 10–39% of cancers could be prevented, in a 20-year risk period, by different levels of adherence to the EAT–Lancet reference diet. Additionally, switching from lower adherence to the EAT–Lancet reference diet to higher adherence could potentially reduce food-associated greenhouse gas emissions up to 50% and land use up to 62%. Interpretation Our results indicate that shifts towards universally sustainable diets could lead to co-benefits, such as minimising diet-related greenhouse gas emissions and land use, reducing the environmental footprint, aiding in climate change mitigation, and improving population health., European Commission European Commission Joint Research Centre, World Health Organization, UK Research & Innovation (UKRI) Medical Research Council UK (MRC) MR/M501669/1

Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare and aggressive cancer mainly caused by asbestos exposure. Specific and sensitive non-invasive biomarkers may facilitate and enhance screening programs for the early detection of cancer. We investigated DNA methylation (DNAm) profiles in MPM pre-diagnostic blood samples in a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) cohort, aiming to characterise DNAm biomarkers associated with MPM. From the EPIC cohort, we included samples from 135 participants who developed MPM during 20 years of follow up and from 135 matched, cancer-free, controls. For the discovery phase we selected EPIC participants who developed MPM within five years from enrolment (n=36) with matched controls. We identified nine differentially methylated CpGs, selected by 10-fold cross-validation and correlation analyses: cg25755428 (MRI1), cg20389709 (KLF11), cg23870316, cg13862711 (LHX6), cg06417478 (HOOK2), cg00667948, cg01879420 (AMD1), cg25317025 (RPL17) and cg06205333 (RAP1A). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that the model including baseline characteristics (age, sex, PC1wbc) along with the nine MPM-related CpGs has a better predictive value for MPM occurrence than the baseline model alone, maintaining some performance also at more than five years before diagnosis [AUC (area under the curve) 10 years=0.75; baseline AUC range=0.63-0.67)]. DNAm changes as non-invasive biomarkers in pre-diagnostic blood samples of MPM cases were investigated for the first time. Their application can improve the identification of asbestos-exposed individuals at higher MPM risk in order to possibly adopt more intensive monitoring for early disease identification.

Introduction: We investigated the impact of changes in lifestyle habits on colorectal cancer (CRC) risk in a multi-country European cohort. Methods: We used baseline and follow-up questionnaire data from the EPIC cohort to assess changes in lifestyle habits and their associations with CRC development. We calculated a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) score based on smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index and physical activity collected at the two timepoints. HLI ranged from 0 (most unfavourable) to 16 (most favourable). We estimated the association between HLI changes and CRC risk using Cox regression models and reported hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Among 295,865 participants, 2,799 CRC cases were observed over a median of 7.8 years. Median time between questionnaires was 5.7 years. Each unit increase in HLI from the baseline to the follow-up assessment was associated with a statistically significant 3% lower CRC risk. Among participants in the top tertile at baseline (HLI>11), those in the bottom tertile at follow-up (HLI≤9) had a higher CRC risk (HR 1.34; 95%CI 1.02-1.75) than those remaining in the top tertile. Among individuals in the bottom tertile at baseline, those in the top tertile at follow-up had a lower risk (HR 0.77; 95%CI 0.59-1.00) than those remaining in the bottom tertile. Discussion: Improving adherence to a healthy lifestyle was inversely associated with CRC risk, while worsening adherence was positively associated with CRC risk. These results justify and support recommendations for healthy lifestyle changes and healthy lifestyle maintenance for CRC prevention.

It is unclear whether diet, and in particular certain foods or nutrients, are associated with lung cancer risk. We assessed associations of 92 dietary factors with lung cancer risk in 327,790 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) per standard deviation (SD) higher intake/day of each food/nutrient. Correction for multiple comparisons was performed using the false discovery rate and identified associations were evaluated in the Netherlands Cohort Study (NLCS). In EPIC, 2,420 incident lung cancer cases were identified during a median of 15 years of follow-up. Higher intakes of fibre (HR per 1 SD higher intake/day=0.91, 95%CI 0.87-0.96), fruit (HR=0.91, 95%CI 0.86-0.96), and vitamin C (HR=0.91, 95%CI 0.86-0.96) were associated with a lower risk of lung cancer, whereas offal (HR=1.08, 95%CI 1.03-1.14), retinol (HR=1.06, 95%CI 1.03-1.10), and beer/cider (HR=1.04, 95%CI 1.02-1.07) intakes were positively associated with lung cancer risk. Associations did not differ by sex and there was less evidence for associations among never smokers. None of the six associations with overall lung cancer risk identified in EPIC were replicated in the NLCS (2,861 cases), however in analyses of histological subtypes, inverse associations of fruit and vitamin C with squamous cell carcinoma were replicated in the NLCS. Overall, there is little evidence that intakes of specific foods and nutrients play a major role in primary lung cancer risk, but fruit and vitamin C intakes seem to be inversely associated with squamous cell lung cancer. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Background Childhood cancer survivors (CCS) exhibit significantly increased chronic diseases and premature death. Abnormalities in DNA methylation are associated with development of chronic diseases and reduced life expectancy. We investigated the hypothesis that anti-cancer treatments are associated with long-term DNA methylation changes that could be key drivers of adverse late health effects. Methods Genome-wide DNA methylation was assessed using MethylationEPIC arrays in paired samples (before/after therapy) from 32 childhood cancer patients. Separately, methylation was determined in 32 samples from different adult CCS (mean 22-years post-diagnosis) and compared with cancer-free controls (n = 284). Results Widespread DNA methylation changes were identified post-treatment in childhood cancer patients, including 146 differentially methylated regions (DMRs), which were consistently altered in the 32 post-treatment samples. Analysis of adult CCS identified matching methylation changes at 107/146 of the DMRs, suggesting potential long-term retention of post-therapy changes. Adult survivors also exhibited epigenetic age acceleration, independent of DMR methylation. Furthermore, altered methylation at the DUSP6 DMR was significantly associated with early mortality, suggesting altered methylation may be prognostic for some late adverse health effects in CCS. Conclusions These novel methylation changes could serve as biomarkers for assessing normal cell toxicity in ongoing treatments and predicting long-term health outcomes in CCS.

Background: Nutrition and lifestyle have been long established as risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC). Modifiable lifestyle behaviours bear potential to minimize long-term CRC risk; however, translation of lifestyle information into individualized CRC risk assessment has not been implemented. Lifestyle-based risk models may aid the identification of high-risk individuals, guide referral to screening and motivate behaviour change. We therefore developed and validated a lifestyle-based CRC risk prediction algorithm in an asymptomatic European population. Methods: The model was based on data from 255,482 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study aged 19 to 70 years who were free of cancer at study baseline (1992–2000) and were followed up to 31 September 2010. The model was validated in a sample comprising 74,403 participants selected among five EPIC centres. Over a median follow-up time of 15 years, there were 3645 and 981 colorectal cancer cases in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Variable selection algorithms in Cox proportional hazard regression and random survival forest (RSF) were used to identify the best predictors among plausible predictor variables. Measures of discrimination and calibration were calculated in derivation and validation samples. To facilitate model communication, a nomogram and a web-based application were developed. Results: The final selection model included age, waist circumference, height, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, vegetables, dairy products, processed meat, and sugar and confectionary. The risk score demonstrated good discrimination overall and in sex-specific models. Harrell’s C-index was 0.710 in the derivation cohort and 0.714 in the validation cohort. The model was well calibrated and showed strong agreement between predicted and observed risk. Random survival forest analysis suggested high model robustness. Beyond age, lifestyle data led to improved model performance overall (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.307 (95% CI 0.264–0.352)), and especially for young individuals below 45 years (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.364 (95% CI 0.084–0.575)). Conclusions: LiFeCRC score based on age and lifestyle data accurately identifies individuals at risk for incident colorectal cancer in European populations and could contribute to improved prevention through motivating lifestyle change at an individual level., German Research Foundation (DFG) AL 1784/3-1, European Commission European Commission Joint Research Centre, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Danish Cancer Society, Ligue Contre le Cancer (France), Institut Gustave Roussy (France), Mutuelle Generale de l'Education Nationale (France), Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (Inserm), Deutsche Krebshilfe, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum (DKFZ) (Germany), Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF), Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece), Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (AIRC), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Netherlands Government, World Cancer Research Fund International (WCRF), Instituto de Salud Carlos III PI13/00061 PI13/01162, Junta de Andalucia, Regional Government of Asturias (Spain), Regional Government of Basque Country (Spain), Regional Government of Murcia (Spain) 6236, Regional Government of Navarra (Spain), Regional Government of Catalonia (Catalan Institute of Oncology -ICO-IDIBELL) (Spain), Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council, County Council of Skane (Sweden), County Council of Vasterbotten (Sweden), Cancer Research UK C864/A14136 C8221/A19170, UK Research & Innovation (UKRI) Medical Research Council UK (MRC) MR/N003284/1 MC-UU_12015/1 MR/M012190/1, Projekt DEAL

Background Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure is a leading cause of skin cancers and an ubiquitous environmental exposure. However, the molecular mechanisms relating UVR exposure to melanoma is not fully understood. We aimed to investigate if lifetime UVR exposure influences DNA methylation, and if individual CpG sites could be robustly associated with UVR exposures.Methods We assessed DNA methylation in whole blood in three data sets (N = 183, 191, and 125) from the Norwegian Women and Cancer cohort, using Illumina methylation platforms (450k & EPIC). We studied genome-wide DNA methylation, targeted analyses of CpG sites indicated in the literature, global methylation (average over all CpGs and imputation of LINE-1 specific CpGs), and accelerated aging. Lifetime history of UVR exposure (residential ambient UVR, sunburns, sunbathing vacations and indoor tanning) was collected by questionnaires. Cumulative UVR exposure was calculated by adding sunbathing vacations and indoor tanning. We used one data set for discovery and the other two for replication. Results One CpG site showed a genome-wide significant association between cumulative UVR exposure and DNA methylation (cg01884057) (pnominal=3.96e-08), but was not replicated in any of the two replication sets (pnominal≥0.42). Four CpG sites (cg05860019, cg00033666, cg18984282, cg25792367) showed suggestive associations with the other UVR exposures. Conclusion We performed extensive analyses of the association between long-term UVR exposure and DNA methylation in lymphocytes. There was no indication of a robust effect of past UVR exposure on DNA methylation, and our results do not suggest mediation of UVR effects on melanoma risk by DNA methylation.

Background Positive associations have been reported between persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM); however, causality has not been established. Over the last decades, environmental exposure to legacy POPs has decreased, complicating epidemiological studies. In addition, physiological risk factors for T2DM may also influence POP concentrations, contributing to a complex network of factors that could impact associations with T2DM. Longitudinal studies on this topic are lacking, and few have assessed prospective and cross-sectional associations between repeated POP measurements and T2DM in the same individuals, which may shed light on causality. Objectives To compare longitudinal trends in concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in T2DM cases and controls, and to examine prospective and cross-sectional associations between PCBs, OCPs and T2DM at different time-points before and after T2DM diagnosis in cases. Methods We conducted a longitudinal, nested case-control study (1986–2016) of 116 T2DM cases and 139 controls from the Tromso Study. All participants had three blood samples collected before T2DM diagnosis in cases, and up to two samples thereafter. We used linear mixed-effect models to assess temporal changes of POPs within and between T2DM cases and controls, and logistic regression models to investigate the associations between different POPs and T2DM at different time-points. Results PCBs, trans-nonachlor, cis-nonachlor, oxychlordane, cis-heptachlor epoxide, p,p’-DDE, and p,p’-DDT declined more slowly in cases than controls, whereas β-HCH and HCB declined similarly in both groups. Most POPs showed positive associations between both pre- and post-diagnostic concentrations and T2DM, though effect estimates were imprecise. These associations were most consistent for cis-heptachlor epoxide. Discussion The observed positive associations between certain POPs and T2DM may be because of higher POP concentrations within prospective T2DM cases, due to slower temporal declines as compared to controls.

The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and also by the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London-, which has additional infrastructure support provided by the NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The national cohorts are supported by: Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Generale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke (DIfE), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Germany); Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy, Compagnia di SanPaolo and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); Health Research Fund (FIS)-Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Regional Governments of Andalucia, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia and Navarra,-and the Catalan Institute of OncologyICO (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council and County Councils of Skane and Vasterbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK (C864/A14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C8221/A29017 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (MR/N003284/1, MC-UU 12015/1 and MC UU_00006/1to EPIC-Norfolk; MR/M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford). (United Kingdom). Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL., BACKGROUND: CA125 is the best available yet insufficiently sensitive biomarker for early detection of ovarian cancer. There is a need to identify novel biomarkers, which individually or in combination with CA125 can achieve adequate sensitivity and specificity for the detection of earlier-stage ovarian cancer. METHODS: In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, we measured serum levels of 92 preselected proteins for 91 women who had blood sampled ≤18 months prior to ovarian cancer diagnosis, and 182 matched controls. We evaluated the discriminatory performance of the proteins as potential early diagnostic biomarkers of ovarian cancer. RESULTS: Nine of the 92 markers; CA125, HE4, FOLR1, KLK11, WISP1, MDK, CXCL13, MSLN and ADAM8 showed an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of ≥0.70 for discriminating between women diagnosed with ovarian cancer and women who remained cancerfree. All, except ADAM8, had shown at least equal discrimination in previous case-control comparisons. The discrimination of the biomarkers, however, was low for the lag-time of >9–18 months and paired combinations of CA125 with any of the 8 markers did not improve discrimination compared to CA125 alone. CONCLUSION: Using pre-diagnostic serum samples, this study identified markers with good discrimination for the lag-time of 0–9 months. However, the discrimination was low in blood samples collected more than 9 months prior to diagnosis, and none of the markers showed major improvement in discrimination when added to CA125., World Health Organization, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Danish Cancer Society, Ligue Contre le Cancer (France), Institut Gustave Roussy (France), Mutuelle Generale de l'Education Nationale (France), Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (Inserm), Deutsche Krebshilfe, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) (Germany), German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke (DIfE) (Germany), Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF), Fondazione AIRC per la ricerca sul cancro, Compagnia di San Paolo, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Netherlands Government, World Cancer Research Fund International (WCRF), Health Research Fund (FIS)-Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) (Spain), Junta de Andalucia, Regional Government of Asturias (Spain), Regional Government of Basque Country (Spain), Regional Government of Murcia (Spain), Regional Government of Navarra (Spain), Catalan Institute of OncologyICO (Spain), Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council, County Council of Skane (Sweden), County Council of Vasterbotten (Sweden), Cancer Research UK C864/A14136 C8221/A29017, UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), Medical Research Council UK (MRC) MR/N003284/1 MC-UU 12015/1 MC UU_00006/1 MR/M012190/1, Projekt DEAL

Background: Tobacco exposure causes 8 of 10 lung cancers, and identifying additional risk factors is challenging due to confounding introduced by smoking in traditional observational studies. Materials and Methods: We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to screen 207 metabolites for their role in lung cancer predisposition using independent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of blood metabolite levels (n = 7,824) and lung cancer risk (n = 29,266 cases/56,450 controls). A nested case–control study (656 cases and 1,296 matched controls) was subsequently performed using prediagnostic blood samples to validate MR association with lung cancer incidence data from population-based cohorts (EPIC and NSHDS). Results: An MR-based scan of 207 circulating metabolites for lung cancer risk identified that blood isovalerylcarnitine (IVC) was associated with a decreased odds of lung cancer after accounting for multiple testing (log10-OR = 0.43; 95% CI, 0.29–0.63). Molar measurement of IVC in prediagnostic blood found similar results (log10-OR = 0.39; 95% CI, 0.21–0.72). Results were consistent across lung cancer subtypes. Conclusions: Independent lines of evidence support an inverse association of elevated circulating IVC with lung cancer risk through a novel methodologic approach that integrates genetic and traditional epidemiology to efficiently identify novel cancer biomarkers. Impact: Our results find compelling evidence in favor of a protective role for a circulating metabolite, IVC, in lung cancer etiology. From the treatment of a Mendelian disease, isovaleric acidemia, we know that circulating IVC is modifiable through a restricted protein diet or glycine and L-carnatine supplementation. IVC may represent a modifiable and inversely associated biomarker for lung cancer.

Background Since March 2020, 440 million people worldwide have been diagnosed with COVID-19, but the true number of infections with SARS-CoV-2 is higher. SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence can add crucial epidemiological information about population infection dynamics. Aim To provide a large population-based SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence survey from Norway; we estimated SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence before introduction of vaccines and described its distribution across demographic groups. Methods In this population-based cross-sectional study, a total of 110,000 people aged 16 years or older were randomly selected during November–December 2020 and invited to complete a questionnaire and provide a dried blood spot (DBS) sample. Results The response rate was 30% (31,458/104,637); compliance rate for return of DBS samples was 88% (27,700/31,458). National weighted and adjusted seroprevalence was 0.9% (95% CI (confidence interval): 0.7–1.0). Seroprevalence was highest among those aged 16–19 years (1.9%; 95% CI: 0.9–2.9), those born outside the Nordic countries 1.4% (95% CI: 1.0–1.9), and in the counties of Oslo 1.7% (95% CI: 1.2–2.2) and Vestland 1.4% (95% CI: 0.9–1.8). The ratio of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence (0.9%) to cumulative incidence of virologically detected cases by mid-December 2020 (0.8%) was slightly above one. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was low before introduction of vaccines in Norway and was comparable to virologically detected cases, indicating that most cases in the first 10 months of the pandemic were detected. Conclusion Findings suggest that preventive measures including contact tracing have been effective, people complied with physical distancing recommendations, and local efforts to contain outbreaks have been essential.

Background & aims: Circulating levels of acylcarnitines (ACs) have been associated with the risk of various diseases such as cancer and type 2 diabetes. Diet and lifestyle factors have been shown to influence AC concentrations but a better understanding of their biological, lifestyle and metabolic determinants is needed. Methods: Circulating ACs were measured in blood by targeted (15 ACs) and untargeted metabolomics (50 ACs) in 7770 and 395 healthy participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), respectively. Associations with biological and lifestyle characteristics, dietary patterns, self-reported intake of individual foods, estimated intake of carnitine and fatty acids, and fatty acids in plasma phospholipid fraction and amino acids in blood were assessed. Results: Age, sex and fasting status were associated with the largest proportion of AC variability (partial-r up to 0.19, 0.18 and 0.16, respectively). Some AC species of medium or long-chain fatty acid moiety were associated with the corresponding fatty acids in plasma (partial-r ¼ 0.24) or with intake of specific foods such as dairy foods containing the same fatty acid. ACs of short-chain fatty acid moiety (propionylcarnitine and valerylcarnitine) were moderately associated with concentrations of branched-chain amino acids (partial-r ¼ 0.5). Intake of most other foods and of carnitine showed little association with AC levels. Conclusions: Our results show that determinants of ACs in blood vary according to their fatty acid moiety, and that their concentrations are related to age, sex, diet, and fasting status. Knowledge on their potential determinants may help interpret associations of ACs with disease risk and inform on potential dietary and lifestyle factors that might be modified for disease prevention.

Funding [WCRF 2015/1391, PI: M. Jenab] was obtained from Wereld Kanker Onderzoek Fonds (WKOF), as part of the World Cancer Research Fund International grant program. The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and also by the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, which has additional infrastructure support provided by the NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The national cohorts are supported by: Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Generale de lEducation Nationale, Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke (DIfE), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Germany); Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy, Compagnia di SanPaolo and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); Health Research Fund (FIS) - Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Regional Governments of Andalucia, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia and Navarra, the Catalan Institute of OncologyICO (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council and County Councils of Skane and Vaesterbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C8221/A29017 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk; MR/M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford) (United Kingdom). The EPIC-Norfolk study (DOI 10.22025/2019.10.105.00004) received funding from the Medical Research Council (MR/N003284/1 and MC-UU_12015/1) and Cancer Research UK (C864/A14136). V. Fedirko is supported by the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas (CPRIT) Rising Stars Award (Grant ID RR200056). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript., Advanced glycation end-products (AGEs) may promote oxidative stress and inflammation and have been linked to multiple chronic diseases, including cancer. However, the association of AGEs with mortality after colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis has not been previously investigated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals for associations between dietary intake of AGEs with CRC-specific and all-cause mortality among 5801 participant cases diagnosed with CRC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study between 1993 and 2013. Dietary intakes of AGEs were estimated using country-specific dietary questionnaires, linked to an AGE database, that accounted for food preparation and processing. During a median of 58 months of follow-up, 2421 cases died (1841 from CRC). Individually or combined, dietary intakes of AGEs were not associated with all-cause and CRC-specific mortality among cases. However, there was a suggestion for a positive association between AGEs and all-cause or CRC-specific mortality among CRC cases without type II diabetes (all-cause, P-interaction = 0.05) and CRC cases with the longest follow-up between recruitment and cancer diagnosis (CRC-specific, P-interaction = 0.003; all-cause, P-interaction = 0.01). Our study suggests that pre-diagnostic dietary intakes of AGEs were not associated with CRC-specific or all-cause mortality among CRC patients. Further investigations using biomarkers of AGEs and stratifying by sex, diabetes status, and timing of exposure to AGEs are warranted., Wereld Kanker Onderzoek Fonds (WKOF), World Cancer Research Fund International grant program WCRF 2015/1391, World Health Organization, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Danish Cancer Society, Ligue Contre le Cancer (France) Institut Gustave Roussy (France) Mutuelle Generale de lEducation Nationale (France), Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (Inserm), Deutsche Krebshilfe German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) (Germany) German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke (DIfE) (Germany), Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF), Fondazione AIRC per la ricerca sul cancro Compagnia di San Paolo Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Netherlands Government, World Cancer Research Fund International (WCRF), Health Research Fund (FIS) - Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Junta de Andalucia Regional Government of Asturias (Spain) Regional Government of Basque Country (Spain) Regional Government of Murcia (Spain) Regional Government of Navarra (Spain) Catalan Institute of OncologyICO (Spain), Swedish Cancer Society Swedish Research Council County Council of Skane (Sweden) County Council of Vaesterbotten (Sweden), Cancer Research UK 14136 C8221/A29017, UK Research & Innovation (UKRI) Medical Research Council UK (MRC) 1000143 MR/M012190/1 UK Research & Innovation (UKRI) Medical Research Council UK (MRC), European Commission MR/N003284/1 MC-UU_12015/1, Cancer Research UK C864/A14136, Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas (CPRIT) Rising Stars Award RR200056

The prognosis of cutaneous melanoma depends on early detection, and good biomarkers for melanoma risk may provide a valuable tool to detect melanoma development at a pre-clinical stage. By studying the epigenetic profile in pre-diagnostic blood samples of melanoma cases and cancer free controls, we aimed to identify DNA methylation sites conferring melanoma risk. DNA methylation was measured at 775,528 CpG sites using the Illumina EPIC array in whole blood in incident melanoma cases (n = 183) and matched cancer-free controls (n = 183) in the Norwegian Women and Cancer cohort. Phenotypic information and ultraviolet radiation exposure were obtained from questionnaires. Epigenome wide association (EWAS) was analyzed in future melanoma cases and controls with conditional logistic regression, with correction for multiple testing using the false discovery rate (FDR). We extended the analysis by including a public data set on melanoma (GSE120878), and combining these different data sets using a version of covariate modulated FDR (AdaPT). The analysis on future melanoma cases and controls did not identify any genome wide significant CpG sites (0.85 ≤ padj ≤ 0.99). In the restricted AdaPT analysis, 7 CpG sites were suggestive at the FDR level of 0.15. These CpG sites may potentially be used as pre-diagnostic biomarkers of melanoma risk.