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Off Fukushima, Japanese flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus) is a highly-valued species supporting coastal and offshore fisheries. We developed an age-structured population model incorporating seasonal coastal-offshore migrations to estimate and predict the abundance of Japanese flounder off Fukushima, where fishing has been restricted since the 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) accident. We estimated the abundance of Japanese flounder using catch per unit effort from coastal gill net and offshore bottom trawl fishing from January 2000 to February 2011 and predicted the abundance under two different fishing effort scenarios (the same effort level as 2010 or decreased effort after the FNPP accident). Estimated abundance reflected the seasonal coastal-offshore migrations well, and it was estimated that abundance increased during and after 2007 because of high recruitments. In contrast, it was concluded that the predicted abundance on and after 2012 increased owing to the decreased fishing effort because the same estimated recruits were used in both scenarios. This indicates that the waters off Fukushima have effectively been serving as a marine protected area for Japanese flounder since the FNPP accident. This result was validated because almost all (83%) of the observed abundance index values calculated from a scientific bottom trawl survey during 2003–2014 were included within the estimated (predicted) 95% credible intervals of estimated (predicted) abundance index in the period. We also demonstrated the model's applicability for estimating the optimal fishing effort and age at first landing to maximize the earnings from gillnet and bottom trawl fisheries.

Although the number of marine protected areas (MPAs) for stock management has increased, movements or differences in population structure of a target species between an MPA and surrounding fishing areas have rarely been considered in stock biomass estimations. We developed a surplus production model considering seasonal movements between two areas; the model was applied to Sea Ravens Hemitripterus villosus off Fukushima, where almost all fishing has been prohibited since the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant. We predicted future biomass by using CPUE data from coastal gill-net fishing and offshore bottom trawl fishing in 2000 to 2009. The model reflected the seasonal coastal–offshore movements of Sea Ravens well, and it predicted increasing Sea Raven biomass in both areas, which was validated by the CPUEs observed after 2010—including those for trial bottom trawl fishing that occurred within limited offshore areas after the accident. Our results indicate that the newly de...