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Objective: People with neuropsychiatric symptoms often experience delay in accurate diagnosis. Although cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light (CSF NfL) shows promise in distinguishing neurodegenerative disorders (ND) from psychiatric disorders (PSY), its accuracy in a diagnostically challenging cohort longitudinally is unknown. Methods: We collected longitudinal diagnostic information (mean = 36 months) from patients assessed at a neuropsychiatry service, categorising diagnoses as ND/mild cognitive impairment/other neurological disorders (ND/MCI/other) and PSY. We pre-specified NfL > 582 pg/mL as indicative of ND/MCI/other. Results: Diagnostic category changed from initial to final diagnosis for 23% (49/212) of patients. NfL predicted the final diagnostic category for 92% (22/24) of these and predicted final diagnostic category overall (ND/MCI/other vs. PSY) in 88% (187/212), compared to 77% (163/212) with clinical assessment alone. Conclusions: CSF NfL improved diagnostic accuracy, with potential to have led to earlier, accurate diagnosis in a real-world setting using a pre-specified cut-off, adding weight to translation of NfL into clinical practice.

Background: Multiple sclerosis patients experience 3–6 times more seizures than the general population, but observations vary among studies. Seizure risk in disease-modifying therapy recipients remains unknown. Objective: The objective of this study was to compare seizure risk in multiple sclerosis patients receiving disease-modifying therapy versus placebo. Methods: MEDLINE(OVID), Embase, CINAHL, and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched from database inception until August 2021. Phase 2–3 randomized, placebo-controlled trials reporting efficacy and safety data for disease-modifying therapies were included. Network meta-analysis followed Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, using Bayesian random effects model for individual and pooled (by drug target) therapies. Main outcome was loge seizure risk ratios [95% credible intervals]. Sensitivity analysis included meta-analysis of non-zero-event studies. Results: A total of 1993 citations and 331 full-texts were screened. Fifty-six included studies (29,388 patients—disease-modifying therapy = 18,909; placebo = 10,479) reported 60 seizures (therapy = 41; placebo = 19). No individual therapy was associated with altered seizure risk ratio. Exceptions were daclizumab (−17.90 [−65.31; −0.65]) and rituximab (−24.86 [−82.71; −1.37]) trending toward lower risk ratio; cladribine (25.78 [0.94; 4.65]) and pegylated interferon-beta-1a (25.40 [0.78; 85.47]) trended toward higher risk ratio. Observations had wide credible intervals. Sensitivity analysis of 16 non-zero-event studies revealed no difference in risk ratio for pooled therapies (l0.32 [−0.94; 0.29]) Conclusion: No evidence of association was found between disease-modifying therapy and seizure risk—this informs seizure management in multiple sclerosis patients.

Background: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. Objective: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. Methods: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. Results: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. Conclusions: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

Multiple sclerosis is a leading cause of neurological disability in adults. Heterogeneity in multiple sclerosis clinical presentation has posed a major challenge for identifying genetic variants associated with disease outcomes. To overcome this challenge, we used prospectively ascertained clinical outcomes data from the largest international multiple sclerosis registry, MSBase. We assembled a cohort of deeply phenotyped individuals of European ancestry with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis. We used unbiased genome-wide association study and machine learning approaches to assess the genetic contribution to longitudinally defined multiple sclerosis severity phenotypes in 1813 individuals. Our primary analyses did not identify any genetic variants of moderate to large effect sizes that met genome-wide significance thresholds. The strongest signal was associated with rs7289446 (β = −0.4882, P = 2.73 × 10−7), intronic to SEZ6L on chromosome 22. However, we demonstrate that clinical outcomes in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis are associated with multiple genetic loci of small effect sizes. Using a machine learning approach incorporating over 62 000 variants together with clinical and demographic variables available at multiple sclerosis disease onset, we could predict severity with an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.84 (95% CI 0.79–0.88). Our machine learning algorithm achieved positive predictive value for outcome assignation of 80% and negative predictive value of 88%. This outperformed our machine learning algorithm that contained clinical and demographic variables alone (area under the receiver operator curve 0.54, 95% CI 0.48–0.60). Secondary, sex-stratified analyses identified two genetic loci that met genome-wide significance thresholds. One in females (rs10967273; βfemale = 0.8289, P = 3.52 × 10−8), the other in males (rs698805; βmale = −1.5395, P = 4.35 × 10−8), providing some evidence for sex dimorphism in multiple sclerosis severity. Tissue enrichment and pathway analyses identified an overrepresentation of genes expressed in CNS compartments generally, and specifically in the cerebellum (P = 0.023). These involved mitochondrial function, synaptic plasticity, oligodendroglial biology, cellular senescence, calcium and G-protein receptor signalling pathways. We further identified six variants with strong evidence for regulating clinical outcomes, the strongest signal again intronic to SEZ6L (adjusted hazard ratio 0.72, P = 4.85 × 10−4). Here we report a milestone in our progress towards understanding the clinical heterogeneity of multiple sclerosis outcomes, implicating functionally distinct mechanisms to multiple sclerosis risk. Importantly, we demonstrate that machine learning using common single nucleotide variant clusters, together with clinical variables readily available at diagnosis can improve prognostic capabilities at diagnosis, and with further validation has the potential to translate to meaningful clinical practice change.

Chimeric antigen receptor T-cell (CAR-T) therapy is a promising immunotherapy approved for hematological malignancies. Despite its effectiveness, clinically significant rates of toxicity, including immune effector cell associated neurotoxicity syndrome (ICANS), limit its widespread use. In certain contexts, ICANS may occur in up to one-third of patients using commercially available CAR-T therapies. The syndrome presents with a range of neurological signs and symptoms, as well as a variety of neuroimaging manifestations reported in the literature. A systematic review of the literature was performed. The systematic search strategy identified 24 studies discussing the neuroimaging appearances associated with ICANS. Imaging findings are more common in patients with higher grade neurotoxicity. The neuroimaging findings are heterogeneous, but can be grouped either anatomically (white matter, gray matter, brainstem, or leptomeninges) or pathologically (ischemic changes, hemorrhages, or cerebral edema). An understanding of the imaging manifestations of ICANS has the potential to impact the management of patients.

The prognostic value of optical coherence tomography (OCT) of the macular ganglion cell layer (mGGL) versus peripapillary retinal nerve fibre layers (pRNFL) following chiasmal decompression is unclear. This study is the largest comparison of the two parameters to date and aims to clarify how their performance as covariates compare in predictive models of long-term visual outcomes following pituitary or parasellar tumour surgical resection.This was a prospective, two-year, longitudinal cohort study in a single centre tertiary hospital setting. Participants with MRI evidence of pituitary or parasellar tumour compression of the optic chiasm who underwent surgical decompression, were enrolled. Associations between pre-operative OCT parameters and long-term visual outcomes were assessed using multivariable generalised linear mixed models and an age matched normative database.Final analysis included 216 eyes of 108 participants with a mean age (standard deviation) of 51.6 (17.04) years, of whom 58 (49%) were female. The superior inner mGCL was the best predictor of long-term visual field recovery, with an area under the curve of 0.90, a sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 88%, positive predictive value of 86%, and negative predictive value of 83%.mGCL performed better in predicting long-term visual field recovery post-pituitary or parasellar surgical resection. The superior inner mGCL was the best specific measure which may provide clinical utility in pre-operative counselling. In this study we clarify previously variable comparisons of mGCL and pRNFL parameters in post-operative predictive modelling.

© 2022Background: Patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) who experience relapses on a first-line therapy (interferon, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide; collectively, “BRACETD”) often switch to another therapy, including natalizumab or fingolimod. Here we compare the effectiveness of switching from a first-line therapy to natalizumab or fingolimod after ≥1 relapse. Methods: Data collected prospectively in the MSBase Registry, a global, longitudinal, observational registry, were extracted on February 6, 2018. Included patients were adults with RRMS with ≥1 relapse on BRACETD therapy in the year before switching to natalizumab or fingolimod. Included patients received natalizumab or fingolimod for ≥3 months after the switch. Results: Following 1:1 propensity score matching, 1000 natalizumab patients were matched to 1000 fingolimod patients. Mean (standard deviation) follow-up time was 3.02 (2.06) years after switching to natalizumab and 2.58 (1.64) years after switching to fingolimod. Natalizumab recipients had significantly lower annualized relapse rate (relative risk=0.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59–0.74), lower risk of first relapse (hazard ratio [HR]=0.69; 95% CI, 0.60–0.80), and higher confirmed disability improvement (HR=1.27; 95% CI, 1.03–1.57) than fingolimod recipients. No difference in confirmed disability worsening was observed. Conclusions: Patients with RRMS switching from BRACETD demonstrated better outcomes with natalizumab than with fingolimod.

Background: effectiveness of cladribine tablets, an oral disease-modifying treatment (DMT) for multiple sclerosis (MS), was established in clinical trials and confirmed with real-world experience. Objectives: use real-world data to compare treatment patterns and clinical outcomes in people with MS (pwMS) treated with cladribine tablets versus other oral DMTs. Methods: retrospective treatment comparisons were based on data from the international MSBase registry. Eligible pwMS started treatment with cladribine, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide tablets from 2018 to mid-2021 and were censored at treatment discontinuation/switch, death, loss to follow-up, pregnancy, or study period end. Treatment persistence was evaluated as time to discontinuation/switch; relapse outcomes included time to first relapse and annualized relapse rate (ARR). Results: cohorts included 633 pwMS receiving cladribine tablets, 1195 receiving fingolimod, 912 receiving dimethyl fumarate, and 735 receiving teriflunomide. Individuals treated with fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide switched treatment significantly more quickly than matched cladribine tablet cohorts (adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 4.00 (2.54-6.32), 7.04 (4.16-11.93), and 6.52 (3.79-11.22), respectively). Cladribine tablet cohorts had significantly longer time-to-treatment discontinuation, time to first relapse, and lower ARR, compared with other oral DMT cohorts. Conclusion: cladribine tablets were associated with a significantly greater real-world treatment persistence and more favorable relapse outcomes than all oral DMT comparators., Financial support for this study was provided entirely by a contract with EMD Serono Research & Development Institute, Inc., Billerica, MA, USA, an affiliate of Merck KGaA (CrossRef Funder ID: 10.13039/100004755). The funding agreement ensured the authors’ independence in designing the study, interpreting the data, writing, and publishing the report. The following authors are employed by the sponsor: NT and SLW.

Background and purpose: This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS).Methods: We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow -up >= 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score >= 3, with >= 1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12 -month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics.Results: Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45- 0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41- 0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09- 1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity.Conclusions: DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age. This study was financially supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (1129189, 1140766, 1080518) We thank the patients and their carers who have agreed to participate in the global MSBase cohort study. The MSBase Foundation is a not-for-profit organization that receives support from Roche, Merck, Biogen, Novartis, Bayer-Schering, Sanofi-Genzyme, and Teva. The study was conducted separately and apart from the guidance of the sponsors. Open access publishing facilitated by The University of Melbourne, as part of the Wiley - The University of Melbourne agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians.

Objective: Schizophrenia, a complex psychiatric disorder, is often associated with cognitive, neurological and neuroimaging abnormalities. The processes underlying these abnormalities, and whether a subset of people with schizophrenia have a neuroprogressive or neurodegenerative component to schizophrenia, remain largely unknown. Examining fluid biomarkers of diverse types of neuronal damage could increase our understanding of these processes, as well as potentially provide clinically useful biomarkers, for example with assisting with differentiation from progressive neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer and frontotemporal dementias. Methods: This study measured plasma neurofilament light chain protein (NfL) using ultrasensitive Simoa technology, to investigate the degree of neuronal injury in a well-characterised cohort of people with treatment-resistant schizophrenia on clozapine ( n = 82), compared to first-degree relatives (an at-risk group, n = 37), people with schizophrenia not treated with clozapine ( n = 13), and age- and sex-matched controls ( n = 59). Results: We found no differences in NfL levels between treatment-resistant schizophrenia (mean NfL, M = 6.3 pg/mL, 95% confidence interval: [5.5, 7.2]), first-degree relatives (siblings, M = 6.7 pg/mL, 95% confidence interval: [5.2, 8.2]; parents, M after adjusting for age = 6.7 pg/mL, 95% confidence interval: [4.7, 8.8]), controls (M = 5.8 pg/mL, 95% confidence interval: [5.3, 6.3]) and not treated with clozapine (M = 4.9 pg/mL, 95% confidence interval: [4.0, 5.8]). Exploratory, hypothesis-generating analyses found weak correlations in treatment-resistant schizophrenia, between NfL and clozapine levels (Spearman’s r = 0.258, 95% confidence interval: [0.034, 0.457]), dyslipidaemia ( r = 0.280, 95% confidence interval: [0.064, 0.470]) and a negative correlation with weight ( r = −0.305, 95% confidence interval: [−0.504, −0.076]). Conclusion: Treatment-resistant schizophrenia does not appear to be associated with neuronal, particularly axonal degeneration. Further studies are warranted to investigate the utility of NfL to differentiate treatment-resistant schizophrenia from neurodegenerative disorders such as behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia, and to explore NfL in other stages of schizophrenia such as the prodome and first episode.

Background: The added value of neurofilament light chain levels in serum (sNfL) to the concept of no evidence of disease activity-3 (NEDA-3) has not yet been investigated in detail. Objective: To assess whether combination of sNfL with NEDA-3 status improves identification of patients at higher risk of disease activity during the following year. Methods: We analyzed 369 blood samples from 155 early relapsing-remitting MS patients on interferon beta-1a. We compared disease activity, including the rate of brain volume loss in subgroups defined by NEDA-3 status and high or low sNfL (> 90th or Results: In patients with disease activity (EDA-3), those with higher sNFL had higher odds of EDA-3 in the following year than those with low sNFL (86.5% vs 57.9%; OR = 4.25, 95% CI: [2.02, 8.95]; p = 0.0001) and greater whole brain volume loss during the following year (β = −0.36%; 95% CI = [−0.60, −0.13]; p = 0.002). Accordingly, NEDA-3 patients with high sNfL showed numerically higher disease activity (EDA-3) in the following year compared with those with low sNfL (57.1% vs 31.1%). Conclusion: sNfL improves the ability to identify patients at higher risk of future disease activity, beyond their NEDA-3 status. Measurement of sNfL may assist clinicians in decision-making by providing more sensitive prognostic information.

Made available in DSpace on 2022-04-28T19:46:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2021-11-09 Background and ObjectivesPeople with multiple sclerosis MS are a vulnerable group for severe coronavirus disease 2019 COVID-19, particularly those taking immunosuppressive disease-modifying therapies DMTs. We examined the characteristics of COVID-19 severity in an international sample of people with MS.MethodsData from 12 data sources in 28 countries were aggregated sources could include patients from 1-12 countries. Demographic age, sex, clinical MS phenotype, disability, and DMT untreated, alemtuzumab, cladribine, dimethyl fumarate, glatiramer acetate, interferon, natalizumab, ocrelizumab, rituximab, siponimod, other DMTs covariates were queried, along with COVID-19 severity outcomes, hospitalization, intensive care unit ICU admission, need for artificial ventilation, and death. Characteristics of outcomes were assessed in patients with suspected/confirmed COVID-19 using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, MS phenotype, and Expanded Disability Status Scale EDSS score.ResultsSix hundred fifty-seven 28.1% with suspected and 1,683 61.9% with confirmed COVID-19 were analyzed. Among suspected plus confirmed and confirmed-only COVID-19, 20.9% and 26.9% were hospitalized, 5.4% and 7.2% were admitted to ICU, 4.1% and 5.4% required artificial ventilation, and 3.2% and 3.9% died. Older age, progressive MS phenotype, and higher disability were associated with worse COVID-19 outcomes. Compared to dimethyl fumarate, ocrelizumab and rituximab were associated with hospitalization adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-2.41; aOR 2.43, 95% CI 1.48-4.02 and ICU admission aOR 2.30, 95% CI 0.98-5.39; aOR 3.93, 95% CI 1.56-9.89, although only rituximab was associated with higher risk of artificial ventilation aOR 4.00, 95% CI 1.54-10.39. Compared to pooled other DMTs, ocrelizumab and rituximab were associated with hospitalization aOR 1.75, 95% CI 1.29-2.38; aOR 2.76, 95% CI 1.87-4.07 and ICU admission aOR 2.55, 95% CI 1.49-4.36; aOR 4.32, 95% CI 2.27-8.23, but only rituximab was associated with artificial ventilation aOR 6.15, 95% CI 3.09-12.27. Compared to natalizumab, ocrelizumab and rituximab were associated with hospitalization aOR 1.86, 95% CI 1.13-3.07; aOR 2.88, 95% CI 1.68-4.92 and ICU admission aOR 2.13, 95% CI 0.85-5.35; aOR 3.23, 95% CI 1.17-8.91, but only rituximab was associated with ventilation aOR 5.52, 95% CI 1.71-17.84. Associations persisted on restriction to confirmed COVID-19 cases. No associations were observed between DMTs and death. Stratification by age, MS phenotype, and EDSS score found no indications that DMT associations with COVID-19 severity reflected differential DMT allocation by underlying COVID-19 severity.DiscussionUsing the largest cohort of people with MS and COVID-19 available, we demonstrated consistent associations of rituximab with increased risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, and need for artificial ventilation and of ocrelizumab with hospitalization and ICU admission. Despite the cross-sectional design of the study, the internal and external consistency of these results with prior studies suggests that rituximab/ocrelizumab use may be a risk factor for more severe COVID-19. CORe Department of Medicine and Neuroepidemiology Unit Melbourne School of Population and Global Health Menzies Institute for Medical Research University of Tasmania ESAT-STADIUS KU Leuven Department of Neurology Melbourne MS Centre Royal Melbourne Hospital MS International Federation Department of Clinical Neuroscience Swedish MS Registry Department of Neurology CHU Pontchaillou Karolinska Institutet Biomedical Research Institute-Data Science Institute Hasselt University Department of Medical Informatics University Medical Center Department of Computer Science and AI KU Leuven QMENTA Medpace Reference Laboratories Molecular Unit IConquerMS People-Powered Research Network Accelerated Cure Project for MS NeuroTransData Study Group NeuroTransData German MS-Register by the National MS Society MS Forschungs- und Projektentwicklungs-gGmbH MS Register Swansea University COViMS Division of Biostatistics Washington University in St. Louis Mellen Center for Multiple Sclerosis Cleveland Clinic Department of Neuroscience Central Clinical School Monash University Al-Amiri Hospital Kuwait City Dokuz Eylul University Neurology Department Hospital Universitario de CEMIC RELACOEM Australian MS Longitudinal Study Menzies Institute for Medical Research University of Tasmania Bulgarian SmartMS COVID-19 Dataset ABEM-Brazilian MS Patients Association Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry Department of Neurology University Hospital Rigshospitalet Universidade Estadual Paulista Unesp Faculdade de Medicina REDONE.br-Brazilian Registry of Multiple Sclerosis and Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorders Irmandade da Santa Casa de Misericórdia de São Paulo Multiple Sclerosis University Center Ramos Mejia Hospital-EMA Imperial College Swansea University Mental Health Area MS and Demyelinating Diseases Hospital Británico de Buenos Aires EMA Servei de Neurologia-Neuroimmunologia Centre d'Esclerosi Múltiple de Catalunya Cemcat Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca Vall d'Hebron Hospital Universitari Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona Institute of Experimental Neurology Ospedale San Raffaele Universidade Estadual Paulista Unesp Faculdade de Medicina

Background and ObjectivesLongitudinal cognitive trajectories in multiple sclerosis are heterogeneous and difficult to measure. We aimed to identify discrete longitudinal reaction time trajectories in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis using a computerized cognitive battery and to assess the association between trajectories of reaction time and disability progression.MethodsAll participants serially completed computerized reaction time tasks measuring psychomotor speed, visual attention, and working memory. Participants completed at least 3 testing sessions over a minimum of 180 days. Longitudinal reaction times were modeled with latent class mixed models to identify groups of individuals sharing similar latent characteristics. Optimal models were validated for consistency and baseline associations with class membership tested using multinomial logistic regression. Interclass differences in the probability of reaction time worsening and the probability of 6-month confirmed disability progression were assessed with survival analysis.ResultsA total of 460 people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis were included in the analysis. For each task of the MSReactor battery, the optimal model comprised 3 latent classes. All MSReactor tasks could identify a group with high probability of reaction time slowing. The visual attention and working memory tasks could identify a group of participants who were 3.7 and 2.6 times more likely to experience a 6-month confirmed disability progression, respectively. Participants could be classified into predicted cognitive trajectories after just 5 tests with 64% to 89% accuracy.DiscussionLatent class modeling of longitudinal cognitive data collected by a computerized battery identified patients with worsening reaction times and increased risk of disability progression. Slower baseline reaction time, age, and disability increased assignment into this trajectory. Monitoring of cognition in clinical practice with computerized tests may enable detection of cognitive change trajectories and people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis at risk of disability progression.

Background: Timely initiation of disease modifying therapy is crucial for managing multiple sclerosis (MS). Objective: We aimed to validate a previously published predictive model of individual treatment response using a non-overlapping cohort from the Middle East. Methods: We interrogated the MSBase registry for patients who were not included in the initial model development. These patients had relapsing MS or clinically isolated syndrome, a recorded date of disease onset, disability and dates of disease modifying therapy, with sufficient follow-up pre- and post-baseline. Baseline was the visit at which a new disease modifying therapy was initiated, and which served as the start of the predicted period. The original models were used to translate clinical information into three principal components and to predict probability of relapses, disability worsening or improvement, conversion to secondary progressive MS and treatment discontinuation as well as changes in the area under disability-time curve (ΔAUC). Prediction accuracy was assessed using the criteria published previously. Results: The models performed well for predicting the risk of disability worsening and improvement (accuracy: 81%–96%) and performed moderately well for predicting the risk of relapses (accuracy: 73%–91%). The predictions for ΔAUC and risk of treatment discontinuation were suboptimal (accuracy Conclusion: The previously published models are generalisable to patients with a broad range of baseline characteristics in different geographic regions.

Background Health state utilities (HSU) are a health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) input for cost-utility analyses used for resource allocation decisions, including medication reimbursement. New Zealand (NZ) guidelines recommend the EQ-5D instruments; however, the EQ-5D-5L may not sufficiently capture psychosocial health. We evaluated HRQoL among people with multiple sclerosis (MS) in NZ using the EQ-5D-5L and assessed the instrument’s discriminatory sensitivity for a NZ MS cohort. Methods Participants were recruited from the NZ MS Prevalence Study. Participants self-completed a 45-min online survey that included the EQ-5D-5L/EQ-VAS. Disability severity was classified using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) to categorise participant disability as mild (EDSS: 0–3.5), moderate (EDSS: 4.0–6.0) and severe (EDSS: 6.5–9.5). Anxiety/depression were also measured using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score (HADS). In the absence of an EQ-5D-5L NZ tariff, HSUs were derived using an Australian tariff. We evaluated associations between HSUs and participant characteristics with linear regression models. Results 254 participants entered the study. Mean age was 55.2 years, 79.5% were female. Mean (SD) EQ-5D-5L HSU was 0.58 (0.33). Mean (SD) HSUs for disability categories were: mild 0.80 ± 0.17, moderate 0.57 ± 0.21 and severe 0.14 ± 0.32. Twelve percent reported HSU = 1.0 (i.e., no problems in any domain). Participants who had never used a disease-modifying therapy reported a lower mean HSU. Multivariable modelling found that the HADS anxiety score was not associated with EQ-5D-5L. Conclusions HRQoL for people with MS in NZ was lower than comparable countries, including Australia. We suggest a comparison with other generic tools that may have improved sensitivity to mental health.

BackgroundDisability progression is a key milestone in the disease evolution of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Prediction models of disability progression have not yet reached the level of trust needed to be adopted in the clinic. A common benchmark to assess model development in multiple sclerosis is also currently lacking.MethodsData of adult PwMS with a follow-up of at least three years from 146 MS centers, spread over 40 countries and collected by the MSBase consortium was used. With basic inclusion criteria for quality requirements, it represents a total of 15, 240 PwMS. External validation was performed and repeated five times to assess the significance of the results. TRIPOD guidelines were followed.Confirmed disability progression after two years was predicted, with a confirmation window of six months. Only routinely collected variables were used such as the expended disability status scale, treatment, relapse information, and MS course.To learn the probability of disability progression, state-of-the-art machine learning models were investigated. The discrimination performance of the models is evaluated on their area under the receiver operator curve (ROC-AUC) and under the precision recall curve (AUC-PR), and their calibration via the Brier score and the expected calibration error.FindingsA temporal attention model was the best model. It achieved a ROC-AUC of 0·71 ± 0·01, an AUC-PR of 0·26 ± 0·02, a Brier score of 0·1 ± 0·01 and an expected calibration error of 0·07 ± 0·04. The history of disability progression is more predictive for future disability progression than the treatment or relapses.InterpretationGood discrimination and calibration performance on an external validation set is achieved, using only routinely collected variables. This makes these models ready for a clinical impact study. All our preprocessing and model code is available at https://gitlab.com/edebrouwer/ms_benchmark, making this task an ideal benchmark for predicting disability progression in MS.

ObjectivePeople with neuropsychiatric symptoms often experience delay in accurate diagnosis. Although cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light (CSF NfL) shows promise in distinguishing neurodegenerative disorders (ND) from psychiatric disorders (PSY), its accuracy in a diagnostically challenging cohort longitudinally is unknown.MethodsWe collected longitudinal diagnostic information (mean=36 months) from patients assessed at a neuropsychiatry service, categorising diagnoses as ND/mild cognitive impairment/other neurological disorders (ND/MCI/other), and PSY. We pre-specified NfL>582pg/mL as indicative of ND/MCI/other.ResultsDiagnostic category changed from initial to final diagnosis for 23% (49/212) of patients. NfL predicted the final diagnostic category for 92% (22/24) of these and predicted final diagnostic category overall (ND/MCI/other vs. PSY) in 88% (187/212), compared to 77% (163/212) with clinical assessment alone.ConclusionsCSF NfL improved diagnostic accuracy, with potential to have led to earlier, accurate diagnosis in a real-world setting using a pre-specified cut-off, adding weight to translation of NfL into clinical practice.

Background: Disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) are used to treat people with relapsing-onset multiple sclerosis (ROMS), but our knowledge is largely limited to their short-term effects. Objective: To determine (1) the impact of national-level DMT subsidy policy on DMT use and health outcomes in people with MS (PwMS) and (2) the long-term effects of DMT on disability and quality of life (QoL; 5-level EQ-5D version (EQ-5D-5L) utility value). Methods: This observational cohort study compared Australian and New Zealand populations with different levels of DMT availability 10–20 years post-ROMS diagnosis. Between-country differences were assessed using standardised differences. Associations were assessed with multivariable linear regression models. Results: We recruited 328 Australians and 256 New Zealanders. The Australian cohort had longer DMT treatment duration, greater proportion of disease course treated and shorter duration between diagnosis and starting DMT. The Australian cohort had lower median Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) (3.5 vs 4.0) and Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) (3.05 vs 3.71) and higher QoL (0.71 vs 0.65). In multivariable models, between-country differences in disability and QoL were largely attributed to differential use of DMT. Conclusions: This study provides evidence for the impact of national-level DMT policy on disability outcomes in PwMS. Where DMTs are more accessible, PwMS experienced less disability progression and improved QoL 10–20 years post-diagnosis.

Background and purpose The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. Methods In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. Results The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score >1.5). Conclusions Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual. NHMRC [1129189, 1157717, 1140766]; Merck; Biogen; Novartis; Roche; Bayer; Schering; Sanofi Genzyme; Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

To examine the utility of neuroimaging characteristics as biomarkers of prognosis in seropositive autoimmune encephalitis (AE).In this multi-center study, we retrospectively analyzed 66 cases of seropositive AE. The MRI and PET imaging was assessed by independent visual inspection. Whole brain and regional volumes were imputed by IcoMetrix, an automated volumetric assessment package. The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was utilized to assess the patients' follow-up disability. Other outcomes were mortality, first line treatment failure, medial temporal lobe (MTL) atrophy, and clinical relapse. Univariate and multivariable regression analysis was performed.Abnormalities on MRI were detected in 35.1% of patients, while PET was abnormal in 46.4%. Initial median whole brain and hippocampal volumes were below the 5th and 20th percentile respectively compared to an age-matched healthy database. After a median follow-up of 715 days, 85.2% had good functional outcome (mRS ≤ 2). Nine patients developed MTL atrophy during follow-up. On multivariable analysis, inflammatory MTL changes were associated with development of MTL atrophy (HR 19.6, p = 0.007) and initial hippocampal volume had an inverse relationship with mortality (HR 0.04, p = 0.011). Patients who developed MTL atrophy had a reduced chance of good final mRS (HR 0.16, p = 0.015).Neuroimaging on initial hospital admission may be provide important diagnostic and prognostic information. This study demonstrates that structural and inflammatory changes of the MTL may have importance in clinical and radiological prognosis in seropositive AE.

Background: Patients with relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis commonly switch between disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). Identifying predictors of relapse when switching could improve outcomes. Objective: To determine predictors of relapse hazard when switching to cladribine. Methods: Data of patients who switched to cladribine, grouped by prior disease-modifying therapy (pDMT; interferon-β/glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, fingolimod or natalizumab (NTZ)), were extracted from the MSBase Registry. Predictors of relapse hazard during the treatment gap and the first year of cladribine therapy were determined. Results: Of 513 patients, 22 relapsed during the treatment gap, and 38 within 1 year of starting cladribine. Relapse in the year before pDMT cessation predicted treatment gap relapse hazard (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.03–5.71). After multivariable adjustment, relapse hazard on cladribine was predicted by relapse before pDMT cessation (HR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.01–4.02), treatment gap relapse (HR = 6.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.65–14.41), switch from NTZ (HR compared to injectable therapies 4.08, 95% CI = 1.35–12.33) and age at cladribine start (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.91–0.99). Conclusion: Relapse during or prior to the treatment gap, and younger age, are of prognostic relevance in the year after switching to cladribine. Switching from NTZ is also independently associated with greater relapse hazard.