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Pakistan's nuclear weapons program generates intense concern in Washington and among its allies for a variety of reasons. To name only a few, there are concerns about the potential of nuclear war with India, about proliferation, about Pakistan's impact on the global arms control regime (most recently illustrated by its stance on the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty), about an arms race in SW Asia, about state failure, about military control over its nuclear weapons, and about acquisition of the weapons (or fissile material) by Islamist militants. These concerns are legitimate to be sure. But a closer examination of the program itself and the environment in which that program nests raises a larger concern: the likelihood of synergistic interactions among these variables leading to even greater danger to US security. This manifestation of unintended outcomes cannot be predicted, but the way in which these dangers arise can be better understood. To this end, this paper examines the environment in which Pakistan's program nests, what sorts of dangers may arise in this environment, and how these dangers might interact synergistically, leading to even greater peril. The resulting hazards are more difficult to understand, less predictable, and thus pose an even greater threat to US security than generally acknowledged. Because the threats generated are more likely to have unintended consequences, it is more important than ever to plan for coherent, interconnected responses. This paper examines the environment in which Pakistan's nuclear weapons program exists, key elements of the program itself, and then discusses several forecasting tools that are available to help understand the interaction of the various variables, synergistic outcomes, and the implications of these outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan's nuclear weapons arsenal faces multiple threats including unauthorized use, destruction by India, and loss to militants. This paper examines the background in which Pakistan developed nuclear weapons. It reviews past nuclaer crises in the region and how this has affected Pakistan's operational doctrine. The paper evaluates Pakistans strategic command control system, both in terms of procedure and systems. This paper examines the threats to Pakistan's nuclear weapons arsenal and the implications of such threats. The paper pays special attention to the synergystic nature of these threats. The paper concludes by discussing the impact of these threats on international security. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the possessor of the "Islamic Bomb" and a front line in the war on terror, Pakistan presents special challenges for U.S. policy. This paper seeks to understand the development of Pakistan's nuclear program, the current status, and likely direction in the future. The paper will also examine the interaction among nuclear armed Pakistan, India, China, and the United States. The paper will examine Pakistani force structure as well as command and control. Finally, the paper will note implications for U.S. policy. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although terrorism has become a focal point for scholarship, the phenomenon often exists in the context of broader civil conflict. Consequently, if civil conflict can be mitigated, terrorism too might be reduced. This paper examines autonomy agreements as one means of controlling ethnic conflict. In particular, the paper examines the variety of types of self-rule (including cultural autonomy, territorial autonomy, personal autonomy, etc.) and determines which sorts of agreement will best provide for those desires. A framework is created where autonomy is understood as part of a larger set of choices ranging from complete subservience to the state, through various forms of autonomy, and in its broadest manifestation, independence. The research is placed within this framework. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many believe that the greatest current threat to U.S. national security stems from terrorism, especially terrorism involving WMD. The current strategy for defeating such attacks is both deep and broad. This paper first systematically sets forth America's approach to defeating a WMD attack, including strategies aimed at preventing profliferation of WMD and precursor materials. The paper then examines whether deterrence still has a role to play in preventing WMD attacks upon the United States. Although the general consensus is that deterrence is ineffective against terrorists, this paper posits that deterrence can play a secondary role in preventing WMD terrorism. This is particularly so if one adopts the RAND view of terrorism as a "systems" problem. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]