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Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Effective policies to halt biodiversity loss require knowing which anthropogenic drivers are the most important direct causes. Whereas previous knowledge has been limited in scope and rigor, here we statistically synthesize empirical comparisons of recent driver impacts found through a wide-ranging review. We show that land/sea use change has been the dominant direct driver of recent biodiversity loss worldwide. Direct exploitation of natural resources ranks second and pollution third; climate change and invasive alien species have been significantly less important than the top two drivers. The oceans, where direct exploitation and climate change dominate, have a different driver hierarchy from land and fresh water. It also varies among types of biodiversity indicators. For example, climate change is a more important driver of community composition change than of changes in species populations. Stopping global biodiversity loss requires policies and actions to tackle all the major drivers and their interactions, not some of them in isolation.

Poleward range shifts under climate change involve the colonization of new sites and hence the foundation of new populations at the expanding edge. We studied oviposition site selection in a butterfly under range expansion ( Lycaena dispar ), a key process for the establishment of new populations. We described and compared the microhabitats used by the species for egg laying with those available across the study sites both in edge and in core populations. We carried out an ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) to estimate (1) the variety of microhabitats used by the butterfly for egg laying (tolerance) and (2) the extent to which these selected microhabitats deviated from those available (marginality). Microhabitat availability was similar in edge and core populations. Ambient temperature recorded at the site level above the vegetation was on average lower at core populations. In contrast with what is often assumed, edge populations did not have narrower microhabitat use compared to core populations. Females in edge populations even showed a higher degree of generalism: They laid eggs under a wider range of microhabitats. We suggest that this pattern could be related to an overrepresentation of fast deciding personalities in edge populations. We also showed that the thermal time window for active female behavior was reduced in edge populations, which could significantly decrease the time budget for oviposition and decrease the threshold of acceptance during microhabitat selection for oviposition in recently established populations., Competing Interests: None declared., (© 2021 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Behavioural plasticity during habitat selection plays a key role in determining whether organisms may thrive under human-induced rapid environmental changes. As organisms rely on environmental cues to make decisions, these behavioural responses may be maladaptive. We studied the European stonechat Saxicola torquatus as a model open-habitat bird species breeding in three structurally different land-use types generated by agriculture and forestry activities. In this mosaic landscape, we compared the relative attractiveness and the breeding habitat quality of intensive grassland, Christmas tree plantations and clear-cut patches in plantation forests to test whether habitat selection was adaptive. We examined the settlement pattern of territorial males to evaluate habitat preference. We recorded key parameters reflecting reproductive performances, adult and first-year survival to estimate the individual fitness of the birds and assess the quality of the different land-use types for breeding. Stonechats preferentially settled in clear-cut patches, but their fitness was not found to be markedly different in comparison with the other occupied habitats. Although they produced slightly lower-quality offspring in clear-cut patches, we did not find a negative consequence on first-year survival probabilities or any among-habitat differences in adult survival. With our analysis integrating multiple components of individual fitness, we show that all occupied land-use types are similarly rewarding for the breeding stonechats. Our study shows that some species can benefit from novel land-use types emerging in the landscape as a result of human activities. Flexible habitat selection in the stonechat has most probably contributed to its recent population increase in Western Europe.

The climatic preferences of the species determine to a large extent their response to climate change. Temperature preferences have been shown to play a key role in driving trends in animal populations. However, the relative importance of temperature and precipitation preferences is still poorly understood, particularly in systems where ecological processes are strongly constrained by the amount and timing of rainfall. In this study, we estimated the role played by temperature and precipitation preferences in determining population trends for birds and butterflies in a Mediterranean area. Trends were derived from long-term biodiversity monitoring data and temperature and precipitation preferences were estimated from species distribution data at three different geographical scales. We show that population trends were first and foremost related to precipitation preferences both in birds and in butterflies. Temperature preferences had a weaker effect on population trends, and were significant only in birds. The effect of precipitation on population trends operated in opposite directions in the two groups of species: butterfly species from arid environments and bird species from humid habitats are decreasing most. Our results indicate that, although commonly neglected, water availability is likely an important driver of animal population change in the Mediterranean region, with highly contrasting impacts among taxonomical groups.

In human-modified environments, organisms may prefer to use habitats where their reproductive performance is lower compared to alternative options. Many such ecological traps occur in seasonally changing environments. Although the timing of breeding has been shown to impact reproductive performance in a variety of organisms, it has never been considered as a potential mechanism underlying ecological traps. We address this issue with a migratory bird, the red-backed shrike, breeding in a human-modified, farmland-forest landscape. Shrikes prefer breeding in forest clear-cuts where their reproductive performance is lower than in less attractive farmland. We compared brood size and quality of early (first broods) and delayed breeders (replacement broods) between the two habitats. We found a stronger seasonal decrease in reproductive performance in preferred forest clear-cuts than in farmland. Food resources were slightly more abundant in forest than in farmland at the beginning of the season but depleted more steeply in forest by the end of the breeding season. By contrast, the phenotypic quality of breeders did not decline over the course of the season in either habitat. This is the first report that the timing of breeding relative to the seasonal change in key resources may play a significant role in explaining low reproductive performance in ecological traps.

Temporal baselines are needed for biodiversity, in order for the change in biodiversity to be measured over time, the targets for biodiversity conservation to be defined and conservation progress to be evaluated. Limited biodiversity information is widely recognized as a major barrier for identifying temporal baselines, although a comprehensive quantitative assessment of this is lacking. Here, we report on the temporal baselines that could be drawn from biodiversity monitoring schemes in Europe and compare those with the rise of important anthropogenic pressures. Most biodiversity monitoring schemes were initiated late in the 20 th century, well after anthropogenic pressures had already reached half of their current magnitude. Setting temporal baselines from biodiversity monitoring data would therefore underestimate the full range of impacts of major anthropogenic pressures. In addition, biases among taxa and organization levels provide a truncated picture of biodiversity over time. These limitations need to be explicitly acknowledged when designing management strategies and policies as they seriously constrain our ability to identify relevant conservation targets aimed at restoring or reversing biodiversity losses. We discuss the need for additional research efforts beyond standard biodiversity monitoring to reconstruct the impacts of major anthropogenic pressures and to identify meaningful temporal baselines for biodiversity., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

In human-modified environments, ecological traps may result from a preference for low-quality habitat where survival or reproductive success is lower than in high-quality habitat. It has often been shown that low reproductive success for birds in preferred habitat types was due to higher nest predator abundance. However, between-habitat differences in nest predation may only weakly correlate with differences in nest predator abundance. An ecological trap is at work in a farmland bird (Lanius collurio) that recently expanded its breeding habitat into open areas in plantation forests. This passerine bird shows a strong preference for forest habitat, but it has a higher nest success in farmland. We tested whether higher abundance of nest predators in the preferred habitat or, alternatively, a decoupling of nest predator abundance and nest predation explained this observed pattern of maladaptive habitat selection. More than 90% of brood failures were attributed to nest predation. Nest predator abundance was more than 50% higher in farmland, but nest predation was 17% higher in forest. Differences between nest predation on actual shrike nests and on artificial nests suggested that parent shrikes may facilitate nest disclosure for predators in forest more than they do in farmland. The level of caution by parent shrikes when visiting their nest during a simulated nest predator intrusion was the same in the two habitats, but nest concealment was considerably lower in forest, which contributes to explaining the higher nest predation in this habitat. We conclude that a decoupling of nest predator abundance and nest predation may create ecological traps in human-modified environments.

In human-altered environments, organisms may preferentially settle in poor-quality habitats where fitness returns are lower relative to available higher-quality habitats. Such ecological trapping is due to a mismatch between the cues used during habitat selection and the habitat quality. Maladaptive settlement decisions may occur when organisms are time-constrained and have to rapidly evaluate habitat quality based on incomplete knowledge of the resources and conditions that will be available later in the season. During a three-year study, we examined settlement decision-making in the long-distance migratory, open-habitat bird, the Red-backed shrike (Lanius collurio), as a response to recent land-use changes. In Northwest Europe, the shrikes typically breed in open areas under a management regime of extensive farming. In recent decades, Spruce forests have been increasingly managed with large-size cutblocks in even-aged plantations, thereby producing early-successional vegetation areas that are also colonised by the species. Farmland and open areas in forests create mosaics of two different types of habitats that are now occupied by the shrikes. We examined redundant measures of habitat preference (order of settlement after migration and distribution of dominant individuals) and several reproductive performance parameters in both habitat types to investigate whether habitat preference is in line with habitat quality. Territorial males exhibited a clear preference for the recently created open areas in forests with higher-quality males settling in this habitat type earlier. Reproductive performance was, however, higher in farmland, with higher nest success, offspring quantity, and quality compared to open areas in forests. The results showed strong among-year consistency and we can therefore exclude a transient situation. This study demonstrates a case of maladaptive habitat selection in a farmland bird expanding its breeding range to human-created open habitats in plantations. We discuss the reasons that could explain this decision-making and the possible consequences for the population dynamics and persistence.