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Understanding changes in Antarctic ice shelf basal melting is a major challenge for predicting future sea level. Currently, warm Circumpolar Deep Water surrounding Antarctica has limited access to the Weddell Sea continental shelf; consequently, melt rates at Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf are low. However, large‐scale model projections suggest that changes to the Antarctic Slope Front and the coastal circulation may enhance warm inflows within this century. We use a regional high‐resolution ice shelf cavity and ocean circulation model to explore forcing changes that may trigger this regime shift. Our results suggest two necessary conditions for supporting a sustained warm inflow into the Filchner Ice Shelf cavity: (i) an extreme relaxation of the Antarctic Slope Front density gradient and (ii) substantial freshening of the dense shelf water. We also find that the on‐shelf transport over the western Weddell Sea shelf is sensitive to the Filchner Trough overflow characteristics.

An increasing number of Southern Ocean models now include Antarctic ice-shelf cavities, and simulate thermodynamics at the ice-shelf/ocean interface. This adds another level of complexity to Southern Ocean simulations, as ice shelves interact directly with the ocean and indirectly with sea ice. Here, we present the first model intercomparison and evaluation of present-day ocean/sea-ice/ice-shelf interactions, as simulated by two models: a circumpolar Antarctic configuration of MetROMS (ROMS: Regional Ocean Modelling System coupled to CICE: Community Ice CodE) and the global model FESOM (Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model), where the latter is run at two different levels of horizontal resolution. From a circumpolar Antarctic perspective, we compare and evaluate simulated ice-shelf basal melting and sub-ice-shelf circulation, as well as sea-ice properties and Southern Ocean water mass characteristics as they influence the sub-ice-shelf processes. Despite their differing numerical methods, the two models produce broadly similar results and share similar biases in many cases. Both models reproduce many key features of observations but struggle to reproduce others, such as the high melt rates observed in the small warm-cavity ice shelves of the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas. Several differences in model design show a particular influence on the simulations. For example, FESOM's greater topographic smoothing can alter the geometry of some ice-shelf cavities enough to affect their melt rates; this improves at higher resolution, since less smoothing is required. In the interior Southern Ocean, the vertical coordinate system affects the degree of water mass erosion due to spurious diapycnal mixing, with MetROMS' terrain-following coordinate leading to more erosion than FESOM's z coordinate. Finally, increased horizontal resolution in FESOM leads to higher basal melt rates for small ice shelves, through a combination of stronger circulation and small-scale intrusions of wa

Basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves is expected to increase during the twenty-first century as the ocean warms, which will have consequences for ice sheet stability and global sea level rise. Here we present future projections of Antarctic ice shelf melting using the Finite Element Sea Ice/Ice-Shelf Ocean Model (FESOM) forced with atmospheric output from models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). CMIP5 models are chosen based on their agreement with historical atmospheric reanalyses over the Southern Ocean; the best-performing models are ACCESS 1.0 and the CMIP5 multimodel mean. Their output is bias-corrected for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. During the twenty-first-century simulations, total ice shelf basal mass loss increases by between 41% and 129%. Every sector of Antarctica shows increased basal melting in every scenario, with the largest increases occurring in the Amundsen Sea. The main mechanism driving this melting is an increase in warm Circumpolar Deep Water on the Antarctic continental shelf. A reduction in wintertime sea ice formation simulated during the twenty-first century stratifies the water column, allowing a warm bottom layer to develop and intrude into ice shelf cavities. This effect may be overestimated in the Amundsen Sea because of a cold bias in the present-day simulation. Other consequences of weakened sea ice formation include freshening of High Salinity Shelf Water and warming of Antarctic Bottom Water. Furthermore, freshening around the Antarctic coast in our simulations causes the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to weaken and the Antarctic Coastal Current to strengthen.

The authors present to the Working Group on Ecosystem Monitoring and Management (WG EMM) the scientific background and justification for the development of a marine protected area (MPA) in the Weddell Sea planning area. In accordance with the recommendations by WG-EMM-14 (SC-CAMLR-XXIII, Annex 6), this was done in three separate documents (Part A-C). WG-EMM-16/01 (Part A) sets out the general context of the establishment of CCAMLR-MPAs and provides the background information on the Weddell Sea MPA (WSMPA) planning area; WG-EMM-16/02 (Part B) informs on the data retrieval process and WG-EMM-16/03 (Part C) describes the methods and the results of the scientific analyses as well as the development of the objectives and finally of the borders for the WSMPA. Earlier versions of Parts A-C were already presented at the meetings of EMM and SC-CAMLR in 2015. The Scientific Committee did recognise that the body of science of the background documents (SC-CAMLR-XXXIV/BG/15, BG/16, BG/17) provides the necessary foundation for developing a WSMPA proposal (SC-CAMLR-XXXIV, § 5.11). Here, the authors present the final version of Part A to WG EMM. Part A has undergone final editorial corrections in the 2015/16 intersessional period and contains (i) a synopsis in terms of the establishment of MPAs (chapter 1); (ii) a description of the boundaries of the WSMPA planning area (chapter 2); (iii) a comprehensive, yet succinct, general description of the Weddell Sea ecosystem (chapter 3); (iv) and finally a guidance regarding the future work beyond the development of the scientific basis for the evaluation of a WSMPA (chapter 4).

We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation, ice shelf melting, and mesh resolution. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rates anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions, ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Sensitivity to mesh resolution is spurious, and we find that sub-kilometer resolution is needed along most regions of the grounding line to avoid systematic under-estimates of the retreat rate, although resolution requirements are more stringent in some regions – for example the Amundsen Sea Embayment – than others – such as the Möller and Institute ice streams.

The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. Basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we attempt to estimate the uncertainty range of future ice discharge from Antarctica by combining uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response. The uncertainty in the global mean temperature increase is obtained from historically constrained emulations with the MAGICC-6.0 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model. The oceanic forcing is derived from scaling of the subsurface with the atmospheric warming from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. The dynamic ice-sheet response is derived from linear response functions for basal ice-shelf melting for four different Antarctic drainage regions using experiments from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. The resulting uncertainty range for the historic Antarctic contribution to global sealevel rise from 1992 to 2011 agrees with the observed contribution for this period if we use the three ice-sheet models with an explicit representation of ice-shelf dynamics and account for the time-delayed warming of the oceanic subsurface compared to the surface air temperature. The median of the additional ice loss for the 21st century is computed to 0.07m (66% range: 0.02–0.14 m; 90% range: 0.0–0.23 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario and 0.09m (66% range: 0.04–0.21 m; 90% range: 0.01–0.37 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5. Assuming no time delay between the atmospheric warming and the oceanic subsurface, these values in

Mesoscale model simulations were conducted for the Weddell Sea region for the autumn and winter periods of 2008 using a high-resolution, limited-area, non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. A sea ice–ocean model was run with enhanced horizontal resolution and high-resolution forcing data of the atmospheric model. Daily passive thermal and microwave satellite data was used to derive the polynya area in the Weddell Sea region. The focus of the study is on the formation of polynyas in the coastal region of Coats Land, which is strongly affected by katabatic flows. The polynya areas deduced from two independent remote sensing methods and data sources show good agreement, while the results of the sea ice simulation show some weaknesses. Linkages between the pressure gradient force composed of a katabatic and a synoptic component, offshore wind regimes and polynya area are identified. It is shown that the downslope surface offshore wind component of Coats Land is the main forcing factor for polynya dynamics, which is mainly steered by the offshore pressure gradient force, where the katabatic force is the dominant term. We find that the synoptic pressure gradient is opposed to the katabatic force during major katabatic wind events.

The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change still results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. While ice discharge can alter through a number of processes, basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major if not the major cause for possible additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we derive dynamic ice-sheet response functions for basal ice-shelf melting using experiments carried out within the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. As used here these response functions provide separate contributions for four different Antarctic drainage regions. Under the assumptions of linear-response theory we project future ice-discharge for each model, each region and each of the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) using oceanic temperatures from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP-5, and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. Uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-model differences is combined into an uncertainty range of future Antarctic ice-discharge induced from basal ice-shelf melt. The additional ice-loss (Table 6) is clearly scenario-dependent and results in a median of 0.07 m (66%-range: 0.04–0.10 m; 90%-range: −0.01–0.26 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 scenario and yields 0.1 m (66%-range: 0.06–0.14 m; 90%-range: −0.01–0.45 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5. If only models with an explicit representation of ice-shelves are taken into account the scenario dependence remains and the values change to: 0.05 m (66%-range: 0.03–0.08 m) for RCP-2.6 and 0.07 m (66%-range: 0.04–0.11 m) for RCP-8.5. These results were obtained using a time delay between the surface warming signal and the subsurface oceanic warming as observed in the CMIP-5 models. Without this time delay the

Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has been a major contributor to sea level change in the recent past. Global and regional sea level variations caused by melting of the GIS are investigated with the finite element sea-ice ocean model (FESOM). We consider changes of local density (steric effects), mass inflow into the ocean, redistribution of mass, and gravitational effects. Five melting scenarios are simulated, where mass losses of 100, 200, 500, and 1000 Gt/yr are converted to a continuous volume flux that is homogeneously distributed along the coast of Greenland south of 75°N. In addition, a scenario of regional melt rates is calculated from daily ice melt characteristics. The global mean sea level modeled with FESOM increases by about 0.3 mm/yr if 100 Gt/yr of ice melts, which includes eustatic and steric sea level change. In the global mean the steric contribution is one order of magnitude smaller than the eustatic contribution. Regionally, especially in the North Atlantic, the steric contribution leads to strong deviations from the global mean sea level change. The modeled pattern mainly reflects the structure of temperature and salinity change in the upper ocean. Additionally, small steric variations occur due to local variability in the heat exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. The mass loss has also affects on the gravitational attraction by the ice sheet, causing spatially varying sea level change mainly near the GIS, but also at greater distances. This effect is accounted for by using Green's functions.

The Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model (FESOM) has been augmented by an ice-shelf component with a three-equation system for diagnostic computation of boundary layer temperature and salinity. Ice-shelf geometry and global ocean bathymetry have been derived from the RTopo-1 dataset. A global domain with a triangular mesh and a hybrid vertical coordinate is used. To evaluate sub-ice-shelf circulation and melt rates for present-day climate, the model is forced with NCEP reanalysis data. Basal mass fluxes are mostly realistic, with maximum melt rates in the deepest parts near the grounding lines and marine ice formation in the northern sectors of the Ross and Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelves, Antarctica. Total basal mass loss for the ten largest ice shelves reflects the importance of the Amundsen Sea ice shelves; the Getz Ice Shelf is shown to be a major meltwater contributor to the Southern Ocean. Despite their modest melt rates, the ‘cold water’ ice shelves in the Weddell Sea are still substantial sinks of continental ice in Antarctica. Discrepancies between the model and observations can partly be attributed to deficiencies in the forcing data or to (sometimes unavoidable) smoothing of ice-shelf and bottom topographies.

Little is known about errors in the atmospheric forcings of large-scale sea ice-ocean models around Antarctica. These forcings involve atmospheric reanalyses, typically those from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center from Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR), climatologies, and empirical parameterizations of atmosphere-ice heat and radiation fluxes. In the present paper, we evaluate the atmospheric forcing fields of sea ice models in the Southern Ocean using meteorological and radiation observations from two drifting station experiments over Antarctic sea ice. These are Sea Ice Mass Balance in the Antarctic (SIMBA, Bellingshausen Sea, October 2007) and ISPOL (Ice Station POLarstern,Weddell Sea, December 2004). For the comparison, it is assumed that those point measurements are representative of the whole model grid cell they were collected in. Analysis suggests that the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses have relatively low biases for variables that are assimilated by the system (temperature, winds and humidity) and are less accurate for those which are not (cloud fraction and radiation fluxes). The main deficiencies are significant day-to-day errors in air temperature (root-mean-square error 1.4–3.8 1C) and a 0.2–0.6 g/kgmean overestimation in NCEP-NCAR specific humidity. In addition, associated with an underestimation of cloud fraction, NCEP-NCAR shortwave radiation features a large positive bias (43–109W/m2 ), partly compensated by a 20–45 W/m2 negative bias in longwave radiation. Those biases can be drastically reduced by using empirical formulae of radiation fluxes and climatologies of relative humidity and cloud cover. However, this procedure leads to a loss of day-to-day and interannual variability in the radiation fields. We provide technical recommendations on how the radiation forcing should be handled to reduce sea ice model forcing errors. The various errors in forcing fields found here should not hide the great value of atmospheric reanalyses for t

Sub-ice shelf circulation and freezing/melting rates in ocean general circulation models depend critically on an accurate and consistent representation of cavity geometry. Existing global or pan-Antarctic data sets have turned out to contain various inconsistencies and inaccuracies. The goal of this work is to compile independent regional fields into a global data set. We use the S-2004 global 1-min bathymetry as the backbone and add an improved version of the BEDMAP topography (ALBMAP bedrock topography) for an area that roughly coincides with the Antarctic continental shelf. The position of the merging line is individually chosen in different sectors in order to get the best out of each data set. High-resolution gridded data for ice shelf topography and cavity geometry of the Amery, Fimbul, Filchner-Ronne, Larsen C and George VI Ice Shelves, and for Pine Island Glacier are carefully merged into the ambient ice and ocean topographies. Multibeam survey data for bathymetry in the former Larsen B cavity and the southeastern Bellingshausen Sea have been obtained from the data centers of Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), gridded, and blended into the existing bathymetry map. The resulting global 1-min topography data set (RTopo-1) contains maps for upper and lower ice surface heights, bedrock topography, and consistent masks for open ocean, grounded ice, floating ice, and bare land surface.

In recent years, the international “Southern Elephant seals as Oceanographic Samplers” (SEaOS) project has deployed miniaturized conductivity-temperature-depth satellite-relayed data loggers (CTD-SRDL) on elephant seals 1) to study their winter foraging ecology in relation to oceanographic conditions, and 2) to collect hydrographic data from polar regions, which are otherwise sparsely sampled. We summarize here the main results that have been published in both science components since 2003/2004. Instrumented southern elephant seals visit different regions within the Southern Ocean (frontal zones, continental shelf, and/or ice covered areas) and forage in a variety of different water masses (e.g. Circumpolar Deep Water upwelling regions, High Salinity Shelf Water), depending on their geographic distribution. Adult females and juvenile males from Kerguelen Is. forage pelagically in frontal zones of the Southern Indian Ocean, while adult males forage benthically over the Kerguelen Plateau and the Antarctic Continental Shelf, with the two groups feeding at different trophic levels as shown by stable isotopes analysis. Oceanographic studies using the data collected from the seals have, to date, concentrated on circumpolar and regional studies of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) circulation. The temperature and salinity profiles documented by elephant seals at high latitudes, including below sea ice, have permitted quasi-circumpolar mapping of the southernmost fronts of the ACC. By merging conventional data and the high temporal and spatial resolution data collected by seal-borne SRDLs, it has been possible to describe precisely 1) the large-scale features of the ACC in the South Atlantic and its variability; 2) the circulation pattern over the Kerguelen plateau, revealing that the poorly known Fawn Trough concentrates an important proportion of the ACC flow in that region. Seals that foraged in ice covered areas have made eulerian time series available that have a

Comparison of mass anomalies from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to in-situ ocean bottom pressure (OBP) data is complicated by the fact that GRACE estimates are representative for phenomena with scales of hundreds of km, while OBP measurements are pointwise by nature. Simulations with the Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model (FESOM) indicate that on a monthly time scale OBP anomalies are coherent over large areas of complex geometry. A new filtering method for GRACE-derived ocean mass anomalies is obtained by applying these coherence patterns on a regular grid. Time series from OBP recorders all over the world ocean are used for validation. Compared to Gaussian filtering, the pattern-filtering method improves the correlation between GRACE retrievals and in-situ OBP data (max. correlation now 0.87). Land leakage effects are eliminated almost completely. Finer scales can be resolved such that highly variable currents like the Gulf Stream can now be identified.

Polar regions are particularly sensitive to climate change, with the potential for significant feedbacks between ocean circulation, sea ice, and the ocean carbon cycle. However, the difficulty in obtaining in situ data means that our ability to detect and interpret change is very limited, especially in the Southern Ocean, where the ocean beneath the sea ice remains almost entirely unobserved and the rate of sea-ice formation is poorly known. Here, we show that southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) equipped with oceanographic sensors can measure ocean structure and water mass changes in regions and seasons rarely observed with traditional oceanographic platforms. In particular, seals provided a 30-fold increase in hydrographic profiles from the sea-ice zone, allowing the major fronts to be mapped south of 60 degrees S and sea-ice formation rates to be inferred from changes in upper ocean salinity. Sea-ice production rates peaked in early winter (April-May) during the rapid northward expansion of the pack ice and declined by a factor of 2 to 3 between May and August, in agreement with a three-dimensional coupled ocean-sea-ice model. By measuring the high-latitude ocean during winter, elephant seals fill a "blind spot" in our sampling coverage, enabling the establishment of a truly global ocean-observing system.