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In this paper, CSS’s Christine Eriksen, Florian Roth, Linda Maduz and Tim Prior propose a re-examination of the dynamic relationship between affluence and vulnerability —a complex association defined as the Affluence–Vulnerability Interface (AVI). A more nuanced understanding of the AVI can (1) problematize the notion that increasing material affluence necessarily has a mitigating influence on social vulnerability, (2) extend analysis of social vulnerability beyond low-income regions to include affluent contexts and (3) improve understanding of how psychosocial characteristics influence people’s vulnerability. In diesem Papier schlagen die CSS Forscher Christine Eriksen, Florian Roth, Linda Maduz und Tim Prior eine erneute Untersuchung der dynamischen Beziehung zwischen Wohlstand und Verwundbarkeit vor — eine komplexe Verbindung, die als Affluence-Vulnerability Interface (AVI) definiert wird. Ein nuancierteres Verständnis der AVI kann (1) die Vorstellung problematisieren, dass zunehmender materieller Wohlstand notwendigerweise einen mildernden Einfluss auf die soziale Verwundbarkeit hat, (2) die Analyse der sozialen Verwundbarkeit über einkommensschwache Regionen hinaus auf wohlhabende Kontexte ausdehnen und (3) das Verständnis dafür verbessern, wie psychosoziale Merkmale die Verwundbarkeit von Menschen beeinflussen. ISSN:0165-0009 ISSN:1573-1480

A common assertion in discussions of flooding is that risk perception is critical and is linked to risk-mitigating behavior. Furthermore, many assert that the adverse effects of floods could be reduced by changes in risk communication, thereby influencing risk perception to foster mitigating behavior. We argue that these assertions are based on quite questionable underlying assumptions: That stakeholders are generally aware of flood risk, that they have the capacity to engage in disaster risk reduction, and that their actions can be effective. The belief in and policies influenced by these three questionable assertions support, in turn, policies that shift responsibility for flood risk reduction onto individuals and homeowners, without regard for social and spatial justice issues. In contrast, we argue that context matters to understanding the complexity of the relation between flood risk perception and behavior, local power relations, and other constraints and opportunities that affect stakeholders. While the academic community has long played a pivotal role in supporting practical flood risk management, future research should take a more critical perspective on the underlying assumptions and focus on improving coordination across theories, methods, and variables, fostering comparative studies across disciplines, contexts, and scales. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Planning Water Human Water > Water as Imagined and Represented Science of Water > Water Extremes.

Over the past two decades, decision-making in disaster risk management (DRM) has evolved significantly. This has resulted in a re-focus from a predominantly top-down, ‘command and control’ style of management, to the encouragement of ‘people-centred’ approaches and local participation. In this paper we critically explore this transition, particularly examining the teething problems related to the adoption of people-centred approaches, and especially to the transfer of DRM responsibility from the agencies in charge to the private citizens. We review traditional top-down approaches against a backdrop of changing circumstances relevant to disaster risk, and present some background to the international push for people-centred approaches, comparing the key characteristics of the two approaches. Using three case studies, we discuss how the personal responsibilities of citizens are weighed against the responsibilities of local authorities. The examples reveal a complex landscape characterised by insufficient resources at the local level, and lack of willingness among public at risk to share responsibility for disaster risk management with authorities. Moreover, local participation can create situations of conflict between public and private interests. If official authorities are to implement the new people-centred approach, they must better understand residents' perspectives and responsibility expectations, become more competent communicators, and be willing to engage in long-term dialogue with communities. This requires the courage to question existing institutional arrangements, and not only devolve power in DRM, but also relinquish responsibility to citizens. Future research must focus particularly on better understanding the benefits and challenges of shared state and civil responsibility in DRM theory and practice.

Societal prosperity is underpinned by access to the increasingly interdependent resources of minerals and energy. In an era of mineral resource constraints and radical transition in the energy sector, this paper reviews the extent to which a long-term view of production and use is adopted in both fields. A long-term view including the mineral-energy nexus is deemed to be necessary (although not sufficient) for managing future resource constraints and energy transitions. Alarmingly, it identifies that the future of minerals resources and production is generally considered 5-10 years ahead rather than several decades or more as for energy. Additionally, the sectors are generally studied independently, rather than with a focus on the nexus. With these findings as evidence of an unaddressed problem, the paper then focusses on the current forces for change in the minerals industry: namely community drivers regarding social licence to operate, new technologies and consumer and government drivers on responsible minerals. As discussions of sustainable development become displaced by the emerging discourse of ‘responsible’ minerals, what is adopted and discarded? Whilst responsible minerals considers chain-of-custody, it does not adopt a long-term view and overlooks the mineral-energy nexus. Using three illustrative cases at the nexus of (i) rare earths-renewables, (ii) coal-steel and (iii) uranium nuclear we extend the theoretical discussion on ‘responsible’ with a range of contemporary examples from the perspectives of producing (Australia) and consuming countries (Japan, Switzerland) and propose a research agenda for an expanded notion of responsible minerals which recognises the complexity of the mineral-energy nexus and connects it to progressing sustainable futures.

The consequences of wildfires are felt in susceptible communities around the globe on an annual basis. Climate change predictions in places like the south-east of Australia and western United States suggest that wildfires may become more frequent and more intense with global climate change. Compounding this issue is progressive urban development at the peri-urban fringe (wildland–urban interface), where continued infrastructure development and demographic changes are likely to expose more people and property to this potentially disastrous natural hazard. Preparing well in advance of the wildfire season is seen as a fundamental behaviour that can both reduce community wildfire vulnerability and increase hazard resilience – it is an important element of adaptive capacity that allows people to coexist with the hazardous environment in which they live. We use household interviews and surveys to build and test a substantive model that illustrates how social cohesion influences the decision to prepare for wildfire. We demonstrate that social cohesion, particularly community characteristics like ‘sense of community’ and ‘collective problem solving’, are community-based resources that support both the adoption of mechanical preparations, and the development of cognitive abilities and capacities that reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience to wildfire. We use the results of this work to highlight opportunities to transfer techniques and approaches from natural hazards research to climate change adaptation research to explore how the impacts attributed to the social components of social–ecological systems can be mitigated more effectively.

Building on a recognised information-to-action gap in wildfire risk communication, this paper examines what being physically and mentally ‘well prepared’ actually means to wildfire agency staff and volunteers in charge of disseminating risk information. Using the results of an open-ended survey conducted in southeast Australia, we examine how a set of preparedness messages is interpreted. The paper demonstrates that the concept of wildfire preparedness is ambiguous, and that being ‘well prepared’ is a complex mix of practical and mental preparedness measures. Many of the individual interpretations of preparedness messages are found to not align with the official outlined intent. In particular, we argue that the lack of a clear definition and engagement with ‘mental preparedness’ in wildfire risk communication has resulted in an inability to clearly relate to, and articulate what it means to be both physically and mentally prepared for wildfire. The survey illustrates how even well-trained wildfire management professionals and volunteers misinterpret relatively uncontested risk messages, and we describe how these misinterpretations might result in dangerous decisions if wildfire threat is realised. The work also reveals three key themes that define different aspects of mental preparedness: emotional control, understanding psychological strain, and the ability to know when and how to implement a wildfire plan. The paper concludes that wildfire risk communication efforts can be improved through heightened attention to the disseminators’ as well as the recipients’ understanding, explanation and adoption of risk information.

Minerals and metals are finite resources, and recent evidence suggests that for many, primary production is becoming more difficult and more expensive. Yet these resources are fundamentally important for society—they support many critical services like infrastructure, telecommunications and energy generation. A continued reliance on minerals and metals as service providers in modern society requires dedicated and concerted governance in relation to production, use, reuse and recycling. Lithium provides a good example to explore possible sustainable governance strategies. Lithium is a geochemically scarce metal (being found in a wide range of natural systems, but in low concentrations that are difficult to extract), yet recent studies suggest increasing future demand, particularly to supply the lithium in lithium-ion batteries, which are used in a wide variety of modern personal and commercial technologies. This paper explores interventions for sustainable governance and handling of lithium for two different supply and demand contexts: Australia as a net lithium producer and Switzerland as a net lithium consumer. It focuses particularly on possible nation-specific issues for sustainable governance in these two countries' contexts, and links these to the global lithium supply chain and demand scenarios. The article concludes that innovative business models, like ‘servicizing’ the lithium value chain, would hold sustainable governance advantages for both producer and consumer countries.

Modern societies are characterised by global connectedness and complexity. At the same time society, and the various infrastructures that connect and define it, are understood to be increasingly threatened by unpredictable and uncertain (or unknown) global risks. With this, the conceptualisation and development of resilience has become a dominant, yet enigmatic preoccupation: dominant because it is seen as a fundamental component of devolved proactive approaches to mitigating complex threats whatever their nature; and enigmatic because its practical application is as diverse as its definitions. Today, however, a significant challenge still lies in the accurate characterisation and quantification of resilience, and thus also the ability to provide a systematic basis for policy-making in resilience-based threat mitigation. This article examines the methodological challenges of operationalising resilience. It draws on several cases that detail ways of measuring resilience, reflecting on the development, bene...

Australia is a major supplier of minerals globally, but the country’s ability to meet both projections for future demand and sustainability goals is hampered by a range of environmental and social issues associated with traditional modes of minerals production. At a time when society’s expectations for the environmental and social performance of companies are becoming more stringent, mineral production in Australia has become more difficult and expensive – issues that are often disguised by (and overlooked as a result of) high resource prices and an outwardly buoyant economy. Difficulty and expense are characterised not by the absence of resources, but by declining ore grades, substantially increasing mine waste, rising energy consumption, and falling multi-factor productivity. Together, social changes and production challenges are reinforcing the recognition that business as usual cannot deliver on the sustainability imperative. Technological development has been an important focus in seeking to address many of the challenges facing the Australian minerals industry, but this alone has not been adequate, and may not be the panacea of the future. Research exploring the future of minerals production and its implications for society and the economy must be accompanied by foresight into the long-term strategic challenges, future scenarios, social, economic and regional contexts where these implications will play out. This paper documents how foresight methods were used to facilitate a conversation between mining industry stakeholders and experts on the future of the industry in Australia, and to develop a shared vision of the future and recommendations for how to achieve a sustainable mining industry and one which contributes to a sustainable Australian economy. We articulate the implications of sustainability for the mining sector in Australia with respect to a vision to 2040, and discuss mechanisms to secure long-term national benefit for Australia from its finite mineral resources. We demonstrate that realising benefits from a mineral endowment over several decades requires considered and forward-looking resource governance, including a National Minerals Strategy. It should be characterised by innovative policy decisions and business models that engage communities, government and the private sector in not only the rhetoric, but also the business of sustainability.

Today's global society is economically, socially and culturally dependent on minerals and metals. While metals are recyclable, terrestrial mineral deposits are by definition ‘non-renewable’ over human timescales and their stocks are thus finite. This raises the spectre of ‘peak minerals’ – the time at which production from terrestrial ores can no longer rise to meet demand and where a maximum (peak) production occurs. Peak minerals prompts a focus on the way minerals can be sustainably used in the future to ensure the services they provide to global society can be maintained. As peak minerals approaches (and is passed in some cases), understanding and monitoring the dynamics of primary mineral production, recycling and dematerialisation, in the context of national and global discussions about mineral resources demand and the money earned from their sale, will become essential for informing and establishing mechanisms for sustainable mineral governance and use efficiency into the future. Taking a cross-scale approach, this paper explores the economic and productivity impacts of peak minerals, and how changes in the mineral production profile are influenced not only by technological and scarcity factors, but also by environmental and social constraints. Specifically we examine the impacts of peak minerals in Australia, a major global minerals supplier, and the consequences for the Asia-Pacific region, a major destination for Australia's minerals. This research has profound implications for local and regional/global sustainability of mineral and metal use. The focus on services is useful for encouraging discussion of transitions in how such services can be provided in a future more sustainable economy, when mineral availability is constrained. The research also begins to address the question of how we approach the development of strategies to maximise returns from mineral wealth over generations.

The concept of 'peaks' in the production of natural resources has attracted attention in the area of energy production, with concerns about 'peak oil' driving recent research and investment in alternative sources of energy. There are fundamental and important differences between a peak in the production of oil and peaks in the production of metalliferous minerals, but in both cases production changes from 'easier and less expensive' early in a resource's life to 'difficult and expensive' as time progresses. The impacts of this change in production circumstances require critical consideration in the governance of national and sub-national mineral endowments. This paper develops a framework for evaluating the impacts of changing patterns of mineral production. The framework considers three criteria: availability of a resource (considering its geological characteristics and geographical distribution); society's addiction to the resource (its centrality and criticality to economic, social and environmental systems); and the possibility of finding alternatives (whether the resource can be substituted or recovered). An initial assessment against these criteria provides an overview of how a production peak might affect the production of minerals in Australia and the impacts that this might have on the Australian economy. Assessing important resources against these three criteria will be imperative in future considerations regarding the roles minerals and metals play as service providers in our economic, social and environmental systems. Additionally, this analysis should prompt a reassessment of the value of minerals beyond economic measures. Indicators derived from these criteria will inform strategies that can address future changes in production characteristics - meeting challenges with strong governance, and realising opportunities with proactive policy. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Today, technical natural hazard management represents the central mode of governance for coping with natural and man-made hazards in many parts of the world. In most European states, it is primarily organized through specialized agencies at the national or sub-national level, which analyse and assess risks to society, organize preventive and responsive measures and inform the public. In recent years, however, this mode of security governance has been increasingly challenged by new approaches to handling hazards that emphasize decentralized, self-organizing structures for flexible responses to challenges posed by complexity and unpredictability (see also Hollis in this volume). Resilience is an oft-used concept (and sometimes buzzword) arguably lying at the centre of this transformation in civil security that seems to cherry-pick elements of natural hazard management’s long and varied history. This transformation has been triggered by several obvious failures and shortcomings of technical natural hazard management, in particular to effectively prevent or mitigate major large-scale, cascading disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011 (which resulted in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power plant meltdown).

International audience; During the past decade the concept of ecosystem services (ES), the benefits that nature provides to humans, has increasingly been embraced as a promising avenue towards sustainable resource management. Initially pitched to incentive-based biodiversity conservation, the ES concept is now being applied to a diversity of environmental resources in a multitude of policy, planning and management contexts. In the context of water planning, the ES concept is increasingly rivalling the Integrated Water Resource Management paradigm. Despite the omnipresence of the ES language, significant challenges remain in terms of ES implementation and governance. This paper reports on lessons learnt from the collaborative development of an ES Framework within the context of statutory water allocation planning in Australia. The Framework consists of seven components, three of which match key planning steps in existing Australian statutory water planning guidelines. Central to the Framework is a benefits table for water planning. The benefits table is based on the ‘ES cascade’ model, a metaphor which makes clear distinctions between ecosystem processes, functions, services, benefits, values and beneficiaries. The benefits table is intended for bidirectional use, confronting demands of water system beneficiaries with the biophysical mechanisms that render the services. The Framework is innovative in three ways. First, it was jointly designed with Australia’s national water agency (the National Water Commission), based on statutory guidelines for water planning and management. Second, it addresses a statutory requirement for water planning processes to better consider public benefits from aquatic systems, thus providing a direct incentive for water planners to engage with the Framework. Third, the Framework emphasizes the need for comprehensive, a-priori analysis of ES beneficiaries. Comprehensive evaluation of the ES Framework will be required to document successful applications and share lessons learnt amongst the water planning and ES research communities.

© 2012 by the authors. licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Resource criticality arising from peak production of primary ores is explored in this paper. We combine the Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model of Mohr [1] to project future resource production for selected commodities in Australia, namely iron and coal which together represent around 50% of the value of total Australian exports as well as copper, gold and lithium. The projections (based on current estimates of ultimately recoverable reserves) indicate that peak production in Australia would occur for lithium in 2015; for gold in 2021; for copper in 2024; for iron in 2039 and for coal in 2060. The quantitative analysis is coupled with the criticality framework for peak minerals of Mason et al. [2] comprising (i) resource availability, (ii) societal resource addiction to commodity use, and (iii) alternatives such as dematerialization or substitution to assess the broader dimension s of peak minerals production for Australia.

Phosphorus is a critical element on which all life depends. Global crop production depends on fertilisers derived from phosphate rock to maintain high crop yields. Population increase, changing dietary preferences towards more meat and dairy products, and the continuing intensification of global agriculture supporting this expansion will place increasing pressure on an uncertain, but finite supply of high-quality phosphate rock. Growing concern about phosphorus scarcity and security, coupled with the environmental impact of phosphorus pollution, has encouraged an increase in research exploring how phosphorus is used and lost in the food system - from mine to field to fork. An assessment of recent phosphorus flows analyses at different geographical scales identifies the key phosphorus 'hotspots', for example within the mining, agriculture or food processing sectors, where efficiency and reuse can be substantially improved through biotechnological approaches coupled with policy changes. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Mining in Australia is booming. Notwithstanding, production conditions are progressively transitioning from the mining of "cheaper, easily accessible and higher quality ores" to "lower grade, more remote, complex and expensive ores". Sustainability discussions in the minerals industry have largely sought to improve the social and environmental performance of individual operations, including planning for closure. However, the national implications of a change in the circumstances underpinning the current prosperity of mining are underexplored. This paper uses a peak minerals metaphor to map "life-of-resource" environmental and social considerations, pre- and post-peak production, at local and national scales. An examination of how the social and environmental impacts change, over the life of a resource's extraction, is used to inform strategies for the role of technological and policy innovation in underpinning long-term national benefit from minerals in Australia. © Institution of Engineers Australia, 2012.

Communicating the need to prepare well in advance of the wildfire season is a strategic priority for wildfire management agencies worldwide. However, there is considerable evidence to suggest that although these agencies invest significant effort towards this objective in the lead up to each wildfire season, landholders in at-risk locations often remain under-prepared. One reason for the poor translation of risk information materials into actual preparation may be attributed to the diversity of people now inhabiting wildfire-prone locations in peri-urban landscapes. These people hold widely varying experiences, beliefs, attitudes and values relating to wildfire, which influence their understanding and interpretation of risk messages – doing so within the constraints of their individual contexts. This paper examines the diversity of types of local environmental knowledge (LEK) present within wildfire-prone landscapes affected by amenity-led in-migration in south-east Australia. It investigates the ways people learn and form LEK of wildfire, and how this affects the ability of at-risk individuals to interpret and act on risk communication messages. We propose a practical framework that complements existing risk education mechanisms with engagement and interaction techniques (agency–community and within community) that can utilise LEK most effectively and facilitate improved community-wide learning about wildfire and wildfire preparedness.

Reply to Spacks, Patricia Meyer. “Presidential Address 1994: Reality-Our Subject and Discipline.” PMLA. 1995 May; 110(3): 350-57.