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Educational systems that separate students into curriculum tracks later may place less emphasis on socioeconomic family background and allow individuals' personal skills and interests more time to manifest. We tested whether postponing tracking from age 11 to 16 results in stronger genetic prediction of education across a population, exploiting the natural experiment of the Finnish comprehensive school reform between 1972 and 1977. The association between polygenic score of education and achieved education strengthened after the reform by one-third among men and those from low-educated families. We observed no evidence for reform effect among women or those from high-educated families. The first cohort experiencing the new system had the strongest increases. From the perspective of genetic prediction, the school reform promoted equality of opportunity and optimal allocation of human capital. The results also suggest that turbulent circumstances, including puberty or ongoing restructuring of institutional practices, may strengthen genetic associations in education.

Abstract Background Typhoid fever causes nearly 110,000 deaths among 9.24 million cases globally and disproportionately affects developing countries. As a control measure in such regions, typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) are recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). We present here the protocol of a cluster randomised vaccine trial to assess the impact of introducing TyphiBEV® vaccine to those between 1 and 30 years of age in a high-burden setting. Methods The primary objective is to determine the relative and absolute rate reduction of symptomatic, blood-culture-confirmed S. Typhi infection among participants vaccinated with TyphiBEV® in vaccine clusters compared with the unvaccinated participants in non-vaccine clusters. The study population is residents of 30 wards of Vellore (a South Indian city) with participants between the ages of 1 and 30 years who provide informed consent. The wards will be divided into 60 contiguous clusters and 30 will be randomly selected for its participants to receive TyphiBEV® at the start of the study. No placebo/control is planned for the non-intervention clusters, which will receive the vaccine at the end of the trial. Participants will not be blinded to their intervention. Episodes of typhoid fever among participants will be captured via stimulated, passive fever surveillance in the area for 2 years after vaccination, which will include the most utilised healthcare facilities. Observers blinded to the participants’ intervention statuses will record illness details. Relative and absolute rate reductions will be calculated at the end of this surveillance and used to estimate vaccine effectiveness. Discussion The results from our trial will allow countries to make better-informed decisions regarding the TCV that they will roll-out and may improve the global supplies and affordability of the vaccines. Trial registration Clinical Trials Registry of India (CTRI) CTRI/2022/03/041314. Prospectively registered on 23 March 2022 ( https://ctri.nic.in/Clinicaltrials/pmaindet2.php?trialid=62548&EncHid=&userName=vellore%20typhoid ). CTRI collects the full WHO Trial Registration Data Set.

Cél: Az Interpol az elmúlt 8–9 évben számos reformon ment keresztül. Miközben a szervezet átláthatósága és elszámoltathatósága javult, a pénzügyek, a technológia, az Interpol ügyeit ellenőrző független bizottság (CCF) és a felső vezetők sokszínűsége további reformokat igényel. A cikk célja, hogy megvizsgálja, miért kell az Interpolnak ezeket a kérdéseket rövid távon prioritásként kezelni. Módszertan: A cikk áttekinti az Interpol közelmúltbeli sajtóközleményeit és közgyűlési határozatainak eredményeit, hogy továbbfejlessze a szervezet tevékenységeinek további reformjait. A cikk a nem kormányzati szervezetek és más érdekelt felek által készített anyagok áttekintését is tartalmazza. Megállapítások: Az Interpolnak példátlan kihívásokkal kell szembenéznie egy összetett globális környezetben. Ahhoz, hogy ebben a komplexitásban sikeresen eligazodjon, három létfontosságú működési területtel kell foglalkoznia. Először is át kell alakítania költségvetését és biztosítani kell a megnövelt állandó finanszírozást, hogy lehetővé tegye informatikai infrastruktúrájának megújítását. Másodszor, meg kell reformálnia a CCF-et, amely a vörös értesítések folyamatos kibocsátásának létfontosságú eszköze. Harmadszor, a szervezetnek foglalkoznia kell a vezetői sokféleségben mutatkozó hiányosságokkal. Érték: Az Interpol jelenlegi problémáinak átfogóbb megértése végső soron segíteni fogja a politikai döntéshozókat. A szervezet költségvetési struktúráiban rejlő gyengeségek megértése segíti a kormányokat az alternatív finanszírozási modellek mérlegelésében. Az Interpolnak élen kell járnia a bűnüldöző szervek, köztük a határőrizeti szervek számára nyújtott világelső információs megoldások kifejlesztésében. Végezetül a szervezetnek mind a 195 tagország támogatására szüksége van ahhoz, hogy továbbra is nemzetközi legitimitással rendelkezzen a kulcsfontosságú politikai fórumokon. A felsővezetői képviselet létfontosságú elem.

Aim: INTERPOL has undergone a series of reforms in the past 8–9 years. Whilst improving the transparency and accountability of the organisation, the areas of finance, technology, the CCF and diversity of the senior executive require further reform. The article aims to further explore why these issues should be a priority for INTERPOL in the short term. Methodology: The article reviews recent INTERPOL news releases and outcomes of recent General Assembly resolutions to further develop the case for further reforms of INTERPOL activities. A review of material generated by NGO’s and other interested parties is also included. Findings: INTERPOL faces unprecedented challenges in a complex global environment. To successfully navigate this complexity, INTERPOL will need addressing three vital areas of operation. First, INTERPOL will need to restructure its budget and secure increased permanent funding to enable the renewal of its information technology infrastructure. Second, it needs to reform the CCF as a vital enabler for the continued issuance of red notices. Third, INTERPOL will have to address these shortcomings in its senior executive diversity. Value: A more comprehensive understanding of the issues that INTERPOL currently faces will ultimately assist policy makers. The understanding of the inherent weakness in the INTERPOL budget structures will assist governments to consider alternative funding models. Similarly, INTERPOL is required to be at the forefront of developing world leading information solutions to law enforcement including border agencies. Lastly, INTERPOL requires the support of all 195 member countries to continue to have international legitimacy in key policy forums. Senior executive representation constitutes a vital component.

Abstract Adjustment for baseline covariates in randomized trials has been shown to lead to gains in power and can protect against chance imbalances in covariates. For continuous covariates, there is a risk that the the form of the relationship between the covariate and outcome is misspecified when taking an adjusted approach. Using a simulation study focusing on individually randomized trials with small sample sizes, we explore whether a range of adjustment methods are robust to misspecification, either in the covariate–outcome relationship or through an omitted covariate–treatment interaction. Specifically, we aim to identify potential settings where G-computation, inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), augmented inverse probability of treatment weighting (AIPTW) and targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) offer improvement over the commonly used analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). Our simulations show that all adjustment methods are generally robust to model misspecification if adjusting for a few covariates, sample size is 100 or larger, and there are no covariate–treatment interactions. When there is a non-linear interaction of treatment with a skewed covariate and sample size is small, all adjustment methods can suffer from bias; however, methods that allow for interactions (such as G-computation with interaction and IPTW) show improved results compared to ANCOVA. When there are a high number of covariates to adjust for, ANCOVA retains good properties while other methods suffer from under- or over-coverage. An outstanding issue for G-computation, IPTW and AIPTW in small samples is that standard errors are underestimated; they should be used with caution without the availability of small-sample corrections, development of which is needed. These findings are relevant for covariate adjustment in interim analyses of larger trials.

Abstract Background There is substantial interest in the adaptation and application of so-called machine learning approaches to prognostic modelling of censored time-to-event data. These methods must be compared and evaluated against existing methods in a variety of scenarios to determine their predictive performance. A scoping review of how machine learning methods have been compared to traditional survival models is important to identify the comparisons that have been made and issues where they are lacking, biased towards one approach or misleading. Methods We conducted a scoping review of research articles published between 1 January 2000 and 2 December 2020 using PubMed. Eligible articles were those that used simulation studies to compare statistical and machine learning methods for risk prediction with a time-to-event outcome in a medical/healthcare setting. We focus on data-generating mechanisms (DGMs), the methods that have been compared, the estimands of the simulation studies, and the performance measures used to evaluate them. Results A total of ten articles were identified as eligible for the review. Six of the articles evaluated a method that was developed by the authors, four of which were machine learning methods, and the results almost always stated that this developed method’s performance was equivalent to or better than the other methods compared. Comparisons were often biased towards the novel approach, with the majority only comparing against a basic Cox proportional hazards model, and in scenarios where it is clear it would not perform well. In many of the articles reviewed, key information was unclear, such as the number of simulation repetitions and how performance measures were calculated. Conclusion It is vital that method comparisons are unbiased and comprehensive, and this should be the goal even if realising it is difficult. Fully assessing how newly developed methods perform and how they compare to a variety of traditional statistical methods for prognostic modelling is imperative as these methods are already being applied in clinical contexts. Evaluations of the performance and usefulness of recently developed methods for risk prediction should be continued and reporting standards improved as these methods become increasingly popular.

Professional service firms apply specialist knowledge to create customised solutions to client problems. In their work, teams of professionals undertake projects in which clients may be closely involved in co-creating solutions. However, we know little about the conditions under which client involvement contributes to better performance. We examine the direct and conditional contribution client involvement can make to project success and propose team bonding capital as a moderator. We conduct multi-level analysis of data from 58 project managers and 171 consultants nested in project teams. We find a positive impact of client involvement on both team performance and team member idea creativity. Team bonding capital moderates the relationships client involvement has with both team performance and individual member idea creativity, where the impact of client involvement is greater when team bonding capital is high. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.

Background: Higher BMI in childhood is associated with emotional and behavioural problems, but these associations may not be causal. Results of previous genetic studies imply causal effects but may reflect influence of demography and the family environment. Methods: This study used data on 40,949 8-year-old children and their parents from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) and Medical Birth Registry of Norway (MBRN). We investigated the impact of BMI on symptoms of depression, anxiety, and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) at age 8. We applied within-family Mendelian randomization, which accounts for familial effects by controlling for parental genotype. Results: Within-family Mendelian randomization estimates using genetic variants associated with BMI in adults suggested that a child’s own BMI increased their depressive symptoms (per 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI, beta = 0.26 S.D., CI = −0.01,0.52, p=0.06) and ADHD symptoms (beta = 0.38 S.D., CI = 0.09,0.63, p=0.009). These estimates also suggested maternal BMI, or related factors, may independently affect a child’s depressive symptoms (per 5 kg/m2 increase in maternal BMI, beta = 0.11 S.D., CI:0.02,0.09, p=0.01). However, within-family Mendelian randomization using genetic variants associated with retrospectively-reported childhood body size did not support an impact of BMI on these outcomes. There was little evidence from any estimate that the parents’ BMI affected the child’s ADHD symptoms, or that the child’s or parents’ BMI affected the child’s anxiety symptoms. Conclusions: We found inconsistent evidence that a child’s BMI affected their depressive and ADHD symptoms, and little evidence that a child’s BMI affected their anxiety symptoms. There was limited evidence of an influence of parents’ BMI. Genetic studies in samples of unrelated individuals, or using genetic variants associated with adult BMI, may have overestimated the causal effects of a child’s own BMI. Funding: This research was funded by the Health Foundation. It is part of the HARVEST collaboration, supported by the Research Council of Norway. Individual co-author funding: the European Research Council, the South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority, the Research Council of Norway, Helse Vest, the Novo Nordisk Foundation, the University of Bergen, the South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority, the Trond Mohn Foundation, the Western Norway Regional Health Authority, the Norwegian Diabetes Association, the UK Medical Research Council. The Medical Research Council (MRC) and the University of Bristol support the MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit.

Family-based study designs have been applied to resolve confounding by population stratification, dynastic effects and assortative mating in genetic association analyses. Here, Brumpton et al. describe theory and simulations for overcoming such biases in Mendelian randomization through within-family studies.

Background:UC San Diego Health System (UCSDHS) is an academic medical center and integrated care network in the US-Mexico border area of California contiguous to the Mexican Northern Baja region. The COVID-19 pandemic deeply influenced UCSDHS activities as new public health challenges increasingly related to high population density, cross-border traffic, economic disparities, and interconnectedness between cross-border communities, which accelerated development of clinical collaborations between UCSDHS and several border community hospitals – one in the US, two in Mexico – as high volumes of severely ill patients overwhelmed hospitals. Objective:We describe the development, implementation, feasibility, and acceptance of a novel critical care support program in three community hospitals along the US-Mexico border. Methods:We created and instituted a hybrid critical care program involving: 1) in-person activities to perform needs assessments of equipment and supplies and hands-on training and education, and 2) creation of a telemedicine-based (Tele-ICU) service for direct patient management and/or consultative, education-based experiences. We collected performance metrics surrounding adherence to evidence-based practices and staff perceptions of critical care delivery. Findings:In-person intervention phase identified and filled gaps in equipment and supplies, and Tele-ICU program promoted adherence to evidence-based practices and improved staff confidence in caring for critically ill COVID-19 patients at each hospital. Conclusion:A collaborative, hybrid critical care program across academic and community centers is feasible and effective to address cross-cultural public health emergencies.

This paper presents the structure of an encyclopedia-based framework (EbF) in which to develop computer vision systems that incorporate the principles of agile development with focussed knowledge-enhancing information. The novelty of the EbF is that it specifies both the use of drop-in modules, to enable the speedy implementation and modification of systems by the operator, and it incorporates knowledge of the input image-capture devices and presentation preferences. This means that the system includes automated parameter selection and operator advice and guidance. Central to this knowledge-enhanced framework is an encyclopedia that is used to store all information pertaining to the current system operation and can be used by all of the imaging modules and computational runtime components. This ensures that they can adapt to changes within the system or its environment. We demonstrate the implementation of this system over three use cases in computer vision for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) showing how it is easy to control and set up by novice operators utilising simple computational wrapper scripts.

Neighbourhood effects studies have demonstrated an association between area deprivation and smoking behaviour whereby people living in deprived neighbourhoods are more likely to smoke than those in non-deprived neighbourhoods. This evidence though is based largely upon data that ignores long term exposures to neighbourhood contexts and is confounded by neighbourhood selection bias. In this study, we investigate the temporal ordering of exposure to neighbourhood deprivation throughout childhood and whether associations between neighbourhood deprivation and cigarette smoking are due to compositional or contextual neighbourhood effects. Data come from a UK cohort study, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). We use longitudinal measures of neighbourhood deprivation and self-reported smoking behaviour for 2744 children to examine the influence of neighbourhood deprivation on smoking status and smoking heaviness at age 17. Our results demonstrate that children who are born into and grow up in deprived neighbourhoods are up to twice as likely to be smokers at age 17 than those in non-deprived neighbourhoods. These associations are largely due to family socioeconomic position and the intergenerational transmission of smoking behaviour from parents to children; compositional rather than direct contextual 'neighbourhood effects'. Our findings highlight the importance of considering longitudinal exposure to neighbourhood deprivation over cross sectional exposure. In conclusion, we find that it is the family rather than the neighbourhood into which a child is born that determines their smoking behaviour.

ABSTRACT Background Ethnicity is an important factor to be considered in health research because of its association with inequality in disease prevalence and the utilisation of healthcare. Ethnicity recording has been incorporated in primary care electronic health records, and hence is available in large UK primary care databases such as The Health Improvement Network (THIN). However, since primary care data are routinely collected for clinical purposes, a large amount of data that are relevant for research including ethnicity is often missing. A popular approach for missing data is multiple imputation (MI). However, the conventional MI method assuming data are missing at random does not give plausible estimates of the ethnicity distribution in THIN compared to the general UK population. This might be due to the fact that ethnicity data in primary care are likely to be missing not at random. Objectives I propose a new MI method, termed ‘weighted multiple imputation’, to deal with data that are missing not at random in categorical variables. Methods Weighted MI combines MI and probability weights which are calculated using external data sources. Census summary statistics for ethnicity can be used to form weights in weighted MI such that the correct marginal ethnic breakdown is recovered in THIN. I conducted a simulation study to examine weighted MI when ethnicity data are missing not at random. In this simulation study which resembled a THIN dataset, ethnicity was an independent variable in a survival model alongside other covariates. Weighted MI was compared to the conventional MI and other traditional missing data methods including complete case analysis and single imputation. Results While a small bias was still present in ethnicity coefficient estimates under weighted MI, it was less severe compared to MI assuming missing at random. Complete case analysis and single imputation were inadequate to handle data that are missing not at random in ethnicity. Conclusions Although not a total cure, weighted MI represents a pragmatic approach that has potential applications not only in ethnicity but also in other incomplete categorical health indicators in electronic health records.

A report to the UN’s Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) identifies lessons learned from the humanitarian response. Recommendations stress the need for national ownership and leadership of disaster response and recovery, improved coordination, transparent use of resources, civil society engagement and greater emphasis on risk reduction.

Being an urban refugee in Yemen brings far fewer benefitsthan being in a camp – and scarcely more opportunities.

Examination of the common EU asylum standards so far adopted suggests that there is still a long way to go before asylum policy and practice are harmonised and that this process of harmonisation may undermine the principles enshrined in the Refugee Convention.

Displacement and exile have been recurrent and durable phenomena affecting Iraqi society for the last 90 years. The process of forming an Iraqi state from the ruins of the Ottoman empire, which Aristide Zolberg has analyzed as a prime factor generating refugee flows,has been ongoing since 1920. Unfinished endeavours to build a state and nation have been characterized by almost incessant antagonistic claims over the nature of the state and national identity, the exercise of and access to political power, control of natural resources and border sovereignty. Political repression, violent regime change, redefinition of national identity, demographic engineering, and domestic or international armed conflicts have resulted in eviction, deportation, denaturalization, political emigration, and flight from violence. A large part of displacement in Iraq has been internal. But vast numbers of refugees and exiles have also formed a regional and global diaspora extending from Iran, Jordan, Israel, Syria, all the way to such distant emigration countries as New Zealand.

Khartoum’s refusal to allow Jan Egeland, the UNEmergency Relief Coordinator, to visit Darfur – and theexpulsion of the Norwegian Refugee Council from thetroubled region – is further evidence of efforts by theruling National Congress Party (NCP) to contain inter-national engagement in Sudan.

In December 2005 the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) endorsed a ‘cluster’-based mechanism to address gaps in the humanitarian response to IDP and refugee situations. How will it work?

There is a considerable degree of confusion bothamong the humanitarian community and the Afghanpopulation over the various military forces presentin Afghanistan, particularly with regard to theirrespective mandates and humanitarian support/liaison operations.

Several of the preceding articles reflect optimism about humanitarian reform and cite successes of the Cluster Approach. However, many within the humanitarian community – practitioners, donors and analysts – harbour doubts, often not publicly aired, which they shared with FMRduring the preparation of this issue.

The pace of repatriation of Sudanese refugees and return of IDP s to South Sudan has picked up but expectations at the time of the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA CPA) in January 2005 have yet to be realised. With all eyes on Darfur, assistance to sustain returns to South Sudan remains inadequate.

According to Israel the West Bank Barrier is a securitymeasure. Opponents argue that it is set to become ade facto border, pre-empting final status negotiationsbetween Israel and the Palestinians and incorporatingillegal settlements into Israel.

The Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement clearly state that those forced to flee natural disasters are to be regarded as IDPs. However, some agencies in post-tsunami Aceh have been reluctant to use the term andto address protection issues.

“IOM is playing an increasingly prominent role in the reception, assistance, and return not only of migrants, but also of asylum seekers, refugees and the forcibly displaced. Given that IOM does not have a protection mandate for its work with refugees and displaced persons, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch recommend that IOM should refrain from taking a lead role in situations which fall squarely under the protection mandate of other international organizations, such as UNHCR.”1